The FED is imaginary, it was congress' spending that did this. The math regarding asset values vs the median income is the ONLY thing that will ever matter, and that dictates the largest crash in values of everything, in all of US history.
Although everyone quality of life is going down down and down with inflation. People are happy as long as their stock portfolio $ numbers keep going up. Majority of people likes living in a world of lies. They are addicted to stimulus checks and stocks going up. Because they think they’re so smart and their investments are paying off handsomely
The 1970's lol. You could buy a new home in the 1970s for 2.5x the median income, so of course people still had money to spend the first time they cut rates. We're 100% going into depression this time because homes at the peak of the 2007 bubble were 4.9x the median income. They're 6.8x today. Most overleveraged, poor, indebted and weakest consumer ever going into rocketing unemployment and a foreclosure and repossession crisis that makes 2008-2010 look mild, because ALL the math of the 2008 financial crisis is mild by comparison.
@@zeldaluver64 yes, pain is part of the process - everyone is so pain adverse and weak they fail to do what is right and that will eventually lead to much more severe pain.
The only inflation that will matter is the inflation they don't report. Food and energy increases. Stagflation will occur due to the rise in the prices of food and energy, leaving the consumer unable to support the remaining economy.
Back in the day you didn't go into massive dept to put a roof over your head. People are stupid these days. Blindly being led to the slaughter houses. The American dream!!
Cime on Georgia, Options experation is being used as a short squeeze exit rally for institutions and funds. The market crash setup is in October. The market was pumped using after-hours institution money. Gold is going hire. Because it was not manipulated during this pump and dump. One cannot judge a short time frame market move.
Economy isn’t really booming. It’s all based on market speculation. And employment is NOT strong. The liars in government just don’t count all the folks out of work.
You ensured me to look at old FREd unemployment data. Yeah every time you see unemployment makes this small U shape then it goes straight up. I’m staying heavy on cash. I’ll wait till there is “blood in the streets” to start buying again. Buffet is in cash so I have good company.
I've been trying to save and budget after getting laid off. But looking at this, I'm concerned that I won't be able to catch up and prepare for inflation. I haven't slept well in a while.
Welcome to club buddy. Got laid off back in February and since then counting my dimes and nickels hoping to make money out of Jeff Snider's TLT, but rate cut didn't happen as fast as he was preaching and I'm back to square one again.
I saw a comment on an article yesterday saying, "The economy is so good that the Fed lowered interest rates 50 base points!" Answers your question about whether or not dumb money or smart money is pushing up markets.
Can you look into the JD Vance interview with Tucker Carlson last night and I find it interesting what JD Vance said about taking out Trump's presidency or the ones that control the war games and globalism talking about that they are preparing for a bond market Spike to take out his presidency
Honestly I think hyperinflation is more probable than anything else. Prices of everything will skyrocket and then voters will want more stimulus checks and the cycle continues. It’s comical every time the news keeps saying inflation is coming down which is it true.
Pretty much, too much maturing debt coming up, can't default & and can't handle the interest rates. So, JPs hand was forced, the cut had nothing to do with inflation or employment. It has everything to do with the looming trillions that are due and need to be rolled and refinanced.
Here is the problem MACROTRENDS is not using a normal GOLD chart - >>> it is "Interactive chart of historical data for real (inflation-adjusted) gold prices per ounce back to 1915. " Thus it distorts perceptions. GOLD was $1000 in 2008 as I said and traded it.
George, could you speak to Luke Growmens thesis though. I’d say he’s with everything you’re saying but his perspective is the government is so reliant on the tax receipts from an inflated stock market that at the first sign of trouble, they are going to print. There is no room left for even corrections anymore given the interest payments on the national debt.
I’m pretty sure rates going higher are in reaction to upcoming government debt coming due for roll over and no Fed there to buy w printed money. Fiscal dominance is the new game in town and at market prices = Argentina
Some experts think rate cuts would boost certain industries, while others warn it might increase inflation concerns. I'm reviewing my $600K portfolio allocations and I'm curious about strategies to respond to these potential sector impacts.
Increase exposure to interest rate-sensitive sectors like REITs and utilities, and maintain or slightly increase holdings in growth sectors like technology and consumer discretionary. For tailored advice, consider consulting a financial advisor.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial, and some individuals use hedging strategies or allocate part of their portfolio to defensive assets for market downturns. Expert guidance is vital for achieving this. This approach has helped me stay financially secure for over five years, yielding nearly $1 million in returns on investments.
