I value WAR and think it's pretty accurate overall; but the two MVP races this year are examples of it not being spot on imo. Witt is having an amazing year but Judge has been a better player by a good margin; same with Ohtani and Lindor/Marte.....DH makes it tougher to evaluate but Judge being a way, way better hitter than anyone elsewhile being a decent CF means he's been by far the best player in the AL imo.
Defense definitely has value in todays game ofc. Plenty of games can be won on defense. And at the up the middle positions it’s a premium of course. But a defensive run saved will never come close to the value of a run created. You’re always guaranteed a PA you’re not guaranteed as many defensive opportunities for a regular everyday starter.
I think putting a value on defense can be tricky. How does one place a value on how well an infielder turns a DP? They may get one out, but because they mishandled the throw or dropped the ball, they didn't get the second out on a DP ball. With errors it's not always how many they make but when they make them. One also has to consider how their first baseman saves them from errors by scooping throws or picking wild throws. Likewise, if the first baseman is not good defensively, it can affect the other infielders' stats.
If someone is a DH only, how can you compare them to a player who plays defense and has to be on their feet out in the field for an X number of games when the DH is resting in the air conditioned or heated dugout or clubhouse?
Take this to the extreme... let's imagine someone who can only take 100 abs a year, but in every one he hits a home run. Compare that with someone that plays 162 games, makes a bunch of errors, and takes 600abs but only hits .200. Let's say he is kept around because he is "a team leader" or maybe part of the organization for 20 years or whatever. Who is more valuable? Clearly both would be in some extent, but one would be measurably more valuable to the results of any individual game, and over time those benefits add up.
@@brianmolloy9393 still have to put up numbers that will help a team win but all numbers taken in context, and the eye test helps do that I think. It’s not always how many hits you get but when you get them. Sal Brando would hit .230-.250 for the A’s teams that won the championships in a row but he was a captain, played good defense and would drive in 100 runs each year. Did much the same with the Brewers. How does WAR capture his value? His teammates thought he was valuable
All numbers must be taken in context. WAR is based on a formula, and who determines that formula? If the MVP is going to be determined by WAR, why do writers bother to vote? Just run the numbers. What about the eye test and intangibles a player brings to the team to make those around him better?
Isn't the MVP supposed to be the best player in either league? I think the problem is we himans make everything so difficult lol. Just use the 3 stats as criteria.
reality of WAR- in 2008 Ryan Howard’s combined RBI and Runs totals (251) was 32% of run production for the World Champion Phillies. His WAR was 1.9. The Phillies finished ahead of the Mets by 3 games in the standings. WAR tells us that the Phillies yearly results would have gone unchanged by replacing Howard for any replacement. FYI- Lamonte Wade jr. WAR with 73 total runs and RBIs is 11% higher than Ryan Howard’s 2008 season
Huh. So you're saying WAR factored in those player's defense and offense, instead of just their offense? Just like they talk about in the video? Fascinating.
@@Welles009 yes, exactly. Although, they were speculating theory and I provided a supporting real-world example to their argument. Somewhat fascinating but not the word I would use.
@@Welles009It speaks to how flawed that stat is and most are that's why we have others to quantify value. The problem arises when people use WAR as the end all be all when comparing players. Lamonte Wade is not more valuable than prime Ryan Howard but WAR says he is.
@@chunkymonkey428 defense definitely is important but consider this- JT Snow was a highlight film at 1B and won 6 straight gloves from 1996 to 2001. In everyone one of those years he had a negative dWAR. Because WAR does not distinguish between positions so every first baseman starts in the hole. 1B is an offensive position but WAR will reward a guy like Wade who doesn’t drive in runs but walks at a high rate but doesn’t score runs. I know you’re not defending Wade but I’m just elaborately
If you use strictly WAR as the end all be all Andrelton Simmons is one of the greatest players of all time. Of course we reasonably know that's far from the truth.
Numbers, formulas and stats are supposed to help us better understand reality. Are we sure WAR does that? Or are supposed to take their word for it cause they smart? The thing that makes me super dubious is they somehow calculated the defensive WAR value of ole boy who played right field 70 years ago. How is that possible? Please explain to me like I’m a two yo labradoodle.
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I value WAR and think it's pretty accurate overall; but the two MVP races this year are examples of it not being spot on imo. Witt is having an amazing year but Judge has been a better player by a good margin; same with Ohtani and Lindor/Marte.....DH makes it tougher to evaluate but Judge being a way, way better hitter than anyone elsewhile being a decent CF means he's been by far the best player in the AL imo.
