Keir Giles - Why we should not Fear that Russian Defeat would be more Dangerous than Russian Victory
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- Опубликовано: 8 июн 2024
- GUEST: Keir Giles - Senior consulting fellow with Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House.
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Calls to treat as legitimate the ‘security concerns’ raised by Russia, and to account for these in a future settlement of the war in Ukraine, disregard the fact that Moscow’s requirements are fundamentally incompatible with European security. Proponents of a settlement in the war on Ukraine often put forward the idea that Russian ‘security concerns’ must be taken into account in any such settlement, but also in broader revisions to the European security system.
These proposals echo the Russian information campaign over the past 30 years to persuade European publics that there can be ‘no security in Europe without Russia’. They provide false support to the argument that Western security policy after the collapse of the USSR unnecessarily encroached on core Russian interests by expanding NATO and forcing Moscow to militarize its foreign policy. In this telling, Russia was merely challenging what it viewed as an unjust European security order.
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SPEAKER:
Keir Giles is a senior consulting fellow with the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House. Keir has supported Chatham House in its Russia-focused research since 2013 and previously worked with the BBC Monitoring Service and the UK Defence Academy, where he wrote and advised on Russian military, defence, and security issues - including human factors influencing Russian security policy, Russian strategy and doctrine, the Russian view of cyber and information security, and Russia’s relations with its neighbours in northern Europe.
Keir is the author of multiple publications explaining the Russian approach to warfare. These include NATO’s Handbook of Russian Information Warfare; and Moscow Rules: What Drives Russia to Confront the West. He examined consistent patterns of Western success and failure in deterring Russian aggression. His most recent book is Russia’s War on Everybody: And What it Means for You, which describes the human impact of Russia’s campaigns to acquire power and influence around the world.
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BOOKS:
Russia's War on Everybody: And What it Means for You (2022)
Moscow Rules: What Drives Russia to Confront the West (2019)
The Turning Point for Russian Foreign Policy (2017)
The State of the NATO-Russia Reset (2011)
Potential Challenges to Public Order and Social Stability in the Russian Federation (2011)
PURCHASE A COPY:
www.bloomsbury.com/uk/russias...
US - amzn.to/45tg0Aa
UK - amzn.to/44uEkQL
"Moscow Rules: What Drives Russia to Confront the West" - amzn.to/3LePv6K
"Russia's War on Everybody: And What it Means for You" - amzn.to/3aPtKxB
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LINKS:
/ keirgiles
www.chathamhouse.org/2023/06/...
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SUMMARY:
Moscow’s war of reconquest against Ukraine has confirmed in the most brutal terms how Russia rejects the values underpinning European security - the same values agreed between Moscow and the West at the end of the Cold War. As a revisionist power, Russia has made itself the primary obstacle to peace and security in Europe and beyond. For stability to be restored and protected, it is essential that the outcome of the war in Ukraine leads to a situation in which - in addition to the expulsion of occupying forces - the exercise of Russian power is contained rather than encouraged. Over time, Russia’s leadership must also be persuaded to renounce its expansionist ambitions.
It’s now or never for Ukraine. A protracted or frozen conflict benefits Russia and hurts Ukraine, as does a ceasefire or negotiated settlement on Russia’s terms. If Ukraine is to avoid these outcomes and turn tenacious defence and incremental battlefield gains into outright victory, it needs far more ambitious international military assistance than it has received to date. This report presents the case for an immediate and decisive increase in such support, seeks to dispel overhyped concerns about provoking Russia, and counsels against accommodating Moscow’s demands.
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#keirgiles #chathamhouse #ukraine #ukrainewar #russia #zelensky #putin #propaganda
#war #disinformation #hybridwarfare #foreignpolicy #communism #sovietunion #postsoviet
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CHAPTERS:
00:00 Introduction
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PLATFORMS:
Twitter: / curtainsilicon
Instagram: / siliconcurtain
Podcast: open.spotify.com/show/4thRZj6...
Linkedin: / finkjonathan
Patreon: / siliconcurtain
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As an American, I'm just sick of this stalling. Give Ukraine everything they need to remove all Russian occupiers from their territory.
It is soooo frustrating!
Oh really when are the boots on the ground coming
@@goenzoy Unlike your first go-to, Ukrainians aren't even asking for boots on the ground, they need munitions, now, not 6 months from now!
get as many Americans as you can find to write angry letters or emails to your government, public opinion is important, especially for the upcoming election, make your voices heard
They first thing what I saw when war started was Ukraine journalist asking Boris Johnson for a no-fly zone
Let us not forget that the USSR's humiliating defeat in Afghanistan arguably did not make the Russians more dangerous.
Exactly. After major defeats, there tends to be major political and social change in Russia- not all of it is necessarily bad!
And the US decided to have a go at it too.
clearly this channel is one sided and try to spread missiinformation, so what about the hundred of thousands of russians who are against the war and want peace? you know perfectly that a defeat of russia will literally destroy there life.
why you NEVBER critsize ukranian participation on the genocide war of irak for example?...you are so full of propaganda@@SiliconCurtain
Was that the same place that the Americans set tail and ran away 2 years ago?😂🤣🤣
@@SiliconCurtain
Keep dreaming, m0r0n!😂🤣🤣
I don’t fear Russian defeat - I fully support my country (UK) arming Ukraine to the teeth to facilitate Russian defeat.
