@@Michael-gi5th definitely you do, and I do believe it is useful day of, because it compiles different aspects like helicity and instability. To be more specific snd less like an a-hole like my original comment HAHA, I think what is more useful is looking at those parameters individually, and what is occuring right now synoptically to bring this event to unfold. If you have the bigger picture, you will see more and understand the event more, like what is happening such that day of, there will be a higher tor potential? Frontal speed? Forcing? Hodograph shape? Shear? Shear vectors in conjunction to forcing? sigtor parameter is ok, but it is not the end all/be all for an event at all.
This was a really great forecast. I have just found your channel and I am learning a lot already about forecasting. Thank you so much and I am going to continue to watch these educational videos.
You just earned a new subscriber. Your forecasting for this setup was really good. Tomorrow I will definitely be checking radar and velocity signatures all day!
Maybe the next time the weather dies down a little you could do a video explaining the spc threat levels. I know I'd be fascinated to listen to it. Almost always seems to be a topic near these bigger events.
Hello early Spring I guess. I mean I guess we can say that with how wild the pattern is setting up now and down the road coming. I mean these are classic Spring patterns and I can kind of say we are out of the Winter off-season.......which wasn't one with the 16 strong events which is nuts and we are so above avg for tornadoes already. This set up though is probably gonna be the top event so far for 2023 and last 5 months and it's not even close. This set up is so beyond prime I can see this produce like 5 strong EF3 tornadoes cause man...look at the shear and instability with this system folks. This is wild stuff. There's all this talk of "oh it will be high risk" or "HIGH RISK INCOMING"......I COULD see it issued but I don't think so. It will be close but I think right now they would need just a bit more confidence to truly go high. I mean yes there will be strong tornadoes but if I remember right they only usually go high when it's a "all hell will break loose event" where pretty much all tornadoes will be EF2 and higher that form. Well I mean that's how I usually have always seen the high risk being issued. I think this is just gonna be borderline but they could have a small high on the TX/AR border. I think what people aren't talking about Trey is this MDT risk and tornadoes are once again gonna be in the worst spot possible in the U.S......the radar hole that is in the right in that region. I mean I think pretty much we will see the NWS offices issue tornado warnings on a lot of storms cause they may want to play it safe with the radar hole on storms and not exactly having the ground truth....but better to play it safe case radar can only go to the 4000 ft level and that's it. D: I tell you one thing....no way in hell would I chase this event down there with also the trees and stuff. Wait we saw this before in December I think with the MDT in this area too and it was chase hell trying to get video from people cause of all the trees. Best videos were from house cameras but we will see on this event. Also to touch on that Friday event that will be curious cause that system would still be strong and all about if we can get more discrete storms ahead of the main line that would form later. The tornado risk is gonna be interesting but I think while it will be more winds and such I think there's been a slow uptick in the tornado chances the last 24 hours.
I forecasted a severe thunderstorm event in the Middle East back in 2002 based on the minor, sw trof coming through. Those things can definitely kick stuff off, which is why you have to pay attention to the mid-levels.
Thanks for the great video as always. Trying to emphasize to my sister in AR how bad this could possibly be on Thursday. Looks like I’ll get whatever’s left here in GA on Friday.
Hey, love the videos! A guy from the SPC put out a really interesting Twitter thread regarding how the SPC issues high risks, and how they usually deviate from the 'official' definitions of MDT and HIGH since there is a messaging discrepancy. I'd love to hear your thoughts on that whole situation
Thank you! I saw that thread…really awesome discussion. I really agree with the part about how high risks elicit the most significant reaction from meteorologists, the public, etc., and that’s the way it should be. High risks are reserved for the most upper echelon of events; if they were to be issued frequently, they’d lose their effectiveness. I think there probably do need to be some tweaks in how High risk is defined for non-tornadic hazards; he’s right in that the threat to life from straight line wind is just not as significant as from tornadoes.
