I've had success using my own theory of doing the /roll command in game and trying to line up three rolls that are less than 20 in a row then click regrade. Charms help of course but I've had more luck regrading using the /roll command than just clicking regrade and leaving it up to RNGesus. /roll 78 /roll 65 /roll 3 /roll 16 /roll 10 REGRADE! Success!
I stuck it out even though I suck at math and I got the message, well done and perfect presentation. Thanks for not sticking your face in and trying to be a YT personality, that shows self-confidence.
On morpheus server I just regraded my t4 Blackleaf. Here's a nightmare story for you, got it to unique, used a lucky sunpoint and yellow regrade charm which resulted in a downgrade. Did this 27 more times totaling over 14k gold easy before it finally succeeded in getting celestial. Just buy the damn divine.
+Shawn Wos Oh man, that sucks. I saw the average amount of money that it was going to take to try to regrade a weapon to divine myself, so I set that price. I ended up spending 5k on my blackleaf. I know I would have (on average) spent AT LEAST that much regrading. So hopefully I saved myself some headache.
The perception of luck is not a real thing or a actual factor. when it comes to random numbers. The reason people feel that they or a item may be cursed is all simply random. It can be extremely frustrating but none the less. The review of the random system as a statistic is really the only accurate way you can analyze rng. Its all a matter of scale. If you normally only succeed 1 out of a hundred regrades and that's all you ever try then you are simply not regrading enough to reap the full average success rate. granted some people may randomly hit the max number of success sooner than others, but if you do something enough times, with random numbers, you will inevitably average out the success rates. This video nicely summarizes the nature of the rng system behind regrading, and explains that scale is a major factor if you listen to it all.
+Tiomun Legion Yes, it's kind of hard to get across that idea of the law of large numbers. I couldn't think of a way to do it without being way too confusing so I just kind of condensed 1000 examples into one individual (Average Joe).
+Tiomun Legion Assuming there are no real factors affecting the outcome of the way each characters RNG rolls, "luck" would not be a factor. However, you might be able the test the influence or presence of another variable by comparing the roll results or regrade results (or whatever) between two character using a T-test. But that would only reveal if one is "luckier" that the other and not where one character is on the "luckiness" scale.
Really glad to finally see a statistically broken down regrade video! I've been wondering about how much gold I'll realistically need in order to regrade my set to celes before jumping from t1-t4 and you've given it to me! Thanks man :D
really liked this content. Subscribed. Now, I'd like to see a guide to ship regrading E.g Sail on a clipper, propellant etc. I've heard that it's a lot easier to regrade than gear regrading.
+GamersComputer Thanks so much for the sub! Unfortunately I don't play ArcheAge anymore, but I will be playing other games and making videos about them.
I've regraded 5 times in my archeage career. green to arcane is by far the hardest for me. Arcane to Heroic To Unique I have never failed or downgraded. Celes+ I use red regrade and respledant. Out of the 5 times i've regraded with red and resplendant from unique. 5/5 divine.
+Arkenarge My first 3 regrades to divine were so smooth, i didn't even know that regrading could downgrade or fail. Until I was on my 4th and failed green to blue 5 times.
+Arkenarge 4 resplendant with yellow charm all downgraded to arcane...+ 2 tries with normal scroll from unique but with yellow charm, one downgraded, and the other just failed. 5k more wasted at the moment
The events of using scrolls are independent, so you can't really use probability like that. If you wanted to treat the events as dependent, then you must use conditional probability, which would give you the proper probability of getting a success on each attempt. The last attempt would a certain event with a 100% chance of happening (there is no such thing has a probability over 100%). The moment that you started to treat downgrading as two different "events", when they are results of the same event, things went from bad to impossible. But I'll give you points for effort.
Nice theory, man. The reality though is: sometimes you could regrade from Grand to Celestial without having a single downgrade in between and without using a single charm (worked for me once)... and sometimes you might be regrading MANY times from Unique to Celestial and fail over and over and over again (basically what you said in the end). So while statistics help to understand the chances, the reality will most likely look different - and you are sort-of forced to use a yellow or red charm if you want to have at least a tiny chance to proc from Unique to Divine (yes - you may use just the resplendent scroll, but it's very likely it won't proc to Divine or it won't proc at all). And just so you know: my whole armor (and accessories) as well as some of the weapons are celestial. My main weapon is divine and my spare T4 staff was divine when I tried using a superior yellow charm + resplendent weapon regrade scroll to get it to something higher. The result was a major failure and 49 Sunlight Archeum Crystals. It was the only divine item I tried regrading, but I broke about 5 celestial items trying to regrade (with yellow, red or no charm - all of them went down the ***** except that T4 staff regraded from celestial to divine on my 5th try and using NO charm).
+Igor Dasunddas Yeah. You know, it's all a bit too RNG if you ask me. I'd rather have it be like an experience thing where you get a random amount of experience toward your next grade, but at least you are always progressing.
I know this is off topic, you put in the staff you show the 3% magic skill damage increase lunafrost. I would like to be sure about this, does the +3% increase apply to your spells or does it go to your magic damage stat in your character profile? Very good guide btw, I needed something like this because I just started regrading my stuff! :)
Oh ok thanks, I assume that's still the BiS in a Scepter for a daggerspell, right? So basically if a skills says "it does +500% your magic damage" if I have this 3% lunafrost equipped it instead does, +515%, right? Faddler EDIT: The one you can put on a 1h is the +2% one so yeah, the question is the same, just the math is different -> 510%
+MindereakIT Yeah, it's BiS for magic weapons. The way you explained it is exactly how it works as well. If you want to see it, you can simply remove your cloth armor buff, which gives 5% magic damage, and then replace it and see the scaling difference in your abilities.
