The rents out there are outrageous. I mean, I'm in Denver which is much worse but there's higher paying jobs here. Phoenix is/was supposed to be my escape. Not anymore.
I've lived in PHX for over 30 years and have lived through the boom-bust cycle. This one feels different. Your content is excellent with good underlying data. THANK YOU!
My guess is because lending standards are high now, plus the fact that you have had a wave of remote workers (many in tech) moving to the Phoenix area.
@@Mike95lude I think lending standards are hard to qualify when you have regular people with multiple investment properties. If they haven’t built solid reserves a quick down then might change their ability to weather the storm
The prior bubble was based on pure speculation and liar loans. This housing boom has that but lending standards, at least for individual buyers, are much higher. In Phoenix they have large amounts of people fleeing California and Washington State with cash in hand. The politics in those states will continue to decline so tax payers in there will continue to flee those states. Also there's massive job creation in Phoenix of well paying jobs really and that is drawing people from everywhere. So unless the job creation or the influx from leftist states ends I don't see Phoenix going down anytime soon. But all of this is dependent on the FED keeping the house of cards they created afloat.
@@daviddixon1611 watch a few more of his videos to see just how sharp he is. And he doesn’t blow his own horn to see all the great deals he’s done. And all the hype and flash of the phonies on you tube, trying to build a name for themselves. This guy is like a research expert for a big bank or something. Down to earth and old school. My wife and I have been putting one of our yearly incomes into phoenix rentals and living on 1 income for decades. I sold all but 3 properties the past 2 years. And I was going to go buy 7-10 more in Omaha or Oklahoma City. So I could stay with the rule of 1 percent. But health issues change of plans. 80 percent of the people on you tube are blow hards . Trying to get a following like the rich dad poor dad guy. Or the hundreds of smoke and mirrors people. This guy is just plain smart. Nobody has a crystal ball in real estate or mutual funds etc . But you take a calculated risk and hold on. This guy gives advice it’s taken me 30 years to learn. And he gives it in a humble way. Not like look at me I make millions a year. He’s a master of real estate research. That leads to sound business decisions. He’s the real deal .
@@daveandersen2484 Agreed. Have watched quite a few of his postings recently. I'm just a bit younger than you; but not much. Don't claim expertise; but I've been paying attention to economics / real estate / investing issues for several decades. Just having a command of basics has served me well. Making good and bad choices over several decades gives a person a decent understanding, command, and perspective. Great communicators are also great simplifiers. His presentations are very understandable, even for a layman. This guy does the hard grunt work getting to the fundamentals. Getting the right information in the "information age" can be like trying to get a drink of water from a fire hose, with a paper cup. Information isn't the obstacle; critical thinking is.... This guy seem to me to be an ace critical thinker; I hope he has success. Best of luck to you in your endeavors... Thanks for the chat.
Phoenix used to be so affordable. People who moved from Cali as well as other states back in early 2000’s could easily relocate there. Now the wealthier Cali people moved here and turned that to an unaffordable market. Ive talked to tons of locals who can barely afford to live there. Several who had to move into bad dangerous neighborhoods,. The income gap is blatant.
@@sailingaeolus Don't want to interrupt your liberal hatred rant but "rich liberals" aren't moving to Arizona. The demographic moving to Arizona are retirees, lower middle income middle aged but modestly house rich Californians and Arizonians that lived in Cali for a job moving back to buy their first time home.
CA native here, I moved out because I was priced out of the state that I grew up in and loved. I moved to an actual house rather than an apartment that was built 50 years ago and twice the price as a house in AZ. I am by no means rich. I’m looking for space to raise my family in that is affordable. I think many millennials are at that point in their life right now. I love AZ and from what I have seen in my area there are a lot like me who are also moving out here without liberal views even if they are from CA. The people buying up homes in mass are not necessarily people but rather corporations buying up many homes at a time and renting them out. It’s easy to blame the state next door but look into it and you will see that there are a lot of foreign investors that have their money in the game.
LOL - homes are NOT going down 20%. Increases will slow down - but with all the new businesses coming here - we will continue to have a robust market. You will be waiting forever if you think prices are going to drop much, if any.
@@davisholman8149 Absolutely agree. I don't see any downturn anytime soon. Too many large corporations moving into the state...along with the Cali people.
1.7M people in 1980. Over 6M people now. Developers and cities have destroyed the area. I'm retired now and it's a shame to see how the recreational areas have been completely destroyed or are so crowded you have more room in your condo parking space.....
Just moved from Arizona back to the Midwest to be closer to family. Was there for almost 20 years. The Phoenix real estate market is interesting and there are a number of factors causing the increase in prices in that market: low inventory which you have mentioned, (people moving to AZ from Cali but also from other areas like WA, OR and IL to get away from high taxes and crime) cheap money circulating around and real estate investors. The later is the one that concerns me. When we sold our home we had multiple offers within 2 days. One of them was an investment company from CA that was buying a lot of houses in my subdivisions, as well as other subdivisions throughout the Phoenix area. They were outbidding families and either turning it to rental, or flipping. Similar to what Zillow has been doing in other parts in AZ. I have no idea how it will turn out, but I can't shake the feeling of an implosion of sorts. Having lived through the crash in AZ, I do see similar signs of a repeat to the extant that prices are going up way too fast and people can't afford them. AZ use to be affordable, but not anymore. Will there be a bubble or correction by 50%? Who knows, but it doesn't look or smell right. Just my .02
Thank you for the comment and local insight! You bring up a lot of great points. Often analyzing behavior can be even more revealing than looking at data. The surge in investor demand/flipping is often the sign of a bubble peak.
I agree with you Grappaling guy. Im in the market everyday and I feel like there are to many different things contributing to the crazy prices which in my opinion makes this market very volatile.
Speculation eventually pulls the rug out from underneath the market. I'm selling into the market in Denver. Going to travel in the RV for a while and see if it shakes out such that I can go bargain hunting next year. Roll of the dice, but I feel pretty confident. I'm going to look in the Midwest, too. I like the woods of Indiana.
@@nikmills I listed and sold a families home who purchased a huge travel trailer and parked it next to the lake. They have a boat and jet skis and spend lots of their free time enjoying them. Im guessing they felt like it was a good time to get out and wait and buy again.
Phoenix native - have been waiting to buy a house since April. Homes going on market now have been sitting in the market longer compared to April/May, but the prices are still over their values especially for older homes.
Also a native. Agreed. Not to mention how many people are in line for decent homes. I've been in offers, but nothing. Not only are a lot of people moving here, but some of them with all cash.
In Phoenix there are a few great things that people don’t know about and I will list them 1. We have a very stable military population 2. We have a huge student population with colleges and universities 3. We will always have a huge snowbird population These are the constants New drivers of the economy are 1. Tons of new companies arriving in the west valley, Boeing, Amazon and others building along the 303 and 202 highways because it was farmland that has now been purchased for homes and large industries 2. We have EVERY major sports team in the valley that people don’t know, hockey, basketball, football, race track, golf and many more that people are moving for 3. We just passed a flat state tax of 2.5 which will be very attractive to companies. Phoenix and Glendale have always been poverty and it’s the oldest area of the valley. The East and west valleys are growing with major businesses coming in from WA, CA and OR.
Thanks for your insight. Do you think the north Glendale or north Peoria has good growth potential? As you mentioned, what neighborhood will the Loop 303/202 developing area encompass actually?
I think your possible decline of 20% is spot on. That type of decline would bring things back to reality. They may not be building as many new houses as they were in the past, but we still have massive amounts of land that is empty and buildable. If material prices come down, then they can ramp up construction quickly. Our biggest issue is going to be water to sustain the population growth. Phoenix is also a huge secondary home market. There is a lot of inventory that can come to the market from what we call snow birds.
Thanks for the comment Sebastian! You bring up a great point on vacation ownership. The more owners who are either investors or part-time occupants, the more that inventory can spike and prices decline.
@@ReventureConsulting These snow birds also tend to be older individuals. They will eventually move to long term care homes or die. Phoenix was attractive for them because the cost of living was so low. Recently that has changed and the cost of living is getting more expensive. In my opinion, Phoenix housing used to be undervalued. Currently it is overvalued. A correction of 15-25% would bring it back to a fair value.
