Humans will destroy ourselves in 100 years with 50% probability | Max Tegmark and Lex Fridman
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- Опубликовано: 4 окт 2024
- Lex Fridman Podcast full episode: • Max Tegmark: AI and Ph...
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Max Tegmark is a physicist and AI researcher at MIT.
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Let's be clear; Even if we colonize Mars, once we make Earth uninhabitable, we're done. A Mars colony won't last. We couldn't even keep people alive for a year in a habitat in the desert. He thinks we can do it in a place colder and with less sunlight than the Arctic? A Mars colony will be dependent on Earth for at least the next hundred years, and humanity doesn't have that kind of time.
It’s all a money game so Elon and all those people can steal money from the company books without being noticed. They have no intentions of colonizing another planet
You have a Locus way of thinking....destroy and move on
I think humans will start exploring our solar system for resources and save the resources on earth for humans.
Saying we dont have even 100 years is quite pessimist thinkin but if u right we fkd😭
@@tc3383 i dont think elon is that greedy he already has so much, money dont motivate him i think elon rly want to colonize mars. I know ppl can be creedy but elon has surpassed that point where he literally can buy anything he wants and his status is cemented
Lex has dethroned JRE with the awesome real science meets sci-fi vibes. Hail Lex, new lord of awesome podcasts.
Fart
As someone who has had spotify premium for years I stopped watching JRE when he switched. What's also insulting about his podcast is the fact that there are ads on it no matter if you pay for spotify or not. Lex is king now and he deserves it.
Loved Joe but I hadn't realised how much of my life I was wasting hearing him say "Strange times" and talk about floatation tanks.
Yeah, Lex as an engineer and being closer to academia than JRE makes him better equipped to talk to guys like Tegmark. Joe seems to think all scientists and researchers are philosophers. And while Lex can get overly romantic at times like Joe, he understands why guests w/ STEM backgrounds he brings on his podcast might shoot him down for it.
King ? Lmfao dethroned ? Not even close
“So your telling me theirs a chance”
-Llyod Christmas
Lmao classic
@@teddylovesit yes. Much needed grammatical corrections. I should have been more aware of my choice of words and how they are used while writing this youtube comment. For this I thank you, for my life is now complete.
This quote should be studied in universities
BRILLIANT!!!!
ROFL!
Lex thinking and speaking: >__
heeheehee
😆
Let's get real, there's no way to predict the demise of humans with any degree of certainty. Human life is quite durable. It will be around for a long, long time.
I agree but the question is in what capacity. I don’t want to be in the Stone Age.
@Erik Burgerhagen Not with absolute certainty but the history of life generally and of human life specifically is that it is very durable. And nuclear weapons don't change that.
I tend to agree
We're not even a blink in time.
Yeah but within that blink, the history is pretty consistent, human life generally, is durable. If you include all life, it's had a pretty good run since its inception. The theory of intelligent life inevitably destroying itself into oblivion is not a good one in my opinion.
I really, really like Max Tegmark! He seems to be one of the most intelligent people that also has a tremendous amount of common sense. All while staying super bro!
Lol he’s a complete creep
We could’ve in the past. We should focus on the ways we can make the world a better place rather than get bogged down by the infinite ways we can’t. It’s too easy to be discouraged.
I know your reasons but that is the stupidest things I've heard think of your family fix up you freakit would be best for our planet
Oh gosh. Yes! I agree with a youtube comment!
@@RapidFireReaper You're part of the problem.
@@RapidFireReaper i was referring to your "bring on the nukes"
Lex keeps pushing this angle because, if I remember correctly, his dad used it as an argument. I think Max was dancing near a great analogy that could've been used when he started talking about smoke detectors. A fire burns down houses of great, loving people too. A supreme accident doesn't really take into account the goodness or evil in a person or species, yet happens nonetheless. Therefore, we should still have smoke detectors, fire extinguishers, and prepare for stopping or mitigating fire damage before it happens.
Life, uh, finds a way
Yeah but humans don’t always
Jurassic park...
@@IanBpa Up untillnow we have. We don't need many to proliferate, have a look at the genetics bottle necks of the past. I've read we were once down to 40 breeding pairs at one point.
