Drawing the conclusion that if a case presents with a resulting death there must be 29 other cases, feels like a brutal misunderstanding of stats. It's a chance of death, purely circumstantial based on an individuals specific needs. The death rate is based on so many factors, population density, community penetration, overall public health, individual risk factors, social networks etc, etc, etc.
yes indeed, exactly thats the point here as well.. I feel its a gross misunderstanding of my concept here.. its about reverse calculation for estimating the real cases vs the reported cases (which, essentially, are based on presumptive case fatality rates) .. My main objective is to bring to focus that the real cases (including subclinical or asymptomatic cases) are way way way...more than the reported cases (could be 10 times or 50 times or 100 times or even more).. its a small tip of huge iceberg..!
@@mukhmohitsingh Oh, for sure. Mild cases will be the bulk of infections, and generally will go unreported. I can see that I probably misunderstood it being a thought experiment. I'm currently self isolated in the UK as a roommate showed symptoms recently so we're quarantined, but he won't be tested as his symptoms aren't severe enough for hospitalization. On that note actually, I'd be very interested in learning about the post infection testing for anti bodies in the population, if that will fit into your series somewhere. Also great content, don't think that one part irked me so much, I enjoyed the videos so far, very informative.
Sir what is the natural course of disease in a normal healthy person? Is it self resolving like most of the viral diseases, if so, what is the difference between covid and a common cold?
its the time for cases to double... in these situations - we do not tak of number of people which this virus can infect... because that'll depend on social and environmental factors - we take into account the basic reproduction number and doubling time (of cases)... earlier it was said to be 5-8 days... and even reports have come from Italy - showing a much faster doubling time - 3-4 dyas also
Glad to see you again sir, thank you very much for this informative video
Sir please add this video in marrow....It will be really helpful for us
Drawing the conclusion that if a case presents with a resulting death there must be 29 other cases, feels like a brutal misunderstanding of stats. It's a chance of death, purely circumstantial based on an individuals specific needs. The death rate is based on so many factors, population density, community penetration, overall public health, individual risk factors, social networks etc, etc, etc.
yes indeed, exactly thats the point here as well.. I feel its a gross misunderstanding of my concept here.. its about reverse calculation for estimating the real cases vs the reported cases (which, essentially, are based on presumptive case fatality rates) .. My main objective is to bring to focus that the real cases (including subclinical or asymptomatic cases) are way way way...more than the reported cases (could be 10 times or 50 times or 100 times or even more).. its a small tip of huge iceberg..!
@@mukhmohitsingh Oh, for sure. Mild cases will be the bulk of infections, and generally will go unreported. I can see that I probably misunderstood it being a thought experiment. I'm currently self isolated in the UK as a roommate showed symptoms recently so we're quarantined, but he won't be tested as his symptoms aren't severe enough for hospitalization.
On that note actually, I'd be very interested in learning about the post infection testing for anti bodies in the population, if that will fit into your series somewhere. Also great content, don't think that one part irked me so much, I enjoyed the videos so far, very informative.
Thanks sir, please upload the rest parts asap
Sir what is the natural course of disease in a normal healthy person? Is it self resolving like most of the viral diseases, if so, what is the difference between covid and a common cold?
its is self resolving in most cases (upto 70-80% of cases do not develop into severe illness)
nice presentation
7:35 Doubling time of virus means
Number of patients doubling or Number of virus doubling in number? Please respond sir
its the time for cases to double... in these situations - we do not tak of number of people which this virus can infect... because that'll depend on social and environmental factors - we take into account the basic reproduction number and doubling time (of cases)... earlier it was said to be 5-8 days... and even reports have come from Italy - showing a much faster doubling time - 3-4 dyas also
8:52 it should be 6-8 hours as written , not days !
Excellent Sir