Deep Dive 30/07/2024 - Heatwaves and thunderstorms - Met Office weekly weather forecast UK
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 13 сен 2024
- This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. As the humidity and heat build this week across England and Wales, there’s a risk of thunderstorms for some. But will the heat last until the weekend and are hot days like these becoming more common. Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Annie Shuttleworth and Senior Scientist Mike Kendon.
You may also enjoy:
- 10 Day trend forecast • 10 Day Trend Forecast UK
- Podcasts exploring weather and climate • Weather podcast series
- Daily weather forecasts • UK national weather fo...
Subscribe to make sure you never miss the latest UK weather forecast or important weather warning - www.youtube.co...
We are the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, and every day of the week we bring you a morning weather forecast and an afternoon weather forecast so that wherever you are in the UK we have you covered.
Forecast and any weather warnings are accurate at time of recording. To ensure you have the most up to date weather information, check the hourly forecast and live warnings on the Met Office website or app.
Anything to go back to that refreshing day we had at the end of June after that hot spell when it was really low humidity, 20mph breezes and 18C, that was warm enough, perfect even.
I wholeheartedly concur with your post 🎉👍👍👍
Fascinating Deep Dive from a meteorological and statistical point of view. Thank you Annie and Mike - great job!
Thanks for the deep dive, Annie, and congratulations on the baby.
I think our forecasters coped VERY well with the awkward screen. Difficult to keep one's composure when lecturing if the graphics decide to wander off schedule. Definitely a professional tour-de-force from Annie as anyone who has been in her situation will know. 👍
Just brilliant Annie. Loved how you coped with the recalcitrant touch screen. You make the subject come alive. Thanks to Mike too.
Very interesting, thank you both for your fine work 🙏🪷🕊️🦋
We've had a miserable summer. We get a few warm days and we get this. STOP IT!
OMG! A few warm days followed by thunderstorms in a UK summer???
Who'd have thought it? Whatever next?
Very many thanks Annie and Mike, a very informative and interesting Deep Dive. Thank you so very much Mike for explaining just how Climate Change will affect our youngsters and their youngsters, I can quite see how that will happen. It’s changed so very much from my childhood years to now, quite a difference for certain! However, as Mike rightly says as time goes on the coming generations won’t know the ‘now’ only the ‘then’. Many thanks to you both and to the Met. Take great care with the heat everyone.😊
thanks Annie. i'll be happier with 22c on Sunday afternoon because it's too humid atm.
The state of the climate report is a review of the weather from 2023 and how the data from that year fits in to our changing climate. We have had a cooler summer than average this year so far, and these types of summer will continue to occur, but less frequently. Perhaps that is why it is so notable for so many people as it is such a change from the warmer summers and years we have become used to in recent years. This pattern also fits with the year to year variation that Mike discuses in the video. To see how our climate is changing we look at longer term trends in which it is very clear that there has been a change in recent decades.
The climate will always change , always has and always will.
We can all see the change. Especially those that remember 1976 heatwave.
Hello Anne
And of course the Met Office knows everything about climate science, right? Not just the weather. No, they have a magic crystal ball in which they can see the future. Because everybody knows the future is always perfectly linear...right?
@@yesmate78 Which gets conveniently forgotten by the climate change fanatics.
Years ago I remember being told that global warming would create a cooler climate in the UK due to an interruption of the Gulfstream?
That is still a longer term possibility because the AMOC is weakening. Not seen as likely this century though.
@@alfiemagic This century is on the cards, son.
Congratulations on your pregnancy ❤
Thank you Annie, and congratulations.
Excellent as always! Thank you! Annoyingly but unsurprisingly, the more popular these videos get, the more idiots pop up in the comments 🙄 love the live format and keep it up!
Thanks for an excellent deep dive.
To those complaining about this summer, I’ve met Spanish students here to study English who absolutely love the fact they are not having to spend time in the horrendous heat in continental Europe at the moment. We have been blessed to remain so cool and wet this year. It won’t last forever and then we’ll be in trouble
@@julianlawrence-ball2279 My vegs would have liked more sun, but you're right, much better than enduring over 40 degrees!
I disagree with u both. I’d rather have heat than this crappy weather any day
@@rachelsteele7699 Have you lived in 40 degrees?
