Thank you gentlemen for this insightful conversation. It is striking to learn how the world has progressed in the last 100years and to see how the older regimes/countries are desperately trying to hold on to the past while claiming to be far more valid, powerful and successful then others. They are willing to do unthinkable damage to keep the status quo.
There’s a very fast growing fascism in Russia. If the Russian Army is not defeated or weakened, there’s going to be a big problem in Europe and in the world.
Indeed, interestingly, the largest article, by far, on fascism in Encyclopedia Britannica is the Russian article. There are articles on many other countries but no mention of Ukraine! (because < 2-3% support for that htere). I can't paste the link as the comment gets zapped but google "Encyclopedia Britannica Russia Fascism" the first hit will be that article!
Modern ruzzia currently copy-paste' ing german An.schluss... Believe it or not. Worst thing is that all of them decent Europeans were caught up naked in the process...
Love to hear his insights…could listen to your conversation for hours. Thank you to you both🙏 It would be fantastic if Mr. Satter & Mr. Pomerantsev have a talk on your channel💖
Ilya Ponomarev, the only politician to vote against the annexation of Crimea, went to Ukraine after he was dismissed. Some of his interviews are on RUclips and he talks about the partisans in Russia. He is part of that movement.
Good conversation again. I also found 'Insights from Ukraine and Russia' said it well today: "sooner or later, russian soldiers will realize that the law in Russia exists only for those who follow it".
I studied ' 1984 ' in 1983 and it was truly scary book...for a long time we seemed to go further away from Orwells vision...but unfortunately the Russian psyche has bubbled away underneath out of site ...with Putins values very much in the style of Stalin ..now Orwells book never looked so inciteful with control on information and history being re written
Fascinating analysis - '[Putin] came to power with an invasion, seizing Crimea boosted his popularity, so another easy invasion would consolidate his position' ... the perils of 'a short successful war' going awry escaped him. But even more terrifying is the thought that had the invasion gone as planned, what would the next steps have been after a couple of years. Excellent interview, thanks.
Yet again. Well thought out, information dense content, verbal eloquence, and a nuanced assessment. Brilliant. Thanks. Russian will is on test here. Ukraine has all it needs, but I feel Russia's wavering, which is an effective death-knell. Whichever way, pootie is up shit Creek, paddless. Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦
Fab podcast. Why so few subscribers? Content and guests on this channel are on another level. So enlightening! Info on here tallies up pretty well with the inside russia and Perun channel. 👍🏻😀🇬🇧
A most excellent interview, thanks again Jonathan.❤ What's happening in 🇷🇺 is mercurial, & influx, these are homegrown dissidents within the Rodiña, it's been a long time coming, but finally they are gaining a much needed traction. Also, interesting of note, is the buddy-buddy situation between The Chef, & fascist Dugin, & their combined disdain of SadGirkin - I'm on the edge of my seat watching that bit unfold🍿. Tempus fugit ⏳️
I agree with Mr Satter's assesment that in the end, even though there are multi-factorial reasons at play as you initimated John, but in the end this was just all aboiut regime preservation, but there would have been many secondary benefits had that cretin in the Kremlin pulled it off. Vladislav Vexler also thinks the same as Mr Satter re: Regime Preservation. Was good to hear this "old hand" at Russia journalism again. Great stuff as always!!
Clearly, it is going to become much worse, for much longer than we in the West had hoped … I pray we are resolute & Hold Fast in our support of Ukraine 🇺🇦
From 42:34 till the end: YES!!!! "What determined it (the start of the invasion) was the simple greed and lust for power of very degenerated people" and your reply ,,That's a good counter to the big geopolitical arguments you still hear, which to me don't hold any water". I sometimes watch Peter Zeihan (there are many many more of such analysts with different theories which all don't hold any water) and he often talks about how Russia had to invade because it needs to close the geographical access points (somwhere in Poland and Romania) from Europe into Russia... And I always think: Can I really be the only one who thinks that this and similar theories are just nonsense? In the case of Zeihan: Russia has the most nukes in the world, so whoever tries to invade it from no matter where (and how "flat" the terrain is. Yes, Zeihan really thinks the terrains flatness matters), is not going to come out of this victorious, hence no one is going to invade Russia militarily and his theory is refuted. Here in Germany most main stream commentators are still unsure about what really made Putin invade. Because they don't know, they spent much of their time refusing conspiracy theories like: NATO provoking Russia, Great Brotherly Nations which need to be reunited, Children being burned in Donbass, Putin being "forced" to invade by radicals in the Kremlin, Russia needing to secure natural ressources in Donbass in order to economically survive... But in Germany most sound commentators never come up for a plausible reason themselves. I think they should watch the last 1.5 minutes of this conversation! It's simple, logic, understandable argument and I think this is precisely (or at the very least 99%) the reason all of this is happening.