Insane that Jose Ramirez is only called a "good hitter" because of his WAR, but he's close to having a 40/40 season.
Resident of 3rd place MVP, damn shame
Defense definitely has value in todays game ofc. Plenty of games can be won on defense. And at the up the middle positions it’s a premium of course. But a defensive run saved will never come close to the value of a run created. You’re always guaranteed a PA you’re not guaranteed as many defensive opportunities for a regular everyday starter.
I think putting a value on defense can be tricky. How does one place a value on how well an infielder turns a DP? They may get one out, but because they mishandled the throw or dropped the ball, they didn't get the second out on a DP ball. With errors it's not always how many they make but when they make them. One also has to consider how their first baseman saves them from errors by scooping throws or picking wild throws. Likewise, if the first baseman is not good defensively, it can affect the other infielders' stats.
If someone is a DH only, how can you compare them to a player who plays defense and has to be on their feet out in the field for an X number of games when the DH is resting in the air conditioned or heated dugout or clubhouse?
Take this to the extreme... let's imagine someone who can only take 100 abs a year, but in every one he hits a home run.
Compare that with someone that plays 162 games, makes a bunch of errors, and takes 600abs but only hits .200. Let's say he is kept around because he is "a team leader" or maybe part of the organization for 20 years or whatever.
Who is more valuable?
Clearly both would be in some extent, but one would be measurably more valuable to the results of any individual game, and over time those benefits add up.
@@brianmolloy9393 still have to put up numbers that will help a team win but all numbers taken in context, and the eye test helps do that I think. It’s not always how many hits you get but when you get them. Sal Brando would hit .230-.250 for the A’s teams that won the championships in a row but he was a captain, played good defense and would drive in 100 runs each year. Did much the same with the Brewers. How does WAR capture his value? His teammates thought he was valuable
@@slundgr doesn't Win Probability Added cover that decently well?
@@brianmolloy9393 That's a team thing I think
All numbers must be taken in context. WAR is based on a formula, and who determines that formula? If the MVP is going to be determined by WAR, why do writers bother to vote? Just run the numbers.
What about the eye test and intangibles a player brings to the team to make those around him better?
Isn't the MVP supposed to be the best player in either league? I think the problem is we himans make everything so difficult lol. Just use the 3 stats as criteria.
reality of WAR- in 2008 Ryan Howard’s combined RBI and Runs totals (251) was 32% of run production for the World Champion Phillies. His WAR was 1.9. The Phillies finished ahead of the Mets by 3 games in the standings. WAR tells us that the Phillies yearly results would have gone unchanged by replacing Howard for any replacement. FYI- Lamonte Wade jr. WAR with 73 total runs and RBIs is 11% higher than Ryan Howard’s 2008 season
Huh. So you're saying WAR factored in those player's defense and offense, instead of just their offense? Just like they talk about in the video? Fascinating.
@@Welles009 yes, exactly. Although, they were speculating theory and I provided a supporting real-world example to their argument. Somewhat fascinating but not the word I would use.
@@Welles009It speaks to how flawed that stat is and most are that's why we have others to quantify value. The problem arises when people use WAR as the end all be all when comparing players. Lamonte Wade is not more valuable than prime Ryan Howard but WAR says he is.
Absolutely terrible defense will do that to you.
@@chunkymonkey428 defense definitely is important but consider this- JT Snow was a highlight film at 1B and won 6 straight gloves from 1996 to 2001. In everyone one of those years he had a negative dWAR. Because WAR does not distinguish between positions so every first baseman starts in the hole. 1B is an offensive position but WAR will reward a guy like Wade who doesn’t drive in runs but walks at a high rate but doesn’t score runs. I know you’re not defending Wade but I’m just elaborately
great stat but we need more to help tell the story
If you use strictly WAR as the end all be all Andrelton Simmons is one of the greatest players of all time. Of course we reasonably know that's far from the truth.
Numbers, formulas and stats are supposed to help us better understand reality. Are we sure WAR does that? Or are supposed to take their word for it cause they smart? The thing that makes me super dubious is they somehow calculated the defensive WAR value of ole boy who played right field 70 years ago. How is that possible? Please explain to me like I’m a two yo labradoodle.
@@johnofmalta I'll never understand this