I read this book this weekend, 9 years after it was published. Every prediction these guys made was wrong. They got too cocky with their timing and made over confident statements that expected their scenario would play out linearly from 2010 onwards. They said that there is a 100% chance the soverign bond bull market would burst by 2019 and we would have 10% rates or so on the 10 year by now... Meanwhile the only thing that made you money in recent times is going long long duration bonds. I agree with their long term thesis but they got WAY too cocky with their timing.
Not true. He was right on. He starts out by saying in 2010 there was NOT going to be any v-shaped recovery -- that this time was different. And he couldn't have been more right. It was the most difficult slog out of recession since the Great Recession, and the only way we managed that was by massively increasing the debt cycle for another round, BUT we did also deleverage from 2010 to about 2012 on a personal level. So, there was a fair amount of deleveraging personally, but a huge ramp up of government debt to try to blow one more bubble, and now here we are with another bubble bursting.
A person asked him the first question and said when do you think we will have the next recession - His response "first quarter of next year" meaning 2011 I assume since this was posted in 2010. He was wrong, no recession Another thing - Inflation is just as bad as a depression because 1. all savings are wiped away 2. Value of the dollar is destroyed 3. Real wages fall as compared to hours worked
When you begin to realize jobs as a building base for an economy has lost it's place and will continue to do so (growing population + advancements in technology = less jobs for people) you start to see all of the analysis like this one, while important to understand will mean nothing when people will not have the means to "earn" the right to live.
The tax multiplier effect is bogus. It is not based on historical data. It is based on specific data with narrow correlation in the data. The data may be right but the conclusion is bad. He is correct about leverage in consumer, banking and investment circles. We need to make massive changes in our system. He is right about that.
No John we will not muddle through because this time it's not the 70s. Oil was expensive then temporarily and only reason that recession ended was because oil became cheap again. Now we are hitting peak and a declining curve and ever higher energy costs. I don't get it how so many economists fail to see the true reason behind what we are facing now....
Here's an idea... Countries with huge debt problems have their banks become international, lending to developing countries. There's a shit ton of poor people in developing countries with good ideas, and they all probably have or could get access to a cell phone. International lending puts entrepreneurship into developing countries, and their work pays their debt, which in turn pays ours. Would need a whole new category of regulations...
Tan, You ask why a topic on debt is on the Singularity Institute website. It is part of the sustainability issue. Debt, like fossil fuels, minerals and water, is a finite resource and its misuse can lead to catastrophic consequences worse than any natural disaster. If history has shown anything it is that nations that save prosper and those that live beyond their means fail when investor confidence fades. Massive personal and sovereign debt is not, IMHO, the pathway to prosperity.
See here a Monetarist falling in the same trap. Money isn't a product or service, it is at best a promise to provide such. So, Gross Domestic Productivity shouldn't contain financial "products".
we r not just raising the minimum wage to $115k. we r also lowering the top pay from hundreds of millions and billions to $460k. all we r doing is redistributing EXISTING income. the amount we r increasing the minimum wage is exactly equal to the amount we r lowering the maximum wage. so there is no inflation. the net effect is prices on average remain the same. If u have a $14.5 trillion economy and you only pay out $14.5 trillion in income, it is mathematically impossible to have inflation
In a recent conference on youtube "X Prize Chairman: Will Robots Do Jobs of the Future? " Peter Diamandis say "maybe people don't have jobs." concerning technology improving at an exponential rate and displacing people from jobs. How will this sort of massive disruption in efficiency factor into how our economy is organized?
@ISeeThemNow Japan did not get the types of inflation that would be expected of such economic factors. It would have been many orders of magnitude higher.
30 mins in, and it's clear that he's completely ignoring HOW governments spend money matters. Either allowing a Fed to pump the balance sheets of wealthy elites, stimulating stock buybacks, and inequality, VS delivering healthcare to all citizenry, making structural investments in innovation, and giving families with kids $600/mo to spend more in groceries, highlights that inflation is just not in the hands of the FED. Inflation is a government policy choice, not one that the FED can inspire alone by trying to get an over-satiated private elite to lend.
That is weird that we can "grow" forever, I would have assumed that if the Earth is only 6378 km in radius that would present a problem to expand forever... Perhaps I missed the lecture in magic this guy did previously for sure.
Economics is asking how to change a tire on the car as it rolls down the road. In real US silver money fro 1963 the Dow is $480, not $12,000. Gasoline is 14 cents per gallon, and real wages for nurses, teachers, cops is $1.40 per hour not $35. It's all currency debasement caused by counterfeit money. If the counterfeiting stops the Dow goes to $480, wages go to $1.40 per hour, and we default on all debt. Jobs, government, and banks evaporate. Protect yourself.
