The answer is YES, hot inflation will not only halt rate cuts, it will force the BoC to hike again. The only way to bring inflation down is to raise interest rates. I have lived through 19% interest rates from the BoC. 5% is a walk in the park. Don't know why this is a 10 minute video? This is covered in Finance 101 page 1 chapter 1. Very very simple stuff. It would be better to spend 10 minutes explaining how the CPI calculation changed in a way that does not accurately report inflation. That video would be worth my 10 min!
Thank you for your viewership and for your comment. I really appreciate your feedback. Yes, there is a high possibility that the Bank of Canada will not cut rates in July, as the data could lead the Bank to pause. Given that you've experienced 19% interest rates and understand the dynamics between the economy back in the late '70s and early '80s and the economy today, you should be aware that the amount of debt Canadians hold now is much greater than it was several decades ago. This means that the leverage or impact of interest rates is compounded-interest rates at 19% back then and 5% today exert similar pressure on the economy due to the current debt levels. I agree that inflation today is complex and many Canadians feel that the CPI headline inflation and reality are significantly decoupled. Inflation disproportionately impacts different segments of the Canadian economy. We can all agree that Statistics Canada does a poor job of accurately depicting true inflation measures in Canada. However, these are the cards we are dealt, and these are the cards we must play.
So what say you if and when the CPI goes to 4%. People will say that’s not possible but we had 8% just 2 years ago. What is in the playbook in the mortgage industry for a rate hike? Not possible? I think it most certainly possible. What about mortgage renewals with rising rates. How does that look?
Well, what if it does not? The days of 8% inflation are gone (for now). The BoC fixed that by hiking the policy rate to 5%. The economy is choking, and the BoC has to start giving the Heimlich maneuver. There is no playbook. If the economy is running in excess demand and unemployment and GDP spike, then how can we not cut or pause? Unlike the US, where the economy is strong - they can hold - consumer spending is still faring well. But we are not in a good economy, and the people advocating for hikes are either mortgage-free, retired, making hundreds of thousands of dollars, or maybe renting and hoping to buy a home when they think housing will crash. Right now, housing is taking a bath. That is not the point of rate cuts. It is to avoid a recession and prevent the need to drop rates to the floor to bring us out of a tailspin.
@@intouchmortgages the data to this point wither you like it or not does not signal recession. A slow down maybe but not a recession. All the housing industry is in a recession that’s no doubt but the housing industry is not the economy. I am not advocating for rate hikes or cuts what I am saying is that there is not a 0% chance of the data changing to warrant in the future possible rate hikes. We have landed millions of new Canadians that I would argue would be a turn key adult baby boom. These adults will require many products and services into the future much like the baby boomers did in the 70s and 80s inflation cycle. Add to that re shoring and government profligate spending. Under these scenarios o only see inflation rising well past the 2% target. I use 4% as a benchmark because I believe that 4% inflation under these criteria is completely and almost assuredly possible. Whether we like it or not mortgage rates will not be in the 3-4-5% range if inflation is at 4%. I know the debt is crazy and people are hurting but inflation doesn’t care about peoples debt problems. I think we have to give real credence to inflation going up from here. How that plays out in a country like Canada is anyone’s guess. I am guessing for a ton of people it won’t be good.
@@jeffotoole4509 Thank you so much for your dialogue. I really appreciate having these conversations and getting to know our viewers. I do agree that there are different signals for a recession, but the reality in Canada is that housing, for some reason, is a significant component of GDP. We don't have the manufacturing and onshoring that you're mentioning here in Canada, making our situation quite different from the U.S. We lack other major components that could help increase our GDP excluding housing. Housing and construction make up an estimated 9% of GDP, but I would argue it's probably closer to 25% when considering all the knock-on effects. The government is overspending, and there are major concerns with how inflation is measured here in Canada. As I’ve mentioned on numerous occasions, Canada could be doing a better job reporting the true figures. Regarding interest rates and lived experience, although maybe not as extensive as yours, we will likely see interest rates drop over the next little while. Canada cannot sustain interest rates at these levels and support a healthy and balanced economy-it just doesn't work. Something will have to give. As for mortgage renewals, the Bank of Canada is aware that a significant number of mortgages are about to renew soon. We also need to remember that interest rates in 2020-2021 were the lowest on record in Canada, so any nominal movement upwards will put undue pressure on many households. This does not necessarily mean we will see a flood of properties hitting the market, but it does signal that more Canadians will reallocate their money to servicing their mortgage and debt rather than spending in the economy. Balancing a delicate economy, potentially on the verge of avoiding a recession, with employment and interest rates is the true question at hand.
