I heard that the problem with Chinese housing is that rather than it being a problem in consumption is that it was one of the few ways people could invest, so they bought multiple houses per household. So at this point there are way more houses than would ever be needed, especially as the demographics continue to worsen. Leaving them all with massive debts and useless property, so I suppose it is more likely a reason for consumption staying low rather than being a problem due to low consumption. But I'm just some guy on the internet, look for a more credible source to get the details.
You're probably the only "guy on the internet" apart from myself who heard that as well & understood it. The thing is though, that the Chinese economy is managed to stop it crashing. Because of the checks & balances that creates it's unlikely to crash like a western economy. A lot of western minds just don't understand that concept, including the guys at TLDR news.
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In "multiple houses per household", you mean multiple = thousands. The header of the Jinzhou district of the city of Dalian, for example, was found holding 2714 sets of apartments (in China, almost all commercial housing are apartments)
I too am a guy on the internet who has noticed lots of ads targeting Chinese buy-to-let investors showing the benefits of putting their money in property around the world for higher returns. It could explain some of the impact on China plus appears to be a way to spread boom and bust property market around the world. Oh joy.
Very fast ageing population coupled with very high youth unemployment rate. It is difficult to understand unless there's a big crisis in demand and lots of overinvestment in very unproductive enterprises.
I'm a Chinese. I think companies in China are not safe as they lack healthy free market environments, companies' owners never know when the government will intervene in their business, therefore, they're restrained in development. The government uses low tax rates and neglects workers' rights to counterbalance the restrain, which leads employees staying in bad economic conditions so they can't consume a lot. This method can not work anymore. People used to ignore workers' rights as GDP grew quickly, but now they can't continue to be like that because it's not only against human rights but also harmful to economy.
I think we can see from the COVID response... well... the ones after the world cup... that was a Chernobyl event politically... along with the apartment fire...
China has a lot of economy to work with, the size is huge. They'll rebound even if there's a crisis, just like any other major economy. I do think that domestic consumption needs to grow though. Maybe they can create a legislative framework so that poor people can have a few things guaranteed: a stable life and not worrying about debt if they are working and a minimum of take home cash. The minimum should be like one cheap car a year, or a couple iphones a year, or a full 99 year housing lease every 15 years or so. Maybe they can even direct their consumption force toward their national goals like building up their national electronic chip manufacturing
@@ayoCC I agree with your opinions. They have taken advantage of cheap labor for too long and don't want to take risk for giving it up. This will benefit for the long run but GDP might decrease for few years, and decrease of GDP may cause political instability which is the least thing CCP wants to face.
@@ziyu8061 i think a viable strategy might be forcing that "cheap labour force" into specific zones. And they could test out a Government sanctioned version of workers unions, after all this time of suppressing wages. They must always be loyal to the central government, but aside from that they are allowed to use all tools a regular union could use to negotiate against their employers, to make sure they receive freedoms that were put aside for no good reason other than tyranny. The mentality of letting people have freedoms that cost nothing and do no one any harm could maybe also go into other aspects of the daily life maybe.
I remember when I found out how much my Chinese coworkers were getting paid. I was ready to strike for them. During covid every foreigner got a free 7k rmb bonus and they gloated to our Chinese coworkers about it. Meanwhile our Chinese coworkers had wages slashed. It got to a point where I would make bets that i would intentionally lose to give coworkers some money.
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It's not a forecast, it's a directive. The central committee sets a growth target and local authorities either deliver or face Beijing's wrath. So they take out massive loans, build a highway from an empty field to an abandoned mine, build a bridge to nowhere, and *BOOM* economic activity: Mission accomplished. Just don't think about next year's budget too much.
BUT SIR MY INDIA IS THE REAL SUPERPOWER NUMBER ONE🤗🇮🇳 WE HAVE THE BEST INFRASTRUCTURE AND HIGHSPEED RAIL 🤗🇮🇳 MEANWHILE IN CHINA PEOPLE STILL RIDE RICKSHAW EVERYWHERE AND THEY ALSO POOR DONT HAVE CAR . THIS WHY IM SO LUCKY LIVE IN SUPER INDIA THE CLEANEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD 🇮🇳🤗 , WE NEVER SCAM! WE GIVE RESPECT TO ALL WOMEN THEY CAN WALK SAFELY ALONE AT NIGHT AND WE HAVE CLEAN FOOD AND TOILET EVERYWHERE 🇮🇳🤗🚽, I KNOW MANY POOR PEOPLE JEALOUS WITH SUPER RICH INDIA 🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳
@@indiasuperclean6969but poverty is everywhere in your country. Your numbers as a country show that you're a superpower,but indian citizens have a bad quality of life
The IMF expects realistically 0% economic growth. And it is actually negative for 2023. Last year the GDP of China was 17.9 trillion. This year it is expected to be 17.7 trillion. This is because while the Chinese economy grew in yuan terms the value of these yuans became lower relative to the USD.
Given that the Q3 2023 for China is out it is unrealistic to expect the Chinese GDP to break 18 trillion USD. So IMF's estimation is pretty believable. This means that the Chinese economy effectively grew by 0% from 2021 to 2023. Tho looking at IMF's Economic Outlook they still expect the Chinese economy from 2024 to 2028 to grow with similar size to the US economy. Given the US economy is bigger this means the IMF suggests higher real GDP growth for China.
@@ulikemyname6744 It is not unreasonable to expect the Chinese economy to grow slightly faster than the US economy. It should be mentioned that the US economy performed very well in the last 2 years when it comes to growth. A lot of new projetcts and investments are happening currently. We can assume that the IMF is underestimating the US economy but times are such that nobody can predict what would happen tomorrow
@@ulikemyname6744 Chinese economy is growing at 5.5% this year. American at 1.2%, Canada 0.8% Europe average 1% and Germany is in deep recession. Are you an economist? How can you say Chinese economy will grow similar to American economy while China was never less than 5% in the last 25 years? Moreover they had 14 years of growth of 10-12% out of the last 25.
@@DK-ev9dg Then how do you explain that in 2021 the Chinese economy was 17.7 trillion, in 2022 the economy was 17.9 trillion and now it is expected to be once again 17.7 trillion. So we are talking about in both years the economy growing by 5-6% and yet it stays at the same place as in 2021. As the other guy said the Chinese economy is growing in yuan terms. The problem is that yuan is losing its value. Therefore when you convert it in USD the economy seems as it never really grew. Thus it is losing its value.
