He's cutting it awfully close. He has aged very rapidly in the past few years. I kinda feel sorry for the guy, watching all this amazing stuff come true but probably not living to see it. AI will drastically accelerate drug discovery in medicine, but it will still be five years at least before we start seeing the results. Five years isn't so long for most of us, but Ray will be 81. And that's the first drugs. For the full impact of AI on healthcare to reveal itself will take at perhaps a decade. Ray will be 86, which is exactly the life expectancy of a well-off white man who has already made it to 76. Damn. But who knows. We could get lucky with some breakthrough therapy. He plans to be frozen if he doesn't make it, but the science on that is still super sketch and the business side means that 1% of all the people who get frozen have a chance of the business surviving long enough for them to _stay_ frozen. Forget the mind-uploading tech. That's pure fantasy.
This universe/simulation, loves to k1ll the people who invent amazing things, just before they can see what big of an impact they made, for example the inventor of Coca Cola died before it went mainstream, or Van Gogh died before his paintings were taken seriously. This world is cruel.
@@taicunmusic Well hell, Mozart. People definitely appreciated his music when he was alive, but he died at 35 with an ungodly amount of stuff he never completed.
LOVE this segment! It could have been a WHOLE episode about it! It's REALLY WORTH sitting back and listening. DEFEINALLY challenges perceptions that humans SHOULD challenge so that we CAN get to that dystopian future we've all read about in books and watched in movies.
Its when A.I meets the Quantum computer that the real fireworks are going to fly. I find it interesting that Ray doesnt include the possibility of the advancement of Nuclear Fusion technology for our energy needs.
Thought the same about fusion. I think that’s one area where Ray could tweak his predictions. We’re already developing small fusion plants and it’ll likely become viable for large scale use in a decade or less
Well his name does kinda match the Kurzweil synths but what that synth pioneered was not analog we'd had for decades. He's invented a lot and been in and around pioneering work all his life. He just never has any ego to remind people about this. His work in speech synthesis and even in recent years working at Google. He's the guy behind the giant map of everything Google would use to relate everything in language to everything else. I could put cat wearing a red hat into Google search many years ago and get pictures that matched that. Without any of those pictures having the title of the image explaining it. All that early work was Ray's work on very early pre LLM A.I.
Their keyboard came out in 1983 by that time Roland was already releasing all their classics. Not to mention there were loads of records before then with the Moog.
@@ClayMann right. I think they meant to say speech synthesis in that part of the report, though pinning that down to one specific person is difficult. Either way, there’s no questioning Ray had a huge hand in pioneering that technology
@@pensivepenguin3000 aha i found where they got the quote wrong. Ray created the first omni-font, optical character-recognition software, the first print-to-speech reading machine for the blind, the first CCD flat-bed scanner, the first text-to-speech synthesizer, the first music synthesizer capable of recreating the sounds of a grand piano
Correction: ‘The Singularity’ doesn’t mean “when humans and machines merge”, it means the point where it becomes impossible for us to predict the future, since machine intelligence will vastly outperform that of us humans
By "YouSum Live" 00:00:00 Embracing the future of human-machine merger 00:00:30 Artificial intelligence enhancing human capabilities 00:01:48 Predictions on artificial general intelligence (AGI) 00:02:18 The Singularity: fusion of humans and machines 00:03:30 Advantages of increased intelligence and creativity 00:03:42 Exponential growth in technology solving energy needs 00:04:27 Thumb and brain: keys to human advancement 00:05:09 Longevity escape velocity: defying aging 00:05:51 Desire for eternal life and the concept of longevity 00:06:46 AI integration as an extension of human values By "YouSum Live"
Probably right on that one. The longevity experience will go to those privileged individuals who can afford it. Reminds me of Montgomery Burns (on the Simpsons cartoon show) where he ends up running around in the far future with his brain in a robot body. And as I recall Smithers shows up as a robot dog in the same scene to continue on as his personal assistant.
It will go so fast, that unless you are 80 right now, it will come to you too. That's assuming technological advancement will be real, and that "longevity escape velocity" will be real. I think both will occur, though i think his prediction is 1 decade too soon, meaning you will need to be 60 or below to make it.
I think about this constantly as everyone describes artificial intelligence solely based upon intellectual achievements yet true intelligence requires a heart focused in the correct direction. Technological advancements created without the benefit of all life and universal natural order is not advanced in my opinion. This is one subject I'm truly willing to hope my pessimism proves me otherwise as whenever humans tend to do whatever we want because we can, we get humbled time and time again.
Everyone. Literacy, life expectancy, people's revenue, access to technology has been increasing worldwide. While starvation, infant mortality, gender inequality, wealth inequality has been decreasing worldwide.
This is the part I worry about. In this race to AGI, I don’t really hear many people talking about the socioeconomic implications. When human labor no longer has a dollar value, what becomes of our economy in its existing format? Even right leaning people will need to Contend with the idea that we will need some kind of wealth redistribution when nearly all of the wealth is being generated by super intelligence, not people working for a wage
‘Longevity Escape Velocity’ refers to the point where scientific advances basically adds at least one healthy year to your life per year, which means that your body basically won’t get closer to its expiration date after that point
I want to believe in Ray’s version of the future but I’m skeptical. For starters, what most people think of as “AI” right now are large language models like ChatGPT and Gemini, neither of which exhibit any actual intelligence. They operate on complex statistical algorithms that predict Which word comes after another, meaning they can generate very coherent sounding text but they aren’t thinking. For his predictions about AGI to come to pass, we will definitely need to see some new AI paradigm, and that could take decades to develop and mature
@@MrFuncti0n they aren’t reasoning. They don’t understand the factuality of anything they consume or generate. In order to solve a problem using actual reasoning, you need to have the ability to discern wrong from right, correct from incorrect, and they don’t have that. They’ve been trained on likely thousands or more of examples of logic and reasoning challenges being solved so they can pretty impressively mimic or approximate Solving those types of problems, but they don’t actually have any understanding of what they’re doing. They really are just generating text
2:02 Again, people are confusing “being better at tasks than humans” with “being smarter than humans”. A can opener performs a task better than a human when prompted by hand movements. It sits there inertly when not being so prompted. A Swiss Army Knife is better than humans at even more tasks. That doesn’t mean that the knife is “smarter” than the can opener or smarter than humans. I admire Kurzweil and his ideas but like many people these days he has fallen into the deception that these systems are currently more than they are. AI has a lot of promise for the near future but thinking they will be just like us but better because they can answer some questions in more fields than we can is folly. This is how hype cycles turn into “AI winters” when funding dries up.
