This guy is #1 for understanding commodities, especially oil. His team has more economic details than Doomberg's group, which is heavy on engineering details.
This guy seems to wrap his head around concepts in a more comprehensive manner than most talking heads do. It's like an immersion in the actualities of economic mechanics.
Adam, that’s a dang legit 5 alarm CRE fire right there on that desk. Seriously, make a gameplan for the workday. 5 minutes before going home to clean up, put out the cigarettes and turn off the lights…
Energy doesn't track the 'everything bubble' -- I saw that the last market pullback. It's essential just for this alone. And Interesting point about higher efficiency increasing demand.
The cost of a chunk of uranium to fuel a reactor is miniscule to the cost to run the reactor. They will buy it at any price as it is essential. Cost is not the issue.
Thanks for watching Edward. I have read that book, very fascinating and quite concerning. I will definitely try to get David on at some point, good suggestion.
"Energy Demand is Massively Misunderstood" - "No matter how highly mechanised and self-powered, fossil fuels extraction requires a number of people - as if the process is executed by hands using buckets and ropes - by physics". Today, this number is 8 billion people - working flat out 24/7 - strong. Adam Rozencwajg, you and I are among those, too. Therefore, what's called 'demand' is itself an illusion, in fact. Jevons missed out that Watt's improved steam engine has taken no less than 60 years until matured and commercialised - he overlooked the total energy put into the process, technologically and socially - to wrongly conclude that Watt's engine is 'efficient' - ha ha ha It took Toyota no less than 80 years until improved on Ford's Model T - as without the transistor, for instance, the Prius couldn't come to existence. The Prius is not a product of its assembly line - but rather the total energy burned in the society since Ford, at the latest - and therefore - the Prius is no 'efficient' at all, actually. What looks 'efficient' is a product of all the inefficiencies that came before it - and therefore - never efficient - as most what has come before it - is still inefficient - ha ha ha Likewise, there is no what's called 'demand' as - Finite fossil fuels are dangerously hypnotic to humans, their consciousness, reasoning and mental capacity. Humans were not ready morally, ethically and intellectually to start the mass extraction of fossil fuels with the advent of the steam engine 300 years ago. The Magna Carta requires today overhauling - adding to it the right for humans to understand what Energy really is - before any other commandment; “In any system of energy, Control is what consumes energy the most. No energy store holds enough energy to extract an amount of energy equal to the total energy it stores. No system of energy can deliver sum useful energy in excess of the total energy put into constructing it. This universal truth applies to all systems. Energy, like time, flows from past to future” (2017).
Does anyone one know how much uranium governments have stockpiled? Or how much uranium could be recycled from the waste that is stockpiled at numerous plants?
I've worked in the industry for close to 25 years, the last 8 years have been terrible and loads of people I know have moved on or retired. Having seen it from the inside I agree entirely with Adam. I like Doomberg but he seem to have really changed some of his opinions in the last 2 years. I don't think we'll necessarily will see a giant boom (explosion in prices although possible due to geopolitics) suddenly, I think this will be more similar to the post 2008/9 crash and some others and it will be a long steady bull run until the deep water wells start coming online in 4-5 years time. The main thing is that money needs to start moving to the sector, it's too enamored with ridiculous companies that are way over priced like the AI/tech stocks and I personally feel we'll see a big rotation to the cheap stocks like oil/gas.
@@garryw-vc6qm I wouldn't be remotely surprised to see something like that especially if there is a bigger geopolitical even because the speculators would likely pile in and make crude look like NVIDIA stock. I think Doomberg might be missing something, yes there is a lot of oil available but the offshore and especially deep water projects take years before they come online, many OPEC countries have declining production and Saudi would be stupid to ramp up production because it would lower the price at a time when they can make up for the low prices since 2015. I think we're going to see US production start falling in the next few months and since the SPR was already drained and the DUCs have been burned through there's no buffer. Hopefully drilling activity will pick up in the next few months because it's been slim pickings for work and that's with $75 crude...a very strange situation lol.
