"RBA doesn't get it" Mark Bouris & Stephen Koukoulas Monthly Update
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- Опубликовано: 16 сен 2024
- Guess who's back? Property Insights with Mark Bouris and our expert economist Stephen Koukoulas, to discuss all the latest market updates for this month and beyond, fresh off the back of another decision to HOLD rates by the Reserve Bank. But for how long?
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Questions for Mark & Kouky before their next episode? Drop them below!
Why do we have quantitative easing and tightening? Does this create inflation?
When is the government going to crack down on the cash/black economy.
People claiming unemployment benefits and working for cash at the same time. Makes me sick.
What do you make of Brent Johnstone's dollar milkshake? Do you think AUD will fall sparply by years end and what would happen if it did?
@@marcoschena99 I think you’re concentrating on the small fry. How about government overreach on every level from councils through to federal which Is stifling individuals & business. How about draconian laws & fines that are pure revenue raising & populace control. How about govt debt & its mismanagement. Just to name a few.
A cash economy is a symptom of a much bigger problem
@@yellowbrickroadtv energy costs drive up prices for everything and is a major factor in inflation. Why are we pursuing this unrealistic green energy policy and on-top of that we are giving a huge percentage of our gas away for free. It all starts there fix that and fix the economy
Commercial aircon manufacturers in Dandenong, quietest we’ve been in 12 years, 6 workers taking leave
You both appear to be completely unaware of the devaluation of the FIAT currencies in your understanding of what is happening in the economy. Q.E is devaluing the dollar, which in turn making it look like asset prices are rising. They aren't if you price them against real money (gold). Asset prices going up makes shelter especially, too expensive. This devaluation of the dollar is another way of taxing us, where raising taxes is politically unwelcome. Anything to avoid a recession. Recessions are healthy. They clear out failing businesses that can only survive on low interest rates.
Amen to this! Indeed, look at the extra money needed for a Brisbane house. 70% more of the folding stuff needed, compared to 2018.
Guy you should know this - Cole’s and woolies do well in hard times as people are going to supermarket to shop and not eating out.
Their shares are defensive in nature at bad time too.
Very quiet been in business for 13 years.
The last 8 months things have dropped off a cliff volume is down 40 per cent.
Small garden business.
I find it very hard to understand they keep creating more and more government jobs that are paid for by us taxpayers which in turn changes the unemployment rate artificially .
Yet all the small business are getting absolutely hammered by these highly constrictive policies.
@@jvvoid the OP is posting about small businesses versus government bureaucracy, and highlighting that interest rates are going up to affect the unemployment rate (destroy economy a bit) but government employees are skewing the average unemployment number, and their gardening business is down 40% in volume. That’s decimated.
There might be an increase in front line staff that comes with this at state level, but federally, no. I’ll also add, the police are losing front line staff hand over fist, newer recruits are cheaper and less effective than the staff leaving. And I worked in healthcare- the administration is worse than the tv show utopia. Much worse.
Your post also assumes that government spends the money it gets efficiently. Which it doesn’t.
Down 40% sounds like a challenging period and I hope you find a way to pivot your business. The country needs more people like you. Are you open to moving to a different state?
@@NoRegertsHere I saw it coming mate and have a low mortgage and own all my cars equipment etc and have kept my overhead low.
I'll ride through it and come out the other side.
I feel for alot of people who bought the new big truck and did the big renovation or even fix address businesses there doing it tough .
@@coops01 that’s great to hear mate. Yeah, I moved to a more recession proof division of my employer too. 👍🏿
@@NoRegertsHere awesome mate all the best with everything and thanks for the insights.
debt levels today compared to the 1990's is off the charts...
Grubberments around the World have long been using a Debt Based monetary system. Not hard to control online ledgers...just add a few zeros here and there. Doesn't require PHYSICAL $$$$$...just manipulated numbers on a spreadsheet...
EASY🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🏘🏘🏘🏘🏘🏘🏘🏘
Yes, people need to be taught a lesson.
I run a commercial property maintenance business and It would take weeks to get a quote back from a subcontractor. I am now having them call me back within 2 hours of sending the quote request. This hasn't happened for years. Things have slowed considerably
Things have gone back to normal you mean.
