Economist Dr. Joeri Schasfoort Talks Inflation, Bitcoin, and Misinformation
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- Опубликовано: 28 июн 2024
- This video is available as a podcast at www.theplainbagel.com and on Apple Podcasts (search "The Plain Podcast")!
00:00 - Introduction
06:40 - The Dominance of the US Dollar
09:20 - Is Inflation = Money Printing?
13:30 - The Problem With CPI
18:33 - The Four Factors of Inflation
24:20 - Why Central Banks Target Inflation
27:39 - Bitcoin and Deflation
31:06 - Distrust of Central Banks
37:22 - Misunderstood Concepts
42:18 - Resources on Economics
I sat down with Dr. Joeri Schasfoort of the Money & Macro RUclips channel to talk about the current bout of inflation and what it means for the economy and crypto. Check out Joeri's channel: / moneymacro
If you'd like to support the channel, you can do so at / theplainbagel :)
Buy a Plain Bagel Mug and support a charity! Proceeds for 2022 will be donated to Doctors Without Borders: store.dftba.com/collections/t...
DISCLAIMER:
This channel is for education purposes only and does not constitute financial advice - Richard is not responsible for investment actions taken by viewers. Please seek out a registered advisor if you require assistance (while Richard is a registered portfolio manager at WDS Investment Management, he does not provide advice through The Plain Bagel, which is not affiliated with his employer).
Thanks for the great conversation! Great timing of this release as I finally finished the inflation video we talked about 😃.
I second that!
are you teaching any lectures this semester?
Four Economic sectors. Primary, Secondary, Tertiary, Quaternary.
Is there a chart or website or channel, that breaks down WHAT time of year each sector is at its strongest?
As well as a chart that shows historical data Year by year for each sector performance?
Great conversation. Thanks for spreading quality information
Couldn't ask for anything more this saturday morning than Plain Bagel and a Groninger.
Kon minder :)
I love the trend of academics sharing knowledge online. I'm sick of fake-gurus who are as dumb as I am.
Same
Dumber
If you're watching academics online, you're probably smarter than you think
same
Well said good sir , well said .👍
Great interview, and thanks for the shout out at the end. I have been a subscriber to Money & Macro for a few months and would strongly recommend the channel.
Thanks Patrick!!!
Patrick is my favorite comedian on RUclips 😉
besides the amazing content, love your sense of humor 😂 - thanks!
Wow! Great trifecta!
Would love to see a economist Vs hedge fund manager Vs investor on tricky topics.
Then I feel that we're finally getting the fuller picture
All great minds 😍,
Subscriber of all 3s (free)😔😁
Dr. Schasfoort is the golden standard of the RUclipsr economists. He is both considerable and well-articulated.
So glad to see Joeri here. Love Money&Macro and The Plain Bagel channels. The combo is so great!
Off topic but I love Joeri's voice I feel like I could listen to him speak on stuff all day lol
Goodbye, Economics Explained; hello, Joeri Schasfoort! Thank you for introducing me to this guy's channel. Finally, some uncommon economic sense on RUclips.
Economics Explained simply copy-pastes texts from textbooks and news articles
@@JerkandDork EE is exactly that type of wikipedia page + stock footage youtuber
It’s refreshing to hear a conversation between two rational, well-informed, thoughtful people on RUclips.i wish the good content drove out the bad content
Can't wait the whole video in 1 sitting, but I'm definitely coming back to watch the rest of it! I love the guest speakers and long video format!
A. Mitchell Innes has written two notable papers about credit money in which he refutes the barter story of the classical economists and points out how money has always been largely credit based. It's very interesting and a must-read for anybody who wants to explore the nature of money. The two papers are "What is money" and "The credit theory of money" and you can find them freely available online. Those have also influenced a lot of post-keynesian economists and maybe most notably the MMT people. For me it seems most useful to think about money as credit. You can use all kinds of commodities as means of exchange and value storage and so on which most people intuitively associate with money. But if you include those in the money term you are basically saying that anything is money to a degree which doesn't get to the core of it. Therefore I like to think of money as debt and only as debt and of everything else just as commodities that may or may not be useful for trading purposes and so on. Commodities are kind of a fallback for when you loose trust in a debt-based monetary system.
Debt is created by the interaction of two entities. If the whole economy consisted of only two individuals money would simply be created if somebody writes on a piece of paper that he/she owes me something equal to 10 potatoes. That's it. Money got created. If you add more people you'll notice that you can now pay other people with that piece of paper given they trust the originator pays back his debt when it comes due.