I wish we would do more like lifting all restrictions on donated weaponry and supplying long range missiles so Ukraine can hit targets inside Russia.
🇺🇦🇬🇧
clearly this channel is one sided and try to spread missiinformation, so what about the hundred of thousands of russians who are against the war and want peace? you know perfectly that a defeat of russia will literally destroy there life.
why you NEVBER critsize ukranian participation on the genocide war of irak for example?...you are so full of propaganda
UK? You mean Britainistan? How is your Indian Sunak? And you people worry about Ukraine?😂🤣🤣
Looks like I have triggered a Putin rent boy 😂 @@user-ul3hk6hf2e
@@user-ul3hk6hf2e How's Sunak, you ask.
Well he's doing reasonably well, and remains in favour of press freedom laws, term limits, regular elections, and other measures to safeguard democracy from degenerating towards autocracy; he's civilised to the extent of being against torture, rape and other war crimes.
You think we in UK should be worried about some characteristic of Sunak? Would you like to be specific?
@@davidwright5094 Cuck. He's an Indian. He shouldn't be here at all.
I really enjoyed Keir’s book Russias war on everyone. He’s an amazing guest who has the ability to get straight to the heart of the matter. Thank you Jonathan for having such high quality people .
A very apt title.
💯
Excellent interview, thank you. Defeat of Russia is a must, not a nice to have. Only then positive changes can begin to make the world safer.
What, safe for America to carry on killing civilians towards their aim of control. How sad people like yourself have such a blinkered and biased view of the world. America are the worlds problem, not Russia. Try comparing the amount of foreign military bases each country has and see who the problem is ........
You are right. Russia must be defeated. "There is no substitute for victory." General Douglas MacArthur
Which he did not achieve in Korea. he ignored intelligence that Chinese Troops were massing and allowed his army to be encircled. Luckily it was the First Marine Division who withdrew under constant fire and these brave men became known as the Chosin few after the reservoir they were encamped around.
This ended Macarthur's military career as he was fired by Truman.
@@johnbaker5565 ... which underscores the OP's point
@@jacqdanieles Which underscored the point that victory was not defined. Ukraine has a task to expel Russians, when they are expelled that is victory. Russia cannot say what victory is, only continuous war. Both sides were sick of fighting in Korea, and we remain in this situation today.
American could not define victory in South East Asia and became entangled with defeat the only solution. This was repeated in Iraq and Afghanistan. Now Russia is in this position a trap it cannot escape from.
@@johnbaker5565 Russia is doing a war of conquest. It’s a suicide to stubbornly seek victory here while taking high level of losses. War of conquest is a luxury and hobby. Requires years of preparation. Throwing everything into this kind of war can lead to expansionist losing his own land. That’s why, Putin is looking like a clown. Iraqis say they never saw anything like the war in Ukraine.
@@johnbaker5565 Your comment of Ukraine situation is most cleaver and intelligent . sadly most people don't comprehend this war.
A superbly informative & thought-provoking discussion!👍👍I really appreciate the willingness of Mr. Giles to tackle fallacies & gross misunderstandings which are (IMHO) poisoning & neutering U.S. foreign policy, and effectively leading to much more suffering among Ukrainians & vulnerable people around the world. I will also thank Jonathan for asking extremely timely & highly-relevant questions, as well as seeking suggestions from Mr. Giles re what Jonathan's followers can do to 'educate' & pressure politicians regarding their ill-informed decisions about Russia & support for Ukraine. As has been the case with most of Jonathan's guests, I would have remained absolutely glued to my laptop if the discussion had been extended for several more hours! 👍👍
Mark Milley should be fired and replaced with General Ben Hodges or General Petraeus. Milley is being manipulated by the Russians.
"We need to focus on China" narrative doesn't make sense either. I bet China would have already attempted something with Taiwan had we not given aid to Ukraine. Now, it's not enough aid, and they sure are dragging thier feet on EVERYTHING.
They are moronsssssssssss!😂
You nailed it!
@@robertatkins9419Ho Ho Ho, Santa Claus speaking
Excellent, guys, thank you! That are exactly the words that should be spoken by the key politicians of the Weat today!
Hello from Ukraine. Thank you very much!
👍
💙💛
Great interview Johnathan, keep up the great work Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 🇬🇧
Wonderful interview. The Russian people, the Russian culture is so evil. Yes celebrate Stalin you idiot population 😢
So crazy that WW1 & WW2 mentality is still very much alive and well in Motherless Russia. Celebrate your evil heros Soly & Margarite... ugh.
The US defence budget is $1.77 Trillion
They've given Ukraine $60 Billion (mostly kit that would need decommissioning and replacing soon anyway)
This is 1/44 of the US defence budget
So what? This war has nothing to do with my country. This is a European problem, and THEY have the means to deal with it, if they can muster the will.
There are already vast cemeteries in Europe filled with young Americans. No more endless war.
To quote the interview with Steven Moore.
“…
The USA has spent roughly $24 billion on military aid to Ukraine, which is roughly 3% of the USA military’s own budget. Ukraine remains in control of roughly 83% of its territory and USA intelligence believes the war has severely degraded Russia’s military power and its ability to threaten NATO allies.
…”
Annual US defense budget is approximately $850b. Where did you get $1.78 trillion?
