If I’m Right On The 10-Year Yield, Watch How Bearish Everyone’s Going To Be | Jim Bianco
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- Опубликовано: 19 июн 2024
- Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 165 to discuss the current macro picture and the potential impact of inflation on the economy.
In this episode, he highlights the bifurcated nature of the economy, with inflation posing a challenge for lower-income individuals. Bianco also shares his insights on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and the outlook for long-term interest rates. He thinks rates for the 10-year are likely headed higher to 5-5.5% and breaks down what that could mean for asset allocation, including crypto.
Elsewhere, he weights in on his concerns surrounding the narrative of the Bitcoin ETF, while emphasizing the need for a comprehensive alternative financial system.
Links:
BiancoResearch.com
BiancoAdvisors.com
biancoresearch
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome Jim Bianco and intro
0:59 Macro picture
1:49 Stickier inflation
4:27 Bifurcated economy
6:06 Interest rate policy outlook
7:50 Fed is not partisan but it is political
9:29 Rates on the 10-year likely headed to 5-5.5%
12:00 The Fed doesn’t change policy in the summer up to election day
13:19 Implications for 10-year at 5-5.5%
19:59 Demographics
24:01 Bitcoin ETF
31:38 How Bitcoin gets to $1 million
34:10 Parting thoughts
#economy #stockmarket #bitcoin
Hey everyone! I'm so happy to welcome Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, back on the pod for episode 165! Please join me in the comment section with your feedback. Thanks so much for your support and watching my channel. You all really are the nicest people on the internet.💙Julia
Jim is the Red Pill
An excellent guest speaker. I always enjoy listening to the realistic insights of Jim Bianco.
Jim is the best!!!
Julia show pure gold. Keep it growing!
Excellent discussion. Love to listen to the wisdom of Jim Bianco! Thank you.
Great guest! Great interviewing by letting Jim go into lengthy explanations without interrupting! Well done!
Long time practitioner of investing and economics. Seen this movie.
Great series of interviews by knowledgeable practitioners.
Jim Bianco.is one of the best commentator, much better than another grumpy old man
How can you honestly think they can cut rates? They are too low
The problem with the analysis is that it is predicated on the government providing honest data. Who can trust them at this point?
Appreciate Jim's thoughts on bitcoin. 100% agree his callout on the lost narrative. However, he needs to know that building out the infrastructure for mainstream adoption is really hard, and 15yrs is barely scratching the surface. It will get there, but will require a lot of capital, there will be lots of lawsuits, and technical hurdles. But none of those detract from the fact that bitcoin is the first manner to transact value without a 3rd party in the history of humankind, and that is very profound.
And to his point that bitcoin flourishes in a weak dollar setting .. well yes that’s the whole point. Bitcoin showed up just as the world needed an alternative to the dollar , this is a feature not a bug
Thoughtful questions make for an excellent interview. Thank you for your efforts.
Excellent interview as always. Thank you.
Look at the rate at which bond yields are going up. Huge momentum. They will easily pass 5.5 percent.
Love the show and format.
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is following this informative content cheers Frank 😊
Very interesting
Great work sir
Good video!!!
Jim is the 👑
Great guest
I watched a youtube vid showing a transaction in Singapore I think. It took 2 different cellphone transaction along with a couple of other cash register transaction. 2 minutes compared to Visa or Apple Pay? 5 Sec.? 10?
Bitcon
"As a global payments network Visa has the capacity to execute more than 65,000 transactions per second."
Loving the fixed income returns. Especially for those of us lucky enough to have 30 yr fixed mortages at low rates. It's about as bulletproof as you can get
We are in peak layoff period . For over a year layoffs have driven the loss of full time positions in favor of part time positions. So part time employment is driving the cooked unemployment numbers. No one want to pay healthcare so we are defaulting to a 30 hour work week
Bitcoin and gold ETFs are in Roth retirement accounts because ppl do not want to pay the government 50% of their appreciation in taxes. Sorry if that reinforces "Centralization", Jim.