Phoenix is beautiful but the drought situation is real. Colorado river reservoirs (Lake Mead and Lake Powell) are at 30% and cannot sustain the population growth.
@@tutttutt9558 Sort of. Almost everyone has a pool here and there are locations that have created man man waterways and lakes. That's a lot of water usage, but it has limits with the explosive growth we are seeing.
Got that right escaseyburn. I lived in Phoenix most of my life bur most of the time worked out of state or overseas where my salary was 3 to 10 times what I could earn in Phoenix. Retired in 2013 at age 55 and immediately moved to Panama. Lived in Ecuador, Nicaragua and for more than 4 years Costa Rica. I rent a 7 bedroom/5 bath house with 4 car garage on 23 acres for $161 a month. My electric runs between $12 and $15 a month. And it never has been colder than 55F or hotter than 87. Needless to say I won't be returning to Phoenix, Arizona or the US.
I hope so. I’ll pick one up cheap. The fresh meat buying frenzy should halt soon. Paying 500k for something that was 200k two years ago is fools errand.
I’ve been in the Phoenix metro for 30 years. The 2005 bust was exacerbated by a lack of diversification of the jobs market which was heavily dependent on real estate. Since then, both the public and private sectors have worked to diversify the economy. I think this analysis needs to take a deeper dive into job growth in order to provide a more accurate forecast of demand.
Good points Mark! Phoenix has a much lower share of employment in construction this time around. Which is why I don't think another 50% downturn is likely.
I live in a western Phoenix suburb. Housing prices are fueled by being one of the first cities Californians encounter as they travel from LA to PHX. Californians regularly knock on my door offering unbelievable amounts of cash for my home which is not on the market. Many employers are moving here from other states and from overseas paying good salaries which also increases home prices.
To add a little context: 85034 and 85040 are largely the hood!! I used to live in 85040 that’s south Phoenix, parts of it are being gentrified which explains the poverty. You’ll see nice homes being built in the middle of the hood nowadays plus some newer (gated) developments sandwiched between older neighborhoods. Which explains that disparity there Sun city is definitely retirement town! A lot of 55+ only communities And we personally bought in Gilbert before the pandemic hit, seen lots of appreciation here in this suburban city All accurate info! Great data 👍🏾👍🏾
Although South Phoenix is all newly built and doesn't look anything like the hood anymore! My neighborhood which has older houses are being flipped and sold for over 400 500 and 600,000 dollars! Nothing special being done to the homes no bells or whistles but because of costs out makes the house prices crazy too! When you flip a 50 60 year old house you basically gutting it adding new roof new A/C possibly re plumbing re wiring. Its pricy
Thank you! You were confirming some thoughts or feelings I was having about Phoenix, a lot of which came from what I have learned from watching your past videos. Your videos are really great as you are a great presenter and your info seem quite honest and right on as it's facts based, less biased. You have the right tone, statement, timing, keep it up, and thank you for digesting data into and sharing with everyone. (You don't know how many terrible real estate presenters there are, I literally can't stand to watch them speak, and a lot of them biased with more personal agendas.) Thanks for doing this!
Well said Angela !! Most of these Real estate You tubers have huge agendas. I bought a Home in Maricopa AZ in 2006. Multiple realtors and Lenders told me there is no Bubble because people Keep moving to The Phx Area. They were all wrong. My home went as low as 60 k from 230 k ….
Just bought a house in Glendale. I rented it for years and negotiated for what the house would have been worth if we weren’t in this crazy market, basically what we thought prices would drop back to when they go back down. Thankfully our landlord was a great guy who was willing to work with us. If housing prices drop by 20% it will put the prices right back to what we actually paid for our house which is exactly what we estimated and aimed for.
I'm curious what you ended up paying. The rental rates are getting insane here in mesa. They are wanting to push my rent up basically $400 in one go which is insane for a renewal. I've never had an increase over $50 to $75 in a renewal period with several different property owners.
@@sugoiharris1348 Yea its insane right now they are gradually just pricing everything like its old California out here or something. I might just have to look at leaving the state after this. They just keep pricing anyone out of everything if you not making 90 plus k a year the way its going.
Just FYI: those orange areas in the last map, such as Sun City, Sun City West, and Sun City Grand, are retirement communities. Meaning you cannot buy a home there unless you are above 60. Usually with a reverse mortgage. You drive around in golf carts.
Correction to your statement. The minimum age in Sun City and SCW is 55, SCG is 45. You cannot buy a home with a reverse mortgage. Most people in these communities have planned well for their retirement and pay cash for their homes or take small mortgages. And yes, most have golf carts. And your point?????
It's nice to see the supply numbers but it's only 1 factor of supply and demand. A factor that combines both into one is Supply of Listings. If no houses were added to the listings then the time it would take for them to sell is the Supply of Listings. The current Supply of Listings is around 1 month for the Phoenix area. This is at an all-time low. So not only is inventory increasing but the houses are being bought up in relation to the increase in supply. The demand is higher than the supply even now.
Phoenix homeowner, my take: Phoenix's housing market is solid per the absolute influx of....out of state buyers. Specifically those who are coming from more expensive real estate markers. In addition, there's a building material shortage (maximum building cost) that's not going away anytime soon to build more homes. Also the problem with your "high growth doesn't equal good housing markets" is completely flawed by being a national issue per banks irresponsibly handing out unqualified individuals mortgages left and right. What took place at ~9:40 per the years ~06/07 was per the lenders and less to do with localized city situations.
Sold our Mesa Az. home in February........Purchased Sept. 2014=$159,900..........Sold Feb.2021=$389,000........Took the money and ran back to Texas. Thanks California!
Arizona native here, just bought for my first time (purchased a new build townhouse in phx) and bought @300k 3 months ago, as of today is priced @350k. Praying that if there is a dip, it’s not to steep 🤞🏼
You should put links to all your graphs that you use for context so people in these areas can do deeper dives if they want to! Good info all around tho!
Do you think the same analysis applies to surrounding cities like Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, Cave Creek, etc? Or do people who buy in those areas tend to be more willing and able to pay for the location?
Good question! I think those areas will be a bit more insulated from a downturn, just like they are last time. But when a city gets hit hard, all areas tend to go down in price.
I believe you are talking about the Phoenix area. Most of the crazy growth prior to the last bust was actually in the smaller cities around Phoenix for single family homes. A new build will take nearly 10 months to build right now.
Thank you ... Excellent Insights !! Migration can really pickup if the Tech Market Booms and Phoenix becomes a center of Fintech on the west coast. I read somewhere that there are plans to develop the Tuscan - Phoenix Corridor into a Tech Economic Zone. Given California's problems specifically the belt between LA and Silicon Valley on the Coast, chances of higher migration cannot be ruled out.
I don’t know if anyone has commented on this, but the property taxes in the Phoenix Metro area are very low compared to other places. I have a 1666 square foot house in South Scottsdale. My property taxes are 130 a month. This could also make a difference in people paying higher prices for homes.
That's a good point! Phoenix does have low property taxes, which provides a bit more incentive to own v. rent. However, the low property taxes didn't stop the 2008 freight train from hitting!
Great video, thank you! I bought a house in Chandler in 2015 and it's done great. Was thinking of purchasing a second house in Gilbert and this video helps a lot.
You got it half right….. as someone who has been here a LONG time I can tell you your not factored in the “ exodus” when the crash happens. In 2009-2013 this place was a ghost 👻 town. All the Californians who invaded my home last go around split when times got tuff and went back home. It was great 👍!!! And I see all the same stuff as I did last time just MORE of it! Over building massive traffic skyrocketing prices on everything. And the wages in the state are 10 years behind the curve. A 400k house is NOT sustainable or realistic. You say 50% not likely……… I say 50% certainly! And I’m putting my money on it. Keep up the good videos.
I hope you are right because all the Californians are making AZ purple. It should be a Red State. If there is a 50% drop in home prices, then I will be coming to make the state redder!
@@ZoeLyn-oj1kj Haha, I'm a conservative in CA and would love to trade places with some of those Cali liberals in AZ. I've been dreaming about moving to AZ to vote for DJT in 2024...so hopefully my dream will come true!