@@deanejoyce5393Russia holds 90% of the territory contested. Don't think they can have no power. They have the power to launch and set off missles 150 miles in the air that will, in 1 year, kill 9 out 10 people in the US and Europe. And nothing could stop it.
I'm seeing a defense budget about $850B, and about $77B being sent to Ukraine. Admittedly, that figure is exaggerated as it fails to account for the depreciated nature of alot of what we've send. $77B is also all aid, not just gear. That's about 9% of our annual defense spending, or 0.33% of GDP. That's the highside estimate.
Let's ignore the clear and obvious moral good of supporting Ukraine in their quest to control their own destinies after standing up for their own freedom and democracy THREE TIMES now (Orange Revolution, Euromaidan, and now this war). Let's ignore the litany of war crimes as Russia abducts children, loots, targets crowded theaters, is caught on video gunning down civilians without cause, mass graves in Bucha and elsewhere. Let's ignore that Russia has OPENLY used genocidal language when talking about this war and about Ukraine and the fact that this wouldn't even be the first time Russia tried to genocide Ukraine.
Even if you ignore all that, and JUST focus on geopolitical self interest (because you're arguing against a sociopath who doesn't care about any of that), you will struggle to find a better bang-for-your-buck investment than spending 9% of your defense budget to deal a MAJOR, debilitating strategic defeat to arguably your 2nd biggest geopolitical adversary. We're spending so little and getting so much. And without committing your own troops?
We're showing every imperialist out there thinking of conquering nearby smaller democracies why they shouldn't do it. This is what deterrence requires. People worried about China need to understand that this war, and showing that the west actually has some backbone, is doing more to deter an invasion of Taiwan than any other action we could take...short of selling Taiwan more weapons. Which we should also be doing. Not because we want war....but because we recognize that the best way to avoid war is to make sure aggressors understand clearly how bloody they're going to get if they try. Russia invaded Ukraine because we spent 20 years teaching Putin that there would never be consequences for his actions
Sorry. Had to vent. Thanks for listening.
Thank you for this informative discussion. It is refreshing to listen to a clear-eyed portrayal of the danger Russia presents to the civilized world.
Only 1 nation starts wars and destabilizations around the world, and that’s the US.
Pathetic troll
Only one nation is a clear threat to the world, and it spent the last century and more on near constant invasions. The only silver lining is they always fail to win their wars, and be it Vietnam or Afghanistan the people are left wondering what the point of it all was.
A very good guest! 👍 Yes, it's finally time to say it out what was known already in 2022 May (literally written in Western press) - Washington's policy is "Ukraine shouldn't be too successful, Russia must not lose." This Western weakness has probably cost already tens of thousands of Ukrainian lives. :( We can't live in illusions, it is costing many lives. We must say it out and put the heat on policy makers.
I hold these wannabe leaders responsible for those deaths. There are times to be cautious and I would think an invasion is not one of those times.
Do you think DC wants a strong Ukraine to replace the USSR?
Putin killed Prigozhyne. A defeated Russia is the best outcome the world can expect. Any questions?
No question, just a comment. Kind of nice to see bad guys killing each other.
Yeah, I have a question or two: what does this war in a foreign s***hole have to do with me here in the United States?
How is it different that any of the other wars in various s***holes that have been going on somewhere all my life?
@@steveperreira5850They're little more than thugs. That's what thugs do. You challenge one's power and you become a target. I really thought this would be another if Putin's covert poisonings masterfully executed by the FSB. That Putin and the FSB knocked off Prigozhin in such a public and dramatic manner, to me, suggests an intent to send a message to other would be challengers, to his enemies among NATO and EU nations, and finally to the Russian public. He has effectively communicated to the every day Russian that he is still in command, he is still no pushover, and he killed the guy and would do it again. Putin believes that is what Russians want, and he would be correct. He trained them to expect as much. So that everyday Russian is as much responsible for the rape if Ukraine as Mr. Putin.
Defeat for Russia is a good start for Russia. Just a start.
Nations subject to the RuSSian empire should use the situation to regain their sovereignty.
Don't know how they cope with awful Russian chauvinism
As a Russian, I think that you are an open enemy of the Russian people, like you should sit in a camp and work out a crime against the Russian people with hard work
What Russian Empire???imb3c1l35!!
You know, I've thought about this numerous times. If you're a country that wants to break away from Russian influence...now's the time baby! Now, certainly, none of them can expect a similar level of Russian economic support. But if Georgia EVER thinks it's going to take back South Ossetia and Abkhazia, now's the time. If Chechnya EVER thinks it's going to break away, now's the time. If I'm a Belarussian who wants to be rid of Kremlin sock-puppets, now's the time.
Kazakhstan and some of the central asian counties are already moving ... unfortunately, they're moving towards China. A deal they will find out is likely not that much better than the one Russia offers, but at least Russia is unlikely to retaliate.
Including internal nationalities.
Where the U.S. fears some kind of meltdown in Russia is ignoring what is going on. Russia is a failed state. Prigozhin's death, its methodology, is a perfect example of nation state failure. The U.S. is couching its involvement to not upset the apple cart, the apple cart is already overturned and the apples are on the ground rotting.
What You said ..
Precisely.
