The REAL reason SpaceX Dear Moon was canceled!
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- Опубликовано: 16 июн 2024
- Maezawa claims that his visionary Dear Moon Mission was canceled due to uncertain scheduling. That explanation is becoming less and less convincing...
#spacex #space #elonmusk
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Развлечения
He made the mission to get a gf. He got a gf and went to the ISS so no longer needed this plaything. The delay was an excuse.
New gf said: Heck no, I need the money more!
No wonder, these days gfs are more expensive than space missions🤷♂
Right, it couldn't be because he finally woke up and realized Elon Musk is a con artist. Saturn V was already flying people to the moon by the THIRD launch, only one year after the first launch.
Damn. If that's what you have to do, it's no wonder the birth rate in the developed world is so low.
@@frjoethesecondif you haven't seen it yet, watch Idiocracy.
I suspect that Maezawa after seeing OceanGate's submersible Titan implode, reconsidered and thought. "Nah, I am not going there"
That's an apples/oranges comparison.
That’s a banana chow mein comparison.
Unlike Tesla, SpaceX’s manufacturing process isn’t entirely peppered with DEI initiatives…at least not yet
Yeah but probably still a fair analogy . @@phillipzx3754
@@phillipzx3754Get outta here, pal.
The billionaire is now a millionaire, quite simple 😅
No reason to fully unpack why that happened though huh?
Isn’t it true that billionaires usually have advantages that allow them to undertake projects knowing what they are giving up but are still able to follow through? Seems like a special case… worth investigating…
Maezawa spent his lunch money on something else....lol.
Maybe he invests heavily into D.E.I. in the Entertainment industry? 😂
Yep, apparently getting a woman in your life does that 🤣🤣🤣
It was always a bullshit mission from the start... in fact, surprised the fib took this long...
Facts yet another Elon shit on the wall moment starship may never be safe 4 humans might only be used as a space only transport 4 humans
100%. Free clout.
100%. SpaceX is a grift and CON job.
^ This.
The whole thing sounded like a pose.
And Tim the Dim bought into it, losing all credibility, making an International Fool of himself.
He deserved it!🤡🔖🚀🌚
His post did seem authentically naive about space program timelines, so I think the delays were genuinely a significant factor. Also, he likely was not familiar with the concept of "Elon Time" and was perhaps a bit gullible. I do think that the timeline was a significant factor, but I don't think it's the only factor either.
Yup. In REAL business, people are held to deadlines Musk is just a perpetual liar and CONman. He'll never go to Mars lol. Muskrats that believe he'll set up a colony there are imbeciles.
"Elon Time" = "By the end of next year" = ACTUALLY never.
Tesla Semi
Tesla Roadster
Mars mission by 2022
Hyperloops
Solar shingles
Full self driving.
All of which were going to happen, "by the end of next year"..... for the last 10 years
Not everyone knew how much of a conman Elon was at the time. In 2024 it's obvious AF
He's no longer a billionaire
@@ericchin739yep the guy who owns a rocket company controlling 80% of the launch market and the leading ev car company in amarica doesn’t ever deliver lol.
He is no longer a member of the 3 Comma Club. "Two sh**ty commas!"
I heard he even had to start driving a less expensive car with doors that swing out and not up. It's pretty sad.
Romantic imaginings unfulfilled do not constitute a tragedy. Shit happens.
I wonder if the guy got sick on his ISS flight?
About 1/3 of Astronauts experience significant space sickness, nausea and have an unpleasant time in zero g. This is after YEARS of training and preparation. It seems clear that if you are puking up your guts for most of your time in space it may make you less likely to go next time.
It also explains why they are so squirrelly about this. They don't want to let the cat out of the bag that space is hard and it may very well be that the general public is not suited for 0 g space flight.
The frequent vomiting is NEVER mentioned in the Media. I suffer from motion sickness; not just boats, even buses, trucks and cars.
Much as I would I would love to venture up into Orbit, I know that for me, the Sky IS the limit.
@@davidstevenson9517 I thought most are given anti sickness tablets to prevent this.
@@davidstevenson9517from what I heard/read it is not really a motion sickness, but something else, not totally understood yet. Even former fighter pilots experience it, also, it is completely random: some people get it and some don't.
The re-entry might have scared him.
NASA is paying SpaceX $2.9bn for HLS which includes practice cargo and crew landings followed by the actual landings. That $5bn cost includes about the half that was spent on stage 0. It's not development cost for starship (of course Musk still has to finance stage 0). I thought $250m for the dear moon mission was a proper price. Why would anyone think you could do it for less? I think the main negative for such a mission is that you cannot guarantee when starship will be ready.
No, NASA only pays when milestones are reached.
The last milestone was to land Starship (unmanned) on the moon in April 2024.....
It BARELY got into orbit two weeks ago.
SpaceX will run out of money before that milestone can be reached.
So for lunar re-entry. Two options, leave the starship in earth orbit, and refuel it, or transfer to crew dragon and just keep the start ship in orbit.
