This is the best video you have done for a long time Paul. This is exactly what your viewers want to see. Adobe is an excellent company and I’m a buyer at these levels too. I can only dream of 400 shares but my 100 shares will do me fine at these prices
21 times next years earnings and 24 times free cash flow is not an egregious valuation for a company with 90% gross margins, 25% profit margins, 36% ROE with less than 1 times debt to equity and free cash flow. Adobe’s issue is management, this is a tech bull market where stocks are moving on forward guidance.
Forward PE of 21 right now seems like a decent buy. Seems like to may be a good buy from Paul. Although I won’t buy it myself, for me I am not sure if AI will impact their business negatively. I just don’t know enough to make an intelligent decision. Hope it works out for Paul.
I think the market is pricing in OpenAI's new video editor... that's what I was thinking, who will be the next in line after Chegg. That's the risk of technology stocks, they can get disrupted. That's why Warren Buffet avoids tech stocks... risky. But otherwise, Adobe is a great company.
Can y’all do a video on Quantum computing stocks ? Please. I’m thinking most of them are a bust and will come crashing back down. Would love to hear y’all’s thoughts on it. Thanks
Finally Paul bought a company that is actually good instead of buying Intel. But I am surprised he bought at this price. I remember he was saying a lower entry price at some point. Regardless, I am happy Adobe tanked to 400. Will buy more though I hate their monopoly and am sure it will be challenged very fiercely in a couple of years.
Ben Graham's P/E formula says P/E at Intrinsic Value would be 8.5 + 2 x Long Term Growth Rate 30 P/E implies Long Term Growth Rate of (30 - 8.5)/2 = 21.5 / 2 = 10.75% over the next 10 years...
@@barryallen6927 Please enlighten us ;-) The P/E Ratio at the Intrinsic Value... Not the current P/E being paid in the market... A company that has Zero Growth still has some value, and reasonably you might expect to pay for 8.5 years of earnings if you bought the stock today. If the company has any growth at all you would expect to pay more for the stock today as the cashflows over time will grow. Therefore, If a company is growing at 5% per year, then the Reasonable Price to pay today would be 8.5 + 2*5 = 18.5 P/E. You could add the Current Assets minus Current Liabilities per share, as current assets are not used in production... If the current P/E of this stock is less than 18.5, then the stock is selling at a discount and is under-priced, and you stand to make a good gain if you buy. However, if people are paying a 30 P/E for this company, they are paying too much, and the stock is over-priced. Paul's Calculator does a Discounted Cash Flow based on the Current Earnings and Growth Rate to tell what is a reasonable price to pay today for the stock today... Its results will be close to this Intrinsic value...
Wow never knew he was a multi millionaire. The revenue that comes from this RUclips channel and the EM software won’t be that high to make you invest 30M in real estate in 1 year. Are you saying truth Paul? And Tim is the CEO of EM right and you work for him?
Thought the big falls were coming ? On hold ? Adobe i'd give a miss, 25-50% gains if you're very lucky. Far better shares out there, after another pullback.
I was looking at this. I'm hesitant because may be better opportunities. This stock seems seems to plunge after every earnings report and is hated by Wall Street. Not sure about the AI competitive pressures. It's down to $420 but hard to know the bottom. I won't buy Nike either. The competitive landscape has changed. I can buy an Under Armour fitness outfit which is much more comfortable to wear for me. Nike has lost it's prestige factor. No one cares if I wear a Nike outfit or a generic brand at the gym. Just too much competition in my opinion.
@better upside potential, earning have been positive surprises, long runway for continued great growth. Adobe is an excellent company but it has its own set of challenges. ANET will grow out of high long term debt ratio and is not crazy overvalued for the path it’s on. Imo, 400 of Adobe and the rest in ANET would be a safe investment with high growth potential and a defensive hedge if the unthinkable happens…
Most is under attack, AI workflow could change drastically in the coming years. Even if it didn’t, the sentiment is gonna drag the stock down for a long long time
And today we got a price I couldn't resist. Still a great company with a great balance sheet. I think the AI-related scepticism is overblown, well it's my guess. Maybe another story 5 years from now, how knows. Reminds me of the hate/screpticism towards Google and search. How about them now?? Pretty loved stock?!