Yes! They were never serious about defeating inflation. Just look at their balance sheet, it’s still bloated. Expect stagflation, until the debt and asset bubbles finally burst!
If Treasuries were as bullish as stocks, this early in the downward rate cycle, I’d be very, very worried. As it is, it looks like they are in the very early stage of climbing their wall of worry…finger crossed.
George, some investors believe the central banks are monetizing the debt to the tune of debasing the USD by 15% per year. If that is true, assets can be volatile but not crash due to the dollar destruction. Can you do a whiteboard showing how they could be monetizing the debt (interest)? Shouldn't the balance sheet explode higher?
The seventies are totqlly uncomparable with today. Way less personal debt and People could actually save money or use rheir credit card and pay it off at the end of the month. Lower rates only help Banks and the government. People are so deep in debt, that it won't lead to more spending power, so consumer prices rising, i doubt ir.
I'm just going to stick with the original plan buying gold until the point of interest rates and prices going down taking that gold in an exchanging it for dollars to buy land or property in keeping that stockpile of gold at a certain level because when they revalue gold I'll just pay off everything
As mises points out....hyperinflation is a human reaction. Charts (if available) from countries like Venezuela and Lebanon...perhaps even Turkey, would give a truer insight ?
I think it's wrong to compare today to the 1970es . Back then , when a recession came people got hurt , businesses went out of businesses and the losers had to lose . Today you are constantly getting stimulus checks bailouts etc that in effect prevent recessions . But when a real recession hits like 1974 , you won't have to guess. You will just look out the window, see your neighbors stuff being put on the street and you will understand. Also in the early 1980es , people who lost their job was forced to dump stocks creating fantastic buying opportunities. Both the seller and the buyer knew the stock was worth much more than the agreed price . These stimulus checks, bailouts at least now prevents great buying opportunities!
Also, I think we may be lucky that nowadays excess of money does not go into the real economy but instead inflate all kind of assets. Else it would be hell on earth ;)
It's not that bizarre for long dated yields to go up. Rates have been falling for the last couple of months, so the cuts were already priced in. Buy the rumor sell the news. But im not selling yet. Its gonna turn around again. My bonds go up for a while, and then my precious metals go up while bonds take a breather. Lol
I expected 25 BP and no telegraph on future. This would have satisfied mkt. This 50 bp triggering inflation coming back. Most likely early 2025. Buy Assets as T-bils mature . Dollar breaking below 100 will confirm.
Market keeps Climbing and Climbing - Rates will keep going Down - I will soon be priced out of the market with many others in this opposite to a crash - hyperinflation
Why on earth would the Fed cut into a solid growing economy? If everything is “swell,” then leave the rates alone so Treasuries are more attractive. None of this makes any sense.
They cut more than expected to show us they will do whatever they can to prevent a hard landing. The market is just trying to profit from this narrative, that's why it's going up, before the real crisis hits
Don't know what happened to my comment - MACROTRENDS chart is wrong on GOLD - Gold traded between $1000 down to 700 in 2008 then back up to $1000 plus in 2010 - It never reached $1400 until Nov 2010 - Macrotrends is wrong... see a proper gold chart -
the insanity of the FED continues.
They are bailing out the banks. The rates must sink or else commercial real estate loans sink the banks.
The FED is imaginary, it was congress' spending that did this. The math regarding asset values vs the median income is the ONLY thing that will ever matter, and that dictates the largest crash in values of everything, in all of US history.
@@enthused7591exactly. The fed is nowhere near independent and objective as it was intended to be by law
We're fish swimming in an ocean of lies.
In the empire of lies truth is treason.
Although everyone quality of life is going down down and down with inflation. People are happy as long as their stock portfolio $ numbers keep going up. Majority of people likes living in a world of lies. They are addicted to stimulus checks and stocks going up. Because they think they’re so smart and their investments are paying off handsomely
In a toilet bowl
The 1970's lol. You could buy a new home in the 1970s for 2.5x the median income, so of course people still had money to spend the first time they cut rates. We're 100% going into depression this time because homes at the peak of the 2007 bubble were 4.9x the median income. They're 6.8x today. Most overleveraged, poor, indebted and weakest consumer ever going into rocketing unemployment and a foreclosure and repossession crisis that makes 2008-2010 look mild, because ALL the math of the 2008 financial crisis is mild by comparison.
but the boomers are sitting on shit-tons of home equity?
