A ‘Big Short’ investor sees financial disaster brewing in housing markets - again

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  • Опубликовано: 12 дек 2024

Комментарии • 325

  • @johnben9
    @johnben9 Год назад +402

    Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Miami in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.

    • @MarkGrimm8
      @MarkGrimm8 Год назад +3

      If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.

    • @Johnlarry12
      @Johnlarry12 Год назад +2

      Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.

    • @suzannehenderson5
      @suzannehenderson5 Год назад +2

      I will be happy getting assistance and glad to get the help of one, but just how can one spot a reputable one?

    • @Johnlarry12
      @Johnlarry12 Год назад +2

      Personally, I can connect to that. When I began working with “Christine Jane Mclean’’ a fiduciary financial counsellor, my advantages were certain. In these circumstances, I would always advise getting professional help so they can steer you through choppy markets and just give you indicators and strategies for knowing when to enter and exit the market.

    • @suzannehenderson5
      @suzannehenderson5 Год назад +2

      Thanks so much I was able to find her page and I already leave her a message..

  • @RaymondKeen.
    @RaymondKeen. Год назад +373

    The fact that there is already an excessive amount of demand awaiting its absorption, despite how everyone is frightened and calling the crash, is another reason why it is less likely to occur that way. 2008 saw no one, at least not the broad public, making this forecast, as I'll explain below. The ownership rate was noted to have peaked in 2004 in the other comment. Having previously peaked in the second quarter of 2020, we are currently at the median level. Between 2008 and 2012, it dropped by 3%, and by the second quarter of 2020, it had dropped from 68 to 65.

    • @nicolasbenson009
      @nicolasbenson009 Год назад

      The issue is this! Most often, those with little to no experience in the stock market attempt to buy on their own. It previously occurred to me, but I learned from it and contacted “Margaret Johnson Arndt” a finance expert with offices in the US, and everything changed. I earned $370k so far in the first quarter of this year.

    • @nicolasbenson009
      @nicolasbenson009 Год назад

      Margaret Johnson Arndt maintains an online presence that can be easily found through a simple search of her name on the internet.

  • @tonysilke
    @tonysilke Год назад +401

    I've been watching the housing market closely, Prices have been skyrocketing for years. It's going to be tough for first-time buyers to enter the market." how can one diversify $280k reserve .

    • @PhilipDunk
      @PhilipDunk Год назад +2

      I agree that rising interest rates are making it harder for consumers to afford homes in addition to rising costs. A strong FA can help you assemble your portfolio.

    • @PatrickLloyd-
      @PatrickLloyd- Год назад +2

      The housing market has always had its ups and downs, but it's true that this time feels different. Having a portfolio manager will save you a lot in the market , My portfolio currently has 200% increase last couple of months with the help of my advisor.

    • @Nernst96
      @Nernst96 Год назад +2

      in times like these, it's crucial to be cautious and not rush into the market , Who is this your FA , my portfolio needs urgent attention , been a lot of lose.

    • @PatrickLloyd-
      @PatrickLloyd- Год назад +2

      There are many financial coaches who excel in their profession, but for the time being, I employ “Vivian Carol Gioia” because I adore her methods. You can make research and find out more.

    • @Nernst96
      @Nernst96 Год назад +2

      Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.

  • @kelvinjohnson4
    @kelvinjohnson4 Год назад +160

    Asking a real estate agent whether you should buy a home right now is like to asking an alcoholic whether they think you should have a drink lol. Homes in my neighborhood that cost around $450k in sales in 2019 are now going for $800 to $950k. Every seller in my neighborhood is currently making a $350k profit. Simply unreal. In all honesty, deflation is what we require. The only other option is for many people to go bankrupt, which would also be bad for the economy. That is the only way to return to normal.

    • @KelvinWallace
      @KelvinWallace Год назад +2

      Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; its best to offset some of your real estate investments and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes. If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.

    • @KelvinWallace
      @KelvinWallace Год назад +2

      Colleen Janie Towe maintains an online presence that can be easily found through a simple search of her name on the internet.

    • @williamsbrown4026
      @williamsbrown4026 Год назад +5

      7% mortgage rates are hardly crazy. I sold real estate when they were 18%.

    • @UshnicYuvnikof
      @UshnicYuvnikof Год назад +2

      But the structure of the economy was different, so there's that.

    • @jenmdawg
      @jenmdawg Год назад

      You have to do better than this, lol. So obvious. @@LionTowercoporation

  • @pirtl_turtl
    @pirtl_turtl Год назад +150

    One of the most helpful tips I learned was to always check the FEMA floodmaps of a property you want to buy

    • @Astrobucks2
      @Astrobucks2 Год назад

      No. FEMA is a corrupt administrative agency. I absolutely do not belive anything they say.

    • @gregleavitt1255
      @gregleavitt1255 Год назад

      FEMA can't keep up with their own floodmaps. 100-yr flood zones are now happening every year. It's anyone's guess from here on out.

    • @annnee6818
      @annnee6818 Год назад +5

      Those can be wrong but it's better than thinking "yay, I'm right next to the beach"

    • @mumuzeze
      @mumuzeze Год назад

      @@annnee6818when I was buying in NYC I cranked the search to 500 year flood and water levels in 2100 to make sure I wasn’t buying in a risky area.