Natalie Lambert when that happened to (I think it was) leopards, they all developed horrible inbreeding-related diseases
@@TML0677 way to bring the mood down Obi
I remember being a 10 year old boy in Oct. of 1962 during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Living about 25 miles west of NYC in New Jersey, I could almost see the Manhattan skyline. My 10-year-old brain told me that if I looked toward the east from my backyard window, I might be able to see the double flash of light in time to protect my family. I figured that would give me enough time to get my mom and dad and little brother into the basement and duck and cover before the hydrogen bomb blast wave would strike. That's how scared we young kids were at the time. Not a good way for young kids to be feeling. It hasn't happened, YET, but that fear has never left me.
That’s horrifying
Evil is very easy to quantify, as it tends to be predictable. Good not so much. It tends to pop up in the most unexpected places. When people tell you how the world is going to end, ask yourself if they have a book to sell you.
Love this
Wow. 99.99% of comments I read on RUclips are regurgitated tripe whereas this…. This is dope. Kudos good sir
I love your interviews so much, you’re so badass and you get the coolest people on. I’m so glad I found your podcast.
SAME. I am thankful to Lex for being on youtube. What a gift for us all.
Oh shit here we go again
Come on 50 50 isnt a prediction of any note it's a guess he could flip a coin and claim as much.
It's a valid probability, a one in two predicted chance of occurence.
Agreed.
"In a hundred years, probably." There I fixed your headline. 🤣
Humanity had more than enough chances to turn things around and change for the better. We chose short-term gains and therefore opted for oblivion. May future humans forgive us for our ignorance and sins.
Lex is one of the people I'd love to find myself sitting next to on long flight- assuming he would want to talk of course.
All I'm going to say to all you pessimists in the comments is that if I was alive when nuclear weapons first came into existence, I would have said there's no way we survive the next 50 years, no doubt. Here we are 80 years later
We need more people like Lex.
I used to think pessimistically, if I was asked this question 40 years ago I’d say yes we wouldn’t be here in 100 years time but I think humans have a chance. The threat of global nuclear war has subsided to minimal risk, the next biggest risk is climate change which I think is being dealt with to a certain extend. UK aims to be solely electric by 2035
I will wake up in ten days and have a glass of water with 50% probability
Every recent crisis has been mishandled: 9/11, Katrina, GFC, Climate change, Tech overreach, Pandemic. The system cannot cope with big, global, modern issues.
I’d say 50 years with 100% probability
Now it's like hell, imagine SUPER HELL.
Optimism is hell of a drug
My question is, is there any smart females out there in the universe?
Humans are not going to destroy ourselves. They will come close but even Toba didn't quiet do it. I do expect a nuclear war in this decade but many will survive. Max is an interesting man - I prefer his math stuff ....
I hope I was as optimistic as you
... even highly educated and really smart people are in denial about how far things have already gone
But it's okay, just relax and take a breath, it's almost over
I mean I could say there’s 99% chance we will all die by 2022 but that doesn’t mean much. Probability is not useful for singular events like an extinction.
Absolutely correct. I hate when people assert statistical probabilities to singular events. They’re binary, not statistical.
Iv been kinda have been thinking the same ... The greed of a few is going to the downfall of us all ...
Take responsibility and build the solutiobs your skill sets allow. Love it!
People have been predicting the end of humanity forever. It’s like flying cars... won’t happen anytime soon.
what's the incentive for AI to evolve. we have incentive harmones like dopamine and testosterone etc that push us further as we are never satified
That’s the question I always ask, if AI has no incentive, like pleasure or knowing power, why would they even bother to take over, they could care less. But then ppl say that if they were programmed to become self learning and they for some reason “learn” that humans are a threat , then they would naturally eliminate the threat. I really really hope AI can’t get so advanced to have emotions and fear/love/ pleasure, humans are cruel enough to animals and other humans with fear and emotions, I don’t want to create more misery for things who are capable of feeling, or to cause anger and have the AI attack
The issue Lex’s oft mentioned “competence vs evil” theory is that motivation of creation has rarely been a problem; rather, motivation of whoever controls the created tech.
What the last few years have taught me is that the more we advance our technologies, the more we revert to our animal nature or our id. From this perspective, odds that we destroy ourselves is greater than 50%.
This conclusion that, overall, humanity benefits from technology is a biased conclusion. It takes into consideration only the inputs that are favorable and purposely ignores the ones that are not. Whether the...... quality of life..... improves with the advancement of technology in all its complexity should be the question. What about added stress levels? Do the kinds of employment opportunities give meaning and purpose? Before technology, our waterways, air, food supply were not polluted and bio-engineered. Should how close we are to destroying ourselves be considered? With technology benefits, have we reached diminishing returns? There is no question, some inventions without question did benefit mankind (electricity, washing machine, bicycle etc). Why is it the most simple societies have the most markers for happiness?