The idiots on congress put WAY too much play money into circulation in 2020/2021. They are too stupid to understand basic economics
We need 30% deflation to bring prices back in line. The fed just made the situation so much worse.
you gotta realize that you can't have deflation without increasing unemployment. prices might come down, but at what cost?
@@zeldaluver64 yes, pain is part of the process - everyone is so pain adverse and weak they fail to do what is right and that will eventually lead to much more severe pain.
@@zeldaluver64 If they cut government employees by 70% I'd say the cost is worth the deflation.
Only way you’ll get that is 5-10 years of 8-10% interest rates AND balanced budget government spending
The only inflation that will matter is the inflation they don't report. Food and energy increases. Stagflation will occur due to the rise in the prices of food and energy, leaving the consumer unable to support the remaining economy.
This is just the normal spike in stocks before more unemployment , business downturns and recession. Look at history
Yep. I'm having a funeral for the middle class this week. J Pow is invited despite being dusted for prints.
Brilliant discussion, thank you
Thanks George
Thank you Sir!!
Inflation: Gold, Wheat, Orange Juice, Pork Bellies
Deflation: your home and job
Back in the day you didn't go into massive dept to put a roof over your head. People are stupid these days. Blindly being led to the slaughter houses. The American dream!!
Add "illegal immigrants" in the inflation category
Oil down, everything down.
They lowered the cost of borrowing money at the behest of a country currently buying its own bonds
I think gold is going up because people are worried the financial system might not be as permanent as we are told.
All I can say is thanks to Peter Schiff. I loaded up at 1800. Also bought homes at 3.00%. 38 and loaded for bear. You gotta catch the wave people.
A 15oz can of Progresso soup is $4.89 in Connecticut.
Crazy.
It should be crazy. Progresso is terrible.
@@slovene1987
Terrible and at a ridiculous price
$3.15 a can at Publix in FL. Have to buy when it's BOGO just to get close to what it was in 2019. Ridiculous.
They want is to eat the bugs
Cime on Georgia, Options experation is being used as a short squeeze exit rally for institutions and funds. The market crash setup is in October. The market was pumped using after-hours institution money. Gold is going hire. Because it was not manipulated during this pump and dump. One cannot judge a short time frame market move.
Cutting the Fed fund rate should spur price increases.
George, we are in a new era where no one wants to buy our debt
They cut because they know a crash is coming
So they prevented the crash with this rate cut?
@@vd.s6158They have begun to cut to try and soften the blow once it comes. We'll see how well that works out.
@@vd.s6158 more rate cuts to follow
Not really. They cut so their bankster buddies could rollover their debt coming due at lower rates.
If the economy is booming and employment is strong, then why did the Fed cut 50 basis points instead of 25 or none? Ask yourself this
Economy isn’t really booming. It’s all based on market speculation. And employment is NOT strong. The liars in government just don’t count all the folks out of work.
Idk. Credit card delinquencies , commercial real estate. Gas prices. .
Love your videos. It reminds me of that saying the markets can remain irrational longer than we can remain solvent
Roaring economy? Right!
You ensured me to look at old FREd unemployment data. Yeah every time you see unemployment makes this small U shape then it goes straight up. I’m staying heavy on cash. I’ll wait till there is “blood in the streets” to start buying again. Buffet is in cash so I have good company.
I've been trying to save and budget after getting laid off. But looking at this, I'm concerned that I won't be able to catch up and prepare for inflation. I haven't slept well in a while.
Take a melatonin
Welcome to club buddy. Got laid off back in February and since then counting my dimes and nickels hoping to make money out of Jeff Snider's TLT, but rate cut didn't happen as fast as he was preaching and I'm back to square one again.
Comparing today…to 1974 is not remotely in the same ballpark.
Powell's worst nightmare is repeating the Arthur Burns fiasco.
I saw a comment on an article yesterday saying, "The economy is so good that the Fed lowered interest rates 50 base points!" Answers your question about whether or not dumb money or smart money is pushing up markets.
Gregory Mannarino called it! Crack Up Boom Imminent!