In an attempt to address more of the Pre-Singularity Economics, I've started to unite some of the economic & business observations across multiple fronts in this article: Technology Acceleration Economics 101 (Google please, I cannot paste links here)
GDP Needs to increase in order to pay the debts created via debasement and QE, how is US GDP ever going to increase enough to be able to recap $16 Trillion dollars through taxation???? "If no one wants to come to the dance there is no dancing" - there has been no dancing for 4 years so far!!!!
@me4areazon "if everyone made 1500000 dollars a year bread would cost $1000" i never said we should do that i said we should limit differences in income by law to just what is necessary for it to be an effective incentive. if u limit top earners to 4x more than bottom earners, that amounts to paying everyone from $115k to $460k based on the US economy in 2010
This is nonsense. Reinhart and Rogoff was never peer reviewed until a grad student found out they made simple errors in their spreadsheets. Innovation and efficient markets made efficient by whatever means necessary promotes economic growth.
The speaker misses a very important step in the beginning of his lecture. Government steps in during a time of recession because a recession happens when the private sector and the consumer as well as the investment class are not increasing their output. If no one wants to come to the dance there is no dancing. If no one dances we are all doomed. Letting a recession become a depression will fulfill the worst case scenario.
@me4areazon "isn't capitalism the ultimate form of democracy voting with dollars" it would be if everyone had an equal amount of votes. but when 1 person has 50,000 times more votes than another that is no longer democratic! since capitalism maximizes the inequality in dollar votes you have, it is the opposite of democracy since democracy is equal political power and since ur income determines ur political power, a system where someone has 50,000 times the income of another is not democratic
Mark, Get serious. You omitted the unfunded liabilities now totalling between 100 and 200 trillion depending on who is counting. For the first time in history we have a situation where productivity is rising while wages are declining. This is directly due to automation, the ultimate effect of which will shrink the workforce and thus taxes as fewer folks work "real" jobs.
Not a good premise. why... there are especially at this time Many Private investment opportunity not enough private investors now since they mostly took it in the Shorts for the last 3 years. Tada.!!!! And are terrified of their own shadows now.
This guy believes that we get jobs from investments? Really? When in history did that ever happen? We get jobs growth from expansion in market demand! This guy is nuts.
What? This is from 2 years ago and what he said would happen... has happened. Please explain how you know more than he and why anyone should listen to you instead of him. If you are going to call him out the least you can do is give us a reason to believe anything you say.
Capitalism should be replaced with DEMOCRACY That means all business should be publicly financed and income is allocated according to a national plan where differences are limited to only what is necessary to get people to do hard work Limiting inequality would enable us to pay every worker from $115,000 to $460,000 per year for working JUST 20 HOURS per week It will make everyone wealthy and eliminate nearly every social problem we have email me if u want more info and sources on this idea
debt means poor people have too little income to spend so they borrow it from rich people who save because they have too much income to spend the systemic problem is income inequality. the capitalist system of matching consumers with producers is moronic because it always leads to concentration of wealth and inequality. capitalism should be replaced with democracy where everyone has equal political AND economic power
@kscrasefrncs You need to re-watch the video please. He is basing his predictions off the study done that he references at the start of the speech. The "theory" you are looking for is talked about. It was a study done by the pair of economist that showed these events to be truism's. "It's just the way things are" .... i.e, The sky is blue, up is up and debt in excess of 90% of GDP kills economies.
He's horrible. Very confidently leading one to a conclusion that is mush. Over and over again, very predictable and frustrating. You want to like him but he never delivers.
This guy does not know what the heck he is talking about. He is a snake oil salesman who is regurgitating in a poor way what he thinks he understood. It is really bad. He has a big terrible mess in his head.
I read this book this weekend, 9 years after it was published. Every prediction these guys made was wrong.
They got too cocky with their timing and made over confident statements that expected their scenario would play out linearly from 2010 onwards. They said that there is a 100% chance the soverign bond bull market would burst by 2019 and we would have 10% rates or so on the 10 year by now... Meanwhile the only thing that made you money in recent times is going long long duration bonds.
I agree with their long term thesis but they got WAY too cocky with their timing.
I haven’t watched the video. Is he still wrong?
Here it is 2013 and still not a single one of his predictions have come to pass. Kensian ftw.