Thanks as always for the very thorough and interesting discussion. I have definitely learned a lot since discovering your channel. Your videos are great for someone like me that is more than a casual enthusiast but less than a professional. As an Alaskan, where severe weather (other than heavy rain and snow events) are super rare, it's easy to get excited for large outbreaks and forget about the real human impact. I hope if there are major tornadoes in this event they tear their way through an open field. Anyway, thanks again
Although the category that is issued by the spc doesn’t matter when determining the outcome of severe weather events, In the back of my mind I am still always thinking “when will the next high risk be”
Great video, Trey! I got close eyes on my family up in DFW the next couple days. Fortunately the tornado threat is likely going to be east of them, but there's absolutely going to be enough instability and shear that the discrete mode before the cold front tomorrow is still dangerous. Down here in Central Texas, we're only under the "slight" area, but the HRRR is showing the line breaking into many discrete segments as it moves through the I-35 corridor and that concerns me a bit as that's when low-level shear will be ramping up down here. Overall, between this past Sunday and this event, it really looks like we're kicking off the storm season with a bang. The overall weather patterns are fairly erratic with some substantial wind profiles in most of these storms. I'm hoping that we can live in a nice happy world where storm chasers can see some great, open-field photogenic tornadoes that impact absolutely no one's lives, but if Houston a few weeks ago and Norman this week are a sign of what's to come, I'm not looking forward to the nado conditions ramping up over the next month or two.
Thank you! I’d definitely keep an eye out in central TX tomorrow; the more potent ingredients are off to your north, but I could easily see an all hazards threat for you as the frontal convection moves through. It’s been a super active start to the season; I have reason to believe this might last into spring, but it’s always hard to tell at this range.
@@ConvectiveChroniclesDFW had the most impressive hodograph I think trey, looked like the srh was around 300, I was using rap, early morning convection in DFW might just lay out a strong cold pool for the late afternoon storms
So worried about Thursday since I have to be out in fort worth (and even at home I just live in a trailer and as a full time wheelchair user I can't go into shelters or anything so idk what to do 😭)... PLUS to top it off tomorrow is my birthday
Hopefully the worst misses you and you have an uneventful birthday weatherwise…happy birthday! Just keep an eye out when you’re out and about, and if severe weather approaches, get into the nearest sturdy building you can find to ride it out.
Models are clearly trending slower for Friday. What do you think about East Alabama/West Ga? It seems as though due to the projected slower system, storms should be intensifying as they move across Alabama Friday morning into GA during the early afternoon. All of the parameters look pretty elevated. Realistically though, what limiting factors do you see? I can see most of the lapse rates aren't especially steep maybe tempering updraft strength. Yet synoptics/especially wind fields look favorable for maybe a significant severe threat dependent on storm mode? I'm more curious as to how much wind potential the line along the front will have during the afternoon Friday?
I’m still not sure what to think for that area Friday. On one hand, the trough definitely looks to pull away, which could allow the convective line to slow down and a larger warm sector to develop ahead of it for potential prefrontal stuff. On the other hand, instability looks pretty limited, which like you said would temper updraft robustness. But the shear profiles are really strong, especially in the late morning/early afternoon, and you don’t need much instability with profiles like that. Just kind of a wait and see type scenario at this point, but if discrete storms do develop ahead of the line, we could see some significant stuff. The line definitely could have some damaging wind potential along it, especially if the instability is more robust than expected.
Basically, rotating updrafts are stronger and can keep hail stones in the upper reaches of the storm longer, which can allow hail to grow to larger sizes.
Plenty of VBV profiles are a concern for a more widespread supercell tornado outbreak. Messy storm mode and eventual QLCS storm mode with some embedded tornadoes should be the primary threat.
Definitely along the dryline/cold front…farther east along the warm front, storms may be a little messy as well, but any more discrete updrafts will have a sig tor threat with a little less mid-level backing.
Thank you for the updates, really love the videos! So if you have divergence in the atmosphere, would the vacuum effect you talked about increase the cape values? My current thinking is that in a scenario in which you don’t have that much cape, or you are being affected by a cap, could the vacuum effect of the divergence cause enough forcing to get the rising air parcels to break through the cap? I could be completely wrong, but it has interested me.