2:15 The term “Singularity” is where math breaks down and it proves that one’s theories are incomplete because our ability to make predictions fails. Even many in physics journalism confuse it with a physical object or state when it is actually just an inability to see forward.
Jup. In the context of AI and technological progress as a whole ,it refers to an exponential accalaration in development, leading to a point, in a Not to Distant future, where noone knows what technoligical possibilities lie beyond. Therefor: technological singularity.
His book The Age of Spiritual Machines was groundbreaking and so influential in how I and many others thought about how the next 50 years would pan out. He's really been one of the more successful futurists, although I'm sure some of the people out there were using his books as models to what direction to go with their ventures. Unfortunately, he doesn't seem like he's aged all that well, but maybe that's just his insistence on wearing a toupee? Some one needs to tell him that's actually a trend from the past, and that toupees went out of style like 30-40 years ago - if they were every in style, lol
He is an idiot in many areas, but he is no fool in his department. I'm pretty confident that Elon does not believe in his own predictions, but it's more of a publicity stunt. In that way, he should indeed not quote him, but who cares. It will occur, though likely not at the timeframe he has envisioned.
As much as I love Ray Kurzweil, he didn't invent the first synthesizer. 😅That said, I do have his Kurzweil K2000R and it's really unique and allows you to go really deep into the programming.
I'm all for the merging, always have been (since 1991 when I first heard of the idea) as long as we're not always 100% of the time, forced to be connected with everyone else. Yikes.. I like my alone time, and thinking for myself, etc. The only reason I'm worried is because most conversations tend to leave that part out - the question of whether we'll be part of the Borg, or allowed to be individuals.
Oh, I like this guy instantly with the point on AI being real intelligence, just with a different physical avatar. I think it’s actually better to think in terms of evolution since AI will follow a similar curve in progressive capability and advancement through trial & error type thing. An intelligence capable of traversing itself through data streams would by this simple capability, be generally unrestricted by an age limit cap.
Whoa, check out young Ray Kurzweil in this old game show clip! 🤯 He still sounds the same, even though he looks so much younger. 😲 Talk about consistency! 🔥
i dont think those 150 pills everyday are agreeing with his system, he looks pretty ill to me. Im really anti medication in all forms accept for hardcore painkillers if im seriously injured. But it IS amazing he designed the first synthisizer
Could we ask Ray a question? Ray, if you are reading this comment, could you please give this question a read and tell us what you think? Here's the question; what other ways of transportation do you think could be used to cross the vast emptiness of space other than spacecraft travelling at the speed of light? All things in nature can be found in the simplest cell. We see in a cell that all parts of the cell can be reached by other parts of the same cell. When something is needed to be delivered to one part of the cell, a monorail system appears and the material is sent to the needed region of the cell. After, the monorail disappears. Surely the universe is built on the same premise that there would be no part of it that could not be reached. Of course, and this is only speculation, but what I believe is that when a solar system is 50 million light years away, there has to be a way to get there sooner; otherwise, it makes no sense---or does it?
I was always a bit skeptical of Ray's predictions when I became aware of him after reading the singularity is near from my highschool library. I have to admit it's a little bit startling to see some of his more grandiose predictions coming to fruition. Seeing AI start to appear right around the time he predicted it would is a little unnerving.
a lot is wrong these news pieces for big networks. He isn't claiming we'll merge with machines in 2030 in the singularity. He's saying that by 2030 machines will be smart enough and fast enough that they can create their own code to improve themselves and rather than take years to do that like we do. It will happen in near real-time. That's the singularity. Us merging with machines happens way later, 2040's i believe by his prediction. And the synth he did invent and pioneer is the Kurzweil synth. Its kind of in his name but it was based on sampling technology way before that was a thing. I'm not a musician but you can google it and see. Moog can rest in peace, he's not getting his legacy taken from him.
@@_DRMR_ well if you want to pick that hard, no one invented THE synthesizer. Some pioneers took equipment used for measuring various things in labs. Science equipment and went at it making it musical. Wendy Carlos is one name that springs to mind but I don't exactly know who started abusing science equipment for music. So the invention was not synth, that was what other inventions were re-purposed for and then later people started to put that same equipment inside boxes more tuned for music. So who invented the first synth? no one. Who used electronic equipment to make music first? That's the question you'd ask. It certainly was not any company. It was a bunch of single musicians who had access to electronic equipment and heard test tones and their brain thought, i want to play with that! Kurzweil invented a technology for synths and put it into a keyboard. So he did actually invent a synthesizer. Name any classic analog synth and you can never claim it invented anything unless you want to count a new kind of filter as an invention. I don't think you can because they were all refinements of lab equipment that already existed. They were re-packing electronics already long figured out by scientists for purposes not connected to music at all. I can state that Yamaha invented FM synthesis in a keyboard. But there aren't many if any inventions I can think of in analog synthesis that could count as inventions. So bottom line, there is no THE synthesizer as an invention. There are first examples of synths as modular eqiupment and first examples of synths as standalone keyboards but even there it gets weird because organs, church equipment. They were doing synth like things long before any keyboards we think of today.