Sounds a lot like “ 50% of the time it works every time”
I see most things in life is 50 / 50.
hehe yeah.. it could happen, or not.
It's always 50/50, either it happens or it doesn't.
Oh I think we can accomplish that must sooner if we work hard and play by the rules..
Why am i goddamn addicted to videos of existential crisis
That's extremely optimistic.
Ourselves
English teacher: The fuck you say? *Backhanded*
Noah Yuval Harari. We've found a minor bug in Tegmark's brain
I like those odds!
We have like ten years left.
So are we flipping that coin every year or a hundred flips this year?
I think a single coin or nuke.
Nerds been saying this for 200 years
They only have to be right once!
Don't watch geograhics on RUclips. So many horrible wars. Most every civilization has disappeared.
@@craigpoer true and there are still 8 billion people
@@kevinfoster2163 And once there were only 40 breeding pairs so genetics would suggest. We don't need many of us to start again and again and again. Like cockroaches.
We have been saying this since the beginning of the time. I think it’s a necessary archetypal idea that’s in general good for the society. Just helps us clear out some messes.
No chance anything is happening to us for at least 300 years. It’s just the start of the technological age.
I bet neither of them are doing anything about the problems they say are so grave.
Electric cars, solar at home etc. I’m sure they aren’t doing anything.
Shouldn’t it be “Humans will destroy ‘themselves’”
Just saying
Thought the same thing. I believe that's the right way to way it :)
Welp...been nice knowing you all
I'm sure Joe is very proud of you Lex, you have successfully filled in his shoes. Your podcasts are consistently excellent.
Will destroy theirselves not ourselves!
Lex haven’t watched the movie Oppenheimer. How much did the brilliant Oppenheimer being actually fundamentally good help prevent the nuclear arms race?
That last minute saved by the bell is called faith.
“What had been is what will be, and what has been done is what will be done; and there is nothing new under the sun. Is there a thing of which it is said, “See, this is new?” It has been already, in the ages past. There is no remembrance of former things, nor will there be any remembrance of later things yet to happen among those who will come after.” (Eccl. 1:9-11).
Easily said in 500BCE. I doubt Solomon would have come to the same conclusion in the 21st century.
100% with a 50 year probability, most likely the way we are headed
With this liberal elite controlling everything for evil? Then id agree. Nothing they do is for the good of humanity
Feral hogs invasion,coupled with loss of habitat,and new mutated viruses,sounds like best zombie movie ever.
You forgot Joe Biden as president. Recipe for disaster!
Lex with Charles Eisenstein would be amazing!!
Lex is getting much better at this. Still too much the gushing fan boy at times, but the quality of the discourse once they settle in is usually high.
I find him as interesting as a wet noodle 🍜
Lex’s pyjamas probably have a suit print on em 🤣
We praise soldiers rather than shame them. We maintain government despite its corrupting nature and its horrifying history. So, I'm not optimistic about humanity's future.
Heat > Hunger > War > Survival > Extinction
100 years hmmm I give it less than 75 years
Does anyone feel AGI is possible in the 21st century? I don’t see it happening anytime soon.
The insane positivity of Lex is an enigma to many.
I think Lex is not some "Sunshine and rainbows" guy, Rather, as he says, being russian, they romanticize suffering.
Now if you go through life with that ideology and still push forward! then it will definitely make a strong willed, hard ass man out of anyone. I think that's why he doesn't consider "normal" human sufferings of the current times as too much for Humanity, as a species, to handle!
What you guys think?
Easter islanders did survive, just in reduced numbers and a changed social system. Unfortunately most of them were killed by Spanish slavers.
So you're saying there is a bright side?
humanity wont go away, our civilization will. then it will reform and become something new, starting all over again.
You misspelled 10 and 100 percent
Actually, it’s in the next 50 yrs, with 100% probability. Lex is adorable. 😂
He's unbearably starry-eyed, to put it extremely politely. 😒
I GIVE IT 9 YEARS MAX.
sheesh. hopefully, 100 seems too long tho. can we speed that up?
I would expect pockets of humanity to survive any man made apocalypse and our species would evolve into who knows what.
