How Science is Taking the Luck out of Gambling - with Adam Kucharski
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- Опубликовано: 21 сен 2024
- From the statisticians forecasting sports scores to the intelligent bots beating human poker players, Adam Kucharski traces the scientific origins of the world's best gambling strategies.
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Spanning mathematics, psychology, economics and physics, Adam Kucharski reveals the long and tangled history between betting and science, and explains how gambling shaped everything from probability to game theory, and chaos theory to artificial intelligence.
Adam Kucharski is a Lecturer at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine where his research focusses on the dynamics of infectious diseases, particularly emerging infections. Prior to this, he got a degree in mathematics from the University of Warwick, received a PhD in applied mathematics from the University of Cambridge and had a post-doc position at Imperial College London.
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I feel so lucky to be born in a time when anybody at all can just press a few buttons and find themselves being mentally enriched by an expert lecturing in any field of theory or knowledge. Quantum physics or gaming theory. Become as knowledgeable as you care to be on any subject at all. Truly remarkable.
Exceedingly remarkable indeed
But on the BAD side, there are alot of people and governments that are hell bent to distort knowledge , to distort information , to gain & stay on power
I swear these days we can't go 5 replies to a comment on RUclips without somebody finding something negative to say about something positive.
Oh really? Care to answer some simple
questions on quantum mechanics or game theory? Just because you watch RUclips videos does not make you an expert, or even particularly knowledgeable.
This comment and all the replies to it, are Dunning Kruger at its finest.
@@markchoi5777 the key words are "mentally enriched" and "care to be". If you want to be expert, in theory, you can be one by watching a lot of videos and read a tons of books. Most experts do the same thing but they either have an accredition or job in the field. Or you can just a little more knowledgable of a topic you previously know or care about with the wonder of the present.
I remember as a kid, RC Cola had some promotion where the liner inside the cap had the chance to win from a 1 free bottle up to a case of cola. One of my friends figured out that the steel caps of winning bottles were printed in slightly lighter colours than the rest. We had so much RC cola during that promotion! The best part was when we went to collect the free cola we would always choose another winner so never had to buy another bottle, lol. Happy memories as a kid.
Sounds like something I did. I was playing a tennis game on Xbox 360 with a friend, and figured out how to tell if my friend was going left or right, or aiming left or right, before the shot had fired. A huge advantage. It was from the sound of the thumb stick hitting the left or right side of the plastic. It was just sliiiiiiightly different.
MountainProspector, did you grow up in Texas? My brother dated one of the daughters to the RC Cola family, Ann Comegys. Back in the early 80s which is the timeframe I’m referring to I recall their family owning huge amounts of land north of Dallas. Nowadays, I live north of Dallas in McKinney and there is a Comegys creek and a few roads or streets named in reference to that family. Like you, I used to drink a lotta RC Cola for free. We just got it free for different reasons. 😉
we did something similar when i was young ... the shop owner kicked us out because he thought we were scamming/stealing him ...
Hated RC cola, just had a weird taste. Growing up, My best friends mother bought it by the pallet, literally. I'd rather drink water.
My dad used a flashlight on a scratch off baseball card game to know how to make matches
I have an uncle who is/was a science prodigy. His intellect was off the scale. He has a PhD in Physics and a masters in mathematics. He developed a software which grocery stores scanned all their shelves with it and it revealed that which position on the shelf a product sold more from. Brand didn't matter - where the product was placed on display determined the sales. Product producers were lining up with offers of more and more money to buy their product's position on display. His company was eventually purchased by a company who then owned the product.
He used his brainpower to beat the roulette tables in Atlantic City. He watched the spinners. Based on height, weight,handedness, etc he worked out a winning position where he knew within 95% certainty which 4-5 numbers would be the winning numbers. When new spinners were brought in, he would step back and study their spins until he figured out the new patterns. He won $60K with this before he was asked to leave. They never figured out how he had done it but I suspect the practice continues today.
Good story.
netflix worth film
I learned a lot of Excel by doing gambling calculations. I never won a dime, but my ample spreadsheet skills got me a very good job.
@Munrais That is impressive. I wonder if you wouldn't mind elaborating on your job, and on one or two specific skills in Excel that have proven valuable to your employer, in case there is someone out there looking to emulate your approach.
me too
@@GeldorfMcleod Hence you should try it out in a brick casino.
And get banned there.