Paul is a fantastic business man and a hustler and it sounds like he's a really good real estate investor too. However, after watching almost every video on this channel for the past 2 years I've realized he's not a good stock market investor. He's said multiple times he hasn't made money in the past 4 years where the market is up almost double. He waits too long to buy stocks because he thinks they will contract and when he does buy stocks, they're high PE's with bad momentum and way too much competition and headwinds. How did Baba turn out for him? down almost 50% from when he bought it. Just an example.
learn to read charts. when a stock beats earnings and drops, wall street is just going down to touch the bottom of an uptrend line. wall street does this to shake out the weak hands. and it 100% works. if adobe is bullish, we can go down to 400$ per share and bounce up because around the 400$ mark is the bottom of the uptrend line. AMD is doing the same thing. if we are going down to touch uptrend lines with AMD, then AMD should go down to close to 100$ per share and bounce up. edit: i also plan to buy adobe when it approaches the 400$ target i have for myself and no one else because no one else needs to listen to my plans or logic because im not a financial advisor
This guys keeps going back and forth from the market will crash like we've never seen before to recommending stocks. He's been as lost as anyone can be for a decade now. Watching all these RUclips self-proclaimed gurus really is eye opening.
its a strong stock with low growth return, for long term Invesment plan is a great stock , but for very aggressive investor. Nvidia, Tesla. Amazon, the seven magnificent would be more growth . i value your work its amazing clean and clever analysis, thanks for bring food for my thoughts.
I like Adobe but for me it needs to fall mid 300s. There are major risks to Adobe imo such as AI. If you see what Sora and Veo accomplished, it is very impressive especially Veo. The physics are unbelievable. Also Canva is taking serious market share from Adobe and I believe that’s a huge concern of their moat. AI imo is a huge potential risk to them which is why I want a discount on this.
@@EverythingMoney well so far you have been wrong on pretty much every one of your predictions. With ChatGPT a monkey could write photoshop or after effects. Chat will change the software industry. Think of all the free apps that can augment photographs and videos? Adobe will be virtually out of buinsness in 5 years unless they change their model. No one is going to pay for technology they can get for free.
Why did you release a video after you buy? It should release a video and buy after that? I'm sorry this is just thought for transparency with your followers. Personally I don't care either way. Thank you
"Only price pays". I drew a long-term support trend from a 2016 low ($74) to a 2022 low ($274). The zone to begin dollar cost averaging down, starts at $360 (trendline) to $274 (last low). Percentage wise its a 50-66% retracement from all time high. Also, Adobe is still falling. Based on the charts. "Value" is determined by institutions. Institutions will decide when Adobe becomes valuable by stabilizing the price into a trade range.
solid high quality business for long term growth , wide moat, ROIC, reasonable PEG, no debt, Adobe checked all marks!! Good entry point!
Tx for sharing - GC
Finally bought a good company, good job!
😂
Tx for the comment - GC
This is the best video you have done for a long time Paul. This is exactly what your viewers want to see. Adobe is an excellent company and I’m a buyer at these levels too. I can only dream of 400 shares but my 100 shares will do me fine at these prices
Best video cuz it's confirming your bias? 😆
Glad you enjoyed it!AP
Wow, 400 shares? Paul must be rolling in cash! But hey, can you share some proof of the purchase? It’d be great to see some receipts to back it up!”
Just google him , and you will see its true .AP
It sounds like you broke your rule! The company is expensive
Agree
Stop hating ur mad he’s rich and t ur r not
Maybe - GC
21 times next years earnings and 24 times free cash flow is not an egregious valuation for a company with 90% gross margins, 25% profit margins, 36% ROE with less than 1 times debt to equity and free cash flow. Adobe’s issue is management, this is a tech bull market where stocks are moving on forward guidance.
Photo and video editing will be THE MOST disrupted industry by AI, Adobe will get some pie, but competition will be fierce.
You must be pretty well off to start a new position with 180k. That’s cool. Hope it’s a great purchase
Thank you - GC
The Elite Society's Money Manifestation ebook made me realize so much about attracting wealth, it’s insane
still holding? did you buy more on this week's dip?