Unequivocally everyone wants to be healthy happy and high funftioning so in that sense values at least in that regard are shared by everyone, the question is how do we realise and then deploy with as many options as possible effective interventions that help us to maintain our youth.
They say this is scary but what's scarier in life but the end of it? So much so that we rarely talk about our sure imminent demise. And then when it happens it's all commotions as if nobody saw it coming. Fingers crossed Ray Kurzweil's wishful thinking becomes reality. Before I die of course haha
@@jmarriott5666 Well... no. I'm assuming that we can't escape the heat death of the universe, which is not a big assumption, if it is one at all. How do we do that, exactly? That is, if we even make it to LEV and don't die at 70-90 years old like everyone else is doing all around us, all the time, right now. I'm preparing for both the possibility of a centuries-long life, and an average-long life, because we don't know.
Smart enough to see the future, not smart enough to follow the health advice to make to the future. Looks like he hasn't stepped on a treadmill in decades. Bro needs Bryan Johnson.
I find the "Wind and Solar" prediction the hardest to believe. It would require a quantum shift in human greed and corruption. The oil industry has got so much power and influence in politics that there's no way they'll just let go of that hegemony overnight. I hope I'm wrong. 😢
AI is an epoch-making technology following agriculture, engines, and computers. We can achieve environmental (=technological), economic, social (including human), and political sustainability with it. AI enables it through enabling techs like new energy & materials, intelligent robots, advanced medicine & education, or IoT & big data processing. I hope for this general-purpose tech & policies to utilize it.
It's just a matter of priorities. Give an Iphone to a person in 1910. They would not know wtf to do with it, and maybe even burn the device. As we have become more dependent on technology, there is information that has been disregarded as generations have lived and gone. Would you know how to hunt a deer with a spear? Likely not. Does it matter? NO!
Kurzweil never stopped mourning, I get that, dude has heart. He probably is right, but we must recognize a loon when we see one. Just because we can, doesn't mean we should. I would rather live on an island with the woke than alone with a soul-less computer. We need eachother, because we are real. We might all suck but at least we are real. Memories with computers aren't real memories.
Imagine having the wisdom of thousands of years with brain elasticity of a 12 year old(meaning learning effortlessly) and the help of ai making you alive for as much as you want
"it's funny you know all these AI 'weights'. they're just basically numbers in a comma separated value file and that's our digital God, a CSV file." ~Elon Musk. 12/2023
The first electronic sound synthesizer, an instrument of awesome dimensions, was developed by the American acoustical engineers Harry Olson and Herbert Belar in 1955 at the Radio Corporation of America (RCA) laboratories at Princeton, New Jersey.
We seem to only really focus on half of the equation, the technology. The other half of this is the economic implications. When machines can replace most human labor, how will people earn a living? The only thing I can think of is that we will need to reDistribute the massive wealth these machines generate, but obviously there are plenty of people who will be opposed to anything resembling socialism. I imagine even those holdouts will change their tune when they see just how disruptive this is going to be
I doubt any of us agree on a definition for 'intelligence' but I'm guessing he means collected information and recall ability, I think there's a bit more to it than that, but hey, I ain't rich.
Ray refers to raw compute. How much can a machine think and at what speed. He's predicted the speed of computers accurately since he was a young man. So with that prediction alone. He says himself. He just thinks through how much compute do you need to reach a point you can have a computer in your pocket you can talk to or even further out, one that thinks as well as you do and then one that thinks better than you in all ways. What Ray didn't imagine way back then was that large language models would get so good by basically cheating. They don't use the speed of the computer to do what they do. They use that speed to train data that gives it so much more over weeks and months. But Ray is essentially saying about 2030 we'll have machines that have the same complexity we do in our brains to think. Even the fastest super computers are still a small fraction of what one single brain manages.
Intelligence is pretty well defined, it's the ability to acquire and apply knowledge and skills in order to solve a problem. What is merkier when it comes to definitions is things such as consciousness.
Ray pointed out that you might die of a disease that we haven't found a cure for yet. Why not make that top priority of AI?. Disease equality. Make every disease curable. You get it and AI will fix it and you move on. Let's point AI at the toughest diseases. ALS / Stg 1- 4 Cancer / Stroke repair / Dementia / Organ Replacement / MS / Cardiovascular Disease.
Imagine if they can make artificial kidney for people who need it to survive kidney failure. But also allow people that has no kidney problem to use it to extend their natural life expectancy. Just one very efficient artificial kidney.
@@businessenglishcoach3541They should design an "advanced kidney" that can perform more than a kidney such as detecting early health issue but we still have to wait until they have a basic practical working product.
What worries me is that if this process DOES become a reality, it may copy engrams (or whatever)... and this would be awesome for family, friends, keeping your work helping humanity... but you... you'd be the original... and you'd still die. In Star Trek, they described the transporter as a 'disintegrator/re-integrator'... essentially, every time they 'beamed' down, they were killed and an exact clone (complete with current engrams) arrived at the target destination. Not even the clone would know what had just happened.
AI is more effective and more real in its impression and reactivity than human mind or any other real, natural source. It is self automated and it controls more effectively interaction, communication and variation. It is more scientific,valid and reliable in its benefits and productions.
@@murrmurr765 my personal predictions and previews about AI. Human skill and activity was taken over and transformed by machines, Machines by computer and other technology and inventions, The human transformed from animal to natural to rational then that's so much and so much now that man is robust like. Along with the change in the human nature the life on earth also changed. It is now coming under the control of virtual and augmented reality and it is not merely a fictitious argument.
