Using Statistics to Predict Every World Champion
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- Опубликовано: 4 окт 2024
- I predict who will win the Rubik's WCA World Championship 2023!
For better explanation of how I got these results: • I Ranked the Top 10 Cu...
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Statistics Predicted THIS World Championship Podium
That 3x3 top 5 prediction is insanely accurate, other than Yiheng losing to Max by 0.01, he had the entire top 5 spot on
I really want an upset from Luke
Yeah
Same
Yea
Luke/Matty could potentially end up on the podium, but it's a real long shot for them to snatch the victory. It's like hoping all the top 4 (Yiheng, Max, Tymon, Ruihang) mess up big time in the final round.
Too!
2:28 also worth noting that Lingkun DNFed out of a 1.61 pyraminx WR average back in March by not starting the timer on his last solve
I think Yiheng will win 3x3, but not because he can deal with nerves well. I've seen his official solves in real life,and I feel like he's just solving the cube, not being influenced by anything else, no pressure by the crowd or the WR chances, like he doesn't feel the nerves at all
Nah if Max stands while solving the cube, he will destroy wr. 😈
Maybe his age plays a factor? Seems like he's just going out and having fun
@@SirTylerGolfI don’t think it matters what age you are, as long as you know there’ll be over 1000 people watching on a big stage, and you’re one of the top competitors to win, there’s going to be pressure on you
@@RileyCopas-SpeedcuberIs he even old enough to understand the impact of his world records? Also if I’m not mistaken, he set his most recent world record on a stage in front of a crowd of people as well. He was also probably going to win that comp as well.
@@Mr_Spudderhe's 9 he isn't a toddler, ofc he knows the significance. I think he just doesn't feel pressure as much as others bc he doesn't feel like he has anything to prove
The thing with Yiheng is that he has experience with comps, but none as big as worlds. Not even Feliks won his first world championship.
The thing is, Charlie going to worlds with an injury on his hand
The fact the Yiheng is predicted to get sub-5 is insane!
Hes gotten so many of them without the world noticing. Not to mention the fact that he has 5ket every sub 6 since returning to comps
While the majority of the anticipated rankings appear logical, the projected timing results tend to be overly optimistic overall. In reality, it is reasonable to expect that individuals would typically perform around 0.2 to 1.0 seconds slower than what your model predicts. For predictions related to the World Championship, it might be prudent to assign more significance to an individual's historical performance when they have underperformed relative to their usual standard.
Absolutely agree, 3x3 final times seem to be way over optimistic for everyone apart from yiheng imo
0:48 mitch
Idk but I think Yoav Vishne is also a really good contender for 2x2 podium as he just got an official 1.13 average and a 1.34 average in the same comp.
1 thing he might lose is because of nerves.
2:36 Let's go Elyas!
I fricken love this video! Should be fun to watch! Hopefully everyone can make it there!
Siggins didn’t even pass cutoff on multiblind lol
4:30 Sean laughs in roux
These predictions show how far cubing has gone through and after covid. The winning average for 3x3 at worlds is almost 2 seconds faster than worlds 2019!
Love the Oceanic representation
This makes max park maybe the only person to win multiple events at a world championship multiple times in multiple championships. Congratulations!
Didnt felix managed to do that aswell?
Felik also did that wdym
@@gryphey oh... thanks?
@@positivity3311 felik had multiple world championships titles 4 world championships in a row
I can’t believe max didn’t win 6x6
Fr same he went from 1st to 6th and Tymon. I mean GGs to Tymon but it’s kinda unexpected
@@gryphey yeah I’m happy for Tymon
@@fivesidessolved same, but I didn't expect him to win 6x6
3x3 prediction was almost right, except for 1st and 2nd. really cool video!