Putin was alarmed by the democratic process in Belarus in the year 2020. He swore to himself that something like that will never happen to him. The solution he found inside his head, was to start a new war. It is not about getting raw materials, it is not about NATO, it is not even much about geopolitics. It is just about maintaining power inside Russia and a war is the best way to install a full fledged police state, to put all opposition in prison.
I find Telegram interesting, because some of the channels remain critical. The sense of the panopticon is there. But as I told my husband, while I would love to interview some of these people, there is no way we could travel there, not even with a pink passport. For those not in the know, diplomatic papers. One in particular has changed from a fan, to a critic. I worry about him, that empathy, even if at distance. But I wonder how long until silence falls across Telegram as well.
I heard an expert break this down - of the 20 main Russian telegram channels, 18 could be classed as ‘turbo patriots’ - and some are critical of the government… but unfortunately they believe the war is not been pursued aggressively enough!
@@SiliconCurtain yes, that’s exactly part of it. Igor Girkin comes to mind. But there are a few liberal channels,that to my shock, continue to operate. My notes are groaning.
"Our state is similar to a cancer cell - with its messianism and expansionism, its totalitarian suppression of dissent, the authoritarian structure of power, with a total absence of public control in the most important decisions in domestic and foreign policy, a closed society that does not inform its citizens of anything substantial, closed to the outside world, without freedom of travel or the exchange of information." -A. Sakharov
Staying so late in Russia after US authorities asked that every American leave is unfair to all. Making yourself a target and martyr and expecting the US to bargain for your release is wrong.
Hello from New Zealand. It's getting bad up there. I've heard there claiming there peoples homes and property of they don't fight or bow down like a servant. I've got one laugh but won't put it down . The big thing is where not not countys with little gangs mate, where a well organized group of trained warriors😊. It's best to fold your cards cause there's a lot of hatered out here.the choice is yours.
To find truth, we question facts. When we stop asking what’s true or believing we can, we may start believing in lies. Even when lies become reality, the truth still exists. Even the question “Who knows what’s true?” Is a plea for an answer. When you ask for an answer, the one you want to hear may not be the truth and if we believe truth is only a show than it’s controlled by those who make the biggest spectacle. Be wary of anyone drawing attention to tell you what’s real or true because the more they fight for that attention, the more likely they are trying to keep you from looking somewhere else. Look up or down or neither, we are supposed to have a choice and what is easiest is rarely what is best for anyone. Beware of hostility and aggression toward truth or the questioning of facts. Know that magical thinking always involves a contradiction of logic. Beware of anyone that claims to be a prophet or sole purveyor of truth or who limits opposing arguments. All arguments have multiple sides and anyone who says they don’t denies that. Be wary of anyone who reacts harshly, violently or emotionally toward even the smallest challenge of what is or isn’t true and be wary of any supposed truth that promotes an emotional reaction before logic. This is and has always been a war on reality, so of course they want to take away anyone who asks for the truth.
The distance between your work and broadsheet journalists in western media, is notable (as in Astronomical Units). U.S. coverage of Ukrainian cultural erasure and ethnic genocide at the hands of Putin, specifically in long form journalism ranging from The New York Times, Foreign Affairs and a majority of DC international think tanks such as CSIS, prove woefully insufficient. Individuals or entities attempting to come to grips with the conditions on the ground in Ukraine, including context, are provided powerpoint presentation. As the U.S. is largely unaware of the nature of the conflict and the objectives of Vladimir Putin or how it coincides with events in the United States and elsewhere. An example is found in a candidate for the U.S. presidency, Governor of Florida, recently stated "It is merely a territorial dispute." Staying glued to your detailed and informally robed investigative interviews, the circles are becoming much more concentric. It is starting to feel like a task force daily brief commissioned by a legislative body (in a good way).
Many U.S. citizens are receiving disinformation with a number of media and print outlets describing what is going on in Ukraine using multiple narrative forms bereft of facts. Whether it is de-Nazification, a bioweapons lab, or some other nonsense. Nearly 35% of the U.S. has been fed Putin's propaganda and believe it. This includes people seated in the U.S. congress. Another portion of the population, about 20%, do not think the U.S. involvement overseas is warranted for a number of reasons. I would estimate that about 30% of the U.S. population know more than a little about the situation but do not understand Putin's goal of eradicating Ukrainians from Ukraine and his goal of reaching the Atlantic Ocean. As Putin has indicated the Slavic states are on his list of military adventures. The rest of the U.S. is either disinterested in anything outside of the U.S. or do not care about foreign relations regardless of the country involved, unless it is Israel.