@@NewPhone-vj4sc If you're good at something, never do it for free.
@@GeldorfMcleod Log the numbers from one account and play on a different account. Use pythons image recognition libraries (Open CV) to automate the logging process. And the library (numpy) to make statistical calculations. If you can log the numbers for a long period of time, then you will be able to see patterns if there is any . Good luck
"
Adam Kucharski is a Lecturer at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine where his research focusses on the dynamics of infectious diseases, particularly emerging infections."
An incredibly relevant focus to have this year.
I'm guessing like me you would welcome a similar talk on his main area of expertise. Especially now that we are over a year into the pandemic and have a lot of data to examine.
A lecture on the Covid pandemic would be great (albeit quickly out of date if he focused on the "latest news"), but in case you're unaware, Adam has an excellent twitter account full of explanations about Covid data.
Omg what are you his PR manager ?
And it's not very relevant at all tbh.. This is why he is talking about gambling not infectious disease.
This was a delight. He trips from math to history, to physics like a Mozart sonata.
Excellent talk! An example of someone who knows a topic so well his explanation is incredibly easy to understand. A rare talent!
okay been given out this formula to low-income people unfortunately higher income people gotten it because Kevin in nc "states North Carolina comp office" was given this information ( just how to win ) to give it to the lottery ..been told by an insider he never provided the info to lottery officials he uses it for himself ( he may have quit because he has the formula) .. today the pic 4 front end should be 88 or 84...when I went to play today it say "play out exceeds payout!!!!! that how many people are playing the formula and know it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! so yeah I hope low-income people are winning, that was my objective no matter what color...just be low income. The only way this number will not play is if the lottery people have gotten smart, to date so far they have no, so it should play today..
True!
I played 50cent on 4 numbers on the Irish Lottery, in the bookies a couple of weeks ago. It was my first time ever to do so, and i watched the draw live on tv that night and all 4 of my numbers came out, i won €1900.50. I couldn't actually believe it, i went back down the very next day and collected it, & i walked straight out of the shop clearly extremely happy.
I know of plenty of people who would have collected that money & stayed in the shop and blew the lot.
That to me is madness.
ج
Cool story, bro. lol
that person to waste it all is me won 1800 usd the other day lost it all 😎
22:15 Kelly formula
40:02 Build the childs' mind and regret's minimization of vs expectation maximization
Tnx
Can u elaborate please I don’t understand
I don't know why this was recommended to me but I watched it all. Thanks youtube.
Saw this randomly in my feed (chuckle) and thought it looked interesting but had no intention of sitting here for an hour. I ended up being pasted to my screen for the entire thing completely entertained and happy for the education.
me too.... plus.... repeat, repeat......
wait this took an hour ???
Great point in gambling where your betting amount in proportion to your bank is extremely important and determines if you win or lose long term. You can have the perfect betting system but if your betting amount if over the optimum limit then you will lose not only the bets but all your bank eventually which is why the casinos always want you to bet beyond what is reasonable all the time.
Wrong.
Great talk! A good balance of simplicity and mathematics with some great examples; Presented brilliantly!
@Garbaz it's Happy! ;) I agree, I'm glad to see this bloke talking about all kinds of stuff I've been spouting for decades. I'm trying to do some computer analysis of blackjack in C++ but I'm a very amateur programmer... having difficulties.
@bcmasur do you watch fairytail too?
Loser
Garbaz I
Presently brillianted!
Speaking of the luck and skill boxes, we teach young aviators that they begin with a full bag of luck and an empty bag of skill and their goal is to fill the skill bag before their luck bag runs out.
On a macro level were doing that on this rock
that's a fun way to cover beginner's luck
Oh wow... Realities "knocked" me hard by this... Thanks for this advise, truly... ❤️
A most thought-provoking talk! Regarding the situation in which Deep Blue foxed Kasparov with a seemingly brilliant, but in reality completely random, move, it struck me that the same strategy probably wouldn't work the other way around. Had Kasparov done the same thing, Deep Blue would simply have calmly and unemotially taken the best possible advantage of it, as it would of any other move. Our inability to use bluff/gamesmanship against machines therefore surely means that chess, poker, or almost any game played against a computer is forever going to be missing a major dimension of enjoyment. This might almost amount to an argument for turning our attention, to some extent, away from the further development of AI to that of AS (articificial stupidity)! :-)
There was a lot more schenanigans going on than just a single weird move. I think in reality the match was really just a PR exercise for IBM, they organised it, they promoted it, they agreed a format, they broke all the rules, then they declared themsleves the winner and their PR team let the world know. If this had in any way been a sanctioned formal match I think the deep blue team would have been disqualified for failing to meet many agreed upon anti-cheating safeguards, but it wasn't any they probably paid Kasparov extra to not make a fuss. He seemed pretty unhappy about it, but likely earned enough to live with the humiliation of being labelled the first world champion to lose to a computer.