Another interesting view the one of Georg Friedrich Knapp known as the "state theory of money" which points out that most of the time money has been a "creature of the law" in that there often has been an authority that established a certain unit of account.
thanks for the video and kudos to both of you, great job! you're very good at what you're doing!
Dr. Joeri Schasfoort that was one of the best explanations of the contributing factors to inflation I have heard. Thanks man you can consider me +1 to your subs
Great Video guys!! Richard I really enjoy your videos and find them very useful and highly insightful. Could you please do 1 about stock spilts and their significance? Would be very helpful.
25:04 As a Turkish citizen who is experiencing that inflation, in 2013 as a college student you could have lived with 500 600 Turkish liras a month easily(rent excluded). 2018 you could live with 800 900 Turkish liras. 2022 you need 1500 Turkish liras to not live but survive without any social activities. Appreciate US or EU standards of living guys it's really a blessing.
So would it be safe for an Anglo looking American to go over there with a remote business and live on the beach like a king with loose women?
@@harveypolanski755 Everything other than imports like a Phone or a computer, is 1/15 of it's uk price. You can be a king here with your 2000 pounds because a professor doesn't earn 1000 pounds a month.
@@harveypolanski755 not for one that speaks/thinks like that, no.
Greek/Canadian here... I would invest money out of Turkey if I were you or have a business based in another country. Personally I am trying to get in the Japanese market but it is not easy. The USD is about to lose it's world reserve currency statues. Most of what you see and don't understand in the markets, is market manipulation right now, to try and stock up in every commodity possible by large players and institutions as they are trying to hedge against the unknown. Don't freak out like they are... Don't worry everything is going to work it self out...
@@harveypolanski755 Yes, Muslim countries are known for booze parties on the beach and loose women, I think you’ll do great flaunting wealth and partying like that!
What a fantastic discussion that I sincerely thoroughly enjoyed listing two. Thank you so very much for sharing this.
Cool crossover! Just started watching the both of you quite recently.
You two are the only two finance/economic channels I actually enjoy. Awesome to see two great minds working together!
Also check Patrick Boyle's channel 👍
I think you'd enjoy watching Patrick Boyle too!
@@thomas.02 Patrick is awesome! Informative, funny and sincere
Dr. Joeri Schasfoort's RUclips channel is awesome. Macroeconomics seems to be mostly handwaving but he makes it almost sensible.
"Before you get too excited....." Hahahahaha, welcome to Dutch directness 👊😂
This is probably the best collaboration in the history of RUclips! Was really hoping something like this was coming out!
Like a wish come true! Hahaha
They really are the gold standard. Credible and humble
Hi, Richard. Thank you for another great discussion.
I've been following you for a while and I heard you mentioning getting close to the time limit for the video several times. It sparked my curiosity: why is there a time limit?
Apologies if you already answered this before and I missed, and if you could please point me to the answer I would be very grateful.
Thank you, and as always, it's a pleasure following you.
The collab we all wanted
Really appreciate people like money and macro!
Not only adding sources but it would great if channels recommend other channels in the descriptions. It would help everyone involved and kick the algorithms ass!
Thanks for the reasonable, nuanced, grounded discourse on complicated topics. Crypto/inflation discourse is maddening.
Great to see more podcasts!
Excellent interview
I love this! watching this while eating my breakfast :) Thank you!
This video is amazing and this guy is brilliant
Great interview
Fantastic video!
Very nice video Richard.
wow my two favorite economists
What a great conversation! Would love to subscribe on Google podcast !
yoooo best crossover
Great Interview!
Amazing!!
Inflation is great if you own assets. Even better if you own (reasonably) leveraged assets.
i think if you can, you should go over all the numbers on buying your first house or first rental. yeah i know your a fin. analyst but these videos do very very well considering who your subs are.
I respect your level tone and caution on a lot of this money stuff and I think you would be a unique voice in the youtube world.
either way, thanks for uploading
Yes! Yes! Yes!
Follow both your channels and loved the interview. Regarding deflation, please invite Jeff Booth, author of Price of Tomorrow
Great interview, Canada sure did kick the crap out of deflation worries.
Love this. Thanks Richard and Joeri!
Awesome stuff. Everybody mentioned got a new subscriber.
Great interview!
Any chance you can get Damodaran on the podcast? :D
Great show!