    • @timpenfield5
      @timpenfield5 Год назад

      Right, fires to, I see homes going for 1.4 mil in fire+flood zones. it will happen in that order. burn up, then wash away.

  • @williamyejun8508
    @williamyejun8508 Год назад +5

    People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.

    • @checkforme234
      @checkforme234 Год назад +2

      buy now, home prices will not go lower. If rates drop, you can refinance

    • @williamyejun8508
      @williamyejun8508 Год назад

      this is quite huge ! what have you invested in ? much more info needed please ...

  • @poojalalan
    @poojalalan Год назад +28

    It is in plain sight and yet people seem to be moving to states like Florida in large numbers!!!

    • @Acteaon
      @Acteaon Год назад +7

      Let them move I say.

    • @samuelfranklin9112
      @samuelfranklin9112 Год назад +5

      Many of them don't believe in sea level rise

    • @poojalalan
      @poojalalan Год назад +2

      I just heard that some insurance companies are pulling out of disaster-prone states like California, Florida, Texas, and Louisiana. But, at the same time, three of these four are the biggest economies pulling people in huge numbers for work :-(

  • @john.maynard
    @john.maynard Год назад +62

    Not just flooding, but also wildfires and other natural disasters. We were going to by a place, near the beach, in SoCal, but pulled back because we could not get fire insurance. Carriers do not want to take on the risk.

    • @johnnycastaneda2371
      @johnnycastaneda2371 Год назад +8

      State Farm just stopped writing in California for new fire policies and since they’re the biggest carriers, I suspect others will follow suit to avoid having too much exposure

    • @shanishine38
      @shanishine38 Год назад +3

      ​@Johnny Castaneda At that point, would insurance of uninsurable property not fall on the state? Much like in Florida?

    • @johnnycastaneda2371
      @johnnycastaneda2371 Год назад +5

      @@shanishine38 Yes. We have the California Fair Plan which a program of last resort but even their rates have gone up pretty steep in certain areas

    • @williambarrera4629
      @williambarrera4629 Год назад +4

      @@johnnycastaneda2371 correct. I sell insurance in Texas and seen the report they came out with this morning. Current insureds are gonna be in for a rude awakening when their policies dont renew at renewal time. The state farm rep who was speaking during the interview mentioned this much being something that will happen.

    • @johnnycastaneda2371
      @johnnycastaneda2371 Год назад +3

      @@williambarrera4629 Yes it’s crazy. I own an insurance agency in California and it’s pretty nuts. Everyday UW guidelines are changing

  • @stevewest6133
    @stevewest6133 Год назад +6

    My hometown Bakersfield CA was famous in the last housing bubble when a gang of realtors, mortgage brokers, and straw buyer friends n families colluded to buy and sell properties to each other in ponzi like fashion. They bought and sold dozens of properties, made ridiculous capital gains, and manipulated market prices in an entire zip code. They eventually got caught and went to Federal prison. So I've got to ask.... What happens when private capital funds, hedges, high net worth individuals, and shell LLC's do the exact same thing, except it involves hundreds of thousands of properties, billions of dollars, and the national housing market? Nothing?

  • @Aziz__0
    @Aziz__0 Год назад +108

    In spite of how everyone is frig-htened and calling the crash, there is already an excessive amount of demand waiting to absorb it, which is another reason it's less likely to happen that way. This forecast was not made in 2008, at least not by the general public, as I will explain below. The own-ership rate peaked in 2004, according to the other comment. We reached a peak in the second quarter of 2020 and are currently at the median level. From 2008 to 2012, it fell by 3%, and in the second qua-rter of 2020, it dropped from 68 to 65.

    • @Petroguest-i4g
      @Petroguest-i4g Год назад +2

      Every day we have a new problem. It's the new normal. At first we thought it was a crisis, now we know it's a new normal and we have to adapt. this year will be a year of severe downfall. what steps can we take to generate more income during quantitative adjustment?I can't afford my hard-earned $180,000 savings to turn to dust

    • @devereauxjnr
      @devereauxjnr Год назад +3

      The best course of action if you lack market knowledge is to ask a consultant or investing coach for guidance or assistance. Speaking with a consultant helped me stay afloat in the market and grow my portfolio to about 65% since January, even though I know it sounds obvious or generic. I believe that is the most effective way to enter the business at the moment.

    • @Countstep0099
      @Countstep0099 Год назад +1

      @@devereauxjnr How can I reach this adv-iser of yours?

    • @devereauxjnr
      @devereauxjnr Год назад +2

      @@Countstep0099 credits to Nicole Desiree Simon, one of the best portfolio manager;s out there. she;s well known, you should look her up

    • @Countstep0099
      @Countstep0099 Год назад +2

      @@devereauxjnr Thank you, i just found her

  • @Sonofawildanimal4241
    @Sonofawildanimal4241 Год назад +7

    Home prices increased by 40% in less than 48 months. Why are we acting like that is normal?

  • @LynGrengs
    @LynGrengs Год назад +23

    Engaging in an individual option is fair but its performance level can’t generate high dividends. Diversification is the secret to optimal performance, that’s why I have my interest set on options based on projected growth and performance.

