All Hims 10x bulls are missing two points; 1. Competition from a big player. The better Hims does, the more likely big players will intervene. I am almost sure Amazon and other big pockets will get involved very fast in the market sooner than later. It is very naive to think Hims will ride this market all alone. 2. Very highly regulated theme. I think Hims will do fine, but will disappoint the unrealistic investor that doesn't understand how business markets work.
Great analysis, appreciate your efforts.Thank you! There is just one consideration with HIMS, the day AMZN will announce a similar service HIMS will get crushed. Therefore for me it is just a swing trade stock for the last 2 years.
Thank you for your comment Canzelot. I will Amazon could play a large part in this market. Most of the time when investing in these smaller businesses (comparatively) which are growing so fast, at least one of the magnificent is going to licking their lips at your business model. I think there is just SO far to go for the healthcare industry to catch up with the rest of the economy in terms of the modern way of doing things, Hims is likely to grab a large share of this market. Hims has build a great brand of a personalised service, has fantastic marketing unique to this industry. I will make a video on this in the future!
@@HInvests Yes. I bought during the SPAC I didn’t sell when it went up. Loaded up in 5-6’s . CA 8.65 as today. PLTR I had from SPV bought all down in the 5’s 125,000 shares CA 11.85 SOFI 154,000 shares CA 7.14 NIO SMCI HOOD RKLB SERV JMIA…TARS
That's a really interesting portfolio you've got there! Some of these are very early stage. I am a large investor in SOFI too. I recently sold my PLTR as the valuation is getting nutty for me. Fantastic long term hold, just no room for ever at these multiples. A few you highlighted have been on my watchlist in the past, I hadn't heard of JMIA or TARS before you mentioned them. All the best with your investing!
I am a Hims shareholder one thing you don’t realize is people in America who have insurance especially through government jobs love their insurance and will never use Hims. I pay five dollars for drugs under my plan. Also there’s only 350 million Americans. Many of them are children to get 60 million you would have to get probably half of the insurance eligible people as seniors are covered under government plans.
Hi Lawrence, The problem is, insurance plans don't cover a lot of the treatments that Hims offer since it's not deemed "essential", and when they do they're selling ex-patented versions of drugs long after they've gone generic. These drugs are very much in demand though, and it's so much more convenient, seamless and cheaper to go through HIMS to get them. This 30x is no guarantee it's an optimistic target: On the one had it sounds like a lot for HIMS to 30x, it’s 17% of the U.S population. However, this would be with no increase in ARPU, AND no valuation uplift. Just from the metrics today, it can be argued that HIMS should be trading at 3x the mkt cap, as I demonstrated in the valuation section. If the valuation 3x, there would only need to be 20 million subs, with no increase in APRU for a 30x. As HIMS consistently increase their offering, this further expands their TAM, which also drives ARPU up as a higher proportion of existing users find use from more than one HIMS product. If you think 30x is too ambitious, even if just a 5x in customers (10 million) and a double in valuation multiples will yield a 10x. When I say 30x, there are no guarantees, and I am looking at 10+ years down the road. Good luck with your investing 💪
Hi Keven, Just taking a quick look- their revenue is forecasted to decline yoy for the 3rd year in a row. It could be a good value play, but I typically like to see revenue growing or at least maintained. Nice yield, but you can get close to that out of T-bills right now.
I haven't looked into this, but personally I never take insider selling to seriously unless it's clear each insider is trying to completely get out. Most compensation of top executives is payed through stock options and RSU so to fun lifestyles it's almost a necessity to sell stock. Not to mention often these options when exercised come with huge tax burdens so you need to sell shares to cover the liability. I'd ask personally if he sold $6milliom worth how much does he have total if it's over $150million or so I wouldn't even bat an eye he's likely just cashing shares for a new house yatch or other luxury item.
The whole concept breaks down once you go to the real reason people have health insurance - serious conditions. This severely limits H&H's market share. It may work on this small scale but I cannot see how it scales to a large cap. Also, although not directly the same, do look at Babylon in the UK. Similar-ish concepts and it failed
I admire your vision, but 60 million customers seems like a lot. I feel like this drug issue is a particularly American thing. I’m in Canada and my (company) medical covers the cost of all my drug costs. I agree there should be a huge market for convenient and cheap drugs, I just not so sure how much of a share of the market they’ll get.
