France is going to be 'very interesting to watch' in 2023 and 2024, senior economist says
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- Опубликовано: 15 дек 2022
- France's debt-to-GDP ratio makes the country "interesting to watch" in the coming years, according to Erik Norland, executive director and senior economist at CME Group.
I'm an Italian guy and here in Europe the perception is quite different.
France has half of the inflation rate of the UK. Paris' stocks market index (Euronext) has just surpassed the London Stock Exchange. France has great political influence over Europe while Germany has really started to questioning its economic model based on energy from Russia and raw material from Asia (China, Korea, Japan) and has a declining perspective in next decades.
Demographics are strong, in France, the highest of the big five economies of Europe. Its commercial ties with its former colonies, after years of strong chinese and russian influence over french africa and Indochina, are starting to shift in a good position.
The void created by an uncertain future for UK (the dream of a global Britain seems like a steady decline of the growth potential for the country, the "Brexit Hit") while Germany is trying to reinvent its economic core (the car industry, the energetic crisis, the exporting model which is failing in war times) has let France to be the new center of the continent.
In their analysis the two spokesman seems blind to some really strong assets of french economy and it's political weight in the continent.
Here in Italy a lot of our brand in the fashion world, food industries, car manufacturing, design firms, pharmaceuticals, aerospace industry and energy company has been acquired by french companies in the last two years.
France is really far from being a country in crisis, unlike the UK or Germany which are both struggling to keep their fundamentals solid (something that economists should start looking, the numbers they are using are a strange approximation or a projection which doesn't necessarily tell the truth, and can be used to sustain even wrong prediction).
A great example of that was the economic collapse of Russia under the world sanctions: we in Europe didn't understand why, but Russia had a limited hit and next year could even been growing, in spite of bad prediction!
Ok
Absolutely right, France has one of the best outlooks for the next decades alongside the US and Sweden
Don't the French people feel pessimistic? High public debt, low wages/salaries, high unemployment, stagnant investments in R&D and brain drain.
Germany has built 5 terminals to receive LNG. Its auto industry might hurt due to EV but that applies to France too. It needs more engineers right now. Public debt is lower than France.
@@dezafinado The French are the most pessimistic society so yes, however they don’t realize how lucky they are in terms of future economic independence, demography, social benefits etc. Those problems exist but can be solved, and debt? Just look at the US
Italy has done well since last year and the economy since to be more strong
Hope Italy and France stay together as the two main powerhouses of Europe (with Germany)
bro where did they find those numbers,??? 350% of the gdp LMAO.
According to public sources, (eurostat 2019) the ratio of public debt/gdp in france was 98.1%, UK 85.4%, Germany 59.8%.
If you take the global debt public + private sector , according to the national statistical institute and economic studies of france (Insee) the debt cumulated at 112% of the of the gdp, for UK (numbers from office for national statistics) its 100.1%
So I am really wondering, why people called economist in england are openly lying about the numbers in front of thousands ?
they that figure also includes private debt aswell.
180 % debt level to GDP 20 years ago ? 230 % today ? What the hell is he talking about ?
TOTAL debt... public + private sectors.
@@dezafinado Thanks, I understand it a week later 😁
ite public and private debt
End of 2023 we are still fine guys don't worry :)
Patience :)
Who is the principal ever paid off on the Louisiana purchase?
I just got back from Paris. You would never know they are up to their eyeballs in hock.
in what?
France is a country slowly going downward, as much as it saddens me to say that. It really hurts to see the people struggling more and more, and we just keep getting one incompetent President after another.
I know what some people will tell me: you get what you vote for. The thing is: people do not vote FOR someone anymore, they vote AGAINST the other, or for the one they think to be the least worst of all (if it makes sense).
In English the expression is "the lesser of two evils".... meaning Macron was not ideal but he's better than LePen.
It's pretty simple really. Everyone wants to live like Americans but don't want to work like Americans. Something my dad always said. And yes I'm a person of color 1st generation.
actually some european countries live far better than in the US
Simple analogy the health sector in Europe is cheaper to access, social care is higher, and your rights as a worker ar eenshrined in law to stop exploitation, of course your free to work 80hrs or more enitirely across the pond.
The Finnish experiment of the 4-day week show very surprising results, productivity up sick days down, now being adopted elsewhere.
@@andyduhamel1925 yes but Finnish debt is rising to concerning levels (their media says this).
So. MAYBE. This system of high debt with extremely good social welfare systems and workers protections (probably not on this one - as you said above it generally makes workers more productive and the country's economy more sustainable - but perhaps it makes it inefficent compared to US or other more capitalist countries) may lead to future strife?!?!?!?
@@bradysylvester4371 I think in Europe it's more about the social spending than the workers protections. Now, this includes the fact that public sector workers generally have better worker protections than the ones in the private sector, so they are a very big burden. Public servants headcount in some european countries also tends to be bloated, so at the same time, it makes them a burden and a big political interest group (which gives them a lot of voting power and visibility on the streets, which allows them to ask for more and more).
Now, US public debt is also having a moment (highest ratio since WW2), but I would take the risk of saying that's because of too low taxes. Private debt in the US, I have no idea.
I would say the only ones in the broader western world with healthy finances would be the ones who follow either the scandinavian system or the german system, but even them have high levels of private debt, so I guess nobody is safe.
It’s crazy the world is falling to a right wing government
As France is relatively small, its economic collapse won't affect the international markets at all. Maybe the cheese prices go up, LOL
nice joke
Yeah I mean the second EU economy collapsing what could possibly go wrong right ? 🤡
I enjoy watching it go in x