That would be awesome
Great suggestion! I'll see what I can do
Ya it's tough to walk that fine line of 'gatekeeping' as he said. You can't just "trust Economists" like you trust a surgeon as if Economists haven't been SPECTACULARLY wrong about economic outcomes before aka through history.
Many [Academic] Economists wish [and/or pretend] their subject is like physics or medicine, but it's just too complex to ever 'solve' because it's a 'science' of human behavior. Hence why there are always new theories being created to explain the last recession or crisis that was not predicted by 99% of the "professionals".
It reminds me of the military quote: Generals are always prepared to fight the previous war. ;-)
Mate...It's been predicted almost a century ago already. Read the writings of Ludwig von Mises. Though, I suggest you start with Sowell's Basic Economics.
Economists primarily spray economic perfume upon the machinations of their ideological masters and stank upon their ideological enemies.
@@glensmith491 This is true for the intellectual "economists". Hence why the real empirical economists get outmaneuvered because they don't deal in wishful propaganda.
@@epsilon3821 Ludwig von Mises AHHAHAHAHAHA
the flat earther of economics
Very informative and entertaining
Thank you for the interview. I think this is the best podcast that I have watched on your channel. I really hope to see another collaboration between you and Dr. Joeri again.
Pog money & Macro
Great interview - good to hear more in- depth discussion of a fairly dry topic which was interesting and providing details not shown on other finance Channels - g00d stuff fellas!
You must not live downtown because I can't hear the horns in the background lol. Great content, appreciate you buddy
Great video, RUclips needs more of these honest intelligent discussions. Goed bezig Joeri!
Hi Richard, just started watching your videos from its beginnings and because I just started investing through Robinhood I have learned a small amount of knowledge in stocks. Not commenting on your latest video, I saw the video about investing in stocks won't get you rich and I agree with you 100%. I'm a 62 year old that just retired with limited income can I realistically see some money with limited investments. I know I don't give much info but overhead expenses are small and monthly income is little over 900 a month. Question is can I see some profits from let's say 200 a month investing in estate stocks? I'm looking at long-term say 10 years. Thanks in advance!
Good stuff!
Richard what’s going on with those earbuds? They are quite bent. Also great vid!
28:40 More like "They have DeFi'd the odds", am I right?
You should do a video with Justin Oh from Cents Invest
Wonderful video, and made me aware of money and macro. Nice to hear an academic view of crypto.
Serious question, please somebody explain:
25:20 Theory of Debt deflation.
He says that of businesses go out of business - - > there is less demand.
How? If business goes bust, it means that supply goes down and thus prices go up and delaftionary spiral is avoided.
Is it not?
HAHA love it.
“Your video on inflation is good”
“Oohh thanks!”
“No no, wait, before you get excited, it’s cause everything else it sh**”
man i love economics i would lvoe to do a major but there not a lot of jobs to apply it properly i feel like only jobs youll get its on goverment or university and ong. any advice out there what other focus are out there that companies look for? thanks!
fiat means by decree. does that change the dynamic?
Plain Bagel and a Groninger in one video.
As a Groninger, I cannot ask for any more.
Grunn
Raising interest rates during a supply shortage is NOT like killing the patient to stop a disease, because the patient isn't dead, we are just encouraging people to save and not to spend now, when the shelves are empty. Clearly if demand drops for a few months, there will be time for the ports to get fixed and catch up, and then no more supply problem ! But since the patient ISN'T actually dead, and still has their money saved, when the supply issues are gone, and the shelves are overflowing, they can THEN spend the money on the abundant stuff, and not have inflation, so the higher rates DO solve the shipping problem, by giving the breathing room to fix it, just like some restrictions on people gave time for the hospitals to empty, and vaccines to be made. Sometimes a pause is what is needed to right the ship.
Good points. I think his point was raising interest rates will "kill" demand. Like in 1979-1982 when interest rates went potentially too high and caused a recession, and killed demand too much.
In 2007, rising interest rates, caused a lot of people to default on their debt, sort of killed demand in housing.
In my opinion you are 100% correct on needing to raise interest rates. The extremes with Fed policy over the last 25 years has made booms and busts of the tech bubble, the US housing bubble (causing GFC), and many bubbles today.
@@TbirdThunderstruck yes. This was my intention with the analogy.
I think it largely boils down to where you believe most of today's inflation comes from. If I read correctly, you are arguing the massive demand-shift from goods to services is the main culprit behind supply chain disruptions (not e.g. port shutdown which would be pure cost-push inflation).