Exactly. This policy of fear that Russia must not lose because we don't know who comes after Putin... Comon, Russian state TV ALREADY is spreading genocidal talk every evening how Ukrainian state isn't real and Ukrainian ethnicity isn't real and how they will wipe everything "Ukrainian" out. In Russia already all opposition is shot dead in front of the Kremlin, murdered, in exile, or rotting in prison. Putin is already as bad as it can get. Signals like these from the West only make his understanding that the West is weak more strong.
Excellent discussion Jonathan. Mr. Giles is someone the west must listen to. He has important insights that must inform and shape western policy. I always enjoy the discussions you have with Mr. Giles and hope you have him back again and again. Thank you.
Why is THIS message NOT being heard at NATO & UN level?
the message needs to be heard in Berlin and in the Biden administration where the cowards are holding back decisive weapons to be sent to Ukraine out of fear of what will happen in Russia if Ukraine wins the war
Why is it not heard in the White House and the Pentagon?
@@jean-michelvanpruyssen936 In the White House Sullivan, Burns, and Kerry are telling that this is a glorious master strategy. Blinken and Lloyd Austin get it, but Biden is listening to Sullivan & Co.
Nobody in NATO dares to criticize this "Russia must not lose" US policy. This isn't even some secret, it was written already in 2022 May in the Western press. No-one paid attention or wanted to not believe this, because it seems so wrong and immoral.
@@robertatkins9419 So, why the much-needed ATACMS are not being supplied?
Probably is.
Exactly I have been saying that all along. All countries supplying Ukraine with weapons is supplying old stuff and or were going to replace or upgrade them anyway. The US is not in a recession right now because of the war and all that money being spent here in our military complex.
Agreed. Russian victory would be more dangerous than Russian defeat. In any case, huge change can be expected all over the world in matters of war and peace.
Well, Putin is not going to live forever anyway. And it appears he hasn't yet chosen his successor. So if the plan is to let him win, should we also have a plan to help him find one?
Russian victory guarantees the Chinese invasion of Taiwan. A Russian loss would slap the Chinese in the face and an agreement might be made where the Chinese get the territory Russia took in the 19th Century by giving up any rights to Taiwan permanently. This would punish Russia for the invasion and reward China for permanently forgoing any claim on Taiwan.
Wonderful interview ! It should be mandatory for all politicians ! SLAVA UKRAINI - HEROYAM SLAVA ❤❤
👍👍👍
Give Ukraine all they need to end Russian terrorism 🇸🇪❤️🇺🇦
2 of the best analysts on russia today. Thoroughly enjoyed this
These analyst know we have to be ready for nuke retaliationPootin really lost his head now!
One of your best discussion---thank you so much!
Thank god someone else is saying the Prigozhin assassination changes almost nothing and has little deeper meaning. Its only significance is showing how far the Russian state has degenerated.
In any normal functioning state there would be questions asked about why the decision was made to arm, fund, and supply, an army of convicts, and put it under the leadership of a violent convicted criminal with a liking for smashing people's skulls in with sledgehammers. But in Russia, that is not even considered.
Very good that he uses the word Moscow. We need to understand things in the terms of Empire of Moscow.
I really value the point about a comprehensive defeat being the only real answer to militarist imperial tendencies
Great Interview. Slava Ukraini!
Everyone says Prigozhin didn't want to topple Putin on his march to Moscow, but actually he did say "Russia is going to have a new President." People seem to have forgotten that.
One of the best summary reviews on this conflict
There is a strange irrationality amongst western political leaders that somehow chaos in Russia that leads to the dissolution of the largest nation in the world is some kind of disaster, the dissolution of a terrible parasitic nation. What could be bad about that?
Lots of kompromat falling into unknown hands?
Many, many things.
Let's say the dissolution of a terrible parasitic superpower mixed with human greed and Western unfettered capitalism leads to:
An autocrat who uses the infrastructure of democracy and personal security promises to an elected (albeit notoriously alcoholic) leader [to seize] autocratic power and launch a new European war of conquest and then opens Middle Eastern and African fronts as well.
So, as in the example used here, the "foreign policy arm-in-arm with commercial and financial interests" way the West engaged in the dissolution of a parasitic [superpower] didn't precipitate the dissolution of the parasitism.
They seem to be worried about the 7,000 "nukes" but seem to forget that the USSR had 40,000 nuclear devices (yes 40,000) and the world dealt with the collapse of the Soviet Union's nukes without disaster. Does anyone else feel the same way I do about this BS aversion to Russia's collapse ? I've lost a home in Donbas and haven't been home for over a f'in year because of Russia, it has to go, break it up & get rid of it asap!! Also I love listening to Mr Giles. Jonathon needs to ask if Mr Giles can coax his colleague James Sherr to come on the show! 😀
We are seeing the end of the Stalinistic communist experiment that started in 1918 after WW1 which can only work thru violent brutal control with absolute no freedom of thought .
It's about time these pseudo intellectual accepted that this is Russian leaders so no surprises in any of their action .
Change is happening & with the mature democracies showing freedom of thought & action even to protest against their governments but never threatening those freedoms, stability as a norm which from Stalinists see through the open source media like the mobile phone which is bringing the visual war into every one in the world fore ever .
This is forcing change & will eventually end the constricted, restrictive & brutal Communist system..