I went yesterday with 1 fail from green to unique. then failed upgrading with red charm and better scroll while hoping to get divine. Now im saving money for next red charm and better scroll.
HOLY Crapballs this is awesome and very detailed, good work on the numbers and even more so with the explanation. I'm a poor bastard and haven't even played the regrade game cept when I've won them through events but will the theory you detail if I ever get enough gold and stop changing specs :P
As far as the math goes, this works fine for 1 item upgraded, but for several items upgraded, you'd have to figure in the accumulated downgrade chance which was otherwise avoided due to successful upgrades...meaning you can be sure on the average to pay more for upgrading multiple items than for just doing one, assuming average Joe's super power. FWIIW.
+Kevin N Weinhold The idea that Joe is making the regrade on his 'final' try is an attempt to account for those downgrade/failure chances. Basically what I'm doing in this model is having all the likely fails happen *before* a success, instead of the success happening somewhere in the middle. So, you could say that all of those fails that happen before a success during each run are a result of the previous attempts success.
Could you please place those spreadsheets mentioned in the video somewhere available for the public? As prices of regrade scrools and charms vary with time and server, not to mention different regrade fees, you dont know how to regrade unless you re-crunch the numbers for your individual case.
i got a belt of mine to Divine, no charms all the way through, but it did take me 3 resplendent, they didnt reset only failed and stayed unique (used loyalty). I then got my jerkin to Unique, used a green and blue charm but didnt use a charm unique to divine with 1 resplendant, and what happens? RESETS TO ARCANE ON THE 1ST TRY. it was really disappointing because it is T1 obsidian and i could've gotten it to ominous, i was happy later as we got to Kill Morpheus on Growlgate and i finally progressed in my dream ring quest after like 2-3 months
Oh btw I re watched this video, is there anyway you can provide a spreadsheet i can save to google docs so I can edit the prices of charms/regrade scrolls to see if it's worth regrading an item to buying it at that grade like celestial if it's cheaper. It would help out a ton :D
+krazypunk1018 Well, I know this is a bit late but maybe it'll be useful. Here is what I was using at the time. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cqpvwN546EJ2YJY8Bx6gYktBC6ukPwrzyKDKJDeZY4E/edit#gid=522567957
+Spumonii Yeah, that sucks. It happens sometimes. I like to think of it like... if I use up all my bad luck at first, then I'll have better luck in the future. I know it doesn't work like that, but it's nice to think, haha.
Great video, random question. Were you the one that did the reddit post talking about the same thing? Also I want an epic weapon, can you do a simulation if its better to use charm or no charm at celestial?
+krazypunk1018 No, I don't post on reddit. I'm sure many people have come to this same conclusion, though. As for your other question; it becomes really complicated at celestial and above because the rules change. You no longer have a chance to stay the same, it either succeeds, downgrades, or breaks. Furthermore, adding a resplendent splits the chance of success between double-upgrading and a single upgrade. So, I'll do my best to give you a calculation using the same model I talked about in the video, but please please don't take what I'm about to say as absolute fact. It would be very easy for me to overlook something at this point. Anyway, here we go: If you have a celestial weapon and want to double proc it to epic, we need to take into consideration the prices of everything involved. I'll use the prices of items on my server. Superior Reds are 680g, Resplendent weapon regrades are 350g, Getting an item to celestial from arcane costs about 1000g, and getting a weapon from nothing to celestial we'll say is about 1500g. We also need to take into consideration that you may make a Divine weapon and could sell it to negate some of the cost. With no charms, from celestial, a resplendent regrade has a 2% chance to hit epic, so about 1 in 50 attempts. 4 of the remaining 49 attempts would result in a divine weapon, 22-23 in a downgrade, and 22-23 in a destruction. Overall, the entire process could cost around 53,700 gold. Way too expensive, considering you can buy an epic weapon for about 30k. Using superior red regrade charms, from celestial, a resplendent regrade has a 4% chance to hit epic, so about 1 in 25 attempts. 4 of the remaining 24 attempts would result in a divine weapon, 10 in a downgrade, and 10 in a destruction. Overall, the entire process could cost around 30,700 gold. This is much more in line with the costs of epic weapons that you see and by far the better option.. Honestly the best advice I can give you is spending a few months raising the gold to buy an epic weapon from the AH. I wouldn't want to gamble with a large amount of money like that.
Awesome thank you so much for this. I figured much that buying my own would be the better route but I was just really curious how the process works and maybe it is cheaper but who knows lol. Again thank you for doing this and keep up the great work Before you mention making a video about things new players would like to know, maybe try to do a beginner video and an intermediate video after like switching back and forth, idk just an idea :D
+krazypunk1018 That's a good idea. I was planning on making a money-making guide at some point, which would be aimed more at intermediate or advanced players.
just got all heroic on my armor spent 500g if I had to say on scrolls an charms good lucky on the scrolls an charms being in the range on gold to buy scrolls 32g an charms 22g
Good video but I didn't really understand the conclusion... So which charms do I use on which grades? :/ And what if I want to go for divine, not celestial?
+Emil Isenbecker (Dims) basically use blue and greens, but not red or yellow. And, if you want to get to divine, use a red and a resplendent. Though, I don't know anymore, the prices have changed so much and the percentages might have too.
i got legacy gear ticket and all my items are celestial and about 4k gear lvl! didn't spend gold! i focus too much on building my freighter. archeage has a'lot of giveaway and fast flowing economy so its easy to regain lost gold .
Can you make another video please that leads into this video for guys new(er) to the game...theoretically before they would need to regrade? (Coming back after having played about a month at launch...for AA 2.0 @ Morpheus Server.)
+Cameron Aero Unfortunately I don't play the game anymore. Thanks for the sub though. I hope you enjoy my other videos and continue to stay subscribed :)
+Nietshcire Haha, I ALMOST said something like that at the end; but I wouldn't know if it would sound too cheesy or if people would even get the reference.
