Is The AI Trade Over? The Number That Sent NVIDIA Shares FALLING
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- Опубликовано: 13 сен 2024
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From Q2 25 press release: "GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 74.4% and 75.0%, respectively, plus or minus 50 basis points. For the full year, gross margins are expected to be in the mid-70% range."
As stated, they're aiming for mid-70s. The gross margin reported in this ER is right on target. What about past press releases? Let's take a look:
Q1 25: "GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 74.8% and 75.5%, respectively, plus or minus 50 basis points. For the full year, gross margins are expected to be in the mid-70% range."
Q4 24: "GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 76.3% and 77.0%, respectively, plus or minus 50 basis points."
Q3 24: "GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 74.5% and 75.5%, respectively, plus or minus 50 basis points."
Last quarter was exceptional, but they've made it clear that the goal is mid-70s. Now, if they fall below their stated target significantly, that would be cause for concern, but that's not the case.
great video, can you make pdd stock,thank you
Nvidia’s profit is Meta, Googles, Amazons expenditure. I don’t think those guys will keep spending this kind of money forever.
thank you captain obvious...
Unless these expenditures are investments that give them more advantages than competitors. Chips from 2024 will be outdated in a few years so companies will be upgrading to keep their competitive advantage
They have to, its to expensive to fall behind competitors
i dont understand the share buy back
Yeah, I don't understand why a share buyback at a high valuation would be considered to be a good use of capital either. Share buybacks make sense at relatively low valuations but not at relatively high ones.
@@sebfox2194 In the the past whenever company want to payout to share holder they main tool is dividends, but now company like to buy back stock and inturn increase share prices due to high demand and lower share quantity.
nobody says they will do it at these prices
They have $10B+ cash coming in per quarter, but no particular use/need for it. They had the idea to acquire ARM, but regulators quite rightly didn't allow it. Buybacks are a way to reduce the massive cash pile and reward shareholders. They'll do the buybacks gradually over time. They still have half of their previous $15B share buyback program remaining.
@@sebfox2194 Because they probably understand better than any other where their business is going. We will look back on these days in 5 years time just like we look back at the price 5 years ago and we will all be like, damn, we underestimated Nvidia.
What do you think of smci?
Long Term Mindset, My guy, your content is on point. Collab in the future?
The last few quarters are undeniably impressive. My hesitation comes in the thought that this is a byproduct of a first mover advantage on AI, but one based on brand value NOT product or strategy. Blackwell can dispel this a little but it can’t be discounted that competitors arguably have better tech today. Unreliability on performance data throws a wrinkle in this.
who has better tech ?
@@anonymousanonym450 I would argue that AMD has 1) a bigger AI/data center ecosystem of products 2) an engineering advantage
Thats a tough argument to make buddy
That is a wild statement 😂
@@brandongitles7191 what kind of information do you have to back any of that up? genuinely interested not attacking
Any thougths on SMCI??
Ya I see absolutely zero reason to sell my shares. People selling because margins went down from 76 to 75% are probably not long term investors.
75% in good cycle. What about bad one?
Margins should be higher on Blackwell
No one has ever done 75% on 30 billion so fast we are in uncharted territory. They are building a brand new technology while also just starting H200.
Great earning, long term hold for me.
Margin reduction isn't coming from lack of pricing power, it is coming from supplier costs. I.e TSM has pricing power.
TSM is a cheap semiconductor stock that has the widest moat and pricing power over all the designers who have risk of being deep in competition in coming years.
I'm going for AMD!!
‘As of the time of this recording I *clenches fist* do not own shares of nvidia 😅
Rather go with QQQM and call it a day.
My thesis, which is highly speculative, is that Nvidia will become 50% software company. Providing the platform for something like robotics (AI for Robotics), autonomous driving (Nvidia DRIVE) or even climate modeling (earth 2.0)... They have so many irons in the fire. Everyone is way too laser focussed on their chips. Their optionality is spectacular. Their client base and access is second to none. They are on the cutting edge of all the world's biggest industries. For the record, my average buy price is $23. This feels like the quietest reaction in a long time.
Do you have any evidence that Nvidia is gaining dominance in any of these domains? It seems that all the robotics and self-driving solutions are mostly in-house especially from the software standpoint, and competition is already fierce. Just because Nvidia won chips doesn't mean it can conquer any other market.
I think what happened is this - from the huge demand from AI chips, Nvidia received a lot of investor attention. They made good use of it by presenting numerous futuristic use-cases and now everyone has some reason to invest in Nvidia, when the reality is that they're still a chip company and will likely remain so. Chips are cyclical and competition is coming (custom chips), so Nvidia is due for a massive correction.
Become a software company and compete with their own customers? What a brilliant idea, you should replace Jen-Hsun Huang and be their new CEO!
It's falling today, Tuesday, and day after Labor Day... I own 260 shares of nvidea. My average cost is $77 per share. I want to own more. Keep dropping 🙏 weed out these stock traders and scared investors. I just transferred a few thousand ready to buy the discount! 😊
When they get done building 500 mini nuclear plants come talk to me they don't have the power to run 5 data centers let alone 500
Basically, people just be idiots.
Held since 2015. Thought I was a big hero when I sod some at 300, then 400 (pre- split). Still holding, and I've forgiven myself. No one has seen anything like this!
This channel used to be a solid source of quality information, but now unfortunately seems to be heading the way most channels do with a focus on “click bait” over quality
Facts. All a bunch of losers.
honestly i disagree with you, these guys have a fairly objective view about every stock they analyze. there’s nothing wrong with making videos on the most popular stocks in the market.
Pansy
How!? This video was so informative
Title may be clickbait but content is not and in fact, way more informative than most other videos I’ve watch. I’m happy I clicked on this clickbait title.
Cycle over: NVDA to $1. :p ... ... JK. ... ... They are still IT until they are they are not. And we will all know when that happens.
If Kamala wants to find monopolies who are price gouging she should look here, not food retailers. 😂
Exactly, I recently purchased 100 H100 GPU from NVDA for my modest private usage, and I agree that this market should use some more fair competition to keep the costs low for an average US citizen.
Targeting big tech won't win her propaganda but groceries retailer and drug companies will. On the flip side, hurting big tech will threatens Dems voice on social media and the donations from Wall Street.
Way to overreact and use a title for clickbait. It worked on me. Please stop doing this.
He won’t. He’s a pos like the rest of them. They’ll keep doing it as long as it works. All we can do in unsubscribe and un-recommend the channels. Take away their cash flow. It’s the only way they will learn. Losers.
Facts, dude is trash.
good try buffalo breath
big crash of nvdia
This cycle will last a long time and Nvidia will be there to lead in the next cycle as it is a highly innovative and visionary company. Did anyone predict 10 years ago that Nvidia would be the leader in Data Centers? What new industry will it lead and possibly create in 2034?
Long $NVDA
When customers have enough chips and custom chips, the bottom will fall out of Nvidia. Better to buy then, for 2034.