We Screwed Up! When Will Perth Property Market Crash? Australian Economy In Big Trouble!
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- Опубликовано: 28 май 2024
- When Will The Perth Housing Market Finally Crash?
💸 Perth's property market is leading Australia in growth. Prices are rising, Rents are rising, Supply is low.
📍 But there's a hidden pinprick that could POP this "bubble".
📉 In this episode I provide a 2024 update on Perth's housing market and share my honest thoughts on what could cause the market to collapse.
... and bring Australia's entire economy down with it 😨
I normally don't share content like this, but I have to call a spade a spade ♠️
#perthproperty #australiaimmigration #australianews
Chapters:
00:00:00 - Perth Property Market Growth
00:01:12 - The Potential Crash of Perth's Housing Market
00:02:25 - The Housing Supply Dilemma
00:03:26 - Housing shortage and migration policies
00:04:28 - Rising Perth Home Prices and Rents
00:05:43 - Declining Household Disposable Income in Australia
00:06:53 - The Problem with Australia's Economy
00:08:01 - The Skill Shortage and Imported Labor
00:09:11 - The Growing Gap Between the Halves and Have Nots in Australia
00:10:19 - The Shaky Australian Economy
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Like this new refreshing, honest non MSM style of video :)
Well said PK. Take this message around and hopefully someone who is responsible see the danger as you see it before its too late. Thank you for trying to do something in your capacity for common man otherwise I know you are well off for not to bother these sort of things.
You have explained this so well thank you
Refreshing to see non biased content my friend. We can always be bullish. Cooler heads prevail.
Many young people I talk to (here in Perth), are just working towards leaving (going to to live in Asia, work remotely etc.). They don't feel like this is their country anymore, neither do I.
Young people just simply dislike anything they are familiar
Don’t let the door hit you on the way out Steve
@@nq6417 Thanks for your concern nq6417, I made enough outside of property to retire early overseas (remote work just to keep me occupied). I'll be back to AUS at retirement age to mooch off the medical system supported by rude, but hard working people like you. Make sure the system doesn't collapse until I get back okay? Lol.
@@Steve-kk8yb listen to yourself and think for just one second about the people who died for your freedom. I’d rather be rude than disgusting. Please stay away from Australia now and forever
@nq6417 The kind of Australian attitude that makes people want to leave even more. It's an unfriendly place which looks nice. There are good earning opportunities but it's not a friendly place to live.
Great video PK , it is just crazy how the government doesn’t want to admit or see what’s really going on , which is mostly caused by there poor policies.
Pretty much!
Brave hypothesis - I agree with you.
It’s hard to quantify laziness.. but productivity is a huge problem and can bring Australia down if china ever stops liking us
Thanks for all the great content you provide. I was hoping to hear about Perths property market vs rest of Australia, but unless im missing something, i just heard a general take on Aus property and economy
Yes I think it’s more exposed to the phenomenon I explained that rest of Australia
@@AusPropertyMasteryWithPK does this then mean that we should not invest in Perth to avoid that exposure and look at other markets in Aus ?
@@baljcheema934 I think it’s a long term dynamic. 10 years plus.
@@AusPropertyMasteryWithPK 100%
A huge problem I’ve noticed is the role of universities in skewing net migration towards students rather than skilled professionals and tradies. International students generate a fortune for the unis but at what cost? We need people who are ready to work full-time on day 1 in construction, tech, health etc, rather than students commencing 2-4 year degrees while working in hospo/uber/retail. Any thoughts?
Yes we covered this in the last video
You should join the government to change this issue 🎉. I think you can!!! Good luck PK. Thank you for all your information!!!
Culture, single mom with 2 or 3 kids claiming pension, no chance of buying a home or even affording rent . Lazy people straight out of school no real education to get them anywhere hooking up with a lady having a few kids,spending the rest of their lives on social security . You try getting anyone from anywhere to leave their city and go fruit or vegetable picking in the country to get ahead. Not going to happen, rather struggle and c,aim benifits. Then complain about it being unfair.