@@rachelsteele7699 What would you rather have? A hot country where wildfires are a hazard or a cooler, wet country with lovely green countryside?
@@Mykst didn’t say I wanted the country to 🔥, I said I wanted better weather. We are meant to have seasonal weather which appears to be mixed up. I like summers days etc not this cold weather
Has the Heat Island affect been taken into account, please note many weather stations that were in the countryside 50 years ago are now in built up areas. So they are not monitoring like for like. Please note there are several weather stations right next to commercial and military airports/airfields.
Richard - you could have found the answer in less time than it took to write the question...
Yes, the heat island effect is considered when measuring temperature changes in Britain. Urban heat islands (UHIs) can significantly influence local temperatures, especially in densely populated areas. To ensure the accuracy and representativeness of temperature data, meteorologists and climatologists employ various strategies:
1. **Selection of Weather Stations**: Temperature measurements are often taken from a mix of urban and rural weather stations. This helps balance the data and provide a more comprehensive picture of temperature changes across different environments.
2. **Adjustments and Corrections**: Statistical methods are used to adjust for the UHI effect. These adjustments help account for the artificial warming caused by urbanization and ensure that long-term temperature trends reflect broader regional changes rather than localized urban effects.
3. **Homogenization of Data**: Historical temperature records are homogenized to correct for changes in measurement practices, station locations, and urbanization. This process helps create consistent and reliable long-term temperature datasets.
4. **Comparative Analysis**: Temperature data from urban areas are often compared with data from nearby rural or less developed areas. This comparison helps identify and quantify the UHI effect.
By employing these methods, the impact of urban heat islands is mitigated, allowing for more accurate assessments of temperature changes and trends in Britain.
THIS is summer, at last! Admittedly, the heat is a little more than most like, especially at night..but I am not complaining after months of our so called summer, I.e. low pressure after more low pressure systems..
Wind, cold, rain, slate grey skies will be with us before we know it.. Enjoy summer whilst we have it!
I love thunderstorms, really hope we get some 💥⚡️😁
Excellent DD 👍🏼
Fantastic job. Well done!
Just normal summer temperatures here in the northeast and it’s lovely
Thank you, Annie. A clear explanation of what is likely to happen over the next few days, and the anticipated future rise in average temperatures.
Thanks, Annie. Can you explain the underlying principle of forcing, in relation to thunderstrom development.
23:16 its as if the areas with the most urban develpment are getting warmer. are the weather stations near towns and cities?.
They do try to correct for that in the central England temperature average. I don't know about the UK average.
That was very interesting thank you. Always watch the short weather reports, but first time I have watched the indepth completely. I used to cringe as a child when my Dad was so interested in the weather after the news and we had to keep quiet when it was on. Now I am a father and doing the same thing, keeping an eye on the weather constantly cos it changes so much day to day. I am glad I live in East of England though as generally get more stable weather than other areas of the UK. Thank you Annie
Excellent , thanks for showing the way our climate is changing in such a clear way.
Thank you for this deep dive, very interesting!
Thanks ,Annie and Mike , a very interesting deep dive . When I was much younger I was terrified of thunderstorms , my Nan used to refer to them as , Mother Goose moving her furniture . Now I love them . Some time in the 1950's , my late Mum in law witnessed ,Ball Lightning ,a rarity I believe . Are there any records of this occurring ? thanks again , stay cool , and stay safe .
Thank you
Thank you for a very interesting presentation
The highest temperature ever recorded in the UK during June was 38.7°C (101.7°F) at Cambridge Botanic Garden on June 29, 2019.
Thanks , another great show …both for weather and climate 👍
Thanks annie for a fascinating deep dive..liked the explanation of clouds and thunderstorms..definitely feeling the humidity out there today..
In this post-glacial period we live in, land is rising IMBY (Liverpool bay). To what extent is sea-level rise offset/exacerbated by post glacial rebound, both in rising and falling land areas of Britain?
In general further North is better off, and the South coast is in the worst position. Interestingly, this is actually exacerbated by the melting of the Greenland ice sheet. The ice sheet is so large that its gravity actually pulls the sea up towards it by a significant amount. As it loses mass it will cause a relative fall in sea level in the north of Scotland. This is part of the reason that Pacific island nations are some of the worst affected by sea level rise. They are furthest from where the ice is melting...