There won't be a crash anytime soon. Nevada doesn't have as bad water problems as AZ or CA. Next year AZ will need to cut water use by a lot. Year after that, CA turn. Nevada's share is only 4% and there won't really be cuts.
I relocated from Chicago 04/2019 and saw many homes and was disappointed to see how AZ real estate had took a turn. I’m noticing houses are lasting a little longer in market and pricing is settling as well. It’s refreshing and exciting to witness the greed is slowing down. Chandler/ Gilbert/ Tempe and Northside of Pheonix is still hot! Thanks for all the info.
Oklahoma City, OK. I'm buying a place in Mustang, OK. Basically surrounded by incorporated Oklahoma City. Mustang is basically 2 miles x 12 miles in total. Looking forward to your numbers on that area. I appreciate your expertise.
Bought my house in San Tan Valley in Oct. 17' at 208k and am selling for 415k tomorrow. Over a 100% gain in 4 years is absurd. I doubt we will see a downturn but I wouldn't doubt it cools off immensely for now and starts correcting in the next 5 years.
30% in one month in my neighborhood, which has low inventory. One condo went on the market for $90k over last month 186k when there was 0 inventory. Now there are like 7 houses priced between $210k and $275k. This is the end of the buying season in Tucson and I wonder what will happen in the next few months.
@@JonNobleNobelOne I’m certainly not an expert but I’d say an influx of out of state butters combined with greed and seasonal supply and demand fluctuations. So during the buying season which I think is like April through august inventory will drop and some greedy owner will list his property at way above market value. Then out of state buyer buys it anyways because it’s still less than what he sold his California home for. This sets a new value in the comparisons driving prices higher than wages can support.
Amazing job u did with plethora of data u showed. U are correct on all of it. You did leave out a big piece of the market that has affected housing’s increased prices. Big business are building in Goodyear at an insane level since 2017-2018. Amazon, Boeing, rei, really just too many to count. OHHH and…2 Taiwanese microchip manufactures will be building and producing in the west valley. In addition to businesses migrating ,Thousands of people r migrating because of the job availability. In my opinion this growth has caused the cost of living for natives to skyrocket. Our younger adults can no longer afford the housing that remains available. IF the housing market declines, it could be the later part of 5years?Housing demand in the west valley is critical at this moment. Home builders are just now, in 2021 catching on to the massive population/business migration’s need for housing.
When do you project the greater RENO area is going to be covered as I am going there in about 5 weeks for a closer look. Thank you for the great data references and how to use the data. Very refreshing vs all the prognostications with little or no backup.
Bought my house in Surprise for $200k 4 years ago. Comps are over $350k now. Might move back to Lancaster, PA in 1 year. Thought about jumping out and renting during that year but rent prices have grown at the same rate. Hoping the market won’t plummet before we move. The market in Lancaster is not out of control like it is here. Input or advice? Thanks.
@@ReventureConsulting Very true. Thanks for the replay. I'm very nervous about a crash beginning early in 2022 before I have a chance to sell here in Surprise, AZ.
We have very strict landlord friendly laws here making it very easy to get evicted for just about anything with very little recourse. A lot of people are moving here and renting until they can buy, but they don't understand our laws. An eviction on your credit is brutal for both renting and buying. I wonder how much this will play into our market.
Born and raised in Phoenix area (53 years) and have seen it all. While most of this is on point I would say the parallels to '08 are smaller than one would think. Construction of homes was the #1 employer for many years and the financial crisis made that go to almost zero. Today Phoenix metro is second only to Austin for high tech companies relocating or expanding and bring a younger, more educated demographic that earns a decent income. Covid broke the dam of reasons to stay in Cali and that state will be bleeding high earners for the foreseeable future. Large % come here as it is still close enough to be connected to family back in California. 2cents
The age demographic in Surprise is changing with large family developments being built. I just bought a house in one of these developments (new construction) and I am probably in the minority for age (50+). This development is being expanded and other developments are opening up closer to Wittman. One reason I would avoid Phoenix metro area is water shortages. The Colorado river is at historic low levels and aquifers are also very low. Water rationing could be in the near future if the drought situation doesn't change.
Great information, I just found your channel and am soaking up the information. Please consider doing a video on Las Vegas/Henderson. I was there for the last downturn, which was substantial, and am curious if this one is going to be as bad.
Would love to know what too. I live here in vegas and am priced out. I would assume vegas his highly speculative like Phoenix. Let's see how many ppl can take 115 deg summers lol.
I bought my house here in Phoenix in 2014 for 120K , refinanced last year and in 2020 was asses at 250K... Something deep down tells me something is wrong with that.. Cant put my finger on it, but it just doesnt seem right..
@@Avocadotoastin Im by the 202/101... It just doesnt seem sustainable.. They are building much more rental apartments than actual house, maybe thats whats fueling it.
I am only 5mins into the video, however this helps re-confirm my belief. I lived in AZ from 04-13 and just returned in Oct of 2020. I am a former Californian until 14yrs old, but have family roots here in AZ. I know this sounds grim, I do wish there was a major market correction!! +-30-40% I think realistically it will be 12-15% when it is all done and settled, however the people who got in early enough and stayed in will/have won!! I wish I would have pulled the Triger/ had capital when I was 19/20 yrs old. -"There is always another sucker to be sold" - We need to go back to the thoughts of Value vs Price!!
Good info ! I lost 7 properties in the 2008 insanity ! tried to fight banks for the fraud , all courts , lawyers were all in lock step with banks 😪😪😪😥😞what a sham
North Glendale AZ has the highest concentration of millionaires in the valley. South Glendale not so much. North Peoria vs south or older Peoria. There is sooo much money in north Peoria. Gilbert also has a high concentration of big companies and well to do residents. Chandler being more middle class older neighborhoods. 2 weeks supply in Maricopa county ensures that it will take a while for any price dips. Maybe 24 months at least.
Thank you for doing all the research you do. By far you do the best research on you tube. Do you have any thoughts on Eastern Tennessee, I'm looking to move there and buy there!!!! Thank you
I’ve used some of your research to purchase another rental in Phoenix (Peoria), 5.6 miles from Statefarm stadium. This is my second in the last 2 years. I’ve not had any issues renting these units at over $2k price point.
Congrats on your new purchase. I have the same idea of what you do too with the thought of potential growth around the loop 303 area. Please share your experience in this rental purchase, any good realtor to recommend? Thanks.
@Bonnie Robinson water correct. I bought my condo 18 months ago and prices went up 40%. They announced an issue with water for farmers, meanwhile they are building houses like crazy. I am out sometime next year. It gets down to 30 degrees in winter & 115 degrees every day for months. My electric bill is $105 a month with the best plan.
@@ReventureConsulting Great map. Would love to know who exactly is buying/can afford here in Southern California (San Diego native here). I have watched everything go up for many years but I never thought it could get this crazy so fast. Our little family home bought in 1957 at 15K is approaching a million. Sad to see once nice family neighborhoods go down hill because of so many renters and slum lords at the same time overbuilding everywhere.
I don't know why you would just assume that this housing crash would affect low income housing more than high income housing. Last crash was caused at least in part by sub-prime mortgage writing. That shouldn't be a problem this time. The housing in the low income areas of Phoenix still looks quite reasonable compared to the $2M homes in the upper crust areas. Sure, the poverty is abysmal, but the poor have to have subsidies to afford any housing at all.
There is a new home builder by my house when they stared building the homes were around 350,000 that was about 8 months ago I just say there prices the other day they are know 604,000 the pay here is Phoenix can’t support that
Another factor of the housing shortage is running out of buildable land. Only 15% of AZ land is privately owned. Vast areas were built to the boundaries in 2008. So with land shortages, prices go up. And a huge amount of Buyers are cash buyers that don't need a loan like what drove the market on 2005-07.
A lot of good data here, but not much talk about interest rates in this video. I think that is one of the biggest factors in the huge price surge right now.
Living in the west valley, there is extreme business growth as AZ make its easy to do business… couple this with the exodus from California, we’ve seen a boom. Our home just sold with 8 offers, ALL we above asking price with the buyer coming from out of state. This is different than 2008.