I assume that u will get no reply here))
"Are they buying back cheap shares? I have to look and see." Why not look before starting a position? Wouldn't the answer change the analysis?
I think he's just talking us through the process. He already knows.
Good point - GC
I am assuming you sold puts and got assigned. What was your assigned price.
That's he's strategy yes .AP
Forward PE of 21 right now seems like a decent buy. Seems like to may be a good buy from Paul. Although I won’t buy it myself, for me I am not sure if AI will impact their business negatively. I just don’t know enough to make an intelligent decision. Hope it works out for Paul.
Appreciate that -GC
I think the market is pricing in OpenAI's new video editor... that's what I was thinking, who will be the next in line after Chegg. That's the risk of technology stocks, they can get disrupted. That's why Warren Buffet avoids tech stocks... risky. But otherwise, Adobe is a great company.
Good stuff - GC
I would wait for a better price. $360 - $270.
Can y’all do a video on Quantum computing stocks ? Please. I’m thinking most of them are a bust and will come crashing back down. Would love to hear y’all’s thoughts on it. Thanks
Finally Paul bought a company that is actually good instead of buying Intel. But I am surprised he bought at this price. I remember he was saying a lower entry price at some point. Regardless, I am happy Adobe tanked to 400. Will buy more though I hate their monopoly and am sure it will be challenged very fiercely in a couple of years.
A very good presentation. However, in my opinion too much focus on the numbers compared to the business and the presumptions of its growth prospects.
Thats what our videos are about only numbers , its up to one personally to do a deeper dive if numbers make sense .AP
Ben Graham's P/E formula says
P/E at Intrinsic Value would be 8.5 + 2 x Long Term Growth Rate
30 P/E implies Long Term Growth Rate of (30 - 8.5)/2 = 21.5 / 2 = 10.75% over the next 10 years...
Tx for sharing - GC
Outdated formula. Doesn't work in today's market. It's much more complex than that.
@@barryallen6927 Please enlighten us ;-)
The P/E Ratio at the Intrinsic Value... Not the current P/E being paid in the market...
A company that has Zero Growth still has some value, and reasonably you might expect to pay for 8.5 years of earnings if you bought the stock today. If the company has any growth at all you would expect to pay more for the stock today as the cashflows over time will grow. Therefore, If a company is growing at 5% per year, then the Reasonable Price to pay today would be 8.5 + 2*5 = 18.5 P/E.
You could add the Current Assets minus Current Liabilities per share, as current assets are not used in production...
If the current P/E of this stock is less than 18.5, then the stock is selling at a discount and is under-priced, and you stand to make a good gain if you buy.
However, if people are paying a 30 P/E for this company, they are paying too much, and the stock is over-priced.
Paul's Calculator does a Discounted Cash Flow based on the Current Earnings and Growth Rate to tell what is a reasonable price to pay today for the stock today... Its results will be close to this Intrinsic value...
@@barryallen6927 It's a Rule of Thumb for the Reasonable Intrinsic Value P'/E Ratio for a Stock. Less is a bargain. More is Over-Priced...
What do you think about nestle at the current price
Will give it a look .AP
Absolutely! Comcast is about to go crazy as too!
I’m with you on this Paul! I waited this entire year to get into Adobe! I’m in Adobe now and plan to grow it into a big position
Good stuff - GC
It’s bizarre that this stock has a very high stock based compensation and people are still buying it with its current price
Adobe is an amazing company. Bought it a short while ago and it’s down about 10% so am going to add to my position.
Hope you do great.AP
Can we see the email confirmation showing that you actually bought this stock.
Isn't Adobe not monetizing AI (like CRM) and that's why it feel too bad. I had a swing trade and got badly hit. I hope it goes up.
loved the chat shares great addition
Is it just me, or does ADBE monthly chart looks like it's about to sht the bed?
Maybe - GC
@@JakubVacek42 look at the financial statements
Wow never knew he was a multi millionaire. The revenue that comes from this RUclips channel and the EM software won’t be that high to make you invest 30M in real estate in 1 year. Are you saying truth Paul? And Tim is the CEO of EM right and you work for him?
