This guy vex me well well because this expert had the opportunity to really provide useful analysis and dropped the ball: • The raw numbers here is NOT the story, you have to consider the raw numbers as a percentage of GDP and also the percentage of diaspora population. Against a GDP of $404 billion and $77.5 respectively for Egypt and Ghana, expats for these countries are contributing the same ~16% of their GDP (Nigeria ~ 22%). However, against a local/expat population of 109 m/9m for Egypt and 33m/1m for Ghana, Ghana’s 3.2% expat populations is dramatically more impactful than Egypt’s 12%. Nigeria has a much smaller expat community 220m/1.6m, and this 0.7% is also more impactful than any other country. • The above also gives you clues on “Japa”. The question is not “how many” people have Japa'd but what percentage of your population. That's how you have to count if making a comparison. So it may surprise most to know that Nigerians Japa FAR LESS than either Ghana or Egypt! • There was a recent change in remit policy stating that you CANNOT receive money in Nigeria in dollars - only in Naira. So sir you are speaking the exact opposite of the reality on national tv. Even if this policy is still in motion, at least you should be aware and mention how it impacts the picture. • Capital imports are not foreigners “trying to help” Nigeria, rather foreigners INVESTING in Nigeria. Why does it matter here? Because it can be seen as an opportunity cost for Nigeria if we are outsourcing economic opportunities to foreigners. Plus why look from 2020 rather than the 10-year snapshot which obviously gives you stronger patterns (and thus stronger conclusions)? $20B in 2015, $20B in 2023… the story is actually stagnation in remittance inflows! • Finally, how can the insight be that remittances have a bigger role to play in our economy than capital inflows when you clearly see that it is not zero sum. In 2019, we received almost $21B in BOTH remittances and capital infows. So the insight is actually pulling both levers for optimal outcome. CHANNELS if you want me to come and add input, please let me know.
@@SpeakHearSeeNoEvil Thanks. Respectfully this analyst missed the mark on a couple of things. I look forward to his next appearance which I'm sure will be better
The best way to leverage on the opportunity presented by Nigerians in the diaspora, beyond ensuring that the dollar received is commensurate with the value on the black market, is for Nigeria foreign services in those countries to provide better services to Nigerians abroad. The biggest discouragement to diaspora inflows remain the poor treatment Nigerians in diaspora receive from Nigerian foreign services officials in those places. For example, when Nigerian passports expire it takes an awfully long time to get them renewed or reissued. Also, foreign services officials hardly provide free legal services, consultations or country advice for Nigerians. India, and Egypt do a much better job in that regard, no wonder those countries receive more inflows and yet Nigerians are the most educated and wealthiest members of the black community in many countries. The narrative needs to improve.
Babajide, I enjoy your analysis every time you present one. Great job ! well appreciated. Nigerians back home need to know these numbers very important for their awareness, education and appreciation of the contribution of those living abroad in assisting to uphold higher standard living in Nigeria. For me living abroad, I do not appreciate the use of the word “Japa” to describe anyone relocation for good causes. It sounds derogatory, I would rather for the Press to use UN legally recognized terms to address anyone relocating from one part of world to another in search of better pasture. People relocate for various reasons, while abroad they support their families back home and at the same improve the economy of their departed countries. I urge you to discourage the further use of this word in the media and public spaces. We deserve better treatment than we often received, considering the amount of wealth we ship back home year in year out.😮Show some love!
We don't even think far in Nigeria. Remittances aren't a dependable way to get forex. This is because the remittance from a person stops coming in when their dependents make it abroad, or pass away in the case of elderly parents.
This is not correct. Remittances are not just to direct family. Diaspora contributes to things like weddings, school fees, education, home maintenance, home buildings etc. for extended family as well. most of these don't come abroad. And if they did, the data suggests they will ALSO send to someone back home or contribute to a project (e.g., house) that develops the country. You're right in that it is not the ONLY way to focus on forex. We can't abandon export as well as Foreign Direct Investment. But I do think we can better exploit remittances. Most people who Japa are not using their skills in Nigeria anyway.
