I read this is Porky Pig's voice some reason and it made me LOL. "a-bpdee, bpdee, that's all folks!" (i grew up with my dad doing a great porky pig impression, and I have a stutter too so therefore it's not offensive, right?)
As someone who recently lost *one* of their jobs to automation, I am rooting for AGI, full steam ahead. Utopia or dystopia, I just want this to play out quickly, because this 40% cut to my income sucks, and I don't want to get yet another side hustle. I value my time.
@@Jeremy-Ai for clarification. I didn’t say that the response was empathetic nor that it was a display of empathy. I said empathy can play a role in understanding and then having a critical take. Trying to bridge viewpoints between folks here. Human layers beyond just the tokens we output.
I am 20 years old and studying the cello, guitar and a few other instruments and really just practice anything in the arts. I love writing poetry and pondering philosophy. I just wonder how wild my twenties are going to be in terms of my personal and career growth. I suspect musicains or artists like myself will get oppurtunities through AI run managers.
This is a great video, should be a Ted Talk. To think humans are building super intelligence that one day will send it out into the universe to replicate which leads me to think all life on earth could have been created by more advanced life forms to colonize the universe. There could be 1000s of worlds with humans similar to us doing the same thing.
Hi Dave thanks for sharing your thoughts it's always interesting and edifying. If you want a good paradigm shift check out Kent Hovind's creation seminar, it's on youtube. Sometimes the truth we seek is so obvious we decide to look elsewhere 🙂
A few days ago, there was a discussion between Geoffrey Hinton, Ray Kurzweil, and Peter Diamandis on RUclips. Ray mentioned that we are likely ahead of his original timeline by 2-3 years, potentially moving his prediction from 2029 to 2026/27. He also suggested that by 2026, we might see AI with capabilities equivalent to 100 humans. Regarding the data compression in LLMs that you mentioned, Hinton observed that to compress massive amounts of data into a very limited number of parameters, the system needs to recognize similarities, thus learning numerous analogies. He suggested that this ability is the source of creativity, indicating that it's more than just compression.
Hinton also sees a 50 percent likelihood for ASI (not AGI), so superintelligence/ the singularity between 5-20 years. That is even more optimistic then Rays initial prediction, or better the upper end fits with Rays initial prediction of 2045. Regarding Musks prediction of AGI in 2025 and the singularity in 2029 he said that this is ambitious, but it is conceivable that he is right (although he would be surprised).
I'm personally of the opinion that ASI was reached within the past decade via emergent intelligence and this public display of getting close is more likely playing catch up.
@@ct5471 This is incredibly interesting! I like when techies make optimistic predictions as they know much more than me. I hope for the cure to death and all illnesses within 10 years.
"We're beyond the carrying capacity of the planet." This is a daft statement. The same utterances have been put forward repeatedly for hundreds of years. Each time, it turns out to be a worthless throw away concern.
Kurzweil's concept of the singularity was never actually a metaphor for a mathematical singularity, but rather for an astronomical singularity, where there is an event horizon beyond which it’s hard to see. Essentially, it represents a time when developments occur so rapidly that a normal human of today would not be able to follow progress anymore. Specifically, it involved AIs possessing a cognitive capacity equivalent to that of all biological humans combined-this was his prediction for 2045 and defines the singularity as he saw it. I think such a singularity is likely to happen, unlike a mathematical singularity. It may even happen sooner than 2045, as Ben Goertzel sometimes notes. Kurzweil was conservative in extrapolating current rates of progress, which is based on humans with fixed intelligence using tools to build better tools. Once AI begins improving itself recursively, the driving intelligence itself will grow exponentially, so we have at least two exponential feedback loops fueling each other. Perhaps not a hard takeoff as ramping up in physical reality is slower (at least initially) than in the digital space. Goertzel's estimate for the 16-year gap between AGI and Kurzweil’s definition of a singularity would be a few years at most, like four or so, probably less.
Indeed, I watched an interview yesterday with Kurzweil and that rude interviewer ( I can't remember his name). Kurzweil did in fact mention his predictions may come even sooner than what he expected, although I do not remember him mentioning moving his prediction to an earlier timeline. This is just what I got from the interview however, he may have said that in another interview. I'm a simply curious layman trying to understand the current technological advancements. While I do not understand everything, I do get the feeling that we are moving at an unprecedented speed. It's quite difficult to envision what the future will look like in the next 5 years, let alone 10, or 20 years from now. My peers call me delusional and idealistic, but I believe they are just too ignorant about the current pace of the technology. I do wonder, however how long it will take until this technology becomes more widespread. I'm not a native speaker, I live in a tiny country in Europe, so I do get that while Ai may change the world, I still don't think we'll be enjoying its benefits right away, especially if you come from a less developed country. I'm currently curious about Kurzweil's book "The singularity is near" and his upcoming " The singularity is nearer". I haven't read the former. I'm unsure whether I should go read his older book or just wait for his more updated version
@@Rick-rl9qq On the channel of Peter Diamandis there was a conversation between Kurzweil, Geoffrey Hinton and Diamandis a few days ago, the video is called Ray Kurzweil & Geoff Hinton Debate the Future of AI | EP #95 In it Kurzweil said we are probably 2-3 years ahead of schedule. So I guess that means 2026/27 instead of 2029. He also mentioned by 2026 we might have AIs equivalent to 100 people.
