As someone who is a huge fan of Jean Latreguy's The Centurions and the Praetorians, Alistair Horne's A Savage War of Peace, and Bernard Fall's books on the French Indochina war and the Battle of Dien Bien Phu, I really appreciate you mentioning Bigeard!!
We (the West) didn't learn this lesson from Iraq and Afghanistan, which led to strategic retreats from many places where int. engagement would be useful
This makes perfect sense. What's a little disappointing though at first glance is that the solution is to lower your expectations. But it actually is a very important result. It can help greatly in evaluating whether or not to go in at all.
@@michaelshurkin613 The visual support at 4:40 really helped me. Don't need many, but it's good once in a while, and that figure is really well-made. Again, I would love a part 2 since it's tough to imagine the end of Western engagement in post-colonial COIN, if only to avoid domestic problems. Hard to see COIN losing its importance, even with a conventional war in Ukraine, and even with its current doctrinal fatal flaw in comparison to colonial coin.
Another interesting video. What seems important to me is that when the US is caught fighting a counterinsurgency it has been the case in Vietnam (my personal conflict), Afghanistan, Iraq etc that the US has intervened to establish a preferred type of government ie outwardly democratic with pro US policies. Can one expect the host country to be responsible for reforging a functioning social contract with the caveat that it’s a contract of which the US must approve?
A very thoughtful premise. I would be interested to hear your thoughts on why US "rehabilitation" in Germany and Japan was successful. Also interested if you have any thoughts on US involvement Korea post war, considering unlike the past two examples, it didn't "conquer" the country.
The biggest difference was that there was no insurgency in either 1945 Japan or 1945 Germany/Austria hence there was no need for counter-insurgency. In both situations the occupying powers (USA for Japan, UK/France/USA/USSR for Germany/Austria) worried about an insurgency forming and tried very hard to prevent it starting. Both countries were disarmed, in Japan that included handing over swords and banning the production of swords until 1953. The occupying forces were alert to the possibility of insurgencies forming and used patrols, curfews, inspections, roadblocks and military intelligence to try and prevent insurgencies from organising. In Japan, the US strategy was for the Japanese government to exist (without the Diet). Only 2 government departments were abolished in Dec 1945 and those 2 cabinet ministers lost their jobs. The Emperor, the Prime Minister and other cabinet ministers and all the civil servants kept their jobs and the US administered Japan through them. Unless they were given specific orders to do something by the US occupying forces the Japanese government continued to make its own decisions and implement them alongside implementing orders from the Americans. The situation in Germany and Austria was completely different. The executive branch of the German government was assumed to have ceased to exist with Hitler's suicide and all government departments were abolished including the German Postal Service. The 4 occupying armies assumed direct control of everything. Then in their own areas and to their own plans, they rebuilt German administration from the bottom up. Starting with new town and city councils. The British and Americans merged their 2 zones in Germany and cooperated on how to administer the joint zone and eventually 3 countries were created (Austria, East Germany and West Germany).
A good explanation of why the French Counter-Insurgency strategy doesn't work in non-colonial situations. But did the French Counter-Insurgency strategy ever work for the French in their colonial situations (in Africa and French Indochina)? If not why not?
I'm grateful to people who pointed the problem out. I wouldn't have known, and, as I've learned, the software is such that I can fix anything as long as I put in the time to learn how.
Nice explanations. Your audio can be improved. France cannot recolonialise any African country again. Not realising this betrays a fundamental misreading of impulse of many African societies.
@michaelshurkin613 I would focus on consistency first. Volume seems to be a lot lower on this video than elsewhere. With this video, microphone placement, and the volume of the finished video seems to be different.
