Why Intelligence Fails
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- Опубликовано: 15 июн 2014
- Who lives in caves, only holy men or primitive cavemen? Dr. Milo Jones, visiting professor at IE Business School in Madrid, Spain, thinks that the answer to that question helps explain the intelligence failure of 9/11. He comes to the International Spy Museum to argue that the CIA's repeated intelligence failures are a result of the fact that the CIA thinks that intelligence analysis is science while it is really a social process in which identity and culture play a major role. Also joining us for the evening will be Dr. Mark Lowenthal, CEO of the Intelligence and Security Academy and former assistant director of Central Intelligence for Analysis and Production. He will engage with Dr. Jones on the provocative conclusions of the book Constructing Cassandra: Reframing Intelligence Failure at the CIA, 1947--2001, that Jones co-authored with Philippe Silberzahn of EMLYON Business School in France.
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Развлечения
A thought provoking and fascinating discussion.
As usual, the answer is complicated and many faceted, which is how many things also happen to be.
No doubt this will not satisfy those who come to the subject with a preconceived idea of how things should work in a much more black and white way.
After watching this again. His view of the agency is actually correct and the bald guy is immediately emotional about the issue so he can’t see past the bias
How wonderful to hear this man twice, from his mouth and then echoed from the wall behind him.
If a speech is worth hearing, it's worth hearing with a full woing-woing-woing.
A very honest conversation about critical issues of concern highlighting how Intelligences failures and successes impact the real life works in best interests of nation people's.
I love Lowenthal! My favourite scholar
very well done
Enjoyed the video. Watching two linguist oriented analysts
give incomplete yes, no bivalent responses to important
WMD type data questions that "called out" for gap filling
yes, no, maybe analyses. Obvious oversights pained
my MBA trained intellect.
That is, NSA and CIA have not translated "intercepts "
beyond bivalent biases, and seem unprepared to consider
adding trivalent translations, a truth table form of logic
embedded in Google translate. Math historians strive to
read ancient Egyptian math texts as originally written,
efforts since 2001 that have cleared up overlooked
Egyptian number theory, missed my bivalent linguists
since 1927. Abstract algebra based number theory was
taught to Greeks and its mythical Cassandra characters
have been confirmed over 60 times in the RMP by adding
back missing scribal shorthand steps (by thinking outside
the box ...by applying trivalent logic).
A very surprisingly open discussion on the process of Intelligence and national policy, and the many ways who wants to hear what rather than looking at the data and not inserting a political which colors or distorts whats being presented.
Thanks, William. Glad you found it useful.
your welcome, when I look at a variety of issues it's not where things went well, it's where the failure occurs that carries more information that's useful. And to see a respectful exchange of views that's refreshing. and promotes understanding of a issue.
Grammarly.
Do a background check on Milo Jones. Why was he forced out of the USMC?
A lot of weird comments here. I am going to buy the book, Cassandra is definitely a thing
At 39:00 where Lowenthal talks about the CIA allowing policy makers to avoid major crises, he very conveniently omits mention of the major crises that the Dulles CIA engineered and the blowback from which still bedevils the USA today. (Read 'The Brothers' by Stephen Kinzer.)
I know it would be difficult, but could they have an amnesty box to voice their complaints with evidence that gets reviewed? I think foresight could also come from computer simulations.
At 43:58 Lowenthal: "We [the CIA] had reams of memos about Al-Qaeda ... warning about the threat to the United States proper" -- but nothing was done about it.
very great interview🌋🏔🌏🏕🏝
Pearl Harbor may have been an intelligence failure but it was an operational success since it accomplished FDR’s goal of getting the US into the Second World War by having Japan strike the first blow. Even FDR’s admirers admit that he was provoking the Japanese to strike. He was doing the same to the Germans but they didn’t take the bait.
Mine doesnt
Is it me or is Lowenthal rather rude in upstaging Jones who is, by the way, the invited speaker? There's presenting an audience with one's own alternative perspectives (if asked to do so) and then there's a blithe cutting down of another's work. Lowenthal's conduct is of the latter.
Sorry to be so off topic but does anyone know a way to log back into an instagram account..?
I stupidly lost my password. I love any tips you can give me!
@Michael Duncan Thanks for your reply. I got to the site through google and im waiting for the hacking stuff atm.
Looks like it's gonna take quite some time so I will reply here later with my results.
@Michael Duncan It did the trick and I now got access to my account again. I'm so happy:D
Thanks so much, you saved my ass :D
@Zeke Leonardo happy to help :)
Your exactly correct I saw that also. So EMOTION: happy/sad/mad/. Or in this case some Anger = HURT, FEAR, OR FRUSTRATION. -. You can tell he’s immediately emotional and acts like a typical arrogant agency know it all where they are so deep in the swamp they are incapable of getting a non bias opinion. Understand intelligence is a lot like politics. I’ve seen several intel analysis that swear 100% that X is the answer all to find out years later it was completely wrong. ***Like in Iraq they said this building is a chemical weapons factory! Because the massive air handling units on the roof. ))) well we raid the place all to find out it’s a Iraqi 4-h /FFA type-Club ***. Not one of the analyst had the common sense to say “You know what it’s 120*F in the summer, that’s probably why they have huge A/C units on the roof!” Instead they said it was for ventilation of chemical weapons. This is just an example. Everything Jones says is like 99% accurate btw. But lowen is so emotionally charged he’s incapable of taking any criticism
1:23:00 Most people who voted for war in Iraq, did not read the CIA assessment on WMD
1:25:24 _"It takes a special kind of person to run for a public office in the USA today... And that kind of person frequently is not interested in nuance, or even facts, much less truth."_
If everyone THOUGHT Iraq had WMDs, didn’t this skew the analysis? Why was every piece of evidence (Niger yellowcake, mobile poison gas trucks, drones, chemical attacks in 15 minutes, aluminum tubes for centrifuges etc.) wrong in the direction of supporting the war? You would have been better off flipping a coin. Why was Curveball believed even though German intelligence repeatedly warned he was a fabricator? What exactly did Colin Powell vet during the three days he camped out at the CIA?
great pr these museum shows.golly, i guess you folks ain't so bad after all!!!
And strangely enough it was 411 when I asked that question. Damn I got to do more research now some b****
Excuse me but did you just say your name was Vincent Snowden what the hell oh my God
Very nice 🙏🥭🍌🍓🥒🌽🌽🍅🍅🌽🍒🍑🍋🍊🍋🍊🍍🍏🍆🍇🍇🥬🍈🦅🦅🙏
Just put (almost) everything on-line: transparent, free and open. And folks online can then make their own policy decisions. End of the corporate nonsense.
the competition guy is the problem
🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🌻🌻🌻🌼🌼🌼🌻🥬🥬🥦🍎👌
The bearded one gave no answer on how they got the wmd question wrong, he used the excuse that everyone else was wrong also;
250txc Lowenthal has written several articles on the matter... check them out, he’s brilliant!
"why didn't we know 9/11 was going to happen?"
it is widely known that we did.
Widely known means exactly what?
Well, you guys should feel really speshal with Snowden, Manning, abnormal psychology, summoned, demonic chick. I managed to get a clearance, and so did everyone else. When I talked to the lady, I was delusional, and she didn't catch that. As far as failure goes, Snowden should realize that they have to watch everything. Bad programming. The music is not making us look good and appears to be a bomb, too. I'll keep doing it because I'm pissed.
I found this speaker boring
That NAACP (cave people) joke was cringeworthy.
What About the Vietnam + Aghanistan DEBACLES???????????????..... :(
And strangely enough it was 411 when I asked that question. Damn I got to do more research now some b****