I'll say it here and ill say it again, wolf warrior diplomacy has been a disaster for China, foreign direct investment which would've sucked up on the overabundance of highly skilled workers have slowed down and uven reversed, trying to pull out af the country, and created an atmosphere of protectionism especially against China in politically palatable and economically tolerable
BUT SIR MY INDIA IS THE REAL SUPERPOWER NUMBER ONE🤗🇮🇳 WE HAVE THE BEST INFRASTRUCTURE AND HIGHSPEED RAIL 🤗🇮🇳 MEANWHILE IN CHINA PEOPLE STILL RIDE RICKSHAW EVERYWHERE AND THEY ALSO POOR DONT HAVE CAR . THIS WHY IM SO LUCKY LIVE IN SUPER INDIA THE CLEANEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD 🇮🇳🤗 , WE NEVER SCAM! WE GIVE RESPECT TO ALL WOMEN THEY CAN WALK SAFELY ALONE AT NIGHT AND WE HAVE CLEAN FOOD AND TOILET EVERYWHERE 🇮🇳🤗🚽, I KNOW MANY POOR PEOPLE JEALOUS WITH SUPER RICH INDIA 🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳
True, many businesses now view China as a risk - they could be caught in the middle of a diplomatic spate and be used to punish their home country. Everyone saw how Australian businesses were screwed over all because the then Australian PM [Scott Morrison aka Scotty from Marketing] made a stupid suggestion about an international enquiry into Covid's origins in an attempt to suck up to Trump who'd floated the idea at a rally and then promptly forgot about it. Xi launched a trade war over this and Australian businesses that traded with China suffered. No one wants uncertainty in business deals.
Didn’t they turn to wolf warrior policy due to discontent at home? To shift the attention of the people to outside enemies rather than the failing economy?
Yes, but now that the wolf warrior diplomacy has scared foreign companies to pull out, the government is using that to fan further anti foreign sentiment.
The irony of the financial crisis in China is that they've been over reporting their GDP gains for decades. The situation is much worse than we know, as we don't have accurate data.
@@308_Negra_Arroyo_Lane ...Because obviously the CCP fudged the numbers in their favor so it could only be worse then what they report. Unless you somehow think that the CCP decided to make themselves look worse than they really are?
6:10 You don't need to imagine. Previous administration in South Korea tried to come up with the similar idea, which is basically a wealth redistribution scheme aimed at encouraging domestic consumption. Now you cannot mention "you-know-what" in this part of the internet without raising a flaming dispute between two or more sides. The phrase "you-know-what" is now as divisive in Korea as "trickle-down economics" is in America, and I refuse to spell it myself because of it.
BUT SIR MY INDIA IS THE REAL SUPERPOWER NUMBER ONE🤗🇮🇳 WE HAVE THE BEST INFRASTRUCTURE AND HIGHSPEED RAIL 🤗🇮🇳 MEANWHILE IN CHINA PEOPLE STILL RIDE RICKSHAW EVERYWHERE AND THEY ALSO POOR DONT HAVE CAR . THIS WHY IM SO LUCKY LIVE IN SUPER INDIA THE CLEANEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD 🇮🇳🤗 , WE NEVER SCAM! WE GIVE RESPECT TO ALL WOMEN THEY CAN WALK SAFELY ALONE AT NIGHT AND WE HAVE CLEAN FOOD AND TOILET EVERYWHERE 🇮🇳🤗🚽, I KNOW MANY POOR PEOPLE JEALOUS WITH SUPER RICH INDIA 🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳
If the Chinese system is targeting employment its failing miserably with youth unemployment stats so bad they had to stop publishing it at 21.3% in August 2023. It's a deeply disturbing indicator of workforce stagnation. If they were moving in the right direction it'd be extremely low for the youth especially. I'm sure the next datapoint showed amazing improvements, they wouldn't want to shock the world with those stats. There's people who aren't counted in those stats also, by contrast to many other measures. If you're a Chinese youth that doesn't look for a job and you're without any education or other occupation you're not counted as unemployed. Those are actively job seeking unemployed youth. If the Chinese system is targeting output. What does that mean? Output of what? Goods, like exports? Just some made up alternative for GDP? GDP is output in a very broad sense. It doesn't matter where the product goes, if it's profitable or good in any way. It doesn't matter if it's a product or service. If I pay you to give me a _bad_ back rub and that's 10$ that's 10$ to GDP. If you break my back while doing it and I have to fix it at the doctor that's GDP. It's a very generous measure of output. Profitability is probably the most important for a country though because being highly profitable gives you room to move, grow and invest. Having excess capital is what you want. It's the rate of growing direct economic power (not to be confused with economic power in international diplomacy that can be debt driven).
I think what Patmccall is saying that the Chinese system is designed for SHORT-TERM profitability but LONG TERM output and employments. All the stats you have quoted are short term and lagging. We are what? Just over 6 months from China coming out of their lockdown? On top of that there is a reshuffling to the Chinese economy as they aim to move up the value-added ladder. The youth unemployment figures has already been explained: there has been an uptick of young people who deferring looking for work because of the pandemic so there is a glute of younger workers from the last two years of graduates at different education levels. I mean have a look at what China's has been doing. Their EV market was 30 years in the making and so was their smartphone industry. China isn't going to care about one or two years of bad numbers if it means transitioning into higher value industries and better self-reliance. Xi has literally been saying this since 2019. @@0xCAFEF00D
Could it be that people have lost trust in CCP with distasterous covid policies? There are many people in China with money to spend and invest, but something tells me they are no to eager to invest in China.
Living in China: no the average person hasn't lost faith in the CPC. A lot of rich people might've, the few I know did, and could be planning to cut and run. Again some of those that i know that qualify as upper middle class/rich are planning to do this. However former co-workers, my wife, her family, and regular people I know are exactly where they were before. Either still supporting the CPC or, "I'm Chinese but i don't support the CPC. I support China and i guess the CPC has done well for China." The most round about way of saying they support the CPC because they know with foreigners supporting the CPC is a negative thing. Even in Guangzhou, where covid riots happened, people still support the CPC. Hell, in that area people still support the CPC. A lot of the blame lands on local politicians opposed to the CPC. "The gov of Guangzhou failed me not the CPC" a sentiment I heard while visiting Guangzhou post lockdowns.
It's very helpful to read "WHAT’S BEHIND CHINA’S CONCEPT OF ‘DUAL CIRCULATION’?" by Torsten Weller, China Policy Analyst. But here's a TL;DR of what China is doing for a while now. The difference is that it appears that China is serious about it this time. They wanted to move away from a purely export-driven economy (and investment economy) for a while, but previously they weren't motivated enough. China's adopted a "dual circulation" strategy which aims to create two complementary economic circuits: 1. **Internal Circulation**: Focuses on boosting domestic consumption and reducing reliance on foreign markets. This involves strengthening the domestic supply chain, increasing consumer spending, and advancing tech self-sufficiency. 2. **External Circulation**: Focuses on foreign trade and investment. The idea is not to abandon export-led growth but to make it more sustainable and less susceptible to external shocks like trade wars or global recessions. The "dual" aspect means that these two circuits are intended to reinforce each other. The strategy aims for an economy that can adapt to changing global conditions while meeting domestic needs.
I think China would fail. The 996 doctrine for example, increases the wages of workers a bit for the extra hours they put in. But they have become dis proportionally sick, stressed and tired, so the desired consumption increase won't happen. Some even refuse to cooperate, but China, as usual, has repressive methods for them.
The strategy is to defraud, coerce, and steal from all of their trading partners while keeping their internal markets and currency entirely fraud based. The "dual circulation" strategy is literally just an act of war that only a Chinese person would be dumb enough to be tricked by.
Chinese consumption will never improve enough to fix its other economic problems. Two reasons, first is the simple problem which comes from a collapsing demographic. Consumption is derived from population times average spending. Less people less consumption. Second is the CCP will never transfer enough wealth from the government to the people.