@@SiliconCurtain Hopefully the channel will receive more attention. I see you are at about 28K subscriptions. I'd venture to say if the number were closer to say 200,000 or more, the level and quality of support for Ukraine could tilt the scales completely to Ukraine's benefit. Having started in March of this year, I'd guess it is possible to exceed that number.
17:00 this section that discusses journalists needing to understand the country they report on: *_Blisteringly Fundamental!_* Unfortunately, if the news doesn't happen in the top _N_ western European and Pacific rim countries countries, either (1) it doesn't get reported, or (2) some journalist gets flown in to report until the interest fades. In the 2nd case the reporting omits all local/regional context. In the case of an earthquake, not much is lost (magnitude X, so many people, so many buildings, rescue efforts, etc.) In politics, however, at least 50% is lost. It's almost a false image that's painted from such reporting. As one familiar with Turkey, I often wince when I hear reports about it. (And there are significant movements afoot there that don't seem to be appreciated!) Worse, when the US went into Afghanistan, I got the sense at the time that _very few_ people in the US government had any kind of real appreciation for Afghan culture & society, which is critical for navigating a situation like US for themselves into. I didn't expect the Army to be particularly familiar with Afghan grassroots particulars, but the State Department also seemed naive. (I recall impressions, not details) As Mr/Prof Satter is at JHU/SIS I hope he drills this concept into every class.
Who was the Ukrainian politician who disagreed with you that KGB/FSB agents weren't the sharpest pencils in the drawer? Their agents don't seem particularly sharp to me considering their results on Ukraine.
He was referring to the old KGB - and indeed they had some sharp (but cynical) brains. The interesting point he made was that Putin was far below the usual intellectual calibre of their recruits…
What an echo chamber interview. And amazingly, both parties would characterize this as an in depth discussion. Keep in mind, I am not opposing much of what was said less 1 point. Russia’s greatest internal enemy, possibly an unknown, is the one the Chinese IDed as their man in Russia during the recent State visit. Joining an organizations like the EU and NATO it is like getting a store credit card. You can use it at anytime and cancel it at anytime, but only at that store. This is the freedom part. If you run up too much debt, you get pushed to a 3RD party collector like the EDB or the IMF where debt is forcibly structured. This only happens if you fail to pay your monthly minimum payment. Borrowing from an authoritarian State is like getting a credit line from a loan shark OR getting a “free” bag of smack from a drug dealer. Once in, you cannot get out. China will supply consumable weapons, take natural resources in trade, and then want those territories filled with resources. China will want their Russian puppet leader, and if he cannot control Russia for China’s benefit, then China will take territories. The story this discussion should have centered on is Putin State visit to China next year. Putin will die in China from “natural medical” causes. This is so the Chinese puppet in Russia can execute a Coup. The Chinese will push their Puppet to end the war at all costs. A humiliated Russia helps the new Puppet government. They will surrender top Russian War Criminals too. This will be a backdoor purge of Putin loyalists. Some Oligarchs will be thrown in too. This allows for new promotions of loyalists. The goal is to end sanctions. China does not want to rearm Russia. It wants Russia to buy all its consumer goods. This will start with 5K networking for all of Russia. Closely behind it, is getting foreign firms to built a high tech pipeline from Siberia to China. China needs water. Part of Far East Russia will be used as a Chinese watershed. Think of an upstate NY watershed suppling all of northern China. Finally, China needs Russians to be a Trojan Horse to spy on the West. After sanctions are removed, Russia will be received back into Europe as a trading partner. This allows technology stealing. Russia will be a space partner with the US and Europe. Again, this is to steal concepts and technology. These are the topics the discussion could have explored. There may have been divergence of opinion. This would have opened the dialogue in ways other guests have illuminated. Oh well, maybe next time.
You raise some interesting points. I am trying to get some experts on Chinese foreign policy onto the channel - as the long term game China is playing is fascinating…
What does your comment have to do with the discussion in the podcast? "The story this discussion should have centered on is Putin State visit to China next year" Why should they talk about this? Furthermore, I think much of what you wrote is not correct and/or purely speculative. I quote you: "The story this discussion should have centered on is Putin State visit to China next year. Putin will die in China from “natural medical” causes". How do you know that? It's still 8 month till 2024, a lot can happen and Putin might even visit China this year. But even if he visits China: Why on earth should he die there?