This is not accurate. In the circumstances provided above, it would require identical trials to provide the ultimate 'average' change to the rate of success. As each item attempt is not considered within a trial setting, the law of averages do not apply here. Essentially, every attempt to roll in Archeage is using a different die. In the experiment above, it would be utilizing the same die, and although that sounds silly, is applicable.
+UserID10T I was looking at it from the perspective of trying things many times over and then boiling the result down into a single run to look at the 'average'. You may be right though. It's a little tricky to think about.
That is very nice calculation and great effort, just somehow in my personal experience average joe super RNG hero, regrading has been far more expensive than this :).
+Sinisa Dodos Yeah, Ive had some really good luck and some really bad luck on it. But it does seem to average out a little more expensive than I calculated.
for me i have made 8 divines items out those 8 only one divine went divine with charm, so far for me best have been noting useing charm for all the times before i allways allways went celestial
i get more success on unique to divine with red charm and lucky point rather that celestial to divine or celestial to epic. plus superior red regrade is expensive for celestial. mostly i do, to get divine, i go unique to divine, if not, try again, if it go celestial, i sell and buy unique and charms again.
+Itame Alves Searching through various forums for one, and another was given to me by a guildmate. Like I said, I can't be 100% sure they are accurate, but after numerous regrade attempts; they seem right.
I got my obsidian greataxe from grand to heroic by some magic then tried again got it to celestial then tried it again it went to divine and i tried one more time and it downgraded to rare and i have never cried so much in my life... ._.) it never left rare after that...
Newkids these days think regrading is RNG hell. What do you kids even know about that Bjorn? 84 Bears 2 Solid Months Rook Wilds (yep wilds on high pop server too) You kids don't even know how much hate RNGebus really has in his heart. NONE OF YOU
Hmm actually it's not 25% 1st try then 50% 2nd try, it resets, it doesnt reduce the 75% of fail, each try is 25% to success, it would be too easy that way.
you explain at the beginning that each try is a try on is own and not a part of the collective, even with average joes luck this goes against what you explained. if it doesn't add up then each time he would have a 75% chance to fail each time (on the last example) let alone the rest of them, i don't mean to be (that guy) but the maths here seems wrong :/
+Jordan Hoskins It's basically taking a ton of tries and looking at it through what the average stream of tries would be. It's a little bit hard to explain, sorry :x
it's all about the LUCK man that's it i got my shield as a divine without any charms zzzz and still trying to get my weapon to divine but every time i failed even with or without charms -.-
well too bad the prices of charms on my server are much higher.... greens are almost 50g per. blues are 80g per and yellows are 289g per so yeah... crazy this is why people quit this game xD
i have got to cele before on my sword now i tried 25 times on that sword it never passed arc then i added up the gold i spent i could of got a 100 times better sword with the gold i tried regrading it with
got my obsidian katana from grand to unique only 2 fails.. then i baught the red regrade charm. and the sun thing and downgrade to rare!!!!!!!! wasted 1400g
Funny as I was regrading a chest and I used 3k gold + with scrolls and and charms to only get it to celest, Also that was only just and to be honest it has been like that for most of the gear for me in the game with regrading. Nice vid and theory tho :) all I can say is RNG Jesus is a bitch.
+Andrew Mathews used 5k gold or more for a 1h club. 6 tries to go up from unique, all with yellow charm, and 4 of those tries with resplendant scroll. 5 of those it went to arcane, 1 just didnt downgrade. Im now in arcane. I'm planning on stopping playing this stupid game
none offence to the theory u have..which is excellent btw..but i much prefer buying item on Ah..yes its expensive but getting gold isn't that hard once u have patron and know what u're doing..cause my RNG luck is so so low..>
+Ichsan Mardani Yeah, that's definitely one way to do it. Knowing how expensive regrading is, is still useful to help you determine how much you should be paying for gear. :)
+DeibosChannel You know, I've had someone tell me sending the item to myself in the mail 'resets' the random values or something to that effect. Who knows!
+Ryan Moo Yeah, unfortunately that happens sometimes. I'm currently regrading my gear to celestial and once I'm finished I'll make a short video as a follow-up to this one. I'll post exactly how much money I spent on each piece and show a little graph that depicts the upgrades and regrades. But, if its reassuring at all, following the method of "only use blue and green charms", both pieces I've taken to celestial so far have cost me less than 1000g each. The biggest temptation I have is wanting to use that yellow charm once it hits unique, but whenever you feel like that, just remember that yellow charms raise the chance you'll succeed by an almost insignificant amount.
ill say how i did my regrade xD im a free player after the 1st update they make on regrading i had all my set unique w8 that was the only time i went all easily with no fail all the parts 1 went divine.... after that i blowed tooons of gold and my last regradeing was after watching youtube since m taking a break and i didnt care the gold i went to ah check prices bought 1 illustrious cloth pants and yolo regrades (with my bf we have the theory that if u dont care u regrade it ! xD) welll i was missing a lot to heroic and then went celestial and i sayd.... YOLOOOO and went epic xD i ended trading those pants for 25 apex gg for me that im a free player now i dont have to worry for a while
Tаke аction guys: use this link ...before thеy runs out !! Links Here!! --- twitter.com/0b9adb9511971a7f7/status/754955443043045376 === !! Guides placed right here coommooonly working. The SECRET To Regrading Geаr In АrcheAge
+Zerdy X Think about it like this: If I flip a coin 100 times, before you even know the results, you can make a guess that the coin will land on heads 50 times, and tails 50 times. Now, you probably won't be exactly right, it might turn out to be something like 45/55. But, the point of this video is to just looking at things from the perspective of what is likely to happen.