I always find funny the China topics: "CHINA IS FINALLY GOING DOWN! THEY ARE GOING TO GROW "ONLY" 4%! JUST LIKE WE KEEP SAYING EVERY TIME SOMETHING HAPPENS IN CHINA SINCE THE 50s!!". I think China can get out of this one with a well-planned and executed monetary expansion policy and direct transfers to their citizens. If there is a political fallout for Xi Ping much the better for China, having a Premier for more than 8 years can have terrible repercussions.
I think there is a base misunderstanding going on. The Chinese economy has been suffering for over a decade. Extremely high real estate prices IS an economic crisis. Again, extremely high real restate prices IS an economic crisis. Chinese car manufacturers putting aside cash money from the car production and research branch, to speculate in real estate IS an economic crisis. Just because the CCP apparatus has been able to technically keep the mathematical formula that is GDP, a positive number. Does not mean you don't have an economic crisis. Heck, the CCP is STILL pulling all the levers in order to keep the CCP formula positive. The core of the problem is the CCP itself, and the excessive levels of corruption in the lower and middle management of the CCP. Even in 2023, middle management is taking on huge loans in order to expand cities whose population is shrinking. Because 1. The developer will hand them cash for doing so 2. The province coffers will fill up, allowing for higher legitimate pay. The Chinese people have been constructing, buying and selling completely worthless real estate between each other for years. It's collapse is a good thing, not a crisis. No one will ever live in them. A significant portion of them are very poorly constructed, especially the last 5-10 years. And recently, a lot of projects are not even finished. There will NEVER be a rise in consumption in China. Because that would mean the CCP would have to give the people ACTUAL goods and services as payment for labor provided.
Well said, housing/real estate for speculation/investment is unhealthy and unsustainable in the long run, and a control collapse is far better than 2008 subprime crisis. Unaffordable housing and real estate in China has long begun even before 2008, yet it only caught attention of western media b/c of the new cold war and the evergrande's downfall Despite claiming as communist, the CCP definitely slack out on distributing worker/population's work and value back to them. Xi has mentioned that he intended to distribute wealth more fairly and we shall see if CCP stick to its word and namesake of 'communist', and observe if socialist experiment can truly overtake the capitalist realism.
Saying there Will never be a rise in consumption is stupid. There has already been major increases in consumption over the past decade. It's just not where it could be
@@davidk.d.7591 How can consumption rise when their population is plummeting because of the tens of millions children the CCP kidnapped and sold into human trafficking?
They fail to mention one important factor that is contributing to the economic stagnation. That is, demographic decline. China is one of the fastest aging countries in the world. The Chinese workforce is already declining at an alarming rate. I have a video about china which explains this. I'm new to RUclips.
alot of those hundreds of millions are old folks nice try wumao , this is Indias decaded china effectively in the middle income trap @@308_Negra_Arroyo_Lane
Thing is, that's not going to affect them right now. Elderly people only make up 12% of china and China, in particular, has a very easy solution to it. That is their biggest issue in the long term though
@@308_Negra_Arroyo_Lane People moving from the countryside to the cities have sharp declines in birth rates. There will be 30% less people per generation. The collapse of the current economic system is a mathematical certainty.
And the West has been driving our wages lower every year, saying we need to compete with Chinese low wages. So we're heading for a poor financial situation ourselves
4.The CCP requests bodies that compile statistics to deliver figures that suit its agenda, and immediately declares any crisis is over. As seen during COVID.
Maslow's piramid - if they're going to rise wedges people will start thinking about something more than how to survive next day. Do you think government will accept that?
Yeah I saw your preview for your "newspaper". Good layout design but your typesetting needs some work... Might want to set justification parameters in the paragraph setting to min 85% and max 108% so you dont have panama cannal-sized gaps between words when you have them justified.
The 1-child policy was done despite growing awareness of Chinese people about the fact they need less children and more sustainable economy by the 1970s and 1980s. This directly impacts how China is performing and there are even risks in China that the country may collapse before going rich. Ton of vanity projects do not help either.
May be we can look at current situations around the world in term of economic wise as coming back to sustainable level. Have tried 2much2hard to stimulate when stimulation can never be normal level but a short term period of economic boom.
China's growth over the 30 to 40 years and the downtrend ita facing now is a learning lesson for any other nation that is currently taking over china's position as a manufacturing powerhouse. Growing steadily and wisely with leadership that understands that the growth is not forever. Wise enough to crack down on corruption, re invest in the population and infrastructure to attract more FDI and keep the people content. Keep the middle class from migrating and seeing a future in their own country.
Mexico is going to gain substantially from this and due to its proximity and relationship with the u.s and growing closer to Europe as well it’s not going to have a hard time advancing to a modern economy
doesnt that debt drag affect work on the US economy as well? idk what chinese debt is at but i feel like it cant be at 33.6 Trillion with a T. -edit- ok i looked it up and got 9.5 Trillion in USD
If you count all debt in China it's more than all government debt in America but the problem is you're counting all debt and the second problem is the Chinese government owns all of its Major Banks or practically owned them so most of that there is to itself and money printing during deflation is always an option to pay off debts
would it be possible for china to reighn in some of their investment and debt from the belt and road , or would it be too soon to be expecting a payment before the initiative is complete ? im terrible at geo-economics/politics but im interested
belt and road is just a big scam, they do get a lot of money early on be those project are never worth it for that country, they get into debt and sometimes are force to give land to China, also China is unfixable, it's just far far too broken down and rotten to the core to be fixed with the current government, they would need a country wide culture to do a 180 shift basically; even then they've made way too many enemies with most of the world to be trusted again for many decades.
Dont worry. The housing crisis sucks for a lot of people in china . Some report in china said it affected 6 million people, but that is only .5% of whole population. Chinese people will have less money to spend, but isn't the whole world like this right now. Even with this crash, i still personally think china house is too expensive. Shanghai guangzhou shenzhen beijing will recover quickly. For tier 5 cities r rural areas will suck. China will be fine. Sucks for the people that bough property within these 5 years, but not a big issue for homeowners that are 10+ yr. Its sucks, but china will survive
@@bl5608that’s highly optimistic. They right now have the perfect conditions for unrest and revolution - this why the PLA is a domestic army. A best case scenario for China is to become Japan - but Japan was already rich before it crashed, China is not. Plus the demographics are unrecoverable from - not just that they are far below replacement levels but also the sex imbalance. Saying being fine when you have a grasp of Chinese history is like saying living through the Mao period was a breeze - delusional.