Yeah I work at my fathers glazing business that his owned for 35 years and materials that would usually take 2 - 4 weeks are coming in, in 2 - 3 days so we've had to stop putting orders in otherwise we're going to have no room to store everything so the suppliers are upping their prices we have had a 100 - 200% increase in material cost since covid it is getting pretty bad were lucky we have around two years worth of work booked in ahead of times but if materials keep going up at this rate it could quite literally put us out of business not being able to do the jobs for the prices we've quoted and we don't get paid until the jobs are done so it really is bad.
@Mustang85635 it's been busy for 30 years so what's normal to you?
@@aaronaaron3003 those prices will go down eventually it’s all speculation and greed from suppliers. As soon as orders stop coming as you are doing the prices will adjust and will go down.
Putting house prices at "Neutral" (~54 mins) and skipping along with dismissive comments highlights a clear bias. Being a mortgage broker there are certain lies that you just have to stick with.
The longer I hear RBA, Economists and others talking about "room occupancy" the more I get the sense they want us all living with family, investing in getting family ready rather than speculation. Then I turn over to defence being built up in Australia and whether we are being prepped for war. In that frame then I can see what RBA is saying about "preserving employment". I'm also noticing Banks jaw boning for rate cuts (for profits) and they've been told rate cuts not coming. Seems lack of confidence in bank lending moderation and what I'm seeing in other podcasts people are buying every 6 months so something is clearly distorted.
Very anti Michelle B. I think you will find she is doing the right thing. It's Albo and Jim that need to slow down the spending, pay down the debt and stop giving away money.
100%
She was a bad choice 😮
That the liberals mainly created
Correct
A lot of people just don't realise how much damage high inflation for long periods of time does. I side with the RBA for sure on not cutting interest rates. I think people are looking to them for a solution when they don't have one. It is really up to the federal government to solve the cost of living crisis as they are largely responsible for it.
What role is massive ongoing immigration playing?
Overloading the sewerage system .
@@stewatparkpark2933 And everything else too.
Increasing demand for housing, food, services and also masking per capita economic performance.
On the flip side, they are contributing to fixing labour shortages and medium to long term are bet contributors to the positive.
Just because the government shut down the economy during Covid and some governments are increasing taxes on citizens at the same time as localised state recessions may be already here.
So higher taxes and disruptive policies at the same time as a local recession are at odds.
Could be ok, but will take a couple of years for house prices to stabilise
@@NoRegertsHeregtfo ... gdp growth of 0.1 percent. We are in recession, mass migration brought nothing good nothing.
@@sportsfamily4569 yep. Victoria probs in recession, but as individual states performing differently, perhaps not all states are in recession.
Mass immigration injection was a poor decision, except for any that came that are labourers or tradies.
It’s going to take a few years for any benefit to be seen.
If you reread my post, I agree with you
Inflation is actually only a problem in oligopolistic cartel like markets where they have total pricing power open collusion and government regulations are Non-Existent or ineffective. Insurance, energy, health, education, transport, housing. These are essentials. Interest rates don't cut it. These require strong regulatory and legal frameworks but instead we have government collusion and inaction. Unions have been gutted if you want to know why we have wage stagnation. Manufacturing gutted. Construction industry in shambles. Pathetic building quality spanning decades. Inequality is at a peak. Immigration is now being used to prop up the investor property market. Yeah this is a mess that the RBA alone has no power to fix.
I just chocked on my dinner..'Dog Shit Vic economy' Mark you hit it on the head! Now how do we rid Victoria of the criminal politicians.... Love your work Lads, keep sticking it to them...please help 🙏
This is because the Victorian government destroyed industry during COVID. So many businesses lost. The RBA position exasperates this situation. Are they in touch??
@@jvvoidVictorian politicians ARE terrible. Are you actually defending them?!
"how do we get rid of the politcians" ah google the word election mate.
Share price (14.46 minutes) is not the economy and has no effect on cost of living. Company profits inflation is the real problem with this cost of living crisis i.e. not government spending.
I have a serious question,
How does having tax payers paying for more unemployed people help??
This is something I just can't get my head around
More people looking for same job puts downward pressure on wage growth. Employers don't have offer more to get workers.
@@peterforsyth962 thankyou, I get that but surely if less people are putting demand on tax levels then taxes will be lower, then less work is needed to pay for life style, then more employment is created, more imagination can be achieved, more house and shops are needed, more employment created, more room for growth and so.