Excellent video! You should do a video on Arbitrages, since they are basically only winning strategy, like those Betnetto surebets.
Theres plenty more ways of guaranteing wins
@@aaronwolstenholme8640 yep. one way that can work 87% is a rabbit foot. Be sure it's the front right foot which is the real lucky foot.
JUST KIDDING forgot to type LOL, sorry.
@@christopherdesimone206 so your saying 100% percent that this is the only way?
Don't ever play in a blackjack table that has a CSM (card shuffler machine). Walk out or just hand them your money and save yourself time.
I instantly started my poker software and started to bluff bad hands, no matter what.
Worked WAY better than I expected xD
So I did NOT play lose or tight. I ignored the middle cards and just played good or bad cards.
Of course with some adjustments... (so I just raised preflop with bad cards, when noone did before, for example)
Doubled my buy in in just 10 minutes. When I regognized, people saw what I was doing, I left. Made some money. Going to try to replecate that tomorrow
he won with some bullshit system which is basically bluffing, said he would try it again tomorrow. now it's a month further.......
I know. It's surprising how people always think they've found some secret method to success. As far as poker goes, we've known how to play optimally for years with range building. You calculate your own odds based on the possible cards you think your opponent could have based on how they play. Tight players will bluff less and usually have better cards when they bet, loose players will bluff more and bet with weaker hands, if you have KhAh they are less likely to have hearts and broadway combos, etc. There is some basic strategy for playing the early rounds of a large tournament but beyond that...
I will say that bluffing a lot is going to be good against weaker and tight players, and since the op was playing online he likely just ran into a table with a bunch of noobs/weak players.
@@yawgmoth5662 it was meant like a joke...^^ of course it just works sometimes
Just because it worked once. Doesn't mean it will work longterm
Good point. Play a certain way that throws everyone off until they catch on then leave
This is one of the better presentations of this subject in relation to the events of chance/randomization and our ability to predict the preferred outcome. Well done sir.
An excellent lecture and the fact that it is freely available is a reminder that we all have the opportunity to improve ourselves and learn something new and it doesn't have to cost a thing (internet access permitting of course).
I'll say the title of this video has 5 to 2 odds of drawing in most gamblers to watch it !!! LOL
Wanna bet on that? ;)
Just a few people will get this... lol
When I was 8 years old, my dad worked at a speedway gas station in Ohio, USA. Sitting behind the counter and bored, I started studying the back of scratch off tickets, and I found the pattern for winners. Dad wouldn’t let me go through the reels and pick out the winners for purchase. He also would pass on purchasing known winners when I spotted them as the next ticket. One time a guy came in and said something like “hey kid, which one is a winner.” I told him something like, the first two on this row are losers, but the third one is a winner. He told my dad, 3 of those tickets. He scratched them right there and won $25 on the third ticket. For a $3 investment, that was a pretty nice win, and could have been a million dollars to me. I think he handed me $10 from his win, which my dad refused. From then on out, I wasn’t allowed to be behind the counter let alone look at lottery tickets. I found out many years later when I was an adult what my dad’s job was in the military, and how much highly classified formation he handled on a daily basis. Essentially, he told me he never let me exploit the lottery because he feared that sort of criminal collaboration would show up in his lie detector tests and he was morally against cheating as well as afraid of the consequences the military would have on him.
This video was better than I expected.
How good did you expect it to be?
@@jayaybe1 Less so than it was.
Your expectations are my priority
Yeah , if you ignore that thick accent.
"Adam Kucharski is a Lecturer at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine where his research focusses on the dynamics of infectious diseases, particularly emerging infections."
An incredibly relevant focus to have this year.
There was a book in the 1980s called "Eudaemonic Pie," about building a computer to beat roulette. I had a copy, but I lost it because I lent it to a friend who died in poverty due to a gambling addiction....
Hmm.