So they kind of tried that in Africa in 2020 and it didn’t go well. The African nations turned around and said that the Chinese money was a grant not a loan, and that was that. Essentially China is unable to project power militarily- the PLA is a domestic army aimed at controlling the population ( this is historically smart - Chinese history is filled with uprisings) not at going overseas and ending countries keep to deals. Their version of the IMF is already shutting down offices. China was the largest benefactor of globalisation and as that recedes they will be largest loser. Sadly their demographics now make them more expensive in many areas then Mexico or India. They could of played this differently but they absolutely suck at diplomacy. It’s kid of ironic that the multipolar world they advocate would require the very skill sets that they lack - almost like what they really mean was a world which china at the top 😂
@veronicamaine3813 if you think china will just collapse or start a revolution because of this, you will be wrong. The housing market in china will not and should not go back at the highest peak. I expect china housing will continue to drop, drop to the real market price. So, how low is low? That will be depends by the public chinese people. A lot of new homeowners are and will suffer, but a lot of newer hone buyers will be able to buy it at the real market price. Now, this might take a couple of years. Tier 1 cities like shenzhen guangzhou shanghai beijing shouldn't have any major problems. People across china still go to these places for employment, education, and business. If housing is too expensive, people will rent. If housing is reasonable to chinese people, people will buy. Japan housing market is different. Japanese doesn't think house as a fixed asset . It is more like a computer. It breaks, but a new one. Very different from the rest of they world. Homeowners in tier 1 cities that purchased the property 23 years ago (2000) they already 10x the value. Right now they are still at least 8x . This crisis sucks for new buyers within these 5 years , but shows little affect to people who bought the house 10 years ago. They are still making money. Rural area and lower tier city will have more difficulty to adjust. Now, let see what the government can do to help them. Overall, 1.5 million home and 6 million home owners are affected, and it totally sucks for them. However, more people didn't feel a thing.
Leadership in China is very peculiar ( replace this with something less polite), for some bizare reason they can't let go of implemented policies when said policies stop working or are proven wrong, examples : covid measures, belt&road, local government debt problem, one-child-policy, infrastructure investments . It does not matter if they know of the problem or/and know what the solution is , they will simply not take any action until their policy becomes an _international meme_ ...
The reason it's peculiar to you is that you read anti China news all day. China's real crime is that they refuse to be your Uber drivers & Amazon delivery men. They'll develop their economy as they see fit.
covid measure is a success. Even though restrictions for 0-covid policies were hard (only when you were confined which did not happen that much where I am tbh) 5k death and 500k total for a 1.4b country can't be described as a failure. For Belt and Road, economically idk haven't tried to look that up but politically being able to get a summer and special talk with 150 countries is pretty good. The future will tell if it ends in failure. Infrastructure investments have to be seen as population benefits rather than just economic benefits. Travel and live in China for that, the convenience of Chinese infrastructure is by far superior to anywhere else I've been and lived, including Japan btw. Even though it costs a lot to maintain... maybe they could try to increase the number of trains? they are not all full but they are definitely not empty. the rest is mostly forecast, if I recon some Chinese analysts that went on Local TV, there are about 400+m rural peoples, mostly elders, contributing to 3% of the GDP, doing work mostly traditionally and that could be replaced by 25m people if there is proper automation. Quite cynical, but at the country scale, it will not really have a huge impact as long as they can modernize in time. The job crisis for youth is not due to the lack of jobs but rather the lack of good jobs (see the lying flat movement for that). In China, if there is a problem you would not hear it until the problem actually hits. also: the property sector crash is "bad" for numbers but has about 0 effect on actual people since it's only housing for investment and mostly foreigners (evergrande for instance was mostly US investment), and tbh I really don't care to see the tofu dreg developer losing their money. This country still has a lot of challenges ahead and a lot of issues to tackle but the quality of life here is better than in the Western country I was born in.
zero covid failed because the lockdowns weren't meant long term, they were only pushing down the cases until they popped back up again, even Taiwan, NZ, etc gave up in the end because it wasn't working, and their economies suffered from the constant lockdowns, they should have reopened earlier and ride out the wave, also the local governments were afraid of being punished, so they kept locking down entire cities to report low cases
foreign friends dont understand that chiness leader is underworking to upgrade HIGHT TECH, and throwing out estate markets. it means that make people more richer than eve rbefore. thankyou host.
I would be interested to see how would China benefit from a potential war, when people get poor they are pushed to their limit and are more likely to replace their government. So the consequences of their recession on the whole world are a scenerio that we should think about.
Tales of China's financial collapse have been going around for decades, they have all been wrong. There are a few major reasons why it is highly likely China is only going to grow further: -The BRI has been hugely successful and the new infrastructure has opened up export markets across the world. -China retains control of their central banking and their money supply, meaning they can counter economic imbalances by directing money wherever it is needed. -Chinese people save a lot of money and their efficient infrastructure keeps their cost of living low, meaning they can absorb economic shocks far better than other countries. We in the west might scoff at China's policies, but they have proven formidable and we'd do well to learn a thing or two from them.
Rebalancing is impossible in the context of domestic consumption. The problem isn’t low disposable income; it’s that they are running out of the people that do the consuming (20-40 yrs olds) bc of the One Child policy & the side-effects of urbanization. There is no real way forward. You got the demographic problem; the housing bubble, which is basically the Sub Prime crisis on steroids; utter dependencies for food & energy; no naval reach if they opt to lash out. The system will collapse in short order.
@@Infinitecreek25 I see absolutely no chance for them to change their mind easily, cause remember Xi is in his early 70s, and we all know how stubborn people in their 70s tend to be. Not much better for folks surrounding him either.
Xi is also staunchly against consumerism. On WeChat a lot of my local news groups have been publishing puff pieces about "western corruption through consumerism". It's getting ridiculous
GDP per capita (PPP) China - $23,309 from $21,476 in 2022 ( and gdp growth is 3% not 5% ) GDP per capita (PPP) - $56,836 from $54,603 in 2022 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita you see, adding $10 to $1000 is better than adding $10 to $100, also it is also pretty hard . and you picked UK , the country ran by morons that made a Brexit
I think its quite unfair to make it seem like salaries haven't increased. They've increased by a lot. Perhaps it could be more, just remember they started from a very low base. Also, I don't think the issue with domestic consumption is political. Everyone in the CPC has agreed on it for the past few years now. Its one of their top priorities in their five year plan. It not an easy feat though, ad their social services are lagging. They're also trying to change the mindset to prepare for lower GDP rates. You'll notice a lot of speeches saying high quality growth and all that. They also are trying to remove low cost manufacturing from the coast. You'll notice that inner provinces are reporting the highest growths. There's a reason advanced manufacturing and designed in China are also priorities. Its a long road though.
Im going to go against the grain here and say consumption has fallen of because of changing bevahiors in the covid crisis haven't fully reversed and because of distrust by consumers in certain areas of the economy. Its safe to say that some consumers were defrauded in the real estate debacle of the pre-covid era. One way to increase trust is for the governemt to finish structures that went bankrupt before they finished, liquidate the assets of the defrauding business add to that and return the money lost back to the consumer and then institute reforms (Independent building inspectors, 10 year warranty on construction, bonding, etc). But even if these are not done chinese domestic consumption will still evolve, although not efficiently because the lack of proprietry diversity and experimentation in technologies in the private sector is not an efficient way to innovate. For instance leaving millions of electric metro cars that wont be used means that the technilogy could be recycled for something else (like batteries being used for city power reserves).
Reading the comments, I'm extremely surprised to see how uninformed people are about the real situation in China, thinking that a big collapse is coming or something. The reality is no western analysts not even governments truly knows how China is developing. This is a country which spent almost 500 billion dollars last year on research and development, the effects of that spending will be seen in a few years, and you will be extremely surprised.