I don't buy a ticket five years in advance on a craft that doesn't yet exist. Watching rockets blow up on the pad or burn up on reentry has a way of reducing excitement as well.
Obviously cost is a factor, but the two main factors need to be discussed is that his company’s stock had dropped in value, about 50% since its height, and the cost of the program had risen by 50% because of the yen falling in value.
He sold huge amounts of his shares years ago. More than 50% as I recall it. Dude is loaded as is any billionaire minor or major. Sure, surrendering a few tens or hundreds of millions would sting a little, but given enough willpower, he could afford it. This mission was never really going to happen. It's just more official now.
Hope all is sorted at home!
Good critical look at the costs of starship. Hopefully more people will see the reality of even with fully reusable how expensive moon missions will be.
Expensive using Earth fuel. Moon manufactured fuel costs 15% of ANY Earth fuel.
NASA has known this for 50 years and expect every lunar lander design offered by private companies to be fueled by lunar Hydrogen i.e. "Sustainability"
Starship ISN'T fueled by hydrogen; Alpaca WASN'T; but Blue Moon IS and it will be based at GATEWAY for 15 lunar landing missions.
THAT is how Earth/Moon launch costs are reduced; Elon Musk knows this, that's why he passed Starship onto Gwyn Shotwell.
There was no way it was going to cost $10 million and I really don't know where The Angry Astronaut is pulling that from. When HLS happens, SpaceX will almost certainly be using expendable tankers at about $30 million a pop. Six of those, plus the actual HLS vehicle, will probably come out to like $300 million+. Still an absolute bargain next to the $4 billion it costs to send SLS to the moon, but $10 million? Ridiculous.
Space worms, he was worried about giant space worms.
BEWARE THE GREAT GALACTIC GHOUL!!!
Space Herpes are worse
Bet the Giant Space Worms weren't eating away at his conscience...
Space worms 🐛 are kind of nasty - especially when they eat your brain. I’m more concerned about space turtles 🐢 from Mars and the space slugs 🐌 from Pluto.
ruclips.net/video/2gvrgwiRQUk/видео.htmlsi=YZtJYYFwxU6NKtbf
The fact that Maezawa couldn't grasp the idea that there would need to be extensive testing before sending a ship full of non-astronauts around the moon is simply flabbergasting. Even NASA wants him to demonstrate IT TWICE before they'll put trained astronauts on it. So to expect that to be done so quickly is ridiculous and makes me wonder about his mental state.
non engineer
He probably got the idea from the Apollo program which (allegedly) sent humans directly to Lunar orbit without even sending a dog or monkey.
Musk has BS-ed a lots of people in his life. Rich, poor, smart, and idiots. God knows what promises he made to Maezawa.
because initially they wanted to use Falcon heavy + crew Dragon and that would be in the price range of 200-300 mio
it is 6 years and they couldn't even tell him how when or for how much they fly
He was promised a date. It's not his fault Musk is a liar and 8 years behind on his bullshit lies.
Well, most people wait for the ship(s) to have been built and the service up and running before they book a cruise. Maezawa should consider doing same thing when it comes to booking a cruise to the moon.
Presenting an opinion, even a very plausible opinion as fact in the title is dishonest clickbait. I think there is a probability you are right.
However we don't know that Maezawa would pay any increase in costs SpaceX incurs. He may have had an agreement for a fixed price and so was completely insulated from those increased costs. With that in place, SpaceX may have gone to Maezawa and said that if the mission was to proceed additional payment would be necessary. But we don't know that. We can only guess, as you have.
Therefore, stating as a fact that you know the *REAL reason SpaceX Dear Moon was canceled* is false. Your guess still sounds like the best guess we have.
Starship can’t get to the moon without being refuelled by a load of dedicated tanker flights. At this rate it will be many, many years before all the pieces are in place - it could even end up being a dead end design fork…
I don’t know, booster is already almost there. Heat shield is only bottleneck. As soon as solved, ships can be churned out fast.
Staggering level of ambition
Hope not years
I said last time you posted about maezawa canceling that he doesn't have the money for the launch and now you have mentioned it.
A much under price prestige mission, in return for the early trust, is not a too far out concept.
🚀🏴☠️🎸
that floaty violin player image will always make me laugh. The fact anyone ever took that seriously is just hilarious..
and yet some day we will see that image for real
She didn’t have no undies.
@@James-hd4ms I'm guessing we'll see that too - it's just a matter of time! 😅
@jeffjames3111 no, no we won't....reality will always collide with this fantasy image.
That movie, "The Fifth Element", has a LOT to answer for...
(Bigga-a-badda-boom!)
🚀⛴🌎🎼💥
Feel sorry for Tim, I think he should get a free seat on Starship from Elon if it gets human rated once.
I do too but not sure he is any more deserving than the others who missed out.
I feel very disapointed about this all. Do I now also deserve a free seat on Starship?!
🚀🏴☠️🎸
Not going to happen. Because no one is ever going to fly on Starship. It's pure Musk fantasy.
@@paulhaynes8045just like Ukraine winning 😂😂😂
Look Tim lucked out he’ll get to live thanks to not being on this junk.