Or am I just nieve in thinking this way
@@noelaird3273 You are not naive but higher unemployment benefits big business as more people competing for jobs so they can be paid less. It looks good on paper and the value of company shares go up. Add to this the way banks love it when people get into debt to maintain their life style. Big business and banks have a lot of lobbying power. Governments have been using immigration to cover over the problem.
Govt spendings are driving inflation, not business or consumer spending.
‘The area where there is Government demand’ ie gov jobs and sectors off the gov purse are big drivers of spend, while the real drivers of growth and GDP are private industry and SMEs that have been cut off at the knees w this gov’s policies. Let’s not discuss productivity or competition. Full respect Stephen & Mark for the show, if we add in the macro environment we should all be preparing for the worst.
He obviously doesn’t check the share market much. Coles shareprice is near all time high. Super retail group is near all time high. JB HI-Fi all time high. Kouk needs to get his facts right.
Betting against the Kouk worked all the time :)
Coles shares are lower today than they were in July 2020
Super retail group has added 8% since July 2021
Coles is only just lower than that date and SUL has risen 40% since it’s low last year. Point I’m making is the stocks he mentions in retail and groceries are not in trouble at all like he says. They are also paying really healthy dividends! They also trade like dividend stocks.
I had a quick look through JB’s results. Paying a massive dividend, reports saying it’s a strong result. But I felt quite a bland or even negative outlook compared to the past. Exceptional business, and no matter what the economy does, they are very well placed to respond and have form in doing so. I just didn’t see the justification for a near 10% increase in share price.
Has anybody asked the question with the high building costs contributing to inflation leaking into insurance inflation,
What role has the CFMEU high costings played in this?
Some, but the white collars in that scene are just as dirty as well.
CFMEU don't build houses.
@@alexwest4629 I realise that but their over quoting and payments to middle management surely have contributed to rising building material and labour costs.
The RB governor is correct in saying the economy is running hot , it is ! House prices, rents, govt spending i.e state & fed, and other pockets of the economy are red hot atm. Prices are simply too high imo. But the downside is mortgage holders and renters and other businesses are being squeezed as a result I.e transport industry , building ect. The solution is simple raise interest rates by 2% & short term pain will equal long term gain for everyone. Inflation would dissipate , prices will return to normal and that will benefit everyone in a few years.
Too many youtubers will be annoyed for this to happen.
The hot market will continue to happen as the people buying aren't borrowing. They're cashed up. Melbourne is dropping due to the sell off of investment properties due to the Vic government's high taxes imposed. This is causing cashed up buyers to reinvest up north. I did. Blame Dan Andrews 😆
@@3800TURBOcashed up ppl leaving. The exact kinds of ppl a sound state government would want to keep. Innovative ppl are leaving too, as the opportunities are much better elsewhere. I can’t believe ppl support Andrews
The RBA is not living in the real world. They have no idea how to run a business and what the stresses are. Geez come down to Victoria its terrible here.. Why would the RBA "get it"? aren't they all public servants?
Stop voting Labour for decades it’s all Victorias fault. No one feels bad for you guys. You all voted Labour at one point in time thinking you are some leftist utopia
Dan spent too much and put Vic into debt
I don't think the RBA is worried about you alone, there are a lot of other factors at play. Everyone in Australia knows what damage Dan Andrews did. When housing prices are still rising, somebody is doing OK. If you look at 10 or 15 years, interest rates are high, if you look beyond the last 20 years they are fairly low.
@@robm1415 Well that's true (to some extent) but the thing is Victoria is a very large part of the Australian economy and is often forgotten about by Canberra and people anywhere north of Albury. Victoria is already in recession and the shocking management of the Victorian economy (and it's appalling debt) will eventually bite *all* Australians (in a similar way Greece affects every other Euro country) That's because Dan (and now Jacinta) can't "print their way" out of the mess - like the Commonwealth can (having sovereign power over the AUD). Consequently the Victorian fiasco is deflationary not inflationary... Just MO
@@wapphigh5250 agree completely. And momentum has set in, plenty of people selling up and taking their capital and their businesses to other states. WA is booming (while China is buying resources). But Victoria really suffering. Imagine destroying small business during Covid, then taxing those small businesses and their customers more to pay for it all. Can you relocate?
If you combine record government infrastructure spending and huge spending on the NDIS with record immigration, perhaps you get high inflation. Just a thought. The unemployment rate is probably important, but compared to these other factors, is it dominant?
this is not economic commentary its activism
The RBA must guarantee prosperity 🤣
Genuine question: would you recommend any other economic commentary that might be more balanced or contrary to this?