6:40 Whatt... This does not make any sense. I mean resistance from business to impede transitions into a different industry sector would be applicable to Western democracy especially US when there is a massive lobby culture, but how would this be applicable to China? If anyone say anything then they will just get "Jack Ma"ed. And you are kinda right in the sense that it would still be difficult for CPC to coerce the Chinese economy to move up the value-added-chain as it had struggled to do so in the past decades. The only difference here is US is actually doing what CPC wanted done, albeit in a less stable way. It will be difficult but there ARE already signs of this happening with more and more Chinese coming to take over higher value products such as smartphones, drones and EVs. Even when it comes to low value products, China are now developing their own IP and brand names like Li Ning and Miniso. I think TLDR is starting to wake up to wake up to the true purpose of BRI and BRICS with case 1 and 2. They are to increase exports to resource but dollar-strapped countries who China could then maintain their current trend of tech developments.
Only 1 point. You didnt mention hoe GDP works in china. For the rest of the world, GDP is calculated at the end of a financial years as a measure of how the economy has performed. This is not the case in china. Instead the federal government announces what it wants the GDP to be and its up to lower governments to make it happen. Its this forced GDP that is the reason there are ghost cities, massive over investment into usuless infrastructures etc etc. They count to the GDP as government speading thus over inflate the GDP figures. This is an important point that should be included in your explanation.
How about a TL:DR episode on the effects of this on Western economies... how will this affect your audience? Go with modelling option 1's results - the most likely CCP response.
You didn't mention the most important factor - China's demographic collapse. It's not just the fact that the workers don't have enough money to spend - there are simply not enough consumers. The population is shrinking in an alarming rate, and it's not gonna get any better in this economic climate. Also not mentioned are the utter disaster of the belt and road initiative, the dictatorship of Xi which does not allow for informed decision making, the deep corruption, inability to attract foreign workers and many more... In short, China is done.
You forgot the bigest problem facing China, the impending demographic collapse due to the one child policy and urbanization. Hard to fix an economy when your consumer base is cut almost in half in a period of 10 to 15 years, along with the labor shortage.
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It’s hard to see how any of these work. China probably can’t increase exports. They’re already uncompetitive against countries like Vietnam and Mexico and companies / countries don’t trust them as a supply chain partner. The world was already moving away from China before their current crisis. Increasing worker pay will crush Chinese exports before consumer social habits could take hold. Plus high youth unemployment and demographic doom mute and then undermine this sort of strategy. And there’s no guarantee they would recover from a Great Depression like economic cleansing. Beyond the social and political chaos it would create, Chinas demography will create an ever growing drag on growth.
yeah the big problem is that China is stuck at the worst possible time, with the world economy slowing down a lot, they don't really have any good options left, so they are facing a national depression or worse outcome
I legit think option 1 will likely happen. Option 2 is worst case option since Xi isn't interesting in big stimulus if the economy crashes. Option 3 is just wishful thinking
Another issue is that Xi is very ideologically against consumption seeing it as "western decadence" so him agreeing to increase consumption would be unlikely.
economies are partly driven by those speculations though; they're not in a vacuum from the economy itself. if people don't have trust in an economy's future, it will likely come true from the lack of faith from people investing.
Thanks. Absent in your analysis is the "elephant in the room". E.G., Demographics. Currently, 1 productive/value add worker is providing economic production to support 2.25 people in China. This will rise to 1 worker supporting 5 people by 2023, 7 years from now. Most economic strategies have no models for dealing with this. Ditto for solutions.
And everyone was telling us we should be worried about china lol. Sorry nobody is replacing America anytime soon. Not china not india not the eu not brics.
During a war, once a naval blockade is imposed on China, the Chinese economy will collapse because more than 40% of its economy is based on trade. This is why China will never become the next superpower and will remain only a regional power in Asia.
You seem to underestimate the real reasons why you should be worried. The reason why America leads the world is not its army, or its currency, it is the technological dominance of the US. The only battlefield that matters is the technological one and if you're smart enough to inform yourself, you will quickly realize what a competitor China really is on that front.
Two type people C.C.P or part member and civilian called leeks that u can harvest any time . I learn china insight RUclips channel topic in side china and culture
It's their real estate sector That's dragging down growth it has nothing to do with Russia they're having their own version of the US subprime mortgage meltdown.
Chin’s domestic consumption is not small, it is just because China has a oversized export industry; if tomorrow China doesn’t export at all then it’s domestic consumption will be 50% of its GDP on par with other EU countries.
The Chinese economic model is fundamentally different from the operating models of European and American economies! That is, the Chinese government is the future strategic planner of the economy, and officials are the executors and implementers of the economy! If there are problems with the grassroots economy, the Chinese government will provide support! The Chinese government will bear all responsibilities for social public resources!! The adverse social events caused by capitalists will result in legal proceedings and confiscation of all assets! No capitalist in China dares to confront the central government! Capitalists in China are only one of the elements for developing productivity!!! At a certain time, capitalists will also be eliminated by the times! Don't use your economic methods to speculate about the Chinese economy! Because your economic logic is too naive!
![Noob To Max With DRAGON REWORK In Blox Fruits [FULL MOVIE]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/LnBMOinoOvA/mqdefault.jpg)
I heard that the problem with Chinese housing is that rather than it being a problem in consumption is that it was one of the few ways people could invest, so they bought multiple houses per household. So at this point there are way more houses than would ever be needed, especially as the demographics continue to worsen. Leaving them all with massive debts and useless property, so I suppose it is more likely a reason for consumption staying low rather than being a problem due to low consumption.
But I'm just some guy on the internet, look for a more credible source to get the details.
You're probably the only "guy on the internet" apart from myself who heard that as well & understood it.
The thing is though, that the Chinese economy is managed to stop it crashing. Because of the checks & balances that creates it's unlikely to crash like a western economy. A lot of western minds just don't understand that concept, including the guys at TLDR news.
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In "multiple houses per household", you mean multiple = thousands. The header of the Jinzhou district of the city of Dalian, for example, was found holding 2714 sets of apartments (in China, almost all commercial housing are apartments)
@@serena-yu...wow
I too am a guy on the internet who has noticed lots of ads targeting Chinese buy-to-let investors showing the benefits of putting their money in property around the world for higher returns. It could explain some of the impact on China plus appears to be a way to spread boom and bust property market around the world. Oh joy.
Very fast ageing population coupled with very high youth unemployment rate. It is difficult to understand unless there's a big crisis in demand and lots of overinvestment in very unproductive enterprises.
Accurate and to the Point 👍
I'm a Chinese. I think companies in China are not safe as they lack healthy free market environments, companies' owners never know when the government will intervene in their business, therefore, they're restrained in development. The government uses low tax rates and neglects workers' rights to counterbalance the restrain, which leads employees staying in bad economic conditions so they can't consume a lot.
This method can not work anymore. People used to ignore workers' rights as GDP grew quickly, but now they can't continue to be like that because it's not only against human rights but also harmful to economy.
I think we can see from the COVID response... well... the ones after the world cup... that was a Chernobyl event politically... along with the apartment fire...
China has a lot of economy to work with, the size is huge. They'll rebound even if there's a crisis, just like any other major economy.
I do think that domestic consumption needs to grow though. Maybe they can create a legislative framework so that poor people can have a few things guaranteed: a stable life and not worrying about debt if they are working and a minimum of take home cash.
The minimum should be like one cheap car a year, or a couple iphones a year, or a full 99 year housing lease every 15 years or so.