@@mariotolf8616 Most Silicon Curtain discussions have more than a few nuggets worth the listen. This one was too much of both people agreeing and restating known material. I did not find a nugget and the interviewee has a mind worth probing beyond a comfort zone. Even post war Russian politics may have had nuggets. I will answer you specifically about Putin going to China next year. Purely speculation? Most intelligence is speculation. This is true even in battle plans. This is why you need information collectors such as Scouts, frontline Units, or higher Command assets to confirm assumptions. If you war game a battle plan, these critical areas are DPS (Decision Points). To get Chinese perspective you need to develop more questions. You could retort, but what led to that conclusion about Putin traveling to China? There are 2 reasons. Assumption 1, China makes moves but is risk adverse. It has lost battles to Vietnam and skirmishes with India. Additionally, China dabbles in capitalism without really understanding it. It has a huge housing Ponzi scheme crisis. It has a Covid health crisis which will not go away. Authoritarian regimes all act the same way. If you cannot get out of a bad situation, create a war distraction. Nevertheless, Taiwan is just far away to make forceful capture extremely difficult and risky. President Xi Jinping needed a Plan B. Putin handed him one. This is Xi’s thinking. China does not make losing bets. Wall Street calls this catching a falling knife. You have to get to the bottom, the lowest prices before investing. This is why China is waiting to aid Russia. On the other hand, the last thing China needs is an unstable Russia. If Putin loses on the battlefield big, Russia will be unstable. This is why Xi made a nothing state visit. His trusted underlings had many meeting with Russian leadership aside from Putin and his closest Advisors. China was looking for a viable, Chinese friendly, potential President. At the last minute, seemingly as an afterthought, President Xi offered Putin a state visit to China. What does China want from Russia? 1-A peaceful transfer of power to a Russia puppet President, like Belarus President Lukaschenko is to Russia. 2-China wants to end the sanction on Russia in support of Chinese trade. Only a new Russian President can end the war. He will also send to war criminals to the West/Ukraine, Russia’s top Military leaders and maybe as low as Colonel in some select Units. These 100 or so will be a purge on the Russian side and an end to sanctions on the Western side. Russia will kick in $1 trillion to the $350 billion in already frozen assets. All Russian troops will Ukraine, including Crimea. 3-Part of this deal will allow international shipping, Chinese ships, access to the Black Sea. 4-China needs the sanctions lifted so Western companies can quickly build gas/oil/water pipelines from Siberia and the Far East of Russia. China wants to use Siberia as water source the way NYC uses upstate NY State. 5-China has determined Putin in a once in a century Russian leader. He came to power under unique circumstances during the collapse of the Soviet Union. Anyone replacing Putin will be weak for 20 years uncertain power games. However, a Chinese backed candidate would emerge very fast with the right backing. This is the bet President Xi will make because risk is low and reward high. This Russian puppet will 5G wire all of Russia will Chinese electronics as payment for oil/gas/water. Chinese manufactured goods will swamp the Russia market. Look, it this does not work as planned, China will invade Far Eastern Russia. So why will Putin die in China? It’s the only variable not determined. When Putin is out of Russia on a state visit, is the best time to execute a Coup. Of course a “natural death” should go over as believable since he has ill health. This removes the Delta. PS: I am a school trained Armor and then MI Officer. I retired a Brigade S2. Critical thinking using Most Probable and Most Dangerous scenarios is part of a training mindset.
Thank you gentlemen for this insightful conversation. It is striking to learn how the world has progressed in the last 100years and to see how the older regimes/countries are desperately trying to hold on to the past while claiming to be far more valid, powerful and successful then others. They are willing to do unthinkable damage to keep the status quo.
V good interview
Excellent always.
👍
There’s a very fast growing fascism in Russia. If the Russian Army is not defeated or weakened, there’s going to be a big problem in Europe and in the world.
This is the message we need to keep repeating.
Musk approves of Russia and Putin! He let Putin and cohorts onto Twitter! No to freedom of speech, yes to Totalitarianism!
I’m sure a lot of European governments still haven’t understood just how perilous these changes in Russia are for European society
Indeed, interestingly, the largest article, by far, on fascism in Encyclopedia Britannica is the Russian article. There are articles on many other countries but no mention of Ukraine! (because < 2-3% support for that htere). I can't paste the link as the comment gets zapped but google "Encyclopedia Britannica Russia Fascism" the first hit will be that article!
Modern ruzzia currently copy-paste' ing german An.schluss... Believe it or not. Worst thing is that all of them decent Europeans were caught up naked in the process...