Don’t underestimate the availability of infrastructure especially water and energy that will curtail employment expansion. It’s an existential crisis. I spent a career charting real estate growth and I’ve never seen a more threatened growth curve
Right, not to mention heat index is doomed to get worse and worse with the amount of AC kicking around hot air and units piled on top of units… global warming is a massive existential crisis for phoenix and its surrounding communities. Energy can be harvested by more homes moving to solar panels, which by far is the smartest investment to the average Phoenix homeowner considering that the price of electricity in Phoenix is approximately a mortgage in some rural midwestern towns. The issue here is the rental companies that want to buy up all the homes and not add necessary upgrades like solar panels to homes or newer more efficient air conditioning. I feel like if local law makers would enforce these upgrades as necessary before a home could be rented, this could thwart the currently inevitable crisis of company competition along with the overuse of energy. However, this will likely never happen as arizona has some of the most lax landlord laws of most states. Including allowing endless and unnecessary fees to the cost of monthly rentals. Help save the environment and renters livelihoods and vote for some rental restrictions on large rental corporations. We cannot rely on large corps like OnQ, Tricon, and Mainstreet to do the right thing.
It's pretty sad to see the quality of work on some of these properties in Phoenix that are considered "quick flips". They can't even get the paint colors to match, texture on walls is messed up, based boards look beat, yet the house is on the market for + $400k. It's going to be interesting to see what happens here in the Phoenix market. Also, great video, keep them coming....
Nick can you cover the Sacramento Metro Area? That includes Sacramento, Placer,, El Dorado Counties. Huge influx of Bay Area migration and price increases, as well as huge increases in building. Thanks
I’d be curious how many permits are now In play in AZ! Just in my community alone their are so many new builds which I feel is strange to see every single home at the same stage with just framing up. Typically You will see homes being in different stages From start to finish 😳
More excellent analysis... thanks! Would love to see a work up on SW Florida (Gulf Side) Cape Coral / Fort Myers area. That area was hit hard during last downturn but recovered pretty well; though it took some time. Home prices there are back to high levels. Curios to see your take on that area.
I heard that the Florida cities, like Tampa market is getting popular. I used to live there and knew the last crash was a big blow to Tampa and has taken >10 years to get to the same level. Is that true and what's your take on that? Thanks.
Sun city is probably safe to buy in as theres pretty much always a new set of older people looking to move to Phoenix, the snow bird population as I believe its called. Even the larger inventory would probably be offset by the continued influx of new old people. Would be interested to see the median age over the years for that area to make my claims supported or not though, just is a thought.
The quality of the inventory is not good in Phx. Shoddy construction. Lots of "flipping". I looked at multiple homes there in 2019, they were ALL in terrible condition. Bought elsewhere!
Probably for the best. The city is on the verge of a water crisis and climate change is predicted to make the city so hot that it’ll be deadly to live here in the summer months in the very near future. When that happen I don’t think a lot of people will want to call it home anymore.
Thanks for the comment Melissa! I did a Vegas video about 3 months back. Check video history! High level: concerns over big job losses figures that are currently being hidden from real estate market by moratoriums.
Oh nice! Sorry I must have missed it but I’ll go back and look for it. I noticed the high job loss in one of your previous videos and was concerned about that. I know Vegas is appealing to people from other states who are now able to work from home as well as entrepreneurs. However I didn’t think the migration was enough to avoid a potential crash or correction.
Rent prices are so high it’s forcing people to buy homes if they qualify even though they didn’t really want to. Almost forced! rental home prices are about $2000-$2500 for an average 3bedroom!
I moved to Tucson from San Jose 5 years ago - and have finally acclimated to the heat. I imagine myself as tough guy.... But then I look at Phoenix, which is even hotter than Tucson, and I hear them saying “hold my beer you wuss”
I love all the data! I’d like to request a video on Santa Cruz County California. It is highly affected by what’s happening in silicon Valley but as a vacation town it has its own unique variables as well… Thank you!
Absolutely outstanding video! A few questions: 1. What website are you using for the zip code map data? 2. You say a 20% correction is possible. I’m thinking of buying around September 2022. If you were to guess would you think that correction would happen before then?
Some of the high poverty rates in mid-phoenix area you showed may be due to the many apartments of inner city living. The dark green high value homes you show are historic districts with homes re-done and occupied by 30+ to 40 year olds with families. They are pockets through out phoenix like that. Nice neighborhoods, beautifully remodeled homes.
Live in Phoenix, the house prices are definitely not supported by the jobs market and pay.
But the rent
Thanks for the local insight!
The rents out there are outrageous. I mean, I'm in Denver which is much worse but there's higher paying jobs here. Phoenix is/was supposed to be my escape. Not anymore.
@@lancelotlink3907 who told you this story? Sounds like a fairy tale
@@lancelotlink3907 I think the Chinese may be growing wary of investing too much in the US given tensions between both Countries.
I've lived in PHX for over 30 years and have lived through the boom-bust cycle. This one feels different. Your content is excellent with good underlying data. THANK YOU!
May I ask: different in what way?
Feels? What feels different and why
My guess is because lending standards are high now, plus the fact that you have had a wave of remote workers (many in tech) moving to the Phoenix area.
@@Mike95lude I think lending standards are hard to qualify when you have regular people with multiple investment properties. If they haven’t built solid reserves a quick down then might change their ability to weather the storm
The prior bubble was based on pure speculation and liar loans. This housing boom has that but lending standards, at least for individual buyers, are much higher. In Phoenix they have large amounts of people fleeing California and Washington State with cash in hand. The politics in those states will continue to decline so tax payers in there will continue to flee those states. Also there's massive job creation in Phoenix of well paying jobs really and that is drawing people from everywhere. So unless the job creation or the influx from leftist states ends I don't see Phoenix going down anytime soon. But all of this is dependent on the FED keeping the house of cards they created afloat.
As a 62 year old guy , and 32 years of rentals, this is a smart guy . His other videos are spot on too. He knows how to do the research!!
Agreed... lot better than most of highly paid talking heads pushing narratives.
@@daviddixon1611 watch a few more of his videos to see just how sharp he is. And he doesn’t blow his own horn to see all the great deals he’s done. And all the hype and flash of the phonies on you tube, trying to build a name for themselves. This guy is like a research expert for a big bank or something. Down to earth and old school. My wife and I have been putting one of our yearly incomes into phoenix rentals and living on 1 income for decades. I sold all but 3 properties the past 2 years. And I was going to go buy 7-10 more in Omaha or Oklahoma City. So I could stay with the rule of 1 percent. But health issues change of plans. 80 percent of the people on you tube are blow hards . Trying to get a following like the rich dad poor dad guy. Or the hundreds of smoke and mirrors people. This guy is just plain smart. Nobody has a crystal ball in real estate or mutual funds etc . But you take a calculated risk and hold on. This guy gives advice it’s taken me 30 years to learn. And he gives it in a humble way. Not like look at me I make millions a year. He’s a master of real estate research. That leads to sound business decisions. He’s the real deal .
@@daveandersen2484 Agreed. Have watched quite a few of his postings recently. I'm just a bit younger than you; but not much. Don't claim expertise; but I've been paying attention to economics / real estate / investing issues for several decades. Just having a command of basics has served me well. Making good and bad choices over several decades gives a person a decent understanding, command, and perspective. Great communicators are also great simplifiers. His presentations are very understandable, even for a layman. This guy does the hard grunt work getting to the fundamentals. Getting the right information in the "information age" can be like trying to get a drink of water from a fire hose, with a paper cup. Information isn't the obstacle; critical thinking is.... This guy seem to me to be an ace critical thinker; I hope he has success. Best of luck to you in your endeavors... Thanks for the chat.
@@daveandersen2484 Id Love to have a conversation with you.
@@wmjessemiller thanks, what do you want to talk about?
Phoenix used to be so affordable. People who moved from Cali as well as other states back in early 2000’s could easily relocate there.
Now the wealthier Cali people moved here and turned that to an unaffordable market.
Ive talked to tons of locals who can barely afford to live there.
Several who had to move into bad dangerous neighborhoods,.
The income gap is blatant.
