I understand 15 sounding good compared to 10 launches last year, but remember the 10 was quite a disappointment due to the anomaly so In that context I think 15 would be disappointing.
Analyzing the NASA fire satellites, you can see a hot signature in the Wallops space centre, It was shorter than 1 hour, but hot enough to be to be registered. It might have been the test.
Great preview! Given Peter's recent public commentary on twitter, I think hot fire is in the pocket. He doesn't tend to proactively comment on things that are not high likelihood. Thanks for the work you put into this channel, the tone and editing was great as always. Keep it up!
Barely a week to go for earnings call. Hot fire shouldn't be too far away either. Meantime, market fell a lot today and yesterday. Good time to load up? Thumbs up for your fine video, btw 👍
In regards to cash flow positive; I have late 2026 or into 2027. I agree 2025 is just really where it should start to become blatantly evident "ok, it's going that way".
I'm with you on the white whale. Something's going on with Solar. Its either another constellation or they are trying to beef up the supply chain to impress the SDA.
RKLB $667,786,000 Million loss since IPO, see ACCUMULATED LOSS / DEFICIT line item SEC 10-K/Q. The LOSS is 28,78% of the $2.32B Market Cap. - This means RKLB has been paying the interest for years (with more borrowed money) not paying much principle. - ACCUMULATED LOSS is lowered when paying down loan principle & adding / increasing revenue streams. - CONSEQUENCES of ACCUMULATED LOSS over time: risk to PROFITABILITY, difficulty FINANCING, financial INSTABILITY, low shareholder CONFIDENCE, potential FAILURE, reduced SHAREHOLDER EQUITY, potential BANKRUPTCY. -
Good point, one thing going for RKLB is they stated to realize early that they had to branch out for other revenue streams. Hopefully it will keep them going long enough for Neutron to stop being a drain on the bottom line. I worked for VO during their last two years, I never bought into their stock options as I easily on day 1 saw that it was a bankruptcy sooner or later as they had no revenue streams other than launch and knowing how inefficient their rocket was not only to produce but to process, it was never going to make real money.
This is the case for most startups until they scale. Look at Tesla lost money for several years on their cars until they were able to scale and reach profitability. Rocket Lab is still in prove it territory but their accumulated losses for rocket/space systems company seems nominal for this early of a stage
@@xshakespearex1 You might find this interesting. ALL stocks since IPO, startups AND mature, carry some SEC 10-K/Q line item ACCUMULATED LOSS. The two low vs high extremes I find are Momentus MNTS, and Nvidia NVDA.: stock | ACCUMULATED LOSS | % of mCap | Market Cap MNTS | -($373,047,000) | 4048.3975% | $9,214,683 NVDA | -($27,000,000) | 0.0011% | $2,554,571,200,000 Here are more current examples high to low: BKSY | -($27,000,000) M | 412.8534% | $148,910,000 M LUNR | -($480,837,000) M | 249.3259% | $192,854,800 M RDW | -($241,886,000) M | 57.9939% | $417,088,800 M * RKLB | -($667,786,000) M | 28.7716% | $2,320,993,800 B PLTR | -($5,544,083,000) B | 10.5166% | $52,717,500,000 B ASTS | -($209,392,000) M | 3.7593% | $2,990,676,000 B GOOG | -($5,012,000,000) B | 0.2248% | $2,229,630,240,000 T META | -($2,695,000,000) B | 0.2170% | $1,242,060,000,000 T AMZN | -($3,598,000,000) B | 0.2073% | $1,735,867,500,000 T MSTF | -($5,435,000,000) B | 0.1773% | $3,066,038,170,000 T AAPL | -($4,339,000,000) B | 0.1285% | $3,376,193,342,400 T TSLA | -($467,000,000) M | 0.0681% | $685,467,200,000 B NVDA | -($27,000,000) M | 0.0011% | $2,554,571,200,000 T - It is a matter of how efficiently ALL companies use the money they borrow. For example, All companies pay interest on DEBT; startups tend to skip paying principle, ACCUMULATING LOSS.