@@murrmurr765 if 'Wtf are you trying.....'stands for some anomalous thought about my post, It is part of contrite of mind. I apologize to you if my comment caused some inflammation in you. I have had shared my personal opinion only.
That sounds like it might hurt. There was a Twilight Zone episode a long time ago where every time this guy walked in a room with a book, all the information in the book would upload to his mind. In one scene, he accidentally walked into a whole library, and it nearly killed him.
The "merging" is AI having conscience. Being a "human" with moral and autonomous decisions. The thing is it's all math. But again, our brain is probably a "mathematical / quantic" computer. To achieve conscience a mathematical formulation has to be found that enables to translate the kaotic world we live in, in a logical world in a function o time. Time might be a human construction, but it's needed to have conscience. There are some guys trying to translate kaos into logical equations, loking for quantic gravity. I'm not shure it they are including time... we will get to AI conscience / singularity. .... and real human life and experience are in fiction literature. Besides the experience, you learn empathy. Hopefully, AI conscience, having read all the human books, will be very empathic.
Sadly, it's going to make life better for some and worse for others. Like always, better for those of privilege, worse for the world's most vulnerable.
this is true of all technology and always has been. The rich have the resources to pay for anything and not worry about cost. The great thing and something we seem to easily forget. People you would describe as poor today in the US or UK. They have more of everything from food to shelter than kings and queens from past centuries. Technology always gets cheaper and as it does, more people get access to it. The first digital watch was I think 5 billion dollars. That's how much it cost to make in a time when that much money was not even heard of. We hear about billionaires all the time today but anyway that watch today is worth less than a dollar. Actually just some amount of cents. Mobile phones were something only the richest could have in their cars but today who doesn't have a cellphone? homeless people have cellphones. We will all get access to the wildest tech and its happening faster. The lag time from rich mans toy to every mans item used to be decades, now its just a few to several years.
I hope Ray hits longevity escape velocity. He deserves to make it to the glorious future he predicted.
He's cutting it awfully close. He has aged very rapidly in the past few years. I kinda feel sorry for the guy, watching all this amazing stuff come true but probably not living to see it.
AI will drastically accelerate drug discovery in medicine, but it will still be five years at least before we start seeing the results. Five years isn't so long for most of us, but Ray will be 81. And that's the first drugs. For the full impact of AI on healthcare to reveal itself will take at perhaps a decade. Ray will be 86, which is exactly the life expectancy of a well-off white man who has already made it to 76. Damn. But who knows. We could get lucky with some breakthrough therapy.
He plans to be frozen if he doesn't make it, but the science on that is still super sketch and the business side means that 1% of all the people who get frozen have a chance of the business surviving long enough for them to _stay_ frozen.
Forget the mind-uploading tech. That's pure fantasy.
This universe/simulation, loves to k1ll the people who invent amazing things, just before they can see what big of an impact they made, for example the inventor of Coca Cola died before it went mainstream, or Van Gogh died before his paintings were taken seriously. This world is cruel.
J.S. Bach also died before people actually appreciated his music :(
@@taicunmusic Well hell, Mozart. People definitely appreciated his music when he was alive, but he died at 35 with an ungodly amount of stuff he never completed.
@@squamish4244 didn't the guy have a heart transplant? yeah not looking so good for him.
His old book, Singularity is near changed my life when I read it in 2014.
Yeah, it really made me think differently about the future, or what could be the future.
I read it my senior year of highschool, in 2007, and it did the same to me.
same here
Same, it gave me a lot of optimism about the future. His predictions are still on track.
I hope Ray Kurzweil lives to see all of his optimistic predictions fulfilled.
Ray stopped me from committing suicide his book got me out of depression.
That’s awesome, happy to have read this
and you could just take vitamins you lacked lol
That is just wholesome bro
@@szymonbaranowski8184 vitamins cure depression? wow youre a genius
Technology is the main thing im optimistic about
SO GREAT to see Ray out there!!
LOVE this segment! It could have been a WHOLE episode about it! It's REALLY WORTH sitting back and listening. DEFEINALLY challenges perceptions that humans SHOULD challenge so that we CAN get to that dystopian future we've all read about in books and watched in movies.
Its when A.I meets the Quantum computer that the real fireworks are going to fly. I find it interesting that Ray doesnt include the possibility of the advancement of Nuclear Fusion technology for our energy needs.
well that should tell you something about the future of fusion
@@davehasenford3985 Why, is he related to Nostradamus?
@@davehasenford3985No because he’s not an expert on fusion and neither are you.
Thought the same about fusion. I think that’s one area where Ray could tweak his predictions. We’re already developing small fusion plants and it’ll likely become viable for large scale use in a decade or less
@@mikezooperyou don’t need to be a fusion expert to read the available research and see where it’s headed
"invented the first Synthesizer" Bob Moog, Don Buchla, Harry Olson, and Herbert Belar might disagree here.
Well his name does kinda match the Kurzweil synths but what that synth pioneered was not analog we'd had for decades. He's invented a lot and been in and around pioneering work all his life. He just never has any ego to remind people about this. His work in speech synthesis and even in recent years working at Google. He's the guy behind the giant map of everything Google would use to relate everything in language to everything else. I could put cat wearing a red hat into Google search many years ago and get pictures that matched that. Without any of those pictures having the title of the image explaining it. All that early work was Ray's work on very early pre LLM A.I.
Their keyboard came out in 1983 by that time Roland was already releasing all their classics. Not to mention there were loads of records before then with the Moog.
Don't forget Leon Theremin ;)
@@ClayMann right. I think they meant to say speech synthesis in that part of the report, though pinning that down to one specific person is difficult. Either way, there’s no questioning Ray had a huge hand in pioneering that technology
@@pensivepenguin3000 aha i found where they got the quote wrong.