Thank you! So the divergence aloft and associated rising motion is typically not enough to initiate storms on their own. You need some sort of focused ascent (from a frontal boundary, dryline, etc.) to actually get storms to form. It is not directly associated to the instability within an environment.
I know you have mentioned this in previous case studies about the storms the day before leaving outflow boundaries/gravity waves behind that can increase the threat. Do you think thats a possibility since the events are so close in time?
I won't explain, convective chronicles does a Hella job, but his terminology would change instead of using significant, we would say example long track, or strong to violent tornadoes, keywords like that
The hodograph is impressive, but you typically see them a few times a year. The super outbreak had a much broader warm sector and area where STP values were maxed. This was partially due to the much larger trough which didn’t progress as quickly, leaving ample time for multiple rounds of convective bands in the morning and discrete cells well ahead of the front in the afternoon. While I agree tomorrow will be significant, this event has nothing on April 27th. 🤓
@@DSGB2199 while I still have a ton to learn, I’ve really improved my forecasting from treys page… he does a fantastic job! I’ve also studied that event for years. I was 15 at the time and it really fascinated me. It’s the reason I became a severe weather enthusiast.
@@markdaniel6053 from what I understand, that’s a much more common scenario/set up during the “winter season” while temperatures are lower. We’re just starting to see these cape values increase. Maybe I’m bias, but I think this year could be big.
Thursday is scary, it checks off so many parameters needed for a memorable outbreak
Not the March Madness we wanted
Significant tornado parameter looks decent for arkansas only, everywhere else the sig tor is low from what I see on the NAM chart
@@Michael-gi5th sigtor parameter is not a good parameter to use to forecast.
@@nickdavis965 yeah I wonder though would you not need a sig tor parameter for a significant tornado
@@Michael-gi5th definitely you do, and I do believe it is useful day of, because it compiles different aspects like helicity and instability. To be more specific snd less like an a-hole like my original comment HAHA, I think what is more useful is looking at those parameters individually, and what is occuring right now synoptically to bring this event to unfold. If you have the bigger picture, you will see more and understand the event more, like what is happening such that day of, there will be a higher tor potential? Frontal speed? Forcing? Hodograph shape? Shear? Shear vectors in conjunction to forcing? sigtor parameter is ok, but it is not the end all/be all for an event at all.
This was a really great forecast. I have just found your channel and I am learning a lot already about forecasting. Thank you so much and I am going to continue to watch these educational videos.
Thank you so much for the kind words!
Today's been upgraded now and includes a hatched 10% tornado zone. 🙏for everyone there these next couple of days.
You just earned a new subscriber. Your forecasting for this setup was really good. Tomorrow I will definitely be checking radar and velocity signatures all day!
Thank you so much!
Maybe the next time the weather dies down a little you could do a video explaining the spc threat levels. I know I'd be fascinated to listen to it. Almost always seems to be a topic near these bigger events.
That’s a great idea; I will add it to my list!
@@ConvectiveChronicles 🐐🐐🐐🐐
Hello early Spring I guess. I mean I guess we can say that with how wild the pattern is setting up now and down the road coming. I mean these are classic Spring patterns and I can kind of say we are out of the Winter off-season.......which wasn't one with the 16 strong events which is nuts and we are so above avg for tornadoes already. This set up though is probably gonna be the top event so far for 2023 and last 5 months and it's not even close. This set up is so beyond prime I can see this produce like 5 strong EF3 tornadoes cause man...look at the shear and instability with this system folks. This is wild stuff.
There's all this talk of "oh it will be high risk" or "HIGH RISK INCOMING"......I COULD see it issued but I don't think so. It will be close but I think right now they would need just a bit more confidence to truly go high. I mean yes there will be strong tornadoes but if I remember right they only usually go high when it's a "all hell will break loose event" where pretty much all tornadoes will be EF2 and higher that form. Well I mean that's how I usually have always seen the high risk being issued. I think this is just gonna be borderline but they could have a small high on the TX/AR border. I think what people aren't talking about Trey is this MDT risk and tornadoes are once again gonna be in the worst spot possible in the U.S......the radar hole that is in the right in that region. I mean I think pretty much we will see the NWS offices issue tornado warnings on a lot of storms cause they may want to play it safe with the radar hole on storms and not exactly having the ground truth....but better to play it safe case radar can only go to the 4000 ft level and that's it. D:
I tell you one thing....no way in hell would I chase this event down there with also the trees and stuff. Wait we saw this before in December I think with the MDT in this area too and it was chase hell trying to get video from people cause of all the trees. Best videos were from house cameras but we will see on this event.