When you ask them about the" macro picture", can you ask them what they think it will be like in 18 months E.G. Interest rates, GDP, employment,, Dollar,. get how hard guessing the future is , but just idea of how everyone is thinking would be insightful as nearly all finance channels speak what has just happened or what will happen a long time in the future.
Not an expert but I see 18 months now being pretty good overall as I think infiation is down to at or right under 2% so rates should be about 6.0 or 5.75 on mortgages and that spurs the economy as well as companies being able to borrow. I think it will be pretty round for a year though. Slow growth but inflation will very slowly drop imo.
Fed is political! Majority of voting governors are president appointees.
FDIC facing continuing bank meltdowns like first republicans. Plus impact on non banks. Getting interesting out there. This could scare Federal Reserve?
The FED is the Bolshevic tribe.
What about stagflation? Last time you both talked about it, I thought there would be an update on whether he sees it coming
😢
My ultra short term bond fund is having a good year...6+%
Betting odds now has it over 50% to have cut in Sept and Nov.
The federal government has possession of 400k BTC . When BTC is $500k they should peg the dollar to 2000 sats. That will cover the entire US money supply easily. You’ll need to end the Fed and fractional banking along with stopping the printing bubble f money. Open a BTC window at the treasury like the old gold window at the Fed. That will stop inflation and convert the future at dollar to hard money. It leaves the rest of the world room to adjust their currencies relative to the US dollar and indirectly to BTC.
I'm 35 and about to buy my second investment property. Going to be finishing up my current one and selling this fall or next spring. Worst case I rent it out and pay the note no the next one with the income. Other than that I have gold, silver, and like $35k in mutual funds in IRAs I don't touch. I don't want anything to do with stocks anymore. Lost my ass on crypto in 2022. I have money in a HYS at 5%. I understand real estate. I'll stick to working on houses.
Good for you, man. Just be careful with leverage.
@@KapteeniKaaosexactly but if he does it within his means, he will be ok
Julia😍
What Jim doesn't know is that 87% of bitcoin is in private wallets amd 1% is in the whole ETF world. The rest of the 12% is held by exchanges. Jim... you need to get some sleep buddy
Buffett and Munger: "It's a ponzi scheme-rat poison." But what do they know?
Two percent to three percent is a fifty percent difference. It’s definitely a big deal
Especially when its really 10%
Jim you're right but 5-5-1/2 won't do it in this environment. Inflation is closer to 20% than 2%.
Gotta love people pulling percentages out of thin air to sound smart. He says 10-20% max of rate cut until nov. I'll take that 5:1 bet.
The average of s%P 500 is not 8%, wrong data
He has Missed when the Fed said 4% unemployment and POOF rate CUT we are .01 away from that point in time 😳😳😳
Debasment plus inflation is 12% ,bonds will lose a lot of money
Bonds are the things which the government will use to distribute losses over the next decade.
Real inflation is well over 5%……interest rates will be going up not down.
he needs more study of btc
Singles and doubles
He does know that when we say boomer we don't literally mean the baby boomer generation but any older person right?
The jobs numbers are cooked every month and haven’t be adjusted downward after 2 months every month. So the top line numbers BS.
Over half the people now 61 live above eighty, you make it sound like they're all gonna be gone at eighty
Most of them will.😂
@Resmith18SR I just looked at an actuarial table. If you're 61, the odds, are you gonna live to 82. The older you get, the more likely you're going to live past 80
@@Kristofur77 And so what?
🤣👉 Funny guy without knowledge of economy and finance
“I’m long Bitcoin…”
Haha, not listening any further. Bye
The Fed is doing their best not to raise rates to help Joe Brandon
He has Missed when the Fed said 4% unemployment and POOF rate CUT we are .01 away from that point in time 😳😳😳
He has Missed when the Fed said 4% unemployment and POOF rate CUT we are .01 away from that point in time 😳😳😳