Maybe they can even direct their consumption force toward their national goals like building up their national electronic chip manufacturing
@@ayoCC
I agree with your opinions.
They have taken advantage of cheap labor for too long and don't want to take risk for giving it up. This will benefit for the long run but GDP might decrease for few years, and decrease of GDP may cause political instability which is the least thing CCP wants to face.
@@ziyu8061 i think a viable strategy might be forcing that "cheap labour force" into specific zones. And they could test out a Government sanctioned version of workers unions, after all this time of suppressing wages. They must always be loyal to the central government, but aside from that they are allowed to use all tools a regular union could use to negotiate against their employers, to make sure they receive freedoms that were put aside for no good reason other than tyranny.
The mentality of letting people have freedoms that cost nothing and do no one any harm could maybe also go into other aspects of the daily life maybe.
I remember when I found out how much my Chinese coworkers were getting paid. I was ready to strike for them.
During covid every foreigner got a free 7k rmb bonus and they gloated to our Chinese coworkers about it. Meanwhile our Chinese coworkers had wages slashed. It got to a point where I would make bets that i would intentionally lose to give coworkers some money.
There could be an asteroid hitting earth but the CCP would still be forecasting 5% annual growth lol.
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It's not a forecast, it's a directive. The central committee sets a growth target and local authorities either deliver or face Beijing's wrath. So they take out massive loans, build a highway from an empty field to an abandoned mine, build a bridge to nowhere, and *BOOM* economic activity: Mission accomplished. Just don't think about next year's budget too much.
It's determined by World Bank and it's 5.5%. This guy is western propagandist
Thank you for all your work TLDR!
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@@indiasuperclean6969but poverty is everywhere in your country. Your numbers as a country show that you're a superpower,but indian citizens have a bad quality of life
@@indiasuperclean6969Bangladesh is better
The IMF expects realistically 0% economic growth. And it is actually negative for 2023. Last year the GDP of China was 17.9 trillion. This year it is expected to be 17.7 trillion. This is because while the Chinese economy grew in yuan terms the value of these yuans became lower relative to the USD.
😅😅😅😅😅😅
Given that the Q3 2023 for China is out it is unrealistic to expect the Chinese GDP to break 18 trillion USD. So IMF's estimation is pretty believable. This means that the Chinese economy effectively grew by 0% from 2021 to 2023. Tho looking at IMF's Economic Outlook they still expect the Chinese economy from 2024 to 2028 to grow with similar size to the US economy. Given the US economy is bigger this means the IMF suggests higher real GDP growth for China.
@@ulikemyname6744 It is not unreasonable to expect the Chinese economy to grow slightly faster than the US economy. It should be mentioned that the US economy performed very well in the last 2 years when it comes to growth. A lot of new projetcts and investments are happening currently. We can assume that the IMF is underestimating the US economy but times are such that nobody can predict what would happen tomorrow
@@ulikemyname6744 Chinese economy is growing at 5.5% this year. American at 1.2%, Canada 0.8% Europe average 1% and Germany is in deep recession. Are you an economist? How can you say Chinese economy will grow similar to American economy while China was never less than 5% in the last 25 years? Moreover they had 14 years of growth of 10-12% out of the last 25.
@@DK-ev9dg Then how do you explain that in 2021 the Chinese economy was 17.7 trillion, in 2022 the economy was 17.9 trillion and now it is expected to be once again 17.7 trillion. So we are talking about in both years the economy growing by 5-6% and yet it stays at the same place as in 2021. As the other guy said the Chinese economy is growing in yuan terms. The problem is that yuan is losing its value. Therefore when you convert it in USD the economy seems as it never really grew. Thus it is losing its value.
5:47 ding ding ding ding! sums up the sole reason for CCP's existence
and yet... 🤣
I'll say it here and ill say it again, wolf warrior diplomacy has been a disaster for China, foreign direct investment which would've sucked up on the overabundance of highly skilled workers have slowed down and uven reversed, trying to pull out af the country, and created an atmosphere of protectionism especially against China in politically palatable and economically tolerable
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True, many businesses now view China as a risk - they could be caught in the middle of a diplomatic spate and be used to punish their home country.
Everyone saw how Australian businesses were screwed over all because the then Australian PM [Scott Morrison aka Scotty from Marketing] made a stupid suggestion about an international enquiry into Covid's origins in an attempt to suck up to Trump who'd floated the idea at a rally and then promptly forgot about it.
Xi launched a trade war over this and Australian businesses that traded with China suffered.
No one wants uncertainty in business deals.
@@indiasuperclean6969sarr
Didn’t they turn to wolf warrior policy due to discontent at home? To shift the attention of the people to outside enemies rather than the failing economy?
Yes, but now that the wolf warrior diplomacy has scared foreign companies to pull out, the government is using that to fan further anti foreign sentiment.
The irony of the financial crisis in China is that they've been over reporting their GDP gains for decades.
The situation is much worse than we know, as we don't have accurate data.
If we don't have data then how do you know it's much worse? LMFAO!
@@308_Negra_Arroyo_LaneTrue 😂
@@308_Negra_Arroyo_Lane ...Because obviously the CCP fudged the numbers in their favor so it could only be worse then what they report. Unless you somehow think that the CCP decided to make themselves look worse than they really are?
@@308_Negra_Arroyo_LaneBecause it's over reported just like China's demographic, did you even read the comment?
@@308_Negra_Arroyo_Lanebecause if it was much better they would let the world know… no country hides good economic results, idiot.
How has it taken this long for me to realise that Ben and Jack are different people?
Does anyone else feel like the word 'crisis' is way over used these days?
Please stop the flashing grid in the background of info cards, it's very difficult to watch.
6:10 You don't need to imagine. Previous administration in South Korea tried to come up with the similar idea, which is basically a wealth redistribution scheme aimed at encouraging domestic consumption. Now you cannot mention "you-know-what" in this part of the internet without raising a flaming dispute between two or more sides. The phrase "you-know-what" is now as divisive in Korea as "trickle-down economics" is in America, and I refuse to spell it myself because of it.
I actually have no idea what you mean. Also South Korea remains a very unequal country reliant on exports.
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@@indiasuperclean6969 most cleanest water is india is your own piss
@@indiasuperclean6969 fr fr
UBI?
The Chinese system isn't designed for profitability, it's designed for output and employment
If the Chinese system is targeting employment its failing miserably with youth unemployment stats so bad they had to stop publishing it at 21.3% in August 2023. It's a deeply disturbing indicator of workforce stagnation. If they were moving in the right direction it'd be extremely low for the youth especially. I'm sure the next datapoint showed amazing improvements, they wouldn't want to shock the world with those stats. There's people who aren't counted in those stats also, by contrast to many other measures. If you're a Chinese youth that doesn't look for a job and you're without any education or other occupation you're not counted as unemployed. Those are actively job seeking unemployed youth.
If the Chinese system is targeting output. What does that mean? Output of what? Goods, like exports? Just some made up alternative for GDP? GDP is output in a very broad sense. It doesn't matter where the product goes, if it's profitable or good in any way. It doesn't matter if it's a product or service. If I pay you to give me a _bad_ back rub and that's 10$ that's 10$ to GDP. If you break my back while doing it and I have to fix it at the doctor that's GDP. It's a very generous measure of output.