looking at this after the 3x3 standings and WTF that's almost on the dot
I have an idea for clockers to prevent 7simul dnfs. When you think your done, flip the clock while you drop it to look on the other side. If it’s ok, let it fall, or else just pick it back up and solve the rest
Thats atcually a good idea
Human reaction time is about 0.25s, which is too long for such a fast event
@@charlieharrison yeah true
7-simul dnf rates are too small to take advanatage of it
you may be surprised to hear that the 6th ever official 7 simul noflip solve did this (youll never guess who it was)
Dang! You got 3x3 Finals top 5 spot on
zayd in clock is an incredibly based pick
Absolutely
agreed
megaminx being predicted so perfectly with that second model is ridiculous
Multi blnd😭
Tymon actually won 4x4
I think Dwayne just wins. He’s so cracked
The reason Yiheng won't win isn't because of age or experience. It's because he hasn't faced the pressure of knowing that there are other fast people (Besides Ruihang) at the comp.
it also is because of his age because lets not forget yiheng is 8 YEARS OLD. He has never been to a worlds, and your point is correct too, I don't think he's gonna feel comfortable seeing max luke and tymon getting continuous fours.
@@syke1927 thank you Mr. Helpful
@@COAllAces bro what im agreeing with you
Man, this program you created is insane, its future of cubing videos
Somehow max got 6th in 6x6 finals and Tymon is 6x6 champion.
Tymon actually won 4x4 and 6x6
"Tommy doesn't podium"
Tommy:
2:37 KIWI CUBER MENTIONEED RAAAHAHH🔥🔥🐑🥝🇳🇿🔥 WTF IS COMPS IN WELLINGTON??!!
yeah this prediction aged like milk tbh
I love you’re videos man
I feel if Leo Borromeo controls his nerves, there may be a chance at podium
there's no safer clock method when it comes to worlds finals lol - flip isn't any safer than 7sim at getting good results in those conditions, you make any mistakes and the solve is ruined for either method
How did Stanley chapel win skewb
The megaminx second prediction is spot on!
welp i guess most of competitors that can get in the final round has an oppurtunity of winning it
But yeah i think it might be Yiheng
3:27 well
Tymon power is so strong he can stream outside of his video 0:06
Caleb Trelford is going to the World Championships.
And yes, I also think Yiheng will win.
he is registered, but isn’t going
how did you manage to predict megaminx into near perfection
I'm rooting for Matty for the World Champion title 👍😊 Anyway it's gonna be an awesome couple of days
1. Yihen Wang
2. Max Park
3. Tymon
You got very accurate for 3x3. Good Job
I basically agree with everything you said lol
oh my- now he's doing everything
You should do a video comparing the podiums to thie one
That vujcich prediction tho! Jaja
The other podium fro mega predicted it perfectly
Yoav Vishne will get podium in 2x2!!!
True
I think Yihang is winning 3x3 and tommy cherry bld
I think yiheng will fall to the pressure in the end
@@Henryzzhanghe doesn’t have pressure
@@nak523 I've change my decision, and think yiheng will do very well, probably getting 2nd or 1st. But, he has pressure, as thousands of people expect him to do well, so it will be interesting how he handles that.
Yiheng will get 3rd and the feeling will be similar to Feliks getting 3rd in 2011
Alexey got ER at Zreče open and I was at the comp
Well, it won't be Graham for mbld. He dnf'd the first attempt, which means he didn't make the cutoff, so doesn't get the 2nd attempt.
worlds was sick this year
- tommy cherry proceeds to get a wr in 3bld finals
- tymon winning 6x6 is mad considering how strong max's domination in the event is (and 4x4 too but less surprising)
- ziyu ye and like li both getting prs causing zayn to come second
- max park winnning by 0.01 seconds is mad and tymon only being 0.11 behind max (funny how the top 2 are the only wrong parts of the 3x3 predictions)
- roux winning OH
This worlds is gonna be so much different than 2019s cause basically every event has different people at the top
But I think Yiheng will win and he just got 2 sub 5 avgs in a row at his latest comp 🤯
he actually predict the whole magminx podium right
5x5 too
Yiheng in cubing is like gojo satarou in jjk
zayd is my clock world champion
3x3 blind is really inaccurate
i think luke garrett has a chance at podium for OH, hes been silently improving and hes 6th in the world
I'm just curious how do your two models work? Would be a better video if you explained them, otherwise, how do we know it how accurate it is?