Mike Magee Here it is, July 2020. 😳
Really good talk. You can watch it lots of times and get more.
well its been 9 years since the presentation and business cycle is only ending now
Not true. He was right on. He starts out by saying in 2010 there was NOT going to be any v-shaped recovery -- that this time was different. And he couldn't have been more right. It was the most difficult slog out of recession since the Great Recession, and the only way we managed that was by massively increasing the debt cycle for another round, BUT we did also deleverage from 2010 to about 2012 on a personal level. So, there was a fair amount of deleveraging personally, but a huge ramp up of government debt to try to blow one more bubble, and now here we are with another bubble bursting.
Mauldins rant on GlassStegal is right on!!!
A person asked him the first question and said when do you think we will have the next recession - His response "first quarter of next year" meaning 2011 I assume since this was posted in 2010. He was wrong, no recession Another thing - Inflation is just as bad as a depression because 1. all savings are wiped away 2. Value of the dollar is destroyed 3. Real wages fall as compared to hours worked
When you begin to realize jobs as a building base for an economy has lost it's place and will continue to do so (growing population + advancements in technology = less jobs for people) you start to see all of the analysis like this one, while important to understand will mean nothing when people will not have the means to "earn" the right to live.
The tax multiplier effect is bogus. It is not based on historical data. It is based on specific data with narrow correlation in the data. The data may be right but the conclusion is bad. He is correct about leverage in consumer, banking and investment circles. We need to make massive changes in our system. He is right about that.
No John we will not muddle through because this time it's not the 70s. Oil was expensive then temporarily and only reason that recession ended was because oil became cheap again.
Now we are hitting peak and a declining curve and ever higher energy costs. I don't get it how so many economists fail to see the true reason behind what we are facing now....
Here's an idea... Countries with huge debt problems have their banks become international, lending to developing countries.
There's a shit ton of poor people in developing countries with good ideas, and they all probably have or could get access to a cell phone. International lending puts entrepreneurship into developing countries, and their work pays their debt, which in turn pays ours.
Would need a whole new category of regulations...
Listening to this now in 2023 makes me laugh (sadly) how much worse things turned out…
Tan, You ask why a topic on debt is on the Singularity Institute website. It is part of the sustainability issue. Debt, like fossil fuels, minerals and water, is a finite resource and its misuse can lead to catastrophic consequences worse than any natural disaster.
If history has shown anything it is that nations that save prosper and those that live beyond their means fail when investor confidence fades. Massive personal and sovereign debt is not, IMHO, the pathway to prosperity.
See here a Monetarist falling in the same trap.
Money isn't a product or service, it is at best a promise to provide such.
So, Gross Domestic Productivity shouldn't contain financial "products".
we r not just raising the minimum wage to $115k. we r also lowering the top pay from hundreds of millions and billions to $460k. all we r doing is redistributing EXISTING income. the amount we r increasing the minimum wage is exactly equal to the amount we r lowering the maximum wage.
so there is no inflation. the net effect is prices on average remain the same. If u have a $14.5 trillion economy and you only pay out $14.5 trillion in income, it is mathematically impossible to have inflation
In a recent conference on youtube "X Prize Chairman: Will Robots Do Jobs of the Future? " Peter Diamandis say "maybe people don't have jobs." concerning technology improving at an exponential rate and displacing people from jobs. How will this sort of massive disruption in efficiency factor into how our economy is organized?
@ISeeThemNow
Japan did not get the types of inflation that would be expected of such economic factors.
It would have been many orders of magnitude higher.
30 mins in, and it's clear that he's completely ignoring HOW governments spend money matters. Either allowing a Fed to pump the balance sheets of wealthy elites, stimulating stock buybacks, and inequality, VS delivering healthcare to all citizenry, making structural investments in innovation, and giving families with kids $600/mo to spend more in groceries, highlights that inflation is just not in the hands of the FED. Inflation is a government policy choice, not one that the FED can inspire alone by trying to get an over-satiated private elite to lend.
That is weird that we can "grow" forever, I would have assumed that if the Earth is only 6378 km in radius that would present a problem to expand forever...
Perhaps I missed the lecture in magic this guy did previously for sure.
Economics is asking how to change a tire on the car as it rolls down the road. In real US silver money fro 1963 the Dow is $480, not $12,000. Gasoline is 14 cents per gallon, and real wages for nurses, teachers, cops is $1.40 per hour not $35. It's all currency debasement caused by counterfeit money. If the counterfeiting stops the Dow goes to $480, wages go to $1.40 per hour, and we default on all debt. Jobs, government, and banks evaporate. Protect yourself.