I can't wait until SpaceX shows the mockup of the crew cabin and life support systems that they were going to need to have people on board. I'm thinking any day now they'll reveal pictures of the inside of this beautiful ship when it's human rated !
You betcha.
I never paid much attention to the Dear Moon thingy. Way too many hurdles to cross before such a stunt happens, regardless of costs.
Atmospheric pressure is under 15 psi, deep sea pressure is measured in thousands of psi. 15 psi is half to a third of the pressure of a bicycle tire.
Back to your angry best. When Maezawa first mooted a mission on Starship it was estimated he was paying somewhere between 100 and 250 million.
The bean counting figures you mentioned, made me think about the costs of SLS, JWST, and the Shuttle Program. NASA has spent WAY more on its singular projects than SpaceX has on Starship development.
About 50 billion in today's dollars for Shuttle development versus the 5 - 10 billion so far for Starship.... an Starship costs will eventually drop, while Shuttle costs continued to rise during its career....
And we all know that SLS is a absolute money pit...
Thanks for another AWESOME video, Jordan.
Take care of yourself and your family, and safe travels !!! 🤟
You can only watch so many Starship test flights gone bad before deciding you don't want to fly in one.
Because starship is a POS.
Realistically it would be best to have Starship never land on Earth and ferry humans to and from Starship in Earth orbit with Dragon. That way, it would not need a heat shield or flaps. Only the fuel tankers would need to return.
Remember that time Japanese railway got in serious trouble, because one of their trains departed like 40 sec early? Now consider Elon time.
Cultural differences. He obviously got annoyed af.
I enjoy your videos but just thought I would maybe let you know of the tesla pay package, even I think 40+ billion is too much but I did a bit of research as I was interested and also I don't totally trust news media. So when I went back and found the pay package was actually only worth just over $2 billion, yes still a lot of money but a vast difference. So the only reason it's now worth $40+ billion is the job he has done and kept doing with no monthly wage. Like I said, both vast amounts of money but vastly different
@@stuartjohnstone80 And that is also money that will be invested into his companies (or new endevours) that will create more jobs, research and services.
Love your classic intro!
He just can't afford it any more, right?
It's partly that, yes. His fortunes have more than halved in six years. The other thing, maybe more important, is that he already spent a fortune on a personal trip to space, so the novelty doesn't exist for him anymore.
No. Musk didn't deliver. Simple as that.
I think if he spoke to the community and said that he didn't have the money, they probably could raise it with a GoFundMe.
I don't think there's any way Maezawa was ever on the hook for development costs.
It's entirely possible that he's short on cash for other reasons. I believe I read that somewhere that his company wasn't doing so well, so his fortune isn't as large as it once was.
Oh I saw the thumbnail and thought oh yeah baby let's go...now to actually watch it...
Excellent! As usual, I always leave a like.
It is years behind schedule. The performance is completely suspect.. can it lift 100 tons or just 20 tons? And what is the status of the man-rated starship?
Valid concerns. Heat shield seems to be only big problem now.
Everything has to be turned around very fast. Booster seems almost there.
@@fionajack9160 heat shield is an issue. The fact that they have yet to launch with a simulated payload to see how it actually performs is an issue. The fact that there does not seem to be a starship that carry people is a concern. On orbit refueling is an issue. So far, they have been able to launch an empty stainless steel cylinder into a subtle trajectory. The dear Moon mission was probably 3 to 5 years away in the best case.
@@patricklueb122 13 to 15 yrs best case
i think it is ignorance to think space travel would be as cheap as the airlines in this lifetime. any early flight for non astronaut is just too early in its stage. first man mission of starship should be reserve for austronaut with expertise in enginnering and science. until the flght become more safe, then it can be open to private rich people to enable more money to fund the research to better space travel. as much as we want to think space travel is affordable, we cannot denied even airlines travel still expensive.
even if spacex achieve its target of 3 space flight in one day, if he is the only one doing it, he will not let it be cheap. that why it is important to have a competition. when there is no competition, the one who doing the service will control the price regardless the cost.
i don't think space travel would be as cheap as earth air travel. but it would be nice to have that option to travel not just within earth but beyond earth. humanity will expand and those who willing and afford to do that will go. the one who not will left on earth but earth still the mother land of those stay. when that happen, everyone who saw this video will long dead.
Bet Maezawa saw what happened to his Cybertruck order and said "Nah, pass."
I've got to wonder if anyone else will decide to put together another mission inspired by Dear Moon?
I hope things go as well as possible for your family situation.
Keep up the good work.
Cheers from Alaska
It was strongly implied that Mizawa had paid SpaceX an advance on the Dear Moon mission when it was announced. Did he get this money back or was it converted into preferred SpaceX stock?
I guess you mean shares not stocks? Also, it's not publically listed, soooooo
@@WillyoDeeplenty of investors have stock in SpaceX, it just wasn't for sale in public venues.