Not a damn thing. Let's hope that's exactly what happens. It would certainly give pause to China given their subjection of several nations, not the least of which is Tibet.
One of the best interviews yet on Silicon Curtain. Thank you.
Good video and view
Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦
On breaking up Russia, Russia absolutely needs to be broken up and it also absolutely will, the cost and time is the question, but it absolutely will break up.
China looking at East Russia.
Another excellent piece. Never disappointed with the quality of the interview. Furtyermore, it is pivotal to point out government support is not enough . Our support for Frontline soliders is hugely important as well. Thanks NAFO for doing an incredible job for delivery of trucks needed and i m so much honered to be a member of the support netwrok for Ukraine 's victory!
At minimum, Russia should be forced to pay ALL reparations due its Ukrainian victims. In addition, any and all economic activities and/or benefits accruing to the Russian government and its population should be confined to the territories of the Russian Federation, as well as those governments and/or economic interests engaged, whether directly or indirectly, in those activities, until those reparations are FULLY compensated to Utraine's satisfaction.
The quality of Silicon C. discussions is consistently off the charts.
I would LOVE a segment where, like today, Putin's initial speech upon invading Ukraine in 2022 is debunked piece by piece.
Mr. Fink is excellent at finding angles that need to be addressed but have not been, and there are several in it.
As Timothy Snyder has also noted, losing unequivocably was the best thing to happen to countries like Germany, France, Spain, Italy... they became better places with more nice people living better lives.
I was just at the Oranje Hotel in The Hague, where Nazis held Dutch resistance fighters prisoners from 1941-1945 and did horrible things to them.
Today Germans could not be less aggressor-ly, so there is hope.
It would have been beyond folly to think "we can't let Hitler lose, what comes next might be worse!"
Those saying today's equvalent are equally deluded.
It is absolute madness to give Russia and Putin ANY concessions that will give them options to implement a renewed insurgency in the future. Better that the bastards are soundly defeated, and that they are forced to accept a new way of governance, that limits oligarch power and systems of control.
If that means that Russia has to be broken up into 4 semi-autonomous regions overseen by the EU Bloc, UK, USA and Canada, for a period of up to 10 years (or more if necessary), then so be it.
hand over Siberia to China, show no mercy to the Russians, just as they showed no mercy to Germans after WW2.
@@pwp8737 "handing over" things to China is not a good idea🤡
@@pwp8737 no to handing over anything to China -- because we don't need to repeat the errors of the past by making authoritarian regimes stronger.
@@RainerMichelle a powerful China holding Siberia, a dismembered Russia where ethnic minorities become independent and a truncated Russia that serves as a gas station for Europe would be the best for world peace.
@@pwp8737 you must have fallen on your head, a "powerful" China will immediately start a war and take over Taiwan by force, we don't want any dictators getting too "powerful" because they are a threat to world peace
Very sobering - or disillusioning - analysis. Thank you!
A very insightful and sensible discussion! Thank you both!
Giles is one of the best. He also speaks clearly and spesks fine english
Very interesting and informative discussion!
Such a good interview deep awareness… articulate guest
Excellent and essential commentary
Japan's success came after their defeat. In two generations they went from war-criming to Pokemon. An achievement for the ages. Nintendo, Sony.. I wonder what the Russian equivalent will be after they've been put on timeout for a couple decades.
An especially good and important interview. I'm going to forward it to a friend who lives under the assumed fallacies described so well in this video.
Thanks so much for doing it!
👍👍👍
I've already forwarded it to my friend.
The subject of the SMO in Ukraine was brought up in a casual conversation we had a few months ago. He mentioned that Ukraine was not worth supporting because money was going into Zelenski's pocket from all the western support Ukraine has been receiving. When I strongly (and emotionally!) pushed back, he changed the subject. He had been under the assumption that I'd be with him on his comments because he knew I was a strong critic of the USA's involvement in the 2nd Gulf war (invasion of Iraq by Bush Jr.) as well as continued US involvement in Afghanistan - which I was.
He's a very common case and example of people who are only peripherally interested in international affairs - and so are therefore easily susceptible to Russian propaganda. Because the podcast is ~ 40 minutes in length he may not be inclined to listen. But if he does, I've contributed a small but important part in fighting back against the effects of that incredibly poisonous but also incredibly effective Russian propaganda. @@robertatkins9419
I've already forwarded it to my friend.
The subject of the SMO in Ukraine was brought up in a casual conversation we had a few months ago. He mentioned that Ukraine was not worth supporting because money was going into Zelenski's pocket from all the western support Ukraine has been receiving. When I strongly (and emotionally!) pushed back, he changed the subject. He had been under the assumption that I'd be with him on his comments because he knew I was a strong critic of the USA's involvement in the 2nd Gulf war (invasion of Iraq by Bush Jr.) as well as continued US involvement in Afghanistan - which I was.
He's a very common case and example of people who are only peripherally interested in international affairs - and so are therefore easily susceptible to Russian propaganda. Because the podcast is ~ 40 minutes in length he may not be inclined to listen. But if he does, I've contributed a small but important part in fighting back against the effects of that incredibly poisonous but also incredibly effective Russian propaganda.