Ray created the first omni-font, optical character-recognition software, the first print-to-speech reading machine for the blind, the first CCD flat-bed scanner, the first text-to-speech synthesizer, the first music synthesizer capable of recreating the sounds of a grand piano
Correction: ‘The Singularity’ doesn’t mean “when humans and machines merge”, it means the point where it becomes impossible for us to predict the future, since machine intelligence will vastly outperform that of us humans
Ray is a Legend
By "YouSum Live"
00:00:00 Embracing the future of human-machine merger
00:00:30 Artificial intelligence enhancing human capabilities
00:01:48 Predictions on artificial general intelligence (AGI)
00:02:18 The Singularity: fusion of humans and machines
00:03:30 Advantages of increased intelligence and creativity
00:03:42 Exponential growth in technology solving energy needs
00:04:27 Thumb and brain: keys to human advancement
00:05:09 Longevity escape velocity: defying aging
00:05:51 Desire for eternal life and the concept of longevity
00:06:46 AI integration as an extension of human values
By "YouSum Live"
Greed is going to hit "escape velocity" before longevity does and that is looking less than an ideal world to live forever in.
Probably right on that one. The longevity experience will go to those privileged individuals who can afford it. Reminds me of Montgomery Burns (on the Simpsons cartoon show) where he ends up running around in the far future with his brain in a robot body. And as I recall Smithers shows up as a robot dog in the same scene to continue on as his personal assistant.
It will go so fast, that unless you are 80 right now, it will come to you too. That's assuming technological advancement will be real, and that "longevity escape velocity" will be real. I think both will occur, though i think his prediction is 1 decade too soon, meaning you will need to be 60 or below to make it.
When they say "things will be better" - the next question we ask should IMMEDIATELY be - "better for whom?"
I think about this constantly as everyone describes artificial intelligence solely based upon intellectual achievements yet true intelligence requires a heart focused in the correct direction. Technological advancements created without the benefit of all life and universal natural order is not advanced in my opinion. This is one subject I'm truly willing to hope my pessimism proves me otherwise as whenever humans tend to do whatever we want because we can, we get humbled time and time again.
Everyone.
Literacy, life expectancy, people's revenue, access to technology has been increasing worldwide.
While starvation, infant mortality, gender inequality, wealth inequality has been decreasing worldwide.
uh...everyone? not everything is a conspiracy out to get you. innovation has greatly improved the well-being of those alive today.
For those that have nothing to lose in the first place as technology advancement always does, lifting people from powerty
This is the part I worry about. In this race to AGI, I don’t really hear many people talking about the socioeconomic implications. When human labor no longer has a dollar value, what becomes of our economy in its existing format? Even right leaning people will need to Contend with the idea that we will need some kind of wealth redistribution when nearly all of the wealth is being generated by super intelligence, not people working for a wage
‘Longevity Escape Velocity’ refers to the point where scientific advances basically adds at least one healthy year to your life per year, which means that your body basically won’t get closer to its expiration date after that point
Ray’s killing us with this hair piece
It's distracting
I don't trust supposedly 'smart' guys who don't know how ridiculous they look in those.
@@4seeableTV he dont
I actually didn’t know until now, it looks good
That's his real hair. Some men that old retain it.
Thank you CBS for this and covering Ray / Longevity ❤
Kurzweil is highly interesting, I’ve been watching and reading him since 2003, if you want the cliff notes of his story watch “Transcendence Man”
❤❤❤❤❤❤ I love you kurzweil
This could really help me with my TikTok dance moves
Great to say this gent on mainstream media!
I want to believe in Ray’s version of the future but I’m skeptical. For starters, what most people think of as “AI” right now are large language models like ChatGPT and Gemini, neither of which exhibit any actual intelligence. They operate on complex statistical algorithms that predict Which word comes after another, meaning they can generate very coherent sounding text but they aren’t thinking. For his predictions about AGI to come to pass, we will definitely need to see some new AI paradigm, and that could take decades to develop and mature
Not decades, but I agree, a new architecture is needed for AGI to truly emerge. It will not be a LLM that becomes AGI.
They can do more than just predict the next word. They can also solve riddles and logical puzzles -- they are reasoning.
@@MrFuncti0n they aren’t reasoning. They don’t understand the factuality of anything they consume or generate. In order to solve a problem using actual reasoning, you need to have the ability to discern wrong from right, correct from incorrect, and they don’t have that. They’ve been trained on likely thousands or more of examples of logic and reasoning challenges being solved so they can pretty impressively mimic or approximate Solving those types of problems, but they don’t actually have any understanding of what they’re doing. They really are just generating text
@@pensivepenguin3000 Ask ChatGPT4 if it can reason.
Read his book before you question his ideas.
2:02 Again, people are confusing “being better at tasks than humans” with “being smarter than humans”. A can opener performs a task better than a human when prompted by hand movements. It sits there inertly when not being so prompted. A Swiss Army Knife is better than humans at even more tasks. That doesn’t mean that the knife is “smarter” than the can opener or smarter than humans.
I admire Kurzweil and his ideas but like many people these days he has fallen into the deception that these systems are currently more than they are.
AI has a lot of promise for the near future but thinking they will be just like us but better because they can answer some questions in more fields than we can is folly. This is how hype cycles turn into “AI winters” when funding dries up.
He is a Ray of light for humanity!
2:15 The term “Singularity” is where math breaks down and it proves that one’s theories are incomplete because our ability to make predictions fails. Even many in physics journalism confuse it with a physical object or state when it is actually just an inability to see forward.
