SHINY MONTH: DAY 14 | 7.19.2024

Pokemon Colosseum
Streamed on 7.19.2024
Playlist: • The Most Decorated Qua...
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[@Rot8erConeX]

(On my prior comment like this, in response to my mentioning the spam question, someone asked if I wanted them to ask Tom on Twitter his opinion regarding my comments. I told them yes, and have been avoiding making more comments like this while I wait for Tom's response, but I looked on RUclips today, and my yes response seems to have disappeared. So I'm doing an additional comment like this so they see what I answered, and they have a place to let me know Tom's response.)
28.9522%
Remember, this is not the percent that future Quagsires will be shiny - that chance is still 1/8192, and previous rolls do not change that . This is the chance that, given the number of rolls Tom has done, he would have seen at least one shiny. Obviously, he has not gotten a shiny, so we are in the reality where that 29% did not come to pass.
This chance will never reach 100%. At 8192 resets (what a lot of people call "at odds" because it matches the denominator of the chance fraction), the chance of seeing at least one shiny will only be at 63.214%. But the further he goes it will get higher.
Around 18,862 resets we will reach 90% (let's hope it doesn't get that high!).
It takes until 37,724 resets to get to 99%.
At 56,585 resets we reach 99.9%.
At 75,448 resets we reach 99.99%.
Etc. About every 19k resets we cut the chance of overall failure in ten, but never reach 0.
The function for this is 1-(1-1/8192)^x where x is the number of resets. For those who want to mess with this in a graph setting, I recommend the online graphing calculator Desmos.
(I plan to copy and paste this comment on every future vod until Tom gets the shiny, changing only the percentage up top to match the reset counter at the end of the vod.)