Can you look into the JD Vance interview with Tucker Carlson last night and I find it interesting what JD Vance said about taking out Trump's presidency or the ones that control the war games and globalism talking about that they are preparing for a bond market Spike to take out his presidency
There's no way 😂 the economy is going to overheat
Honestly I think hyperinflation is more probable than anything else. Prices of everything will skyrocket and then voters will want more stimulus checks and the cycle continues. It’s comical every time the news keeps saying inflation is coming down which is it true.
Of course they did. It’s the endgame.
Pretty much, too much maturing debt coming up, can't default & and can't handle the interest rates. So, JPs hand was forced, the cut had nothing to do with inflation or employment. It has everything to do with the looming trillions that are due and need to be rolled and refinanced.
Here is the problem MACROTRENDS is not using a normal GOLD chart - >>> it is "Interactive chart of historical data for real (inflation-adjusted) gold prices per ounce back to 1915. " Thus it distorts perceptions. GOLD was $1000 in 2008 as I said and traded it.
George, could you speak to Luke Growmens thesis though. I’d say he’s with everything you’re saying but his perspective is the government is so reliant on the tax receipts from an inflated stock market that at the first sign of trouble, they are going to print. There is no room left for even corrections anymore given the interest payments on the national debt.
I’m pretty sure rates going higher are in reaction to upcoming government debt coming due for roll over and no Fed there to buy w printed money. Fiscal dominance is the new game in town and at market prices = Argentina
Correct amundo
Buy, buy, buy stock market to the moon!!!
Stocks never go down😂
Some experts think rate cuts would boost certain industries, while others warn it might increase inflation concerns. I'm reviewing my $600K portfolio allocations and I'm curious about strategies to respond to these potential sector impacts.
Increase exposure to interest rate-sensitive sectors like REITs and utilities, and maintain or slightly increase holdings in growth sectors like technology and consumer discretionary. For tailored advice, consider consulting a financial advisor.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial, and some individuals use hedging strategies or allocate part of their portfolio to defensive assets for market downturns. Expert guidance is vital for achieving this. This approach has helped me stay financially secure for over five years, yielding nearly $1 million in returns on investments.
I could really use the expertise of this advsors
Her name is ‘Marissa Lynn Babula’. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thank you for the lead. I searched her site up and filled the form. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Yes! They were never serious about defeating inflation. Just look at their balance sheet, it’s still bloated. Expect stagflation, until the debt and asset bubbles finally burst!
Great summery, gave me a lot of info i didn't know. It's easy to fall into a comfy opinion. This gave me the mental version of a boot on the cheeks😂
F yeah, give me that energy, that electric juice BAM BAM BAM
There is little benefit to 50 bp cut while QT is still going & recognizing bank loans are the bidggest contributor to money supply.
Everyone said .25, but were thinking .50 and just didn't want to stock their neck out
George, the CAPT just doesn’t care anymore!
CAPT SAYS: STACK ON!
Reddit table, for negative returns, instead of using the minus sign, they put the numbers it in parenthesis 😅
Aaaaand the port closures
Inflation is great if you own assets. It also minimizes debt.
50 basis point cut.....woe to those who are wise in their own eyes and clever in their own sight.
If Treasuries were as bullish as stocks, this early in the downward rate cycle, I’d be very, very worried. As it is, it looks like they are in the very early stage of climbing their wall of worry…finger crossed.
George, some investors believe the central banks are monetizing the debt to the tune of debasing the USD by 15% per year. If that is true, assets can be volatile but not crash due to the dollar destruction. Can you do a whiteboard showing how they could be monetizing the debt (interest)? Shouldn't the balance sheet explode higher?
Economists are good at figuring out why something did what no one expected it to do, after the fact. Predictions? Not so much.
They’re not good at either. Most economists are ivory tower fools who think markets behave rationally 😂
Give it a day or two George and the stock market will settle and drop
Thanks for video ❤
The seventies are totqlly uncomparable with today. Way less personal debt and People could actually save money or use rheir credit card and pay it off at the end of the month.
Lower rates only help Banks and the government. People are so deep in debt, that it won't lead to more spending power, so consumer prices rising, i doubt ir.
Timing is better, easier to listen to
Cheers George
I'm just going to stick with the original plan buying gold until the point of interest rates and prices going down taking that gold in an exchanging it for dollars to buy land or property in keeping that stockpile of gold at a certain level because when they revalue gold I'll just pay off everything
I hope so.
I’m not levered long inflation indexed assets cuz it helps me sleep at night!
As mises points out....hyperinflation is a human reaction. Charts (if available) from countries like Venezuela and Lebanon...perhaps even Turkey, would give a truer insight ?