@@incog-neto5668 The best thing you can do is find educational material. Any commentary will have personal opinion undertones.
@@AussieZeKieLwhere from?
@@brendand9721 Milton Friedman is an economist and excellent teacher. So I’d look him up on RUclips.
I just looked up coles share price over the last 5 years, its up 34.39%.
The fuck are you talking about
Unlike other of us in other goods & services, we still give them money as we & our kids need to eat.
How about after you adjust for inflation
@@jvvoid that's not 5 years genius. 5th aug 2019 = $13.14.
@@jvvoid bully for you that you can admit you were wrong. Gj 👍
correct me if im wrong i thought inflation went up as it went from 3.6 to 3.8 so we are starting to go up again but it is all due to policies from labor printing money into the economy RBA has only one thing it can do and labor is doing everything to make it harder
That is headline inflation. The trimmed mean which strips out anomalies, volatile items and artificially modified numbers from government policies/subsidies etc went down as it has consistently for the last 20 months In a row, that's the one that the RBA look at.
@@johncarmen9963 That is the 3.8% though so its gone up last month the one with more variability had it at 4.1 so either way its up
@@rhoabyemratn the trimmed mean was 4.0% for the March quarter and dropped to 3.9% in the June quarter. Quarterly CPI trimmed mean is what the RBA focus on for their cash rate decisions.
Trimmed or untrimmed, they want it less than 3% for a sustained period. They will sacrifice unemployment to get there. I suppose choice of phrase not perfect- they will deliberately cause increase in unemployment to bring down inflation.
It might be they keep rates where they are for an extended period to allow time for the economy to adjust, on balance with different economies in different states and public and private sector jobs both influencing unemployment rate.
And I think that two tiered unemployment rate is one of the things they were referring to with public sector job increases offsetting private sector job losses.
1:20: The economy running hot? I agree. Seen the traffic around Brisbane (even with 50 cent public transport)? It's mental. The roads are at capacity and beyond. That's a sign that rates are too low.
And housing is rising at 16% per annum.
It feels like brisbane is at capacity but people keep moving here. It's becoming more like Sydney and Melbourne
The part of the economy that is running hot is the migration numbers which is increasing demand of goods and services plus needs for more housing and infrastructure spending. And the supply capacity is not improving.
Stephen, all he ever talks about is Keating. He lives in the past. Simple story boys' government spending is essentially propping up the economy and keeping the interest rates at the higher end of the range. Full stop.
Ive watched Mark on n off on TV, interviews etc. but seeing him with his Kouki i now see this is the real Mark, in the sense of a true Mark minus the glitz/glamour of public image etc. You guys are such a lovely,funny pair that compliments eachother👍
I wish i had that with an old friend😞
Id love to go out for a coffee with Steve one day. He's comforting to listen to and mentally stimulating on the finance front. Is there a contact for Steve?
On another note...Yes Australia is heading to a bad state. 1930's on the horizon, it could be coming. Inflation, ha! Real inflation is about 15% and monetary debasement is 8% a year, and this country is getting slowly ruined the govt bringing in the bad, crappy foreigners that dont give to the country just take, shit on and breed.
The government stimulating with capital spending, immigration, and uncapped service spending to private providers ie NDIS/Healthcare. Yet it is the RBA who are the bad guys.
Many of these people predicted the inflation rate recovery to already happened, demanding rates drops despite ongoing higher inflation figures indicate a strong bias.
This is the best economics podcast!
4.35 is not high..should be 5...the ship will right itself if it stays 5..yes some pain after the operation but the patient will live a better life.
Mark the recession we had to have was the 1980s
The government should be taxing (the largely foreign owned) corporations in the mining sector instead of letting the banks put up interest rates if they want more money in their economy.
I don’t understand what their point is. Do they agree with fed gov or RBA?
On one hand it might be cold and on the other hand it might be hot
“She couldn’t say it because she is meant to be independent” that doesn’t make any sense.
5yrs ago coles shareprice was 13.52, today 18.20. Again wildly incorrect statements
@samueldell5428 anyone can cherry pick like you have. 4 years ago Coles share price was $19.12
@@aaronhann4931
Their commentary literally said that Coles stock was down over the last 5 years. It's actually up over 34%.
That’s a nominal increase. How about inflation adjusted returns. That tells a different story.
