China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Blind Squirrel Macro's Rupert Mitchell
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- Опубликовано: 9 июн 2024
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Rupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro joins Forward Guidance for the first time to share his learnings from an extensive career as an investment banker moving Chinese IPOs to a corporate financier for an electric vehicle producer. The rodent shares his views on tires, refiners, and gold miners, and makes the case that cheaply produced Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) will unleash a “bloodbath” on the middle-market global EV market. Recorded on April 2, 2024.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:47 The Squirrel's Background As An Investment Banker
03:14 The Chinese IPO Boom Of 2000s
13:51 The Squirrel's Current View On Chinese Economy and Stock Market
20:00 Is The Chinese Real Estate Crisis Just Getting Started?
23:55 VanEck Ad
24:57 The Squirrel's Experience In The Electric Vehicle (EV) Business
29:49 China Will Unleash "Bloodbath" On Global EV Auto Market
36:07 Toyota Is Having The Last Laugh
40:52 For Auto Stocks, The Squirrel Prefers Price To Sales
44:56 Many EV Companies That Went Public In 2020 & 2021 Were Bubbles And Frauds
50:18 Tesla
53:51 Old School Auto Manufacturers (Ford, GM, Volkswagen, etc.)
54:40 Squirrel's Bull Thesis On Tire Producers
01:02:55 The Offshore Oil Thesis
01:12:50 Macro
01:18:26 Squirrel's Inflationista Thesis
01:22:12 Options
01:31:40 Gold and Gold Miners
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. 
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This was great! Rupert Mitchell was so detailed but also easy to listen to. I hope he comes on again in the future.
All consumers should welcome such a thing.
Deflation is actually terrible for everyone
@@happyhappynuts Inflation is essentially a tax. Then deflation is tax relief for ordinary people.
@@happyhappynutsonly when you have a debt based economy
How are decreasing prices of everything we need bad for everyone?
After the introduction of China cars in Australia, the prices of both EV and ICE vehicle have dropped, and consumers are the beneficiaries of competition (including those who have not bought China cars).
I have been listening to the squirrel's podcast, but great to get over an hour with him. Might have to buy into his substack after this. Thanks Squirrel and Jack.
Excellent guest - both amusing & informative
Refreshing to hear someone call Tesla a meme stock 😂
Anyone who says otherwise is vested, either owning the stock or a vehicle, or both.
and BYD is not?
Meme = the most shorted manipulated stocks in the market that don’t go bankrupt but become profitable & squeeze upwards when the casino is forced to pay back the billions of shares they borrowed to fund the forced bankruptcy
It is, just came back from China. Tesla is cheapest in China than anywhere else in the world, can't see how they can compete. Husband went to all EV showrooms, literally had to hold him back from buying Huawei.
😂😂😂
Everyone who says this has been rekt by Tesla
Rupert is great! I really enjoyed this!!
Great Interview and perspective. Thank You Both.
Rupert is extremely articulate. The tire deep value idea sounds compelling
I like the honest style about his experience, whether winning or losing. This is real.
Great interview, the Squirrel knows his stuff
Excellent interview!
Very enlightening :)
Fascinating!
Unfortunately the U.S government has a floor on car prices ar 20k. And they will not allow Chinese made EVs to be sold to Americans even if there is a cost benefit to U.S customers. 😂
Agreed at the same time I have to question the quality of these EVs and the future of EVs in general. Also, in China these cars will have to be charged by coal generated electricity. Matter of fact most of the world does not have a lot of surplus electricity.
The notion EVs are good for the planet is a key factor for many of those deciding to buy an electric car. The article below argues they are, mostly not, in fact, they have the potential to cause more harm than good. brucewilds.blogspot.com/2021/01/are-evs-good-for-environment-mostly-not.html
Great interview 👍
Thank you
Your best guest ever. Period. Thank you 🙏🏼
Interesting discussion.
That was fantastic
Great guest and great discussion, Jack
Guest has remarkable booming voice!
Not really
Yes really
Imagine being a democrat and being offended by the word bloodbath - the left of 2024, ladies & gents!
Especially when it was about the auto industry. Don't blame them, they just believe the wrong sources who are constantly lying to them.
Liberal/left here. I don't give AF about words or any of your made up narratives. FYI
@@mattb782 Are you even aware of what we're talking about? it was the media's made up (lying) narrative about what he said, not ours.
👍Really interesting and unique take on gold miners. Yep, I kind of agree -- Wall Street won't put their money into 'dirty mines' or 'relic rocks' and central banks buy physical gold not mining stocks.👍
51:02 Tesla is not a car company, but an AI and robotics company that also builds cars.
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this very informative content cheers Frank 😊
Thanks having Hugh Grant on.
Hugh is no match for Rupert’s intelligence
You talking about that English actor who got caught with a very unattractive sex worker in parking lot?