With that said I do have a few problems with the podium guessing.
I don't like how you don't mention for bld events (espcially 4 bld, 5 bld, if they accidentally dnf, all their attempts it just ruins everything and someone may just not podium especially under this high pressure it is quite possible)
Next up I have to say clock is just wrong... Incredibly based not having Tommy Cherry...
And you talked about Yiheng Wang with the head to head finals experience, while that is true it isn't quite the same. When he's competing in those head to head finals he is usually clearly the winner with no competition so he doesn't have as much nerves. (Granted you can argue the same thing with Feliks Zemdegs in 2011, when he didn't win worlds where he was supposed to be the clear winner)
Also on one other side note I have a possible hot take: An unknown Chinese cuber might make 3x3 finals (with no good comp results before) only cause china hasn't allowed comps
he has explained in his last prediction video
@@sussybaka8608 yes there was one in the past, but he didn’t explicitly state here the models are the same
I agree that Yiheng will win. He has so crazy of turning AND lookahead that it should be a suprise to nobody if Yiheng wins.
this is late but i have went through every comment about yiheng and max here. i saw 4 comments saying max will win. Since the beginning i knew deep down max was gonna win. Even after yiheng got the 5.15. I just knew he was gonna choke, and I also saw people saying that yiheng was the world champion before yiheng did his solve lol. I was saying "i told you so" to EVERYONE in twitch after max won
@@syke1927 THEN JUST SAY IT RIGHT THEN BRO
I JUST SAW THIS COMMENT NOW AND WANTED TO REPLY BRO LMFAO@@JamesonJamestackSwick
@@syke1927literally no one cares if you thought max would win since the beginning, because in reality, yiheng was definitely more likely to win. If we count the average of the 4 ao5s done in worlds, we can see that yiheng did the best overall. In all honestly, max park won due to pretty much luck
@@rax1899 i honestly don't know what your problem is, max mark didn't win by luck? He got a very consistent 5.31, and yiheng got a wpa, just because you wanted yiheng to win doesn't mean you have to get mad about it. and I don't care about your statistics, because he's 8 years old, children are more likely to get very nervous, and that was the point where he needed to get a good solve and he didn't. Not luck.
i loved this video so much! just asking, what were the 2 different models u mentioned in some of the predictions?(like mega and squan)
Hi
common aka w
Both are similar to the one described in the video in the description, just trained on different data. I think the other model is the same as that video and the main one is also trained with Nationals 2023 data.
@@CubeMasterYT oh wow ok thanks!
carlos mendez garcia have 1.91 on skewb, on pyra arnau tous mateu have 1.99 ao12 of personal best, i think juan pablo is best than nicolas on megaminx, on fewest moves, i put mauro moises, have the european record reciently, on 3blind i put tommy as the best, on 2x2 i put antonie paterakis because he have 1.12 european record
i dont know why cale schoon is not on the list for fmc, for me he is the favorite
I think YiHeng will win not necessarily through controlling nerves but because he maybe is too young to understand the magnitude of worlds and will therefore feel less nerves
great video man
Get ready for another stat he'll get horribly wrong.
TOMMY DIDNT ONLY WIN HE GOT A WR MEAN!!!!!!!
is there somewhere where we can watch the events when they take place?
wca live
There will be live streams at the KCCU2014 youtube channel, I think
Shivam on multi podium lmao
who uploads at this time in the night
lmao fr, i have school tmrw too 😭
true lol it 12:30 am in his timezone
Do you live in new york
It’s 6:45 pm for me so it’s ok
@@SUB-20 yeah he does, he said he lives in new york city in one of his vlogs
5:40 Charlie broke his finger a week ago 😢
I heard :( Unfortunately my model doesn't know about that
@@CubeMasterYT It has been looking like Charlie would be able to preform well at worlds; he has been streaming and getting some 13s and doing pretty well it seems.