I have shares in multiple private companies, some eventually go public and my shares will be converted to another class
@@WillyoDee Nope. I meant what I said. The fact that it is not publicly (not publically - lol) listed is COMPLETELY irrelevant.
Too ambitious at this stage, Nasa should re examine Dr.Robert Zubrin's 'Moon Direct' plan utilising three dragon launches and a falcon 9 launch.
3 dragon flights to land a two man habitat, solar power station and microwave transmitter to service a ice to H2 O2 production plant, a robot rover with manipulator arms to hook it all up and a robot regolith miner and a hydro lox powered lander/tug to automatically lift off from the moon take a crew from the dragon in earth orbit return and refuel on the moon. Much of the equipment easy to develop only the Tug being significant item and the system could be tested with a number of unmanned flights.
Because there is no such thing as a robot regolith miner, and we have no idea if we can get reasonable amounts of water out of polar craters, given that the water appears to be mixed into rock at relatively tiny percentages and at near absolute zero temperatures, so cold and hard that freeing those rocks may require explosives. Its really a more ambitious plan than relying on humans to do the work, but using humans can't give you confidence it will work either. We need to send teams to explore and take samples in polar craters before any serious plans could be made for ISRU production on the moon.
A far more credible plan is just sending Starships to land on Mars, building a massive cash of equipment and supplies, and then sending manned crews once the cache is large enough. They'll have years of supplies to sustain them while they establish ISRU working well enough to return, while new flights bring new equipment if existing ISRU tech fails, or tankers full of methane if necessary to return before it works. Because of its atmosphere (even as thin as it is) Mars requires less energy to land on, meaning we can land far larger payloads, and makes its environment far easier to survive in than the moon (the moon has a far higher and lower temperatures, two weeks of night without solar power, razor sharp dust that quickly wears holes in suits, etc) while Mars has water available at every latitude, much easer to access resources such as CO2 from atmosphere, iron meteorites on the surface, etc.
If enough fuel can be loaded, in Earth orbit, in order to get to the moon & then back into Earth orbit, then the extra velocity of a return from the moon won't be a problem for the heat-shield, and transfer to a crew-Dragon, might not be needed. Just slow down to Earth orbit speed, then reenter.
I reckon he realised the amount of money he was spending and changed his mind.
The intro is AMAZING
@14:08: An ablative heat-shield underneath heat-shield tiles? Anyone remember the US Space Shuttle? One of the largest costs were re-tiling those heat-shield panels between flights! So, the 2024 "state-of-the-art" hasn't progressed beyond 1980's tech??? Say it isn't so... 🤔
I'm glad Angry is here to dispel nonsense before it gets going. This could easily be spinned into "NASA doesn't want a bunch of artists and musicians causing a ton of UAP flaps."
If it looks too good to be true, well then there you have it already.
An interesting factor few talked about was that he would have owned copyrights to all the creative works deriving from the mission.
So at it's heart it was a money-making venture, and once the schedule slipped, perhaps it was too much to bear?
Any opinions?
Maezawa realized that as of 2024, Starship was nothing more than the world's largest gas-guzzling sub-orbital garbage can...and That Elon Musk was not the new Leonardo DaVinci; he was the new P.T.Barnum.
With this thinking, are you an artist?
Since it's not landing, they could carry extra fuel for braking on the way back. I also bet they'll do one or more skips.
For 20 tons to orbit price is around 50M dollars on other vehicles. Starship can do at least 100tons.. would be 250M per launch revenue..So they can sell 1 starship to LEO for 50M dollar easy.
if they can find enough customers with a 100 tons of stuff to launch into orbit.
@DavidKnowles0 somehow..if you build it..people will come.. what a rideshare mission that would be..150tons.. 15.000x10kg. Every university can launch ..Mr. Beast will have his own 9 meter telescope.. :)
Me thinks Maezawa got sick of Elon's Kool-Aid.
Wouldn't it be possible for them to do a few skips through the atmosphere to scrub off speed before doing re-entry? I don't know what the orbital mechanics, or fuel requirements would be for that.
It seems more and more likely that the Apollo landings were a one off that will never be repeated, except possibly for the Chinese, whose government does not have to worry about the costs and people opposing the idea. But for the U.S., Neil Armstrong’s “one giant leap for mankind” may well turn out to be one giant leap to nowhere. The Artemis programme does not have much public support and it becomes more likely the whole thing could eventually be canceled before a single moon landing takes place. Certainly if there is a disaster with the loss of astronaut lives, a terrifying possibility, though still small, with the first Starliner flight plagued by leaks, or on another flight, the whole Western crewed spaceflight programme could come to an end, or at the very least set back by years, as what happened with the Challenger and Columbia tragedies.
Real spaceflight is not like Star Trek and never will be.
It's because he invested in the Acolyte...the DEI-Jedi!
Lol
he would lose only 28% of his budget if he invested in Disney for the last 5 years. But even awful Acolyte can sink so big a corporation. But DEI actually does.
Wow! And I was only kidding when I made that D.E.I. joke. I guess it's inevitable, really.