This is not the only company they own .AP
what caused the bug dump back on 12/12?
Tx for following us - GC
Earnings
Remember when Paul was hoping Intel would fall after he bought shares, we'll it did fall lower and always keeps falling lower for 25 years.
Thanks for the comment .AP
Thought the big falls were coming ? On hold ?
Adobe i'd give a miss, 25-50% gains if you're very lucky.
Far better shares out there, after another pullback.
Tx for the note -GC
Adobe’s a stock I was really considering but decided to go elsewhere for now. Hope it works out for you Paul!
Yeah, better deals in energy and industrials right now. Google would probably a better buy too.
Where to ? AP
Already own Adobe. Good buy under $450, although they growung have competition from third parties.
Good one - GC
Looks like it will be good if everything works out towards the high end if not it's not very impressive
Coolio - GC
Can you analyze Intel in a next video? 👍👍
Sure we will re visit .AP
But if he's absolutely certain that the stock will reach $200, why buy now instead of waiting for it to drop to at least $300? or less
I was looking at this. I'm hesitant because may be better opportunities. This stock seems seems to plunge after every earnings report and is hated by Wall Street. Not sure about the AI competitive pressures. It's down to $420 but hard to know the bottom. I won't buy Nike either. The competitive landscape has changed. I can buy an Under Armour fitness outfit which is much more comfortable to wear for me. Nike has lost it's prestige factor. No one cares if I wear a Nike outfit or a generic brand at the gym. Just too much competition in my opinion.
You should have bought ANET.
Why .AP
@better upside potential, earning have been positive surprises, long runway for continued great growth. Adobe is an excellent company but it has its own set of challenges. ANET will grow out of high long term debt ratio and is not crazy overvalued for the path it’s on. Imo, 400 of Adobe and the rest in ANET would be a safe investment with high growth potential and a defensive hedge if the unthinkable happens…
Where do you own realestate at is it all in Cleveland
USA mostly and some Mexico .AP
@EverythingMoney any markets looking good to you? I'm looking to buy an investment/vacation property.
Most is under attack, AI workflow could change drastically in the coming years. Even if it didn’t, the sentiment is gonna drag the stock down for a long long time
And today we got a price I couldn't resist.
Still a great company with a great balance sheet. I think the AI-related scepticism is overblown, well it's my guess. Maybe another story 5 years from now, how knows.
Reminds me of the hate/screpticism towards Google and search. How about them now?? Pretty loved stock?!
Paul is a fantastic business man and a hustler and it sounds like he's a really good real estate investor too. However, after watching almost every video on this channel for the past 2 years I've realized he's not a good stock market investor. He's said multiple times he hasn't made money in the past 4 years where the market is up almost double. He waits too long to buy stocks because he thinks they will contract and when he does buy stocks, they're high PE's with bad momentum and way too much competition and headwinds. How did Baba turn out for him? down almost 50% from when he bought it. Just an example.
Ain’t nothing worse than a high P/E stock with bad momentum
Fair enough - GC
No money back guarantee......totally bummer on the subscription.
I might as well when PE drops below 25.
Good stuff - GC
😮😮😮🤔🤔🤔
I forgot Adobe is a stock.
Now you know .AP
Adobe software might become obsolete since AI does a lot of the graphic design and photo/video manipulation.
Yes could be , but adobe could also implement that .AP
You are not taking account to digital creators and professionals relying on adobe software. The client base of professionals use asobe. Not AI.
Did you buy $CROX ?
learn to read charts. when a stock beats earnings and drops, wall street is just going down to touch the bottom of an uptrend line. wall street does this to shake out the weak hands. and it 100% works. if adobe is bullish, we can go down to 400$ per share and bounce up because around the 400$ mark is the bottom of the uptrend line. AMD is doing the same thing. if we are going down to touch uptrend lines with AMD, then AMD should go down to close to 100$ per share and bounce up. edit: i also plan to buy adobe when it approaches the 400$ target i have for myself and no one else because no one else needs to listen to my plans or logic because im not a financial advisor
Interesting thanks for sharing your knowledge .AP
@EverythingMoney and here we are at 400$ per share on Adobe 😊
This guys keeps going back and forth from the market will crash like we've never seen before to recommending stocks. He's been as lost as anyone can be for a decade now. Watching all these RUclips self-proclaimed gurus really is eye opening.
its a strong stock with low growth return, for long term Invesment plan is a great stock , but for very aggressive investor. Nvidia, Tesla. Amazon, the seven magnificent would be more growth . i value your work its amazing clean and clever analysis, thanks for bring food for my thoughts.