This is a great podcast / series
👍
Love to hear his insights…could listen to your conversation for hours. Thank you to you both🙏 It would be fantastic if Mr. Satter & Mr. Pomerantsev have a talk on your channel💖
👍
@@SiliconCurtain
👋😽🇯🇵🤝🇬🇧
Another top-notch interview. Thank you!
Really interesting. Thank you.
Ilya Ponomarev, the only politician to vote against the annexation of Crimea, went to Ukraine after he was dismissed. Some of his interviews are on RUclips and he talks about the partisans in Russia. He is part of that movement.
He is someone I am trying to get on the channel…
When you do…because I follow some of the resistance channels in Russia, and the NRA is the umbrella organization.
@@nadinabbott3991 is something missing in your post? You say "When you do," but the rest of the comment is a "because" clause. There's no main clause.
@@77thTrombone when he interviews Ilya
@@nadinabbott3991 thanks for assisting a slow one!
Brilliant
👍
David Satter is a man who sits well above most others. Thank you.
👍
Good conversation again. I also found 'Insights from Ukraine and Russia' said it well today: "sooner or later, russian soldiers will realize that the law in Russia exists only for those who follow it".
👍 laws are for the ‘little people’ in Russia…
I studied ' 1984 ' in 1983 and it was truly scary book...for a long time we seemed to go further away from Orwells vision...but unfortunately the Russian psyche has bubbled away underneath out of site ...with Putins values very much in the style of Stalin ..now Orwells book never looked so inciteful with control on information and history being re written
Fascinating analysis - '[Putin] came to power with an invasion, seizing Crimea boosted his popularity, so another easy invasion would consolidate his position' ... the perils of 'a short successful war' going awry escaped him. But even more terrifying is the thought that had the invasion gone as planned, what would the next steps have been after a couple of years. Excellent interview, thanks.
👍
Yet again. Well thought out, information dense content, verbal eloquence, and a nuanced assessment.
Brilliant. Thanks.
Russian will is on test here. Ukraine has all it needs, but I feel Russia's wavering, which is an effective death-knell.
Whichever way, pootie is up shit Creek, paddless.
Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦
Slava Ukraine….& Crimea/Dunbass is Ukraine..it’s International Law …..💙💛💙
👍
Fab podcast. Why so few subscribers? Content and guests on this channel are on another level. So enlightening!
Info on here tallies up pretty well with the inside russia and Perun channel.
👍🏻😀🇬🇧
👍
That's a rather severe first image 00:00 flashing at me! Takes me back to being frightened by star trek when I was a kid
Ha, I didn't even catch that! 😆
A most excellent interview, thanks again Jonathan.❤
What's happening in 🇷🇺 is mercurial, & influx, these are homegrown dissidents within the Rodiña, it's been a long time coming, but finally they are gaining a much needed traction. Also, interesting of note, is the buddy-buddy situation between The Chef, & fascist Dugin, & their combined disdain of SadGirkin - I'm on the edge of my seat watching that bit unfold🍿.
Tempus fugit ⏳️
👍
Dugin is a Bolshevik.
Fantastic content. I continue sharing across my social channels. I think it’s important to make quality content available to wider masses.
👍👍👍
I agree with Mr Satter's assesment that in the end, even though there are multi-factorial reasons at play as you initimated John, but in the end this was just all aboiut regime preservation, but there would have been many secondary benefits had that cretin in the Kremlin pulled it off. Vladislav Vexler also thinks the same as Mr Satter re: Regime Preservation. Was good to hear this "old hand" at Russia journalism again. Great stuff as always!!
Clearly, it is going to become much worse, for much longer than we in the West had hoped … I pray we are resolute & Hold Fast in our support of Ukraine 🇺🇦
👍👍👍
From 42:34 till the end: YES!!!! "What determined it (the start of the invasion) was the simple greed and lust for power of very degenerated people" and your reply ,,That's a good counter to the big geopolitical arguments you still hear, which to me don't hold any water".
I sometimes watch Peter Zeihan (there are many many more of such analysts with different theories which all don't hold any water) and he often talks about how Russia had to invade because it needs to close the geographical access points (somwhere in Poland and Romania) from Europe into Russia...
And I always think: Can I really be the only one who thinks that this and similar theories are just nonsense? In the case of Zeihan: Russia has the most nukes in the world, so whoever tries to invade it from no matter where (and how "flat" the terrain is. Yes, Zeihan really thinks the terrains flatness matters), is not going to come out of this victorious, hence no one is going to invade Russia militarily and his theory is refuted.