    • @EmiliaEnglerth
      @EmiliaEnglerth Год назад

      Do not lay your eggs in one basket.” I engage on various options with the aid of my pro, *JENNY PAMOGAS CANAYA* and so far have acquired so-much

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      @TonyaDepaola Год назад

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  • @KevinHarper3DArtist
    @KevinHarper3DArtist Год назад +9

    this is spun like the housing crisis of 2008. But the impact is very different. If you were a homeowner, 2008 meant you lost a ton of value and investors started snatching up property all over the place for really low prices.

  • @laughingvampire7555
    @laughingvampire7555 Год назад +18

    what I don't understand, is if people already know they live in flooding zones, they don't build their house elevated to minimize damage.

    • @user-hf2dr7sh4y
      @user-hf2dr7sh4y Год назад +1

      why would they if many are probably already stretching themselves to evem buy the property and assuming everything will be alright. they would just have to amass more costs/debt they can hardly afford over the long term.

    • @wc4109
      @wc4109 Год назад +3

      Cause most are investors or flippers....

    • @angeliqueramsey6457
      @angeliqueramsey6457 Год назад

      maybe if u buy a shack in a floodplain, just wait for the disaster relief money and then build ur castle on stilts

    • @mumuzeze
      @mumuzeze Год назад

      What you don’t understand is that most of the world is poor. They inherit the homes and have little excess income to make any renovations. Those who break the poverty cycle move altogether.

    • @runningfromabear8354
      @runningfromabear8354 Год назад +1

      You're assuming floodwaters will always recede. At a certain point, the coastline moves and even a house on stilts needs road access and utilities.

  • @darnellcapriccioso
    @darnellcapriccioso Год назад +9

    Mortgage rates are currently at an all time high since 2000(23 years) and based on statistics on inflation, we might see that number skyrocket further, a 30-year fixed rate was only 5% this time last year, so do I just keep waiting for a housing crash before buying or redirect my focus to the equity market

    • @richardhudson1243
      @richardhudson1243 Год назад +8

      The stock market is no different, to maintain profit, you need to have some in-depth knowledge on the market

    • @tatianastarcic
      @tatianastarcic Год назад +8

      Indeed, my approach mainly involves buying and holding stocks, but my portfolio has been in a state of losses for an extended period. Regrettably, achieving substantial gains necessitates maintaining consistency and periodically restructuring your portfolio.

    • @maiadazz
      @maiadazz Год назад +7

      in my opinion, it was much easier investing back in the 60s but it’s a lot trickier now, those making consistent profit in these times are professionals reason I’ve been using an advisor for the past 5 years to consistently build my portfolio in preparations for retirement.

    • @lowcostfresh2266
      @lowcostfresh2266 Год назад +5

      @@maiadazz Impressive can you share more info?

    • @maiadazz
      @maiadazz Год назад +2

      Actually, I've shuffled through a few advisors in the past, and “ Laurel Dell Sroufe ” remains the most resourceful thus far. Her strategy proves profitable, and sustainable both in a bull & bear market. Most likely, her deets can be found on the net, so you can confirm yourself.

  • @arthurwatts1680
    @arthurwatts1680 Год назад +13

    After La Nina dumped record rain along Australia's east coast a few short years back, we turned on our televisions to reports of another major flood in Australia's third largest city, Brisbane. Not as devastating as 2011 but the 'once in a century' line spun by government was clearly proven wrong. While insurers jacked up premiums for flood insurance, demand for riverfront real estate remains very strong in the River City : we are an odd species.

    • @arkzyFn8
      @arkzyFn8 Год назад +1

      Same in FL. Investors flock to hurricane destroyed areas

  • @rustinpierce7269
    @rustinpierce7269 Год назад +36

    I feel this would make homes even more expensive because people will move inward away from flood zones and cause a housing shortage.

    • @ashlynnhendricks6244
      @ashlynnhendricks6244 Год назад +5

      Already happening in miami

    • @cnwil4594
      @cnwil4594 Год назад +1

      It depends on the availability of land not too close to flood vulnerable areas. In other words, there is always a risk of flooding no matter where one builds a home.

    • @midiminion6580
      @midiminion6580 Год назад +2

      I think this is already happening in Canada as a lot of immigration is driving home prices up. I think a lot of this immigration is at least influenced by global climate changes.

    • @ThisIsGABMuzik
      @ThisIsGABMuzik Год назад

      We already have a huge national housing shortage. Ohio alone is short 250,000 homes. Combine that with the other states.

    • @jjg1501
      @jjg1501 Год назад

      @@cnwil4594 what you are saying is bananas. there are 10s of thousands of homes where it is impossible for them to flood, unless you had a global flood that is. which as far as we know has never happened

  • @wc8246
    @wc8246 Год назад +8

    Imagine if everyone who allowed it to happen last time was locked up, it would never happen again.

    • @jjg1501
      @jjg1501 Год назад

      sure it would. its like saying if you lock up drug dealers there would be no drugs. there is always someone right behind them to take their place and capitalize on the void

  • @slconley
    @slconley Год назад +14

    Of course investors aren’t terribly worried, they sell the properties, they aren’t living in them.

    • @anthonymartinez4307
      @anthonymartinez4307 Год назад

      They legally screw people any state that lets anyone sell property without warning the buyer is just corrupt.