look. talking about marcellus gas supply and saying that "people say it is contrained by pipelines but we are not so sure" is really dumb. We know what the pipeline capacity is. He is also clearly not aware of the enormous amount of Utica gas under the Marcellus in South West Pennsylvania and NW West Virginia which is hardly tapped because the Marcellus is currently more economic and the Utica needs some more infrastructure upgrades because it is much higher pressure. However that enormous resource can sustain the natural gas supply from Appalachia for a long long time ....at least for many decades at todays takeaway capacity ..... there is also enormous untapped natural gas resource still in the rockies .... might need the right natural gas price but it is there ....
These people have no idea what's happening. Tenerife, best clima of the world, months 7º+ average and no one drop of rain. It's really scary. If this is the temperature curve we are all dead in 50 years. I hope not, I don't want to die in a oven.
A must listen interview.
Glad you found it valuable!
This guy is #1 for understanding commodities, especially oil. His team has more economic details than Doomberg's group, which is heavy on engineering details.
I like how Leighs desk in the background is so well organized.
Shows that actual work is getting done
I didn't even notice that until you mentioned it 😂
Make me laugh. 🤣
Adam is the best guest. Must have him on regularly!
Adam clearly knows his stuff.
Respect from over here in the UK. 👍
Thanks for watching and Adam is one of my favorite analysts.
how do you know he knows his stuff ? because he sounds believable ? and that is enough for you ?
This guy seems to wrap his head around concepts in a more comprehensive manner than most talking heads do. It's like an immersion in the actualities of economic mechanics.
Bravo! I'm a subscriber and this is the best video I've seen on this channel. Adam is very knowledgeable, sensible, organized and eloquent. Thank you!
Adam, that’s a dang legit 5 alarm CRE fire right there on that desk. Seriously, make a gameplan for the workday. 5 minutes before going home to clean up, put out the cigarettes and turn off the lights…
Energy doesn't track the 'everything bubble' -- I saw that the last market pullback. It's essential just for this alone. And Interesting point about higher efficiency increasing demand.
The cost of a chunk of uranium to fuel a reactor is miniscule to the cost to run the reactor.
They will buy it at any price as it is essential.
Cost is not the issue.
great interview Jesse and Adam .. thanks from Australia.. go GCnewc.
HE HAS BEEN SPOT ON FOR THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS.
It has been extremely frustrating to be energy investor the last couple of years.
Excellent info. 💯👍
Glad it was helpful!
Adam is fantastic and lays it out for all to see and understand.
Agreed, he gave a masterclass in this interview.
Awesome stuff!!
Glad you think so!
Brilliant work, thx for sharing it!
Excellent points , thank you for posting this interview !
EXR small Austalian company well placed in Mongolia and Queensland to do very well in the Gas sector. .
How can China be short if they have somewhere between 4-500m # U?? Short on contract yes short on inventory?
Thank you Jesse and Adam. Great presentation! Jesse, have you read "The Great Taking" by David Rogers Webb? Perhaps you could get him on as a guest?
Thanks for watching Edward. I have read that book, very fascinating and quite concerning. I will definitely try to get David on at some point, good suggestion.
Great guest
IEA is the worst forecaster in the history of energy going back to the discovery of fire.
Absolutely agree with you.
But is that not more of a systems complexity response? Jevon only had a BA and an MA.......
'Financial engineers are the only engineers that make problems not solve them'.
Make me laugh!🤣
"Energy Demand is Massively Misunderstood" - "No matter how highly mechanised and self-powered, fossil fuels extraction requires a number of people - as if the process is executed by hands using buckets and ropes - by physics".
Today, this number is 8 billion people - working flat out 24/7 - strong.
Adam Rozencwajg, you and I are among those, too.
Therefore, what's called 'demand' is itself an illusion, in fact.