He specifically stated 5yrs in this conversation.
Great if in the future the conversation could consider the Australian dollar foreign exchange SOFR and those elements that affect AUD. RBA must consider the aforementioned in the face of influences of surplus / deficient.
So Perth house prices rising at 25% per year?
Indeed, the RBA doesn't get it. The cash rate should be at 5% if not 5.5%.
The issue is Melb and Tas are falling. Australia really has 7 different economies due to each state having completely different laws. Atm investors are selling up in Melb and buying up in Adelaide and Perth. Auction rates and prices are starting to level off now.
Other factors causing prices to rise too
@@3800TURBOterrible government in Vic. Looks like they are already hitting recession
Where the RBA got it wrong was keeping interest rates too low for too long. I do not recall you guys raising that major problem! The RBA is doing the right thing at the moment but the government has not helped since around 2022 when they ran immigration intake on steroids! Be upfront on any conflicts of interest!
great insight, lad's
Its a hot economy if you are rich
Great Podcast, Finally someone cutting through the political and media spin
Awesome work mate
Gentleman its a burn out economy the RBA is trying to slow the economy and the government is turbo charging it hilarious
Why aren't house prices ever talked about? we are the 2nd most expensive country in the world with regards to house prices. Big debt no spending money. Too much on mortgages.
How much impact does the hiring for virtual assistants and the use of ai affect the job ad numbers?
So the guy who writes home loans and the labor party hack both wishing the rates would drop. Such a shock
Mandatory viewing - thank you.
Don’t let this distract you from the fact that Hector is going to be running three Honda civics with spoon engines, and on top of that, he just went into Harry’s and bought three t66 turbos with nos, and a motec exhaust system.
I love these. Such good insights
Woolworths made 1.48b to 1.97b from 2016 to 2023. there profit is pretty stable year after year. I don't see we are spending less in groceries and Woolworths profit isn't declining for the stock prices to go down. House prices going up with no end in sight, the money is getting into the hot market somehow. Please explain???
2:30: The recession we had to have. Dudes, people everywhere have stopped working or giving a fu#k due to the complete devaluation of currency. I.e. trying buying a house with the wages we get paid.
We need another RECESSION to clear this sh#t out!
An interest rate drop will just mean Perth houses start going up 30% a year instead of 25%.
Try buying concrete . You have to book it a week in advance if you want it delivered before 2pm .
When lower unemployment rates are a result of more government funded jobs being made available......its worse for the economy. Its a bigger drain on the taxpayer
Slowing economy, rising unemployment are not desirable but they are cyclical. Sticky inflation is long term. If you don't do the job properly you are back at square one. Current RBA has such a difficult task, exacerbated by Lowe's incompetence early on. Government spending and tax cuts also a factor.
I've been in business since 2000. Never been this quiet ever!!! Not even when I started in my trade back in 1992, at least in the last recession food & rent were more affordable. Foodbanks are being stripped bare, Australian kids are going hungry, that's a disgrace.
@@jvvoidthey want a depression at this rate, I’ve been in business since 2016 and this year has just being a downward spiral in VIC, down 40% in the construction transport industry
I think unemployment rate is 4.8% before the RBA will start to cut. I think a change of government federally a tighter budget spending and reduction in migration by the Liberals will also force the RBA’s hand. I think a rate cut of 1% by mid 2026 will occur it has to with the first 0.25% by February 2025 at the latest.
Plus an energy policy which is pro manufacturing, affordable and reliable ….
I don't think anyone gets it. Interest rates are not the problem. House prices and immigration levels are. Why doesn't anyone get this? We will never fix our economy if we don't admit and recognise the problem. We have a capitalist crisis. In a normal healthy economy interest rates should be sitting at between 4 - 6%. Australia's economy is not normal. The Australian economy is so screwed that the RBA's only economic lever's no longer work properly. But what choice do they have? The Albanese government is so useless and reckless with their spending (trying to win votes) and Immigration that they keep fueling inflation. It's simple math, If you keep increasing population you increase demand. When infrastructure and services don't keep up with the population growth and demand, guess what? Prices go up and you get inflation. It's a simple problem that bother's me how much people do not get. The real problem is there no so simple solution because our stupid current and previous governments have been fuelling the housing market and inflation for so long that it can't be easily fixed. Many other Western countries have the same issue but most are getting over their inflation problems because they recognise the cause. We don't. Please wake up people we need to lobby the government for a more sustainable population and economic growth. Lazy economics of mass immigration without any planning is not the answer.