    • @sp123
      @sp123 Год назад

      but their "money" debt is tied up in these houses and they have to pay the mortgages.

  • @steven4315
    @steven4315 Год назад +6

    When shopping for a home, take the time to look at a topographical map. It's quick and free and a few feet can make a big difference.

    • @ninja.saywhat
      @ninja.saywhat Год назад +1

      yeah i always have that in mind, i just don't have the money yet 😭😅

  • @TomNook.
    @TomNook. Год назад +23

    You should absolutely trust investors who short the market.

    • @JanifarLocak
      @JanifarLocak Год назад

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      I basically didn’t know much about Crypt0 before I met Mr Gary Gensler , now I can navigate the market myself.

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      @VeronicaAbel-lk1pv Год назад

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    • @Beaver.17
      @Beaver.17 Год назад +2

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    • @gregleavitt1255
      @gregleavitt1255 Год назад +1

      @@JanifarLocak Get a real job and contribute something to the world.

  • @capitalist.ltd.economics
    @capitalist.ltd.economics Год назад +2

    The home has since ancient times been a base, and work to secure a foundation has been as extension of the household. The current system reverses this relationship, such that the house as the object to be attained through work. We can renew capitalism by reappraising housing as a separate form of currency, setting housing outside of the market as it should be.

  • @thepangwin902
    @thepangwin902 Год назад +5

    Wouldn't less housing from flooding make prices go up? And possibly the stocks and markets that make money from housing sales? I could see less money overall being in the markets but people will have to live somewhere. Seems like just more housing would be bought in areas that are undeveloped in the US.

    • @runningfromabear8354
      @runningfromabear8354 Год назад

      And what happens to all of the people who own property that has flooded or is at risk of flooding? Who will buy from them? With what money will they buy homes in dryer places? Plus regions running out of water in the southwest, who will buy homes without running water? And the areas at high risk of forest fires, who will buy their destroyed property likely to have repeat performances? I live in a pretty sweet spot, not a concern for me but I worry about the people who lose everything trying to find homes after losing theirs and unable to rebuild.

  • @AndrianVictor-ph6yt
    @AndrianVictor-ph6yt Год назад +4

    If you want to be successful financially, if you don't want to be poor, stop saving and develop the high income skill, Develop the side hustle on the side, your job is no longer enough, your business is no longer Enough, you need something.

  • @Kimsooyhun12
    @Kimsooyhun12 Год назад +22

    Most people don't even realize that the economy is collapsing and there is an increasing rate of unemployment worldwide so take advantage and prepare while things are still on the shelf in the store

  • @johncitizen5377
    @johncitizen5377 Год назад

    The longer we wait, the more expensive they get. This is insane. There are no right answers. Western Sydney got smashed by massive floods and prices still went up. It's insane to live in a rural area, earn 6 figures and still be poor. Our country (Australia) is in serious trouble.

  • @dslick6234
    @dslick6234 Год назад +28

    I was a mortgage broker in the early 2000s and i seen it coming. I see it coming now. You don't have to be an expert to see it coming.😅😂

  • @BarTGila
    @BarTGila Год назад +2

    I have no sympathy for these Corporations that bought up huge numbers of houses hoping to turn a huge profit on them. The ridiculous thing is the home I bought (after down sizing from another home) 7 years ago has tripled in value. Of course if I sold I would have to buy in this same out of control market or move hundreds of miles from the city.

  • @sbkpilot1
    @sbkpilot1 Год назад +12

    so $800B over $40T is a 2% correction, why is this a big deal?

    • @chaoticrealm777
      @chaoticrealm777 Год назад +4

      Might cause ripple effects felt in the global economy, e.g. the Jenga metaphor in the beginning

  • @Dee-w5y
    @Dee-w5y Год назад +6

    Residential real estate values are declining. This trend will continue for over a decade. Demand is dead. Stagflation is present. -30% in home values by this time next year. On top of the -8% already seen nationally.

  • @AndrewTarasevich
    @AndrewTarasevich Год назад +10

    Added to my list "watch in 2033"

  • @72tubedmiaz
    @72tubedmiaz Год назад +1

    If the losses continue they will not insure folks any longer, as is happening in the states

  • @alexgamble4718
    @alexgamble4718 Год назад +4

    the energy transition will cost many trillions worldwide and will need to be passed onto consumers directly or via higher taxation. I think the most costly flood disaster ever in the USA causing $100b in damage puts things in perspective and indicates why people are focusing on the transition costs hear and now, rather than insurance premiums being way higher in a decade or two. People respond to the prospects of electricity prices approaching levels like in Denmark (the highest wind output and most expensive electricity market in the World) rather than floods which people can dismiss until it happens.

    • @martinlund7987
      @martinlund7987 Год назад

      Just FYI, Denmark does not have the largest kWh prices, within the EU Italy has a larger kWh (per EU Q4 2022 report).
      The world would benefit greatly from the US ceasing to subsidize lavish energy consumption. Frankly, it is ridiculous that a US versus an EU citizen consumes 2 or 3 fold more energy, both from an environmental and economic perspective.
      There will be costs, but conversely, there will also be savings as we stop or reduce subsidizing fossil fuels. An obvious factor is better health status.
      Just the removal of most particle pollution from cities would increase baseline developmental outcomes. Which in turn will boost productivity per capita and hence the economy.
      Could the US manage to mess up such gains, e.g. by reducing the health of its population faster than gains made by reducing particle pollution etc.?
      Yes, it could and it is (e.g. the US now has decreasing life expectancy).
      But that is not an inherent limitation of the green transistion, but is a US societal design "flaw".