@@intouchmortgages I guess we will see what happens. If they get inflation under 2% for a sustained amount of time rates can probably come down some. The inflation rate will determine the story. I really see no cane of the BOC sacrificing the dollar and its credibility to save people renewing mortgages. My personal bias is that inflation will lean to the upside. This will handcuff the BOC and will ultimately force people to renew at much larger rates. The bill has to be paid. If we see a big recession globally then inflation has the opportunity to maybe come down. Let’s not forget that Paul Volker over saw two recessions in the middle of a hiking and inflation up cycle. Inflation going higher while in a recession is not impossible. We will see.
the experts dont want to hurt your feelings with the bad economy and the cure. tax cuts and reduced spending. stimulate the economy and get government out of job creation and into creating an environment of low tax and regulation so private enterprise can flourish. then focus on fiscal responsibility .our socialist love of free government goodies has to end......nothing is free
Thank you so much for your comment. My feelings don't get hurt by economists and analysts because, at the end of the day, even a broken clock is right twice a day. However, I do agree that tax cut measures in this economy will help bring in more private sector industries, investment, and opportunities. As Kevin O'Leary often points out, we definitely have bad leadership in this country, which is not anywhere close to the U.S. Without trying to get political, you're right-nothing is free. Unfortunately, people see the word "free" and it automatically makes them tingle, but most people will understand that it has to come from somewhere, and that money is coming from taxpayers. I would love to continue the conversation about our current administration, but I feel that RUclips won't like where that conversation would be headed.
Great video, thanks!
Thanks for your support
Great video 👌
Thank you !
The answer is YES, hot inflation will not only halt rate cuts, it will force the BoC to hike again. The only way to bring inflation down is to raise interest rates. I have lived through 19% interest rates from the BoC. 5% is a walk in the park. Don't know why this is a 10 minute video? This is covered in Finance 101 page 1 chapter 1. Very very simple stuff. It would be better to spend 10 minutes explaining how the CPI calculation changed in a way that does not accurately report inflation. That video would be worth my 10 min!
Thank you for your viewership and for your comment. I really appreciate your feedback. Yes, there is a high possibility that the Bank of Canada will not cut rates in July, as the data could lead the Bank to pause. Given that you've experienced 19% interest rates and understand the dynamics between the economy back in the late '70s and early '80s and the economy today, you should be aware that the amount of debt Canadians hold now is much greater than it was several decades ago. This means that the leverage or impact of interest rates is compounded-interest rates at 19% back then and 5% today exert similar pressure on the economy due to the current debt levels.
I agree that inflation today is complex and many Canadians feel that the CPI headline inflation and reality are significantly decoupled. Inflation disproportionately impacts different segments of the Canadian economy. We can all agree that Statistics Canada does a poor job of accurately depicting true inflation measures in Canada. However, these are the cards we are dealt, and these are the cards we must play.
So what say you if and when the CPI goes to 4%. People will say that’s not possible but we had 8% just 2 years ago. What is in the playbook in the mortgage industry for a rate hike? Not possible? I think it most certainly possible. What about mortgage renewals with rising rates. How does that look?
Well, what if it does not? The days of 8% inflation are gone (for now). The BoC fixed that by hiking the policy rate to 5%. The economy is choking, and the BoC has to start giving the Heimlich maneuver. There is no playbook. If the economy is running in excess demand and unemployment and GDP spike, then how can we not cut or pause? Unlike the US, where the economy is strong - they can hold - consumer spending is still faring well. But we are not in a good economy, and the people advocating for hikes are either mortgage-free, retired, making hundreds of thousands of dollars, or maybe renting and hoping to buy a home when they think housing will crash.