If that is indeed the case an interest rate might be appropriate to sort that out.
I know it might come across as such, I. Not against a rate hike at all. I just think it should be fine for the right reasons and with an acknowledgement about potential collateral damage.
@@MoneyMacro In the end, we don't know what is causing the inflation, since there are both port slowdowns and a lot more base money at the same time, but because the port issues are persistent, fixing them would at least clarify the situation, even if it does not stop the inflation. The ports themselves never shut down, because they were essential jobs, however, there was a shortage of truckers to move stuff from the ports, because the ports are dysfunctional, and its undesirable from a trucker perspective to deal with the hassle of getting a load out of a port, for reasons related to how ports operate. In the end, we don't know what tapering and raising rates will do. IMO, the patient that may die is the US government, which has 30 Trillion of outstanding debt, mostly short term debt, and that gets VERY hard to service, at even a moderate rate of interest. IMO, 2 % should be payable, but remember that the US budget is WAY in deficit, so every point of interest makes the budget situation that much worse, even if the real rates are still very low.
Bitcoin is in the process of monetizing, and that is why it is excessively volatile on the upside and the downside. In time, it should behave more like gold, still having large swings, but over years not hours. Its volatile now, because its mostly held by speculators, but as it becomes more stable, they will sell, and people who just want to save will become the largest holders, and this will make its price more stable. It could still become usable money then, when the price isn't mooning anymore, and the fear that you would overpay will go away, for the most part, when huge moves are no longer the norm.
That was a great interview! I would be happy to watch another one in the future.
Well done as always!
Money & Macro, Unlearning Economics, Patric Boyle, and Plain Bagel are a great start if you are into Bitcoin, but not into cults.
im glad i found your channel. keep it up man!
Amazing!
I think there's a pretty significant difference between monetary vs productivity driven deflation. Assuming the money supply remained perfectly proportional to the population, you wouldn't see stable prices - you'd see deflation. That's because people and businesses get more productive over time. This is the "good" kind of deflation.
The "bad" kind of deflation is the kind that Dr. Schasfoort seems to be referencing - the monetary kind of deflation (i.e. where debt is destroyed via default). In a highly indebted economy, deflationary episodes like that hurt tremendously. And those episodes have historically led to very strong political reactions. Though it's the only medicine to a debt bubble besides huge currency debasement, I suppose.
Very interesting. I'm wondering though, in your first example, you do have to assume people are consuming the same exact things, no? An increase in consumption(demand) could counterbalance an increase in productivity(offer). Am I missing something?
@@pascalladal8125 Yes, in the example, I assume the basket of goods stays the same. In any event, you'd be able to get more or better stuff for the same amount of spending as before.
For a real example, check out the late 1800s in the US, one of its greatest eras of economic growth, which saw consistent deflation with huge increases in productivity, purchasing power, and real wages.
@@JackDuffley Cool thanks! I'll check it out! Take care
Where will the monetary base come from?
@@JackDuffley BASED. Have you ever read Thomas Sowell?
Bitcoin is trust in PoW, not trust in others. Work/energy can't be counterfeited.
No, fiat means “let it be done” in Latin. It is currency not by consent , but by command.
love Joeri and how he rips apart terrible econ channels like EE
God yeah Economics Explained is awful
@@chilldude30 I've watched a few of his videos, but don't have a decent understanding of economics. Why is EE bad? Does he do the sensationalizing that Joeri mentioned?
@@thealrightgatsby1874 Money & Macro has a few video responses to EE videos, e.g. "Hyperinflation Already Here? REALLY!? | Economist Responds" and "Dutch Economy Most Unequal? REALLY!? | Dutch Economist Responds" (both from Money & Macro); you can start to perceive EE has some biases and superficiality
@@robervaldo4633 ah the classic guy who thinks response videos means the responder is more right
@@chilldude30 haha I’m still an economics noob so I was always under the impression that he was a good and knowledgeable person
Breaks my heart, he was the first eco channel I watched 😅
34:18 I say this with all the love in the world: THAT'S WHAT WE'RE HOPING YOU WOULD ADDRESS AT SOME POINT!! Please do explore that! As you said, people intuitively know the game is rigged towards financialization, hence the exponential adoption of Bitcoin and the increasing focus of 'average people' on out of control asset price inflation.