    • @alexgamble4718
      @alexgamble4718 Год назад +1

      @@martinlund7987 i'm an optimist and I get that we cant produce energy the same way for the next 100 yrs. But, it is still a massive cost and the transition will be bumpy. Every few years I can imagine back lashes happening on the cost and kind of taking one step back so to speak to alleviate that.
      Gas obviously will be really imprtant for base load and then peaking power for a long time yet, thats at least half as bad as coal.
      Re Denmark, I read something last year that its like 80% wind and the rest hydro impprted from Norway and eas the most expensive in Europe. I guess thats changed. Still, its two or three times expensive as many places like the US. Thats a tough sell. People focus on here and now once things are not as comfortable.

    • @donedeal8385
      @donedeal8385 Год назад

      The cost does not need to be passed on to the consumer. The oligarchy has to come down.

  • @lat123x
    @lat123x Год назад +2

    Empires fall when their economy crumbles under runaway military spending, coupled with economic inequality leading to social unrest.
    Maintaining the military end of an empire is expensive. You need a well-maintained economy that is stable in the long run. This is what we amateur, armchair historians often underestimate. A budget deficit can only be maintained for so long until it becomes crippling.
    Usually, the end comes in form of a war. Not necessarily in the form of a defeat: both the UK and France were on the winning side of both World Wars, but they lost their empires regardless. The strain on economy and resources, coupled with the colonies no longer wanting to be colonies, proved to be too much. The USSR was simply arms raced to death, although the final straw was probably Afghanistan.
    The US has, since about the end of the Cold War, been perilously close to the point of no return, in the opinion of people who know about this sort of things. Inequality has caused widespread poverty, even as the richest have become even richer. The US has spent a completely disproportionate amount of the national budget on defense. The budget deficit is basically out of control, even though Democrat Presidents have tried their best.
    And last year, the richest got their taxes lowered, the middle class got their taxes raised, and the military got more funding which wasn’t covered by increased tax income.
    The US should choose its next war wisely. It is likely to be their last.

    • @gregleavitt1255
      @gregleavitt1255 Год назад +2

      Funny, too, that the next war is likely to be fought behind screens and not with tanks and planes and guns and ground troops at all.

  • @missrose0077
    @missrose0077 Год назад +4

    Don't "big short" investors hope for disaster? 🤔🤔🤔

  • @darrikgoettsche1
    @darrikgoettsche1 Год назад +2

    Or use flood prone areas as green belts natural reserves and parks. The states of Washington Idaho and Oregon do this and rarely does it flood bad enough to reach private property

    • @GeeEm1313
      @GeeEm1313 Год назад

      Johnson Creek in Portland says hi.

  • @christianlarson7259
    @christianlarson7259 Год назад +1

    US Gov't needs to stop worrying about their jobs and start worrying about the general welfare of its citizens.
    Take the pressure out of the cooker and say that we are in a recession. Reduce the housing market costs and lower the stock market.

  • @Andrew-hu1bx
    @Andrew-hu1bx Год назад +3

    Why are we talking about flooding when we have an actual financial crisis that was created through covid with poor policy making from global governments 😂

  • @person35790
    @person35790 Год назад +1

    Hmm, as people ditch their exposed properties in the US, would that not just exacerbate the housing shortage in other places?

  • @jaygold4467
    @jaygold4467 Год назад

    We absolutely not "all linked by the global economy". This is ridiculous. America is it's own economy.

  • @muhammad-bin-american
    @muhammad-bin-american Год назад +9

    Just close your ears and pretend all is well. You will be fine.

  • @alexsteven.m6414
    @alexsteven.m6414 Год назад +2

    In my opinion, a housing market crash is imminent due to the high number of individuals who purchased homes above the asking price despite the low interest rates. These buyers find themselves in precarious situations as housing prices decline, leaving them without any equity. If they become unable to afford their homes, foreclosure becomes a likely outcome. Even attempting to sell would not yield any profits. This scenario is expected to impact a significant number of people, particularly in light of the anticipated surge in layoffs and the rapid increase in the cost of living.

  • @mark-remanHamilton
    @mark-remanHamilton Год назад +6

    Cities with intact infrastructure and lots of high and dry land will experience exponential price increases. Those cities will need walls around them. So, value goes up but costs also go up exponentially.

  • @YFolermira
    @YFolermira Год назад

    I anticipate a housing market downturn due to the numerous individuals who purchased homes above the asking price, even with favorable interest rates. Despite the low rates, many are now at risk because they lack equity. If housing prices continue to decline, they may face difficulties selling or even risk foreclosure if they can no longer afford the property. This scenario is likely to impact a substantial number of people, particularly with the anticipated surge in layoffs and the rapid increase in the cost of living.

    • @VickyAlvy
      @VickyAlvy Год назад

      Consider moving from real estate to stocks during recessions for potential short-term trading opportunities. While not financial advice, investing may be wiser than holding cash in this period.