Thank god the prequels have held up to this day. The sequel trilogy was woke crapola
I remember watching the announcement live. I could swear Elon said Maezawa already paid. So does he get a refund this way?
Coming back from the Moon StarShip would have to dissipate twice the energy. LEO is 27kph, Lunar return is 40kph. Kinetic energy is proportional to velocity squared so (40^2)/(27^2) = 2.2 A ton of work would have to be done to the heat shield to make that possible plus propulsive landing hasn't even been done with an unmanned Starship from orbit much less with people on board. This was feeling like STS-51. I'm glad they canceled it.
Can Angry explain the follow :
>How will Starship cost many times less than the much smaller Falcon ?
>The quickest turnaround for a Falcon rocket is about 4 weeks, how do you expect Starship to launch multiple times a today?
> What are you smoking?
@@kurknielsen 1: Full rapid reusability. That will lead to it being far cheaper thant something that is only semi reusable. They are also simplifying lots of technologies to make it even cheaper.
2: By landing on the launch pad by the mechazilla arms. It will then get refueled very quickly.
3: He's not smoking, only actually reading up on topics before talking about them. You should try it sometime!
@@aprilpower1158 o
OMG, what are you smoking? or maybe it’s a lack of oxygen up there in elons butt?
I still fell starship will be atleast 100 million
No way falcon 9 is being 67 mn and starship will be 2-10... No way...and that's hoping it's gonna be fully reusable coz those 10 refueling launches are gonna be super costly...make it 150 million per launch "atleast"
The fuel costs for a launch are tiny compared to the cost of the vehicle. We're talking less than $1.5 million for the launch. Assuming 10 launches, you're still not even to what it costs to build a F9 booster (roughly $20 million). A single Starship launch costing less than $5 million is entirely feasible.
Would have enjoyed meeting you in SC
Mars isn't going to catch Starship with chopsticks. There's a way to make Starship that can land and launch on it's own standing. There's a way to make it with 75 percent less tiles reducing it's weight and another way to make it so that it doesn't have to do it's gut wretching belly flop. There's a way to make it more reusable and have the tile section more refurbishable to rotate it's heat tile sections.
What is that way .
The good reason to cover up would be the potential of doing this mission 6-12 years from now and wanting to stay on their good side.
When SpaceX needs to do a load test, could the load be a full fuel tank? Two birds, one stone type of thing.
OFT-1 in April 20, 2023, stoned all the birds to death at Boca Chica Wildlife Reserve.
Have you forgotten, SpaceX FanBoy?🚀💥🐦🐢💀
Yes. All True.
It's inevitable. This kind of mission will eventually happen. And it won't be a one off either. It's to take as long as it takes. Not a day sooner.
those tiles are going to be the Achilles heel of this system. how are you gonna come back from mars if a few of them already fell off? you'd need to bring spare ones, and do a spacewalk to attach them, which no doubt would add further complexity to the design. Or I suppose just dock with a fresh one in LEO and then come down, requiring even more launches.
Rapidly refurbish-able might be the design goal soon, with rapidly re-usable being a much longer term thing.
Almost impossible to dock on orbit without a heat shield to slow you down first using the atmosphere.
I think the better question is “Why did they plan such a ridiculous mission in the first place?”
Easy answer..... investor money.
Why does Musk make all sorts of promises and never delivers?!
Yeah.... to keep the investor money coming.
It's a grift
Hype generation, something Musk et al excel at.
Once Starship is up and running it willl take little to do something like this. I'm sure the first manned trip outside of orbit will be around the moon anyway, doesn't matter who funds it, no big loss.
In our dreams maybe.
@@jimmystrickland1034 Is it really that hard for you to use your brain cells to think some years ahead? Do you really think Starship won't be cappable to do trips around the moon in the 2030s and 2040s?
@@aprilpower1158 it will be scrap before then. It’s a heavy payload launch vehicle not a lunar lander. A 5 yr old with DS could figure that out.
@@jimmystrickland1034 Cute. Why would it get scrapped exactly? It is already 100% financed by Starlink and its future is guaranteed thanks to heavy lifting, like space stations, bigger satellites, missions throughout the Solar System, and colonization of Mars.
@@aprilpower1158 it would make a nice lunar space station and moon base. Also, a nice ferry to mars. But a reliable HLS system it is NOT, and NEVER will be unfortunately.
5:39 that’s is type best way to go, if Elon Musk had developed Falcon Heavy to Moon missions US would likely to be in the Moon right now, all would needed was simple Lunar lander and two Falcon Heavy.
NooO! It was cancelled, bummer
The whole DearMoon project seemed scammy from the beginning, MZ just came across as living in a fantasy world. I feel sorry for for all the “crew” who had their hopes raised and then dashed.
It's just remarkable that y'all won't mention the obvious complicity of Musk and Spacex in such a hype generation scam. It's inextricably true. If MZ was living in a fantasy world, Musk and Spacex were too because they made a significant thing out of it.
@@sunienizami Give it another decade and a mission like that could actually happen.
@@aprilpower1158 No, it will not. Starship will struggle to be man-rated for launch let alone landing.