In an attempt to address more of the Pre-Singularity Economics, I've started to unite some of the economic & business observations across multiple fronts in this article:
Technology Acceleration Economics 101 (Google please, I cannot paste links here)
And we need an economist to tell use we can't borrow ourselves out of a debt crisis.....
GDP Needs to increase in order to pay the debts created via debasement and QE, how is US GDP ever going to increase enough to be able to recap $16 Trillion dollars through taxation????
"If no one wants to come to the dance there is no dancing" - there has been no dancing for 4 years so far!!!!
@me4areazon "if everyone made 1500000 dollars a year bread would cost $1000"
i never said we should do that
i said we should limit differences in income by law to just what is necessary for it to be an effective incentive. if u limit top earners to 4x more than bottom earners, that amounts to paying everyone from $115k to $460k based on the US economy in 2010
This is nonsense. Reinhart and Rogoff was never peer reviewed until a grad student found out they made simple errors in their spreadsheets.
Innovation and efficient markets made efficient by whatever means necessary promotes economic growth.
If only Americans had a problem over-consuming this type of information instead of over-consuming cheap frozen pizza and ice cream from Wal-Mart.
The speaker misses a very important step in the beginning of his lecture. Government steps in during a time of recession because a recession happens when the private sector and the consumer as well as the investment class are not increasing their output. If no one wants to come to the dance there is no dancing. If no one dances we are all doomed. Letting a recession become a depression will fulfill the worst case scenario.
STOP babeling away nobody's interested in your drivel!
@me4areazon "isn't capitalism the ultimate form of democracy voting with dollars"
it would be if everyone had an equal amount of votes. but when 1 person has 50,000 times more votes than another that is no longer democratic! since capitalism maximizes the inequality in dollar votes you have, it is the opposite of democracy
since democracy is equal political power and since ur income determines ur political power, a system where someone has 50,000 times the income of another is not democratic
why is this topic on singularity university ?
@sow4now
isn't that the definition of an economist?
he also has to sell a book....
Mark, Get serious. You omitted the unfunded liabilities now totalling between 100 and 200 trillion depending on who is counting. For the first time in history we have a situation where productivity is rising while wages are declining. This is directly due to automation, the ultimate effect of which will shrink the workforce and thus taxes as fewer folks work "real" jobs.
Not a good premise. why... there are especially at this time Many Private investment opportunity not enough private investors now since they mostly took it in the Shorts for the last 3 years. Tada.!!!! And are terrified of their own shadows now.
This guy believes that we get jobs from investments? Really? When in history did that ever happen? We get jobs growth from expansion in market demand! This guy is nuts.
Reinhart-Rogoff is the man's bible. Or it was?
are you saying i have a problem?
yep, this and other guys were thouroughfully disproven by history since 2010.
SURE GENIOUS SURE; LOL
What? This is from 2 years ago and what he said would happen... has happened. Please explain how you know more than he and why anyone should listen to you instead of him. If you are going to call him out the least you can do is give us a reason to believe anything you say.
Capitalism should be replaced with DEMOCRACY
That means all business should be publicly financed and income is allocated according to a national plan where differences are limited to only what is necessary to get people to do hard work
Limiting inequality would enable us to pay every worker from $115,000 to $460,000 per year for working JUST 20 HOURS per week
It will make everyone wealthy and eliminate nearly every social problem we have
email me if u want more info and sources on this idea
debt means poor people have too little income to spend so they borrow it from rich people who save because they have too much income to spend
the systemic problem is income inequality.
the capitalist system of matching consumers with producers is moronic because it always leads to concentration of wealth and inequality.
capitalism should be replaced with democracy where everyone has equal political AND economic power
@kscrasefrncs You need to re-watch the video please. He is basing his predictions off the study done that he references at the start of the speech. The "theory" you are looking for is talked about. It was a study done by the pair of economist that showed these events to be truism's. "It's just the way things are" .... i.e, The sky is blue, up is up and debt in excess of 90% of GDP kills economies.
@xKlondikex LOL now I'm at 56 minutes he basically just said that, I had the exact idea 14 minutes in...
Brains; I has them.
LOL @ 50:08 through 50:30 . Poor Greeks.
I was thinking of getting a face lift...not anymore.
This man looks like what a 1000 year old person will look like after Aubrey de Grey's rejuvenation therapies
This is me in the year 3011
He's horrible. Very confidently leading one to a conclusion that is mush. Over and over again, very predictable and frustrating. You want to like him but he never delivers.
This guy does not know what the heck he is talking about. He is a snake oil salesman who is regurgitating in a poor way what he thinks he understood. It is really bad. He has a big terrible mess in his head.