Hi Amuro, Thanks for your comment 💪. On the one had it sounds like a lot for HIMS to 30x, it’s 17% of the U.S population. However, this would be with no increase in ARPU, AND no valuation uplift. Just from the metrics today, it can be argued that HIMS should be trading at 3x the mkt cap, as I demonstrated in the valuation section. If the valuation 3x, there would only need to be 20 million subs, with no increase in APRU for a 30x. As HIMS consistently increase their offering, this further expands their TAM, which also drives ARPU up as a higher proportion of existing users find use from more than one HIMS product. If you think 30x is too ambitious, even if just a 5x in customers (10 million) and a double in valuation multiples will yield a 10x. When I say 30x, there are no guarantees, and I am looking at 10+ years down the road. Good luck with your investing 💪
The rate of share issuance was never excessive given the company's growth rates and this rate has consistently slowed down since IPO. outstanding are at 217M as of Q2 2024, up from 211M in Q2 2023. That's only a 2.7% increase on 52% yoy revenue growth. 6M shares @ $15/share (rough average over the last year) = $90M of dilution. HIMS announced a $100M buyback program, hence little to no share dilution.
All Hims 10x bulls are missing two points; 1. Competition from a big player. The better Hims does, the more likely big players will intervene. I am almost sure Amazon and other big pockets will get involved very fast in the market sooner than later. It is very naive to think Hims will ride this market all alone. 2. Very highly regulated theme. I think Hims will do fine, but will disappoint the unrealistic investor that doesn't understand how business markets work.
Great analysis, appreciate your efforts.Thank you! There is just one consideration with HIMS, the day AMZN will announce a similar service HIMS will get crushed. Therefore for me it is just a swing trade stock for the last 2 years.
Amzn will not.go.in the field..market is usa only.amzn want a service that can be used for the whole world.
Thank you for your comment Canzelot. I will Amazon could play a large part in this market. Most of the time when investing in these smaller businesses (comparatively) which are growing so fast, at least one of the magnificent is going to licking their lips at your business model. I think there is just SO far to go for the healthcare industry to catch up with the rest of the economy in terms of the modern way of doing things, Hims is likely to grab a large share of this market. Hims has build a great brand of a personalised service, has fantastic marketing unique to this industry. I will make a video on this in the future!
WOW!!..as someone who big position in HIMS 134,500 shares. This was the best explanation and presentation on HIMS.
Thank you very much! That's a very large position, is it one of your largest holdings?
@@HInvests Yes. I bought during the SPAC I didn’t sell when it went up. Loaded up in 5-6’s . CA 8.65 as today. PLTR I had from SPV bought all down in the 5’s 125,000 shares CA 11.85 SOFI 154,000 shares CA 7.14 NIO SMCI
HOOD RKLB SERV JMIA…TARS
That's a really interesting portfolio you've got there! Some of these are very early stage. I am a large investor in SOFI too. I recently sold my PLTR as the valuation is getting nutty for me. Fantastic long term hold, just no room for ever at these multiples. A few you highlighted have been on my watchlist in the past, I hadn't heard of JMIA or TARS before you mentioned them. All the best with your investing!
@@HInvests I going to sell 75% of PLTR
@@AFRICA4AFRICANS 54x Gross Profit and 112x fwd FCF with close to optimised margins is very rich for me.
I am a Hims shareholder one thing you don’t realize is people in America who have insurance especially through government jobs love their insurance and will never use Hims. I pay five dollars for drugs under my plan. Also there’s only 350 million Americans. Many of them are children to get 60 million you would have to get probably half of the insurance eligible people as seniors are covered under government plans.
Hi Lawrence,
The problem is, insurance plans don't cover a lot of the treatments that Hims offer since it's not deemed "essential", and when they do they're selling ex-patented versions of drugs long after they've gone generic. These drugs are very much in demand though, and it's so much more convenient, seamless and cheaper to go through HIMS to get them.