Here in Germany most main stream commentators are still unsure about what really made Putin invade. Because they don't know, they spent much of their time refusing conspiracy theories like: NATO provoking Russia, Great Brotherly Nations which need to be reunited, Children being burned in Donbass, Putin being "forced" to invade by radicals in the Kremlin, Russia needing to secure natural ressources in Donbass in order to economically survive...
But in Germany most sound commentators never come up for a plausible reason themselves.
I think they should watch the last 1.5 minutes of this conversation! It's simple, logic, understandable argument and I think this is precisely (or at the very least 99%) the reason all of this is happening.
Putin was alarmed by the democratic process in Belarus in the year 2020. He swore to himself that something like that will never happen to him. The solution he found inside his head, was to start a new war.
It is not about getting raw materials, it is not about NATO, it is not even much about geopolitics. It is just about maintaining power inside Russia and a war is the best way to install a full fledged police state, to put all opposition in prison.
You take time to comment. Respect!
@@SlobodanSchumacher Thanks!
💛💙💜💙💛
organised wishful thinking ... a very true description of west attitude towards russia and other similar regimes.
I find Telegram interesting, because some of the channels remain critical. The sense of the panopticon is there. But as I told my husband, while I would love to interview some of these people, there is no way we could travel there, not even with a pink passport. For those not in the know, diplomatic papers.
One in particular has changed from a fan, to a critic. I worry about him, that empathy, even if at distance. But I wonder how long until silence falls across Telegram as well.
I heard an expert break this down - of the 20 main Russian telegram channels, 18 could be classed as ‘turbo patriots’ - and some are critical of the government… but unfortunately they believe the war is not been pursued aggressively enough!
@@SiliconCurtain yes, that’s exactly part of it. Igor Girkin comes to mind. But there are a few liberal channels,that to my shock, continue to operate.
My notes are groaning.
"Our state is similar to a cancer cell - with its messianism and expansionism, its totalitarian suppression of dissent, the authoritarian structure of power, with a total absence of public control in the most important decisions in domestic and foreign policy, a closed society that does not inform its citizens of anything substantial, closed to the outside world, without freedom of travel or the exchange of information." -A. Sakharov
I'd be more surprised if Russia allowed any free speech haha
"Starts to clamp down" lol
Staying so late in Russia after US authorities asked that every American leave is unfair to all. Making yourself a target and martyr and expecting the US to bargain for your release is wrong.
Hello from New Zealand. It's getting bad up there. I've heard there claiming there peoples homes and property of they don't fight or bow down like a servant. I've got one laugh but won't put it down . The big thing is where not not countys with little gangs mate, where a well organized group of trained warriors😊. It's best to fold your cards cause there's a lot of hatered out here.the choice is yours.
To find truth, we question facts. When we stop asking what’s true or believing we can, we may start believing in lies. Even when lies become reality, the truth still exists. Even the question “Who knows what’s true?” Is a plea for an answer. When you ask for an answer, the one you want to hear may not be the truth and if we believe truth is only a show than it’s controlled by those who make the biggest spectacle. Be wary of anyone drawing attention to tell you what’s real or true because the more they fight for that attention, the more likely they are trying to keep you from looking somewhere else. Look up or down or neither, we are supposed to have a choice and what is easiest is rarely what is best for anyone. Beware of hostility and aggression toward truth or the questioning of facts. Know that magical thinking always involves a contradiction of logic. Beware of anyone that claims to be a prophet or sole purveyor of truth or who limits opposing arguments. All arguments have multiple sides and anyone who says they don’t denies that. Be wary of anyone who reacts harshly, violently or emotionally toward even the smallest challenge of what is or isn’t true and be wary of any supposed truth that promotes an emotional reaction before logic. This is and has always been a war on reality, so of course they want to take away anyone who asks for the truth.
The distance between your work and broadsheet journalists in western media, is notable (as in Astronomical Units). U.S. coverage of Ukrainian cultural erasure and ethnic genocide at the hands of Putin, specifically in long form journalism ranging from The New York Times, Foreign Affairs and a majority of DC international think tanks such as CSIS, prove woefully insufficient. Individuals or entities attempting to come to grips with the conditions on the ground in Ukraine, including context, are provided powerpoint presentation. As the U.S. is largely unaware of the nature of the conflict and the objectives of Vladimir Putin or how it coincides with events in the United States and elsewhere. An example is found in a candidate for the U.S. presidency, Governor of Florida, recently stated "It is merely a territorial dispute."
Staying glued to your detailed and informally robed investigative interviews, the circles are becoming much more concentric. It is starting to feel like a task force daily brief commissioned by a legislative body (in a good way).