Absolutely the best deep dive so far, and I can't wait to have a look at the climate report. Thanks Annie ( and Mike ).
So many experts in the comments 😂 with all their Facebook/tiktok information 😂, we’re doomed
Roll on winter
Winter sucks
Winter ftw!
@@Jake-vh6jp not for the pensioners
@@Tumbleweed_ 💀
One of the worst summers in living memory. A couple of warm days then back comes the climate change narrative.
You basically described climate change 😂
@valentinrizvan1870 really? Wow who'd have thought it.
So you want to go back to that brutal summer of 2022?
@@valentinrizvan1870 Quite right i just stick with the seven day forcarst.
@SquidgyPixel can't remember it but I didn't say that.
also thanks for this great data-driven section on climate change. utterly alarming especially in context of food production.
Man is ruining the world. This sticky heat we get is horrible. Roll on autumn. Its not enjoyable. I'm sure most would prefer 25c and not sticky . Nice but comfortable.
Autumn?it's been Autumn all summer
Thanks, as ever, for the deep dive. Can I join others in a plea for a brief tutorial on ‘forcing’ - how is this forecast and what is actually going on? Many thanks - Paul
Been warm down Cornwall this week, hoping it stays nice next week, heading home to South Wales on the 9th August 🙂
Wow, I'm surprised at how many people here think that global warming is not happening 😮 Questions: we know that the AMOC is slowing down and a recent paper paints a bleak (cold!) future instead of the more steady warming of our climate. How likely does the MET office thinks this is? Research shows that a tipping point towards AMOC collapse could bring an abrupt change, but what "abrupt" means here in terms of human generations? I know this is quite niche, but may be interesting as a way to further inform people about the science of climate change and how this relates to our weather. Thanks for very interesting videos!
I suspect the trolls are out due to the title of the video.
It would seem that some people are so sad they will actively search for any content with climate change and make a disparaging ill-informed comment.
The fact that this video has 104 comments in little under an hour I reckon bears my theory out.
For these types of people it would appear that they celebrate revelling in stupidity.
That they would dismiss countless thousands of scientists across the globe, engaged in an unprecedented amount of research is so very sad.
I had the misfortune of working in a factory during the 1976 summer,I can assure it wasn't pleasant, temperatures in the 90s is unpleasant in a large low roof building. Air conditioning didn't exist in such places back then.
I had the fortune to work on an ice cream van on Tenby south beach in 1976 🙂
Really hoping we get thunderstorms - we didn't get any last time (I know they're difficult to forecast) ❤ ⛈️❤
Typical Brits in the comments, complain when we're not getting a summer where we can go out and enjoy the weather and then we get a week of nice weather and it's too hot!!! Yes, it can get a bear overbearing in the heat at the moment but it won't last forever and then we'll see people moaning it's too cold out too wet, you can't please some people!!!
Excellent deep dive, really enjoyed it...what happened to the weekly pod cast?
Unfortunately, we can do as much to help climate change, but other bigger countries don't.
Are they changing or is the planet just getting older, and why are we felling forests when we depend on them
I hate this summer so much like 2012 and 2007 ,love this time of the week between this and the deep dive ,love from Ireland 🇮🇪
Nice to enjoy some prolonged sunshine, but being fussy a little less humidity would be appreciated, especially when out mountain biking or walking 🥵 🚴 🥾
There we go again, jet stream too far south & seemingly split with us in-between, holding bad weather in place over us for next week. Why is this happening so much this year?!
someone might get a doctorate working that one out/
Thanks Annie.
8:52 I always see these types of clouds while flying; especially during takeoff on cloudy days
Great stuff so interesting
Do you model in population density and concrete/tarmac growth (over time) in the temperature data? The heat maps looke like a people maps... so I am wondering if that plays into the increase? Or to question it differently, while would your temperature map show greater London as a being warmer than the surrounding area? If you are looking at global trends, you can offset the heating due to buildings etc, then account for the localised hotspots and get a truer general overall 'factor' of the increase of global warming.
concrete and tarmac give an increased local temp compared to grass. I believe this is taken into account.