As one of your cousins from "across the pond" I really am impressed with the high quality of your public discourse, I really wish there was a comparable public institution to The Royal Institution over here. Really quality stuff and excellent presenters. Thanks so much for posting!
Thank you for your kinds words. We're very passionate about encouraging everyone to think more deeply about science and its place in our lives and we try to do this in part by widening access to science discourse. This is why we film and upload most of our public talks, why we create shorter videos and run a monthly podcast. Not everyone can come to our building in London, so we make sure you get almost the full experience online.
Google talks are sometimes awesome, I highly recommend ruclips.net/video/vsMydMDi3rI/видео.html "Frank Abagnale: "Catch Me If You Can"
@@Minuz1 Thanks! I'll check them out.
When he said his jobs description, he had my full attention.
So...you're telling me there's a chance...YEAH!
I got kicked off a table in Vegas because I was changing my bet. They took me in the back and explained to me that this was entertainment. They asked if had been entertained.
So... were you?
I like the concept of regret minimization for investing, also looking backward to improve trading or investing skills.
Adam you're very well spoken and easy to follow. It's obvious that you've put an enormous of time and thought into this presentation, however Los Alamos developed the Atom bombs. One with a plutonium core and the other a uranium core. The Hydrogen Bomb would follow but that would be post WW2. You're cavalier reference to this world changing, war altering, civilian life ending accomplishment speaks to your British "Is there a rest of the world" mentality. Also, run as many simulations as you want but the true determining factor in poker is the Human factor. I don't play poker against a computer I play against people. So while I am certain that there is a computer player that can beat me, it has nothing to lose. Were you to play poker you'd realize that, when playing Heads Up, sometimes the best move is to fold and wait. If you raise every time you have a low card you will lose not win. My point being the your maths expire. Try living, that's learning enough.
Great vid. Nice to see a lecturer who knows his subject and rarely if ever has to look at his notes.
Luck? Gambling? Those are two words that don't go together. Odds are set by the house.
I have often joked that the only way I am going to bet in a casino is if I am the house.
absolutely incredible talk, so fluid and so many great examples...makes me wanna go and research them all! ty
Not fluid at all, give this man some water. His mouth and tongue sounded so dry and it bothered me the whole time.
I really don't know why some people have disliked this video, the video is very great. Good work.
I disliked it because it had an ad in the middle. I dislike all videos that interrupt for ads in the middle and stop watching.
Actually, during that game of chess, Garry Kasparov even went on ACCUSING the IBM team that the move was played are manipulated by a human player. As it was so unclear (and he still admits to not know the answer) if this was a winning move for the computer or a random guess. Especially since he was aware of the diminished value of luck and probability in that computer. Nowadays, computers do that all the time, and they even create and exploit strategies (sometimes purely based on probabilty calculation and risk management) that we fail to understand them. We then see the larger picture when we loose the game
Lose
My take away is that when you beat the system, they call you up for a "chat"
yes!
only if you get too greedy....
This guy didn't say jack.
43:15 "Well done. I wont fall for that again!!!!!"
Betting 1/4 of your money on an event that has a 50% chances of happening with the odds of 2.00 will not make you win money overtime as is graph shows. Your graph will spike overtime but the outcome will ultimately be around your initial money.
You are not betting 1/4 of your starting money. You are betting with 1/4 of your remaining money.
The problem is that LUCK never existed.
Luck is our simple explanation for a situation with too many variables to number & account for to come to a satisfying conclusion so we simplify it by saying phrases like "how lucky/how unlucky" everything in our universe is guided by measurable & precise phenomena that is often not measurable by our primitive tools or understood by our primitive minds. If you are unable to see. Even a simple coin toss has so many complex physics calculations based on every variable present. Coin weight, flip strength, angle held, landing surface, contact surface, grime on the coin affecting weight slightly, rotation & gravity of the planet. Etc etc etc.
I love the winning lottery anecdote. I had a similar situation with card counting at the casino in the 90's. i had a way of beating the system - without being detected (not true of traditional card counting systems). Everyone was skeptical (and remain so to this day) because, as they told me, if I could, I would be down at the casino making money, not talking about it. But I had already calculated that skinning the casino would be harder work than my paid job, less interesting, and inherently risky - as a winning strategy doesn't always amount to wining. I would have been gambling dangerously high ante levels to convert my 0.4% advantage per bet into an income.
as a winning strategy then it did not give you a big enough edge if your day job pays more
My gosh! This man's talk is unscripted, the flow is constant & appears to be unedited! Try talking on your fav. subject/topic for 55mins+ and hold your audience, be it the dog, or 60+ people in front of this chap - stunning! VBW Glenn x
He's using images along with it, it's entirely scripted. He just isn't going from a teleprompter or memory. It's how you give a lengthy speech or a lecture. You know the subject and arrange it in a manner that makes sense and flows well.