Profitability is probably the most important for a country though because being highly profitable gives you room to move, grow and invest. Having excess capital is what you want. It's the rate of growing direct economic power (not to be confused with economic power in international diplomacy that can be debt driven).
Yeah from what iv heard. Peter Zeihan etc
And they tried flexing on the customer 😂 ok? We’ll dump hundreds of billions somewhere else, who’s going to be hurting?
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
I think what Patmccall is saying that the Chinese system is designed for SHORT-TERM profitability but LONG TERM output and employments.
All the stats you have quoted are short term and lagging. We are what? Just over 6 months from China coming out of their lockdown? On top of that there is a reshuffling to the Chinese economy as they aim to move up the value-added ladder.
The youth unemployment figures has already been explained: there has been an uptick of young people who deferring looking for work because of the pandemic so there is a glute of younger workers from the last two years of graduates at different education levels.
I mean have a look at what China's has been doing. Their EV market was 30 years in the making and so was their smartphone industry. China isn't going to care about one or two years of bad numbers if it means transitioning into higher value industries and better self-reliance. Xi has literally been saying this since 2019.
@@0xCAFEF00D
Could it be that people have lost trust in CCP with distasterous covid policies? There are many people in China with money to spend and invest, but something tells me they are no to eager to invest in China.
they will just immigrate
Living in China: no the average person hasn't lost faith in the CPC. A lot of rich people might've, the few I know did, and could be planning to cut and run. Again some of those that i know that qualify as upper middle class/rich are planning to do this.
However former co-workers, my wife, her family, and regular people I know are exactly where they were before. Either still supporting the CPC or, "I'm Chinese but i don't support the CPC. I support China and i guess the CPC has done well for China." The most round about way of saying they support the CPC because they know with foreigners supporting the CPC is a negative thing.
Even in Guangzhou, where covid riots happened, people still support the CPC. Hell, in that area people still support the CPC. A lot of the blame lands on local politicians opposed to the CPC. "The gov of Guangzhou failed me not the CPC" a sentiment I heard while visiting Guangzhou post lockdowns.
It's very helpful to read "WHAT’S BEHIND CHINA’S CONCEPT OF ‘DUAL CIRCULATION’?" by Torsten Weller, China Policy Analyst.
But here's a TL;DR of what China is doing for a while now. The difference is that it appears that China is serious about it this time. They wanted to move away from a purely export-driven economy (and investment economy) for a while, but previously they weren't motivated enough.
China's adopted a "dual circulation" strategy which aims to create two complementary economic circuits:
1. **Internal Circulation**: Focuses on boosting domestic consumption and reducing reliance on foreign markets. This involves strengthening the domestic supply chain, increasing consumer spending, and advancing tech self-sufficiency.
2. **External Circulation**: Focuses on foreign trade and investment. The idea is not to abandon export-led growth but to make it more sustainable and less susceptible to external shocks like trade wars or global recessions.
The "dual" aspect means that these two circuits are intended to reinforce each other.
The strategy aims for an economy that can adapt to changing global conditions while meeting domestic needs.
I think China would fail. The 996 doctrine for example, increases the wages of workers a bit for the extra hours they put in. But they have become dis proportionally sick, stressed and tired, so the desired consumption increase won't happen.
Some even refuse to cooperate, but China, as usual, has repressive methods for them.
The strategy is to defraud, coerce, and steal from all of their trading partners while keeping their internal markets and currency entirely fraud based. The "dual circulation" strategy is literally just an act of war that only a Chinese person would be dumb enough to be tricked by.
Got the book a while back, I've only read part of it.
Chinese consumption will never improve enough to fix its other economic problems. Two reasons, first is the simple problem which comes from a collapsing demographic. Consumption is derived from population times average spending. Less people less consumption. Second is the CCP will never transfer enough wealth from the government to the people.
Amazing video
I always find funny the China topics: "CHINA IS FINALLY GOING DOWN! THEY ARE GOING TO GROW "ONLY" 4%! JUST LIKE WE KEEP SAYING EVERY TIME SOMETHING HAPPENS IN CHINA SINCE THE 50s!!". I think China can get out of this one with a well-planned and executed monetary expansion policy and direct transfers to their citizens. If there is a political fallout for Xi Ping much the better for China, having a Premier for more than 8 years can have terrible repercussions.
I think there is a base misunderstanding going on. The Chinese economy has been suffering for over a decade.
Extremely high real estate prices IS an economic crisis. Again, extremely high real restate prices IS an economic crisis.
Chinese car manufacturers putting aside cash money from the car production and research branch, to speculate in real estate IS an economic crisis.
Just because the CCP apparatus has been able to technically keep the mathematical formula that is GDP, a positive number. Does not mean you don't have an economic crisis. Heck, the CCP is STILL pulling all the levers in order to keep the CCP formula positive.
The core of the problem is the CCP itself, and the excessive levels of corruption in the lower and middle management of the CCP. Even in 2023, middle management is taking on huge loans in order to expand cities whose population is shrinking. Because 1. The developer will hand them cash for doing so 2. The province coffers will fill up, allowing for higher legitimate pay.
The Chinese people have been constructing, buying and selling completely worthless real estate between each other for years. It's collapse is a good thing, not a crisis. No one will ever live in them. A significant portion of them are very poorly constructed, especially the last 5-10 years. And recently, a lot of projects are not even finished.
There will NEVER be a rise in consumption in China. Because that would mean the CCP would have to give the people ACTUAL goods and services as payment for labor provided.
Well said, housing/real estate for speculation/investment is unhealthy and unsustainable in the long run, and a control collapse is far better than 2008 subprime crisis. Unaffordable housing and real estate in China has long begun even before 2008, yet it only caught attention of western media b/c of the new cold war and the evergrande's downfall
Despite claiming as communist, the CCP definitely slack out on distributing worker/population's work and value back to them. Xi has mentioned that he intended to distribute wealth more fairly and we shall see if CCP stick to its word and namesake of 'communist', and observe if socialist experiment can truly overtake the capitalist realism.
😂😂😂😂😂what a goofy comments!!!
Lot of guesswork here
Saying there Will never be a rise in consumption is stupid. There has already been major increases in consumption over the past decade. It's just not where it could be
@@davidk.d.7591 How can consumption rise when their population is plummeting because of the tens of millions children the CCP kidnapped and sold into human trafficking?
It should be noted that during this crisis times they did a stree test on their economy to see if they could handle the situation
I recall the myth around the early Ford workers being paid well enough to purchase a Ford. Maybe it was true
They fail to mention one important factor that is contributing to the economic stagnation. That is, demographic decline. China is one of the fastest aging countries in the world. The Chinese workforce is already declining at an alarming rate.
I have a video about china which explains this. I'm new to RUclips.
Don't regurgitate everything you read on MSM. China still has hundreds of millions of people in the countryside who want to urbanize.
alot of those hundreds of millions are old folks nice try wumao , this is Indias decaded china effectively in the middle income trap @@308_Negra_Arroyo_Lane
Thing is, that's not going to affect them right now. Elderly people only make up 12% of china and China, in particular, has a very easy solution to it.
That is their biggest issue in the long term though
@@308_Negra_Arroyo_Lane People moving from the countryside to the cities have sharp declines in birth rates. There will be 30% less people per generation. The collapse of the current economic system is a mathematical certainty.
