The Risk of Major War Between China and the United States | Dr Ross Babbage
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- Опубликовано: 9 фев 2025
- Despite slightly improved atmospherics in recent weeks, China and the United States remain at loggerheads over several important issues - most notably the future of Taiwan.
The challenges for Australia and its allies are immense. Amongst the complications are that the two sides are planning to fight quite different types of war, they have different strengths and weaknesses, they are at different states of preparation and they are focusing on fighting for very different periods.
This presentation will briefly address the issues and options for Australian and allied decision-makers.
🎯 Key Takeaways for quick navigation:
14:33 *Serious risk assessment.*
16:25 *China's strategic goals.*
18:36 *Demographic challenges.*
21:44 *Economic concerns.*
22:54 *Chinese investment reduced by 40% since 2016.*
23:21 *China's surveillance state: Over 400 million CCTV cameras.*
24:16 *China tightens party control, aggressive international behavior.*
24:43 *Debate on whether instability makes Xi more or less secure.*
25:13 *China's definition of war: Politics by other means.*
26:28 *China's main instruments: Information influence, economic coercion, military.*
27:46 *China's view: Gray zone activities, non-kinetic actions, kinetic warfare.*
28:14 *China's advantage: Staying power, focus on long-term attrition.*
30:44 *US weaknesses: Leadership failure, lack of clear strategy, military focus.*
34:10 *China's industrial output surpasses the US since 2004.*
37:06 *Urgency for improving Australia's international competitiveness.*
41:14 *Chinese nuclear expansion aims to enhance deterrence.*
43:03 *China's focus on BRICS and developing countries for global influence.*
44:51 *Signs of deflation in China's economy, challenges in certain sectors.*
45:19 *China's military objectives.*
46:41 *Potential consequences for Australia.*
48:20 *Lack of honesty with the public.*
49:42 *China's psychological preparation.*
51:54 *Importance of social license.*
55:11 *Enhancing information flows.*
57:31 *Understanding China's operations.*
59:33 *Xi Jinping's potential rivals.*
01:00:42 *Crucial period in the next 5-8 years.*
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Why does US has to have military presence all over the world? China has been around for 4000 years and yes it has gone through rough patches but it had picked itself up without colonising any other countries. It’s presence in the SCS is to counter the US presence. Yes there’s conflicting claims to the regions among countries like Vietnam,Phillipines and even Taiwan. The nine dash line was drawn up by the UN after Japan was defeated. However conflicts can be solved without the US involvement . US with its military expansion from Europe to the Middle East has caused untold human suffering since its independence. China’s military increment is all about its own defence. If you look at the US military bases from Pine Gap, Darwin in Australia, the Phillipines, the seventh fleet on the straits of Taiwan, Jeju island in South Korea and now near the Kinmen island and the inclusion of Japan in its new Nato alliance actually according to the Pentagon is forming a noose around China. All US wants to do is to strangle China. China can survive without you lot making it harder, thank you.
He missed a critical key point: Taiwan issue is an Unfinished Chinese Civil War. The point of Civil War is that the parties involved are extremely motivated, like in Vietnam War or Korean War. So this is not just Xi or CCP. Any leader or Government on Mainland will try its best to unite Taiwan. I sincerely hope US and Australia here really learn the lesson of Vietnam War, especially since PRC is much stronger than North Vietnam.
Why people are still dedicating so much time discussing China, China is already dead and buried.
Most armchair China experts believe that if Xi Jinping is replaced a Western puddle will replace him and will change the direction of Chinese policy and will even allow Taiwan independence.
These Gave The World The Right Images And How They Are Thinking That Colonization Is Still Existing In The World .
Every Country Should Defend His Own Dignity And Its Independent ..
the global manufacturing output chart (34:50) seems questionable and does not quote a source. Could you please post the source of this data.
If I was China I’d be feeling very intimidated by all of the American military bases surrounding it. Huge American bases in South Korea, Japan and now the Philippines with additional bases in Singapore, Australia and scattered bases through the Pacific. This has happened because China won’t be subservient to America and America’s world hegemony is under threat. America is forming strategic alliances with even NATO involvement in Japan and the Philippines. Western sanctions are being imposed on China to coerce compliance via their economy. China hasn’t surrounded America with military bases and is only responding in retaliation to America actions. This American military madness has to stop and if they engage with China militarily now is the time for Australia to seriously considering the possibility of an American defeat and where that leaves our future.
Australia's position has been decided already. You are told you are not allowed to be hostile country against China said by Chinese Foreign Minster. You need to remember and implement this directive.
Liberty sure can be a hard pill to swallow.
Just let you know, you are Australia. Whatever it is, it has nothing to do with you. You are not a player on the table. There is no strategy can help you if you don't know who you are.
The biggest contribution you can make is to thoroughly discuss the cost of war. If you want to go to war, be honest and let people have an idea of what the cost of war is.
A classic cold-war warrior. God help us!
It's all well and fine to do analysis but one has to ask since WW2, which peer status country did the US fought with and won? The recent US bombing of the Houthi did not, in the slightest, stop them from continuing firing missiles at ships heading to Israeli ports to the extent that the US has appealed to China for help! The US hasn't won a peer adversary country since 1945 so what makes any one believe the US is up to the mark to fight China? One might add that Panama and Grenada do not count. It's the same meme repeated ad nauseum about Xi the dictator and CPC (and not CCP). One is also intrigue about how the AUKUS trilateral clown show is getting on.
Do we know if the person with the cough is still alive. Im surprised they made it through the presentation.
so predictable, these so-called experts.
believe me, never happen.
All the stuff that can be copied and pasted from ABC, BBC, CNN or just Sky news, make up a strategic thinking lecture! 😂
Stop acknowledging the traditional owners of the land when, as John Pilger ably showed just a year before his death, both parties in your govt. go out of their way to ignore bare bones basic health services guaranteed on paper to those on actually acknowledged (rather than emptily verbalized) tribal lands but provided only to residents of Australian cities. You do nothing to promote their cause so you shouldn't be giving insulting acknowledgements of the lands' traditional owners.
Poor quality of 'expert'. A hypocrite or an ignorant, pick one