+Chin Chulin Tera has even more rng boxes with mounts, skins, MWA, and such ^^ making it p2w aswell. if u r gonna go for +15 on ur tensus or Lucid wep, u need an extra fee of the MWA and Tier 6-7 feedstock which rounds upp to normally 1k MWA ( or is it 2k can't remember) then 2k tier 6-7 feedstock which costs 22-25g each. Thats ONLY to make the weapon being able to +15 then u ahve to actually + 13-14-15, and that's another 200MWA + 2-400 T6-7 feedstock and if you fail once from 13-14 to the higher + you go back down to 12, so in theory Tera is just as much p2w cuz noone that is a casuall likes to spend 1kkk gold in tera to maybe get a +15 wep and therefor buy Lock box key's to get 100-500 MWA easy.
Bro, I never pay in TERA, have 4 characters all full get set for PvP is easy, things get in the dungeons, in addition to gold is easy with the dailies, because you say it's payment, if everything is accessible
Just sayin, and Tera is eay Asf to get geared on, but to make everything on 4 alts ( weapons) +15 is not an easy task for an avarage player. therefor some ppl swipe there aswell. but i come from Eu Tera which isn't as good as Na so i can't rly speak for NA
I've had success using my own theory of doing the /roll command in game and trying to line up three rolls that are less than 20 in a row then click regrade. Charms help of course but I've had more luck regrading using the /roll command than just clicking regrade and leaving it up to RNGesus.
/roll 78
/roll 65
/roll 3
/roll 16
/roll 10
REGRADE!
Success!
+Sanctivus87 The same for honor gems?
+Sanctivus87 why less than 20?
+Null Haven't tried it on honor gems yet.
+Gilles Depauw The lower number the better of course but I think 20 is a good threshold.
Sanctivus87 okay thanks
great information especially for new players. thanks man for taking the time to do this
+shootermanz Glad that you think so! Would you consider subscribing to my channel?
I stuck it out even though I suck at math and I got the message, well done and perfect presentation. Thanks for not sticking your face in and trying to be a YT personality, that shows self-confidence.
+Skymax Haha, well, I think my style has changed a bit. Now I want to be a YT personality ;)
On morpheus server I just regraded my t4 Blackleaf. Here's a nightmare story for you, got it to unique, used a lucky sunpoint and yellow regrade charm which resulted in a downgrade. Did this 27 more times totaling over 14k gold easy before it finally succeeded in getting celestial. Just buy the damn divine.
+Shawn Wos Yes, that's a sound advice. Just gamble if you don't mind losing. Otherwise, let others lose for you.
+Shawn Wos Oh man, that sucks. I saw the average amount of money that it was going to take to try to regrade a weapon to divine myself, so I set that price. I ended up spending 5k on my blackleaf. I know I would have (on average) spent AT LEAST that much regrading. So hopefully I saved myself some headache.
+P. Aederine I agree!
great video man!
+Cryy Thanks! And thanks for the sub.
Great video man
+JASON WIVART Thanks so much! Would you consider subscribing? :)
The perception of luck is not a real thing or a actual factor. when it comes to random numbers. The reason people feel that they or a item may be cursed is all simply random. It can be extremely frustrating but none the less. The review of the random system as a statistic is really the only accurate way you can analyze rng. Its all a matter of scale. If you normally only succeed 1 out of a hundred regrades and that's all you ever try then you are simply not regrading enough to reap the full average success rate. granted some people may randomly hit the max number of success sooner than others, but if you do something enough times, with random numbers, you will inevitably average out the success rates.
This video nicely summarizes the nature of the rng system behind regrading, and explains that scale is a major factor if you listen to it all.
+Tiomun Legion Yes, it's kind of hard to get across that idea of the law of large numbers. I couldn't think of a way to do it without being way too confusing so I just kind of condensed 1000 examples into one individual (Average Joe).
+Kothorix bro you are making awsome videos...keep up good job on archeage videos...subscribed and liked,well done bro!
+Tiomun Legion Yeah when it comes to random numbers the thing that comes to my mind is /roll for gear in wow raids..
+Tiomun Legion Assuming there are no real factors affecting the outcome of the way each characters RNG rolls, "luck" would not be a factor. However, you might be able the test the influence or presence of another variable by comparing the roll results or regrade results (or whatever) between two character using a T-test. But that would only reveal if one is "luckier" that the other and not where one character is on the "luckiness" scale.
+TG wind Thanks so much for the sub!
Really glad to finally see a statistically broken down regrade video! I've been wondering about how much gold I'll realistically need in order to regrade my set to celes before jumping from t1-t4 and you've given it to me! Thanks man :D
+Abolisher Rusgon Not a problem, I like doing this kind of stuff! Would you consider subscribing? :)
Kothorix Already subbed man ;)
Abolisher Rusgon Awesome, thank you!
Kothorix Np!
Great video, helps to understand the mechanics behind the RNG.
really liked this content. Subscribed. Now, I'd like to see a guide to ship regrading E.g Sail on a clipper, propellant etc. I've heard that it's a lot easier to regrade than gear regrading.
+GamersComputer Thanks so much for the sub! Unfortunately I don't play ArcheAge anymore, but I will be playing other games and making videos about them.
Ty for this nice video while waiting in the damn queue for fresh server
The archeage music in the background :D
I've regraded 5 times in my archeage career. green to arcane is by far the hardest for me. Arcane to Heroic To Unique I have never failed or downgraded. Celes+ I use red regrade and respledant. Out of the 5 times i've regraded with red and resplendant from unique. 5/5 divine.
+Arkenarge My first 3 regrades to divine were so smooth, i didn't even know that regrading could downgrade or fail. Until I was on my 4th and failed green to blue 5 times.
+Arkenarge 4 resplendant with yellow charm all downgraded to arcane...+ 2 tries with normal scroll from unique but with yellow charm, one downgraded, and the other just failed. 5k more wasted at the moment
+Arkenarge Lucky!