  • @anthonymartinez4307
    @anthonymartinez4307 Год назад +1

    Florida is a flood risk they knew but hey let’s make this money and let the buyer loose.

  • @avikmahata8512
    @avikmahata8512 Год назад +5

    forget about flooding and other natural calamity. House prices has detached from reality. In New England in most places house prices rents has been gone up 100,000$ or more. Thats like paying back 250,000-300,000$ in mortgages over 30 years. Personal incomes has gone up barely has not keep up with inflation. All the money printed get stuck at top 1% of the population as always. People has stretched their budget so much that its very likely there will be a crisis in home value. Every 5% down in price of the house translates to 25% down on the mortgage/equity. Its going to be rough.

  • @yonmoore
    @yonmoore Год назад

    Oh, so LITERAL flooding, I thought maybe they were talking about the flooding of supply because where I live, everywhere I look, there's a new apartment/condo building going up.

  • @jessicamoore3093
    @jessicamoore3093 Год назад +1

    The US economy is grappling with uncertainties, global fluctuations, and pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.

  • @Greggsberdard
    @Greggsberdard Год назад +10

    I predict a housing crash in the near future due to the increasing number of people buying homes for more than the asking price without enough equity. If housing prices keep dropping, these individuals could face foreclosure if they can't afford their homes. Additionally, selling their properties might not generate any profits. This situation is worsened by expected job cuts and rising living expenses, which could impact many people.

    • @andrewberg6278
      @andrewberg6278 Год назад

      In what price range will people not be able to afford their houses? People are still buying house for cash in the 250-400k price range where i live in western New York. I think the point of the video has to do with rising insurance premiums that will make payments unnafordable. It’s gonna be dependent on certain markets in the US but people have plenty of equity to weather job loss. The houses that are available are from either elderly family members passing away or people moving to another state for jobs

    • @sonnyobrien
      @sonnyobrien Год назад +1

      @@andrewberg6278bro no one is buying houses with cash 😂
      The debt repayment index in the USA is shockingly poor.

    • @franwex
      @franwex Год назад +2

      @@sonnyobrienhere in California a lot of people are buying in cash. I work for a bank, and a lot of people have hundreds of thousands of dollars parked waiting for a housing “crash” to buy in. Some are simply giving in and buying in now as house prices started to rise again.

    • @fahlou2019
      @fahlou2019 Год назад +1

      @@sonnyobrien lots of people are buying houses cash in California.

    • @sonnyobrien
      @sonnyobrien Год назад

      greatwork, thanks for the statistics A++++++@@fahlou2019

  • @SeegerInstitute
    @SeegerInstitute Год назад +2

    The numbers that the sky sites seem ridiculously low. I’m just concerned they’re trying to psychologically reduce the severity of the problem by knowingly inserting numbers which are preposterously low.

  • @XOPOIIIO
    @XOPOIIIO Год назад +5

    These properties will be flooding very gradually, over decades, plenty of time to relocate. Obviously less and less people would be constructing in affected areas. Real estate prices would obviously fall, but also gradually, maybe slightly faster than it's depreciation.

  • @jameslee-dp6cb
    @jameslee-dp6cb Год назад

    I dont agree. When the government allowed zero interest rates, housing jumped to all time highs forcing the FED to have to step in. They want you to believe that the FED is to blame for the housing crisis, but the housing crisis already existed before the FED stepped in. Flooding along the coast has really driven prices up for all of us. Insurance companies are pulling out of these flood prone areas. It has been coming for some time now. Sooner or later, insurance wont be available for any homes near any coast because of wea level rise.

  • @JoeyBlogs007
    @JoeyBlogs007 Год назад +4

    Difficult to see a financial disaster unless you purchase in flood areas.

  • @cstuartdc
    @cstuartdc Год назад +7

    No one is talking about what is happening when student loans return, no matter what your opinion is politically on them (I'm supportive of soem reform although skeptical of forgiveness).
    A. 13% of working class has student debt
    B. 8% of that debt is private loans, which are subject to todays interest rates
    C. Average payment seems fuzzy - but about 400/month seems to be where it lands, maybe the median is lower.
    I"m not sure if underwriters have even factored this in. It's an effective tax on the working class weeks away and the (R)'s seem hellbent on applying that tax. I don't see this DOESN"T correct the market. That said, I don't think this is a "bubble". . .mortgage commodities and bad AAA ratings of this deosnt' seem to be in teh market writ large.

    • @joesmith3590
      @joesmith3590 Год назад

      Umm no. All the free money they gave away that created inflation is a tax on the working class. Having to pay your own loan is just normal.

  • @Bluediver328
    @Bluediver328 Год назад +4

    It is way overdue housing crisis it need readjustments on prices abot 40 to 45 present

  • @georgehakimian5949
    @georgehakimian5949 Год назад

    When I was a kid in the 1970's I was told that Cape Cod would not be existence when I was a grown adult, which made me really sad & ruined my childhood vacation. I wonder if that person is still alive to tell me whether Cape Cod is still there.