I find that difficult to believe. What are you referring to? I'm not American, so I could easily have missed something.
Every country will have their liars and one of them is Ron DeSantis.
👍 so glad all the work on the channel, and the incredible work of the guests, is appreciated.
Many U.S. citizens are receiving disinformation with a number of media and print outlets describing what is going on in Ukraine using multiple narrative forms bereft of facts. Whether it is de-Nazification, a bioweapons lab, or some other nonsense. Nearly 35% of the U.S. has been fed Putin's propaganda and believe it. This includes people seated in the U.S. congress.
Another portion of the population, about 20%, do not think the U.S. involvement overseas is warranted for a number of reasons. I would estimate that about 30% of the U.S. population know more than a little about the situation but do not understand Putin's goal of eradicating Ukrainians from Ukraine and his goal of reaching the Atlantic Ocean. As Putin has indicated the Slavic states are on his list of military adventures.
The rest of the U.S. is either disinterested in anything outside of the U.S. or do not care about foreign relations regardless of the country involved, unless it is Israel.
@@SiliconCurtain Hopefully the channel will receive more attention. I see you are at about 28K subscriptions. I'd venture to say if the number were closer to say 200,000 or more, the level and quality of support for Ukraine could tilt the scales completely to Ukraine's benefit. Having started in March of this year, I'd guess it is possible to exceed that number.
Arrest of French guy in UK for speaking against the war. Any news on that?
17:00 this section that discusses journalists needing to understand the country they report on: *_Blisteringly Fundamental!_*
Unfortunately, if the news doesn't happen in the top _N_ western European and Pacific rim countries countries, either (1) it doesn't get reported, or (2) some journalist gets flown in to report until the interest fades. In the 2nd case the reporting omits all local/regional context. In the case of an earthquake, not much is lost (magnitude X, so many people, so many buildings, rescue efforts, etc.) In politics, however, at least 50% is lost. It's almost a false image that's painted from such reporting. As one familiar with Turkey, I often wince when I hear reports about it. (And there are significant movements afoot there that don't seem to be appreciated!)
Worse, when the US went into Afghanistan, I got the sense at the time that _very few_ people in the US government had any kind of real appreciation for Afghan culture & society, which is critical for navigating a situation like US for themselves into. I didn't expect the Army to be particularly familiar with Afghan grassroots particulars, but the State Department also seemed naive. (I recall impressions, not details)
As Mr/Prof Satter is at JHU/SIS I hope he drills this concept into every class.
Who was the Ukrainian politician who disagreed with you that KGB/FSB agents weren't the sharpest pencils in the drawer? Their agents don't seem particularly sharp to me considering their results on Ukraine.
He was referring to the old KGB - and indeed they had some sharp (but cynical) brains. The interesting point he made was that Putin was far below the usual intellectual calibre of their recruits…
@@SiliconCurtain Thanks!
The word "Kremlinology" was used, this is incorrect sir, the correct word is; "Demonology." No, not kidding.
What an echo chamber interview. And amazingly, both parties would characterize this as an in depth discussion. Keep in mind, I am not opposing much of what was said less 1 point. Russia’s greatest internal enemy, possibly an unknown, is the one the Chinese IDed as their man in Russia during the recent State visit.
Joining an organizations like the EU and NATO it is like getting a store credit card. You can use it at anytime and cancel it at anytime, but only at that store. This is the freedom part. If you run up too much debt, you get pushed to a 3RD party collector like the EDB or the IMF where debt is forcibly structured. This only happens if you fail to pay your monthly minimum payment.
Borrowing from an authoritarian State is like getting a credit line from a loan shark OR getting a “free” bag of smack from a drug dealer. Once in, you cannot get out. China will supply consumable weapons, take natural resources in trade, and then want those territories filled with resources. China will want their Russian puppet leader, and if he cannot control Russia for China’s benefit, then China will take territories.
The story this discussion should have centered on is Putin State visit to China next year. Putin will die in China from “natural medical” causes. This is so the Chinese puppet in Russia can execute a Coup. The Chinese will push their Puppet to end the war at all costs. A humiliated Russia helps the new Puppet government. They will surrender top Russian War Criminals too. This will be a backdoor purge of Putin loyalists. Some Oligarchs will be thrown in too. This allows for new promotions of loyalists.
The goal is to end sanctions. China does not want to rearm Russia. It wants Russia to buy all its consumer goods. This will start with 5K networking for all of Russia. Closely behind it, is getting foreign firms to built a high tech pipeline from Siberia to China. China needs water. Part of Far East Russia will be used as a Chinese watershed. Think of an upstate NY watershed suppling all of northern China.