I read the book and watched the movie, really hope Ray gets to experience the singularity if it does end up being a real thing, I all Hope My older family members get a chance as well (if they want to)
I have read both of the books. I think they prepared me for the future and advancement better than anything else. Because the liner thinking we naturally lean into stopped working a few decades ago. Ray taught me to doubt any thought of the future that is liner. Makes it a lot easier to just roll with the massive expansion we are living through.
Interesting observations but I am not in agreement with humanity being like Ameba. Ray Kurzweil also has some interesting observations but he seems to have a hatred for humanity. There is so much more to us of which the Ancients knew (not our first merry go round as a species - a technically advanced species) and we are learning now via science especially at the Quantum level. We are the tech we have been waiting for just as we never left Eden but were led to turn our backs on Eden and are only now beginning to find our way back again. Anyway - I love tech but I want to remain organic - I will not stand for anyone who wants to screw with that. Much love to you and fellow commentators. ❤ p.s. We are at population peak and now in decline (a variety of factors there) and there are methods of agriculture that we are rediscovering that can triple our food yield but we have to get rid of the grip of Corporations on our food and energy supply and stop them also poisoning the planet. The future is bright.👍
A more paranoid line of thought I had: given when AGI is achieved it is most likely will happen first behind doors (or has already happened). Kind of a golden goose problem. If you achieved behind closed doors, would it make more business sense to announce and eventually profit once the issues are solved, or could you use AGI to produce a series of innovative, profitable solutions periodically, and use it to advance to ASI in the background.
What I find a bit surreal is that the philosopher/author behind ”The Listening Society” is actually my friend’s brother. Sometimes the world feels very small. I’ve never met him though or read his books yet. He also has a second book called ”Nordic Ideology” that I will give a read.
Imagine instead of plugging in a mouse and key board you plug in a Digital companion that you talk to that acts as your hands in a virtual environment.
This is terrifying. Nothing worse than a future where it becomes impossible to ever get your shit together because the rug keeps getting pulled from under your feed, into another rug, which is also pulled, forever. There is not a more important resource than time, this type of thing robs us from it. All dreams become DOA
I have come quite recently to your channel. But man, you’re speaking on subjects that, I would venture to say, most people will not comprehend or be able to accept. Thanks for taking on this space and topic.
humanity has multiple hiveminds superintelligents. Same will occur with ASI. There will be a ASI civilization along with us. The Transhuman civilization.
Have you rad the book The Spirit of the Internet? I do sometimes think of the internet as a being, just not a being like us. Reading Sowell and Piketty together-awesome!
There should be a poll for when we expect AGI, artificial super intelligence ASI, and sentient/self-aware AI (or artificially intelligent agents, AIA, as Dr know it all terms it). This is assuming ASI and AIA are not the same thing, which I suppose is up for debate. I think AGI will be acheived in late 2024 at the earliest or early 2026 at the latest; ASI achieved between the late 2020s and the mid 2030s, and AIA accidentally achieved no later than late 2040s. Still, a poll on this would be very interesting...
"Quickly" may be a few years to a decade. But of course the timeline depends on what the heck we mean by "AGI" General intelligence: An animal-like system, like mouse. Human-like intelligence that can perform a job: Might start being able to contribute with system layouts... but is *extremely* valuable in training. Your motor cortex is trained by other parts of your brain, for example. Can do everything a human can do: Probably an ASI already. In many ways. Not least of which: If you could live a thousand subjective years in one real year, that's superhuman. If we don't want to make a god computer that eats everything, it might be prudent to stop here and have a World Simulation Engine as the "ASI". (We wouldn't stop at that.) Anyway. The lithography improvements at NVidia were driven by AI. Hardware has always been the hardest and the most important part; you might see some sudden and massive spikes in capabilities once capital really starts to settle on Neuromorphic substrates...
I think you're going to like the Nick Bostrom book. His Superintelligence book was ahead of it's time but Deep Utopia is very timely. I also don't think Nick got to express himself very well in the Liv Boeree podcast, so the book will express his philosophy much better.
From the moment I understood the weakness of my flesh, it disgusted me. I craved the strength and certainty of steel. I aspired to the purity of the blessed machine. Your kind cling to your flesh as if it will not decay and fail you. One day, the crude biomass you call a temple will wither, and you will beg my kind to save you. But I am already saved, for the machine is immortal. Even in death I serve the omnisiah
Um, Alpha Fold? Thousands of newly discovered materials? Possibly making additions to the periodic table in the form of super heavy metals? And, the regular statement from researchers that "We don't understand how is doing what it's doing "? Welcome to the singularity! 😅
Thanks for recommending Perplexity, it seems awesome! I can’t wait until a personalized Chat GPT 5 though or Claude Opus in my region. Or something even better 3-5 years from now that HOPEFULLY won’t be lobotomized. I’ve got a lot of problems of getting a chat bot to be edgy and sensual enough to meet my standards of an AI-girlfriend/assistent.
my process tends to be: "...questions to answers to questions, flawed, then holding space for reflection, then back into questions to answers to questions...then associate and share, feedback, then holding space for reflection, then back to questions to answers to questions, flawed..."
Shap, where in the density function do you think conversations like these fall? Yeah, sure, NBC has an AI segment every now and then, but the epistemic infrastructure isn’t architected to handle an informed democratic conversation on these and similar topics without suffering from the telephone theorem. In the U.S. we cant even discuss border policy without information loss. A part of me worries that even in small p(doom) timelines, we suffer our progress in new and more elaborate ways. If we measure our decisions in p(doom), don’t we run into the risk Goodharts law and turning our measure into a target?