@@jvvoid ???
Government jobs only works if we pay taxes and have private sector jobs.
With the Aussie dollar tanking 10-15% vs Yen and Swiss Franc over two weeks, the two currencies holding up well during crises, the last thing you want to do is to put forward a rate cut in the AUD. Not unless you'd like to see it drop another 20% and face double-digit inflation in imported goods next year.
UE is still in the lowest 5% prints in history , Its never been lower in a holistic sense
I'm coming across homeless camps in the national parks on my bush walks - I have never ever found that before - things are worse than they (media, bus and gov) are letting on. How is wishful thinking going to fix anything? Forestall things at the best, but also setting us up for a bigger crash?
So why is no one talking about us getting more from our resources to pay for infrastructure and other government things we give our gas away free in WA, nobody wants to talk about how we are being used by overseas corporations for our resources and the public hate it, how about we stamp down on that, I would like to know what happens when we have nothing left to sell and keep inporting people that we can’t afford. The problem is shared accross all western countries. Funny that hey
We think about lots of things, that's why we get the big bucks.
That's what they do in The Big Bang TV show at work, they think about a lot of things.
markets are hot af... house prices to the moon
@@jvvoid oh for sure, cancelling negative gearing and see how fast the house prices fall > then CPI
Has the Kouk ever called for a rate increase?
The rba doesn't cut the rates. The market cuts the rates. Rba is data dependent. They only follow the market.
If you look beyond 20 years, interest rates are still fairly low. You cannot kill the sharemarket (very strong), housing prices are borderline ridiculous in Australia, people could find plenty of money for Taylor Swift (is that how you spell it). I was in the prime of my working life during the "recession we had to have" (and suffered the consequences) but this feels nothing like it to me. The other big issue worth thinking about is, everyone keeps talking about, "when interest rates come down", and that may well happen, but does anyone seriously believe they are going to go back to where they were???? I think not, maybe down by 0.75% in 2026 ??? The people who are hurting, (sorry to say) are the people who borrowed too much at time when interest rates were at "emergency" lows.
The best question asked here was "is it possible believing we can escape this with an unemployment rate with a 4 in front of it is wishful thinking?"...
Yes, yes, absolutely yes. You csnt escspe the business cycle and the RBA believes it can avoid all economic history.
But kouk says no, coz it means we need a higher interest rate given our drawn out inflation...and that is bad for his portfolio..
No recessiopn. Immigration is much to high, every new person adds to GDP so its impossible to have two quarters lower than the last. Per capita recession, sure, every new person makes the life of existing residents worse and, each new person adds demand and inflationary pressure. So the reason you will have to sell your property after losing your car is so we can bring skilled immigrants who become Uber eats delivery riders because they cant speak English. I am fine with this because I hire out the e-bikes to the new people, can't beat em,. profit off em.
We need reasonable interest rate for investors, mortgage holders are not the only consideration here. 5pc is reasonable and necessary for investors so it provides those funds for mortgages. Without investors, a lot less mortgages would be written.
I have a simple question, or more a thought point cos there may not be a simple answer.
What sort of an economy would we want (we being australia) if we were getting ready for a war of global proportions.
????
The police are chronically short these days. The money pays recruits to sure up the numbers, but its not an increase in the police budget. So technically its zero sum. However, "back in black" Joshie was headed for recession and it was only COVID that took the economic heat off... until we had to pay the stimulation bill. Which is now.
I remember when ten percent inflation was normal, I am showing my age.
Complete nonsense
No wonder no one listens to these in regards to the economy
Imagine making such a blatantly incorrect comment lol
As much as we need more hospital staff it’s inflationary as there is no extra productivity except for getting sick people back into productive jobs. I have 3 businesses health/primary production and retail all have negative growth and I am trimming so my suppliers are under pressure too.
JBH ripping though
As the RBA said its mainly goverment spending that is driveing up inflation which in turn is keeping interest rates up if labour gets in again idd bet rates will go to 7 percent our treasure has same proble. That elbow has tells lies and doseint care
They want people unemployed on centerlink so people spend local, which boosts gdp
What’s driving inflation is all this NDIS spending
Is it RBA that "does not get it" or the DEI appointees managing RBA? Does any body understand the complex nature of modern Economies? Rules and regulations, manipulation by interest Groups. Do we even understand the consequential nature of our conduct? Zero interest rate advocated by RBA fueled by political interest is part of the reason why we are here today.