Also to touch on that Friday event that will be curious cause that system would still be strong and all about if we can get more discrete storms ahead of the main line that would form later. The tornado risk is gonna be interesting but I think while it will be more winds and such I think there's been a slow uptick in the tornado chances the last 24 hours.
I enjoy your videos. Thanks for the analysis. You break it down for the non weather person
Thank you!
was glad to see you made it out relatively unscathed in Norman the other day! keep up the great work!
Thank you!
I forecasted a severe thunderstorm event in the Middle East back in 2002 based on the minor, sw trof coming through. Those things can definitely kick stuff off, which is why you have to pay attention to the mid-levels.
Many of the lead, more subtle, shortwaves are more prolific tornado producers than the larger parent wave that moves out the next day.
Thursday if like what you say with the storms in the morning may lay out some boundaries for the storms in the afternoon.
I look forward every event to see your analysis. I wish I could travel more often.
Thank you!
Thanks for the great video as always. Trying to emphasize to my sister in AR how bad this could possibly be on Thursday. Looks like I’ll get whatever’s left here in GA on Friday.
Could be bad around Atlanta too
Thank you! I’d definitely keep an eye out; it could get interesting both in Arkansas and in Georgia on Friday.
Oh man, prayers and good thoughts for anyone in the path. Please be safe.
Hey, love the videos! A guy from the SPC put out a really interesting Twitter thread regarding how the SPC issues high risks, and how they usually deviate from the 'official' definitions of MDT and HIGH since there is a messaging discrepancy. I'd love to hear your thoughts on that whole situation
Thank you! I saw that thread…really awesome discussion. I really agree with the part about how high risks elicit the most significant reaction from meteorologists, the public, etc., and that’s the way it should be. High risks are reserved for the most upper echelon of events; if they were to be issued frequently, they’d lose their effectiveness. I think there probably do need to be some tweaks in how High risk is defined for non-tornadic hazards; he’s right in that the threat to life from straight line wind is just not as significant as from tornadoes.
Where can I find this thread?
@@peytonb5591 I think it's from Evan Bentley on something like that from the SPC, awesome thread
local spotter report out of Desoto TX they had half dollar size hail
Looking good from dfw to east I’m getting excited
As a weather enthusiast I am very interested to see how this event unfolds. Also do you think there is a chance at a high risk?
Right now, I don't think so, but it's definitely still on the table.
@@ConvectiveChronicleshow come?
@@WatchingTheSkiesYTcrapvection
@@brockstanton9558 ah
Thanks as always for the very thorough and interesting discussion. I have definitely learned a lot since discovering your channel. Your videos are great for someone like me that is more than a casual enthusiast but less than a professional. As an Alaskan, where severe weather (other than heavy rain and snow events) are super rare, it's easy to get excited for large outbreaks and forget about the real human impact. I hope if there are major tornadoes in this event they tear their way through an open field. Anyway, thanks again
Thank you for the kind words! Happy to hear the videos have been helpful for you.
Although the category that is issued by the spc doesn’t matter when determining the outcome of severe weather events, In the back of my mind I am still always thinking “when will the next high risk be”
If this was in April, might actually be
Just found your channel & wow! I love learning about meteorology, & enjoy your explanations... I'm now subscribed!!
Thank you so much!
Great video, Trey! I got close eyes on my family up in DFW the next couple days. Fortunately the tornado threat is likely going to be east of them, but there's absolutely going to be enough instability and shear that the discrete mode before the cold front tomorrow is still dangerous. Down here in Central Texas, we're only under the "slight" area, but the HRRR is showing the line breaking into many discrete segments as it moves through the I-35 corridor and that concerns me a bit as that's when low-level shear will be ramping up down here.