@@sailingaeolus My thoughts exactly
@@sailingaeolus Don't want to interrupt your liberal hatred rant but "rich liberals" aren't moving to Arizona. The demographic moving to Arizona are retirees, lower middle income middle aged but modestly house rich Californians and Arizonians that lived in Cali for a job moving back to buy their first time home.
Gross. Screw California
CA native here, I moved out because I was priced out of the state that I grew up in and loved. I moved to an actual house rather than an apartment that was built 50 years ago and twice the price as a house in AZ. I am by no means rich. I’m looking for space to raise my family in that is affordable. I think many millennials are at that point in their life right now. I love AZ and from what I have seen in my area there are a lot like me who are also moving out here without liberal views even if they are from CA. The people buying up homes in mass are not necessarily people but rather corporations buying up many homes at a time and renting them out. It’s easy to blame the state next door but look into it and you will see that there are a lot of foreign investors that have their money in the game.
@@staceyruff2966 America should pass a law that prohibits foreigners from owning property in the domestic market
I think once the non-Phoenix natives experience the summer heat... we will see how many stay
Good point! I think many people who made big moves in 2020-21 will end up regretting/reversing their decisions. Already seeing it here in Austin.
That is a funny point!! 😂
It used to be thst for every 3 people moving in 2 move back out however that doesn't seem to apply any longer
It’s interesting to see people realize they live in the middle of a desert.
We keep hoping that in Idaho, wishing for an extreme winter which we haven't had in 4 years...sadly.
My rent just went up 20% in one year in Phoenix. In 3.5 years, rents have gone up 56%. The cost of living is really going up here.
Phoenix is my market and you were completely spot on. Thank you!
LOL - homes are NOT going down 20%. Increases will slow down - but with all the new businesses coming here - we will continue to have a robust market. You will be waiting forever if you think prices are going to drop much, if any.
@@davisholman8149 Absolutely agree. I don't see any downturn anytime soon. Too many large corporations moving into the state...along with the Cali people.
1.7M people in 1980. Over 6M people now. Developers and cities have destroyed the area. I'm retired now and it's a shame to see how the recreational areas have been completely destroyed or are so crowded you have more room in your condo parking space.....
@DRich1 this is 2021 buddy- not the same
Just moved from Arizona back to the Midwest to be closer to family. Was there for almost 20 years. The Phoenix real estate market is interesting and there are a number of factors causing the increase in prices in that market: low inventory which you have mentioned, (people moving to AZ from Cali but also from other areas like WA, OR and IL to get away from high taxes and crime) cheap money circulating around and real estate investors. The later is the one that concerns me. When we sold our home we had multiple offers within 2 days. One of them was an investment company from CA that was buying a lot of houses in my subdivisions, as well as other subdivisions throughout the Phoenix area. They were outbidding families and either turning it to rental, or flipping. Similar to what Zillow has been doing in other parts in AZ. I have no idea how it will turn out, but I can't shake the feeling of an implosion of sorts. Having lived through the crash in AZ, I do see similar signs of a repeat to the extant that prices are going up way too fast and people can't afford them. AZ use to be affordable, but not anymore. Will there be a bubble or correction by 50%? Who knows, but it doesn't look or smell right. Just my .02
Thank you for the comment and local insight! You bring up a lot of great points. Often analyzing behavior can be even more revealing than looking at data. The surge in investor demand/flipping is often the sign of a bubble peak.
I agree with you Grappaling guy. Im in the market everyday and I feel like there are to many different things contributing to the crazy prices which in my opinion makes this market very volatile.
Speculation eventually pulls the rug out from underneath the market. I'm selling into the market in Denver. Going to travel in the RV for a while and see if it shakes out such that I can go bargain hunting next year. Roll of the dice, but I feel pretty confident. I'm going to look in the Midwest, too. I like the woods of Indiana.
@@nikmills I listed and sold a families home who purchased a huge travel trailer and parked it next to the lake. They have a boat and jet skis and spend lots of their free time enjoying them. Im guessing they felt like it was a good time to get out and wait and buy again.
Phoenix native - have been waiting to buy a house since April. Homes going on market now have been sitting in the market longer compared to April/May, but the prices are still over their values especially for older homes.
Thanks for feedback Arielle! I have noticed a slowdown as well in the data. But will probably take some time for it show up in prices.
Who sets the values? You?? NO- THE MARKET DOES - Welcome to reality, snowflake
Also a native. Agreed. Not to mention how many people are in line for decent homes. I've been in offers, but nothing. Not only are a lot of people moving here, but some of them with all cash.
In Phoenix there are a few great things that people don’t know about and I will list them
1. We have a very stable military population
2. We have a huge student population with colleges and universities
3. We will always have a huge snowbird population
These are the constants
New drivers of the economy are
1. Tons of new companies arriving in the west valley, Boeing, Amazon and others building along the 303 and 202 highways because it was farmland that has now been purchased for homes and large industries
2. We have EVERY major sports team in the valley that people don’t know, hockey, basketball, football, race track, golf and many more that people are moving for
3. We just passed a flat state tax of 2.5 which will be very attractive to companies.
Phoenix and Glendale have always been poverty and it’s the oldest area of the valley. The East and west valleys are growing with major businesses coming in from WA, CA and OR.
Thanks for your insight. Do you think the north Glendale or north Peoria has good growth potential? As you mentioned, what neighborhood will the Loop 303/202 developing area encompass actually?
I think your possible decline of 20% is spot on. That type of decline would bring things back to reality. They may not be building as many new houses as they were in the past, but we still have massive amounts of land that is empty and buildable. If material prices come down, then they can ramp up construction quickly. Our biggest issue is going to be water to sustain the population growth. Phoenix is also a huge secondary home market. There is a lot of inventory that can come to the market from what we call snow birds.
Thanks for the comment Sebastian! You bring up a great point on vacation ownership. The more owners who are either investors or part-time occupants, the more that inventory can spike and prices decline.
@@ReventureConsulting These snow birds also tend to be older individuals. They will eventually move to long term care homes or die. Phoenix was attractive for them because the cost of living was so low. Recently that has changed and the cost of living is getting more expensive. In my opinion, Phoenix housing used to be undervalued. Currently it is overvalued. A correction of 15-25% would bring it back to a fair value.
Phoenix is beautiful but the drought situation is real. Colorado river reservoirs (Lake Mead and Lake Powell) are at 30% and cannot sustain the population growth.
You got land but no water.
@@tutttutt9558 Sort of. Almost everyone has a pool here and there are locations that have created man man waterways and lakes. That's a lot of water usage, but it has limits with the explosive growth we are seeing.
Got that right escaseyburn. I lived in Phoenix most of my life bur most of the time worked out of state or overseas where my salary was 3 to 10 times what I could earn in Phoenix. Retired in 2013 at age 55 and immediately moved to Panama. Lived in Ecuador, Nicaragua and for more than 4 years Costa Rica. I rent a 7 bedroom/5 bath house with 4 car garage on 23 acres for $161 a month. My electric runs between $12 and $15 a month. And it never has been colder than 55F or hotter than 87. Needless to say I won't be returning to Phoenix, Arizona or the US.
What is the your outlook now ? almost a year since your prior analysis ? What site do you see this per zip code appreciation, proverty rates etc ?
I hope so. I’ll pick one up cheap. The fresh meat buying frenzy should halt soon. Paying 500k for something that was 200k two years ago is fools errand.
I’ve been in the Phoenix metro for 30 years. The 2005 bust was exacerbated by a lack of diversification of the jobs market which was heavily dependent on real estate. Since then, both the public and private sectors have worked to diversify the economy. I think this analysis needs to take a deeper dive into job growth in order to provide a more accurate forecast of demand.
Good points Mark! Phoenix has a much lower share of employment in construction this time around. Which is why I don't think another 50% downturn is likely.
This is hands down the best real estate content out there. Please do an analysis of the Baltimore market.
I live in a western Phoenix suburb. Housing prices are fueled by being one of the first cities Californians encounter as they travel from LA to PHX. Californians regularly knock on my door offering unbelievable amounts of cash for my home which is not on the market. Many employers are moving here from other states and from overseas paying good salaries which also increases home prices.
I’m in Goodyear bud. It’s crazy!