Jup. In the context of AI and technological progress as a whole ,it refers to an exponential accalaration in development, leading to a point, in a Not to Distant future, where noone knows what technoligical possibilities lie beyond. Therefor: technological singularity.
it's absolutely happening. can't wait!
His book The Age of Spiritual Machines was groundbreaking and so influential in how I and many others thought about how the next 50 years would pan out. He's really been one of the more successful futurists, although I'm sure some of the people out there were using his books as models to what direction to go with their ventures. Unfortunately, he doesn't seem like he's aged all that well, but maybe that's just his insistence on wearing a toupee? Some one needs to tell him that's actually a trend from the past, and that toupees went out of style like 30-40 years ago - if they were every in style, lol
I didn't realize there were people this old that had an interest in AI
This man should not quote Elmo, he's wrong about most of his predictions.
Smart people like ray respect Elon.. 😉😂
@@frank254100 Actually-intelligent people recognize that Musk is a reprehensible dolt.
He is an idiot in many areas, but he is no fool in his department. I'm pretty confident that Elon does not believe in his own predictions, but it's more of a publicity stunt. In that way, he should indeed not quote him, but who cares. It will occur, though likely not at the timeframe he has envisioned.
I'm indifferent to him but a lot of his predictions have been hype and have been off by a couple of years and some haven't materialized at all.
I'm sold on Ray Kurzweil. If he is right, the human race will be closer to Utopia than any time in our history.
Poor guy looks like he is about to experience singularity sooner than he predicts
Ray is a legend..crazy how close he is to guessing AGI's arrival.
Considering how most of the hyped ML models have plateaued I don't think he'll even be around to see AGI.
@@_DRMR_ Have you seen Claude Sonnet 3.5 though..its pretty dang amazing. I cant even imagine when Opus 3.5 comes out.
Wait for 2029 to see if the prophecy will occur.
Elon says it's 2 years away
As much as I love Ray Kurzweil, he didn't invent the first synthesizer. 😅That said, I do have his Kurzweil K2000R and it's really unique and allows you to go really deep into the programming.
This guy is incredibly smart and impressive, I was aware of him. This is a great piece on him 🇺🇸👍🏼
not smart at all, he just makes generators of generic things like stupid AI does
They plan on replacing the human race with a new version and people are cheering it on???
Energy demand keeps growing so we can't meet that with one or 2 energy sorces, we'll have to keep diversifying
Israeli AI programs such as “Lavender” and “Where’s Daddy” have significantly increased Netanyahu’s war crimes in Gaza.
those are the real AI breakthoughs in 2024, not ChatGPT
Yet, we are still unable to produce realistic hairpieces.
😂
we are actually
That's his real hair and you're an AH.
technology is just the beginning to what Humanity can create and build so much to Learn from each other
I'm all for the merging, always have been (since 1991 when I first heard of the idea) as long as we're not always 100% of the time, forced to be connected with everyone else. Yikes.. I like my alone time, and thinking for myself, etc. The only reason I'm worried is because most conversations tend to leave that part out - the question of whether we'll be part of the Borg, or allowed to be individuals.
Oh, I like this guy instantly with the point on AI being real intelligence, just with a different physical avatar.
I think it’s actually better to think in terms of evolution since AI will follow a similar curve in progressive capability and advancement through trial & error type thing.
An intelligence capable of traversing itself through data streams would by this simple capability, be generally unrestricted by an age limit cap.
you like him for point where he is wrong, that's funny 🤣
Whoa, check out young Ray Kurzweil in this old game show clip! 🤯 He still sounds the same, even though he looks so much younger. 😲 Talk about consistency! 🔥
They said, 'Things will be better' right before Skynet came online...
i dont think those 150 pills everyday are agreeing with his system, he looks pretty ill to me. Im really anti medication in all forms accept for hardcore painkillers if im seriously injured. But it IS amazing he designed the first synthisizer
he helped break music...
Living for a long time is perhaps great for scientists, certainly not for politicians.
scientists often get insane in old age he may be another example
It looks like the bowl of supplements that he used to take each day hasn't helped him much.
Could we ask Ray a question? Ray, if you are reading this comment, could you please give this question a read and tell us what you think? Here's the question; what other ways of transportation do you think could be used to cross the vast emptiness of space other than spacecraft travelling at the speed of light? All things in nature can be found in the simplest cell. We see in a cell that all parts of the cell can be reached by other parts of the same cell. When something is needed to be delivered to one part of the cell, a monorail system appears and the material is sent to the needed region of the cell. After, the monorail disappears. Surely the universe is built on the same premise that there would be no part of it that could not be reached. Of course, and this is only speculation, but what I believe is that when a solar system is 50 million light years away, there has to be a way to get there sooner; otherwise, it makes no sense---or does it?
How were the transitions between scenes created in this video?
Can’t wait! Speed it up!
I was always a bit skeptical of Ray's predictions when I became aware of him after reading the singularity is near from my highschool library. I have to admit it's a little bit startling to see some of his more grandiose predictions coming to fruition. Seeing AI start to appear right around the time he predicted it would is a little unnerving.
He did NOT invent the first synthesizer. Check your facts!
a lot is wrong these news pieces for big networks. He isn't claiming we'll merge with machines in 2030 in the singularity. He's saying that by 2030 machines will be smart enough and fast enough that they can create their own code to improve themselves and rather than take years to do that like we do. It will happen in near real-time. That's the singularity. Us merging with machines happens way later, 2040's i believe by his prediction. And the synth he did invent and pioneer is the Kurzweil synth. Its kind of in his name but it was based on sampling technology way before that was a thing. I'm not a musician but you can google it and see. Moog can rest in peace, he's not getting his legacy taken from him.
@@ClayMann He invented "a" synthesizer, not "the" synthesizer.