People are confusing the climate with weather. I thought it’s the hotter waters in the ocean that is feeding more storms/ hurricanes to start earlier and for a longer period of the year which affects the U.S. The remaining low pressure then hops onto the jet stream meaning we end up with wetter colder summers as we encounter more low pressure areas.
I know evebody has there own likes about summer, some like it ccol some like the heat , but one thong that has been lacking the whole of this (so called summmer) is sunlight. There has hardly been any
I've kept records since 1983. Here, it's been the worst summer since 1986. . 4 degrees overnight in July in southern Scotland is unbelievable. Looking at today's chart though it hot in the south and over Harrogate. Is there any link?
Excellent summer has arrived!!
I think 4mm hail, not 4 cm, pretty catastrophic if tennis balls of ice were to fall from the sky
It always used to be said by some that Britain doesn't have a Climate it just has Weather!
We seem to have forgot the beast from the east....... I was out in that and minus -16-c I can say is really cold. So to say we are likely to see less cold events..... does not track for me......
Yes, that was one event you remember because it was so extreme. All that is being said is that we'll still have cold snaps and extreme weather events, maybe more, but that on average over the months and years it is getting warmer. Us as humans tend to only remember the memorable events from our lives and not the other time.
I can remember your summers from my childhood in the 80s and I'd swear we had more hot summers back then, this summer before the recent warm spell doesn't feel as warm, but look at the statistics and whilst the events I mention happened they didn't happen as much as I thought they did because my brain hasn't retained the memory of the boring, wet summers when I couldn't go out as much.
The same goes for winters, I remember the snow, building snowmen and going sledging in my childhood, but that didn't happen that much, even though in my memory says it did happen more often, just like I remember the snow in more recent years, the beast from the east, but I'm not qualified to base my opinion on this just from my own memory, our brains are wonderful things but do deceive us at times.
Great updates.
So just a couple of nice hot days , roughly 2 weeks of something summery, then back to absolute rubbish again, great, I'm moving to Cyprus, at least it's constantly hot n sunny there, never known 2 years in England like it, wettest ever and we've lost the longest days 😢
You and me both, I love the proper heat and sunshine, and won't look back at this shambles of a country....going to die with the sun on my face.....hopefully!
I would love more on the clouds and how the form in different conditions please
That was a fascinating report at the end. Should have liked a bit more information on the winter conditions.
Miss us in the south again 😪
Great 👍🏻 enjoyed the format,felt very natural look forward to the next deep dive.
Much Kudos to Annie for braving talking about climate change.
For some reason it still elicits confusion and dismissal, which is a shame.
On a plus note, it does seem that the majority of people now have an understanding of what it actually means.
Thanks for the Deep Dive, this was a great one!
I do enjoy the Deep Dive, but it needs to be more than an extended forecast. How about explaining basics such as why it’s hot this week but cool on others. That needs an explanation of the atmospheric soundings as was done a few months ago for a different reason. Other subjects could be : what causes the jet stream, what influences the stability or otherwise of the atmosphere.
Well atleast it isn't delayed to September unlike last year thats for sure
2023 was the wettest year on record for the Met Office gauge at Sutton Bonington Leicestershire. It was mentioned in the report but it broke the record previously set in 2012 so worth mentioning. The report statement there were no individual counties where 2023 was the wettest year on record should be clarified with observation data suggesting otherwise
lots of very interesting information - Question is there a point in world climate where global climate change could just run away. irrespective of our efforts to curb green house gas emissions. perhaps as a consequence of significant loss of ice over the poles.
Spring was so slow coming to the east coast we kind of skipped it so just seeing two seasons 7 months cold and 4 months hot and a transitional month.
It's all about what you are used to. Having spent some time in Australia w temperatures above 40 degrees C i can tell you that 32 C is considered quite nice. Same in other hot areas.
Two different climates. The average temperature for large areas of south eastern England is only around 23C. Nice or not, it's higher than where it should be.
How can the Met Office tell us what is going to happen in years ahead , when they can't forecast the weather several days in advance? These deep dives are interesting to watch , but as for being accurate.. give me a break.
Weather and climate are different things.
I'm sorry that climate confuses you
@@TheSuperTrickey why do you find it confusing?
@@Xenon777_ thanks for sharing the knowledge you have.