  • @zibtihaj3213
    @zibtihaj3213 Год назад +3

    Big short one of the best movies ever

  • @DavidPat
    @DavidPat Год назад +10

    Population is shrinking and housing prices still near all time highs. You need more people to buy houses 😅

    • @lindsayann7756
      @lindsayann7756 Год назад

      Exactly! There’s nearly 50% gen alpha than there were boomers, gen x, millennials or gen z. As the age wheel moves up there’s less people behind us in this giant Ponzi scheme called capitalism. It always requires people coming in behind to hold up the demand… the only way it can be fixed is with a massive influx of migrants.

    • @very_tall_dude
      @very_tall_dude Год назад +2

      Why aren’t there more news reports of the disastrous effect of private equity firms buying houses creating this artificial bubble? Seems few are talking about it, but it’s a real problem

    • @joanchisholm563
      @joanchisholm563 Год назад

      US population will decrease this year and next year. Wait and see.

    • @lindsayann7756
      @lindsayann7756 Год назад

      @@marakima world population yes. US.. no.

    • @MichaelSmith-ij2ut
      @MichaelSmith-ij2ut Год назад +2

      @@lindsayann7756 U.S. yes, it's gone up every single year it's existed

  • @JeremiahFlint
    @JeremiahFlint Год назад +10

    High prices for everything have severely affected my plan. I'm concerned if people who went through the 2008 financial crisis had an easier time than I am having now. The stock market is worrying me as my income has decreased, and I fear I won't have enough savings for retirement since I can't contribute as much as before.

    • @PaulCheng-co1ir
      @PaulCheng-co1ir Год назад +2

      It's recommended to save at least 20% of your income in a 401k. You can use online calculators to estimate how much you should save based on your age and income. Saving at least 20% of your income in a 401(k) can help ensure that you have enough money to retire comfortably. By saving this much, you can take advantage of investing in the stock market and potentially grow your retirement savings over time.

    • @StacyHershberger
      @StacyHershberger Год назад +2

      Considering the increased complexity since the 2008 crash and COVID, I suggest diversifying your financial portfolio. I hired an advisor and successfully grew my portfolio by over $150K during this turbulent market using defensive strategies that protect and profit from market fluctuations.

    • @cnwil4594
      @cnwil4594 Год назад +2

      The stock market is terrible for building wealth for "most" people. One must have a diversity of sources to hedge or leverage against loss, which "most" people don't have.

  • @martynhaggerty2294
    @martynhaggerty2294 Год назад

    Here in oz they keep building in flood prone areas and then wonder why they can't get insurance... the same for bushfires. 10:20

  • @membear
    @membear Год назад +1

    They are building like crazy in Lee County Florida which is Fort Myers/Cape Coral. Cape Coral had the most canals of any area in the world.

  • @straightdrive6192
    @straightdrive6192 Год назад +1

    Keep paying your debt checks , there is no crisis , prices are very stable

  • @morganmessina
    @morganmessina Год назад

    does anyone have a recommendation for an ETF that is bearish on this market? Would DRV be the best bet?

  • @FrankQ777
    @FrankQ777 Год назад

    The key is the depth of over finances of over inflated property values...

  • @brettself
    @brettself Год назад +1

    After Hurricane Ian, property insurance went through the roof before most insurers packed up and left all together.

  • @Stinkysniff1
    @Stinkysniff1 Год назад +1

    This time is different Imo

  • @jasonwood5248
    @jasonwood5248 Год назад

    Lost of houses due to flood would cause the house that aren’t impacted to go up. Simple supply and demand.

  • @kirstinstrand6292
    @kirstinstrand6292 Год назад

    I believe that this video will be proven correct, on many levels. How soon? Best guess is within 10 years. The fact that FLOOD ZONE properties are County and State permitted to be rebuilt is pure STUPIDITY.

  • @darkjedi7
    @darkjedi7 Год назад +1

    To my 🇺🇸 🇬🇧 friends...
    Does your state/national government give some kind of aid (ie. Financial / Healthcare / education) to the citizens with low economy?
    Thanks before!

  • @chriswhorror6658
    @chriswhorror6658 Год назад

    I live in Florida and the house market is crazy down here, everyone is moving down here. Waiting for this house market crash so I can jump to be a homeowner. Just waiting lol

  • @idiocracyishere4531
    @idiocracyishere4531 Год назад +4

    The flooding is due to subsidence and blocking of flood plains. It’s not sea level rise.

  • @caroleekeith2823
    @caroleekeith2823 Год назад +1

    Can wall street be shorted.
    Fascism is unregulated captiol or greed run amuck. It always self-destructs.

  • @nata3467
    @nata3467 Год назад

    The price is where I live are so inflated you'll see homes that in 2020 to wear at a hundred grand now they're trying to sell a half a mil.. it's ridiculous and I can't believe Banks be any part of lending... Shades of 2008

  • @jeglea3534
    @jeglea3534 Год назад +5

    I could care less, let it all flood. Cities and governments allowed the building in areas that were flood prone because they are addicted to the money from development. Reap the whirlwind peeps.

  • @j121212100
    @j121212100 Год назад

    It will for Florida that is for sure!