Thats the reason the government brings in foreign workers,mainly from asian countries. No social security or free hand outs,work or starve. Most have families back home,work 6 days a week,shared accommodation, then send most of tbeir salary back home so their family can survive. Its a cultural thing ,here in australia the government has always taken care of things,but no the tide is turning. Australia is becoming expensive and people have choices to make. Do whatvitvtakes to get ahead,work wise. Or be left behind and end up broke and miserable your whole life, Not everyone will make it,but if you dont try you wont know.
The government has created this problem and they wont save you . Your future is in your hands,how badly do you want to change it. Before i get any back lash, i have a son struggling, i told him apply for a job in the mining sector, he has a semi license. Or try the oil industry, the response, stuff that being away from home and mates. Plus working 12 hrs a day. Rather be broke . Thats all cool until you hit the big 50 and then you realize you F@_(÷$ up.
I do agree with you 100% ,great explanation and content. Australia used to be the lucky country 20 or 30 years ago. Now you have to earn that right,its not going to be handed to you.
Ive got news for you, the foreign workers arent picking fruit. Because they arent stupid. Generally they are taking semi or unskilled jobs because it pays the same money , or more. so they become taxi drivers, trick drivers, security guards etc. Not only that, these are the students who come here to "study". They are a drain on our economy. And you pushing your son to be FIFO, not for everyone, high suicide rate amongst FIFO workers.
I think you are spot on, but I also think that none of this is by accident, and even if we become activists, it will probably only delay it slightly. We've been on a slow trajectory for decades but it became much more acute and noticeable this past few years. It's good that people are starting to speak more openly about it, but I think Aussies have been bred apathetic for way too long and don't have it in them to rock the boat. Not like some other cultures where they will protest en masse and throw firebombs and storm Parliament House. People born in Australia have had it very good and don't realise that they actually must fight to keep it that way. The changes with the new Australian Curriculum in public and private schools should also have people very worried. I think a majority is just too busy working trying to make ends meet and won't even take notice of how their own children are being, quite often, turned against them using various ideologies. It's really quite sinister when you start digging a bit and looking at the bigger picture - and see how it's already being done in the UK, Ireland, Canada, and other places where there is no resistance to it.
I’m no expert, but yes seems were quite a docile bunch
You could argue that it's not our fault but if we can't assemble ourselves as a nation (which is apparently much more complicated in a multicultural fragmented society like ours) and find the balls to fight back, then we might as well accept our fate, right?@@AusPropertyMasteryWithPK
@@cocosilkworm maybe.. the US is also very multicultural and seem to fight for their right more than Australians? Again, I don’t have studied data into this
I wonder if it is to do with our welfare system that makes people softer? Perhaps in the US they have more fight in them because they have nothing to lose. Whereas here, if you do the wrong thing, they could try to freeze a payment and make your life a little tougher than you are used to, so it keeps people more in line. Who knows? By the sounds though, most people in Australia, whether born here or immigrated here, understand that if they continue to leave the doors wide open, all of us are going to find a drop in our standard of living, so even the immigrants once they work out what's going on here, will try to get their families in but then say, hey enough, shut the doors a bit now please! Not completely because we still need a steady flow to keep business moving, but at a rate that we can keep up with. It still seems like they've done it on purpose - they knew the building sector was struggling - they knew letting a larger number than normal in would cause a big problem. I think they wanted to make people desperate so they would start crying out for the government public housing thing so we have no choice but to move towards the model they have in the UK where people will never fully own their properties outright. They had to create the conditions so people would see that is the only way now. @@AusPropertyMasteryWithPK
PK, I’m in my 50s and about 3 years into my work life, I thought the same thoughts about the locals being lazy. I’ve found it easy to get up the ladder because I just gave life a shot. It’s always been like this, it’s not a recent thing or due to immigrants.