Finally, China needs Russians to be a Trojan Horse to spy on the West. After sanctions are removed, Russia will be received back into Europe as a trading partner. This allows technology stealing. Russia will be a space partner with the US and Europe. Again, this is to steal concepts and technology.
These are the topics the discussion could have explored. There may have been divergence of opinion. This would have opened the dialogue in ways other guests have illuminated. Oh well, maybe next time.
You raise some interesting points. I am trying to get some experts on Chinese foreign policy onto the channel - as the long term game China is playing is fascinating…
What does your comment have to do with the discussion in the podcast? "The story this discussion should have centered on is Putin State visit to China next year" Why should they talk about this?
Furthermore, I think much of what you wrote is not correct and/or purely speculative. I quote you: "The story this discussion should have centered on is Putin State visit to China next year. Putin will die in China from “natural medical” causes".
How do you know that? It's still 8 month till 2024, a lot can happen and Putin might even visit China this year.
But even if he visits China: Why on earth should he die there?
Your first sentence is a click-bait to read your comment, which basically consists of speculations that are frankly not even highly likely to happen.
A very interesting take on it all! Yes, strangely enough I can see something as wild as that happening.
@@mariotolf8616 Most Silicon Curtain discussions have more than a few nuggets worth the listen. This one was too much of both people agreeing and restating known material. I did not find a nugget and the interviewee has a mind worth probing beyond a comfort zone. Even post war Russian politics may have had nuggets.
I will answer you specifically about Putin going to China next year. Purely speculation? Most intelligence is speculation. This is true even in battle plans. This is why you need information collectors such as Scouts, frontline Units, or higher Command assets to confirm assumptions. If you war game a battle plan, these critical areas are DPS (Decision Points). To get Chinese perspective you need to develop more questions.
You could retort, but what led to that conclusion about Putin traveling to China?
There are 2 reasons. Assumption 1, China makes moves but is risk adverse. It has lost battles to Vietnam and skirmishes with India. Additionally, China dabbles in capitalism without really understanding it. It has a huge housing Ponzi scheme crisis. It has a Covid health crisis which will not go away. Authoritarian regimes all act the same way. If you cannot get out of a bad situation, create a war distraction.
Nevertheless, Taiwan is just far away to make forceful capture extremely difficult and risky.
President Xi Jinping needed a Plan B. Putin handed him one. This is Xi’s thinking. China does not make losing bets. Wall Street calls this catching a falling knife. You have to get to the bottom, the lowest prices before investing. This is why China is waiting to aid Russia.
On the other hand, the last thing China needs is an unstable Russia. If Putin loses on the battlefield big, Russia will be unstable. This is why Xi made a nothing state visit. His trusted underlings had many meeting with Russian leadership aside from Putin and his closest Advisors. China was looking for a viable, Chinese friendly, potential President. At the last minute, seemingly as an afterthought, President Xi offered Putin a state visit to China.
What does China want from Russia?
1-A peaceful transfer of power to a Russia puppet President, like Belarus President Lukaschenko is to Russia.
2-China wants to end the sanction on Russia in support of Chinese trade. Only a new Russian President can end the war. He will also send to war criminals to the West/Ukraine, Russia’s top Military leaders and maybe as low as Colonel in some select Units. These 100 or so will be a purge on the Russian side and an end to sanctions on the Western side. Russia will kick in $1 trillion to the $350 billion in already frozen assets. All Russian troops will Ukraine, including Crimea.
3-Part of this deal will allow international shipping, Chinese ships, access to the Black Sea.
4-China needs the sanctions lifted so Western companies can quickly build gas/oil/water pipelines from Siberia and the Far East of Russia. China wants to use Siberia as water source the way NYC uses upstate NY State.
5-China has determined Putin in a once in a century Russian leader. He came to power under unique circumstances during the collapse of the Soviet Union. Anyone replacing Putin will be weak for 20 years uncertain power games. However, a Chinese backed candidate would emerge very fast with the right backing. This is the bet President Xi will make because risk is low and reward high. This Russian puppet will 5G wire all of Russia will Chinese electronics as payment for oil/gas/water. Chinese manufactured goods will swamp the Russia market. Look, it this does not work as planned, China will invade Far Eastern Russia.
So why will Putin die in China? It’s the only variable not determined. When Putin is out of Russia on a state visit, is the best time to execute a Coup. Of course a “natural death” should go over as believable since he has ill health. This removes the Delta.
PS: I am a school trained Armor and then MI Officer. I retired a Brigade S2. Critical thinking using Most Probable and Most Dangerous scenarios is part of a training mindset.