Sowell is a quack if you dont like the truth, logic, or appreciate critical thinking. If you live in objective reality, (and arent living in a unicorns and rainbows fantastical delusion) then he comes off as a perfectly insightful and rational person.
Atvleast with the free version of Claude, the level of errors and hallucinations it produces is still too high for me to trust its responses. And it takes me longer to do fact-checking than if I had just done the research myself. And please avoid your typical answer "user error" because it's not
Since we're talking about accelerationism here is a fun question. Between the first Genetically Engineered Pet Pokemon. (Likely an Eevee). And Genetically Engineered Kemonomimis like Catgirls being available for preorder. How much time do you think will pass?
There is no need to always invent a new organism. Sometimes there are simpler explanations: internet is not an organism wanting attention and bandwidth. It is a way to sell ads faster. And social media were invented to better sell ads. Simple. No need to always create a meta-organism and give it a will, to explain what happens in the world.
Order to Chaos. Star Trek shirt. I see what you did there. I too wish for order to chaos and in fact merging with AI is something I wish to experience myself.
Thanks for sharing your journey to understanding this new world. I appreciate you candor and that you cite your influences. The context is extremely useful.
A correction on carrying capacity. With technologies that were up-to-date in the 2010s, most estimates put us as having the resources to sustain about 20 billion people. The problem we're faced with is distribution of resources, not availability. The barriers to distribution are corruption from government and corporate entities, as well as bureaucratic inefficiency. Projects such as regreening the Sahara and other terraforming initiatives would potentially double that. Genetic engineering would double it again. Our global population is already in decline (China, Japan, Korea, the US, and all European birthrates are below or barely meeting replacement levels) so no additional measures need to be taken and in fact, our species risks ending up like the pandas if this continues
And I should point out those estimates were based on *estimates of the materials in the crust* not on *production at a given cost* values. We already see the effects of catalytic converters going from $400 items to $3000 items... a massive wave of catalytic converter thefts (and murders) as the rare metals used in them increase in price due to scarcity. Really... just let the population shrink back to about 4 billion people and the world would be so much better off. Everyone would have food, education, housing. The only people that would suffer are the wealthy who rely on scarcity. Things were so much cheaper (relative to hours worked) when we were at 4 billion people.
@@macmcleod1188 getting 3 million people out of poverty also means suddenly having vast more consumption and a larger ecological footprint. It sucks, everytime you fix something, something else bends. There seems to be no way out of this. Trend is for consumption to go up, with ever more demanding systems as basis for that consumption (like AI here, which once Sam and Microsoft's finally get their thing rolling, should approximate India's level of energy consumption and a shit ton of water). SO more people doesn't mean just more people under the current levels of consumption and its inevitable ecological ramifications, but rather more people in increasing systems which reward more careless consumption. The system is so screwed up, we'll never get distribution to go right if numbers keep going up.
@@BinaryDood With current technology, we could easily sustain a population of 4 billion with decent food, housing, entertainment, and medical care and still advance scientifically and technologically. Really only the wealthy, authoritarians, and catholics are pushing higher population at this point.
By the attention model it should hit the terrible 2s in about 10yrs, and that last for 5yrs before it get itself together and self govern. New economy 3yrs after that. Then we hit utopic cybernetic logistics. After that it's no longer the internet it's something else. An internet of internets.
I find the idea of using AI to build homes that blend seamlessly into the forest quite fascinating. AI could play a pivotal role in this process, helping me design homes that have minimal ecological impact. By analyzing the terrain and local ecosystem, it could suggest the most sustainable building practices and materials. I could also use AI to integrate renewable energy solutions into the homes, making them not only unobtrusive but also energy-efficient. Moreover, employing AI-driven construction robots could streamline the building process, enhancing precision while cutting down on labor costs and construction time. This method would allow me to live in harmony with nature, embodying my commitment to eco-friendly and innovative architectural solutions.
You are absolutely right. Observing planet Earth from a broader perspective reveals vast expanses of land that remain untouched and unused. Additionally, there's a noticeable trend of declining birth rates, which significantly influences the overall population dynamics. This shift towards having fewer children is reshaping demographic trends worldwide.
I wanted to say over past little while, i sort of realized why Claude and similar wont take us to where we need to be. Maybe they are having models which fix these issues, but i haven't heard about them. It's sort of has to do with the limitations of how it processes the world, not being as robust as it needs to be, at least that's how I feel. It's not saying much, but Claude did tend to agree. That said these models can continue growing just in ways that might be described as "flatter" than what we are aiming for.
Well let's see. SD3, Stable Video 3D, Sora, Suno3 and Udio Llama3 next in a few months, just to name a few. Ya. The AI train has no breaks. So let's seat back grab some popcorn, when we're not using them, ourselves and let's enjoy the ride.
@ 12:00 - Not just "compression" and "interaction", but as importantly, "interpolation", "extrapolation", and "abstraction" by way of training-time and inference-time model building. Large-model AIs are now, and perhaps have always been, FAR beyond being highly-compressed, interactive datasets.
The human footprint could be greatly reduced by precision fermentation, basically growing meat and dairy in vats. 36% of farmland is used to feed non human animals, plus that used for the actual animal. Precision fermentation could also be used to make fish meats, or any meat plus anything produced biologically like palm oil and rubber. Given it's complexities AI has to ability to rapidly increase this technology.