I do agree that there may not be a stable foundation to this Perth boom in the long term and I also worry about the state or federal government doing something really stupid with policy that may pull the rug on investors that will soften the housing market. This is a crisis in Perth and political leaders are not known for good decisions
You're in your 50's and you have only been working for 3 years?
He probably meant 30 years.
Cool hat!!!
not crashing but uncertainty is still there with the mining sector, it's bigger than we think
I immigrated here 15 y ago. One of the funniest phrases I’ve heard is “hard-working Australians”. The standard is just different whether you like it or not..
Its oft talked about for sure
hardly working
Aussie sports men and women work hard. Aussies love their sport!
@@gothops2632 enter Nick Kyrgios (joking)
I have found most of the current crop of immigrants to be totally useless. They turn up to work in totally unsuitable occupations and expect to get paid for surfing their mobile phones. and they cannot do anything manual. I have no idea why we are importing them to be a drain.
You nailed it PK. I’d like to add that it’s not limited to the younger generation - many local Australians in their 30-50s have terrible work ethic and an overwhelming sense of entitlement. And when life gets hard, what they do is to blame it on the immigrants (including Brits, Asians and South Africans etc) for stealing their jobs and houses and vote the current govt out on the promise that things will change. A better life starts from within and a good life must be earned. It’s a concept many here don’t understand.
Maybe take your opinion back to your country?
Additionally, APRA macro prudential policies have been harming investing since 2015. Gov policy always creates more problems.
So does that mean all our investments may not grow in long term, especially Perth ?
High demand ... low supply ... it's artificial ... the Labor state government will not allow more land to be developed for housing because they claim it is bad for the environment. House prices could be slashed if Labor just allowed property developers to offer more land to the market.
I’d suggest that the reduction in Australia’s real gross household disposable income is due the to the increasing cost to services home loans.
We export more gas then dubai, they make 76 billion in taxes we make 2 billion in taxes. If we change that 1 thing australians wont have to increase productivity. We could abolish income tax and cgt
Thanks pankaj
Wrong person
PK, the question comes to my mind is we know that it’s the under $600-$700s that have been demonstrating this growth, assuming it continues in the short to mid term wouldn’t you expect to stagnate beyond a certain point for that kind of properties as they reach the price level of high end properties?
Of course, they can only grow so much in a cycle
@@AusPropertyMasteryWithPK yep makes sense. so Perth is not your Sydney
Perhaps Brisbane could be with Olympics coming up 🤷♂️
@@DisciplinedLion what do you mean by “your Sydney”?
Sydney is more volatile than Perth and hasn’t grown more in last 30 years. Also it underperformed Melbourne around the olympics.
I’ve done videos with data on both
@@AusPropertyMasteryWithPK what I meant by that is, Perth low cap $400-$500K properties may have a low likelihood of reaching 7 figures like how it happened in Sydney, over the last few decades, and they may have a ceiling around $600-$700K . Implying that holding long like in eastern states expecting over 7 figure level may not be a good idea?
@@DisciplinedLion I don’t think they will reach 7 figures this cycle
It’s definitely a paradox I would hate to solve, I think Aussies are very entitled that everyone should easily afford a house. Overseas in major capitals is extremely hard and I think we still have it good and better than most countries in so many ways. but Perth is well overdue this growth and people need to wake up and accept it’s not an old mining town horse that died in 2015 at last peak. I understand inflation is a problem, but they could make things a lot easier by improving lending lowering rates quicker, but also reducing tax on construction costs, or giving better incentives to bring more housing supply on to slow down the market and stop homelessness.
Thanks for sharing
Minning companies are seriously struggling to sell their product and forecast is for iron ore price to decline even more rapidly in near future, even go to lows of 55 dollars off 2016. This massive immigration along with job losses in WA state is going to result in perfect storm. Not everyone in WA works in mining but most of the high-income earners work there. Time will tell but affordability is going to take a serious hit in next few months. Even if u don't think mining causes property bust in WA, it still always has been eye of the storm, and we can see this building again on ground.