Right now, housing is taking a bath. That is not the point of rate cuts. It is to avoid a recession and prevent the need to drop rates to the floor to bring us out of a tailspin.
@@intouchmortgages the data to this point wither you like it or not does not signal recession. A slow down maybe but not a recession. All the housing industry is in a recession that’s no doubt but the housing industry is not the economy. I am not advocating for rate hikes or cuts what I am saying is that there is not a 0% chance of the data changing to warrant in the future possible rate hikes. We have landed millions of new Canadians that I would argue would be a turn key adult baby boom. These adults will require many products and services into the future much like the baby boomers did in the 70s and 80s inflation cycle. Add to that re shoring and government profligate spending. Under these scenarios o only see inflation rising well past the 2% target. I use 4% as a benchmark because I believe that 4% inflation under these criteria is completely and almost assuredly possible. Whether we like it or not mortgage rates will not be in the 3-4-5% range if inflation is at 4%.
I know the debt is crazy and people are hurting but inflation doesn’t care about peoples debt problems. I think we have to give real credence to inflation going up from here. How that plays out in a country like Canada is anyone’s guess. I am guessing for a ton of people it won’t be good.
@@jeffotoole4509 Thank you so much for your dialogue. I really appreciate having these conversations and getting to know our viewers. I do agree that there are different signals for a recession, but the reality in Canada is that housing, for some reason, is a significant component of GDP. We don't have the manufacturing and onshoring that you're mentioning here in Canada, making our situation quite different from the U.S. We lack other major components that could help increase our GDP excluding housing. Housing and construction make up an estimated 9% of GDP, but I would argue it's probably closer to 25% when considering all the knock-on effects.
The government is overspending, and there are major concerns with how inflation is measured here in Canada. As I’ve mentioned on numerous occasions, Canada could be doing a better job reporting the true figures. Regarding interest rates and lived experience, although maybe not as extensive as yours, we will likely see interest rates drop over the next little while. Canada cannot sustain interest rates at these levels and support a healthy and balanced economy-it just doesn't work. Something will have to give.
As for mortgage renewals, the Bank of Canada is aware that a significant number of mortgages are about to renew soon. We also need to remember that interest rates in 2020-2021 were the lowest on record in Canada, so any nominal movement upwards will put undue pressure on many households. This does not necessarily mean we will see a flood of properties hitting the market, but it does signal that more Canadians will reallocate their money to servicing their mortgage and debt rather than spending in the economy. Balancing a delicate economy, potentially on the verge of avoiding a recession, with employment and interest rates is the true question at hand.
@@intouchmortgages I guess we will see what happens. If they get inflation under 2% for a sustained amount of time rates can probably come down some. The inflation rate will determine the story. I really see no cane of the BOC sacrificing the dollar and its credibility to save people renewing mortgages. My personal bias is that inflation will lean to the upside. This will handcuff the BOC and will ultimately force people to renew at much larger rates. The bill has to be paid. If we see a big recession globally then inflation has the opportunity to maybe come down. Let’s not forget that Paul Volker over saw two recessions in the middle of a hiking and inflation up cycle. Inflation going higher while in a recession is not impossible. We will see.
Bank of Canada doesn’t have a clue
the experts dont want to hurt your feelings with the bad economy and the cure. tax cuts and reduced spending. stimulate the economy and get government out of job creation and into creating an environment of low tax and regulation so private enterprise can flourish. then focus on fiscal responsibility .our socialist love of free government goodies has to end......nothing is free
Thank you so much for your comment. My feelings don't get hurt by economists and analysts because, at the end of the day, even a broken clock is right twice a day. However, I do agree that tax cut measures in this economy will help bring in more private sector industries, investment, and opportunities. As Kevin O'Leary often points out, we definitely have bad leadership in this country, which is not anywhere close to the U.S. Without trying to get political, you're right-nothing is free. Unfortunately, people see the word "free" and it automatically makes them tingle, but most people will understand that it has to come from somewhere, and that money is coming from taxpayers. I would love to continue the conversation about our current administration, but I feel that RUclips won't like where that conversation would be headed.
@@intouchmortgages a broken clock doesnt waste my hard earned money. under this illegal coalition i cant even buy a new clock