After watching the whole video, the secret seems to be "have Angry Joe's super power" lol
+Floyd Hunter His name is Average Joe. Who is Angry Joe? ;)
The events of using scrolls are independent, so you can't really use probability like that. If you wanted to treat the events as dependent, then you must use conditional probability, which would give you the proper probability of getting a success on each attempt. The last attempt would a certain event with a 100% chance of happening (there is no such thing has a probability over 100%). The moment that you started to treat downgrading as two different "events", when they are results of the same event, things went from bad to impossible.
But I'll give you points for effort.
Nice theory, man. The reality though is: sometimes you could regrade from Grand to Celestial without having a single downgrade in between and without using a single charm (worked for me once)... and sometimes you might be regrading MANY times from Unique to Celestial and fail over and over and over again (basically what you said in the end).
So while statistics help to understand the chances, the reality will most likely look different - and you are sort-of forced to use a yellow or red charm if you want to have at least a tiny chance to proc from Unique to Divine (yes - you may use just the resplendent scroll, but it's very likely it won't proc to Divine or it won't proc at all).
And just so you know: my whole armor (and accessories) as well as some of the weapons are celestial. My main weapon is divine and my spare T4 staff was divine when I tried using a superior yellow charm + resplendent weapon regrade scroll to get it to something higher. The result was a major failure and 49 Sunlight Archeum Crystals. It was the only divine item I tried regrading, but I broke about 5 celestial items trying to regrade (with yellow, red or no charm - all of them went down the ***** except that T4 staff regraded from celestial to divine on my 5th try and using NO charm).
+Igor Dasunddas Yeah. You know, it's all a bit too RNG if you ask me. I'd rather have it be like an experience thing where you get a random amount of experience toward your next grade, but at least you are always progressing.
I know this is off topic, you put in the staff you show the 3% magic skill damage increase lunafrost. I would like to be sure about this, does the +3% increase apply to your spells or does it go to your magic damage stat in your character profile? Very good guide btw, I needed something like this because I just started regrading my stuff! :)
+MindereakIT It applies to your "Magic Skill Damage" stack which increases the scaling on magic attack-dependent abilities.
Oh ok thanks, I assume that's still the BiS in a Scepter for a daggerspell, right? So basically if a skills says "it does +500% your magic damage" if I have this 3% lunafrost equipped it instead does, +515%, right? Faddler
EDIT: The one you can put on a 1h is the +2% one so yeah, the question is the same, just the math is different -> 510%
+MindereakIT Yeah, it's BiS for magic weapons. The way you explained it is exactly how it works as well. If you want to see it, you can simply remove your cloth armor buff, which gives 5% magic damage, and then replace it and see the scaling difference in your abilities.
Faddler
Ok man, thanks a lot :D
I went yesterday with 1 fail from green to unique. then failed upgrading with red charm and better scroll while hoping to get divine. Now im saving money for next red charm and better scroll.
+n1mb3rs and it didn't downgrade
+n1mb3rs Well, good luck! Though that was all a long time ago.
totally agree, use blue green allways and red for Unique and up
+Daniel Januš Yep!
regraded a divine shirt and pants at the same moment from celes to divine with only regular regrade scroll :P
+Yitsus Floresby (Yitsu) Very nice!
HOLY Crapballs this is awesome and very detailed, good work on the numbers and even more so with the explanation. I'm a poor bastard and haven't even played the regrade game cept when I've won them through events but will the theory you detail if I ever get enough gold and stop changing specs :P
+Matthew Laurence Well, good luck!
So whats the theory that every regrading person you see on youtube that goes for Unique to Divine using only 1 res scroll and no charm?
As far as the math goes, this works fine for 1 item upgraded, but for several items upgraded, you'd have to figure in the accumulated downgrade chance which was otherwise avoided due to successful upgrades...meaning you can be sure on the average to pay more for upgrading multiple items than for just doing one, assuming average Joe's super power. FWIIW.
+Kevin N Weinhold The idea that Joe is making the regrade on his 'final' try is an attempt to account for those downgrade/failure chances. Basically what I'm doing in this model is having all the likely fails happen *before* a success, instead of the success happening somewhere in the middle. So, you could say that all of those fails that happen before a success during each run are a result of the previous attempts success.
Fantastic Video. Thanks for breaking it down.
+Bill Marquardt Thanks! And thanks for the subscribe!
Could you please place those spreadsheets mentioned in the video somewhere available for the public? As prices of regrade scrools and charms vary with time and server, not to mention different regrade fees, you dont know how to regrade unless you re-crunch the numbers for your individual case.
+sznikers Yeah, here is a link to one of the ones I was using. i.imgur.com/UOau1EW.png
I'll put it in the description too. Thanks for asking. :)
Do u make a new Video for 3.0? =)
i got a belt of mine to Divine, no charms all the way through, but it did take me 3 resplendent, they didnt reset only failed and stayed unique (used loyalty).
I then got my jerkin to Unique, used a green and blue charm but didnt use a charm unique to divine with 1 resplendant, and what happens? RESETS TO ARCANE ON THE 1ST TRY.
it was really disappointing because it is T1 obsidian and i could've gotten it to ominous, i was happy later as we got to Kill Morpheus on Growlgate and i finally progressed in my dream ring quest after like 2-3 months
+Firetail the Charizard That sucks about your armor resetting. Congrats on the dream ring, though!
Oh btw I re watched this video, is there anyway you can provide a spreadsheet i can save to google docs so I can edit the prices of charms/regrade scrolls to see if it's worth regrading an item to buying it at that grade like celestial if it's cheaper.