Nice one -GC
if you would have waited 2-3 more weeks, you would have bought 500 shares with that money.. if you still want to buy it :)
I like Adobe but for me it needs to fall mid 300s. There are major risks to Adobe imo such as AI. If you see what Sora and Veo accomplished, it is very impressive especially Veo. The physics are unbelievable. Also Canva is taking serious market share from Adobe and I believe that’s a huge concern of their moat. AI imo is a huge potential risk to them which is why I want a discount on this.
Tx for the note - GC
Sold naked calls on ADBE this week for nice gains. Don't think this stock is a long at this time. Good luck.
Best of luck - GC
I think there are a lot of websites that provide certain features for free. Such as merging documents
Good stuff -GC
Feels like a scripted adobe pitch
LOL.AP
I’ll buy it at $317
Nice one -GC
What can Adobe do that you can't do with A.I. tools, I'm not an Adobe bull.
Tx for the note -GC
Huge threat from Ai. They will be out of business soon as it’s not only threat from AI but extremely bad customer service to cancel the subscriptions
but we plugged in my made up numbers and it spat out good made up numbers
Tx for the comment - GC
Why can’t Adobe also use A.I.?
I took some the moment was down💪
Nice one - GC
Guys I m investing in Kodak, trust me
Good for you .AP
@EverythingMoney sharing investment advices is a tough world
Down 45K
Adobe is overvalued
It sure could be .AP
I hate Adobe with a passion.
Why ? AP
well arn't you Mr Smarty Pants !
Buying Adobe in AI era lol
Nothing that they could not learn and implement on their software .AP
@ the best fundamental model would cost tenths if not hundred of billions. Only few companies have that kind of money. All the best with your bets.
Adobe has no momentum, it stuck till the next earnings. Palantir dips are making money Adobe is sleeping.
Adobe seems like the weaker AI play of all software
Adobe is one stock you don't want to buy. Free AI will replace it.
If you say so .AP
@@EverythingMoney well so far you have been wrong on pretty much every one of your predictions. With ChatGPT a monkey could write photoshop or after effects. Chat will change the software industry. Think of all the free apps that can augment photographs and videos? Adobe will be virtually out of buinsness in 5 years unless they change their model. No one is going to pay for technology they can get for free.
i would like to buy Adobe @ 200. , Pltr is $80 do you think in the next 4 years, it will be $ 400 ...
Anything can happen , I would also love $200 but sometimes you have to act and overpay .AP
Their business is challenged heavily by AI such as photoshop. It is losing moat and not rock solid. That’s the reason theprofit margins decrease.
Tx for the note -GC
Why did you release a video after you buy? It should release a video and buy after that?
I'm sorry this is just thought for transparency with your followers.
Personally I don't care either way.
Thank you
These videos are for educational purposes only and not as a prompt to buy....in actual fact you should not buy anything you see on RUclips - GC
🏦💎✅
i want them to buy autodesk
That could be an interesting purchase .AP
Adobe is shit. There is not true value behind this product
Why do you think that .AP
Adobe is a ripoff
How so .AP
Adobe has no future, their apps are no longer needed.
Fair enough - GC
adobes issue is AI. it's losing its relevance. Not a stock I'd be buying
"Only price pays".
I drew a long-term support trend from a 2016 low ($74) to a 2022 low ($274). The zone to begin dollar cost averaging down, starts at $360 (trendline) to $274 (last low).
Percentage wise its a 50-66% retracement from all time high. Also, Adobe is still falling. Based on the charts. "Value" is determined by institutions. Institutions will decide when Adobe becomes valuable by stabilizing the price into a trade range.
Good stuff - GC