Upset lol max got 6th for 6x6
is there a way I can use this program.
Nice video Sam
Sad that this may be the first year feliks doesn’t podium
i think he can pull off a podium at one of the big cubes
@@GreasedSwineno chance
@@nak523yes chance
@@jackanderson1063 feliks pr 6x6 single is not even in top 4 seed 6x6 avg
@@nak523 statistically not very likely but it could still happen
When is WC this year?
like tomorrow
The 12 to 15 I think
10 minute mark (great video, yiheng is nuts)
w pyra prediction
WAIT 3x3 WAS RIGHT EXCEPT SWAP MAX AND YIHENG
What about Matty?
as of rn your clock statistics were really close in the first round but tommy won the finals
I will not guarantee that a 3x3 No.1 cyber who hides in Singapore and Malaysia every day will beat Max Park, despite his results being better than Max.
tymon is my world champion 🥲
where can I watch worlds?
I think there is no doubt that Wang wouldnt win he is too good
Tommy cherry👀
I want Tymon to get WR average in Finals for 3x3 and win
Def not wr average. But i do hope he will win too
@@ٴ24 Its possible tho
@@ImagineNotCubing not possible, Tymon did not even get any sub5 official average this year
Tommy will make 3bld wr
is Fahmi going?
Sadly not
Hi, I'm contacting you from RTL Television Croatia to ask for your permission to use your video of Rubik's Cube World Championship that you've filmed. We're doing a story about this in our daily news show, and we can sign you as an author. Sincerely, Karla Vidovic producer
I don’t really think that Patrick will win one hand
Personal opinion on the predictions
MBLD: There is no way Shivam will end up on podium imo. He hasnd had an attempt for over 40 points in 4 years now. Graham also may not end up on podium for a very simple reason that his flight is very delayed and he might not be able to compete. If graham comes the posium will be Siggins, Chen, Chapel (in any order), if not it will be Chen, Chapel, Bober.
skewb: I believe Zayn will be better. Right now Carter has only 6 sub 2 averages and his best competition ao100 is at 2.50 compared to Zayn's 17 sub2 averages and 2.15 competition ao100. It will make for a great story but imo the difference is so big that if Zayn doesnt help Carter he will win.
Pyra: Firstly it will be worlds, Tymon will activate and sweep. Secondly I dont see Michael Nielsen not getting the podium.
Clock: Hard pass. Zayd and Tommy have similar DNF rates and "consistency" isnt gonna make him pb by half a second in worlds finals just because he is flipping, especially considering his result at oceanics. I agree however that these 3(4?) from the first model will make the podium, just not in that order. Piotr is gonna DNF avg in round 1
OH: Patrick aint coming. His flight is cancelled.
FMC Jay > Wong > Firstian but I could see that tie happen
3bld: /shrug
5x5: Seung 2nd
3x3: No issues but more in line with 2nd model
bigblds, sq1, minx, 7x7, 6x6, 4x4, 2x2: no issues
Thanks for coming to my ted talk
Oh no, I hope they can reschedule multiblind if Graham is delayed
@@AnthonyRochester I hope they get rid of that stupid cutoff
@@kama2106 what cutoff?
Anyway there's a second multiblind attempt on Monday
@@AnthonyRochester you have to get over 14 points on attempt 1 to qualify for attempt 2
Bro perfectly predicted Megaminx
In multiblind Shivam won't be 3rd it'll be Stanley or Elliott
it wont be elliott, he hasnt been practicing and might not even do mbld lol
my best guess is me first, and i think 2nd and third could be a huge toss-up between Stanley and Bober
@GrahamSiggins good luck
@@AnthonyRochester 💀
@GrahamSiggins I guess you had a bad day, your first dnf result for mbld!
@@AnthonyRochesterthat means he didn't make the cutoff, so he doesn't get to do the 2nd attempt.