Didnt notice how long it was, (expecting maybe 25mins) checked time after 40 mins. Very well presented and engaging. Time flew by.
YNWA
who's rewatching the infectious disease guy talk about gambling now since covid 19?
I liked how he talked about John von Neumann's analysis of poker, because I analyzed basically the exact same problem myself and got similar results: bet when you're big or small, but don't bet if you're somewhere in the middle. To be more specific, you should bet at the top 3/7 of cards, and bluff at the bottom 1/7 of cards, so more often than not you're being truthful on your bet. But this only applies with the specific rules where your opponent can't raise you.
Timestamp around 36:00 btw
The house eventually wins in Blackjack purely because you get the chance to go bust first. They may go bust on the same hand but you are already out of the game and they have taken your bet. Thus they effectively win when it's a draw. Worked that out meself, cool.
korkey999 there's a system out there where you always stand on 12 n over. Takes that out of equation n u win more guranteed
Damisn Silletti not according to the maths. If you can count the number of 10s dealt you can increase the odds but my memory is rubbish.
korkey999 if he has a ten you probably lost anyway so stand on all 12 or above the basic strategy is bullshit it turns out watch video i tried it on an app not real life works great try it
Th house does not necessarily. If you use a Blackjack Strategy Chart and sensible wagering strategy you can be on top. Blackjack is the best form of casino gambling, i.e. highest returns to punter. I played Blackjack online years ago and made a return of £400 per month before I moved onto sports trading.
korkey999. not true u need 2 be trainned by a card counter want 2 try that ? kevin lewis 119 w mitchell st. mil; wi 53204 text me at 1414 204-3426
I figured this out about the Lottto back in the 1980's but couldn't profit on it.
Can your knowledge work on covid-19 treatmwnts and predictions of cases, "red areas", etc...
There are definitely sports gambling hacks one can do, but most require a fair amount of money, such as playing on the side of the house against emotional tendencies of casual bettors. Also taking advantage of late news that can affect an outcome.
Where have you been?! I watched video after video of mathematical ideas for winning the lottery and wasted my time with "What the hell are you talking about?" videos that really made no sense and were very long. You are ACTUALLY making sense here!!
Does anyone else get distracted by the cube illusion pattern on the back wall while watching these?
Wallpaper made by Mitsubishi.
No, that's just you
we are what we focus on
you chose to focus on that
then you take Neon White
he wasn't focussing on it , but now is
then you take me
i focus on what i choose to focus on and i will now not focus on it even though you mentioned it
People focus on certain things, but they don't always control what they focus on,
this lack of control is called a distraction
concentrate on something else
I liked it. I thought it was symbolic, because the isometric cubes were randomly visible or invisible.
Q*bert
It's the Q-bert playing board.
This human explains the mathematics very clearly. I have been using these methods for years.
If you enjoyed this talk, you should try the book Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions (by Brian Christian and Tom Griffiths).
Just bought this book on Audible on your recommendation 😊
@@JamesBermingham Audio book was my choice, too! Hope you enjoy it, man
@@DannyPhantumm cheers Droh 👍
You can't take the luck out of games like the Lotto, Set for Life, Euromillions, etc.
Those games are 100% casuality, without any human component which can contain any order of correlation or repeatability. Again, there isn't any non-random component in those games, that can - even minimally - support a forecast.
Playing game of chances is:
1. A little bit: To have some fun;
2. Playing big: for people who need help.
This season The Michigan Wolverines American college football program has very masterfully utilized the "get taught and exploited" strategy, and being a different team in the latest and most important championship games of the season, and are set to play in the semi-final for the national championship. Expect more surprises.
Bots can play for many scenarios, but creativity and novelty tend to be their Achilles heel. My brother beat a chess program set at a very high degree of difficulty by sneaking a pawn in to become a queen while the bot was distracted with other gambits.
Watched entire video and not at all sure the speaker ever explained "How Science is Taking Luck out of Gambling." Simply knowing the Statistical Probability of an event does in no way eliminate an instance of randomness occurring.