This 30x is no guarantee it's an optimistic target:
On the one had it sounds like a lot for HIMS to 30x, it’s 17% of the U.S population. However, this would be with no increase in ARPU, AND no valuation uplift. Just from the metrics today, it can be argued that HIMS should be trading at 3x the mkt cap, as I demonstrated in the valuation section. If the valuation 3x, there would only need to be 20 million subs, with no increase in APRU for a 30x. As HIMS consistently increase their offering, this further expands their TAM, which also drives ARPU up as a higher proportion of existing users find use from more than one HIMS product.
If you think 30x is too ambitious, even if just a 5x in customers (10 million) and a double in valuation multiples will yield a 10x. When I say 30x, there are no guarantees, and I am looking at 10+ years down the road. Good luck with your investing 💪
Fellow Hims investor, great video
Thank you very much! All the best with your investing.
Very informative content! The company is definitely going to see a boost.
Thanks Hammad, amazing work on the editing!
can u look into cri stock
carters good dividend and good valuation
Hi Keven,
Just taking a quick look- their revenue is forecasted to decline yoy for the 3rd year in a row. It could be a good value play, but I typically like to see revenue growing or at least maintained. Nice yield, but you can get close to that out of T-bills right now.
what do you think of insiders selling $102 Million in shares in the last 12 months even Andrew Dudun CEO sold $ 6 million last week
I haven't looked into this, but personally I never take insider selling to seriously unless it's clear each insider is trying to completely get out. Most compensation of top executives is payed through stock options and RSU so to fun lifestyles it's almost a necessity to sell stock. Not to mention often these options when exercised come with huge tax burdens so you need to sell shares to cover the liability.
I'd ask personally if he sold $6milliom worth how much does he have total if it's over $150million or so I wouldn't even bat an eye he's likely just cashing shares for a new house yatch or other luxury item.
The whole concept breaks down once you go to the real reason people have health insurance - serious conditions. This severely limits H&H's market share. It may work on this small scale but I cannot see how it scales to a large cap.
Also, although not directly the same, do look at Babylon in the UK. Similar-ish concepts and it failed
The insurance industry generally doesn't cater well to non-life-threatening conditions which is the area that HIMS is disrupting.
great video! mind sharing your cost average as well?
Thank you! Sure, I started buying at $8/share, and bought a lot more between $13-$15 in August. My average cost basis is $11.10.
Very informative, thx 👍
You're very welcome!
25000 shares, keep adding
Good luck with your position. Are you a fan of Michael Burry?
I admire your vision, but 60 million customers seems like a lot. I feel like this drug issue is a particularly American thing. I’m in Canada and my (company) medical covers the cost of all my drug costs. I agree there should be a huge market for convenient and cheap drugs, I just not so sure how much of a share of the market they’ll get.
Hi Amuro,
Thanks for your comment 💪. On the one had it sounds like a lot for HIMS to 30x, it’s 17% of the U.S population. However, this would be with no increase in ARPU, AND no valuation uplift. Just from the metrics today, it can be argued that HIMS should be trading at 3x the mkt cap, as I demonstrated in the valuation section. If the valuation 3x, there would only need to be 20 million subs, with no increase in APRU for a 30x. As HIMS consistently increase their offering, this further expands their TAM, which also drives ARPU up as a higher proportion of existing users find use from more than one HIMS product.
If you think 30x is too ambitious, even if just a 5x in customers (10 million) and a double in valuation multiples will yield a 10x. When I say 30x, there are no guarantees, and I am looking at 10+ years down the road. Good luck with your investing 💪
''their share deloution is not part. high'' you shure about that? I don't think so.
The rate of share issuance was never excessive given the company's growth rates and this rate has consistently slowed down since IPO. outstanding are at 217M as of Q2 2024, up from 211M in Q2 2023. That's only a 2.7% increase on 52% yoy revenue growth. 6M shares @ $15/share (rough average over the last year) = $90M of dilution. HIMS announced a $100M buyback program, hence little to no share dilution.