There is no way out monetising debt all over western globe but to hyperinflate it away. Soft landing🎉
Isn't a temporary market boost expected after a rate reduction?
Inflation, I thought you guys said we are in a recession, oh sorry depression. Lol
I think it's wrong to compare today to the 1970es . Back then , when a recession came people got hurt , businesses went out of businesses and the losers had to lose . Today you are constantly getting stimulus checks bailouts etc that in effect prevent recessions . But when a real recession hits like 1974 , you won't have to guess. You will just look out the window, see your neighbors stuff being put on the street and you will understand.
Also in the early 1980es , people who lost their job was forced to dump stocks creating fantastic buying opportunities. Both the seller and the buyer knew the stock was worth much more than the agreed price . These stimulus checks, bailouts at least now prevents great buying opportunities!
Also, I think we may be lucky that nowadays excess of money does not go into the real economy but instead inflate all kind of assets. Else it would be hell on earth ;)
key word " corporate profit"
pairing word "lay-off"
smart money pumping and then dump it to dumb money
Gundlach was right.. Fed take steps on hikes and elevators on way down..
How or why would they implement Price Controls if your saying inflation is done, and recession is inbound?
They are confused.
Well, the feds sent a clear message to the markets that they will do wherever is necessary to avoid a recession. Thats why its ripping higher today
Don't fight the FED.
Market will collapse when Gummon starts buying S&P 500. It would mean euphoria sentiment.
You mention price controls. So my question is could the pandemic forced shelter in place have acted like a price control in certain ways?
WS exuberance...
Damn George, calm down. You seem so happy!
Its that Good Ol Colombian Devils Dandruff!! On a sick one.
@@ricj619 omfg I never thought of it! You're right HAHAHAHA I will never look at him the same again
Come what come may
They did and I am still going to hedge like a mofo. What goes up will come down, it’s just a matter of when.
Kokomo Indiana had a 35% unemployment rate during the end of the 70's!!
It’s not far off today. The liars in government just don’t count like 20% who quit looking for work
It's not that bizarre for long dated yields to go up. Rates have been falling for the last couple of months, so the cuts were already priced in. Buy the rumor sell the news. But im not selling yet. Its gonna turn around again. My bonds go up for a while, and then my precious metals go up while bonds take a breather. Lol
Wouldn’t have to be that the Fed has to compete with the open market or that the layoffs in mass today benefits corporate America or 🎉😊
Yep
When Gammon talks Market moons!! 😂🎉
Jobs jobs jobs!!!!!!!
I expected 25 BP and no telegraph on future. This would have satisfied mkt. This 50 bp triggering inflation coming back. Most likely early 2025. Buy Assets as T-bils mature . Dollar breaking below 100 will confirm.
Market keeps Climbing and Climbing - Rates will keep going Down - I will soon be priced out of the market with many others in this opposite to a crash - hyperinflation
Wrong
Why on earth would the Fed cut into a solid growing economy? If everything is “swell,” then leave the rates alone so Treasuries are more attractive. None of this makes any sense.
They cut more than expected to show us they will do whatever they can to prevent a hard landing. The market is just trying to profit from this narrative, that's why it's going up, before the real crisis hits
So many economists were predicting a recession last year, then definitely before May this year.
I still think it's coming but tend to be a doomsayer.
Are Fed bank reserves counted as part of the money supply?
If long end of curve going up, isn't that a bear steepener?
Newsflash rate cuts don't control inflation
Gold goes up because of war
All Wars Are Banker Wars
Are they trying to create the cushion for the landing? Maybe they'll increase again after the cuts...
Don't know what happened to my comment - MACROTRENDS chart is wrong on GOLD - Gold traded between $1000 down to 700 in 2008 then back up to $1000 plus in 2010 - It never reached $1400 until Nov 2010 - Macrotrends is wrong... see a proper gold chart -
Which “King” are we bailing out this time?
Maybe Bank of Japan gonna surprise market again tomorrow with another rate hike. 😁
This move will demolished the feds
How?
So where will the money go?
Get those last chips into the game.
Gold is jumping
That was a cute video… now do it and measure the CPI the same way it was measured in the 1970’s
Meltups and milkshakes
Brings all the boys to the yard?
Drowning in an ocean of bullchit
It’s so over
Oh my, Dumpster fire fuel. Happy nov 6th