I was thinking the same but if I recall right, PK had a video explaining that boom in Perth over last 3 years has nothing to do with mining but an increase in separate residential property demand
Hi alizamun, I agree with you. Exports are not going well. For example, selling a mining product for $10 in the past and then the same product for $100 created lot of buzz.
@@DisciplinedLion I was waiting for the standard: mining will crash Perth comment
@@DisciplinedLion I believe it did..last three years mining contractor's including me saw 30-40% higher daily rates... now there is a lot of cheaper man power available for same roles as well as reduced roles in market...
Some of you people seem to think housing is the stock market.
Productivity isn’t caused by laziness because it’s gdp per hour worked. The only was to increase it is to have more capital intensive jobs which means a shift away from hard manual work towards a capital multiplier on labour.
Yes. He doesn't understand what he's talking about. More immigration actually lowers productivity.
So should I buy my first house?
People should go to Europe and see how prices have skyrocketed there.
Perth is quite affordable.
Very!
very true .... all locals are players and using Centrelink benefits or using new immigrants to use...
Immigrants have higher unemployment rates than Australian born, go look at the ABS data.
A run of the mill 3x1 in 1975 was around $30k
The rent was about $60 a week
By 1990 that 3x1 was worth $85,000 and rented for $110 a week
By 2018 that same pad was worth $350,000 to the Banks and rented for $300
Roll on 2024, now fetching an Ezy $500k and pushing $600 a week rents
If you study the above figures you will see a trend, it goes one way and that's UP
Based on the above and 30M population by 2030, that simple 3x1 could be worth $700,000 or even more.
Land and housing in Oz is a Monopoly, a Cartel Owned by the Banks.
Very true story
where does the money lent by the banks to buy the property come from???
as long as the banks "provide" the money for people to buy the property, the property price will always go up no matter what. just like what happened in the US before 2008. until people realize that all those money provided by the banks are created money which the solely purposed of it is to inflate property price.
Everyone keeps banging on about China but don’t they have some of the toughest restrictions for private foreign investments? Evergrande going under, their building economy in severe trouble (bad for our mining exports) and doesn’t China make up 2% of all foreign investments in Australia?
They were in more serious trouble in 2004 if you look at their property history
are you collating the data and making the graphs ?
Some other reasons for lost productivity:
Miss-allocation of investor capital into housing rather than productive assets
Huge growth in Gov employees/regulation which is non productive
High energy costs like in Europe is squashing production
Long covid (but then why arenother countries not so badly affected)
Sprawl and urban commutes
Thanks for sharing..
Don't forget that Perth stagnated about 5-years ..finally it moving right directions!!!
I agree with the lazy workers sentiment. Im 35 and 25 year olds dont work half as hard and take the piss with the breaks. Earning big mining bucks too. Infuriating.
big fan here, do you think 3x1 build in 80s on 700m2 in Armadale will reach 650- 700K (beyond it's intrinsic value) in the next few years or max out close to 600K? I am thinking to either buy or sell.
Glad I bought my piece of shit house in High Wycombe in 2016…. Got about $250k equity in it now, contemplating to renovate then rent or sell and buy closer to city
PK, how high do you think bitcoin will go within the next decade?
No idea on any crypto. I stick to what I know and has made me millions
real high unemployment rate is what will fix it. it might not happen soon but It will eventually happen after the current mining boom ends and more STEM jobs goes overseas as remote work gets more efficient , that will also make less people want to immigrate to Australia
Where is the beanie mate ? We going to get new videos from gangsta PK?
So we import more immigrants to build houses, but there's a 30-40% tax for developers? So how did houses get build in the past?
Taxes have gone up
As soon as i buy a perth property it will drop 50%
Maybe because of all these unproductive government jobs, with the cost of building a new primary residence
Everybody is working their arse off more these days. I don't understand.
💯
Makes me laugh how everyone points fingers. Phil, and others wrote about it 20 years ago.
Mr Anderson?