To add a little context: 85034 and 85040 are largely the hood!! I used to live in 85040 that’s south Phoenix, parts of it are being gentrified which explains the poverty. You’ll see nice homes being built in the middle of the hood nowadays plus some newer (gated) developments sandwiched between older neighborhoods. Which explains that disparity there
Sun city is definitely retirement town! A lot of 55+ only communities
And we personally bought in Gilbert before the pandemic hit, seen lots of appreciation here in this suburban city
All accurate info! Great data 👍🏾👍🏾
Although South Phoenix is all newly built and doesn't look anything like the hood anymore!
My neighborhood which has older houses are being flipped and sold for over 400 500 and 600,000 dollars! Nothing special being done to the homes no bells or whistles but because of costs out makes the house prices crazy too! When you flip a 50 60 year old house you basically gutting it adding new roof new A/C possibly re plumbing re wiring. Its pricy
Thank you! You were confirming some thoughts or feelings I was having about Phoenix, a lot of which came from what I have learned from watching your past videos. Your videos are really great as you are a great presenter and your info seem quite honest and right on as it's facts based, less biased. You have the right tone, statement, timing, keep it up, and thank you for digesting data into and sharing with everyone. (You don't know how many terrible real estate presenters there are, I literally can't stand to watch them speak, and a lot of them biased with more personal agendas.) Thanks for doing this!
Well said Angela !! Most of these Real estate You tubers have huge agendas. I bought a Home in Maricopa AZ in 2006. Multiple realtors and Lenders told me there is no Bubble because people Keep moving to The Phx Area. They were all wrong. My home went as low as 60 k from 230 k ….
I really appreciate These videos
You have to look at the water shortage in the southwest. Lake Meade is below what it was in the 1930s when Hoover Dam was built.
Just bought a house in Glendale. I rented it for years and negotiated for what the house would have been worth if we weren’t in this crazy market, basically what we thought prices would drop back to when they go back down. Thankfully our landlord was a great guy who was willing to work with us. If housing prices drop by 20% it will put the prices right back to what we actually paid for our house which is exactly what we estimated and aimed for.
I'm curious what you ended up paying. The rental rates are getting insane here in mesa. They are wanting to push my rent up basically $400 in one go which is insane for a renewal. I've never had an increase over $50 to $75 in a renewal period with several different property owners.
@@TheRealEnate we paid $260,000 but you won’t find that anywhere anymore.
@@sugoiharris1348 Yea its insane right now they are gradually just pricing everything like its old California out here or something. I might just have to look at leaving the state after this. They just keep pricing anyone out of everything if you not making 90 plus k a year the way its going.
Just FYI: those orange areas in the last map, such as Sun City, Sun City West, and Sun City Grand, are retirement communities. Meaning you cannot buy a home there unless you are above 60. Usually with a reverse mortgage. You drive around in golf carts.
Correction to your statement. The minimum age in Sun City and SCW is 55, SCG is 45. You cannot buy a home with a reverse mortgage. Most people in these communities have planned well for their retirement and pay cash for their homes or take small mortgages. And yes, most have golf carts. And your point?????
@@nangee2990 Thank you, I stand corrected. My point? Just explaining why those areas had a higher average age.
55 years old
I live here in Phoenix and they are building everything everywhere
It's nice to see the supply numbers but it's only 1 factor of supply and demand. A factor that combines both into one is Supply of Listings. If no houses were added to the listings then the time it would take for them to sell is the Supply of Listings.
The current Supply of Listings is around 1 month for the Phoenix area. This is at an all-time low. So not only is inventory increasing but the houses are being bought up in relation to the increase in supply. The demand is higher than the supply even now.
Great video, thx for creating!
Which software do you use to overlay the maps with demographic data?
FYI, sun city and suncity west are age restricted adult communities.
Phoenix homeowner, my take: Phoenix's housing market is solid per the absolute influx of....out of state buyers. Specifically those who are coming from more expensive real estate markers.
In addition, there's a building material shortage (maximum building cost) that's not going away anytime soon to build more homes.
Also the problem with your "high growth doesn't equal good housing markets" is completely flawed by being a national issue per banks irresponsibly handing out unqualified individuals mortgages left and right. What took place at ~9:40 per the years ~06/07 was per the lenders and less to do with localized city situations.
Sold our Mesa Az. home in February........Purchased Sept. 2014=$159,900..........Sold Feb.2021=$389,000........Took the money and ran back to Texas. Thanks California!
Arizona native here, just bought for my first time (purchased a new build townhouse in phx) and bought @300k 3 months ago, as of today is priced @350k. Praying that if there is a dip, it’s not to steep 🤞🏼
You should put links to all your graphs that you use for context so people in these areas can do deeper dives if they want to! Good info all around tho!
My request is, North Atlanta including Alpharetta, Suwannee, Roswell, Cumming, Milton, Johns creek, Duluth, Sandy Springs, Dunwoody
Don't forget Canton
ditto
He has done Atlanta!
Do you think the same analysis applies to surrounding cities like Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, Cave Creek, etc? Or do people who buy in those areas tend to be more willing and able to pay for the location?
Good question! I think those areas will be a bit more insulated from a downturn, just like they are last time. But when a city gets hit hard, all areas tend to go down in price.
I believe you are talking about the Phoenix area. Most of the crazy growth prior to the last bust was actually in the smaller cities around Phoenix for single family homes. A new build will take nearly 10 months to build right now.
Thank you ... Excellent Insights !! Migration can really pickup if the Tech Market Booms and Phoenix becomes a center of Fintech on the west coast. I read somewhere that there are plans to develop the Tuscan - Phoenix Corridor into a Tech Economic Zone. Given California's problems specifically the belt between LA and Silicon Valley on the Coast, chances of higher migration cannot be ruled out.
I am so glad I purchased my 1st home in 2018 sold it, made almost 200k off of it and purchased an investment home.
I don’t know if anyone has commented on this, but the property taxes in the Phoenix Metro area are very low compared to other places. I have a 1666 square foot house in South Scottsdale. My property taxes are 130 a month. This could also make a difference in people paying higher prices for homes.
That's a good point! Phoenix does have low property taxes, which provides a bit more incentive to own v. rent. However, the low property taxes didn't stop the 2008 freight train from hitting!
Great video, thank you! I bought a house in Chandler in 2015 and it's done great. Was thinking of purchasing a second house in Gilbert and this video helps a lot.
You got it half right….. as someone who has been here a LONG time I can tell you your not factored in the “ exodus” when the crash happens. In 2009-2013 this place was a ghost 👻 town. All the Californians who invaded my home last go around split when times got tuff and went back home. It was great 👍!!! And I see all the same stuff as I did last time just MORE of it! Over building massive traffic skyrocketing prices on everything. And the wages in the state are 10 years behind the curve. A 400k house is NOT sustainable or realistic. You say 50% not likely……… I say 50% certainly! And I’m putting my money on it. Keep up the good videos.
Thank you for the local perspective Joe! Love that local insight.
I hope you are right because all the Californians are making AZ purple. It should be a Red State. If there is a 50% drop in home prices, then I will be coming to make the state redder!
@@tc970106 definitely welcome conservatives to our state! Hope all the blue calis go back where they came from 🤣
@@ZoeLyn-oj1kj Haha, I'm a conservative in CA and would love to trade places with some of those Cali liberals in AZ. I've been dreaming about moving to AZ to vote for DJT in 2024...so hopefully my dream will come true!
@@tc970106 conservatives from anywhere are welcome! Got bless you and hope your dream come true!
Love you videos, can you make a video on the Housing Market for Las Vegas, NV if its best to buy or wait for a crash
There won't be a crash anytime soon. Nevada doesn't have as bad water problems as AZ or CA. Next year AZ will need to cut water use by a lot. Year after that, CA turn. Nevada's share is only 4% and there won't really be cuts.
I relocated from Chicago 04/2019 and saw many homes and was disappointed to see how AZ real estate had took a turn. I’m noticing houses are lasting a little longer in market and pricing is settling as well. It’s refreshing and exciting to witness the greed is slowing down. Chandler/ Gilbert/ Tempe and Northside of Pheonix is still hot! Thanks for all the info.