Jevons missed out that Watt's improved steam engine has taken no less than 60 years until matured and commercialised - he overlooked the total energy put into the process, technologically and socially - to wrongly conclude that Watt's engine is 'efficient' - ha ha ha
It took Toyota no less than 80 years until improved on Ford's Model T - as without the transistor, for instance, the Prius couldn't come to existence.
The Prius is not a product of its assembly line - but rather the total energy burned in the society since Ford, at the latest - and therefore - the Prius is no 'efficient' at all, actually.
What looks 'efficient' is a product of all the inefficiencies that came before it - and therefore - never efficient - as most what has come before it - is still inefficient - ha ha ha
Likewise, there is no what's called 'demand' as -
Finite fossil fuels are dangerously hypnotic to humans, their consciousness, reasoning and mental capacity.
Humans were not ready morally, ethically and intellectually to start the mass extraction of fossil fuels with the advent of the steam engine 300 years ago.
The Magna Carta requires today overhauling - adding to it the right for humans to understand what Energy really is - before any other commandment;
“In any system of energy, Control is what consumes energy the most.
No energy store holds enough energy to extract an amount of energy equal to the total energy it stores.
No system of energy can deliver sum useful energy in excess of the total energy put into constructing it.
This universal truth applies to all systems.
Energy, like time, flows from past to future” (2017).
Does anyone one know how much uranium governments have stockpiled? Or how much uranium could be recycled from the waste that is stockpiled at numerous plants?
I've worked in the industry for close to 25 years, the last 8 years have been terrible and loads of people I know have moved on or retired. Having seen it from the inside I agree entirely with Adam. I like Doomberg but he seem to have really changed some of his opinions in the last 2 years. I don't think we'll necessarily will see a giant boom (explosion in prices although possible due to geopolitics) suddenly, I think this will be more similar to the post 2008/9 crash and some others and it will be a long steady bull run until the deep water wells start coming online in 4-5 years time. The main thing is that money needs to start moving to the sector, it's too enamored with ridiculous companies that are way over priced like the AI/tech stocks and I personally feel we'll see a big rotation to the cheap stocks like oil/gas.
I also agree with that sentiment and my portfolio is arranged accordingly. Thank you for watching.
@@garryw-vc6qm I wouldn't be remotely surprised to see something like that especially if there is a bigger geopolitical even because the speculators would likely pile in and make crude look like NVIDIA stock. I think Doomberg might be missing something, yes there is a lot of oil available but the offshore and especially deep water projects take years before they come online, many OPEC countries have declining production and Saudi would be stupid to ramp up production because it would lower the price at a time when they can make up for the low prices since 2015. I think we're going to see US production start falling in the next few months and since the SPR was already drained and the DUCs have been burned through there's no buffer. Hopefully drilling activity will pick up in the next few months because it's been slim pickings for work and that's with $75 crude...a very strange situation lol.
AS CHEAP OIL BECOMES EXPENSIVE THE DIE OFF WILL INCREASE IN THE WEST THE BIG MAX USERS OF OIL.
The Black swan gonna change all! Be lucky to have electricity in 2035, all bets off thereafter. 😊
look. talking about marcellus gas supply and saying that "people say it is contrained by pipelines but we are not so sure" is really dumb. We know what the pipeline capacity is. He is also clearly not aware of the enormous amount of Utica gas under the Marcellus in South West Pennsylvania and NW West Virginia which is hardly tapped because the Marcellus is currently more economic and the Utica needs some more infrastructure upgrades because it is much higher pressure. However that enormous resource can sustain the natural gas supply from Appalachia for a long long time ....at least for many decades at todays takeaway capacity ..... there is also enormous untapped natural gas resource still in the rockies .... might need the right natural gas price but it is there ....
These people have no idea what's happening. Tenerife, best clima of the world, months 7º+ average and no one drop of rain. It's really scary. If this is the temperature curve we are all dead in 50 years. I hope not, I don't want to die in a oven.
I will take this guy over chicken little with the fake computer generated voice to conceal his identity any day of the week