You didn’t get yellens memo
I understand to a point of what he is saying but many of the EV vehicle business in china are going under due to the fact their vehicles are catching on fire. Not to mention on weibo there’s videos of vehicles being abandoned. How will this affect it
Note: mind you I’m not through the whole vid yet
I’m asking your opinions
LOL
How can you call the profitable ev company a meme stock?
Guess where the profit goes..
Spot on about hybrid...
IF YOU THINK SELLING A CAR IS SAME AS SELLING BARBIEs OR LEGOs, YES, BLOODBATH IS POSSIBLE BUT MAY BE AFTER 10 YEARS... THAT LONG IT TAKES TO CREATE SOLID REPUTATIONS
The Japanese car companies took 15-20 years, the Korean car companies took about the same. The Chinese car companies will take the same when warren buffet helps byd enter the us market. Let’s see if Tesla, and the other major car companies will lobby against the Chinese car companies.
Chinese cars can barely last for 10 years.
EM has nuked the dealership legal monopoly, which makes it a lot easier for BYD to cruise in and start their own non-dealership sales network. OOPS
@@edj5532 China will do it in 1 year, that is the difference between China and the rest of the world. Things are moving way faster than you can imagine.
@@jarrodmagnusson4101 China doesn't even have TOILETS. LOLOL
He went long china short india last year....... Thats all I need to know.
Well THEORETICALLY being long on India might be a winner; with the caveat you have a LOT of patience
We're talking like 75 - 100 years.
Hey you could bequeath those india assets to your descendants.
Good we need car competion they're way to expensive in usa
Tires only go bald if you need them to drive back and forth to work or to the next job site…
I expect US consumers to continue buying ICE and hybrids as long as oil is plentiful and cheap. They will slowly move towards gasless vehicles. By that time the global market might have worked itself out a bit and we’ll see what the situation is.
Fabulous interview - Rupert is full of good insights. Next time I'd like to know the origin of the Blind Squirrel - is that an Asian thing?!
Note: we are not at the point in the play when the host (who earns his paycheck from a crypto-centric company) will even ask a throw-away question about the orange coin despite the convo organically turning to short fiat/hard assets.
We want those EV cars in USA asap
and what is about GM and Ford ?
I looked it up u can't import Chinese ev
You may see them in 2-3 years since BYD start to manufacture EV in Mexico in 2025.
Impossible, the west will make new laws and ban all Chinese vehicles.
if they can not compete, they just ban you
@@s1197 they are 💩and over priced
He's COMPLETELY wrong on Chinese real estate!! Those prices need to dump another 50%
So does real estate everywhere else. Commercial RE is grossly overvalued since the work from home revolution. RE itself is massively overvalued. Look at NYC. All the apartments going for tens of millions of dollars in Manhattan are empty. They are investments by foreigners and multi millionaires.
@@mithrandirthegrey7644 NYC looks dirt cheap compared to Beijing or Shanghai once you factor in local median income vs price per square foot. China real estate is stupidly unaffordable for no reason other than a decades long speculative bubble and prices have a long way to go downwards
good interview. interesting points. his position on hybrids is arguable. although it seems to be popular in America at the moment, haha. BEVs are the way, no doubt about that. hybrids are just a marketing ploy at the moment. won't last. neither will Toyota. shorting Tesla? that's crazy dangerous. probably lost a lot of money on that. and the Chinese EV company he was working at, WM in Shanghai, is the first large one to go bankrupt here. bad selection. will read some of his papers. i like the idea of leveraging on assets you cannot be stopped out of. not sure options on ETFs are the tool. these London bankers types never understand tech.
Hard disagree. Hybrids are the best solution. You can do your daily driving on your batteries but you don’t have range anxiety when going far.
BEV in Europe maybe - but hybrids are a better solution for the rest of the global market. Longer distances to travel relative to europe/drnse urban centres, harsh winters and lack of reliable grid infrastructure will be the constraining factor for BEV
LOL you think the Chinese understand tech better than America? You Wumao are getting worse at your jobs every day. Does your boss know that you are accidently making Chinese people seem illiterate?
Man he sounds like Hugh Grant 😂
Soul patch questionable
Next Mercedes stocks I would have an eye on BMW and Porsche as a premium auto stock
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Latin America & Africa is many many years from beeing able to have the EV infrastructure to support all the Chinese EV cars.
The idea that the immense EV oversupply manufactured and subsidized in China, which won’t be allowed to land in the US and Europe, can be sold or in any way placed in South America or in Africa is ridiculously absurd - to put it very nicely
@@nickkacures2304Very interesting
@@dankurth4232but hybrid (battery plus ice)Chinese car r also of the same price range
You think they don’t have electricity? Most major cities in these countries have ev’s.
