Brexit Reset: Starmer will 'struggle' to grow economy without revisiting deal
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- Опубликовано: 13 сен 2024
- "We have seen no practical signs of a reset. If anything, the prime minister seems to be taking a very cautious approach."
Keir Starmer will "struggle" to see the economic benefits of a supposed reset of relations with the EU without bringing Britain closer to the bloc, says David Henig, UK Director of European Centre For International Political Economy.
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we need to back to the EU..
The EU will not allow the UK to cherry-pick
We don’t want to go back anyway so who cares. 😂
We want to be back in the EU and we will have to accept their terms. End of.
@@countfosco8535 We dont want to go back in and Starmer is not trying to do so.
He is attempting to do deals on a country basis not with the EU.
@@clownofthetimes6727The Conservatives tried to decide and conker in the early days of the negotiations but it didn't work
The EU was built on cherry-picking. Some in Shengen, some not. Some in single market, some not. Some with euro, some not. UK should stand up for itself just like every other member does. I should add that while a member, the UK adhered to EU laws and requirements better than most EU countries.
I reckon Starmer will come back largely empty-handed.
The UK has still to fully comply with the TCA, which is the only UK/EU "deal" at the moment and that comes up for review, i.e. audit, not renegotiation in May 2026 regarding its implementation status and the parties fulfillment of their obligations under it. Until then nothing will happen. There may be something to do regarding cooperation but as far as trade is concerned that is only negotiable by the EU as a bloc and not unilaterally by any member country.
RESET explained
------------------------------
1.
After the UK leaves the EU, UK is a third country. All the advantages of membership are gone for the time being. In return, the UK save the membership fee (that's between £8bn and £12bn net per year - higher figures from the Brexit campaign were a lie)
The same applies to the EU. It too had advantages through UK membership. These have also disappeared. And she no longer receives a membership fee from the UK.
2.
The UK and the EU have negotiated a follow-up agreement following the UK's withdrawal. This is the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA). The purpose is to reinstall some of the lost benefits.
3.
The EU has regulated some areas on an EU-wide basis. Exclusively for the 27 EU member states, there are numerous advantages in these areas.
4.
The EU has negotiated a treaty with a number of third countries, which also gives them some of the benefits that are otherwise only available to club members. These are Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and Liechtenstein. They receive some of the club benefits. In return, they pay a contribution to the EU every year. In order to get the deal, they have committed to implementing all EU regulations in their country. They have no say in this. They have to do what the EU specifies in the areas affected by the treaty.
5.
The UK has refused to conclude a treaty with the EU as described in point 4.
In the meantime, the EU has declared that it will generally no longer conclude "special" agreements with third countries other than those described in point 4. The back door for joining the single market and the customs union SEPERATLY has been closed.
6.
The UK and the EU have concluded another treaty, the TCA (point 2). It is a small part of what the EU member states and the partner states have agreed in point 4.
7.
After 3 years, the UK has realised that there are many problems in the UK that arose after Brexit. In addition, the Covid19 pandemic and the costs of the war in Ukraine are having an impact.
8.
This is where the "reset" mentioned by Starmer comes in.
Many areas are not regulated EU-wide. For these areas, each member state can negotiate a bilateral agreement with the UK.
The aforementioned agreement with Germany, which is due to be concluded in a few months' time, is one such bilateral agreement.
9.
Starmer is playing a trick here.
His wording is so clever that many Britons read it to mean that it will bring them back the old EU advantages or drastically reduce the disadvantages of Brexit.
10.
This is not the case.
It brings back neither the single market nor the customs union.
11.
To illustrate this with a figure:
If the losses due to the end of EU membership are set at 100%, the possible new "reset agreements" with individual EU states will only bring back a TOTAL of 5%, maybe less.
12.
This means that even after the "reset" with individual EU states, the UK will still have to bear 95% of the Brexit losses resulting from the withdrawal.
13.
Starmer makes you Brits believe that it's not about a 5% improvement with the EU but about 50%, 60% or even more. And all this without having to pay the club fee.
14.
So Starmer is lying here just like the Tories have been lying since 2016.
it not his choice, the EU have said what they want to happen before they even talk about it, main one being honor the Brexit deal, so it be another 5 years if all goes well... we have to make the best of a Torie batshit siltation.
Public opinion has moved decidedly against Brexit, but even if the PM wanted to reverse it, he can't. It isn't up to us. It's up to the EU to decide. We could ask to rejoin, but without major political reforms, it isn't going to happen, sadly! Repairing the damage will take decades!
The UK becomes a ratified member of CPTPP in December 2024 so that will preclude rejoining the EU.
@@aleph8888 which it could just leave with 6 months notice
Starmer hasn't hot a clue what he is doing
Reminder: the British people never voted to leave the Single Market or the Customs Union. The UK government violated its constitutional authority by not asking the citizens of the UK for a mandate to leave. The reason the Conservatives didn’t ask the British people is because they knew the British people would never have supported leaving.
Well you might not, but I did. I voted for the whole package to leave the EU. The torys just never got it sorted and made a complete hash of it. Next we need to leave the ECHR.
We voted to leave/ repeal the acts that tied us to the legal and polical framework of the European union in which the uk had adopted. In which by my measurement we has a country still hasn't yet fully done.
Not what I remember but I do remember the result of a referendum vote which you obviously have chosen to ignore.
@@deanbenn918Twice wrong in one post is a feat.
You seem to have completely missed the result of the referendum! People DID vote to leave the Single Market/Customs union.
Yes indeed Starmer will struggle to grow the UK economy without revising the deal, but given he's not moving his/Brexiteer red lines, there's nothing to revisit. Greetings from the EU.