Oklahoma City, OK.
I'm buying a place in Mustang, OK. Basically surrounded by incorporated Oklahoma City. Mustang is basically 2 miles x 12 miles in total. Looking forward to your numbers on that area. I appreciate your expertise.
Bought my house in San Tan Valley in Oct. 17' at 208k and am selling for 415k tomorrow. Over a 100% gain in 4 years is absurd. I doubt we will see a downturn but I wouldn't doubt it cools off immensely for now and starts correcting in the next 5 years.
I would love to see what Tucson’s numbers look like. Great content! Thank you for the work you put in to your Chanel!
I'd like to see Tucson Az. I've seen values sky rocket! Tucson is about 2 hrs south of Phoenix.
Hey it really sucks here in Tucson for the housing market
30% in one month in my neighborhood, which has low inventory. One condo went on the market for $90k over last month 186k when there was 0 inventory. Now there are like 7 houses priced between $210k and $275k. This is the end of the buying season in Tucson and I wonder what will happen in the next few months.
@@JohnDouqh so what’s the problem with the Tucson housing market in your opinion?
@@JonNobleNobelOne I’m certainly not an expert but I’d say an influx of out of state butters combined with greed and seasonal supply and demand fluctuations. So during the buying season which I think is like April through august inventory will drop and some greedy owner will list his property at way above market value. Then out of state buyer buys it anyways because it’s still less than what he sold his California home for. This sets a new value in the comparisons driving prices higher than wages can support.
Amazing job u did with plethora of data u showed. U are correct on all of it.
You did leave out a big piece of the market that has affected housing’s increased prices. Big business are building in Goodyear at an insane level since 2017-2018. Amazon, Boeing, rei, really just too many to count. OHHH and…2 Taiwanese microchip manufactures will be building and producing in the west valley.
In addition to businesses migrating ,Thousands of people r migrating because of the job availability. In my opinion this growth has caused the cost of living for natives to skyrocket.
Our younger adults can no longer afford the housing that remains available.
IF the housing market declines, it could be the later part of 5years?Housing demand in the west valley is critical at this moment. Home builders are just now, in 2021 catching on to the massive population/business migration’s need for housing.
When do you project the greater RENO area is going to be covered as I am going there in about 5 weeks for a closer look. Thank you for the great data references and how to use the data. Very refreshing vs all the prognostications with little or no backup.
Thank you for watching"
For help on how to grow your investment/portfolio'
💌T•e•x•t•• m•e///W•h•a•t•s•a•p•p•• +1••{2•2•5•}•7•2•6•6•1•4•2•••...
Bought my house in Surprise for $200k 4 years ago. Comps are over $350k now. Might move back to Lancaster, PA in 1 year. Thought about jumping out and renting during that year but rent prices have grown at the same rate. Hoping the market won’t plummet before we move. The market in Lancaster is not out of control like it is here. Input or advice? Thanks.
Northeast/Midwest is a slower moving market with less appreciation but also likely less of a crash when things go down.
@@ReventureConsulting Very true. Thanks for the replay. I'm very nervous about a crash beginning early in 2022 before I have a chance to sell here in Surprise, AZ.
We have very strict landlord friendly laws here making it very easy to get evicted for just about anything with very little recourse. A lot of people are moving here and renting until they can buy, but they don't understand our laws. An eviction on your credit is brutal for both renting and buying. I wonder how much this will play into our market.
Thanks for the comment Mary! That's an interesting point.
Hi Nick; maybe the LV area such as Henderson, Summerlin, or even including Pahrump.
Again we appreciate all your hard work. Can you do the state of Illinois, Chicago surrounding suburbs thank you.
Born and raised in Phoenix area (53 years) and have seen it all. While most of this is on point I would say the parallels to '08 are smaller than one would think. Construction of homes was the #1 employer for many years and the financial crisis made that go to almost zero. Today Phoenix metro is second only to Austin for high tech companies relocating or expanding and bring a younger, more educated demographic that earns a decent income. Covid broke the dam of reasons to stay in Cali and that state will be bleeding high earners for the foreseeable future. Large % come here as it is still close enough to be connected to family back in California. 2cents
Yup
Appreciate the perspective Beau!
The age demographic in Surprise is changing with large family developments being built. I just bought a house in one of these developments (new construction) and I am probably in the minority for age (50+). This development is being expanded and other developments are opening up closer to Wittman.
One reason I would avoid Phoenix metro area is water shortages. The Colorado river is at historic low levels and aquifers are also very low. Water rationing could be in the near future if the drought situation doesn't change.
Great information, I just found your channel and am soaking up the information. Please consider doing a video on Las Vegas/Henderson. I was there for the last downturn, which was substantial, and am curious if this one is going to be as bad.
Would love to know what too. I live here in vegas and am priced out. I would assume vegas his highly speculative like Phoenix. Let's see how many ppl can take 115 deg summers lol.
I bought my house here in Phoenix in 2014 for 120K , refinanced last year and in 2020 was asses at 250K... Something deep down tells me something is wrong with that.. Cant put my finger on it, but it just doesnt seem right..
What feels off? What area Phx?
@@Avocadotoastin Im by the 202/101... It just doesnt seem sustainable.. They are building much more rental apartments than actual house, maybe thats whats fueling it.
I would so love if you did one of these for North Las Vegas / Las Vegas / Henderson - Fun to see you break cities down like this!
Thanks Tim! I did Vegas about 2 months ago. Check video history.
I am only 5mins into the video, however this helps re-confirm my belief. I lived in AZ from 04-13 and just returned in Oct of 2020. I am a former Californian until 14yrs old, but have family roots here in AZ. I know this sounds grim, I do wish there was a major market correction!! +-30-40% I think realistically it will be 12-15% when it is all done and settled, however the people who got in early enough and stayed in will/have won!! I wish I would have pulled the Triger/ had capital when I was 19/20 yrs old. -"There is always another sucker to be sold" - We need to go back to the thoughts of Value vs Price!!
Good info ! I lost 7 properties in the 2008 insanity ! tried to fight banks for the fraud , all courts , lawyers were all in lock step with banks 😪😪😪😥😞what a sham
North Glendale AZ has the highest concentration of millionaires in the valley. South Glendale not so much. North Peoria vs south or older Peoria. There is sooo much money in north Peoria. Gilbert also has a high concentration of big companies and well to do residents. Chandler being more middle class older neighborhoods. 2 weeks supply in Maricopa county ensures that it will take a while for any price dips. Maybe 24 months at least.
The only affordable housing available in most areas seems to be in prisons.
They are building homes in Florence now. Have been for a while.
Thank you for doing all the research you do.
By far you do the best research on you tube.
Do you have any thoughts on Eastern Tennessee, I'm looking to move there and buy there!!!!
Thank you
I’ve used some of your research to purchase another rental in Phoenix (Peoria), 5.6 miles from Statefarm stadium. This is my second in the last 2 years. I’ve not had any issues renting these units at over $2k price point.
How is Peoria, I also looked at this area?
Congrats on your new purchase. I have the same idea of what you do too with the thought of potential growth around the loop 303 area. Please share your experience in this rental purchase, any good realtor to recommend? Thanks.
I love your detail search in every different areas 🙏🙏🙏🙏 it helps me lot 👍👍👍👍
Thank you
@Bonnie Robinson water correct. I bought my condo 18 months ago and prices went up 40%. They announced an issue with water for farmers, meanwhile they are building houses like crazy. I am out sometime next year. It gets down to 30 degrees in winter & 115 degrees every day for months. My electric bill is $105 a month with the best plan.
Do you create your own interactive maps? That was cool being able to cursor over individual zip code data.
Great question! I use Tableau graphing software to create maps with underlying data from Zillow/US Census Bureau.
@@ReventureConsulting That's awesome work!
@@ReventureConsulting Great map.
Would love to know who exactly is buying/can afford here in Southern California (San Diego native here). I have watched everything go up for many years but I never thought it could get this crazy so fast. Our little family home bought in 1957 at 15K is approaching a million. Sad to see once nice family neighborhoods go down hill because of so many renters and slum lords at the same time overbuilding everywhere.