@@fistandpen2505 I agree with some of your points and examples. But more and more Nigerians are increasingly getting disinterested in investing their money in home-building projects in Nigeria, due to both the falling currency value, and of course, intra-family corruption. School fees have an even shorter tenure than subsistence for dependents (most kids graduate secondary school in 6 years, and university in 4). But all these aren't the main problems with depending on remittances. The main problem is that we can't directly affect people's appetite for sending money to Nigeria by enacting any policies or laws. E.g. we can't make a law that will encourage an increase in the amount a person sends home for their children's school fees, or their cousins' weddings. As you said, exports is where we should focus. Yes, most Nigerians who leave the country aren't using their skills here, but as Yorubas say, beheading isn't the solution to headaches. The solution is probably for the government and their partners to figure out ways to generate an inflow of investments that would boost productivity. With the world becoming a global village and most western countries becoming more tolerant, I see a future where most people who japa would be mostly disconnected permanently from the country - especially if they leave before developing any long term personal social ties. This is why we can't rely on remittances - at least not the way it is done today, which is mainly for subsistence. If we were to encourage diasporans to engage in the kind of entrepreneurship that could facilitate productivity, then definitely that would be a boon, long term.
Against a GDP of $3.16 Trillion, India's $125B is about 25% of its GDP only marginally more than Nigeria's 22%. At the same time we're achieving that result with less of our population, so we're a more impactful diaspora (although somewhat close) - our diaspora is 0.7% and India is 1.3% (17.9m people out of a 1.4B pop).
@@fistandpen2505who taught mathmatics in school dude??? According to IMF India's GDP 3.75tril$ in 2023 if remittance is 125biI$ that means it is 3.3% of India's GDP
This data is neither here nor there and it is full of flaws. This global remittances into Nigeria are so fictitious no one can tell accurately what financial institutions/sources the Fx inflows came into the country and how accurate such figures are. Think about it. $20billion is a lot of money and we are told this huge sum is remitted yearly, yet it has not led to any significant, remarkable increase in the value of the naira or the standard of living in the country. If we add the tens of $billions from oil and gas; the $billions from non fossil exports and the $billions from foreign investors, we should as a country be sitting on over $40 - $50billions of Fx inflows every year comfortably, maybe even more. Why has our standard of living never improved or been better? Why is it getting worse every year? 😫
Many travellers into Nigeria take money into the country and these are not recorded anywhere in the records of remittances.
And yet diasporans can not vote?
This guy vex me well well because this expert had the opportunity to really provide useful analysis and dropped the ball:
• The raw numbers here is NOT the story, you have to consider the raw numbers as a percentage of GDP and also the percentage of diaspora population. Against a GDP of $404 billion and $77.5 respectively for Egypt and Ghana, expats for these countries are contributing the same ~16% of their GDP (Nigeria ~ 22%). However, against a local/expat population of 109 m/9m for Egypt and 33m/1m for Ghana, Ghana’s 3.2% expat populations is dramatically more impactful than Egypt’s 12%. Nigeria has a much smaller expat community 220m/1.6m, and this 0.7% is also more impactful than any other country.
• The above also gives you clues on “Japa”. The question is not “how many” people have Japa'd but what percentage of your population. That's how you have to count if making a comparison. So it may surprise most to know that Nigerians Japa FAR LESS than either Ghana or Egypt!
• There was a recent change in remit policy stating that you CANNOT receive money in Nigeria in dollars - only in Naira. So sir you are speaking the exact opposite of the reality on national tv. Even if this policy is still in motion, at least you should be aware and mention how it impacts the picture.
• Capital imports are not foreigners “trying to help” Nigeria, rather foreigners INVESTING in Nigeria. Why does it matter here? Because it can be seen as an opportunity cost for Nigeria if we are outsourcing economic opportunities to foreigners. Plus why look from 2020 rather than the 10-year snapshot which obviously gives you stronger patterns (and thus stronger conclusions)? $20B in 2015, $20B in 2023… the story is actually stagnation in remittance inflows!
• Finally, how can the insight be that remittances have a bigger role to play in our economy than capital inflows when you clearly see that it is not zero sum. In 2019, we received almost $21B in BOTH remittances and capital infows. So the insight is actually pulling both levers for optimal outcome.
CHANNELS if you want me to come and add input, please let me know.
Spoken like a true data analyst. You should be on the show.
@@SpeakHearSeeNoEvil Thanks. Respectfully this analyst missed the mark on a couple of things. I look forward to his next appearance which I'm sure will be better
Obviously the expert is NOT an expert. The guy just came to have his 3mins of fame on television. 😂😅😂😊
Intelligent analysis
May God almighty bless Nigeria
Why?
The best way to leverage on the opportunity presented by Nigerians in the diaspora, beyond ensuring that the dollar received is commensurate with the value on the black market, is for Nigeria foreign services in those countries to provide better services to Nigerians abroad. The biggest discouragement to diaspora inflows remain the poor treatment Nigerians in diaspora receive from Nigerian foreign services officials in those places. For example, when Nigerian passports expire it takes an awfully long time to get them renewed or reissued. Also, foreign services officials hardly provide free legal services, consultations or country advice for Nigerians. India, and Egypt do a much better job in that regard, no wonder those countries receive more inflows and yet Nigerians are the most educated and wealthiest members of the black community in many countries. The narrative needs to improve.