@@nickkacures2304delusional
Great guest! It seems to me that the USA will be able to tax and sanction Chinese EV imports to protect our manufacturers.
But Germany will not have that luxury. 50% of VW global sales happen in China. So they are really stuck, aren't they?
VW has a PE ~5 and a dividend of 6%. I suspect this risk is recognized and priced-in
china is the largest market for american autos. gm will go bankrupt without chinese market so i don’t think US manufacturers would be protected if chinese cars are sanctioned
Yes, they are all in big trouble.
The ultimate mean reversion trader was....Long Term Capital Management. Go figure...
ok but Scooby Doo was the beginning of the complete destruction of cartoon culture.
By "bloodbath" they meant to say "decidedly more affordable wave of superior quality autos".
Domination of manufacturing and production and innovation is moving away from Europe.
Asia is willing to take prosperous future that Europe enjoys for decades
Brill
Its all EV Cars. Thats Good.
We need mortgages for 300,000 at 5%,not 500,000 ones at4.5%😅😮❤
25 yrs ago the West initiated renewable energy and foisted it on the world. Al Gore went round the world selling carbon credits and became a multimillionaire doing so. Today out of the blue, China has overtaken everyone in renewable energy products and selling better products at cheaper prices all over the world. If it had been US doing it , it would be lauded as symptomatic of American exceptionalism. But it is China that is ahead by a lot and that is unacceptable to the G7 but the rest of the world(88%) applauds it and look forward to using great technology from China at reasonable prices
the likelihood US adopts more protectionist polices, is much higher than most people imagine, and are factoring in. the minority opinion is making good arguments that (over time), the Us MUST decouple from china in order to survive, five years (seems a little fast, but that's what they're advocating). the 'free trade' argument has fallen to the 'productive trade' argument. (as there are three types of trade, productive, unproductive, and the counter-productive trade the US is engaging in with China) the worm is slow to turn, but turn it does.
Gold bugs of the 80s. Howard Ruff. ... We had of our mason jars of junk change and worried about the tri lateral commission .... World don't change. Just the nouns .
Don’t buy VIEs. Don’t buy TSLA.
BLOCKworks......catchy name in the era of crypto.....no shortage of certainty in the tone of the interviewer, who is very young by an old man's standards......next for me.
Soooo its a global hot sauce of Ponzi …. And US taught them … job well done Rupert 😂 go on 😂
Chinese people need bitcoin.
He's COMPLETELY wrong on TESLA
Who says such a thing without bothering with the reasoning to back it up?
@@Discoworx Anyone with a brain. It's so self evident. Saying "Tesla is just a car company" is so completely absurd that even the talking heads on CNBC have stopped spouting that line
@@apvial it's a truck company, too? 😂😂😂
@@apvial or a taxi company 😂😂😂😂😂😂
@@Discoworx you and him belong together 😂
After hearing his take on the housing market, I just can't take him seriously.
Banks are being forced to lend to the companies so they can finish homes. Homes that have already been sold. There's literally no hope for a return on investment.
Unless demand for houses magically does a 180 (in a declining population, in an overspeculated market, during economic uncertainty, for _unbuilt new_ homes, it ain't happening.
I was sceptical on his China take his view on toyota and about some of the early ev stuff but what totally turned me off was the statement that Tesla is ONLY a car company. Gotta love the internet as that statement is gonna come back and bite this guy
Sorry but I disagree with about 95% of his outlook and predictions. His own analytics on his own portfolio proves it.
Thank you China...
Microsoft Windows and OFFICE dominates al countries in the world.
That's not a problem
Byt Chinese EV's rapidly spreading its market worldwide.
But that is a problem
The Toyota CEO correctly said 3 years ago that EV is a foolish strategy.
Totally ready to get a disposable low-mid quality Chinese EV as my secondary vehicle. Why not?
Keep waiting CCP promises
Already tried temu? The cheapest online order shop?
Just America unleashed Microsoft on the worjd
As long as they can money off drugs,people will be making and getting people hooked on them.The Drug Encouragement Administration will help them all stay in business.😅😅😮😢
BYD EV? Let's see how well it is built. And who actually buys one?
I'm playing the china 🦠🦠🦠🦠 virus auto scam shorting....Shorting NIO has been wonderful 😊😊😊
Like any Chinese product it will fall apart after 2 to 3 yrs.
@@schoolsfan3719 American made products are not much better, look at Boeing
We have quite a few around in new zealand
Byd & mg have been importing cars to Bristol & they have been sat there for months. The mg looks like a Volkswagen at the back and a nissan at the front. I think you can rebadge them.
What are the risks/benefits of holding Chinese ADR's on NYSE vs holdings directly on HKSE?
"CHI-NA" 🇨🇳😂
First
T3RMINATOR !