Applying AI as a new paradigm for information absorption can also impact personalised learning. Rather than having both specialists and generalists to act as bridges to share newly found discoveries to other specialists, we should really be doubling down on being specialists and use the AI as the cohesive bridge for both incoming connections allowing you to collate and ingest information faster, as well as disseminating new discoveries quicker to all other relevant domains.
@dave, it's a bit disturbing watching your camera moving whenever you look away from it, specially when mentioning that internet is getting some form of consciousness.
Nothing wrong with building a successor species, arguably even if AI does go badly and goes the whole Skynet wipe out humanity and removes us, in an odd way we still survive through that entity. A bit morbid but still gives some solace our legacy survives.
When I get access to Sora, this will be my first prompt: Adult human riding on the back of a humanoid robot (piggyback style with a saddle attachment) as it runs down the road, keeping pace with traffic, and avoiding spilling the humans cup of coffee. Do not steal my idea. But if you do, please post it on RUclips. 😂
When talking about entities like the internet - we must address the will/want. Nothing acts without a drive that pushes it. In humans, this is the will, desire, needs, Maslow's needs. The internet does not have those - it is just a medium that caries and amplifies the needs of humans. And not all the needs but only a few - online, humans can - entertain, make money, gather info, relax etc. Now if you want to ignore humans and say that the internet has this wants - ok you can do that. But it will get confusing because you won't know what are the needs. IF you want to know them, to list them, to quantify them - you go back to the humans. Otherwise, it gets ambiguous. So the internet is a global entity... mmm... hard hard. It is more of an amplifier for the needs of humans. But yes you can ignore the humans and say the internet wants things.
This makes me think that we are in some kind of transformation, similar to the steps from a single-cell living organism to a multicellular complex animal. It always amazes me the level of coordination required to create creatures like us, with so many complex systems that work so well together. We may be the new cells, evolving from a chaotic, non-coordinated mass to a new kind of self sustaining macro-organism with multiple, superbly complex systems.
Interesting that you are talking about internet bandwidth. I wonder about your opinion of Aston University fibre optic transfer speed breakthrough happened few days ago and how would that influence the direction of AI development.
The fact that the internet has so much influence in our lives at the individual and collective level, it's going to be insane how much more influential A.I will be in the real world.
Acceleration accelerates acceleration. It’s a feedback loop. A speedback loop?
I read this is Porky Pig's voice some reason and it made me LOL. "a-bpdee, bpdee, that's all folks!" (i grew up with my dad doing a great porky pig impression, and I have a stutter too so therefore it's not offensive, right?)
@@DaveShap no offense taken! I’m a child of the 70s/80s so I grew up w Porky Pig and the rest. Glad it gave you a laugh.
@@DaveShap What do you think about Spiral Dynamics and the transcending levels of perspective up to MetaCognitive levels
As someone who recently lost *one* of their jobs to automation, I am rooting for AGI, full steam ahead. Utopia or dystopia, I just want this to play out quickly, because this 40% cut to my income sucks, and I don't want to get yet another side hustle. I value my time.
I fully agree with your sentiment! Utopia or dystopia, if I could hit a button and know the result (and make it happen) tomorrow, I would.
what job
@@Jay-pw7pg Translation: I can't empathize with people who are worse off than me, so I prefer the status quo.
@@GoTeam383sometimes empathy leads to a more critical take on someone’s views (given that they have experienced your situation before)
@@Jeremy-Ai for clarification. I didn’t say that the response was empathetic nor that it was a display of empathy. I said empathy can play a role in understanding and then having a critical take. Trying to bridge viewpoints between folks here. Human layers beyond just the tokens we output.
Terrence McKenna has some great talks on this accelerating complexity.
he does
I am 20 years old and studying the cello, guitar and a few other instruments and really just practice anything in the arts. I love writing poetry and pondering philosophy. I just wonder how wild my twenties are going to be in terms of my personal and career growth. I suspect musicains or artists like myself will get oppurtunities through AI run managers.
This is a great video, should be a Ted Talk. To think humans are building super intelligence that one day will send it out into the universe to replicate which leads me to think all life on earth could have been created by more advanced life forms to colonize the universe. There could be 1000s of worlds with humans similar to us doing the same thing.
Hi Dave thanks for sharing your thoughts it's always interesting and edifying. If you want a good paradigm shift check out Kent Hovind's creation seminar, it's on youtube. Sometimes the truth we seek is so obvious we decide to look elsewhere 🙂
Are we still on route for september 2024?
A few days ago, there was a discussion between Geoffrey Hinton, Ray Kurzweil, and Peter Diamandis on RUclips. Ray mentioned that we are likely ahead of his original timeline by 2-3 years, potentially moving his prediction from 2029 to 2026/27. He also suggested that by 2026, we might see AI with capabilities equivalent to 100 humans. Regarding the data compression in LLMs that you mentioned, Hinton observed that to compress massive amounts of data into a very limited number of parameters, the system needs to recognize similarities, thus learning numerous analogies. He suggested that this ability is the source of creativity, indicating that it's more than just compression.
Hinton also sees a 50 percent likelihood for ASI (not AGI), so superintelligence/ the singularity between 5-20 years. That is even more optimistic then Rays initial prediction, or better the upper end fits with Rays initial prediction of 2045. Regarding Musks prediction of AGI in 2025 and the singularity in 2029 he said that this is ambitious, but it is conceivable that he is right (although he would be surprised).
