I Took the Black Pill of Sports Betting
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- Опубликовано: 4 июл 2024
- In this video I describe what the blue pill, red pill and black pills are of sports betting and what caused me to transition from the red pill to the black pill.
0:00 Intro
0:41 Blue Pill
3:19 Red Pill
5:34 Black Pill
9:44 The Black Pill Way to Bet on Sports in 2022 
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hey, I get it and understand what you're feeling. I've been through those cycles many times myself. Can I give you a purely selfish piece of advice for you and your channel as a whole? Why not open up one of your old models, say the 2017 College Football one, and make some videos showing the guts of it? I know you probably put in hundreds of hours into it, and now if you're not going to be betting with it, all that it lost. Plus it could be really unique on youtube and drive traffic, I can't really find videos of people showing the internals of a model that at a time had been a proven winner. Just my two cents, keep up the great work and I'll still be here watching either way!
Wait this channel is insanely chill\
william, i assume you've played Streak for the Cash before? been doing it for 11 years. never got past 20 but it's enjoyable
Some bettors seem to have more success with player props. Have you tried a model targeting those markets? I'm still betting team sides and totals and haven't yet ventured into player props. All I know is those markets are thinner and lines move easier.
Не бросай это дело, ты очень круто!! ты очень многому учишь обычных людей, которые плохо разбираются в статистике.
here's the brutal truth: winners win and losers lose. but you have a degree of choice there. right now you're like my dad who used to bet seriously on horses. he'd buy all the formbooks but didn't survey his competitors to know that form was already priced in. sectional timing wasn't priced in back then and plenty got rich from it, yet my dad the nuclear physicist missed it. because he wasn't really looking. he had a conspiracy mindset and deep down wanted to prove to himself that the world was rigged against him
watch some peter webb videos, betfair trader, looks like a nondescript 50 year old accountant. guy is a complete killer. because he has an open, curious mindset and a relentless, uncomplicated optimism. put him in wall street and he'd make billions. i have the curiosity - i can find edges whenever i want - but i often get depressed so i'm unproductive. i ameliorate that as best i can with exercise and meditation, but what's going to take me from subsistence-level gambling to nice restaurants is teaming up with people who are flawed in various ways but whose skills complement mine
i don't know how much you can change your mindset. i know you can change your crew
Lol man, that is really funny. Peter Webb is a total scam. What he teaches is 100% pure basics. He has no edge at all. It is like I’m pretending to be a stock market expert and tell you what is the difference between stock and bond and tell you „see, now I have the edge”. Lol you don’t get the edge with so basic knowledge. You are clearly new to this, so you think he is showing some advanced stuff, but you’re wrong. Those are absolute basics and will never give anyone edge, because almost everybody already know those things.
It takes hard work. Clearly he is wrong as there are professional sports bettors who make a lot of money. You are exactly right about certain things being factored in already. This is so important to understand. There is no edge in what everybody knows. These television so called experts are laughable because they mostly just tell you who “sucks” and really take useless information to an absurd level…
So if you had someone that made the work easier by knowing how to write code to automate your stats knowledge and was willing to do the work if you help with the algorithms would you turn back red? I don't sports bet really, but enjoy the mega millions type contests... you game? All of what you are doing in your spreadsheet I have mostly automated (for NFL) like the pulling of stats. I just don't have the level of stats knowledge that I want. If so, hit me up.
Sports betting is definitely a negative expected value for most (including myself), so why do *you* bother betting (on future college FB games)? Do you earmark the funds you use on sports betting as "entertainment?"
Personally, I do not bet on sports at all, but I review the lines before events to get a sense of what the betting markets' expectations are.
I came across your channel when I was trying to educate myself about sports betting in general. I am very grateful for your content, especially your playlists on touts and statistical approaches to betting.
I know you had reservations about "arbitrage" betting in the past, have you reconsidered?
Good video
why not use a bot for the statistics and betting in 2022 ?
my most profitable time this year in NBA betting was just bet on the team that had something to play for and agaisnt the teams that were tanking the books could not make a line big enough for a team that was tanking.
Portland Trail Blazers lol
Oh I missed this one
You must believe in efficient market hypothesis
There are people who have made millions on sports betting. It is not easy to hit over 53% but if you do you will profit from individual wagers vs the spread. You would have to somehow prove your theory that it cannot be done… And that cannot be done. Any model that cuts into the house take is proof that it can be done. You just need enough of these advantages.
Thank you for your previous videos on building a model. I actually followed along your video and build a model. However... after a full week of throwing out positive EV bets, I agree with your Black Pill for sports betting. The time commitment is steep. And, if you win too much from the sportsbook, they can back you off (limit your betting). I'm actually one of the few that make money from casinos. I've been card counting at a professional level for the last 2 years. There are better ways to spend your time to make even more money. Making money is really hard work. Be very suspect of easy money.
Yikes! What a doomer rant! How are odds getting sharper? Intuitively, one would think legalization would introduce fresh blood ie square bettors into the population. I've been betting baseball since opening day, and the moneyline odds for sides are indeed remarkably sharp.
I’ve been tracking my sports bets for 3 months, been positive every month so far, but I have a lot of discipline and only bet on certain events, oh and luck. 😂
Also I do bet with my “gut” and if I don’t have a feel for a game I simply just don’t bet it, I tried betting NFL I wasn’t winning so I stopped, I started betting nba exclusively and am winning at 58% right now. I feel sports where games are played daily like the nba and mlb are better to bet because the circumstances are changing daily, things like players sitting out, back to back games. As where the nfl the teams play 1 game a week and the line makers have all week to get it precise.
How about try a new sport?
Which pill are you?
Red
Purple. A mix of All 3.
@@kevinfinnerty8414 Clever boy
@@kevinfinnerty8414 you have Tony Soprano's briefcase and wallet
Dead Red.
I take tums. I can't trust my gut. 🤢🤮
MLB hardest sport by far
It's deeper than just a black pill you need to ultra red pill brother
No !!!!!!!!!! The black pill will always come to college