GIS
I don't know why you would just assume that this housing crash would affect low income housing more than high income housing. Last crash was caused at least in part by sub-prime mortgage writing. That shouldn't be a problem this time. The housing in the low income areas of Phoenix still looks quite reasonable compared to the $2M homes in the upper crust areas. Sure, the poverty is abysmal, but the poor have to have subsidies to afford any housing at all.
There is a new home builder by my house when they stared building the homes were around 350,000 that was about 8 months ago I just say there prices the other day they are know 604,000 the pay here is Phoenix can’t support that
Wow. Crazy. Thanks for the local insight!
Goodyear?
Another factor of the housing shortage is running out of buildable land. Only 15% of AZ land is privately owned. Vast areas were built to the boundaries in 2008. So with land shortages, prices go up. And a huge amount of Buyers are cash buyers that don't need a loan like what drove the market on 2005-07.
I would love to see East Tennessee. Knoxville and East. We already know Nashville but what about the eastern portion?
A lot of good data here, but not much talk about interest rates in this video. I think that is one of the biggest factors in the huge price surge right now.
Living in the west valley, there is extreme business growth as AZ make its easy to do business… couple this with the exodus from California, we’ve seen a boom. Our home just sold with 8 offers, ALL we above asking price with the buyer coming from out of state. This is different than 2008.
Live in phoenix. Some prices are going down but it's still higher than what most can afford.
Can you do the Southern California market? Los Angeles/ Orange County?
Don’t underestimate the availability of infrastructure especially water and energy that will curtail employment expansion. It’s an existential crisis. I spent a career charting real estate growth and I’ve never seen a more threatened growth curve
Right, not to mention heat index is doomed to get worse and worse with the amount of AC kicking around hot air and units piled on top of units… global warming is a massive existential crisis for phoenix and its surrounding communities. Energy can be harvested by more homes moving to solar panels, which by far is the smartest investment to the average Phoenix homeowner considering that the price of electricity in Phoenix is approximately a mortgage in some rural midwestern towns. The issue here is the rental companies that want to buy up all the homes and not add necessary upgrades like solar panels to homes or newer more efficient air conditioning. I feel like if local law makers would enforce these upgrades as necessary before a home could be rented, this could thwart the currently inevitable crisis of company competition along with the overuse of energy. However, this will likely never happen as arizona has some of the most lax landlord laws of most states. Including allowing endless and unnecessary fees to the cost of monthly rentals. Help save the environment and renters livelihoods and vote for some rental restrictions on large rental corporations. We cannot rely on large corps like OnQ, Tricon, and Mainstreet to do the right thing.
I just accepted a job in Phoenix, I plan to buy, but I am waiting for the foreclosure wave to hit first
It's pretty sad to see the quality of work on some of these properties in Phoenix that are considered "quick flips". They can't even get the paint colors to match, texture on walls is messed up, based boards look beat, yet the house is on the market for + $400k. It's going to be interesting to see what happens here in the Phoenix market.
Also, great video, keep them coming....
Excellent content. Your data and analysis is top notch.
Thanks Alok!
Nick can you cover the Sacramento Metro Area? That includes Sacramento, Placer,, El Dorado Counties. Huge influx of Bay Area migration and price increases, as well as huge increases in building.
Thanks
I bought a house in fair oaks in January. It’s up $50k already.
I’d be curious how many permits are now In play in AZ! Just in my community alone their are so many new builds which I feel is strange to see every single home at the same stage with just framing up. Typically You will see homes being in different stages From start to finish 😳
More excellent analysis... thanks! Would love to see a work up on SW Florida (Gulf Side) Cape Coral / Fort Myers area. That area was hit hard during last downturn but recovered pretty well; though it took some time. Home prices there are back to high levels. Curios to see your take on that area.
I heard that the Florida cities, like Tampa market is getting popular. I used to live there and knew the last crash was a big blow to Tampa and has taken >10 years to get to the same level. Is that true and what's your take on that? Thanks.
Would like to hear your opinion of where rents will go in the Phoenix market.
Sun city is probably safe to buy in as theres pretty much always a new set of older people looking to move to Phoenix, the snow bird population as I believe its called. Even the larger inventory would probably be offset by the continued influx of new old people. Would be interested to see the median age over the years for that area to make my claims supported or not though, just is a thought.
Thanks for the comment Curtis! An interesting thing to note is that way more people were moving to Phoenix from 2004-06 compared to today.
Dude! Thank you! 😊 been tearing my hair out trying to find the perfect location here in phoenix.
If you want help finding a good location in the Phoenix area I can help. Im a realtor here the past 20 years and have lived here 50+ years.
@@lancelotlink3907 What areas do you love for the price dip coming in Phoenix and do you anticipate a 12-24 month timeframe?
@@sababan1226 Hi Sababa, Is there anyway to communicate in private and I can give you my thoughts on the PHX RE market outlook?
Thanks man I appreciate you doing this legwork for me.
I am glad I decided to start looking for a job in a different state.
The quality of the inventory is not good in Phx. Shoddy construction. Lots of "flipping". I looked at multiple homes there in 2019, they were ALL in terrible condition. Bought elsewhere!
Probably for the best. The city is on the verge of a water crisis and climate change is predicted to make the city so hot that it’ll be deadly to live here in the summer months in the very near future. When that happen I don’t think a lot of people will want to call it home anymore.
I can’t wait to see a video on Las Vegas!
Thanks for the comment Melissa! I did a Vegas video about 3 months back. Check video history!
High level: concerns over big job losses figures that are currently being hidden from real estate market by moratoriums.
Oh nice! Sorry I must have missed it but I’ll go back and look for it.
I noticed the high job loss in one of your previous videos and was concerned about that. I know Vegas is appealing to people from other states who are now able to work from home as well as entrepreneurs. However I didn’t think the migration was enough to avoid a potential crash or correction.
Rent prices are so high it’s forcing people to buy homes if they qualify even though they didn’t really want to. Almost forced! rental home prices are about $2000-$2500 for an average 3bedroom!
Great information!!
Thank you Frank!
Dressed up nice with more incoming business, but still… a hot desert.
I moved to Tucson from San Jose 5 years ago - and have finally acclimated to the heat. I imagine myself as tough guy....
But then I look at Phoenix, which is even hotter than Tucson, and I hear them saying “hold my beer you wuss”
@@GC-kw1gq how is Tucson doing? I’m looking at a MF property and out of state buyer
How about reports on Sarasota and Saint Petersburg, Florida?
I love all the data! I’d like to request a video on Santa Cruz County California. It is highly affected by what’s happening in silicon Valley but as a vacation town it has its own unique variables as well… Thank you!
Thanks for the kind words Sarah! I will be doing a Silicon Valley video very soon and will touch upon Santa Cruz.
Wow! So impressed with your data
Thank you!
Boise Idaho. Going crazy. Stuff going up 50k in less than a month.
Same with Reno
Boise what?
Greed has to be stopped in single family homes.
@@cuteshoesandbags8094 Yeah that's what I said, lol.
@@angry-white-men you know where I was going with my question. It's an old joke, but still funny.
Great Video. Thanks. I am curious on how “average wage “people are affording these housing prices
If you haven’t yet, please do an analysis on Las Vegas? Thank you, sir, awesome content!
Absolutely outstanding video! A few questions:
1. What website are you using for the zip code map data?
2. You say a 20% correction is possible. I’m thinking of buying around September 2022. If you were to guess would you think that correction would happen before then?
Excellent video! Any thoughts on Jacksonville Florida area I'm ready for a deal
Thanks for the info. I live in Gilbert. I was curious what the drop may be.
Of course! Thanks for watching and commenting!
How does it look for 85326. Bought a home in June.
Some of the high poverty rates in mid-phoenix area you showed may be due to the many apartments of inner city living. The dark green high value homes you show are historic districts with homes re-done and occupied by 30+ to 40 year olds with families. They are pockets through out phoenix like that. Nice neighborhoods, beautifully remodeled homes.
Thank you for watching"
For help on how to grow your investment/portfolio'
💌T•e•x•t•• m•e///W•h•a•t•s•a•p•p•• +1••{2•2•5•}•7•2•6•6•1•4•2•••...
Is Tucson in step with Phoenix?