Who’s we?
when will we learn to ask govt questions? it is not people who are lazy but govt policies causing disposable income to dip
What I got from this is most people want a house and house prices have sky rocketed. But if you need cash flow then investing in units will be better because the prices haven't gone up as much but rents have. So for ---> cash flow units seem a better entry to invest in, in the beginning when you cant afford a house to invest in....... Did I miss something.
I don’t think investing in units should be a takeaway. That could be a mistake
@@AusPropertyMasteryWithPK But there has to be a point where the average person cant afford to invest due to prices. Negative gearing isnt for everyones budget. Units could be an entry point.
@@et8893 yes I think that point will come next 15 years sometime
@@AusPropertyMasteryWithPK That far away 🤔 Interesting. A video on this would be an entertaining informative video. ❤️🙏
yes you are spot on. Affordability is critical. When the gap between house prices and unit prices becomes big enough, combined with the rent returns being better, people have little choice but to buy to live, and investors will jump in. Look at Sydney. Units have done incredibly well for the past 30 years! But we have to accept that Perth and Brisbane are years behind Sydney, so it will take longer!
The reason for high cost of living is there is no competition. Qantas. Woolies, coles big 4 banks etc etc
5 years ago inflation was very low yet the same corporate structure existed
Look what you haven’t shown as a chart is the wage growth bs inflation rate. Wage growth over the last 10-15 years is less than inflation on average. Australians aren’t lazy and are generally seen as great employees in economies like UK or US. We def don’t like doing low paying labour intensive jobs like cleaning. And that might be called lazy leave that to you guys to consider but I do think Australians generally work hard, def work more than their 8 hours a day on average etc.
So if wage growth goes backwards be inflation that has to impact disposable income.
I think that explains it better. Parliament spends a lot of time talking about real growth in wages has been flat.
Also inflation. Is all products. If you isolate staples things like food, utilities and shelter costs these have been moving above inflation in other goods. Particularly on the east coast.
I think that’s the other thing to consider the west and east are very different economies.
For property it’s very simple if you want revenue returns invest in Perth. If you want capital returns and your 50% tax break on capital gains invest in Melbourne. You will sacrifice income for your gains. There. In Perth it’s the opposite. About every ten years Perth gets a big kick in growth then it sits there for another ten years. At the moment that growth is huge but prices were flat for the last ten years.
That Perth cycle you are directing is not true over 30-50 years of data.
Perth property prices are supported for two main reasons:
1. An unending supply of immigrants from India meaning solid demand for housing;
2. Those same immigrants do not have building trade skills meaning the new housing supply shortage will continue.
Solution: import useful immigrants instead of students
Students aren’t causing the housing shortage in worth. They don’t rent 4 bedder houses in the suburbs, they stick mostly to units closer to uni centers - cbd’s
@ausproperty …
You obviously have no clue, Murdoch and Curtin Universities are not in the cbd and I’m sure a few of the Edith Cowan “uni” campuses are also not in the cbd. I own rental properties in Bullcreek and Leeming and the proximity to Murdoch university means the occupancy rate is close to 100%
I believe it all starts at the parenting level, the kids of today will make up the economy of the future.
If you allow your kids to live on easy street all the lives, what kind of an adult do you expect them to be in the future, lazy, entitled???
I would nearly bet if you asked any successful hard working person, where did you get your drive to work hard from? a lot of the time the answer would be from their upbringings, most would of had some kind of hardship and challenging times in their younger years which helped forge them into the person they are today.
Well said dude. We have to get our shit together.
On a lighter note ; are you a fan of Dev Anand PK
Sorry not familiar
Whats a gen z ? A type of lizard found only in WA ???
People born from 1997-2012. Millenials are from 1980-1997.
nice info mate. loose the hat though
The content lacks depth and focus, touching on numerous topics like property, employment, immigration, GDP, society, and civilizations without delving into any in detail. The videos shared seem to offer only surface-level insights. What exactly are you trying to convey through them?
