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The Power Hungry Podcast Isaac Orr
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- Опубликовано: 22 янв 2024
- Isaac Orr researches and writes about environmental issues, mining, and energy for the Center of the American Experiment, a Minnesota-based think tank. In his fourth appearance on the podcast (his last was on March 7, 2023), Orr talks about the staggering cost of decarbonization mandates, why the EPA’s proposed greenhouse gas rule could result in blackouts across middle America, the impact of higher interest rates are having on renewable-energy projects, and the widening divide between urban and rural voters. (Recorded on December 4, 2023.)
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Excellent conversation Robert. I live in New England and I would say every issue Isaac has brought up is significantly worse here. Since 2013 we have lost roughly 7000 MWe worth of mostly fuel secure capacity (coal, nuclear, oil) and everything "proposed" to replace it all is expensive garbage.
Awesome
Terrific exchange. So happy I found your channel (new subscriber), and so happy these topics are being properly discussed. More people need to understand this.
🎯 Key Takeaways for quick navigation:
00:18 🎙️ *Isaac Orr, a policy fellow at the Center of the American Experiment, discusses energy policies and modeling on the Power Hungry Podcast.*
01:12 ⚡ *Isaac and his colleague developed a model to calculate the costs of various energy policies, helping assess the impact of regulations, laws, and technologies.*
02:37 📊 *Orr emphasizes the importance of realistic baseline data and avoiding "bait and switch" tactics in modeling, distinguishing their approach from other optimistic models regarding wind and solar.*
05:20 💰 *Isaac mentions that they've worked on modeling for 11 states, including Arizona, West Virginia, Washington, Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, and Virginia.*
06:29 🤝 *Orr recalls engaging in a debate with Jesse Jenkins and welcomes constructive critique, emphasizing their commitment to improving their modeling methods.*
11:47 💸 *Isaac and Mitch analyzed the EPA's proposed greenhouse gas rule, revealing potential additional costs of $246 billion for ratepayers in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) region through 2045.*
15:05 ⚠️ *Orr points out a critical flaw in the EPA's approach, highlighting the lack of reliability analysis for the entire grid and the overemphasis on emissions reduction without ensuring the structural integrity of the system.*
17:47 ⚙️ *Orr explains that the EPA's proposed rule leads to significant overbuilding in the grid, causing capacity to more than double to meet the demands of renewable-heavy plans.*
18:29 🏗️ *The key cost driver in these renewable plans is the massive construction needed to compensate for the unreliability and weather dependence of wind and solar.*
19:23 ⚡ *Blackouts occurred along the Midcontinent independent systems operator, reaching 26 GW at one point, about 20% of the entire demand in the region.*
21:50 ❄️ *Future winter blackouts are a significant concern, especially with the transition away from gas furnaces to electric heat, as solar is insufficient during winter months.*
22:45 🕯️ *EPA regulations are reducing dispatchable reliable capacity on the grid while demanding more from a system with a shortage of dispatchable capacity, risking reliability.*
27:47 💰 *The estimated cost of EPA regulations in the Midcontinent independent system operator (MISO) alone is $246 billion, exceeding the EPA's modeled nationwide benefits of $5.9 billion annually by a factor of 60.*
34:15 🌐 *There is a divide between urban and rural perspectives, with rural areas potentially facing the consequences of energy policies that urban areas may not fully grasp.*
38:19 🌐 *The podcast discusses the impact of decisions by electric utilities, such as shutting down coal plants, on consumers and grid reliability.*
41:30 ⚖️ *In Minnesota, Democrats dominate the political landscape, passing a 100% carbon-free electricity mandate without repealing the moratorium on new nuclear power plants.*
43:47 💰 *Compliance with Colorado's all-renewable mandate could cost $318 billion through 2050, resulting in an average cost of $243 per month for a typical household.*
47:05 🔄 *Meeting Colorado's peak electricity demand with nuclear power would require significantly less installed capacity (14,372 MW) compared to wind, solar, and batteries (24,558 MW).*
51:24 🔄 *Unseriousness in energy policy stems from the "something for nothing fallacy," where people believe the transition to renewables will be easy and cheap without considering real-world economic costs and physical constraints.*
53:25 📚 *Isaac Orr is currently reading "Electric Power System Basics for the Non-Professional" and "The Wizard and the Prophet," focusing on improving his understanding of the electric power system and the perspectives on environmentalism.*
56:50 🔥 *The challenges faced by Germany in its energy transition, known as the "Energiewende," give hope, as it exposes the potential pitfalls of relying heavily on wind and solar energy.*
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This was a great interview, Isaac has a razor wit.
This ought to have 7000 views. But unless you're subscribed, alphabet probably doesn't put it in your feed...
Say hello to Mr Hinderaker for me!
Scary...
No question Xcel big customers like manufacturing will suffer, yet they never question or push back on Green mandates. So I say to the Manufacturing base here in Minnesota, (or at least what is left), if you say nothing, you are partially to blame.
That's greenie without meanie😋
Robert!? Why are not talking hydrofracking? We sit on a super volcano😋
Sodium ion batteries are the future on the cheap😋
NOBEL PEACE PRIZE
Doomberg the green chicken put out a report there is a addidtive that makes us saudi Arabia x2😋
More central generation needs more grid capacity.
No fossil fueled future means 5 times bigger national grid.
GRIDS ARE INCREDIBLY EXPENSIVE.
What is the modelling on this factor.
Grid expansion is too expensive to be monopolised by say nuclear.
The Australian grid new build cost is equal to the national GDP.
It took 100years to build.
5 times bigger is insanely expensive.
Even cold latitudes have a majority of sunny days.
Offgrid customers with EV and modern rooftop solar PV will be possible. Most vehicles are parked 23hrs every day, daily drive is only 7kwh on avg. And drives are building to building.
EVs 100kwh are 'free' with the vehicle and V2G feature makes vehicles more beneficial.
Abandoning the grid by customers will be a death spiral for grid owners and governments.
Stranded assets are more expensive..