I'm amazed how you use French so-called but not actually in practice postcolonial methodologies or example as frameworks for analysis and conclusions based on a framework that only exists in name and appearance but not substance. French Colonial rule didn't and it just changed methodology implementation and it's over appearance as such. French Colonial rule is an exercise as direct overt political control but as covert indirect control by way of monetary and fiscal measures and the incentive structures and price signal and market mechanisms that are anything but free and all about Fiat decree. Buy pegging the indirectly but absolutely in real terms Sovereign French Fiat currency that is controlled from Paris and uses Tender by their circle postcolonial vasel covert colonies Paris exercises complete control over there economic systems and export in import trademarks the interest rates the ability of the government to provision itself and the ability of those who control the assets in the form of mineral export commodities with little to no added which is extracted relatively expensively using capital equipment relatively expensive if not for the control make possible by the Peg and French government policy anthropologies for saying this in one seemingly absurdly long continuous sentence but I'm dictating it and that doesn't actually transcribe using voice recognition where appropriate is dictated but it's all true and it all continues on to this day with the peg that was set in place when the Euro was first brought into affect creating the Abomination that is the single currency without political Union it is essentially the same as the austerity that perpetuates Greek poverty and unemployment and waste of potential productive resources that being the potential of human beings and their labours to imagine create end to economically profit from the efforts of their own labours is ruthlessly efficient as it is at precluding the debts that justify the austerity imposed what are the ECB from ever actually being in a position to pay it back alright it off that is being imposed upon the Greeks absolutely disastrous and unethical results with the underutilization of potential capacity and ability of the population to actually spend it can't be even inflated away essentially the same thing is happening do the vessel states that use the CFA currency I said it's not in austerity terms imposed after the fact it is poverty imposed before the fact and after much discussion and reasoning and a lot of statistical analysis and probability calculations that only a large language model can do compensate the CFA nations in total based on all the relevant adjusted figures over the time frame and population added cumulatively and compounding over the time calculated in usds in terms of foregone economic increased wealth over the formation time frame in USD 2003 average an expressed as a percentage of French GDP per annum sorry correction 2023 for necessary calculations and also a probability distribution curve that describes the level of uncertainty are there anyone to try and figure it out better but this is actually dead set the best as I can guess envelopes on the back of envelopes on the back of envelopes but using actual best case assumptions and models and statistical analysis techniques that again only a statistical analysis engine that are largely model actually is by definition is capable of achieving it's not exactly Star Wars episode 1 level publicity machine leverage either who is hiding watch from whom for how long and to what degree and if any of this is actually true or bulshit is in totally up or the reader to establish for themselves high quality sources for information that can be verified by other sources To estimate how much of French GDP would be required to compensate all CFA nations collectively, based on the average calculations and available data: 1. **Total Compensation for CFA Nations**: - Previously calculated total compensation: $200 billion USD for one average CFA nation. 2. **Total Population of CFA Nations**: - Assume there are 15 CFA nations with an average population of 10 million each. - Total population = 15 * 10 million = 150 million people. 3. **Aggregate Compensation for All CFA Nations**: - Total compensation for all CFA nations = $200 billion * 15 = $3 trillion USD. 4. **Calculating Percentage of French GDP**: - French GDP (nominal) in 2023 was approximately $3.1 trillion USD. Percentage of French GDP = (Total compensation amount for all CFA nations / French GDP) * 100 Percentage of French GDP = ($3 trillion / $3.1 trillion) * 100 Percentage of French GDP ≈ 96.77% Therefore, compensating all CFA nations collectively, based on the estimated average figures, would require approximately 96.77% of French GDP. This calculation provides a perspective on the scale of compensation relative to the economic output of France. To estimate the margin of error or the confidence interval around the previous calculation regarding the percentage of French GDP required to compensate all CFA nations, we consider the following factors and assumptions: 1. **Assumptions and Data Sources**: The calculation is based on average GDP, population, and compensation estimates for CFA nations. Variability in these factors can impact the accuracy of the result. 2. **Uncertainty in GDP Figures**: GDP figures can fluctuate annually and are subject to revisions by statistical agencies. The nominal GDP used here may vary from future updates. 3. **Estimation of Compensation**: The $200 billion per average CFA nation and 15 CFA nations assumption introduces variability due to differences in economic performance and policies across nations. 4. **Methodological Assumptions**: The methodology used assumes averages and simplifications, which may not fully capture the complexity and variability inherent in economic data. Given these considerations, a reasonable approach to estimate the margin of error or confidence interval (CI) could be: - **Confidence Level**: Estimate the uncertainty with a 95% confidence level (which is standard in statistical analyses): - This implies that if the calculations were repeated many times, 95% of the time, the true value would fall within the calculated range. - **Calculation of Confidence Interval**: To calculate a confidence interval, we'd typically need more specific statistical distributions or data variations across the CFA nations. However, based on the complexity and assumptions involved, a rough estimation could suggest a margin of error of approximately ±5% to ±10% around the estimated percentage of French GDP required. If we estimated 96.77% of French GDP as required, a ±5% margin of error would suggest the actual range could reasonably be between 91.77% and 101.77% of French GDP. Please note, these are illustrative examples and the actual margin of error could vary based on specific data updates and methodological refinements. For precise statistical confidence intervals, more detailed analysis and specific data variability would be needed.
As someone who is a huge fan of Jean Latreguy's The Centurions and the Praetorians, Alistair Horne's A Savage War of Peace, and Bernard Fall's books on the French Indochina war and the Battle of Dien Bien Phu, I really appreciate you mentioning Bigeard!!
