Demographic dividend is an opportunity not a certainty: Former CEA Arvind Subramanian | The Federal
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- Опубликовано: 10 июл 2024
- Former Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian, in an exclusive interview with The Federal, spoke about India’s GDP growth, PLI scheme, India’s demographic dividend, FTAs and Modi’s vision of a ‘Viksit Bharat’.
#modi #indianeconomy #economy #indiagdp #viksitbharatbudget #viksitbharat2047
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Giving 8500 per month without any plan to fund it was a genius plan!! Those not investing in education or skills are on the road demanding desk jobs at par with skilled labour. If skill of demographic dividend is a problem then why is state spending money on salaries to madrasa teachers?? The railways, infrastructure, manufacturing companies have tens of 1000s of core jobs that are unfulfilled because of freebies. States like Kerala and Punjab are going bankrupt but get no criticism from the so called experts.
Indeed. Their motivations are spurious.
He is an anti BJP man.
Our population so much overgrown that all the job seekers can't be employed even if all brilliantly trained and equally capable to the work given. All educated want white collar jobs not manial low paying jobs. Demographic dividend means low salaries even then? Unless population control is enforced country will face serious problems of unrest.Already parties are getting lakhs of people to involve in dharnas and violence. When employees have no time to rest due to heavy work how these people getting time to participate in agitations? Literally hopeless situation. While settling even one child becoming difficult they produce children they even can't feed throw on streets to involve in agitations, violence and even killings. Population control is a must presently for future generations at least. No state filling posts since late 90s but these people blame Modi. What are states doing when other than BJP ruling till 2014 at the centre. How many jobs did they fill in their states and at the centre? All recruitments stopped since freebies culture started.
Superb
Tell me you are drinking from the right-wing fire hose without telling me you are low key BJP supporter.
"Giving 8500 per month without any plan to fund it was a genius plan!!" - If you have ever read Union Budget document, you would know that not every expenditure has a funding plan attached to it. Did Modi tell us from where he's funding Andhra and Bihar package? You can debate merits/de-merits of social welfare scheme based on a framework. As an example, cost-benefit analysis looks at what's the benefit of 8500/per month vs not doing it.
"If skill of demographic dividend is a problem then why is state spending money on salaries to madrasa teachers?? " - National Human Development strategy is the purview of center, not state. Remember "Skill India"? IITs and IIITs (NITs being converted into IITs) are setup by central govt. We failed big time by putting everything in Computer Science basket and have mediocre engineers and a surplus of those that want jobs in IT.
"The railways, infrastructure, manufacturing companies have tens of 1000s of core jobs" - You must be smoking something. Per Indian govt. unemployment is 9.2% of our population. multiply that with 140 (approx.) and you come away with 12.88 crores and not 1000s of crores.
"States like Kerala and Punjab are going bankrupt" - Debt to GDP average ration of Indian states is 31.5 for 2023 with Punjab and Karela at 46.8 and 36.6 respectively. Bihar is 39% while Andhra is 33.3. India's debt to GDP ratio is 86.54%. So, who should we criticize?
Whatsapp gyan is dangerous. Do some research since all the data I am giving you is available in public domain.
There are big issues in this country.. authoritarianism is not good and neither is subsidy.. don’t think he is advocating for congress but pointing out whimsical nature of authoritarian government
Mr. Swami is an opportunist. All these signs were there when he was an economic advisor but like everyone else he was going gaga over Modi. The fact is Modi continued where UPA-II left, and that is jobless growth. Mr. Swami comes from the background of capitalism, but many are seeing writing on the wall clearly now. If we don't address inequality, we'll end up very, very bad. India's situation is a ticking time bomb we all should be very scared of.
Arvind is light weight,just so so economist
But tell me something.. had congress led govt come stock market would have tanked.. FDI would go to 0. If every poor family were khata khat given 1 lakh, even with a modest estimate of 40 cr families it would be 40 lakh crores.. what would have happened to economy..
Here the advise is to create labour intensive jobs whereas Raghuram is against it and wants to focus on purely services and high end. What a stark contradiction
I don't believe the news of demonetization was actually kept a secret. I never saw any wealthy individuals struggling to change their notes. Over the last decade, we've been led to believe we're on the right path, but that's not necessarily the case. Your analogy about 'khata khat' suggests that tea can be made by placing an inverted container over sewage or a gutter, and that radar doesn't function in rainy weather. chai chai chai is a fraud.
Quite the opposite, The Stockmarket would have dropped momentarily and made a swift recovery. FDIs would flood back in, they get spooked by the lack of transparency, the ED raids and It raids with nothing to back it other than political motivation, or if Adani/Ambani have something to gain from it , which was seen with the Airports etc.
Economists like Raghuram Rajan are the ones needed to help make stronger policies for India. Not the Mickey Mouse ones being made now which are no more than band aid solutions for political leverage.