@@_DRMR_ well if you want to pick that hard, no one invented THE synthesizer. Some pioneers took equipment used for measuring various things in labs. Science equipment and went at it making it musical. Wendy Carlos is one name that springs to mind but I don't exactly know who started abusing science equipment for music. So the invention was not synth, that was what other inventions were re-purposed for and then later people started to put that same equipment inside boxes more tuned for music. So who invented the first synth? no one. Who used electronic equipment to make music first? That's the question you'd ask. It certainly was not any company. It was a bunch of single musicians who had access to electronic equipment and heard test tones and their brain thought, i want to play with that!
Kurzweil invented a technology for synths and put it into a keyboard. So he did actually invent a synthesizer. Name any classic analog synth and you can never claim it invented anything unless you want to count a new kind of filter as an invention. I don't think you can because they were all refinements of lab equipment that already existed. They were re-packing electronics already long figured out by scientists for purposes not connected to music at all. I can state that Yamaha invented FM synthesis in a keyboard. But there aren't many if any inventions I can think of in analog synthesis that could count as inventions. So bottom line, there is no THE synthesizer as an invention. There are first examples of synths as modular eqiupment and first examples of synths as standalone keyboards but even there it gets weird because organs, church equipment. They were doing synth like things long before any keyboards we think of today.
AGI by september
AGI next week.
A rare moment when TV has an intelligent story. More Please
Unequivocally everyone wants to be healthy happy and high funftioning so in that sense values at least in that regard are shared by everyone, the question is how do we realise and then deploy with as many options as possible effective interventions that help us to maintain our youth.
it seems not 99% of people of they shop regular toxic things in regular shops with 99% things being toxic there
The coolest wig i've seen in a while for sure 🤘
They say this is scary but what's scarier in life but the end of it? So much so that we rarely talk about our sure imminent demise. And then when it happens it's all commotions as if nobody saw it coming. Fingers crossed Ray Kurzweil's wishful thinking becomes reality. Before I die of course haha
I am hopeful for a world when intelligence it's finally dominant, this current stupidity is terrible.
We need a movie about him...
5:53
this man uses the word “spiritual” in the same sentence as questioning why death should exist, astounding!
The two aren't mutually exclusive.
@@jmarriott5666 Well no, but there is no escaping death, unless we somehow escape the heat death of the universe.
@@squamish4244 You're assuming a lot with your wetware 😜
@@jmarriott5666 Well... no. I'm assuming that we can't escape the heat death of the universe, which is not a big assumption, if it is one at all. How do we do that, exactly?
That is, if we even make it to LEV and don't die at 70-90 years old like everyone else is doing all around us, all the time, right now. I'm preparing for both the possibility of a centuries-long life, and an average-long life, because we don't know.
It is better because there are no emotions, that is the weakness of humans.
What will be the third book in the trilogy, "The Singularity is nearerest"?
Smart enough to see the future, not smart enough to follow the health advice to make to the future. Looks like he hasn't stepped on a treadmill in decades. Bro needs Bryan Johnson.
I find the "Wind and Solar" prediction the hardest to believe.
It would require a quantum shift in human greed and corruption. The oil industry has got so much power and influence in politics that there's no way they'll just let go of that hegemony overnight.
I hope I'm wrong. 😢
AI is an epoch-making technology following agriculture, engines, and computers. We can achieve
environmental (=technological), economic, social (including human), and political sustainability with it.
AI enables it through enabling techs like new energy & materials, intelligent robots, advanced medicine
& education, or IoT & big data processing. I hope for this general-purpose tech & policies to utilize it.
And unprecedented massive long term or permanent unemployment. And spare me with the "UBI" bull.
@@aisle_of_view Then get ready to have large savings ready.
Gives a whole new meaning to a life sentence 😅
"Singularity" is a word everyone knows now.
Ai please cure baldness
just don't use any plastic or chemicals lol
amen
I don't think we are smarter now.
Imagine a world without electricity. We would be like babies.
That's exactly why we're smarter now. Or at least those of us who choose the resources at our disposal.
Imagine people from a time before electricity trying to figure out how to living in our society. They wouldn't know what the hell is going on.
It's just a matter of priorities. Give an Iphone to a person in 1910. They would not know wtf to do with it, and maybe even burn the device. As we have become more dependent on technology, there is information that has been disregarded as generations have lived and gone. Would you know how to hunt a deer with a spear? Likely not. Does it matter? NO!
look at politics and think again
@@szymonbaranowski8184 Politics was no better back in the day.
Kurzweil never stopped mourning, I get that, dude has heart. He probably is right, but we must recognize a loon when we see one. Just because we can, doesn't mean we should. I would rather live on an island with the woke than alone with a soul-less computer. We need eachother, because we are real. We might all suck but at least we are real. Memories with computers aren't real memories.
exactly! one sane voice here
Imagine having the wisdom of thousands of years with brain elasticity of a 12 year old(meaning learning effortlessly) and the help of ai making you alive for as much as you want
"it's funny you know all these AI 'weights'. they're just basically numbers in a comma separated value file and that's our digital God, a CSV file." ~Elon Musk. 12/2023
The first electronic sound synthesizer, an instrument of awesome dimensions, was developed by the American acoustical engineers Harry Olson and Herbert Belar in 1955 at the Radio Corporation of America (RCA) laboratories at Princeton, New Jersey.
Kurzweils suspenders gets all the panties dropping
Love the Star Trek reference 🫶
He should really try to read some of the Indian sages…
Eating steak is the only singularity that will ever exist
I respect Ray🤖🖖🤖
We seem to only really focus on half of the equation, the technology. The other half of this is the economic implications. When machines can replace most human labor, how will people earn a living? The only thing I can think of is that we will need to reDistribute the massive wealth these machines generate, but obviously there are plenty of people who will be opposed to anything resembling socialism. I imagine even those holdouts will change their tune when they see just how disruptive this is going to be
I doubt any of us agree on a definition for 'intelligence' but I'm guessing he means collected information and recall ability, I think there's a bit more to it than that, but hey, I ain't rich.