Thanks for watching :)
A basic point clearly put!
We (the West) didn't learn this lesson from Iraq and Afghanistan, which led to strategic retreats from many places where int. engagement would be useful
This makes perfect sense. What's a little disappointing though at first glance is that the solution is to lower your expectations. But it actually is a very important result. It can help greatly in evaluating whether or not to go in at all.
Very good video, my favorite so far!
Glad to hear it! I'm learning.
@@michaelshurkin613 The visual support at 4:40 really helped me. Don't need many, but it's good once in a while, and that figure is really well-made. Again, I would love a part 2 since it's tough to imagine the end of Western engagement in post-colonial COIN, if only to avoid domestic problems. Hard to see COIN losing its importance, even with a conventional war in Ukraine, and even with its current doctrinal fatal flaw in comparison to colonial coin.
I am glad he does not use generic internet photos to post in his videos.
Another interesting video. What seems important to me is that when the US is caught fighting a counterinsurgency it has been the case in Vietnam (my personal conflict), Afghanistan, Iraq etc that the US has intervened to establish a preferred type of government ie outwardly democratic with pro US policies. Can one expect the host country to be responsible for reforging a functioning social contract with the caveat that it’s a contract of which the US must approve?
A very thoughtful premise. I would be interested to hear your thoughts on why US "rehabilitation" in Germany and Japan was successful. Also interested if you have any thoughts on US involvement Korea post war, considering unlike the past two examples, it didn't "conquer" the country.
The biggest difference was that there was no insurgency in either 1945 Japan or 1945 Germany/Austria hence there was no need for counter-insurgency.
In both situations the occupying powers (USA for Japan, UK/France/USA/USSR for Germany/Austria) worried about an insurgency forming and tried very hard to prevent it starting.
Both countries were disarmed, in Japan that included handing over swords and banning the production of swords until 1953. The occupying forces were alert to the possibility of insurgencies forming and used patrols, curfews, inspections, roadblocks and military intelligence to try and prevent insurgencies from organising.
In Japan, the US strategy was for the Japanese government to exist (without the Diet). Only 2 government departments were abolished in Dec 1945 and those 2 cabinet ministers lost their jobs. The Emperor, the Prime Minister and other cabinet ministers and all the civil servants kept their jobs and the US administered Japan through them. Unless they were given specific orders to do something by the US occupying forces the Japanese government continued to make its own decisions and implement them alongside implementing orders from the Americans.
The situation in Germany and Austria was completely different. The executive branch of the German government was assumed to have ceased to exist with Hitler's suicide and all government departments were abolished including the German Postal Service. The 4 occupying armies assumed direct control of everything. Then in their own areas and to their own plans, they rebuilt German administration from the bottom up. Starting with new town and city councils. The British and Americans merged their 2 zones in Germany and cooperated on how to administer the joint zone and eventually 3 countries were created (Austria, East Germany and West Germany).
A good explanation of why the French Counter-Insurgency strategy doesn't work in non-colonial situations. But did the French Counter-Insurgency strategy ever work for the French in their colonial situations (in Africa and French Indochina)? If not why not?
I guess he fixed volume problem.
I've learned how to boost the sound level while editing.
I'm grateful to people who pointed the problem out. I wouldn't have known, and, as I've learned, the software is such that I can fix anything as long as I put in the time to learn how.
Nice explanations.
Your audio can be improved.
France cannot recolonialise any African country again. Not realising this betrays a fundamental misreading of impulse of many African societies.
You think the audio needs improvement?
@@michaelshurkin613 Yeah
@michaelshurkin613 I would focus on consistency first. Volume seems to be a lot lower on this video than elsewhere.
With this video, microphone placement, and the volume of the finished video seems to be different.