India is assembling foreign made components right now, not manufacturing much. To make matters worse, huge subsidies are being given to assemble products in India.
Its low to medium skilled jobs that the government is PAYING foreign companies assemble in India. It makes little to no sense, other than to the foreign companies, and to the Government who says manufacturing has increased, when it actually hasn't. It's merely assembling foreign imported goods in India.
@@andy22222ify markets are increasing even now with BJP in coalition.. And now the situation is such that the retail participation has exceeded all expectations. If Congress were to come what would happen to fiscal deficit.. one idea is by the situation in Karnataka where govt is struggling to fund infrastructure and price rise in basic services. Apply this to the entire country. About subsidies being high for certain sectors,, yes it is high, but look at other countries, US which is a champion of free market is giving more than 50 billion for chip manufacturing. It is imposing 100 tariff to protect its EV from China. So in the long run it will be beneficial, because the China threat is for real. Raghuram Rajan may be a good economist, but it was during his tenure that loans were incessantly given, Yes Bank, DHFL, PNB, etc ended with huge NPAs due to loans disbursed during his tenure.. if our country is strong when European countries are seeing negative growth and high inflation, when China is slowing, it is a pretty good handling of economy.. look at Srilanka, Bangladesh Nepal and not to mention Pakistan.. Few months back some criticised India saying our per capita is lower than Bangladesh and petrol is cheaper in Pakistan. What do they have to say now.. It can't be that the stock markets are at ATH if majority of the people didn't believe in the govt.
@@andy22222ifythe type of welfare schemes announced by congress , not only stock market but also our fiscal prudence will be hurt by this.
@@shilpa3032 Welfare is tax coming back to Citizens, At the moment we get none. Competent people were involved in the preparation of that scheme.
If the present Govt gave anything back to its citizens it would be a diff story. High Taxes, Record Unemployment is all we get.
And Yet Here We Are 😄
I think world over economists are groping in the dark and running on hypothesis and models. Anything they say with assertiveness may be based on their poliical bias. Economy consists of a large number of factors. In machine learning model terminology, a model for this can not be 'trained', because it is dynamic and changing. Models assume near steady state, relaively consistent response. Much may depend on how people work together with belief in one approach and unortunately politics works against that. When political forces take polarizing views just to spite the opponenets, a lot of factors may be obfuscated.
Good analysis & great directions to solutions for economy. Agree with views that do the skills, education, remove risk, focus on exports and developed country will follow. However, I don’t agree with making light of 2047, doubling farmers income etc. that Mr AS doesn’t seem to like. Targets and slogans are needed to motivate people, give direction and goals to people. If you have no goals you don’t reach anywhere. Slogans are needed to stay in power, to get elected. Economists and academicians can’t come to power because they don’t get it. MMS was an exception, but he was never elected, just propped up.
The host asked some good, interesting and intelligent questions unlike on The Red Mike show where this aspect missing while hosting Mr Rathin Roy, resultantly both failed.
"However, I don’t agree with making light of 2047" - There is a saying "in long term we are all dead." which is why fiscal policy promise with long horizon that have a number attached to them are nothing but pipe dreams. Skill India, Make in India, start-up India, Smart cities, farmer's incomes, $5tn economy have all gone burst. This is to not say motivation or long-term vision are useless. Remember, a child was 10 years old when Modi came to power with a promise of 2 crore jobs/year. That child is 18 today, an adult and in another 5 years will be out of college. 5 years from now will be 2029. The question we need to ask is what are we doing to provide that adult with an opportunity when they graduate?
One way to promote labour intensive MSME manufacturing is to raise the threshold GST limit from 20/40 lakhs to 1 Crore. Small manufacturers are scared of coming in the tax ambit. This will help the MSME segment in growing.
Policies like Retrospective taxation was the greatest risk which was discarded by this govt . Very biased
DEMOGRAPHIC Dividend;
700 millon bright youth;
1/Educate every youth by law/compulsory; free quality education upto 12th grade;
followed by compulsory Military induction for 3years; as simply APPRENTICES;
WHY;
1/For 100 % DISCIPLINE.
2/Build technical skills;
3/ value time;.. respect others;
4/Practical; hands on; make it happen.
Export the globally to bridge SKILL GAPS of the world in all 200 nations;
Balanced assessment of state of the economy
They imposed tax on milk that is the reason the revenue gone up
We Indian people, and foreigners in their reports, gush over how good Indian economy is performing without ever realizing they know jack $shit. India economy has averaged 6.7% in last 10 years (including covid years). At 6.7% it takes 10.75 years for income to double, but our per capita income only grew by 39% in these 10 years, that's CAGR of 3.3%. Yes! I know there is no one-to-one conversion between GDP and per capita but that's exactly the point Arvind is making.
If we are doing really this great, then why is an average person so far behind? Exactly how far behind you may ask. 10 years! This is why many believes Modi has pushed the country 10 years back.
