Macroeconomics For Investors | ft. @The Plain Bagel
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 25 май 2024
- For access to econ community, consider / moneymacro or consider buying me a 'coffee' at ko-fi.com/moneymacro
LIKE CHATTING ECON WITH ME?
△ Follow me on Twitter: / joerischasfoort
△ Follow me on LinkedIn: / joeri-schasfoort
△ I have a private Discord server for Senior and Chief economist Patrons / members.
Otherwise I sometimes hang out in two Discord servers:
△ Unlearning Economics's server: / discord
△ Capitalists server: / discord
Timestamps:
0:00 - introduction
6:34 - doomy clickbait videos
13:20 - investment styles per industry
18:57 - technical vs. fundamental investment
30:05 - how to fundamental investment
38:24 - Richard's credentials
40:33 - U.S. vs. Canadian credentials
47:10 - macroeconomics needed for investors?
55:03 - Richard's investment mistakes
1:00:13 - accounting needed for investors?
1:08:10 - the problem with fundamental investment
1:13:48 - Richard's investment sectors
1:16:25 - oil & gas markets
1:23:08 - oil & Russia sanctions
1:31:27 - monopoly power & energy inflation
1:35:33 - investor overconfidence
1:40:00 - money printing
MAIN CHANNEL:
/ moneymacro
Guest: Richard Coffin (@ThePlainBagel)
Host: Dr. Joeri Schasfoort @Money & Macro
Love watching Money and Macro, Patrick Boyle and the Plain Bagel videos. The crossovers have been nice to see on this channel.
The only one missing to perfect the economics/finance RUclips version of the Quad would be Two Cents.
I would like to add Ben Felix for slightly more in depth research based 'boring' investing
The crossover begins !
My Biggest Question :Is The Plain Bagel naturally Ginger ?
Finally. After your Patrick Boyle episode I couldn't wait for Half-Donut Finance to come on!
I feel like this is a knowledge gold mine that no one knows about. I will inform my friends! Great stuff.
1:12:55 Richard is someone I respect a ton, but I think this question was a really good view on what I consider a blind spot of many people who call themselves "fundamental" or "value" investors: the paradigm often excludes factors that are just as fundamental, if not more, than financial statements to the (market) value of a business. In my mind, any "fundamental causal chain", whether it falls under macro or micro -economics, or whether it falls under the category of market structure, tools or instruments, deserves to be considered fundamental. Because they're literally fundamental. A lot of high-growth tech companies, for example, can be explained with actual fundamentals, if you use a literal (non-dogmatic) definition of "fundamental". Richard obviously realizes this, he's a very smart guy, but I guess my point is that when we speak about "fundamentals" we should broaden our view (carefully) on what the word really refers to.
The fact that "fundamental investing" refers to a classic style or brand of investing doesn't really do us service anymore. When the term was coined, the word was used for a reason, and that reason was true to its meaning at the time. But investing changes constantly, and we have learned a lot more about how markets and economies work (even though sometimes it feels like we don't know anything). I think the word "fundamental" needs to continue evolving and tracking all "literally-fundamental" drivers. Thank you for the question Dr Joeri!
"I know people who don't believe in bitcoin but still purchased it"
Hey, I feel called out!
When asked what macro factors investors should pay attention to would have been nice to get some key leading indicators like freight demand
I really appreciate the value of your channel and the discussions with guests you bring on. I've noticed a concept come up multiple times in economic videos that seems analogous to fundamental engineering concepts and thought I'd bring it up, because I'm curious and know very little about economics and finance. You talked about the "hog cycle" and I've also heard another related term "bullwhip effect", and other concepts also seem related like quantitative easing/tightening. These concepts seem relatable to harmonic resonances of dynamic mechanical systems, in particular the interplay between driving forces, inertia, elasticity, and friction. The harmonic oscillator is a concept that is very generalizable in the natural sciences and engineering, because fundamentally it is just mathematical behavior of the solution to an idealized model represented by 2nd order inhomogeneous ordinary differential equations. The second order derivative term represents the inertia, the first order derivative term represents the friction or losses, the zeroth order derivative term represents the stiffness or elasticity, and the inhomogeneous term represents the forcing or driving. The interplay between these terms gives rise to natural resonances and harmonic spectra, and regimes of behavior such as underdamped motion (oscillatory) and overdamped motion (usually exponential decay). It seems to me that QE/QT is a method to control the dynamic behavior of the markets, sort of like adjusting the "resistance" or "impedance" of an electrical/mechanical system to affect the behavior of harmonic resonances and temporal impulse responses. Obviously, real world systems are typically significantly more complex than an idealized model, and especially a system that has so many inputs and knobs/dials to adjust like an economy or financial market. In addition to that there are many examples of real-world systems that must be modeled non-linearly introducing phenomena such as shocks and rarefaction (I imagine economics is no exception) and we often just don't have the mathematical tools to truly understand the behavior of these systems in entirety. But we always begin our models with idealized versions and gradually add complexity and test to see if it better predicts what we observe. Do economists and/or financial analysts spend much time thinking about the comparison to dynamical systems and how the inertia/resistance/elasticity/forcing of markets can be manipulated to maintain stability or promote growth? Would love if you could talk about these topics at some point in the future. Keep up the great work!
2 of my favourite econs/finance RUclipsrs and the greatest 100 minutes of content I could ever ask for
Joeri, you should add a playlist on your main channel that links to these long form chats as I only found your second channel from pure luck.
I'll try that
Keep sharing your knowledge, hope to speak with you both one day!
This is so educational! Thank you!
@36:00 one thing overlooked about Renaissance is they did initially have NO traditional finance advisors/analysts. They did very poorly and lost money their first two years. They brought in two senior analysts and the rest is history.
Great interview! Richard speaks really well.
Top quality content👌
this is my dream content
thanks God! A young guy who really studied Warren Buffett. Excellent.
very interesting knowledge thanks guys
What a great discussion, please keep it up!
Will do :)
please please cover MMT.
Yes
We need a plain bagel index fund.
This is great.
hard find, good watch
What is the possibility we can get these as podcasts on other platforms?
High. I already uploaded one to anchor and that pushed it to Spotify. Will to the rest soon
@@MoneyMacroTalks SWEET!! Just found the one episode
@@KelechIwuaba great. Yeah that was me experimenting with uploading. The rest will follow
I think mining and oil and gas are probably the easiest sectors to invest. Wait till the oil price is negative or the mining companies are getting killed (2016), then buy the big established companies like BHP or Exon. Wait till CNBC start releasing articles that now is a good time to invest in commodities, then sell. Collect 70-80% profits. Simples 😆
These micro jump cuts are super annoying.