Does State and Federal Government spending putting the country deeper in the red, affect inflation? What are we as a country paying every day in interest on the money borrowed. Surely, this has some impact on inflation?
My guy... RBA decisions on interest rates massively impact exports and imports as well... The bigger positive Delta we have on our rates relative to other countries in similar markets makes our exports less competitive due to a stronger aud... It also makes importing things like petroleum cheaper for us... And vice versa... A lot of this conversation is disjointed disorganised rambling
@@jvvoid the dood said the RBA only has levers for the domestic economy which is false. The RBA cash rate impacts basically everything. My statement was a hypothetical
For inflation dont forget excise tax that's just gone up again on alcohol and smokes and soon fuel a catch 22 for inflation and fuel is needed to make and more good and services and is direct impact on prices and thus inflation!
Unemployment won’t go to 6% as immigration will be capped from next year. This will keep pressure on labour shortages
Koukoulas should be working at the RBA…
Keep in mind there is under employment for some people and we have a lot of vocational training which is skewing the numbers of unemployment when egg heads compare historical data. Lets be real immigration has cooked the books and caused the higher for longer inflation. Land banking has been a contributing factor to higher property prices. The uber wealthy financiers of the world wanted higher interest rates to maximize arbitrage opportunities. The uber rich don't make as much money in a sideways markets, pump and dump rinse and repeat. Counties Economies are the same deal, seems strange we all admire China's claim to fame, they did it by running their economy at 4 to 5 times our growth rate.
Constantly crashing the economy is not going to end well for western economies, it kills of capital of innovation and then the government needs to prop up businesses and indeed the middle and lower classes until they can catch their breath, this time is very different though.
How can you call it one way or another in terms of retail spending, when there are so many other variables like the exponential growth of TEMU and things like immigrants sending money to their home country instead of spending their income here ?
Surely in just the immigrant scenario, per capita, incomings and outgoings for the government have an effect?
If the gov get tax income and spend it on job creation, then the private sector invest in housing because that’s the only thing immigrants can’t buy offshore …,and interest rates are not a deterrent cos the landlords pass the hike on and immigrants pay it as they don’t mind sharing rooms and having 12 to a house… surely that makes it look like the economy is running hot?
Inflation is rising as interest rates are not a deterrent as long as immigration drives the market
Don’t we just have the rba and government at cross purposes?
Extremely dangerous and misleading with clear commentary based on their own vested interests.
Absolutely agree with all the comments “activism not analysts”.
In factual, misleading and straight up dangerous narrative they’re trying to push.
@@jvvoid that’s an absolutely ridiculous statement given where inflations at. It’s still sticky, gov spending still, tax cuts and you’re after a rate cut.
So you’re practically saying the economy should be stimulated even if there is a VERY real chance of inflation running riot again which hurts everyone in the long run more than a recession.
Guessing you’re the same as mortgage broker Mark and have your own subjective vested interests. We need a reset.
We are a laughing stock of a nation. Fortunate in resources but extremely dumb. Holes and houses.
A bit extreme, I know, but RBA is such a dictatorship….
Time to stop listening to Kokoulas. Hasn’t been correct on any prediction in the last 3 years. He has no idea what’s going on.
How is the unemployment rate going to go up when the gov keep pumping jobs into the economy through NDIS etc???
@@jvvoid faanks mate you do you ;)
Good show , but sounds like trash on speakers and in the car when they talk over the top of each other.
Good showman and generalist, but not economists.
Public infrastructure projects are also hot. Sounds like you don’t know what the RBA have been saying. Guys, do some research before you come on and jibber jabber.
Just want to say housing investing is not Ethical, its a choice to extorting people for a human need. you take from a limited supply of an essential good and seek to rais its price to gain a personal gain at the expense of others quality of life. so a would-be home owner is homeless with no assets at 50 and 60 because you wanted a tax payer subsidised investment that does nothing good for society or the economy. there is the share market for actual investing.
Im a home owner and if you build a house and add to supply good, but if you take from supply then you not an investor you are an extortionist by definition.
The kouk is historically disingenuous who's own ego is so inflated he refuses to ever admit he's wrong
Christopher Joye has forgotten more about the economy than Kouky will ever know.
Is CJ still predicting that property crash?