Overall, between this past Sunday and this event, it really looks like we're kicking off the storm season with a bang. The overall weather patterns are fairly erratic with some substantial wind profiles in most of these storms. I'm hoping that we can live in a nice happy world where storm chasers can see some great, open-field photogenic tornadoes that impact absolutely no one's lives, but if Houston a few weeks ago and Norman this week are a sign of what's to come, I'm not looking forward to the nado conditions ramping up over the next month or two.
Thank you! I’d definitely keep an eye out in central TX tomorrow; the more potent ingredients are off to your north, but I could easily see an all hazards threat for you as the frontal convection moves through. It’s been a super active start to the season; I have reason to believe this might last into spring, but it’s always hard to tell at this range.
@@ConvectiveChroniclesDFW had the most impressive hodograph I think trey, looked like the srh was around 300, I was using rap, early morning convection in DFW might just lay out a strong cold pool for the late afternoon storms
I have a flight on Friday morning from Atlanta --- is the risk enough that I should consider cancelling?
I would not cancel if you’re heading out Friday morning, you should be good.
I appreciate the video Trey!
Of course! Thank you for watching!
"Dallas on the outside looking in..." lol
that seems to be when we get it right in the shorts...
thanks for the breakdown sir...
Thank you for watching! Yeah, DFW is technically not in the MDT, but I’d prepare like it is. Severe storms are likely one way or another.
In my opinion we could have a pretty memorable tornado outbreak tomorrow, do you agree??
I was about to say that. Tomorrow's tornado outbreak could be historic
I’m not seeing a widespread outbreak given storm mode concerns, among others. But we could see a few strong tornadoes across the region.
@@ConvectiveChronicles me either with storm mode concerns, but if we get multiple rounds of desecrate supercells…
So worried about Thursday since I have to be out in fort worth (and even at home I just live in a trailer and as a full time wheelchair user I can't go into shelters or anything so idk what to do 😭)... PLUS to top it off tomorrow is my birthday
Hopefully the worst misses you and you have an uneventful birthday weatherwise…happy birthday! Just keep an eye out when you’re out and about, and if severe weather approaches, get into the nearest sturdy building you can find to ride it out.
@@ConvectiveChronicles thank you!!
i want to live... my bd is the 14th so, please no tornado in east central ms... Mother Nature please take a chill pill
Models are clearly trending slower for Friday. What do you think about East Alabama/West Ga? It seems as though due to the projected slower system, storms should be intensifying as they move across Alabama Friday morning into GA during the early afternoon. All of the parameters look pretty elevated. Realistically though, what limiting factors do you see? I can see most of the lapse rates aren't especially steep maybe tempering updraft strength. Yet synoptics/especially wind fields look favorable for maybe a significant severe threat dependent on storm mode? I'm more curious as to how much wind potential the line along the front will have during the afternoon Friday?
I’m still not sure what to think for that area Friday. On one hand, the trough definitely looks to pull away, which could allow the convective line to slow down and a larger warm sector to develop ahead of it for potential prefrontal stuff. On the other hand, instability looks pretty limited, which like you said would temper updraft robustness. But the shear profiles are really strong, especially in the late morning/early afternoon, and you don’t need much instability with profiles like that. Just kind of a wait and see type scenario at this point, but if discrete storms do develop ahead of the line, we could see some significant stuff. The line definitely could have some damaging wind potential along it, especially if the instability is more robust than expected.
Thanks! As always, great insight, explanation and video.
I appreciate it; thank you!
low level jet has increased and has shifted into my area NWTN...
why is it that the updrafts need to be rotating to cause large hail?
Basically, rotating updrafts are stronger and can keep hail stones in the upper reaches of the storm longer, which can allow hail to grow to larger sizes.
Plenty of VBV profiles are a concern for a more widespread supercell tornado outbreak. Messy storm mode and eventual QLCS storm mode with some embedded tornadoes should be the primary threat.
