How Does China Want the War in Ukraine to End? | The Foreign Affairs Interview
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- Опубликовано: 27 июл 2024
- Foreign Affairs invites you to listen to its podcast, the Foreign Affairs Interview. This episode with Bonny Lin and Alexander Gabuev was originally published on May 18, 2023.
This week, a top Chinese envoy is traveling across Europe, making stops in Ukraine and Russia. Beijing says that the purpose of the trip is to discuss a “political settlement” to the war. But this diplomatic push raises bigger questions not just about China’s attempt to position itself as a peacemaker but also about the growing closeness of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Bonny Lin is a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. She previously served in the Pentagon, including as country director for China. Alexander Gabuev is the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, based in Berlin, where he moved after leaving Moscow at the start of the war.
We discuss the relationship between Putin and Xi, how China has responded to the war in Ukraine, and whether China might provide Russia with lethal aid.
SOURCES FOR THIS EPISODE
“What’s Really Going on Between Russia and China” by Alexander Gabuev
www.foreignaffairs.com/united...
“China’s New Vassal” by Alexander Gabuev
www.foreignaffairs.com/china/...
“Can China Thread the Needle on Ukraine?” by Bonny Lin
www.foreignaffairs.com/china/...
“China’s Ukraine Crisis” by Jude Blanchette and Bonny Lin
www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...
“Beyond Ukraine’s Offensive” by Michael Kofman and Robert Lee
www.foreignaffairs.com/ukrain...
I have two takeaways from this conversation. The first is captured by your characterization of China as a “very lonely superpower” and the second about both Xi and Putin being “obsessed and angry” with the US. Let us consider these two subjects for a moment.
One should wonder why China should be such a “very lonely superpower.” It is indeed. The fact of the matter is that China is lonely because its geopolitical policies reveal a fundamentally aggressive stance. China appears to view itself as a hegemonic power. It appears to seek preponderant influence or authority over other countries. Note that it seems at one level or another fundamentally hostile to almost every significant neighbor country. Observe that it appears to have serious territorial disputes with India, Japan, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia. (Contrast this with the fact that the United States does not have any territorial disputes as serious as those of China. And no, Guantanamo Bay is not in the same range as the Senkaku Islands.) Note that China does not seem to be making any efforts to sort out this problem. It seems to approach each of these conflicts with a combination of intransigence, orneriness, and grievance. It seems less interested in making friends and allies in its neighborhood than projecting its hegemonic aspirations. Even China’s “friendship” with Putin seems informed by its hegemonic aspirations. Talk about China wanting Russia to become a “vassal” is indicative of this. Note that China does not have any longstanding allies in the same manner that the United States has. The US has various longstanding allies including the UK, France, the Netherlands, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada. These are nations that see real, long-term benefits in being allied with the US, who have a real desire to be “friendly” with the US. Fear plays a part in these relationships with the US but less of being aggressed against and more of losing the benefits. China does not seem to have that kind of relationship with any ally. (Maybe with North Korea as the single exception?) Note that China’s idea of becoming a global power seems to be to drive a wedge between Europe and the US, the West and Russia. It appears to see browbeating Australia as a way to demonstrate its power to its neighbors. It seems okay with initiating border skirmishes with a nuclear power (India). In China’s geostrategic thinking, these strategies are apparently more profitable than peacefully settling strategic disputes with neighboring countries and broadening and deepening mutually beneficial diplomatic, economic, and military relations with these countries. Showing genuine goodwill or soft competition as a way to “win” against the United States does not seem to come naturally to their international policy thinking.
Does China connect the fact that the neighboring countries feel threatened by its own stance with them seeking continued protection from and military cooperation with the US? From its policies we could deduce that it probably does not. No wonder the frustration, anger, and obsession. Yet, China (and Russia) have only themselves to blame for being lonely powers. The fact of the matter is that they do not deserve allies and friendly relationships. It is probably taboo to consider the real possibility that a leadership that in the essence sabotages its own foreign policy cannot be considered intelligent, competent, and mature. Thank you for this fine conversation.
Very interesting podcast. There is a question I have about Chinese intelligence. If the US intelligence was predicting accurately the invasion, what was Chinese intelligence telling Premier Xi? Surely if the Americans had this information, one would expect Chinese intelligence would have also.
If the rumours are true, Xi and Putin surround themselves with yes men who don't like delivering bad news. If Chinese agents are depending on Russians for useful information then they are systemically misinformed.
Thank you! Fascinating discussion.
China has a four thousand kilometre border with Russia. China needs a stable Russia in the north as well as a partner to manage the “Stan” countries in the west.