@@robertatkins9419 "fatal flaw"?? Completely unimpressive. Here's why:
It's not "equally 'poisonous' propaganda". In fact it's the opposite. Why? Because 1) Russia invaded Ukraine, 2) War crimes: rapes, torture that is routine and massive, murder, the targeting of schools, hospitals, apartment buildings, shopping centers etc. on a routine basis, 3) massive, multi-layered and multi-dimensional comprehensive lies.
The fact that you study this intensively for a few hours every day reminds me of another friend of mine who does the same about a variety of topics (though not the SMO). His problem, which I'm guessing you share, is that while he consumes a huge quantity of facts, opinions and theories, he lacks the ability to judge.
This site is great, and this interview was magnificent. I trust you can see the light.
@@simian_essence You're friend is correct, and it sounds like you are easily susceptible to Britishist propaganda, like this garbage from Neo-Milnerite scumbag Keir Giles. You do understand his group is credited with started WW1 and funding the Nazis during the interwar period, correct? Do you not know anything about Lord Alfred Milner or his umbrella organizations like Chatham House that this traitor to humanity, Keir Giles is a member of?
I loved the Chatham House series. Well done! I hope your channel has wider viewership.
I must admit I've never heard of Mr. Giles but I hope it is not the last time he was invited to this channel and the interview. As for the USA - for God's sake, give Ukraine what they need, what they are asking for. (We should have listened to general Patton in 1945. I wish he was alive today.)
This is the second interview- you’ll love the first one we did!
@@SiliconCurtain Gosh, I missed it. Found it and will watch a bit later. Thanks!
Another superb discussion!
It certainly appears that Ukraine's near term strategy is to isolate Crimea. Once done, all they need do is hold out against Russian efforts to lift what ends up being a winter siege, while they wait for the soldiers and civilians therein to sue for terms for want of food and fuel and ammunition. That's when Ukraine will subject Russia to the spectacle of hundreds of thousands of disarmed soldiers and dejected civilians being expatriated to Russian lines in the Donbas and Belgorod.
Thank you Jonathan & Keir. Nothing to add or comment to this excellent interview. Just adding a comment to boost the YT algorithm so that more people would find this channel.
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Inviolably articulate Mr Fink…! Lol
Glory ❤to Ukraine !!!!!! Glory to Ukrainian soldiers ❤. Don’t give up on USA !!! Glory to the Ukrainian people! You are very brave ! Victory will be yours !
glory ❤ to Afghanistan, Glory to Afghanistani soldier ❤. Don;t give up on USA!!! Glory to the Afghani soldier! you are very brave! victory will be yours.
@@InfiniteCodeMageI hope you have a B plan when Bloody.mir Poo.tin falls from power.
Without defeat Russia learns what it does is the right way. Without defeat Russia doesn't have to learn anything new.
Let alone how to live in a modern world. Where hopefully, wars become a thing of the past. So armies are no longer needed.
good interview here
*Drunken Beat Starts*
There once was a plane that got shot to the ground
Didn't take long for the crash site to be found
It was flying mighty high on Flight tracker
before she exploded like a Cracker .
She'd not been two weeks since last in the Sky
The mechanic even looked at it with his eye
The captain called all hands and swore
That the next flight will not be a bore.
🎶🎶Soon may the Wagner come
To bring us Coups and Vodka and Fun
One day, when the tonguing is done
They'lll take their leave and go
To go reclaim their home ....🎶🎶
Before the plane had hit the ground
A Missile made a whirling sound
They all fell out with such a fright
while Putin watched in pure delight .
As news had broken and hit the round
Belarus was panicking on the ground
Lukashenko tried to interfere and wail
But all he could get was Prigozhin's Voicemail.
🎶Soon may the Wagner come
To bring us Coups and Vodka and Fun
One day, when the tonguing is done
They'll take their leave and go
To go reclaim their home .......🎶
Budmo! 🇺🇦
Talent✅
Nice!
This was a good one. Thanks
-- from Finland
Brilliant analysis. 11/10
This was a very good interview! Thank you! Mr. Giles is saying just what I have been saying for a long time.
Another great interview. Very much appreciated!
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Amen. Couldn't agree more with Mr Giles.
As an American I'm embarrassed by the "fear of success" weakness the US has adopted. I can't consider military "leaders" to be an "expert" if the resume is filled with decade long, unsuccessful wars, and a failure to understand what a "strongman" is/means - to know how to act against it rather than enabling. If they pay attention they may learn something from Ukrainians without adequate air force, on how to fight & WIN. Slava Ukraini 💛🇺🇦💙🔱
Brilliant Guest!
Excellent discussion! It should be noted that both the U. S. SecDef and the Chairman of Joint Chiefs have said that their intent is to give Ukraine what they need to win. I suspect that if you were to ask Joe Biden the question he would tell you that he wants Ukraine to win! Slava Ukraine! UA!
Hope you are right but there must be some influential political voices which are not working for a clear win to Ukraine.
Slava Ukraini! 🇺🇦
@@anneli4441 These persons who fear Russia losing have names. Team Obama: Sullivan, Burns, Kerry.
Blinken and Lloyd Austin get it, but Biden listens Sullivan & Co.
Those frauds Biden, the SecDef, and Chairman Milley are doing nothing of the sort. Talk is cheap, but actions say anything but. Look up the Budapest Memorandum. We (the US) basically disarmed Ukraine in 1994 by strongarming them into surrendering what was at the time the world's third-largest nuclear arsenal to Russia in exchange for security "guarantees" from the US, the UK, and Russia (LOL). We made this bed, and have not admitted it, having provided less than 2% of US military arsenals in value terms. No aircraft, no long-range missiles, on and on......