Taking is present tense meaning it is removing the luck. The guy explained how science is reducing the luck component in gambling.
The keyword is "reducing" instead of "removing" ....reducing to some acceptable level of uncertainty, say alpha or beta. Removing luck completely is impossible with any game of random variables. But first, what is luck exactly? It's just short term deviance above and below expected behavior. Good luck is above mean, bad luck is below. The only way to remove luck completely would be as number of trials goes to infinity, because only then will your +EV bet perform near that exact +EV with certainty. Unless you devote your life to that +EV bet, your number of trials won't even grow large enough for confidence, much less approach infinity asymptotically. The title is just clickbait. A casino on the other hand, can get many lifetimes worth of trials in any given year, month, probably even day... on a wide variety of +EV bets they've concocted.
Statistics student here, i'll keep it simple, if i know the probability of getting a heads or tails is 50 percent, and i had to predict the outcome of SIX tosses, then there's a high chance that due to random luck, I could get 5 heads and 1 tails. However, if i had to predict the outcome of ONE HUNDRED tosses, it becomes a lot harder to get anything but 50 heads and 50 tails. Basically, as you increase the times you repeat something, it becomes almost impossible for the outcome to deviate significantly from the true probability.
So with that in mind, if I calculated that there's a 60 percent chance of me winning some sort of bet, there's a good chance that due to random luck, that SIX tries could mean I only win twice and end up losing my money. However, if I played the exact same game ONE HUNDRED times it becomes almost impossible for me not to win roughly 60 times and therefore make a profit.
The proof behind this is slightly tricky but makes a lot of sense once you get it. In fact, casinos use this concept to make profits. For example, in the 21 card game, the chance of the house winning is 55 percent (can't remember exactly), because of the amount of games played in a casino, I can guarantee you that their records would show 10 percent higher returns relative to payouts for the 21 card game.
This might be the best lecture I've ever seen in my life. And trust me, my sample size is pretty large!
Deep Blue turned green when it saw how good I was.
I listen to this on my way to sleep each night. It never fails.
One of the most engaging videos I have watched for quite some time. It is still amazing to me to have the knowledge of the world available at your fingertips. Although the subject matter has little to do with my particular area of expertise , I absorbed as much as my brain could handle . Excellent talk Mr. Kucharski !
Its said that literally every topic on earth is now covered in a (or more) youtube video's. Find the right ones and one can skip university :)
LOL Steve remembers 12 digit number. What's your name "I've forgotten". Missed opportunity.
Thankyou for posting this fascinating subject matter, very well told and illustrated by statistician Adam Kucharski. Hilarious watching the audience do Rock, Paper, scissors.
I can remember golf being exploited quite a few years ago. The bet was hole-in-ones, you'd think it was a rare event and someone realised it wasn't and that it happened at every major tournament . The odds went down drastically after. An interesting one is that you can't bet on something like a streaker invading a match because you could put huge money on and actually make it happen. An interesting book is one called Betting for Fun and Profit, it gives a good insight into betting strategies etc.
I'm a fool for commercials before every video I see!! This one has convinced me to switch to a different cell provider. Thinking I'll get to decorate a snowman with sticks!!!. Can hardly wait!
I watched it 10x already, and every single time I focus on something else …great seminar .. Thank You :)
That was the best remedy for my insomnia. It bored me to sleep. Thanks!
It is a pity this person's mother-in-law did not see this.
I started playing a video poker game at a bar top in NV... put 20 in... won 4 out of 5 hands. Cashed out and put 20 more in... won 4 out of 5 again. Rinsed and repeated probably 7 times... then the machine just straight up shut down. I think at that time video games were just letting people win early to try and get them hooked, so I exploited it. But, even when you find an edge, with the flip of a switch they can shut it off.
That's right, if you figure out our they'll just shut you down. It's an evil symptom that preys on the weak and punishes the strong. There's something about the rebelliousness of gaining the edge over the experts that almost makes it worth it.
AS you watch him, you can see that Adam Kucharski's mind is is simply being held back by the limitations of speech speed. His mind seems to be firing of of at light speed. Wow! Good lecture
Well,philosophers have long said that success is hard work plus luck.iam back to the drawing board for my next winning bet.thank you for this lecture.
43:06 interesting that rock-paper-scissors requires a huge increase in noise level.