Ive been saying this for a while, most australians are racist towards immigrants and have a lot to say, but immigrants were already contributing so much more to the economy, most people who do nothing but live off centerlink are not immigrants. Immigrants are very hardworking most the time, they are so greatful to be here.
Thats bs. Compared to other countries Australia has welcomed immigrants. Also when i use to go into centrelink it was a long line of immigrants speaking other languages, i would see only a few Aussies.
I moved to Perth from NZ and i thought people there were lazy, wow Australians are far more lazier lol, is it just crazy, our medicare application is still in limbo 3 months since with no update what's going since we applied and kids cant go to school because of stupid vaccination requirement that they are taking too long to process the conversion to local records!!!! anyway patience is key here!
I love these "lazy Aussie" comments! Since according to the ABS half of the population had been born overseas or at least one parent had been born overseas. Doesn't say much for our new migrants either then!
@@user-sm5de6wg8v migrats does all the heavy lifting including most menial jobs.
PK, I watched a lot of your videos, but I feel you're a bit off the mark with your hypothesis.
Imo the drop in disposable income could also be correlated with a rise in interest rates over the same period. There is probably also a lagging indicator from covid where many smaller business experienced little or no cash flows, and are still recovering somewhat.
It would be interesting to break down the disposable income drop by salary bands to see if a particular cross-section of workers have been affected.
If there really is a generation of "lazy" workers, the gap will naturally be filled over the medium-term by more motivated workers, either from inter-state or overseas.
But I agree, immigration is an issue. We need more skilled workers, not those who come here to "study", but whose real goal is to become an uber driver and send money back to their home country.
The housing issue is acute I definitely agree. But I can only forsee a scenario where this puts even more pressure on rents, driving up prices, attracting more investors to the market and motivating existing renters to buy a home. All of this points to a sustained period of property growth. Particularly in WA. Interested to hear your thoughts.
Yes, but our interest rates haven’t risen as much as many other oecd countries.. it’s a hypothesis.. happy to discuss it but the rate argument doesn’t really hold..
It’s a lack of productivity cause by lack of innovation in a large part
@AusPropertyMasteryWithPK Lack of innovation as in a lack of diversification? Could be partly true in WA where I live. The state is slowing diversifying away from mining, but is still largely dependent on mineral exports. Do you know how the household disposable income is measured in the stats? Doesn't really seem noticeable here it has to be said, although other states might be feeling it more.
Migrated to this country 17 years ago, Australians don’t want to work the way they should its always no worries mate let the migrants do the sh.. jobs. We get judge why we work so hard well after all this years i can tell you that my daughter won’t have to worry about getting a house in 20 years when this will be unaffordable. Dont complain later keep enjoying your bbq’s and beers every weekend
Mate, 20 years ago I would have agreed with you. I love these "lazy Aussie" comments! But since according to the ABS half of the population had been born overseas or at least one parent had been born overseas. And 30% of our current population was born overseas! Doesn't say much for our new migrants either then!
So productivity dropped as net immigration increased but it's Australians who are lazy?
Well, I guess we all deserve to be homeless then!
The center of population (govt agency) has found than immigration boosts local population wages through economic activity.
Just going by this data, has immigration not occurred, we would be in a worse position from a income per capital pov
But immigration also has negative externalities as stated in video
Yeah the comments on here have pissed me off too. I'm an extremely hard working Australian. Very rich for people to come here and criticise us for not working hard. Unreal.
@@AusPropertyMasteryWithPK Im calling BS on that study. Current crop of immigrants are extremely lazy. We are not benefiting from this.
Spot on! According to the ABS half of the population had been born overseas or at least one parent had been born overseas. And 30% of our current population was born overseas! Migrants are, and always have been, the new Aussies, so doesn't say much for them then!
@@user-sm5de6wg8v Dont tell facts, PK will remove your comments.
Lazy people are homeless..
Now PK - caps are for controlling fringes, not pushing them down into your eyes. 😂❤
😂😂
ruclips.net/video/FxIug6k1mso/видео.html
From the life insurance. Excess deaths running at 12% higher.