It would help out a ton :D
+krazypunk1018 Well, I know this is a bit late but maybe it'll be useful. Here is what I was using at the time. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cqpvwN546EJ2YJY8Bx6gYktBC6ukPwrzyKDKJDeZY4E/edit#gid=522567957
This great information and all. but im like...13 scrolls into a great club and its still grand (green)....very depressing.
+Spumonii yee cuz grand is not 100%...
+Spumonii yee cuz grand is not 100%...
Osomo Bin Laden yeahh i know....but if you can never get past grand...so frustrating haha
+Spumonii Yeah, that sucks. It happens sometimes. I like to think of it like... if I use up all my bad luck at first, then I'll have better luck in the future. I know it doesn't work like that, but it's nice to think, haha.
+Spumonii Well, once you make it to arcane it won't go back down, so that's good at least.
Great video, random question. Were you the one that did the reddit post talking about the same thing?
Also I want an epic weapon, can you do a simulation if its better to use charm or no charm at celestial?
+krazypunk1018 No, I don't post on reddit. I'm sure many people have come to this same conclusion, though.
As for your other question; it becomes really complicated at celestial and above because the rules change. You no longer have a chance to stay the same, it either succeeds, downgrades, or breaks. Furthermore, adding a resplendent splits the chance of success between double-upgrading and a single upgrade. So, I'll do my best to give you a calculation using the same model I talked about in the video, but please please don't take what I'm about to say as absolute fact. It would be very easy for me to overlook something at this point. Anyway, here we go:
If you have a celestial weapon and want to double proc it to epic, we need to take into consideration the prices of everything involved. I'll use the prices of items on my server. Superior Reds are 680g, Resplendent weapon regrades are 350g, Getting an item to celestial from arcane costs about 1000g, and getting a weapon from nothing to celestial we'll say is about 1500g. We also need to take into consideration that you may make a Divine weapon and could sell it to negate some of the cost.
With no charms, from celestial, a resplendent regrade has a 2% chance to hit epic, so about 1 in 50 attempts. 4 of the remaining 49 attempts would result in a divine weapon, 22-23 in a downgrade, and 22-23 in a destruction. Overall, the entire process could cost around 53,700 gold. Way too expensive, considering you can buy an epic weapon for about 30k.
Using superior red regrade charms, from celestial, a resplendent regrade has a 4% chance to hit epic, so about 1 in 25 attempts. 4 of the remaining 24 attempts would result in a divine weapon, 10 in a downgrade, and 10 in a destruction. Overall, the entire process could cost around 30,700 gold. This is much more in line with the costs of epic weapons that you see and by far the better option..
Honestly the best advice I can give you is spending a few months raising the gold to buy an epic weapon from the AH. I wouldn't want to gamble with a large amount of money like that.
Awesome thank you so much for this. I figured much that buying my own would be the better route but I was just really curious how the process works and maybe it is cheaper but who knows lol. Again thank you for doing this and keep up the great work
Before you mention making a video about things new players would like to know, maybe try to do a beginner video and an intermediate video after like switching back and forth, idk just an idea :D
+krazypunk1018 That's a good idea. I was planning on making a money-making guide at some point, which would be aimed more at intermediate or advanced players.
+Kothorix btw hope you still plan on doing a money making video
2.0 really changed a lot of things, so honestly I don't really know how to make money anymore.
just got all heroic on my armor spent 500g if I had to say on scrolls an charms good lucky on the scrolls an charms being in the range on gold to buy scrolls 32g an charms 22g
+Nero “SaberWolf” Cloud Yeah, the price of that stuff keeps going up.
at least for obsidian weapons, staff for exemple, you could buy the damn celest staff for 1200-1400g..... no RNG envolved...
+Knoxux Arkhaos I would say that is one of the better ways to do it. I wish I would have realized it at the time of making this video.
Good video but I didn't really understand the conclusion... So which charms do I use on which grades? :/
And what if I want to go for divine, not celestial?
+Emil Isenbecker (Dims) basically use blue and greens, but not red or yellow. And, if you want to get to divine, use a red and a resplendent. Though, I don't know anymore, the prices have changed so much and the percentages might have too.
Convincing video from someone who prolly has all the charms on his server.
+Nerd Worker Not sure what that means, but thanks for the comment!
i got legacy gear ticket and all my items are celestial and about 4k gear lvl! didn't spend gold! i focus too much on building my freighter. archeage has a'lot of giveaway and fast flowing economy so its easy to regain lost gold .
Can you make another video please that leads into this video for guys new(er) to the game...theoretically before they would need to regrade? (Coming back after having played about a month at launch...for AA 2.0 @ Morpheus Server.)
+Cameron Aero subbed and liked for the nums/charts.
+Cameron Aero Unfortunately I don't play the game anymore. Thanks for the sub though. I hope you enjoy my other videos and continue to stay subscribed :)
this sounds like the exact opposite of "fun".
+krisissocoollike Well, "fun" is subjective really. Some people find crunching numbers "fun" >.>
Most people I met like that were really fun at parties.
this give me headache >.< feels like back to school siting in class and teacher talking XD
+Terraria Guider Yeah, I tried to make it as short as possible. Still ended up pretty long though :x
but thats just a theory... A STATISTICAL THEORY!
+Nietshcire Haha, I ALMOST said something like that at the end; but I wouldn't know if it would sound too cheesy or if people would even get the reference.
+Kothorix
+Kothorix
I would have ;)
Thanks! the video is very helpful!
+Daniel Feindt Thank you! If you liked this video maybe you would like some of my others. Subscribe if you do :)
jus got my T4 short spear from Rare to Legendary in just 4 tries with no charms
+Paradox 1 congrats man
Great video mate! :)
+TheNecron123 Thanks! Would you consider watching some of my other videos too and maybe subscribing? :)
+Kothorix Just checked out your latest 3 videos and man, I see potential in this channel! 650th sub (;
Thanks so much!