Rock paper scissors shoot, multiplied a hundred times out of sync
Great talk, makes me pleased to support the RI.
i had a theory in roulette that actually worked. It required patience, discipline and was really very boring because the winning was small. It also required the croupier to stay on the table for above ten spins. wait for the first 4 spins. then on the fifth spin onwards, the best number to bet on was the last winning number, and two numbers each side. 5 equal chips total. the ball eventually starts falling into that pattern. enough times for you to make it a profit for the evening. Even when the croupier puts on a reverse spin, and throws hard, whatever they do a pattern of consistency starts to form, something just falls into a pattern where those numbers come up enough for you to make a profit. The theory does not work with machines doing the spinning and ejecting the ball, nor if the croupier switches table too soon.
Here is a better system, for even outcome situations, Red & Black, High & Low, Odd & Even. Bet the 2nd last outcome each time, double the bet after a loss. So when there is a long run of 23 Red, you are winning each time. Any questions, just reply. The worst losing run occurs when there is this sequence, R R B B R R B B R R B B, have you ever seen that happen?
Fell asleep watching roulette strategy videos woke up to this. Really enjoyed this video
An excellent talk on this subject. Very clear and entertaining, and expertly presented.
One of the best videos I’ve watched in a long time- brilliantly presented!
Just found this but what a great lecture from a professional. Breaks down gambling in a great way making it easy to understand and digest. Thoroughly enjoy the depth and thinking in the lecture.
Gambling definition should also include "the chance of losing your stake". "Any game that is predominantly due to chance where a player can lose their original stake" = Gambling.... Whereas, the UK premium bonds monthly draw isn't really gambling as the stake (investment) is never lost when a player (investor) loses. All winning players receive a share of the monthly total investment interest as prize-money and any losing player (investor) can withdraw their stake (investment) at any time, even after losing that month.
When your professor naturally speaks at 1.25 speed, the lecture becomes engaging.
Poor Phil Hellmmuth- his opponents just aren't good enough to be predictable :o(
lol..best comment on the whole page ;-)
Gambling is ok if you are a winning handicapper and use bankroll management. I'm up 77 units over 650 games at 58.8% from line betting. People either bet too much or too many risky markets
Toe Clipper what are you betting on predominantly?
David C All different sports, game totals
It's not that complicated really. If you're a handicapper lke myself, your betting lines (mostly $1.90, sometimes $1.85 or $1.95 rarely) and to make a profit you need to hit at least 52.4% or around that mark. I have a documented record too, which most people choose not to have.
The only problem with that is you would make a bettter hourly wage working at mcdonalds than putting in all that effort just to make a couple of thousand/hundreds sporsbetting.
The Tomtah Depends on the size of your bets, and the number of bets. People do make a living. In a parimutuel system you can go on winning forever and never get banned. I think.
That specific move within the chess match between the IBM computer and Kasparov was quite funny, actually. Apparently, Kasparov made a move in an attempt to set the computer up, thinking he knew exactly what move it would make. When it didn't make that move, he got really upset and made accusations suggesting there had to be a real player influencing the machine's decisions.
Lol
was that also the move where when they did an analysis of why the computer made that move it analysed the other option as equally good so it chose at random.
Awesome. Can’t believe I watched the whole thing.
A coin toss is not 50/50. It slightly favours the side facing upwards, even if you do not train yourself so that the coin flips an even number of times. The coin has a degree of lateral (Frisbee) spin as it flips.This makes it stay on the original alignment slightly longer & therefore increasing the chance it will land original side up. This is especially true if it lands on a soft surface (as in a sports field) than a hard, like a table, as this reduces the likelihood of it bouncing on impact.
You don't need to be a science or maths genius... it all comes down to price vs probability (ie +EV). The perfect bet is a bet on an event that will pay out more than the likelihood of that event happening, with a sensible staking plan. Actually really simple with today's betting exchange platforms.. Now just go and find a back price that exceeds true value.
In casinos (at least in USA) it's actually forbidden to even out the odds (that are naturally heavily in favour of the house). It does not matter whether you do something perfectly benign as counting cards or something obviously illegal like physically manipulate gambling machines. It's enough for you to have a winning streak that is deemed too successful. Yes, that is right. If you win too much money you can in fact get kicked out (and in some cases actually be forced to return all your winnings) and there is nothing you can do about it. Anyone who gambles at casinos is a fool of the highest order.