@@sunienizami There is no reason for it to not be human rated by 2034. First we will see Artemis 3 and Artemis 4, then hopefully way more manned missions.
Can't wait to see how wrong you and all other SpaceX haters will be. Its gonna be a truly glorious day!
@@aprilpower1158 because it's a fundamentally dangerous design.
I can wait, because waiting is what we'll be doing when it comes to SpX's lofty promises.
Getting Smarter Every Day.
I didn't get your idea about crewed dragon missions with transfer. You'd still need to sync speeds both ways. Also prices in $10M ballpark make no sense. He shelled $88M just for his ISS ticket. From the first presentation Musk said Maezawa's contribution was significant part of development costs of BFR/Starship, not just a ticket for single flight. I'm thinking ballpark of $0.5B.
It took less than a decade to get people on the moon in 1969 and that was before computers or, really - we have more technology in a _doorbell_ today than what was available during the Apollo program!
It doesn't take a computer to get there and back. It's a ballistic trajectory.
@@Bryan-Hensley You can not get from Low Earth Orbit to orbiting the Moon using a ballistic trajectory. Orbital insertion requires a precise powered maneuver.
@@codetech5598 I didn't studder. I don't know how to make it any simpler for you to understand.
Fuel tanks are in harm's way.
Personal I believe that dear moon will be brought back, just in a different form. because it’s an awesome and inspiring concept. (That’s just pure speculation on my part I could be 100% wrong lol)
😂.... goon.
Agreed, and I think Elon would make that happen.
I disagree with you. We don't know if SpaceX set Miyazawa a fixed price for the mission in which case he would not have to pay more. That is an assumption on your part. I agree with you that Miyazawa has lost a lot of money. He likes to spend and has made bad investments. Its my understanding he lost half his fortune, so I think that is the main reason he pulled out. I also don't agree with you that the new heat shield structure is the final design. The goal is indeed to have rapid turn around so they are simply experimenting with different materials, and this phase is temporary. Also I disagree with your comments about the Tesla pay package. Its not a pay package. Its a stock option package. If Musk increased the value of Tesla 10 fold he gets 10% company stock options. Otherwise he gets nothing. He actually has to give Tesla over 7 billion in cash to buy the options and he can't exercise them for 5 years. Your not the only one that calls it a pay package, unfortunately.
It was cancelled because Starship is a disaster that will never be human rated.
Why go through with something that is clearly never going to happen.....
Even if Starship is never human rated, they could do what the Ares rocket was going to do, ie. split the mission with cargo starship lifting cargo only, and after successfully achieving orbit, a crew Dragon is launched for rendezvous and also the ride home.
@1944GPW even to do that we are still a lifetime away from. Until they can launch 20+ Starships just to refuel 1 to go to the moon....
@@mervstash3692 They said the same thing when SpaceX got the mission to go to the ISS. Come back in 10 years and lets see how your statement aged.
Such a shame they didn't stick with the original plan of FH + Crew Dragon. Would have certainly succeeded and been just as much of an experience for the (fewer) passengers. TBH I never saw the advantage of SS for this mission, do you really need a huge spaceship? The folks on Inspiration 4 looked quite happy in Crew Dragon. This must go down as one of the biggest missed opportunities in space history.
Crew Dragon? Hurtling back from the Moon at 40,000 kph to re-enter Earths atmosphere?
LEO re-entry is from 27,500; SpaceX have not had ANY experience at such a dangerous maneuver as lunar return.
When are you SpaceX FanBoys stop talking about things you know nothing about?
If Maezawa wanted to cancel Dear Moon then that's his business. He was paying the check. He does not owe anyone an explanation for it.
The Lizard people finally got hold of him and made it clear to stay away.
Well this is an interesting channel because you're both interested in commercial space flight and also interested in UFO crash reverse engineering. I've thought for a while that commercial space flight was going to get pretty sticky because the chance of encountering extraterrestrials in space is so high and civilians are..civilians.
Now that DearMoonMission has been canceled, Mr Maezawa is free to used Blue Origin New Shepard system more affordable for that kind of man, I guess he will look good in a blue uniform ringing the bell and guaranteed to be an astronaut according to Mr Bezos standards. Thank you Mr Maezawa for your contribution to commercial space !
I do not think it is necessary for Starship to re-enter the Earth's atmosphere if you instead meet up with a small re-entry vehicle. Then just refuel Starship in orbit again.
In essence, that is the mission for HLS. It will be reusable but will have no heat shield.
That implies inspection and repair in orbit and I'm not sure anyone has mentioned this or other implications of reusability plus never landing for service.
It takes far more propellants to brake down to LEO from a Lunar return than it would to land directly. Likely more than it could carry. Edited to add: the orbital speed at LEO is in the neighborhood of 7.8 km/s and the re-entry speed from a free return trajectory would be around 11.1 km/s. Taking along propellants for a delta-v of 3.3 km/s is a tall order.