Thats the plot of the book Galapagos by Vonnegut
Mit Seraffej - There would have to be enough humans left to keep the 440 nuclear power plants running.
Otherwise the planet will be sterilized via ionizing radiation.
@@sweetlou1335 Why would it be sterilised?
I guess we gotta flip that coin.
The view from my window I can see the moon set behind the mountains. It looks bigger and it looks like it's going to land on earth just on the other side of the mountains. I wonder if it played a role in early human migration? Also from my window I can see a Salvation Army. It use to just be mentally ill men sleeping outside the place at night but lately I've been seeing a lot of couples. I wonder if they would be better off if only they could chase the moon? They can't, and that is how I know humans will go extinct.
This comment makes me feel such quiet sadness. Sometimes we make mistakes and lose our way.
I like Lex, but many AI researchers and scientists can’t see past their own optimism. I’m not saying it’s not possible to achieve said goals, but this would require many resources and devotion of a good number of the population even have a chance to get somewhere we want to go. If AI researchers said “we’re very far behind on understanding intelligence” I would 100% believe they would be able to make AGI. But, people just talk about grand goals and forget that almost nothing is known on intelligence and human potential.
I think being a realist and devotion to a certain cause has way more power to arrive at a given goal than optimism can dream to achieve. I know most people would disagree with me, but I’m still curious to hear your opinions.
I think you being extremely optimistic.
It’s happening slowly now 🤣☠️🤣☠️🤣☠️💵🪦💀☠️💵🪦🌎☄️☠️💵🌎☠️
Great guest
HMMMMM.... Nuclear war or Space exploration????????? which one is better?
That really doesn't say much, odds are within the flip of a coin
I love Lex’s optimism… however, the optimism is one-sided, slanted towards humans. I am much more optimistic concerning the whole. With us gone, that gives all the other species such a glorious chance.
Skilled, unknown tinkerers are always busy at work. The last-minute heroism Lex is referring to, if it's to emerge, is the result of the myriad behind-the-scenes frontloading efforts started long before the call for solutions. In other words, seize the day today and everyday ye noble heroes! Your pains may be called upon, and if not in this lifetime, so be it. Herman Melville did not live to see his book about that one white whale come to anything beyond its initial failure.
If we continue to have leaders that don’t let us think for ourselves and over rule there is no way we are lasting too long
It's not the scientist's motives I worry about, it's the person funding him. What's he want?
I mean in that case I would worry about the scientists motives, because i'd rather kill myself than invent a doomsday weapon.
_Nostradamus has entered the chat_
“We must have faith that the universe will unfold as it should.” Captain Spock.
to place oneself in a position of a naive mentality, it is not a positive action towards any real and existential problems. There is no law in the universe that says "Stay in your zone of comfort that everything will be cool"
100 years? I think we can do it quicker than that.
Even if we tried we, as a race, could not destroy ourselves in 100 years. It's just not a realistic prediction.
We are gonna be lucky to make it 5 more years
There is also a 50 percent chance that we won't. I love 50 percent predictions.
You are officially the new POD GAWD on RUclips. Rogan who?
Doesnt any thought had, have a 50% possibility. Anything possible is either gonna happen or not.
Lex my new hero
How can these two seemingly really smart guys be so naive regarding big money / corporate dominance of Govt, Economy & Media creating problems as well as disenfranchising most citizens.
People have been saying this nonsense forever.NOBODY that has made such predictions has EVER been right .
@Lex Clips
Might I ask: If Lex Fridman is so optimistic, why give a pessimistic title (such as the one in this video). Even if there is a 50% chance of humans destroying themselves in the next 100 years (which I see no evidence for at all in this video - which kind of knowledge has been used to produce this number??) what's your interest in spreading this message around as the title of this video? It sounds like clickbait to me and is of poor journalistic quality. I would expect similar headlines from a tabloid (Bild for me in Germany, or The Sun in the UK).
But not from a podcast made by a guy who is working for MIT.
That lex guy looks like he ran away from reservoir dogs
They both do
Mother Nature - "You silly humans have neglected all the things vital to your survival!"
Humans - *Facepalm.*
Anything seems possible when it hasn't happened yet
We have been saying this since the beginning of the time. I think it’s a necessary archetypal idea that’s in general good for the society. Just helps us clear out some messes.
No chance anything is happening to us for at least 300 years. It’s just the start of the technological age.
Humans have been giving the knowledge to prevents it's own dealth yet we do nothing with it