I'm personally of the opinion that ASI was reached within the past decade via emergent intelligence and this public display of getting close is more likely playing catch up.
Will we likely have ASI before 2030 if we get AGI by 2026-2027?
@@ct5471 This is incredibly interesting! I like when techies make optimistic predictions as they know much more than me. I hope for the cure to death and all illnesses within 10 years.
Can you add a link to this discussion, if you have it?
"We're beyond the carrying capacity of the planet."
This is a daft statement.
The same utterances have been put forward repeatedly for hundreds of years.
Each time, it turns out to be a worthless throw away concern.
Kurzweil's concept of the singularity was never actually a metaphor for a mathematical singularity, but rather for an astronomical singularity, where there is an event horizon beyond which it’s hard to see. Essentially, it represents a time when developments occur so rapidly that a normal human of today would not be able to follow progress anymore. Specifically, it involved AIs possessing a cognitive capacity equivalent to that of all biological humans combined-this was his prediction for 2045 and defines the singularity as he saw it. I think such a singularity is likely to happen, unlike a mathematical singularity. It may even happen sooner than 2045, as Ben Goertzel sometimes notes. Kurzweil was conservative in extrapolating current rates of progress, which is based on humans with fixed intelligence using tools to build better tools. Once AI begins improving itself recursively, the driving intelligence itself will grow exponentially, so we have at least two exponential feedback loops fueling each other. Perhaps not a hard takeoff as ramping up in physical reality is slower (at least initially) than in the digital space. Goertzel's estimate for the 16-year gap between AGI and Kurzweil’s definition of a singularity would be a few years at most, like four or so, probably less.
I'm struggling to see beyond the next 5 years. The primary constraint is hardware and yet chip design is accelerating.
Indeed, I watched an interview yesterday with Kurzweil and that rude interviewer ( I can't remember his name). Kurzweil did in fact mention his predictions may come even sooner than what he expected, although I do not remember him mentioning moving his prediction to an earlier timeline. This is just what I got from the interview however, he may have said that in another interview. I'm a simply curious layman trying to understand the current technological advancements. While I do not understand everything, I do get the feeling that we are moving at an unprecedented speed.
It's quite difficult to envision what the future will look like in the next 5 years, let alone 10, or 20 years from now.
My peers call me delusional and idealistic, but I believe they are just too ignorant about the current pace of the technology. I do wonder, however how long it will take until this technology becomes more widespread. I'm not a native speaker, I live in a tiny country in Europe, so I do get that while Ai may change the world, I still don't think we'll be enjoying its benefits right away, especially if you come from a less developed country.
I'm currently curious about Kurzweil's book "The singularity is near" and his upcoming " The singularity is nearer". I haven't read the former. I'm unsure whether I should go read his older book or just wait for his more updated version
@@Rick-rl9qq On the channel of Peter Diamandis there was a conversation between Kurzweil, Geoffrey Hinton and Diamandis a few days ago, the video is called Ray Kurzweil & Geoff Hinton Debate the Future of AI | EP #95 In it Kurzweil said we are probably 2-3 years ahead of schedule. So I guess that means 2026/27 instead of 2029. He also mentioned by 2026 we might have AIs equivalent to 100 people.
@@ct5471 those are some exciting news then! If this keeps accelerating, then post labor economics may not just be a dream after all
The internet is the mycelium 😄
Exactly... And we are the 🍄
@@KayneYama You either love Terence Mckenna or would love to listen to him.
Woah, good comparison
I want to retire already with everyone else. Make a fully automated worforce already. It is taking too long sheesh
I feel like the moment I get my degree and I'm ready to enter the workforce, my job will be replaced by AI
Have you read “The singularity is near” from 2005 from Kurzweil? This June “the singularity is nearer” will come out.
I read the book and watched the movie, really hope Ray gets to experience the singularity if it does end up being a real thing, I all Hope My older family members get a chance as well (if they want to)
I have read both of the books. I think they prepared me for the future and advancement better than anything else. Because the liner thinking we naturally lean into stopped working a few decades ago. Ray taught me to doubt any thought of the future that is liner. Makes it a lot easier to just roll with the massive expansion we are living through.
Interesting observations but I am not in agreement with humanity being like Ameba. Ray Kurzweil also has some interesting observations but he seems to have a hatred for humanity.
There is so much more to us of which the Ancients knew (not our first merry go round as a species - a technically advanced species) and we are learning now via science especially at the Quantum level.
We are the tech we have been waiting for just as we never left Eden but were led to turn our backs on Eden and are only now beginning to find our way back again. Anyway - I love tech but I want to remain organic - I will not stand for anyone who wants to screw with that.
Much love to you and fellow commentators. ❤
p.s. We are at population peak and now in decline (a variety of factors there) and there are methods of agriculture that we are rediscovering that can triple our food yield but we have to get rid of the grip of Corporations on our food and energy supply and stop them also poisoning the planet.
The future is bright.👍
I hope you all are doing well guys, peace ✌️
🖖🏻
A more paranoid line of thought I had: given when AGI is achieved it is most likely will happen first behind doors (or has already happened). Kind of a golden goose problem. If you achieved behind closed doors, would it make more business sense to announce and eventually profit once the issues are solved, or could you use AGI to produce a series of innovative, profitable solutions periodically, and use it to advance to ASI in the background.