They have NOT said they want Ukraine to win but to survive.
America has a reputation to hanging on until the end before it finally goes for it. I give you WW2 as an example. Better late than never boys! Doing it again now, with equipment this time. And in doing so the Ukraine Airforce has lost it's best Ace pilot!
Great channel 👍❤
Very good and knowledgable interview!
I am astonished at your interview. What a thoughtful fellow. Not sure I totally agree, but fabulous food for thought!
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These are sunk costs. Yes, this point needs to be made over and over again until the average person grasps it.
Great analysis
Keir Giles is extremely knowledgeable.
A fantastic interview as always, Jonathan. Here's a comment for the algorithm.
Chapeau! It‘ time this kind of information is launched much more in public!
absolutely agree to Keir Giles final words about the importance of listening directly to the needs of individual soldiers (the same says Brandon Mitchell tbc.) 🤝
They are not ready to deal with the reality of Russia being replaced be several states. State Departments around the world are not ready for this. I think this is the real fear. Belgorod used to be part of Ukraine....
Belgorod [begin stress] IS [\stress] part of Ukraine 😂
I'm getting a bit tired of Brits complaining that the US is not providing enough to Ukraine. I'd like us to do more but we are giving more than all other countries combined and have other commitments around the world including being the backbone of NATO. The US exceeds the target 3% of GDP spending on defense that all NATO countries are supposed to spend, the UK spends only 2%. Instead of beating up on Uncle Sam, why don't you focus your ire on France, Spain or other Western EU countries who are not pulling their weight. you might also ask why the UK only had a handful of Challenger tanks it could spare to give to Ukraine and why it doesn't have any jets it can afford to give Kiyv.
One of the problems, and I’ll agree with you partly, is that Britain has wound down its army and production of munition to a dangerous level over decades. Britain has given a lot to Ukraine- but does not have a lot to give…
In terms of tanks, again we have just run down the number in working order to a dangerous level. Apparently we have the wrong kind of fighter keys for Ukraine’s need - but, we could have given a symbolic number to Ukraine over a year ago to get that whole class of munition moving… but we didn’t.
hang on. 30:00 he says imperialism is too ingrained in Russia society and culture, that it will be a long slow process (to anti-imperlist democracy or whatever). Germany and Japan did it in less than a generation. Are you telling me those societies did not have "empire" or "submission" deeply in their DNA?
Did you skip the history book parts where both those empires were occupied? Their entire ruling classes uprooted, reformed and reorganized under American supervision (at least in the western part of Germany). Russia is not likely to be invaded and occupied by a liberal power, so there is little chance of the deep seated reforms needed to abolish the empire and create a liberal democratic body politic.
both those countries were beaten to the bone so a lot more weapons are needed to do the same to russia
It’s just a useful way to talk about human skill sets. Take the case there are two types of skill sets. Manager skills and leader skills.. doing things right or doing the right thing- skills…
If you can take that on, then try this: The Russian population have an inordinate weighting in manager-skills… eg keep the life boat afloat, bail water, do tasks and let Putin do all the navigating and steering of the rudder…
Unless Russia has a total defeat and requires “the West” to occupy it to restore civilization ( as in post ww2 where Germany and Japan were totally defeated), then the learning of essential “ leader-skills” will be slow, generational, even…
That was the premise behind the thought process. I just used different wording to frame the situation…
People at Purdue and other Universities think like this because you have to describe what is going on in the USA… We have an over weighting in manager-skills or “ a crisis in leadership”… We are not as bad as Russia, but it’s definitely not 50/50 and maybe it needs to be…. That kind of thought process.🙏
Apparently, you didn't listen very well to what Giles said. He said that the difference between the cases of Germany and Japan after WWII and the case of a defeated Russia is that Germany and Japan were totally occupied and had their entire political, educational, and social infrastructures forcibly rebuilt from the ground up under military occupation. That is patently not what is going to happen in Russia, no matter what the outcome of the war in Ukraine turns out to be.
Furthermore, neither Germany nor Japan ever had an imperial history remotely comparable that of Russia. Russia's imperial expansion began almost 800 years in the past. That's why it has become the largest nation on Earth. Germany never even existed as a coherent identifiable state until the 19th century. Japan's imperial self-aggrandizement only began in the 20th century. If you're talking about historical, cultural "DNA" you are talking about cases that are not remotely comparable.
Something similar can be said about the cultural tradition of the utter submission of civil society in Russia. This tradition of rulership dates back to Russia's subjugation under the Mongol Empire and has been maintained as an extreme form of social abasement throughout traceable history down to the present moment. You have no concept of how deeply the culture of submission to authority is embedded in the Russian social psyche-- in folk mores, in the almost universal participation in corruption as a life pattern, in the very structure of language itself.
IMHO, two major factors applied to Germany & Japan.
(1) Their defeat was not limited to battlefields in other nations, but included total defeat on their homeland. This resulted in the total unconditional surrender of Nazi Germany & imperialistic Japan, which were followed by (a) being occupied by the victors (the Soviet Union & western Allies), (b) seeing their military-industrial base dismantled, and (c) having their equipment/weaponry/munitions destroyed. In contrast, a decisive victory & liberation of all sovereign territory by Ukraine will not mean Russia losing its autonomy or its ability to wage war.