@@TheSuperTrickey Is it today's hot weather that is confusing you? Climate is straightforward , please don't feel out of touch , it is not confusing .. Honestly.
What about the warm summers of the 70s i rember 1976 as mention in the video i think no rain for 3 months a drouth and many other warm summers before even that looks like were not going to see the like of that in the future
The top ten hottest summers in the central England temperature record.
1 17.72°C 1976
2 17.61°C 1826
3 17.41°C 2018
4 17.33°C 1995
5 17.32°C 2006
6 17.30°C 2022
7 17.28°C 2003
8 17.09°C 1846
9 17.08°C 1983
10 17.05°C 1947
There were plenty of hot summers back then, but most of them have happened in the last 30 years.
36°C in Paris at 5pm today
Great episode Annie and Mike, really enjoyed the discussion on the storms and the wider climate change discussion. The information is fairly chilling, ha, weather pun not intended. I hope we can convince the people who only think in terms of money that life is more important than their companies.
Why can't we have some nice long periods of warm weather getting fed up with a few days then it rains and turns cold
Run for your lifes the world is going to blow up.
Question how come its get worse the more people try to save the planet ??
because its already too late
Very interesting thank you both:)
I lurve this slide guitar weather. Proper summer.
I am very glad that cooler weather is on the way.
Fascinating. Really insightful and whilst it’s liveable changes in the UK overseas these changes are deadly.
Thank you Annie and team. Very imformative. :-)
May of been the warmest year but have you considered its been the wettest year. We need the warm and sunnier weather for our farmlands otherwise fields would flood and become useless for over the rest of the years
We will be flying to Portsmouth in August for the birth of our third grandchild. We are from Arizona, currently in north Texas. I asked my English friend how I should pack and she just laughed. I can’t wait, it’s been my dream to visit England all my life. I’m curious to see what hot weather in the UK feels like…we’re used to 100s F.
Brace yourself, it’s a bit like when we have snow……. Disappointing with lots of drama 😆😂🤣😂🥰
@@karenellis3039 I am almost beside myself about this trip.❤️🇬🇧❤️
@@thestraightroad305 I hope you have an amazing time, and enjoy every minute, congratulations on the birth of your third grandchild 🥰❣️👍🏼
@@karenellis3039 When did we last have snow, seeing as the Thames used to freeze over?
@@karenellis3039 Thank you kindly for your welcoming words. ❤️ I’ll be there to help for a couple of months. I smile every time I think of it.☺️
Three or four days of heatwaves, followed by thunderstorms in the afternoon of the third/fourth day - but this was when I lived in Texas!
Aw, I love how the weather map has a mind of it's own occasionally and Annie looks a bit flustered, bless her. Reminds me of Sidekick Simon and his 'digi-wall' on This Time with Alan Partridge
I know you can't talk about everything in regards to climate change but I wish you'd have talked about rainfall and extreme weather events with your expert, Mike, and not just temperature and heat, even this was super interesting. Maybe there needs to be a whole episode on this report separate to the weather for the next 10 days, just a suggestion, we need to hear more what's in this report.
Do you have statistics going back on the frequencies of thunderstorms, I think we get less now (well here anyway Peterborough) than we used to in the 70s and 80s - but we now get hotter weather which you would think would cause more storms.
What did you mean by "mid-level forcing"?
That was a bit disjointed with the tech. I would have started over. It made things difficult to follow.
Sometimes the screen has a mind of its own - sorry that made it hard to follow. I am getting there with all of the functions!
Thanks very much for the detailed information.
Another interesting deep dive, thanks. I think it would have been even better if the first half was less of a detailed forecast - for example, there was an opportunity to explain what upper-level forcing is. For me, explaining the weather is the main reason to watch the deep dive.
❤
England got smaller Scotland got bigger 😂😂😂
I think if the tech is being tricky, you shocked edit it out using a hidden cut to the map for a mow. The presenters can stop and have think knowing it will be trimmed.
And ignore the egg heads on here.
No it wasn't the tech, sorry it was poor. Totally skipped the weekend rainfall which I really needed to see
Will climate change cuase us to to have climatr change into into autum winter spring and summer and winter ? Is climate change normal i mean does climte change into summer ? Its terrifying to thing we will have climate change into seasons, yet its kind of nice to thing that the climate change has now made it nice in uk at moment