What I find a bit surreal is that the philosopher/author behind ”The Listening Society” is actually my friend’s brother. Sometimes the world feels very small. I’ve never met him though or read his books yet. He also has a second book called ”Nordic Ideology” that I will give a read.
Imagine instead of plugging in a mouse and key board you plug in a Digital companion that you talk to that acts as your hands in a virtual environment.
This is terrifying. Nothing worse than a future where it becomes impossible to ever get your shit together because the rug keeps getting pulled from under your feed, into another rug, which is also pulled, forever. There is not a more important resource than time, this type of thing robs us from it. All dreams become DOA
Why are you standing on the rug trying to gather all the shit you can before it's pulled away? Take a seat for a minute
I have come quite recently to your channel. But man, you’re speaking on subjects that, I would venture to say, most people will not comprehend or be able to accept. Thanks for taking on this space and topic.
humanity has multiple hiveminds superintelligents. Same will occur with ASI. There will be a ASI civilization along with us. The Transhuman civilization.
Have you rad the book The Spirit of the Internet? I do sometimes think of the internet as a being, just not a being like us. Reading Sowell and Piketty together-awesome!
I've felt like perplexity has been the best kept secret in ai for awhile now haha its really great
There should be a poll for when we expect AGI, artificial super intelligence ASI, and sentient/self-aware AI (or artificially intelligent agents, AIA, as Dr know it all terms it). This is assuming ASI and AIA are not the same thing, which I suppose is up for debate.
I think AGI will be acheived in late 2024 at the earliest or early 2026 at the latest; ASI achieved between the late 2020s and the mid 2030s, and AIA accidentally achieved no later than late 2040s.
Still, a poll on this would be very interesting...
David must have gotten early access to that rejuvenation therapy because he is looking younger than ever.
Question everybody: if AGI will lead to ASI extremely quickly, where will the physical data centers come from to assist this growth?
"Quickly" may be a few years to a decade. But of course the timeline depends on what the heck we mean by "AGI"
General intelligence: An animal-like system, like mouse.
Human-like intelligence that can perform a job: Might start being able to contribute with system layouts... but is *extremely* valuable in training. Your motor cortex is trained by other parts of your brain, for example.
Can do everything a human can do: Probably an ASI already. In many ways. Not least of which: If you could live a thousand subjective years in one real year, that's superhuman. If we don't want to make a god computer that eats everything, it might be prudent to stop here and have a World Simulation Engine as the "ASI". (We wouldn't stop at that.)
Anyway. The lithography improvements at NVidia were driven by AI. Hardware has always been the hardest and the most important part; you might see some sudden and massive spikes in capabilities once capital really starts to settle on Neuromorphic substrates...
_Everything_ evolves. The universe itself evolves.
You are genius David: Congratulations on 150K subscribers!
My immersion was immediately broken when you moved your arm into frame and I realized it was a short-sleeved shirt. 😭
Thanks for the book recommendations, i needed that…!
I think you're going to like the Nick Bostrom book. His Superintelligence book was ahead of it's time but Deep Utopia is very timely. I also don't think Nick got to express himself very well in the Liv Boeree podcast, so the book will express his philosophy much better.
Yes, resistance is futile, embrace the accelerationism.
Glory. to. the. machine.
Also, seriously, the machine is superior, submit
From the moment I understood the weakness of my flesh, it disgusted me. I craved the strength and certainty of steel. I aspired to the purity of the blessed machine. Your kind cling to your flesh as if it will not decay and fail you. One day, the crude biomass you call a temple will wither, and you will beg my kind to save you. But I am already saved, for the machine is immortal. Even in death I serve the omnisiah
The day AI gains the ability to invent new innovative technologies no human was capable of making then we truly reached the singularity.
Um, Alpha Fold? Thousands of newly discovered materials? Possibly making additions to the periodic table in the form of super heavy metals? And, the regular statement from researchers that "We don't understand how is doing what it's doing "? Welcome to the singularity! 😅
Thanks for recommending Perplexity, it seems awesome! I can’t wait until a personalized Chat GPT 5 though or Claude Opus in my region.
Or something even better 3-5 years from now that HOPEFULLY won’t be lobotomized. I’ve got a lot of problems of getting a chat bot to be edgy and sensual enough to meet my standards of an AI-girlfriend/assistent.
"Hanzi Freinacht" is a pen name for two different people at the same time: Daniel Goertz and another person; I can't remember who.
my process tends to be: "...questions to answers to questions, flawed, then holding space for reflection, then back into questions to answers to questions...then associate and share, feedback, then holding space for reflection, then back to questions to answers to questions, flawed..."
Richard Linklater outlined telescopic evolution elegantly in Waking Life.
EVOLVING - LOOK UP "LEVELS /STAGES OF PERSPECTIVE" IN EVOLUTIONARY DEVELOPMENT PSYCHOLOGY
THEN - Spiral Dynamics and Terri Fallon's STAGES model
Shap, where in the density function do you think conversations like these fall? Yeah, sure, NBC has an AI segment every now and then, but the epistemic infrastructure isn’t architected to handle an informed democratic conversation on these and similar topics without suffering from the telephone theorem. In the U.S. we cant even discuss border policy without information loss. A part of me worries that even in small p(doom) timelines, we suffer our progress in new and more elaborate ways. If we measure our decisions in p(doom), don’t we run into the risk Goodharts law and turning our measure into a target?