I hope you're not one of those who believe that figure is accurate. $20billion remitted and yet the economy is none the better?..smh. 😑😌
Babajide, I enjoy your analysis every time you present one. Great job ! well appreciated.
Nigerians back home need to know these numbers very important for their awareness, education and appreciation of the contribution of those living abroad in assisting to uphold higher standard living in Nigeria. For me living abroad, I do not appreciate the use of the word “Japa” to describe anyone relocation for good causes. It sounds derogatory, I would rather for the Press to use UN legally recognized terms to address anyone relocating from one part of world to another in search of better pasture. People relocate for various reasons, while abroad they support their families back home and at the same improve the economy of their departed countries. I urge you to discourage the further use of this word in the media and public spaces. We deserve better treatment than we often received, considering the amount of wealth we ship back home year in year out.😮Show some love!
We don't even think far in Nigeria. Remittances aren't a dependable way to get forex. This is because the remittance from a person stops coming in when their dependents make it abroad, or pass away in the case of elderly parents.
This is not correct. Remittances are not just to direct family. Diaspora contributes to things like weddings, school fees, education, home maintenance, home buildings etc. for extended family as well. most of these don't come abroad. And if they did, the data suggests they will ALSO send to someone back home or contribute to a project (e.g., house) that develops the country. You're right in that it is not the ONLY way to focus on forex. We can't abandon export as well as Foreign Direct Investment. But I do think we can better exploit remittances. Most people who Japa are not using their skills in Nigeria anyway.
@@fistandpen2505 I agree with some of your points and examples. But more and more Nigerians are increasingly getting disinterested in investing their money in home-building projects in Nigeria, due to both the falling currency value, and of course, intra-family corruption. School fees have an even shorter tenure than subsistence for dependents (most kids graduate secondary school in 6 years, and university in 4). But all these aren't the main problems with depending on remittances. The main problem is that we can't directly affect people's appetite for sending money to Nigeria by enacting any policies or laws. E.g. we can't make a law that will encourage an increase in the amount a person sends home for their children's school fees, or their cousins' weddings. As you said, exports is where we should focus. Yes, most Nigerians who leave the country aren't using their skills here, but as Yorubas say, beheading isn't the solution to headaches. The solution is probably for the government and their partners to figure out ways to generate an inflow of investments that would boost productivity. With the world becoming a global village and most western countries becoming more tolerant, I see a future where most people who japa would be mostly disconnected permanently from the country - especially if they leave before developing any long term personal social ties. This is why we can't rely on remittances - at least not the way it is done today, which is mainly for subsistence. If we were to encourage diasporans to engage in the kind of entrepreneurship that could facilitate productivity, then definitely that would be a boon, long term.
Most remittances are paid in naira
No surprised fir India they help and support them selves in diaspora
Against a GDP of $3.16 Trillion, India's $125B is about 25% of its GDP only marginally more than Nigeria's 22%. At the same time we're achieving that result with less of our population, so we're a more impactful diaspora (although somewhat close) - our diaspora is 0.7% and India is 1.3% (17.9m people out of a 1.4B pop).
They are more than 1 billion of course they are the first.
@@fistandpen2505who taught mathmatics in school dude??? According to IMF India's GDP 3.75tril$ in 2023 if remittance is 125biI$ that means it is 3.3% of India's GDP
@@Slayer123-g6v shut up. since you are so smart how about you take time and lay it out for each region like i did and speak on the central point made
@@fistandpen2505 I spoke truth please check your brain dude?? Yur data abt nigeria also nt apt
This data is neither here nor there and it is full of flaws. This global remittances into Nigeria are so fictitious no one can tell accurately what financial institutions/sources the Fx inflows came into the country and how accurate such figures are.
Think about it. $20billion is a lot of money and we are told this huge sum is remitted yearly, yet it has not led to any significant, remarkable increase in the value of the naira or the standard of living in the country. If we add the tens of $billions from oil and gas; the $billions from non fossil exports and the $billions from foreign investors, we should as a country be sitting on over $40 - $50billions of Fx inflows every year comfortably, maybe even more. Why has our standard of living never improved or been better? Why is it getting worse every year? 😫
Your standard of living is in the pockets of your senators and other politicians.
When this guy paused to wish all women Mother’s Day because it’s on a Sunday, I just knew he is an olodo and was going to talk nonsense.