(2) Due to the fanatical nature of the military/political leaders & their most ardent followers, the Nazis & Japanese Imperialists either fought to the death, committed suicide, or received the death penalty as a result of war crimes trials. This meant that, post-war, the leaders, propagandists, and agents of coercion in Nazi Germany & imperialistic Japan no longer had a grip on their populace...and the vacuum left behind by their deaths could be filled with a liberal/democratic/capitalist culture & political/economic structure, i.e. recreated in the image of 'the west'. In contrast, Ukraine's victory & liberation of all sovereign territory would not lead to a forced re-defining/re-engineering of Russian culture/politics.
Great show!
A very useful and informative discussion. Anyone interested in Ukraine / E. Europe. Asian borders/Indian/Chinese foreign policy should listen to this. Very concerning. and rather depressing.
"give the agressor what he wants in order to appease him" - some people argue so, as if this formula hadn´t been tried before. For God´s sake, once and for all: IT NEVER WORKS! If you give the agressor what he wants, he´ll want more, because he thinks you are affraid of him. To those who think abandoning Ukraine should be the way to go: what do you think comes next? A peaceful Putin in a more stable world? I´m glad this issue is being properly addressed here.
Excellent. Very clear.
Great interview. Always happy to hear Kier. I wish I wasn’t so stupid and could remember his talking points and insights!
Well, not only Russia is the country that feels humiliated in the past also China plays the same card. These countries are not talking about the neighbor countries they humiliated in the past but only them feel some how how humiliated. Very narcissistic way to see the history.
China’s a little different. And much more formidable.
The dreams of Russia have to be crushed by a humiliating military defeat. This is the only way they can come to their senses.
Don't fear Russian victory... because that is reality
Amazing interview with a brilliant analyst! The 16th min should be written as basic principle on the wall in every European and American government strategic policy hub. No admittance should be granted there without the knowledge of it by heart.
👍👍👍
Truly outstanding Q & A session. Merci Bocoo
Powerful point "Russia is already there".
Giles is totally right. The Russian mentality, for the most part, is ingrained by Moscovy's centuries of Muslimized Mongol rule - just like the Muslimized Spanish (800 years of Muslim rule) Conquistadores (convert or be subjugated), empire building is part of their psyche. He is also quite right in his assessment of Moscow's behavior and "super-rights" of "influence" despite an overwhelming 92% of Ukrainians who voted for independence from Russia in the 1991 referendum. Most people are so ignorant of history, but Giles is not one of them.
Great discussion.
Do we really care if Russia turns into chaos? Not anymore I think. Perhaps 2 years ago, yes. But now, after so many months of crimes and agression, things have developed differently. A lot of damage has been done that will take decades to repair, and restore confidence.
I wonder if there’s a scenario where we would safely dismantle the nuclear weapons, like Ukraine did in the ‘90s.
Great interview, thanks.
What gets me is most of the equipment we are giving them are in line to be replaced with new models anyway.
Keir Giles’s wonderfull,and excellent sharing on the vile and terroristic war Russian Poootin had started on Ukraine 🇺🇦. Absolutely brilliant and enlightening on the facts of the war . What a terrible injustice Pootin has done to Russia . Someone once wrote~ “Evil will Thrive If Good Men Do Nothing” Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦 !❤God Bless NATO countries ! In God We Thrust 🇺🇸!🙏
Russian defeat is both desirable and inevitable, short of fearing it I'm looking forward to it!
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how could russian defeat EVER be more dangerous than Russian victory?
This video was brilliant. Thanks
This was an excellent and very informative discussion what is necessary to win and by extension end this war as soon as possible.
Apart from the Patriots, most of the US military equipment that has been donated to Ukraine was obsolete for US purposes.
Indeed - and there’s plenty more equipment on the shelf that would otherwise be scrapped, but could be useful to Ukraine.
Well said!
Great discussion Jonathan. Keir made the vital point 25 minutes in that Russia does not need to take any more Ukrainian territory to get a victory, and any kind of victory will leave Russians (and the world) feeling this war was a good idea after all. That would then lead to another bigger war by Russia in Eastern Europe. That is why the West must support Ukraine to clear victory. Some Western governments are making a massive policy error because of fear of the impact of defeat on Russia and misunderstanding of history (thanks, Western education system!). But Russia has to be defeated at some point, or it will not stop. Sanctions and economic steps will not stop it. The sooner it is stopped, the better, to minimise the death and suffering and damage for everyone (including Russia) from aggressive war by Russia. Peace imposed on Ukraine would be a ceasefire I agree with Keir that (if we are middle aged adults) we are not going to see decisive positive cultural change in Russia in our lifetimes. Russia has a deep culture of resentful false victimhood. Interesting to see a respected expert explicitly comparing Putin's Russia with Nazi Germany. The cycle of equipping Ukraine is far too slow. In the end, all of us in the West will suffer because of these delays.
Like and agree with your point of 'resentful false victimhood', which has been so obvious but rarely alluded to for decades.
If you fight for justice you dont need to worry about the future.
If you dont dare fight for justice you will loose both justice and your self.
Slava Ukraine.