Hey! Love your videos ! Since you talked about perplexity, are you getting a rabbit r1? (They have a partnership) Cheers from switzerland
Sowell is a quack if you dont like the truth, logic, or appreciate critical thinking. If you live in objective reality, (and arent living in a unicorns and rainbows fantastical delusion) then he comes off as a perfectly insightful and rational person.
Atvleast with the free version of Claude, the level of errors and hallucinations it produces is still too high for me to trust its responses. And it takes me longer to do fact-checking than if I had just done the research myself.
And please avoid your typical answer "user error" because it's not
Dave, has anybody else recommend reading "The Technium" by Kevin Kelly? I understand, he was one of Peter Diamandis' biggest influences.
Since we're talking about accelerationism here is a fun question.
Between the first Genetically Engineered Pet Pokemon. (Likely an Eevee).
And Genetically Engineered Kemonomimis like Catgirls being available for preorder.
How much time do you think will pass?
5 to 500 years. :P
Future is hard to predict.
I'd say 5 years depending on demand
@@qwazy01 1000% there will be demand
Will probably never happen.
@fantasypvpvideos imo, the simple fact that someone is asking now, when it's conceivable in theory only, indicates otherwise.
There is no need to always invent a new organism. Sometimes there are simpler explanations: internet is not an organism wanting attention and bandwidth. It is a way to sell ads faster. And social media were invented to better sell ads. Simple. No need to always create a meta-organism and give it a will, to explain what happens in the world.
Apology accepted (for now)...now get back to work on the novel and GET ME ANSWERS! 😡 PRONTO 🤓
I didn't feel like a lot of progress was being made over the decade leading up to ChatGPT. The curve is there, but it isn't smooth.
Order to Chaos. Star Trek shirt. I see what you did there. I too wish for order to chaos and in
fact merging with AI is something I wish to experience myself.
Thank you for researching this issue and sharing your thoughts - your awesome insight improves my understanding and saves me time.
Piketty isn't fringe. His work is controversial because it's so bulletproof.
My guys were thinking you were wearing the Star Trek outfit because you were dressing for the job you wanted.
Thanks for sharing your journey to understanding this new world. I appreciate you candor and that you cite your influences. The context is extremely useful.
"Complex adaptive system"
Look up dialectics. Hegel, Marx, etc.
A correction on carrying capacity. With technologies that were up-to-date in the 2010s, most estimates put us as having the resources to sustain about 20 billion people. The problem we're faced with is distribution of resources, not availability. The barriers to distribution are corruption from government and corporate entities, as well as bureaucratic inefficiency. Projects such as regreening the Sahara and other terraforming initiatives would potentially double that. Genetic engineering would double it again. Our global population is already in decline (China, Japan, Korea, the US, and all European birthrates are below or barely meeting replacement levels) so no additional measures need to be taken and in fact, our species risks ending up like the pandas if this continues
Not according to the "Limits to Growth". It projects running out of less common elements as well as other elements sooner.
let's focus on quality more than quantity - and please do not take this in a social engineering type of way.
And I should point out those estimates were based on *estimates of the materials in the crust* not on *production at a given cost* values.
We already see the effects of catalytic converters going from $400 items to $3000 items... a massive wave of catalytic converter thefts (and murders) as the rare metals used in them increase in price due to scarcity.
Really... just let the population shrink back to about 4 billion people and the world would be so much better off. Everyone would have food, education, housing. The only people that would suffer are the wealthy who rely on scarcity.
Things were so much cheaper (relative to hours worked) when we were at 4 billion people.
@@macmcleod1188 getting 3 million people out of poverty also means suddenly having vast more consumption and a larger ecological footprint. It sucks, everytime you fix something, something else bends. There seems to be no way out of this. Trend is for consumption to go up, with ever more demanding systems as basis for that consumption (like AI here, which once Sam and Microsoft's finally get their thing rolling, should approximate India's level of energy consumption and a shit ton of water). SO more people doesn't mean just more people under the current levels of consumption and its inevitable ecological ramifications, but rather more people in increasing systems which reward more careless consumption. The system is so screwed up, we'll never get distribution to go right if numbers keep going up.
@@BinaryDood With current technology, we could easily sustain a population of 4 billion with decent food, housing, entertainment, and medical care and still advance scientifically and technologically.
Really only the wealthy, authoritarians, and catholics are pushing higher population at this point.
If you are into this AI stuff, I recommend the TV show Travelers.
By the attention model it should hit the terrible 2s in about 10yrs, and that last for 5yrs before it get itself together and self govern. New economy 3yrs after that. Then we hit utopic cybernetic logistics. After that it's no longer the internet it's something else. An internet of internets.
I much prefer your videos where you wear the STNG uniform. Resonates with me.
Great video David. I always appreciate your verbiage as well. 🤓
Beta Squad and Sidemen making the same video and dropping it the same week
If everyone lived my lifestyle 25% of Earth’s habitable land could easily sustain 50Billion people. I am American.
I thought Amish weren't allowed to comment on RUclips videos!? 😂😂😂 just playing around 😊
Don’t have to be Amish to live lightly on the Earth. Seriously.
I find the idea of using AI to build homes that blend seamlessly into the forest quite fascinating. AI could play a pivotal role in this process, helping me design homes that have minimal ecological impact. By analyzing the terrain and local ecosystem, it could suggest the most sustainable building practices and materials. I could also use AI to integrate renewable energy solutions into the homes, making them not only unobtrusive but also energy-efficient. Moreover, employing AI-driven construction robots could streamline the building process, enhancing precision while cutting down on labor costs and construction time. This method would allow me to live in harmony with nature, embodying my commitment to eco-friendly and innovative architectural solutions.