It would still be going several thousand km per hour faster than an orbit vehicle
LOL. It was the very idea of Starship - to be reusable and fly 3 times per day, replace intercontinental flights. And now you're speaking about small re-enrty vehicles.
@@SkyStudioWest The context here is a return from a Lunar free return trajectory, not a single stage suborbital hop.
Anyone that thought a human rated Starship, even one not intended for re-entry, would be flying before 2025 was kidding themselves. I'll admit that even I was kidding myself thinking it was something we could see in 2025... but even in 2020 I accepted that was an outside hope. I cannot believe that he really thought we'd have a Starship going around the moon in 2023... it was a pipedream.
At the same time, I also refuse to believe he canceled this because of timeframes. Why on Earth would you cancel right as Starship is gaining momentum, right before IFT4 demonstrates controlled reentry of the booster and Starship, already demonstrated internal fuel transfer and is realistically only 6-9 months from demonstrating propellant transfer between two ships. SpaceX is finally convincing skeptics... and he backs out. No way.
all 4 test flights of Starship were a complete horror when compared to Appollo:
1) Launch pad destroyed
2) staging fail
3) couldn't fly straight and had issues opening/closing a garage door + booster rammed with mach 1 into the ocean
4) 1 engine failed and Starship melted
They were able to improve every time a little bit - step by step - but it will be at least another 30 steps to the moon.
So what is in your opinion a realistic date for the second functioning fully tanked Starship in orbit? (the first is needed for testing)
Keep in mind that this requires about a minimum of ~2x10 refills x45 engine starts and shut-offs (33 for the booster, 6 for starship + a few for align in orbit / landing).
"before 2025 was kidding themselves"
Musk is bullshitting about 'Mars in 2 years" for a decade now. It is a complete mystery why anybody on the planet would take him serious or agree to a contract with him.
@@benjaminmeusburger4254
You are comparing apples to oranges. Apollo had something on the order of $165 billion in FY2024 funding. Heck, even SLS has something on the order of $25 billion (and another $25-30 billion for Orion and CSM). Starship is at.... $5 billion. If this were Saturn V or SLS, with that much funding it'd still be on a white board. Instead its made it to orbit twice. Moreover, you don't seem to be aware of the standard for superheavy rocket launches SpaceX is trying to change - both SLS AND Saturn V caused heavy damage to the launch pads and towers. Don't fool yourself into thinking otherwise.
Finally, as far as we know, the latest test launch went perfect, with the exception of the overheating during reentry. That already makes it more capable than both Saturn V and SLS... significantly more so. Starship will I have no doubt take the same path Falcon 9 did - boom, boom, bang, success, success, success, success, success, failure, success x 250+ (Falcon 9).
@@benjaminmeusburger4254 What do you mean second functioning fully fueled tank? Do you mean when do I think they will demonstrate filling up one Starship in orbit with another? As in proof of concept for what is needed for Lunar and Mars missions? My guess.... early 2025. I think they'll launch 2 more times this year. Then demonstrate Starship to Starship propellant transfer in 2025.
I do think the next launch this year will be in August... and if that goes well... October.
@@benjaminmeusburger4254 I also highly doubt the refill count is accurate for a host of reasons. For starters, its been said that Starship likely only needs 60-70% refill in orbit... so around 750t of propellant. The upgraded 9 engine second stage Starship is expected to be able to do around 125-150t with full reuse. Figure 6 launches to allow for some boiloff.
However, I don't actually think they'll bother with reuse for some of the early HLS tanker launches. They can make these stripped down tankers stupid cheap, and the math for a reused booster and throwaway second stage comes to around 225-250t to orbit. Now we are talking about only needing 3-4 refuelings.
So, my gut is, they do an uncrewed HLS test flight in 2026 using a HLS that has no lifesupport or inside at all really (NASA already approved this). They make the stripped down HLS and 3-4x stripped down HLS tankers with no flaps, TPS, or anything. They launch them all, back to back, over the course of a week. Nothing special to it.
@@benjaminmeusburger4254 I would have agreed were it not for that idiotic first paragraph.
Can the dragon 2 heat shield handle lunar return reentry speeds of 24000 25009 MPH?
Would someone explain why Starship needs to refuel to get to the Moon while the Apollo missions did not?
Yep, been asking that for a long time as well.
Starship will have a much larger mass. Apollo could sent up to 50 tons to the moon (over all and for everything from tis point on). Starship will carry twice of that as sheer payload alone, beside the mass of the ship which will be multiple or even 10 times heavier (I do not know it exactly). Short answer: proportions
@@fastendshorter answer; stupid.
Because Apollo ended up being relatively tiny by the time it got to the moon
Starship is 220,000 pounds once it gets to orbit with a 100,000 pound payload but it is empty (or it is carrying the 100k in extra fuel). This is about 10% of the fuel you need to move a giant ship like that to the Moon and back.
Apollo capsule was 90,000 pounds on orbit with the Lunar rendezvous kick stage and the lunar lander which included all the lunar kick stage fuel.
Starship was not designed to get to the Moon but to Colonize Mars. You could easily get to the Moon using Starship by launching a 90,000 pound Apollo style ensemble from Orbit.