I'm amazed how you use French so-called but not actually in practice postcolonial methodologies or example as frameworks for analysis and conclusions based on a framework that only exists in name and appearance but not substance. French Colonial rule didn't and it just changed methodology implementation and it's over appearance as such. French Colonial rule is an exercise as direct overt political control but as covert indirect control by way of monetary and fiscal measures and the incentive structures and price signal and market mechanisms that are anything but free and all about Fiat decree. Buy pegging the indirectly but absolutely in real terms Sovereign French Fiat currency that is controlled from Paris and uses Tender by their circle postcolonial vasel covert colonies Paris exercises complete control over there economic systems and export in import trademarks the interest rates the ability of the government to provision itself and the ability of those who control the assets in the form of mineral export commodities with little to no added which is extracted relatively expensively using capital equipment relatively expensive if not for the control make possible by the Peg and French government policy anthropologies for saying this in one seemingly absurdly long continuous sentence but I'm dictating it and that doesn't actually transcribe using voice recognition where appropriate is dictated but it's all true and it all continues on to this day with the peg that was set in place when the Euro was first brought into affect creating the Abomination that is the single currency without political Union it is essentially the same as the austerity that perpetuates Greek poverty and unemployment and waste of potential productive resources that being the potential of human beings and their labours to imagine create end to economically profit from the efforts of their own labours is ruthlessly efficient as it is at precluding the debts that justify the austerity imposed what are the ECB from ever actually being in a position to pay it back alright it off that is being imposed upon the Greeks absolutely disastrous and unethical results with the underutilization of potential capacity and ability of the population to actually spend it can't be even inflated away essentially the same thing is happening do the vessel states that use the CFA currency I said it's not in austerity terms imposed after the fact it is poverty imposed before the fact and after much discussion and reasoning and a lot of statistical analysis and probability calculations that only a large language model can do compensate the CFA nations in total based on all the relevant adjusted figures over the time frame and population added cumulatively and compounding over the time calculated in usds in terms of foregone economic increased wealth over the formation time frame in USD 2003 average an expressed as a percentage of French GDP per annum sorry correction 2023 for necessary calculations and also a probability distribution curve that describes the level of uncertainty are there anyone to try and figure it out better but this is actually dead set the best as I can guess envelopes on the back of envelopes on the back of envelopes but using actual best case assumptions and models and statistical analysis techniques that again only a statistical analysis engine that are largely model actually is by definition is capable of achieving it's not exactly Star Wars episode 1 level publicity machine leverage either who is hiding watch from whom for how long and to what degree and if any of this is actually true or bulshit is in totally up or the reader to establish for themselves high quality sources for information that can be verified by other sources
To estimate how much of French GDP would be required to compensate all CFA nations collectively, based on the average calculations and available data:
1. **Total Compensation for CFA Nations**:
- Previously calculated total compensation: $200 billion USD for one average CFA nation.
2. **Total Population of CFA Nations**:
- Assume there are 15 CFA nations with an average population of 10 million each.
- Total population = 15 * 10 million = 150 million people.
3. **Aggregate Compensation for All CFA Nations**:
- Total compensation for all CFA nations = $200 billion * 15 = $3 trillion USD.
4. **Calculating Percentage of French GDP**:
- French GDP (nominal) in 2023 was approximately $3.1 trillion USD.
Percentage of French GDP = (Total compensation amount for all CFA nations / French GDP) * 100
Percentage of French GDP = ($3 trillion / $3.1 trillion) * 100
Percentage of French GDP ≈ 96.77%
Therefore, compensating all CFA nations collectively, based on the estimated average figures, would require approximately 96.77% of French GDP. This calculation provides a perspective on the scale of compensation relative to the economic output of France.
To estimate the margin of error or the confidence interval around the previous calculation regarding the percentage of French GDP required to compensate all CFA nations, we consider the following factors and assumptions:
1. **Assumptions and Data Sources**: The calculation is based on average GDP, population, and compensation estimates for CFA nations. Variability in these factors can impact the accuracy of the result.
2. **Uncertainty in GDP Figures**: GDP figures can fluctuate annually and are subject to revisions by statistical agencies. The nominal GDP used here may vary from future updates.
3. **Estimation of Compensation**: The $200 billion per average CFA nation and 15 CFA nations assumption introduces variability due to differences in economic performance and policies across nations.
4. **Methodological Assumptions**: The methodology used assumes averages and simplifications, which may not fully capture the complexity and variability inherent in economic data.
Given these considerations, a reasonable approach to estimate the margin of error or confidence interval (CI) could be:
- **Confidence Level**: Estimate the uncertainty with a 95% confidence level (which is standard in statistical analyses):
- This implies that if the calculations were repeated many times, 95% of the time, the true value would fall within the calculated range.
- **Calculation of Confidence Interval**:
To calculate a confidence interval, we'd typically need more specific statistical distributions or data variations across the CFA nations. However, based on the complexity and assumptions involved, a rough estimation could suggest a margin of error of approximately ±5% to ±10% around the estimated percentage of French GDP required.
If we estimated 96.77% of French GDP as required, a ±5% margin of error would suggest the actual range could reasonably be between 91.77% and 101.77% of French GDP.
Please note, these are illustrative examples and the actual margin of error could vary based on specific data updates and methodological refinements. For precise statistical confidence intervals, more detailed analysis and specific data variability would be needed.