  • @user-tx2dc3vm7m
    @user-tx2dc3vm7m Год назад

    I've been thinking of buying a house in Las Vegas just to have it and rent it out since where I live houses are unaffordable. This video is exactly about what I've been thinking. I'm definitely waiting and watching to see how things flood and I'm going to investigate to see how long the municipalities have to designate new flood zones. One of the first things I'd do is have flood drains installed although by the looks of it, the flooding is so severe that land formations have to be considered when thinking of buying property in that area.

  • @emikomina
    @emikomina Год назад +10

    heartwarming news, I hope there are more such news from america 😊

  • @mr.g1683
    @mr.g1683 Год назад +1

    OKAY What stocks or futures are related directly to flooding that I can buy PUT OPTIONS :-)

  • @brandonsheffield9873
    @brandonsheffield9873 Год назад

    I cant wait for the bubble to burst. Im a buyer with nothing to buy, because everything is too expensive (meaning not worth buying) we need a 20% cut in property/house prices (notice i didn't use 20% value), current prices dont reflect true value.

  • @truckingwithtobee
    @truckingwithtobee Год назад

    This will literally only be in a couple states is not gonna be nationwide.

  • @DualEnduro
    @DualEnduro Год назад

    There is nothing in this that says “how” flooding is estimated but climate is the reason?

  • @evelynullman8360
    @evelynullman8360 Год назад

    What’s his point? With more homes flooding and fewer homes available, the non-flooding real estate becomes more valuable!

  • @timpenfield5
    @timpenfield5 Год назад

    No crash, Buffet, wall street etc etc.. know the best zip codes, they will swoop in and buy when folks get evicted.

  • @webnut1
    @webnut1 Год назад +12

    Except it's nothing to do with 'climate change' but the greed of house builders, councils and the laziness of councils to manage our rivers/reams efficiently by dredging them to stop flooding.

    • @001sander2
      @001sander2 Год назад

      So those rivers caused Hurricane Ian 🤡

    • @webnut1
      @webnut1 Год назад

      @@001sander2 According to the hurricane experts at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there has been no increase in the frequency or intensity of Atlantic hurricanes since the late 1800s. 🤡

  • @RAZTubin
    @RAZTubin Год назад +1

    You forgot to mention that climate change also causes earthquakes.

  • @Holy_Frijole
    @Holy_Frijole Год назад

    [6:11] the cost of doing nothing is massive

  • @esgee3829
    @esgee3829 Год назад +1

    it is curious that Burt is so interested in which glasses look better...

  • @MultiCose
    @MultiCose Год назад +1

    Logical fallacy just because someone one the Lottery does not mean they will win again. It would be nice to say like hay do this or any other important info.

  • @moonObintzayed
    @moonObintzayed Год назад

    I like report’s technique

  • @hail_seitan_
    @hail_seitan_ Год назад +1

    So the solution is check flood maps and fortify your property? Lolol. Who can afford to do that. This is all gonna turn out great

    • @Bonafide188
      @Bonafide188 Год назад

      People who didn't over extend themselves to get a house. My mortgage is only 9% of my monthly income, making it very easy to fortify.
      If you have $100k to spend on a kitchen remodel you can definitely afford to fortify your property

    • @hail_seitan_
      @hail_seitan_ Год назад

      @Bonafide188 lol how many people have 100k for a kitchen remodel, let alone fortifying their house? Goof for you or whatever but that is not the kind of budget most people are working with, if they can afford to buy at all

  • @jamesswanson7213
    @jamesswanson7213 Год назад +1

    Would have been nice if they talked to the expert in the title more

  • @cryptoblahblah2074
    @cryptoblahblah2074 Год назад

    Unless builders build regular houses, prices will go UP.
    A reduction in inventory will ONLY increase prices.
    A reduction in vacation houses will not do anything lolol….
    Help the builders build.. please.. duh..

  • @ProgressisEverything
    @ProgressisEverything Год назад

    This belies the more obvious affordability and default risk, particularly evident in the UK and probably evident elsewhere
    UK housebuilders likely to suffer as I predicted 4 months ago publicly on my channel and 6 months ago privately.

  • @efanshel
    @efanshel Год назад

    I've felt Florida is a short for 25 years... I know I am early

  • @kirstinstrand6292
    @kirstinstrand6292 Год назад

    I had a fortuitous dream several years ago that a waterfront home I once owned had water flooding the main level floor - it wasn't from Puget Sound -- it was rain water. We'll see 🤓

  • @xxmadmanxx9882
    @xxmadmanxx9882 Год назад

    Im a builder so ill do my own work if my house floods. I suggest everyone learn basic skills in carpentry to save you money.

  • @fallenkeith5885
    @fallenkeith5885 Год назад

    Yes come to me my precious 4 bedroom 2 bathroom house, I shall buy you once the economy crashes into ruins and no one wants to buy a house.
    Realistically though? Nah, there's plenty of people waiting on the sidelines if rates drop and the housing markets collapses. Not just me to get out of the rent cycle, but lots of corporations and many people looking for a SFH

  • @chasen3661
    @chasen3661 Год назад

    Ain’t no way this guy just used the same Jenga reference from the big short movie

  • @user-qr7ee2cp4y
    @user-qr7ee2cp4y Год назад

    You worry about you and don't do anything stupid and you'll be just fine.

  • @keithjackson2035
    @keithjackson2035 Год назад

    Why sound the alarm? No one ever listens.