@@xshakespearex1 You might find this interesting. ALL stocks since IPO, startups AND mature, carry some SEC 10-K/Q line item ACCUMULATED LOSS. The two low vs high extremes I find are Momentus MNTS, and Nvidia NVDA.: stock | ACCUMULATED LOSS | % of mCap | Market Cap MNTS | -($373,047,000) | 4048.3975% | $9,214,683 NVDA | -($27,000,000) | 0.0011% | $2,554,571,200,000 Here are more current examples high to low: BKSY | -($27,000,000) M | 412.8534% | $148,910,000 M LUNR | -($480,837,000) M | 249.3259% | $192,854,800 M RDW | -($241,886,000) M | 57.9939% | $417,088,800 M * RKLB | -($667,786,000) M | 28.7716% | $2,320,993,800 B PLTR | -($5,544,083,000) B | 10.5166% | $52,717,500,000 B ASTS | -($209,392,000) M | 3.7593% | $2,990,676,000 B GOOG | -($5,012,000,000) B | 0.2248% | $2,229,630,240,000 T META | -($2,695,000,000) B | 0.2170% | $1,242,060,000,000 T AMZN | -($3,598,000,000) B | 0.2073% | $1,735,867,500,000 T MSTF | -($5,435,000,000) B | 0.1773% | $3,066,038,170,000 T AAPL | -($4,339,000,000) B | 0.1285% | $3,376,193,342,400 T TSLA | -($467,000,000) M | 0.0681% | $685,467,200,000 B NVDA | -($27,000,000) M | 0.0011% | $2,554,571,200,000 T - It is a matter of how efficiently ALL companies use the money they borrow. For example, All companies pay interest on DEBT; startups tend to skip paying principle, ACCUMULATING LOSS.
@@xshakespearex1 You might find this interesting. ALL stocks since IPO, startups AND mature, carry some SEC 10-K/Q line item ACCUMULATED LOSS. The examples of low vs high extremes: - stock ACCUMULATED LOSS % of mCap Market Cap MNTS -($373,047,000) M 4048.3975% $9,214,683 M not profitable RKLB -($667,786,000) M 28.7716% $2,320,993,800 B not profitable TSLA -($467,000,000) M 0.0681% $685,467,200,000 B profitable NVDA -($27,000,000) M 0.0011% $2,554,571,200,000 T profitable - It is a matter of how efficiently ALL companies use the money they borrow. For example, All companies pay interest on DEBT; startups tend to skip paying principle, ACCUMULATING LOSS.
Hot fire or no hot fire? 🤔
Would be a bit problematic to not have the hot fire by earnings.
(Given Beck’s “only a week or so away” post. Though a “we’re very nearly there” would be okay-ish).
Rocketlab - the waste manage of space?
Barely a week to go for earnings call, right?
Meantime, market fell a lot today and yesterday.
Good time to load up?
@@manofsan earnings is on the 8th.
Thanks! appreciate all of the detail. Very helpful to me as a long term investor
Much appreciated 🤝
Thanks!
Anyone notice the new batter pack and increase in payload?
Love your analysis! Thank you!
I understand 15 sounding good compared to 10 launches last year, but remember the 10 was quite a disappointment due to the anomaly so In that context I think 15 would be disappointing.
Love that last little round up of what's going to happen 💪
Appreciate the work and let's see what happens 🚀 thanks 🙏
Peter Beck said he was in Mississippi for engine testing in a Bloomberg interview today. Seems to bode well for hot test.
Analyzing the NASA fire satellites, you can see a hot signature in the Wallops space centre, It was shorter than 1 hour, but hot enough to be to be registered. It might have been the test.
@AvrahamStern48 the hot fire test is being done at nasa test at stenis space facility in Mississippi.
@@Capt.daveGe My mistake mate, I've thought that the one is missisippi is wallops, I'm not yank.
You called it
Great preview! Given Peter's recent public commentary on twitter, I think hot fire is in the pocket. He doesn't tend to proactively comment on things that are not high likelihood. Thanks for the work you put into this channel, the tone and editing was great as always. Keep it up!
About time they announce some Neutron contracts
Another informative episode Scott.. much appreciated from down under .. Cheers
good stuff Scott
That was fun!
Great stuff Scott thanks
You’re the man. Thanks for covering my favorite company.
Good job 👍✌️
Thanks for the vid. Hot fire is not important for me, it WILL happen. If not this Q then next Q. As long as they do a good job i keep buying.
Its 100% time in Q3 for a haste lauch
Barely a week to go for earnings call. Hot fire shouldn't be too far away either.
Meantime, market fell a lot today and yesterday.
Good time to load up?
Thumbs up for your fine video, btw 👍
In regards to cash flow positive; I have late 2026 or into 2027. I agree 2025 is just really where it should start to become blatantly evident "ok, it's going that way".
I'm with you on the white whale. Something's going on with Solar. Its either another constellation or they are trying to beef up the supply chain to impress the SDA.
What do you think the TAM for devris clean up coukd really be?
RKLB $667,786,000 Million loss since IPO, see ACCUMULATED LOSS / DEFICIT line item SEC 10-K/Q. The LOSS is 28,78% of the $2.32B Market Cap.
-
This means RKLB has been paying the interest for years (with more borrowed money) not paying much principle.
-
ACCUMULATED LOSS is lowered when paying down loan principle & adding / increasing revenue streams.
-
CONSEQUENCES of ACCUMULATED LOSS over time: risk to PROFITABILITY, difficulty FINANCING, financial INSTABILITY, low shareholder CONFIDENCE, potential FAILURE, reduced SHAREHOLDER EQUITY, potential BANKRUPTCY.