They can't make you return your winnings unless they can prove you used a device to cheat. But yes if you count cards you'll get told to leave or forbidden from changing your bets, because casinos don't want to lose. Do you think they built those buildings by letting people have an edge over them?
They encourage you to count cards and use all the systems in the books you buy at the airport.
Counting cards is legal, if the Casino spots you doing it then they will do a "back off"
What a wonderful, enlightening lecture! Dwelling on the content, I believe it helped me understand many facets concerning life! Thanks.
Hlo i don't know English please tell me shortly what s mean this lacture it's talk about law of attraction 🙏🙏🙏🙏
I am definite that as far as the horses are concerned, that probability is more definite when your formula is designed to ensure a more collaborated result or results base on 3 to 6 factors
38:00 we, in quebec used the match, also. we added a fourth iteration of possibilities.
"Ciseaux" cuts "Papier" and "Allumette"
"Papier" covers "Roche"
"Roche" crushes "Ciseaux" and "Allumette"
"Alumette" burns "Papier"
( cisceaux = scissors. Papier = paper. Alumette = Match and roche is rock :) )
wow o:
That means statistically, paper and matchstick are the worse two!
At 13:00 roughly he embarks on talking about Roulette, and the published results. The scientist who examined the results inadvertently caught the journalists lying, and making up numbers. The audience laughed.
Living in Las Vegas I have met a few APs, Advantage Players. They sometimes work in syndicates or teams. Teams working Roulette bias also find it implausible to sit at Roulette tables and measure wheel biases. They employ scouts to go from casino to casino reading the results boards that are used by casinos to attract customers, and reporting those results.
A Roulette team professional I heard on a vlog you can find on YT, stated that the method to catch Roulette scouts who cheat the team is to measure the double number results. That is, to see how often a single number pairs.
Cheating scouts will not include enough pairs in their fictitious results. This is a stark parallel to what the lecturer refers to. Incorrect results reporting is not nearly random enough in its' construction.
MarkH10 a
What a remarkable presentation by an amazing presenter. Adam is suited to explaining and giving great analogies for complex topics such as these. I enjoyed it thoroughly.
What an outstanding presentation!
I am stunned that I actually watched this whole video clip about statistics and probability and all that horrific sort of thing that would normally bore me to tears. He put the different concepts into easy to understand language yet didn't seem to be talking down to or regurgitating a bunch of dumbed down lines. Pretty good.
but what did you learn that was uesful ?
James Holzhauer Jeopardy champ. Banned from Caesar's sportsbook.
If there is one thing I have learned in recent months it is to remain calm, especially when it comes to Trading in bitcoin.
Bitcoin should be transparent and it isn't as easy as people thinks it is ,there are so many strategies to be learnt and unfolded about bitcoin trading.
This is very correct sir.
Bitcoin trading is one good way of paying bills which also create opportunity for crypto believers.
Passive income is the key to financial freedom.
Nothing interests me than talks
about Bitcoin and how to make money trading bitcoin.
27:25 'regression to mediocrity' and nice diagram outlining regression theory in statistics using horse pedigree
How could they stop them? If it wasn't in the rules of the lottery buying 1 or buying 1m tickets shouldn't matter.
They probably didn't. It's likely time, that did.
twas a long time ago, he had already said, they had spent a lot of time filling out the tickets.
probably took ages to go to different stores and have the clerks process all the tickets.
There was an incident in Australia some years ago in which a syndicate used mathematics to calculate that if they backed all the dogs in a greyhound race for a place, with different stakes being wagered on each dog according to the approximate dividend showing just before the race on the tote, they were certain to make a profit. After the syndicate had won a big haul on one race, the tote corporation changed the rules to prevent a repetition of this coup.
Seems like this is possible quite often, if you look at the amount you would have to bet on each entrant in a race in order to win back say $100 then with a single bookmaker it will normally be something like $105-110. However if you shop around and take the best odds available from a range of different bookmakers then the amount you'd need to bet to win that $100 guaranteed is often under $100, I don't know why I've not heard of anyone exploiting this, seems like a safeish way of beating the bookies for a steady profit.
For John Kelly's bet amount formula does your wager amount change each bet. Meaning in your example is it always 25% of your current income? Or 25% of your original amount?
current as its supposed to compound
if you take the original it wont compound but be steady upclimb
Excellent, well presented and entertainingly informative