Starmer is doing a David Davis replay, the only difference is David finally wound up at the right table. What Starmer is doing is visiting countries that are ideologically closer to Labour and trying to find some support. That gambit will fail because the pendulum in the EU is swinging back to the right side of the political spectrum. Even the most influential countries can and won’t even try to accommodate the UK in any way. Cherry picking is definitely not on the table. The EU has more then enough on its plate to sort out. Ir really doesn’t need the headache of trying to negotiate anything significant with the UK especially not because the UK has still to comply with the TCA.
😂😂😂 we don't want a Starmer in the EU. Keep that out of it, we already have enough problems
Should never have left ! Effing Tories
Brexit was used by johnson and the tories...To gain power...nothing else.
Effing democratic votes!
@@sushiginger444 weird
@@bennyboy2079what’s weird? Complying with a democratic referendum vote?
@@sushiginger444 another would be diffrent I'm sure ..now people can see how disastrous it was!
Nothing will change. What is it the English still don’t understand?
I hear lord Ali supplied the nasal Knight with a lovely pair of bejeweled knee pads for the occasion.
Like.
😀
I'm sure you will get them back eventually
Good luck to the brits for the futute. Voters got scammed with brexit now they just assume the real brexit wasnt achieved. Maybe exiting EU was never positive.
Not another reset. I remember Clinton doing the big reset with Russia. That didn’t go well did it ! Rumour has it that Lavrov is still chuckling.
Don't you need to do a referendum on this first?
When do totalitarian regimes do reforendoms get realistic
Considering a referendum is just pointless theatre with no legal validity, no not really
Is the first step to implement the withdrawal agreement? Seems that ball is in the UK court to do this.
Brexit is over . Let’s get back into the EU asap
Brexit was a failed experiment.
Before Starmer can grow the economy he needs to have a great number of the population on his side and I am afraid that is going to be impossible with his present attitude to them.
??? Care to explain how that works?
@@samhartford8677 How about if he starts listening to peoples concerns and doing something about 1. The high rate of stabbings going on (addressing knife crime robustly) and 2. Seriously adressing the illegal immigration and immigration issues in general. Now that would go along way to getting people on his side. That enough for you fo now ?
@@samhartford8677 ??? You mean you really don't know?
@@webbo9798 That would do for today and tomorrow he can give pensioners back their winter fuel allowance and build more jail space for illegal migrants instead of jailing protestors for doing what's right !!
@@gudnite Are you going to answer or just going keep pretending you have a actual opinion ?
Hopefully back in Europe soon.
@@garyfletcher1910It will be 25 yrs or more if ever .
No
ive never left Europe ever. i think British people and the EU should remember that the uk is European too just because we are an island doesn't change facts. Europe has always been my neighbor and welcome in my mind and hopefully vice versa for them. the whole "we gotta pay to stay in a club "were already in is just corruption at the highest level . its well past time to stop being sheep to all these national dictators and start making our own trades privately with our overseas counterparts. we do still have communications overseas so a phone call or letter email etc would make the deal go through without the bureaucracy that comes with it at the moment. the problem is people have become lazy to make the actual effort to do this themselves.
@@countfosco8535 hopefully 🤞🤞
Errr… we are the fastest growing country in the G7. Above France and Germany.
@@sushiginger444 BS
As europeans we would welcome our cousins from Uk back into European Community. Just do it
No thanks.
Yes please.
Yes please!!!
More complicated than that. Do you want to be renegotiating their exit in 10 years when the Tory Brexit party is back in power. It's not in our interest to have the constant insecurity in the economy about market access to each others' markets. Before the UK has a steady political support for re-entry also in the Tory party, there is no point for the EU in having a revolving door, spending millions on the negotiations and not reaping the benefits of more (UK) companies basing themselves in the EU to access the UK market instead of vice versa.
Who is "we"? I'm also an EU citizen and I haven met anyone here who wants the UK back. Just the opposite. People now have a more positive perception and opinion about what the EU is and what it does. Hard to imagine that it is a coincidence that the EU works smoother, faster and better since Brexit. There is certainly no desire to bring back the UK's internal divisions into the EU.
heir starmer peace in our time at 19.39pm
UK grew fastest in the G7 for the first half of the year. Aside from transitional issues, why do people think that the UK cannot do just fine outside of the EU, considering three of the richest (and most democratic) countries in Europe - Switzerland, Norway and Iceland - seem to be doing just fine? I am all for cooperation with the EU whenever it makes sense, but some people seem to have a one-track mind on this issue.
Those three are outside the EU, but they do adhere to EU rules because they're part of the EEA. So kindly stop lying, thank you.
Second time you showed for all to see you utter lack grasping basics.
Is your name by any chance Ian Duncan Smith?
Because the EU would be the UK's largest trading partner. Switzerland, Norway and a few countries did the same and then went in with 1 foot (single market and customs union). The GDP can grow all it wants.. but it will not be enough.
Traitor
@@guff9567 how?
Geez… Why are we still talking about BREXIT? It is already done and over. Are we still going to negotiate and renegotiate the BREXIT deal 50 years from now? This is crazy.
Brexit is a mistake. Fixes are needed.
Businesses do not mind re-negotiating. Why is that bad?
@@makelvin should never have left ..countrys never been in such a state
"The European Union and all leaders of all European countries must use immigration to undermine the homogeneity and ethnic identity of the native European people, no matter how difficult this will be to explain to the citizens of their nations. This must happen, this _will_ happen for globalism to take hold of Europe." -- *Peter Denis Sutherland* (1946-2018) Irish international businessman and former Attorney General of Ireland. He was United Nations Special Representative of the Secretary General for Migration and Development (Speaking in the House of Lords, 2014)