-
Good point, one thing going for RKLB is they stated to realize early that they had to branch out for other revenue streams. Hopefully it will keep them going long enough for Neutron to stop being a drain on the bottom line. I worked for VO during their last two years, I never bought into their stock options as I easily on day 1 saw that it was a bankruptcy sooner or later as they had no revenue streams other than launch and knowing how inefficient their rocket was not only to produce but to process, it was never going to make real money.
This is the case for most startups until they scale. Look at Tesla lost money for several years on their cars until they were able to scale and reach profitability. Rocket Lab is still in prove it territory but their accumulated losses for rocket/space systems company seems nominal for this early of a stage
@@xshakespearex1 You might find this interesting. ALL stocks since IPO, startups AND mature, carry some SEC 10-K/Q line item ACCUMULATED LOSS.
The two low vs high extremes I find are Momentus MNTS, and Nvidia NVDA.:
stock | ACCUMULATED LOSS | % of mCap | Market Cap
MNTS | -($373,047,000) | 4048.3975% | $9,214,683
NVDA | -($27,000,000) | 0.0011% | $2,554,571,200,000
Here are more current examples high to low:
BKSY | -($27,000,000) M | 412.8534% | $148,910,000 M
LUNR | -($480,837,000) M | 249.3259% | $192,854,800 M
RDW | -($241,886,000) M | 57.9939% | $417,088,800 M
* RKLB | -($667,786,000) M | 28.7716% | $2,320,993,800 B
PLTR | -($5,544,083,000) B | 10.5166% | $52,717,500,000 B
ASTS | -($209,392,000) M | 3.7593% | $2,990,676,000 B
GOOG | -($5,012,000,000) B | 0.2248% | $2,229,630,240,000 T
META | -($2,695,000,000) B | 0.2170% | $1,242,060,000,000 T
AMZN | -($3,598,000,000) B | 0.2073% | $1,735,867,500,000 T
MSTF | -($5,435,000,000) B | 0.1773% | $3,066,038,170,000 T
AAPL | -($4,339,000,000) B | 0.1285% | $3,376,193,342,400 T
TSLA | -($467,000,000) M | 0.0681% | $685,467,200,000 B
NVDA | -($27,000,000) M | 0.0011% | $2,554,571,200,000 T
-
It is a matter of how efficiently ALL companies use the money they borrow.
For example, All companies pay interest on DEBT; startups tend to skip paying principle, ACCUMULATING LOSS.
@@xshakespearex1 You might find this interesting. ALL stocks since IPO, startups AND mature, carry some SEC 10-K/Q line item ACCUMULATED LOSS.
The two low vs high extremes I find are Momentus MNTS, and Nvidia NVDA.:
stock | ACCUMULATED LOSS | % of mCap | Market Cap
MNTS | -($373,047,000) | 4048.3975% | $9,214,683
NVDA | -($27,000,000) | 0.0011% | $2,554,571,200,000
Here are more current examples high to low:
BKSY | -($27,000,000) M | 412.8534% | $148,910,000 M
LUNR | -($480,837,000) M | 249.3259% | $192,854,800 M
RDW | -($241,886,000) M | 57.9939% | $417,088,800 M
* RKLB | -($667,786,000) M | 28.7716% | $2,320,993,800 B
PLTR | -($5,544,083,000) B | 10.5166% | $52,717,500,000 B
ASTS | -($209,392,000) M | 3.7593% | $2,990,676,000 B
GOOG | -($5,012,000,000) B | 0.2248% | $2,229,630,240,000 T
META | -($2,695,000,000) B | 0.2170% | $1,242,060,000,000 T
AMZN | -($3,598,000,000) B | 0.2073% | $1,735,867,500,000 T
MSTF | -($5,435,000,000) B | 0.1773% | $3,066,038,170,000 T
AAPL | -($4,339,000,000) B | 0.1285% | $3,376,193,342,400 T
TSLA | -($467,000,000) M | 0.0681% | $685,467,200,000 B
NVDA | -($27,000,000) M | 0.0011% | $2,554,571,200,000 T
-
It is a matter of how efficiently ALL companies use the money they borrow.
For example, All companies pay interest on DEBT; startups tend to skip paying principle, ACCUMULATING LOSS.
@@xshakespearex1 You might find this interesting. ALL stocks since IPO, startups AND mature, carry some SEC 10-K/Q line item ACCUMULATED LOSS. The examples of low vs high extremes:
-
stock ACCUMULATED LOSS % of mCap Market Cap
MNTS -($373,047,000) M 4048.3975% $9,214,683 M not profitable
RKLB -($667,786,000) M 28.7716% $2,320,993,800 B not profitable
TSLA -($467,000,000) M 0.0681% $685,467,200,000 B profitable
NVDA -($27,000,000) M 0.0011% $2,554,571,200,000 T profitable
-
It is a matter of how efficiently ALL companies use the money they borrow.
For example, All companies pay interest on DEBT; startups tend to skip paying principle, ACCUMULATING LOSS.