I would love to see Joeri and/or TPB have a discussion with any of Robert Breedlove, Raoul Pal, Lyn Alden, Brent Johnson, Preston Pysh etc. You could just hash out the differences and overlap between the Bitcoin paradigm and the Mainstream.
Money supply can increase and not cause inflation, as long as the demand of that money being printed stays constant. If the monetary base is expanded, money continues to ciriculate with constant speed, and there is no increase in the supply of good & services to match the consumption power the new money will give the people, you're getting inflation.
I'm going to invest all my money in bitcoin, and when the price crashes I'll panic sell everything and lose tons of money. Am I doing it right?
You are on the right path my brother!
You also have to invest in a shitty altcoin and comment everywhere that it will go to the moon
No, an investment produces an income stream. Bitcoin is a speculative instrument.
This is the way
As Warren Buffet once said, "Buy high and sell low"!
Can we nominate this guy for the FED chairman? Such cogency, rationality, and no BS.
Has anyone tried to average/synthesize the four theories for inflation 21:30 as a metric for overall CPI?
This is great work
I have a question. Does share price drop to 100 % of it's value?if it's fundamental r strong? If not why? Could you please answer my question
If nobody recognises the intrinsic value, I think the share price could fall 100%. As the share price falls, a company’s credit rating is likely to fall, and cost of capital rise. Suppliers and customers would be reluctant to do business with the company .
Man i just love these two guys ;) If you look at finance and macro youtube, there's so much to learn from them. I just enjoy the way they talk without much hysteria and so calm and respectful :)
Perhaps we need a currency based on "Energy" a truly finite measure.
Deflation is the bomb that banks have strapped to their fiat currencies. If prices ever started going down, the debt-based economy of the world will be plunged into chaos.
Soon these discussions will be centred around historical events, not economic theories.
Joeri's point about banks monetizing natural debt/credit relationships between people and the capacity to create money (loans creating deposits) exactly at the necessary spot is excellent. I had never thought about it this way previously despite understanding how deposits are created.
You should have on Evidence based Wealth (Aka, BelangP). He has some of the best arguments for gold as a store of wealth without discounting other asset classes like most goldbugs.
Thanks a lot. Let´s go to the next "topic" and "struggle" on that. "GROWTH", "ZERO GROWTH", next "CLIMATE FRIENDLY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT", "GREEN ECONOMY". That is, when it gets interesting. I remember, that in corona times we were able to see that animals appeared on the roads, where cars were driving. Let us not be "stuck" in "terminology" (even though practic examples are given" ......
Oh, this channel is Candian, didn't notice.... *hears 'about'*
..ah, there it is, yes Canadian.
26:12 talking about debt and deflation, arent banks reserving the right to readjust your debt in case of inflation? "you want a loan or not?"
How about the effect on inflation of factors like price competition, labor impoverishing trade agreements, monopoly or greedy surplus creation...
Bitcoin has no intrinsic value same as the dollar has no intrinsic value. That's the perfect take on it. Both do however have an extrinsic value and that is where the "zero value" argument falls apart.
Does anything at all have intrinsic value?
34:30 - Ah yes, the good old CookieClicker economy.
Crypto stablecoins are pegged to US treasury bonds?
So they're really just 21st century version of South Sea Company...
Who says hostory does not repeat?
This is the guy who dismantled Economics Explained, right? Seems like a cool dude.
Why this guy look like Elon? *subscribed*
Thank you, gentlemen.
Minute 39.00 All you explain... how does it relate to "Political Systems", such as "socialist" , "capitalist" systems. More recently I read, that the way the "European central bank" is run, is actually very similar to socialist banking systems. .... How would you comment on that?
Andreas Marquart, an economist, says that price stability policy is a "trojan horse". Economies do not need it. ....What do you think about it?
And ... what about the governance of international finance? What do you know? What should we know? What role does the individual play?
Good stuff but I would expect you going much deeper since the video is 49 minutes long.
Debt is a natural way of society, agree.
However, debt money is said to have the ability to target people who use them the best.
That is not an ability of Debt money. That is ability of profesional lending. If profesionals calculate risk and want to make profit, they surgically allocate money to the right people and it doesn't matter if money came from Debt creation or from savings that were lended to somebody.
At 11:00 it was a bit cringe that economist didn't find causation of money supply and CPI decoupling, while it's obvious that technology is responsible! Some industries got more advanced and automated than others!
Richard Coughing or Richard Coffin? Or maybe Richard Coffing, the Pokémon?
Ah, screw that, I am just gonna call you Hans.