I've rarely seen a more desperate attempt to inflate and talk someone's book into value. It's his money so good luck with that. This global story isn't even close to a bottom. IMHO
I was less bearish on china before hearing this podcast. gasoline engines makes more sense for the US, than it does China. we have and abundance of light sweet crude, which is what gasoline is all about. It's why gasoline dominates, plus the size of the US relative to its population. if the US government forces EV adoption, it will be a disaster
Shitcoiner 2.0 meeting another shitcoiner 2.0 telling us the same old same old... brruhhhh😂😂😂😂
What kind of language is this.."Bloodbath?" Don't buy Chinese automobile if you don't like them?
This guy definitely has his red tinted glasses on. “China will be fine. Trust me, bro, I lived there”. Ok.
They don't compare the management between China and the West ..LOL
China will survive, but interfacing with China will hurt other countries extremely as they export deflation and export over-capacity
You sound like you shit Stars and Stripes. For every issue China has - we’ve got an equivalent.
Comments like this make me want to invest heavily in China lol
This guy had me until he said evs are dead 😂😂 whilst he’s a China bull. Talk about contradicting
I think his point was that cheap well made Chinese EVs are going to kill everyone else in the EV manufacturing business (except luxury) 👍🏼
@@stumpy25lbs nope said Toyota is going to win and hybrid will take over evs 😂😂😂
@@tomcockcroft9394 so why does he like BYD so much then..? 🤣🤣🤣
@@stumpy25lbs not sure that’s why I said it was a huge contradiction 😂😂 don’t think he knows much about much. Just that they all have 4 wheels. Not a tech guy or engineer
@@tomcockcroft9394 hmm, didn't you listen to the first half hour where he talked about all his relevant experience..? Guess we'll just have to agree to disagree as I found him to be one of the most interesting and knowledgable guests I've heard! 😅😅
WM Motor is a joke.
The production of EVs is far worse for the environment than gas guzzling cars. Be careful what you wish for
Cool story. Data please....
Hard pass for me owning a EV much less a Chinese EV.
Like any other Chinese product it will last 2 to 3 years.
Some hybrid cars from China are actually pretty good and cheap like Li Auto. BEV is junk because they causes more pollution than ICE. But hybrid using only 10% of battery are considered "greener" than ICE. They can also achieve 55 miles per gallon about twice than ICE car.
Very ignorant
This is the type of stuff that boomers stuck in 1990 say. China is on-par or world leading in several technologies now. The low quality plastic garbage from China era has been over for the last decade.
@@mithrandirthegrey7644
The majority of Tesla cars are made in China. What does that say about the quality of Tesla?
@@mithrandirthegrey7644 There is not a single technology in the entire world that the Chinese have created and they literally had to steal all tech that they currently have from foreigners. China never has and never will "lead" in any capacity.
"Im going to write my trade ideas down" "what are you going to write it on?" Im going to write them down on a scorecard, but don't use it as a scorecard!!!!" Typical australian behavior
Lol, history repeating. An economist not knowing on what they loose there clients money.
Breh, you can’t use that word Trump used, that makes you as racist as him.
Shut up
Tesla is an AI company, not a car company. This guy is off on a few things said. Spread a bit thin by the sound.
…AI company with no breaking through expertise & success in fully autonomous driving😳
…and PE of 40!!!
China is going to GET BETTER! I don't really know why but it will. I just know it. I feel it.
New homes sold in March 2024 fell by 46% as compared to March 2023.
No DATA! No CHARTS! Just FEELINGS. 🤣🤣🤣
@phildefer2342 only in America is there a bailout for the so-called CAPITALISTS.
if rubber for tires makes a tire cost 4k with bideninflation and soon trumpflation well people are gonna make tires out of something else or with way less rubber then. you cant increase a cost without a reaction. but i guess if your a trader your going to hit that right at that moment. frankly with pop decline going into overdrive in years ahead anything mass market is a huge loser. we all know why btw that will be coming. i wont mention it.
You lose credibility with such a gutter level tagline. I’m not even listening to this.
Since when is hybrid a good idea. Name me one product where old and new tech is combined and it stayed that way. I can think about blackberry or horse supported motor vehicles. Would you invest in a company which tries to connect your cellphone to a landline again or a company which combines gun power with archery 😂😂
lol i like you guys but please just GTFO of here with that warmongering clickbait of a headline
America does not want Chinese EVs sorry
Relax, China has no official EV exports to the US.😅
The bloodbath is only happening in China.
Neither does the global south want USA EVs sorry.
@@xfactor6099 Global south doesn't even have toilets, of course they don't want electric vehicles.
What a fool. Appears to have no idea of the scale of the problems in China. Tedious discussion.
It's poorly masked CCP propaganda. It's like watching a poorly done Chinese tourism advertisement.
Lunatics