With all due respect to the speakers, their view of China-Russia relationship is a little naive and superficial. They seem to take everyone at their word! I honestly don’t know where there’s expertise in this assessment 🤔
This has been an informative conversation to listen to. Thanks.
These are astute observations. Russia got itself (and the rest of the world) into a jam, and China now has the upper hand in their relationship with Russia. I suspect that they fear that Russia will be beaten in this war - and it will look bad on them. But, if they can broker peace, their standing in the world will increase. They will also learn from Russia's mistakes, so that they will not risk being humiliated in an invasion of Taiwan (which would be a terrible blow to the economies of all involved).
What a terrific conversation & the theme music is super classy.
Thanks!
Excellent talk. Thank you.
thank you for this great information folks
Maybe Ukraine should change from Cyrillic alphabet to Latin alphabet for the Ukrainian language -- to further distinguish Ukraine as different from Russia, "De-russification", and make it more difficult for Russians to make the case that Ukraine is just another part of Russia.
Excellent stuff here
A very interesting insight into the connection that these two heads of state have. What to me is most telling of both authoritarian regimes is that they are very flawed men. Putin believed he could attack a free country while the western democracies would stand on the sideline and do very little. He totally believed his own generals that it would be over in less than a week. Premier Xi was conned into allowing Putin to go ahead thinking it would be a quick and easy victory and everything would settle down soon afterwards. Premier Xi I am sure knew about this Russian invasion well ahead of time and didn’t think it through. After all they have a lot of spy satellites in order to see it happening well ahead of time. Now Putin is in the shit and Premier Xi is dancing around everyone trying patch things up. The vertical of power from both of these countries are very second rate against the chaotic western system and very dangerous at the same time.
Thank you to the foreign affairs team. You are just what the whole world needs. Keep up the good work.
God, i want so much this to be intelligent and interesting.
It would be nice to interview people that they know what the heck they are talking about.
I'd be interested to know the figures of chinese living in Ukraine. For Xi to ' evacaute' ,
There are still many Chinese living and working in Ukraine.
Great!
China didn’t start this war but it’s definitely benefited from it.
Another example of just how no system is as good as those in the West even with the West's own failings. Dictatorship gets less viable as it ages.
You should read up on "democracy" in Ukraine - including: the opression of the Russian language (they will soon be the only state in the world to suppress the official use of a language spoken by such a large part of their own population); the replacement of statues/monuments to important cultural/historical figures (including people like Yuri Gagarin and Russian writers - the two countries have been together in some sense for much of their history) with those embarcing a wholey "Ukrainian" feel, including WW2 Nazi collaborators such as Bandera; destruction of books in Russian; the suppression of any media organisations not subject/aligned to the current government; no free reporting inside the country; jail sentences for anyone taking/sharing non-approved videos of - say the results of missile/drone strikes inside the country (we in the West get the curated versions, showing "intentional" Russian hits on civilian targets); the blocking of any males aged iirc (18-60) from leaving the country; forcible conscription into the army; widespread corruption (in February 2022, Ukraine was the second-worst country in all of Europe for state corruption (yes, worse than the Russian "dictatorship"). Throw in intangibles like they bomb civilian targets in the Donbass pretty much every day, lie about pretty much anything, even stupidly obvious stuff such as raids into Russia, that Ukrainian air defence missile that accidentally killed people in Poland, bombing the bridge leading to Crimea, their own casualty levels, shooting down virtually all missile/drone strikes, what thoise missiles that get through actually hit, you name it they will lie about it - the success rate is actually quite staggering. So, yeah, they are a "democracy"
.......Do Not forget TIBET...... Taiwan..... Hong Kong........
Word. China will likely be the main determinant in the outcome of the war at least in the short term. Kotkin has pointed out that it is more important for Ukraine to win the peace than the war. Mearsheimer has also noted the role of American imperial post-Cold War foreign policy in the current predicament.
North Atlantic Treaty Organization needs to recognize trillions of dollars, 40% of global trade through Bashi, Kashi or Taiwan straits by supporting something like Seas and Oceans Treaty Organization that secures all major trade routes, even Kazakhstan through Caspian. PRC China blockading Taiwan Strait could cut off shipping insurance and disrupt Canada's monopoly on potash exports to PRC China for example. ( Without potash your crops wither and your people die.) The good Han people need to know the series of Xi disasters and what's next. Foreign Affairs probably needs access to services like Spaceknow. Don't speculate, look!!!
First. (More later)
If you agree that the West should be punished for their invasions and war crimes and the NATO expansion, I would agree that Russia should be punished for its invasion into Ukraine. I feel very sorry for the Ukranian people that they have to fall victim to the US-led NATO imperialist expansion.