He is politically biased, no value in what he is saying.
This is astonishing that a reputed economist has the gall to openly dismiss the formal growth as spurious. He should then have the honesty to have the bloody guts to formally back his claim with empirical facts. If he can't do that then he will have to be called out as a motiviated critic with dubious intentions. Full stop.
Any doubt about it. He is a biased critic against Modi's government.
What empirical facts are you refering. Modis govts dubious data on economy? The change in calculation to discard the informal sector in calculating GDP numbers?
@@floracelin8823 Are you seeing what is happening in Karnataka and Telangana after announcing freebies. What will be the position of the country if it comes to power.
@subbaraotanguturu9271 if govt is looting from public why shouldnt they give back to people. Who is this govt working for? How long these looting should continue by Modi? What services are you expecting from the agency called goverment? Govt is not king. They should be the servants.
Modi gvt also gave direct cash to farmer in 2019 election time. And in Madhya pradesh elections.
so based on election outcome in 2024, it is not 8%?
8% is not a realistic figure, The realistic figure is about 4%.
Just like the declared inflation rate is inaccurate or even unrealistic.
@@andy22222ifyyou are the oracle who knows one guesses..
@@sundareshanal1849 most good economists , Dr. Rajan, Subramanian, etc are saying the same, you just have to get out of your IT Cell whatsapp groups, and the Arnab, and Reliance run TV channels to hear it.
😊
Demographic dividend means poor, insufficient payments and exploration of poor. Would one employ his children through recommendations for others. Does it satisfy the minimum needs of a small family with one child or makes them unmarried bachelors? Unless forced no one does manial works if so educated take low salaried jobs that not make him to even marry. All are genuine questions. Ultimately they turn out to be vagabonds used by political parties if not who could be on roads if all get sufficient work.
I am concerned the demographic dividend is squandered away by this government. PM claims to have generated 8 crore Jobs.
He was in bjp government earlier, did nothing noticeable, so thanks professor..!! 😊
He's an Advisor to the Govt, who's advice needs to be taken by the government.
If the advice isn't taken, its really the governments fault.
The policies by the Govt. were evidently, more to look after the growth of Adani and Ambani than the country as a whole.
Modi govt has not aggravated risk. There was always risk. And we need to do reforms to remove these risks. But people claiming to be better than Modi govt aren't even talking about them.
Classic whataboutery... They literally had the majority and the gumption to kick the opposition out and pass 1000s of bills in an hour, reforms is the least we can expect... And should demand...
Don't go about your "if the opposition was in power story"... You sound like the opposition yourself.
@@prasvasu4217 Even worse whataboutery!! That person did not even say "if the opposition was in power story"! Maybe you cannot stand any comment that is not anti Modi! You sound like a Modi hater yourself!
Modi added risk by appointing mediocre men like Subramaniam, Rajan to key posts!!
Under which rock have you been living ? You seem to be getting your news from some DStock channels ?
@@parthar101 you seem to be living under a rock.. Rajan was worst rbi governor till date.. left economy in fragile 5, NPA at 12%, inflation at 10%.. this is what happens when u consume content from tatti channels!!
@@Dk2-vs7hh You must be getting your Information from Arnab and his likes, and the IT cell fabricated WhatsApp groups.
Anyone of Caliber was forced out for yes-men or men in saffron robes.
Get back under your tiny rock now....
@@Dk2-vs7hhHe worked under UPA not under Modi if at all in the initial stages. Sri Swamy is an ardent critique of Rajan.He was shunted out later
Why can't you discuss the biggest blunderstroke by Modi the demonitization?
Rajans policies and regulations later helped India ease the NPA issue. To those who blabber about digital india and UPI, it is UPA govt who envisioned and implemented Adhaar , IMPS, UPI(UPI is made on top of less known IMPS) .Also initiated a better for of GST, which was later implemented by Modi in a diff form
There is always a risk in life. If you drive on the road there is a risk of collision and that does not mean you should not drive. People should this former economic adviser should keep quiet as there are more capable professionals who are currently managing our economy better than when this person was the adviser.
Yes yesyou won't suggest won't advice but complain complain a lot
So which economy did is propaganda fellow revive?
RED joined GREEN to establish GREEN RULE in countries
Bank portfolio cleanup by forgoing the bad loans is not a healthy economic solution.
Yes .. NPA Write off is not solution... It will induce more NPA with election bonds. Demonetisation and Tax terrorism are the culprit of MSME.
Its a shame that the Government has changed Competent men like Subramanian, and Dr. Rajan for yes men, and the Cartoons he has surrounding him now. I guess that's why Unemployment and Inflation is what it is today.
In 2005-2010 all we could talk about was overtaking China, now that is a pipe dream. Under great PMs like Dr. Manmohan Singh India made such huge strides ahead.