Thanks for the guide.
i just regraded my T3 celes nodachi no charm just a lucky scroll went epic do you know what the chance of that succeeding was?
+Daniel Batt Hah, no, and I don't think I have those charts anymore!
This is not accurate. In the circumstances provided above, it would require identical trials to provide the ultimate 'average' change to the rate of success.
As each item attempt is not considered within a trial setting, the law of averages do not apply here.
Essentially, every attempt to roll in Archeage is using a different die. In the experiment above, it would be utilizing the same die, and although that sounds silly, is applicable.
+UserID10T I was looking at it from the perspective of trying things many times over and then boiling the result down into a single run to look at the 'average'. You may be right though. It's a little tricky to think about.
That is very nice calculation and great effort, just somehow in my personal experience average joe super RNG hero, regrading has been far more expensive than this :).
+Sinisa Dodos Yeah, Ive had some really good luck and some really bad luck on it. But it does seem to average out a little more expensive than I calculated.
Very nice man!
+Hassan High Thanks, and thanks for the sub!
for me i have made 8 divines items out those 8 only one divine went divine with charm, so far for me best have been noting useing charm for all the times before i allways allways went celestial
+Jonas Strömqvist u didnt fail any?
+Jonas Strömqvist Very nice!
i get more success on unique to divine with red charm and lucky point rather that celestial to divine or celestial to epic. plus superior red regrade is expensive for celestial. mostly i do, to get divine, i go unique to divine, if not, try again, if it go celestial, i sell and buy unique and charms again.
+Fale Filsen I was doing that same thing for a while too. Decided to just buy things at the grade I wanted, eventually.
love it!!!! but i fell like i rather spend extra time getting the gold for the charm at the higher lvl.but thats just me
Broke my katana going into epic .. Used a lucky sun point and a gem . ..
+F8 x PUNiiSHER Oh man, sorry to hear it.
does at any point your crafting skill mean anything while regrading?
+Kortak I don't believe so.
Where did u get those sheets?
+Itame Alves Searching through various forums for one, and another was given to me by a guildmate. Like I said, I can't be 100% sure they are accurate, but after numerous regrade attempts; they seem right.
I got my obsidian greataxe from grand to heroic by some magic then tried again got it to celestial then tried it again it went to divine and i tried one more time and it downgraded to rare and i have never cried so much in my life... ._.) it never left rare after that...
+Kyle Garcia Aww! Well, at least it didn't explode!
Always trust in RNGesus in the end :v
+Cosme da S. Leite :D
+Cosme da S. Leite
RNGesus hates everyone si not kind.
Pray to Hircine
+Cosme da S. Leite Seems to end up that way!
+Firetail the Charizard It depends on who you are. Some of my friends get so lucky, and on a consistent basis!
Newkids these days think regrading is RNG hell. What do you kids even know about that Bjorn?
84 Bears
2 Solid Months
Rook Wilds (yep wilds on high pop server too)
You kids don't even know how much hate RNGebus really has in his heart. NONE OF YOU
+Zenn Exile Hahaha. I've heard horror stories.
Kothorix
I did things with Bears in Rookborne that violate international treaties...
Zenn Exile Ahahaha
Hmm actually it's not 25% 1st try then 50% 2nd try, it resets, it doesnt reduce the 75% of fail, each try is 25% to success, it would be too easy that way.
+TrakTv you know nothing, jon snow.
+TrakTv The chances don't literally stack. It's just that there is a chance of it happening a certain way given enough attempts.
you explain at the beginning that each try is a try on is own and not a part of the collective, even with average joes luck this goes against what you explained. if it doesn't add up then each time he would have a 75% chance to fail each time (on the last example) let alone the rest of them, i don't mean to be (that guy) but the maths here seems wrong :/
+Jordan Hoskins It's basically taking a ton of tries and looking at it through what the average stream of tries would be. It's a little bit hard to explain, sorry :x
or just pray to RNGesus and get it from basic to mythic
+Ivald X Haha, I wish!
it's all about the LUCK man that's it i got my shield as a divine without any charms zzzz
and still trying to get my weapon to divine but every time i failed even with or without charms -.-
+DiabLos nMe i mean my sword
+DiabLos nMe Yeah, sometimes that is just the case.
great video!
+GundaniumPilot0104 Thanks! Would you consider subscribing?
thank you very much!
+Gregory Schrupp Your welcome!
you will save a ton of gold that why
+paul turnbull By following the video? :)
no I known about it I watched your vid to see if there was something I was doing wrong and if there was a better and more easy way doing it -Qhota
after 20+ tries to get it from arcane to heoic i can't agree on 30% chance lol, dont make me tell u what happens if i get it to heroic...
+state bljbljblj Yeah, it is pretty terrible sometimes.
well too bad the prices of charms on my server are much higher.... greens are almost 50g per. blues are 80g per and yellows are 289g per so yeah... crazy this is why people quit this game xD
+Far Legendary Yeah, prices went way up even just a bit after I made this video. I'm not exactly sure what the numbers look like now.
i have got to cele before on my sword now i tried 25 times on that sword it never passed arc then i added up the gold i spent i could of got a 100 times better sword with the gold i tried regrading it with
+paul turnbull Yeah, that happens sometimes.
I got my Epic from Celestial on first try :D
+Erry just burn in hell
+Erry wow, very nice, what was it?
Obsidian Katana T3
Erry Very nice! Good luck in the future.
got my obsidian katana from grand to unique only 2 fails.. then i baught the red regrade charm. and the sun thing and downgrade to rare!!!!!!!! wasted 1400g
+Marcus Aploy Yeah, that's unfortunate. I really never use those red charms.