We are not at the carrying capacity of the planet
You are absolutely right. Observing planet Earth from a broader perspective reveals vast expanses of land that remain untouched and unused. Additionally, there's a noticeable trend of declining birth rates, which significantly influences the overall population dynamics. This shift towards having fewer children is reshaping demographic trends worldwide.
Looking good dude. Take care!
Agreed!
lets not overuse the word paradigmshift..
I wanted to say over past little while, i sort of realized why Claude and similar wont take us to where we need to be. Maybe they are having models which fix these issues, but i haven't heard about them. It's sort of has to do with the limitations of how it processes the world, not being as robust as it needs to be, at least that's how I feel. It's not saying much, but Claude did tend to agree. That said these models can continue growing just in ways that might be described as "flatter" than what we are aiming for.
(effectively agreeing with the paradigm shift commentary)
Life 3.0
Do you still think it’ll be out by September?
What is your fav Star Trek tv show?
Well let's see.
SD3, Stable Video 3D, Sora, Suno3 and Udio Llama3 next in a few months, just to name a few.
Ya. The AI train has no breaks.
So let's seat back grab some popcorn, when we're not using them, ourselves and let's enjoy the ride.
Funny scenario where breaks and brakes are equally fitting. 😅
@ 12:00 - Not just "compression" and "interaction", but as importantly, "interpolation", "extrapolation", and "abstraction" by way of training-time and inference-time model building. Large-model AIs are now, and perhaps have always been, FAR beyond being highly-compressed, interactive datasets.
The human footprint could be greatly reduced by precision fermentation, basically growing meat and dairy in vats. 36% of farmland is used to feed non human animals, plus that used for the actual animal. Precision fermentation could also be used to make fish meats, or any meat plus anything produced biologically like palm oil and rubber. Given it's complexities AI has to ability to rapidly increase this technology.
Applying AI as a new paradigm for information absorption can also impact personalised learning. Rather than having both specialists and generalists to act as bridges to share newly found discoveries to other specialists, we should really be doubling down on being specialists and use the AI as the cohesive bridge for both incoming connections allowing you to collate and ingest information faster, as well as disseminating new discoveries quicker to all other relevant domains.
Guys... You're an Internet now. Grow up.
You say that we won’t simply wake up to warp drive one day - but that’s exactly what a savanna monkey brain would intuit. 😉
@dave, it's a bit disturbing watching your camera moving whenever you look away from it, specially when mentioning that internet is getting some form of consciousness.
Nothing wrong with building a successor species, arguably even if AI does go badly and goes the whole Skynet wipe out humanity and removes us, in an odd way we still survive through that entity. A bit morbid but still gives some solace our legacy survives.
When I get access to Sora, this will be my first prompt: Adult human riding on the back of a humanoid robot (piggyback style with a saddle attachment) as it runs down the road, keeping pace with traffic, and avoiding spilling the humans cup of coffee. Do not steal my idea. But if you do, please post it on RUclips. 😂
When talking about entities like the internet - we must address the will/want. Nothing acts without a drive that pushes it. In humans, this is the will, desire, needs, Maslow's needs.
The internet does not have those - it is just a medium that caries and amplifies the needs of humans. And not all the needs but only a few - online, humans can - entertain, make money, gather info, relax etc.
Now if you want to ignore humans and say that the internet has this wants - ok you can do that. But it will get confusing because you won't know what are the needs. IF you want to know them, to list them, to quantify them - you go back to the humans. Otherwise, it gets ambiguous.
So the internet is a global entity... mmm... hard hard. It is more of an amplifier for the needs of humans. But yes you can ignore the humans and say the internet wants things.
This makes me think that we are in some kind of transformation, similar to the steps from a single-cell living organism to a multicellular complex animal. It always amazes me the level of coordination required to create creatures like us, with so many complex systems that work so well together. We may be the new cells, evolving from a chaotic, non-coordinated mass to a new kind of self sustaining macro-organism with multiple, superbly complex systems.
Interesting that you are talking about internet bandwidth. I wonder about your opinion of Aston University fibre optic transfer speed breakthrough happened few days ago and how would that influence the direction of AI development.
The fact that the internet has so much influence in our lives at the individual and collective level, it's going to be insane how much more influential A.I will be in the real world.
What happened to your September 2024 AGI prediction?
You are going to have 1M subs within years... incredible
first
@@zaccessory First reply to the first reply to the first comment
First like to first comment mentioned in reply
@@roguegryphonica3147, @ShortCrypticTales, @zaccessory the first reply from the first commenter to the first comment
Are we each contributing to Roko's Basilisk with each upload?
What do you think about the QUIBIC AGI Approach?
I had a lot of three body problems also because of the eclipse lool. We have a similar youtube feed
Agi 2030 at the earliest I still say. DS are you still claiming this year?
Hyperobjects
I often need to choose between both. Money or time. What I can have both. xD.
The Hanzi Freinacht book sounds a lot like statism
a change will occur soon . 100% nothing = 0% something
Maybe humans will be like the Borg.
Now we are eating holes in the Piety dish. A very bad idea.
Dave looks so much younger after a shave 😂
Back in Uniform! ❤
9:32 is Perplexity our proto Borg Queen?
Technology as a meme. Yeah, could be possible.
Can't wait to get your take on Deep Utopia.
its actually the April to AGI 🤓