Apollo returned about 400KG of rock to Earth over a half dozen missions.
Starship will be able to return 50,000 KG of rock to Earth over a single mission.
Maezawa is having money problems and since it's not happening anytime soon, he canceled.
Ancient ruins on the moon
would they really let the public go to the moon? it’s been well documented that there are structures, glass domes, radar dishes, buildings etc.
seeing as this kind of discovery by non governmental/military types would be catastrophic for the UFO embargo, do you think that there would be “unfortunate accidents” before this could be achieved?
You're a Moon Hoax Lunatic. _"it’s been well documented that there are structures, glass domes, radar dishes, buildings etc."_ is a lie. There are no structures not made by man on Earth. Only spacecraft are on the Moon. Then you jump off the deep end, _"it’s been well documented that there are structures, glass domes, radar dishes, buildings etc."_ No. I'm not a Moon Hoax Lunatic. You are.
There is no conspiracy. There are not aliens on the Moon. There is no documentation of those imaginary aliens on the Moon. No structures. No glass domes. No radar dishes. No buildings. No UFO embargo.
Of course you could prove me wrong. But you won't.
Starship will never come to the Moon. It will never be fully reusable. Are we people delusional?
Ah yes, the "you are here" list. I've seen it. We're about 2/3rds of the way down the list, and I believe "Starship will never have a crew" is the next one down, if you're keeping count. Won't be long before somebody will have to think of a few more things SpaceX hasn't done yet, just to keep the list current.
@@Asterra2 I used to be a fan and I watched the test launch of Falcon heavy with a red Tesla roadster in fascination. I am wondering, whether you watched this very video to the very end? Have you heard about being over budget by several billion dollars? Have you heard about heat tiles and the coating under the tiles? Musk reinvented underground travel with hyper loops, made tunnels much cheaper. Right? Remember that fancy CGI where a car goes underground and gets carried by a rolling cart with insane speed. Do you still believe Musk and his engineers will implement it? Do you remember the CGI of a Starship starting from a platform near NYC, used instead of planes. Do you still think it will become a reality? I watched Thunderfoot even when I was a fan of Musk, just because I make sure to listen to the critics. Since then, many predictions of Thunderfoot came true. Next on the list are Bankruptcy of Tesla, and Bankruptcy of SpaceX. I would not like to witness that. I would really like to have a great US car manufacturer and a space company. However, Musk is more and more a drug-addicted fraud and liar.
Did you know that Starship is an empty tube that does not hold atmosphere? And even in such a state, all the rockets and the main vessel barely have fuel to make the orbit and to return? The whole Starship project is an insanely inefficient and nonsensical idea. It is a giant step back compared to Appolo design.
And reusable flyback first stages will never happen. Space X will never launch more than the rest of the world combined. Oh, right...
@@redpillcoach1855 And Hyperloop will never happen. And underground tunnels with carts carrying your car at speeds of 60-100 MPH under the city will never happen. And full self-driving from a parking lot in LA to a parking lot in NYC "with zero touching of any controls" will never happen. And the Tesla Model 3 as a robotaxi making you $20K per year will never happen. And a tourist/artist flyby of the moon will never happen. SpaceX cities on Mars will never happen.
Correction: Musk did not get "paid" 40 billion from Tesla - he got options to BUY ( read that .. BUY ) shares of Tesla at a cheaper price after which he may decide to sell to make $ .
Good. They won't be killed during reentry.
@@alphatech8524 You do realize that will be fixed by manned flight right?
As lunar re entry is a lot more challenging than orbital re entry would it not be possible to return from the moon into orbit around the earth first and then make an orbital re entry in the usual way?
You would need to shed the extra velocity you got from coming in from lunar orbit to low-earth orbit, this means carrying extra fuel for a deorbit burn, means much more fuel-mass and more complex orbital maneuvers.
This will drive the costs up even further and complicates the mission a lot more.
Look at the ‘simple’ flights to and from the ISS and you’ll see things aren’t that simple, just ask Boeing.
As Glen pointed out, It takes far more propellants to brake down to LEO from a Lunar return than it would to land directly. The orbital speed at LEO is in the neighborhood of 7.8 km/s and the re-entry speed from a free return trajectory would be around 11.1 km/s. Taking along propellants for an additional delta-v of 3.3 km/s is a tall order.
Starship could definitely fly multiple times per day. It just won't be the same ship. I don't see anything wrong with that. If they are far less expensive to build than a Space Shuttle, then why not build 30 of them?
the plan is currently about 1000
I expect there will be something like 10x as many Starships in circulation as Boosters, because of the time it takes to load up Starship with whatever is needed next, vs. the time it takes to put more fuel in a Booster.
They are going to build 1,000 Starships. Superheavy will fly multiple times a day soon, probably this year. I doubt Starship will ever fly multiple times a day but will definitely go multiple times a week.
I see a lot of people commenting that the billionaire no longer has the money as an excuse, well why do these same commentors try raising the money for the same mission for themself . . .