Funny as I was regrading a chest and I used 3k gold + with scrolls and and charms to only get it to celest, Also that was only just and to be honest it has been like that for most of the gear for me in the game with regrading. Nice vid and theory tho :) all I can say is RNG Jesus is a bitch.
+Andrew Mathews used 5k gold or more for a 1h club. 6 tries to go up from unique, all with yellow charm, and 4 of those tries with resplendant scroll. 5 of those it went to arcane, 1 just didnt downgrade. Im now in arcane. I'm planning on stopping playing this stupid game
+Andrew Mathews Indeed he is unkind.
reality and theory are two different things..>
+Ichsan Mardani Yeah, what does it say about my thoughts on RNG that I consider "Average Luck" a super power?
none offence to the theory u have..which is excellent btw..but i much prefer buying item on Ah..yes its expensive but getting gold isn't that hard once u have patron and know what u're doing..cause my RNG luck is so so low..>
+Ichsan Mardani Yeah, that's definitely one way to do it. Knowing how expensive regrading is, is still useful to help you determine how much you should be paying for gear. :)
You're smarter than I am.
+Adam Beauchamp Well, thanks I guess XD Though, I don't know, I could be wrong about a lot of this stuff. It's just my attempt to figure it all out.
make more vids like this , tnx !
+John Doe Thanks! Check out some of my newer videos and subscribe if you like them.
Swearing by it. Repair gear before attempt. Open purses between attempts.
+DeibosChannel You know, I've had someone tell me sending the item to myself in the mail 'resets' the random values or something to that effect. Who knows!
i spent 2k to get an item to rare once
+All0Mighty0Power That sounds terrible. Sorry to hear it XD
all about that RNG-SUS lolololol GOOD VID good vid
+Desiree Alexander Thanks! And thanks for the sub.
+Kothorix np hahaha BTW def use this every day!!!! make one for the ship regrades now ;)
Desiree Alexander I would if I still played the game. I don't anymore though.
+Kothorix dammit to fkn hell lolol fine... I'll make my own den :'(
Desiree Alexander Haha, sorry. Good luck with your video!
You don't.
i found a way cheaper way just buy a better item on the AH
+paul turnbull I would actually agree with that.
Do you still play The game?
You mean the one you just lost?
а по-русски можно?( Я понимаю англ., но такой - нет
+Олег Лаптев Are you talking about on the russian servers?
2100 g and its arcane xD
+Ryan Moo Yeah, unfortunately that happens sometimes. I'm currently regrading my gear to celestial and once I'm finished I'll make a short video as a follow-up to this one. I'll post exactly how much money I spent on each piece and show a little graph that depicts the upgrades and regrades. But, if its reassuring at all, following the method of "only use blue and green charms", both pieces I've taken to celestial so far have cost me less than 1000g each. The biggest temptation I have is wanting to use that yellow charm once it hits unique, but whenever you feel like that, just remember that yellow charms raise the chance you'll succeed by an almost insignificant amount.
+Ryan Moo 5k+ and its arcane :D
+Ryan Moo Hey ryan orochimaru here xD
+Shawn Wos do you still play archage? should come join us on morpheus
ill say how i did my regrade xD im a free player after the 1st update they make on regrading i had all my set unique w8 that was the only time i went all easily with no fail all the parts 1 went divine.... after that i blowed tooons of gold and my last regradeing was after watching youtube since m taking a break and i didnt care the gold i went to ah check prices bought 1 illustrious cloth pants and yolo regrades (with my bf we have the theory that if u dont care u regrade it ! xD) welll i was missing a lot to heroic and then went celestial and i sayd.... YOLOOOO and went epic xD i ended trading those pants for 25 apex gg for me that im a free player now i dont have to worry for a while
+Vicky MakeUp Haha, very nice! I'm not much of a gambler so I have a hard time "yolo"ing it.
Kothorix im a lover of gamble ahahah that is a problem sometimes more being f2p
i broke my epic xD
Oh noooo
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You know that your math is wrong right?
Nvm I missed that super power thing
But still percentages don't work like that.
+Zerdy X He knows, he literally said that in the beginning.
Patricio yeah but, it make the whole video pointless
+Zerdy X Think about it like this: If I flip a coin 100 times, before you even know the results, you can make a guess that the coin will land on heads 50 times, and tails 50 times. Now, you probably won't be exactly right, it might turn out to be something like 45/55. But, the point of this video is to just looking at things from the perspective of what is likely to happen.
TERA is the best free to play, archeage is p2w
+Chin Chulin Tera has even more rng boxes with mounts, skins, MWA, and such ^^ making it p2w aswell. if u r gonna go for +15 on ur tensus or Lucid wep, u need an extra fee of the MWA and Tier 6-7 feedstock which rounds upp to normally 1k MWA ( or is it 2k can't remember) then 2k tier 6-7 feedstock which costs 22-25g each. Thats ONLY to make the weapon being able to +15 then u ahve to actually + 13-14-15, and that's another 200MWA + 2-400 T6-7 feedstock and if you fail once from 13-14 to the higher + you go back down to 12, so in theory Tera is just as much p2w cuz noone that is a casuall likes to spend 1kkk gold in tera to maybe get a +15 wep and therefor buy Lock box key's to get 100-500 MWA easy.
Bro, I never pay in TERA, have 4 characters all full get set for PvP is easy, things get in the dungeons, in addition to gold is easy with the dailies, because you say it's payment, if everything is accessible
Just sayin, and Tera is eay Asf to get geared on, but to make everything on 4 alts ( weapons) +15 is not an easy task for an avarage player. therefor some ppl swipe there aswell. but i come from Eu Tera which isn't as good as Na so i can't rly speak for NA
oh ok, maybe that's I'm playing in NA
+Chin Chulin I didn't really like the structure of TERA too much. I like the sandboxy feel of games like ArcheAge
to bad this game is dead