Definitely along the dryline/cold front…farther east along the warm front, storms may be a little messy as well, but any more discrete updrafts will have a sig tor threat with a little less mid-level backing.
Thank you for the updates, really love the videos!
So if you have divergence in the atmosphere, would the vacuum effect you talked about increase the cape values? My current thinking is that in a scenario in which you don’t have that much cape, or you are being affected by a cap, could the vacuum effect of the divergence cause enough forcing to get the rising air parcels to break through the cap? I could be completely wrong, but it has interested me.
Thank you! So the divergence aloft and associated rising motion is typically not enough to initiate storms on their own. You need some sort of focused ascent (from a frontal boundary, dryline, etc.) to actually get storms to form. It is not directly associated to the instability within an environment.
@@ConvectiveChronicles Thank you so much for that :)
Well hell I’m in San Antonio and kinda nervous now 😅
As long as you have a plan, you’ll be good!
There's no way that folks in Arkadelphia can feel comfortable seeing this unfold on March 1-2. Hopefully this isn't as bad as '97.
the tornado risk today got upgraded
Yep, posted about it on the community page on the channel
@@ConvectiveChronicles im worried about friday since i live in the risk area so i hope its not to bad friday
Friday’s still up in the air. Conditional threat for some significant severe weather but for now there are some caveats that might keep things at bay.
@@ConvectiveChronicles as along as there is no big hail or tornado's im cool
I know you have mentioned this in previous case studies about the storms the day before leaving outflow boundaries/gravity waves behind that can increase the threat. Do you think thats a possibility since the events are so close in time?
It’s possible, although I’m not sure if it would make much difference tomorrow. The strong southerly flow we’ll see tomorrow might wash it out.
@Convective Chronicles Gotcha. Just was curious. Thanks for answering. Keep up the good work with these videos.
severe thunderstorm watch out for DFW
Yes, that’ll end soon. Could be reissued farther east.
7 million in it!
this will be a historic outbreak like Mayfield and dresden???..
Wouldn’t go that far yet.
@@ConvectiveChronicles SPC gonna go high risk???...
I won't explain, convective chronicles does a Hella job, but his terminology would change instead of using significant, we would say example long track, or strong to violent tornadoes, keywords like that
But those sneaky supercells sometimes hit a certain Meso feature and at anytime can produce a rare event
We won’t know until it’s over or it’s happening
How do I get the 48 hour hrrr on COD website?!
Choose the 00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z HRRR runs.
@@markdaniel6053 wouldn’t that only go out 18 hours though?! Is it because I’m on my phone🤔
@@pianomanforlife7 Not sure. Using a PC here. All those runs go out 48 hours from their corresponding run times for me.
The only HRRR runs that go out 48 hours are the 12z, 18z, 00z, and 06z runs.
3:32 imbedded what?
Perturbations (little shortwaves)
@@ConvectiveChronicles a new glossary term to look up! I love it! Thanks
I know the cape is low for georgia friday but i havent seen a looped graph like that since april 27th…
The hodograph is impressive, but you typically see them a few times a year. The super outbreak had a much broader warm sector and area where STP values were maxed. This was partially due to the much larger trough which didn’t progress as quickly, leaving ample time for multiple rounds of convective bands in the morning and discrete cells well ahead of the front in the afternoon. While I agree tomorrow will be significant, this event has nothing on April 27th. 🤓
Low cape, high helicity FTW so far this year.
@@pianomanforlife7 yeah for sure i was hoping someone with knowledge would chime in thanks.
@@DSGB2199 while I still have a ton to learn, I’ve really improved my forecasting from treys page… he does a fantastic job! I’ve also studied that event for years. I was 15 at the time and it really fascinated me. It’s the reason I became a severe weather enthusiast.
@@markdaniel6053 from what I understand, that’s a much more common scenario/set up during the “winter season” while temperatures are lower. We’re just starting to see these cape values increase. Maybe I’m bias, but I think this year could be big.
Day one is now enh with 10 sig tornado threat
Wow really?!
Yup