Ray refers to raw compute. How much can a machine think and at what speed. He's predicted the speed of computers accurately since he was a young man. So with that prediction alone. He says himself. He just thinks through how much compute do you need to reach a point you can have a computer in your pocket you can talk to or even further out, one that thinks as well as you do and then one that thinks better than you in all ways. What Ray didn't imagine way back then was that large language models would get so good by basically cheating. They don't use the speed of the computer to do what they do. They use that speed to train data that gives it so much more over weeks and months. But Ray is essentially saying about 2030 we'll have machines that have the same complexity we do in our brains to think. Even the fastest super computers are still a small fraction of what one single brain manages.
Intelligence is pretty well defined, it's the ability to acquire and apply knowledge and skills in order to solve a problem.
What is merkier when it comes to definitions is things such as consciousness.
#JobsAreForRobots
I plan on living 1000 years people always think I'm kidding I'm dead serious 😐
Ray pointed out that you might die of a disease that we haven't found a cure for yet. Why not make that top priority of AI?. Disease equality. Make every disease curable. You get it and AI will fix it and you move on. Let's point AI at the toughest diseases. ALS / Stg 1- 4 Cancer / Stroke repair / Dementia / Organ Replacement / MS / Cardiovascular Disease.
Ray Kurzweil is correct
he has a 20005 best seller? in the year twenty thousand and five!!!??? we're only in 2024.
I heard buy silver because of solar panels.
Imagine if they can make artificial kidney for people who need it to survive kidney failure. But also allow people that has no kidney problem to use it to extend their natural life expectancy. Just one very efficient artificial kidney.
Its already in the works, its called 3D Bio-printing
@@businessenglishcoach3541They should design an "advanced kidney" that can perform more than a kidney such as detecting early health issue but we still have to wait until they have a basic practical working product.
What worries me is that if this process DOES become a reality, it may copy engrams (or whatever)... and this would be awesome for family, friends, keeping your work helping humanity... but you... you'd be the original... and you'd still die. In Star Trek, they described the transporter as a 'disintegrator/re-integrator'... essentially, every time they 'beamed' down, they were killed and an exact clone (complete with current engrams) arrived at the target destination. Not even the clone would know what had just happened.
@le5.24 Small comfort for the one who pops his clogs.
K is great and I get, that you wanna praise him, but don't he did not invent the synthesizer :=)
You'll probably only benefit from agi if you're already rich before mass unemployability.
AI is more effective and more real in its impression and reactivity than human mind or any other real, natural source.
It is self automated and it controls more effectively interaction, communication and variation. It is more scientific,valid and reliable in its benefits and productions.
Wtf are you trying to say?
@@murrmurr765 my personal predictions and previews about AI.
Human skill and activity was taken over and transformed by machines,
Machines by computer and other technology and inventions,
The human transformed from animal to natural to rational then that's so much and so much now that man is robust like.
Along with the change in the human nature the life on earth also changed. It is now coming under the control of virtual and augmented reality and it is not merely a fictitious argument.
@@murrmurr765 if 'Wtf are you trying.....'stands for some anomalous thought about my post,
It is part of contrite of mind.
I apologize to you if my comment caused some inflammation in you.
I have had shared my personal opinion only.
I want a cbs news hoodie.
they should make an AI that runs as a presidential candidate.
It would be amazing to put all the world’s knowledge in your mind, all at once with a computer.
That sounds like it might hurt. There was a Twilight Zone episode a long time ago where every time this guy walked in a room with a book, all the information in the book would upload to his mind. In one scene, he accidentally walked into a whole library, and it nearly killed him.
Saw the thumbnail and thought: What the hell happened to Kevin Nealon?
Its not really A.I. , it's just a search engine with another skin. Guy is hyping it up to boost his book sales.
Solarpunk, solarpunk! 🌄💚
Cool 😎
He gets ıt wrong at 3:14 in my opinion.
The "merging" is AI having conscience. Being a "human" with moral and autonomous decisions.
The thing is it's all math. But again, our brain is probably a "mathematical / quantic" computer.
To achieve conscience a mathematical formulation has to be found that enables to translate the kaotic world we live in, in a logical world in a function o time. Time might be a human construction, but it's needed to have conscience.
There are some guys trying to translate kaos into logical equations, loking for quantic gravity. I'm not shure it they are including time...
we will get to AI conscience / singularity.
.... and real human life and experience are in fiction literature.
Besides the experience, you learn empathy. Hopefully, AI conscience, having read all the human books, will be very empathic.
Or the other alternative that is just as likely is we end up with skynet!
Sadly, it's going to make life better for some and worse for others. Like always, better for those of privilege, worse for the world's most vulnerable.
this is true of all technology and always has been. The rich have the resources to pay for anything and not worry about cost. The great thing and something we seem to easily forget. People you would describe as poor today in the US or UK. They have more of everything from food to shelter than kings and queens from past centuries. Technology always gets cheaper and as it does, more people get access to it. The first digital watch was I think 5 billion dollars. That's how much it cost to make in a time when that much money was not even heard of. We hear about billionaires all the time today but anyway that watch today is worth less than a dollar. Actually just some amount of cents. Mobile phones were something only the richest could have in their cars but today who doesn't have a cellphone? homeless people have cellphones. We will all get access to the wildest tech and its happening faster. The lag time from rich mans toy to every mans item used to be decades, now its just a few to several years.
@@ClayMann IMO, the technological gap will be far wider than anything we have seen before.