People act as if China has already lost its demographic advantage. They still have the largest workforce by a mile. Come back in 20 years.
Love how they didn't bother to go over the Chinese college applications problem
Which school stopped letting people be CS majors this semester? That was a huge red flag.
And the West has been driving our wages lower every year, saying we need to compete with Chinese low wages. So we're heading for a poor financial situation ourselves
4.The CCP requests bodies that compile statistics to deliver figures that suit its agenda, and immediately declares any crisis is over. As seen during COVID.
Any analysis of anything in 2020-3 without mentioning the global plague is missing the most important factor in everything everywhere.
So the only way to save themselves is to start buying things they don't need with money they don't have. Sounds wonderful!
tldr money does not matter, the party tells you what to do......
It's almost like raising wages helps the economy?
Maslow's piramid - if they're going to rise wedges people will start thinking about something more than how to survive next day. Do you think government will accept that?
But by doing so , they lost the reason why many company around the world will pick China as their main factory.
Yeah I saw your preview for your "newspaper". Good layout design but your typesetting needs some work... Might want to set justification parameters in the paragraph setting to min 85% and max 108% so you dont have panama cannal-sized gaps between words when you have them justified.
First step is the ruler should step down to inspire people to open shops again
Not on Nebula?
the truth is worse than you think
I should wonder if the CCP is wise enough to take a step back in order to continue steps forward
I hope you're predictions are right TLDR.
Their predictions have proven wrong countless times. Not very bright are you?
@@silveriver9 Any examples?
The 1-child policy was done despite growing awareness of Chinese people about the fact they need less children and more sustainable economy by the 1970s and 1980s. This directly impacts how China is performing and there are even risks in China that the country may collapse before going rich.
Ton of vanity projects do not help either.
May be we can look at current situations around the world in term of economic wise as coming back to sustainable level. Have tried 2much2hard to stimulate when stimulation can never be normal level but a short term period of economic boom.
"This analysis was brought to you based on a 2h course Jack did on economics on SkillShare"
it will never end
China's growth over the 30 to 40 years and the downtrend ita facing now is a learning lesson for any other nation that is currently taking over china's position as a manufacturing powerhouse.
Growing steadily and wisely with leadership that understands that the growth is not forever. Wise enough to crack down on corruption, re invest in the population and infrastructure to attract more FDI and keep the people content. Keep the middle class from migrating and seeing a future in their own country.
Mexico is going to gain substantially from this and due to its proximity and relationship with the u.s and growing closer to Europe as well it’s not going to have a hard time advancing to a modern economy
Or, you know, just don't constantly harass, coerce and steal from your allies after they sacrificed for decades to raise you out of poverty.
doesnt that debt drag affect work on the US economy as well? idk what chinese debt is at but i feel like it cant be at 33.6 Trillion with a T. -edit- ok i looked it up and got 9.5 Trillion in USD
If you count all debt in China it's more than all government debt in America but the problem is you're counting all debt and the second problem is the Chinese government owns all of its Major Banks or practically owned them so most of that there is to itself and money printing during deflation is always an option to pay off debts
EV exports could be a thing
would it be possible for china to reighn in some of their investment and debt from the belt and road , or would it be too soon to be expecting a payment before the initiative is complete ? im terrible at geo-economics/politics but im interested
belt and road is just a big scam, they do get a lot of money early on be those project are never worth it for that country, they get into debt and sometimes are force to give land to China, also China is unfixable, it's just far far too broken down and rotten to the core to be fixed with the current government, they would need a country wide culture to do a 180 shift basically; even then they've made way too many enemies with most of the world to be trusted again for many decades.
Dont worry. The housing crisis sucks for a lot of people in china . Some report in china said it affected 6 million people, but that is only .5% of whole population. Chinese people will have less money to spend, but isn't the whole world like this right now. Even with this crash, i still personally think china house is too expensive. Shanghai guangzhou shenzhen beijing will recover quickly. For tier 5 cities r rural areas will suck.
China will be fine. Sucks for the people that bough property within these 5 years, but not a big issue for homeowners that are 10+ yr.
Its sucks, but china will survive
@@bl5608that’s highly optimistic. They right now have the perfect conditions for unrest and revolution - this why the PLA is a domestic army. A best case scenario for China is to become Japan - but Japan was already rich before it crashed, China is not. Plus the demographics are unrecoverable from - not just that they are far below replacement levels but also the sex imbalance. Saying being fine when you have a grasp of Chinese history is like saying living through the Mao period was a breeze - delusional.
So they kind of tried that in Africa in 2020 and it didn’t go well. The African nations turned around and said that the Chinese money was a grant not a loan, and that was that. Essentially China is unable to project power militarily- the PLA is a domestic army aimed at controlling the population ( this is historically smart - Chinese history is filled with uprisings) not at going overseas and ending countries keep to deals. Their version of the IMF is already shutting down offices. China was the largest benefactor of globalisation and as that recedes they will be largest loser. Sadly their demographics now make them more expensive in many areas then Mexico or India. They could of played this differently but they absolutely suck at diplomacy. It’s kid of ironic that the multipolar world they advocate would require the very skill sets that they lack - almost like what they really mean was a world which china at the top 😂
@veronicamaine3813 if you think china will just collapse or start a revolution because of this, you will be wrong. The housing market in china will not and should not go back at the highest peak. I expect china housing will continue to drop, drop to the real market price. So, how low is low? That will be depends by the public chinese people. A lot of new homeowners are and will suffer, but a lot of newer hone buyers will be able to buy it at the real market price. Now, this might take a couple of years. Tier 1 cities like shenzhen guangzhou shanghai beijing shouldn't have any major problems. People across china still go to these places for employment, education, and business. If housing is too expensive, people will rent. If housing is reasonable to chinese people, people will buy.
Japan housing market is different. Japanese doesn't think house as a fixed asset . It is more like a computer. It breaks, but a new one. Very different from the rest of they world.
Homeowners in tier 1 cities that purchased the property 23 years ago (2000) they already 10x the value. Right now they are still at least 8x .
This crisis sucks for new buyers within these 5 years , but shows little affect to people who bought the house 10 years ago. They are still making money.
Rural area and lower tier city will have more difficulty to adjust. Now, let see what the government can do to help them.
Overall, 1.5 million home and 6 million home owners are affected, and it totally sucks for them. However, more people didn't feel a thing.
Leadership in China is very peculiar ( replace this with something less polite), for some bizare reason they can't let go of implemented policies when said policies stop working or are proven wrong, examples : covid measures, belt&road, local government debt problem, one-child-policy, infrastructure investments .
It does not matter if they know of the problem or/and know what the solution is , they will simply not take any action until their policy becomes an _international meme_ ...
something called "face"
I mean the head literally _legislated_ himself to Eternal Chairman
The reason it's peculiar to you is that you read anti China news all day. China's real crime is that they refuse to be your Uber drivers & Amazon delivery men. They'll develop their economy as they see fit.
China is the only country where govt works for their people and very efficient. West is being run by greedy corporations and elites not by any govt.
covid measure is a success. Even though restrictions for 0-covid policies were hard (only when you were confined which did not happen that much where I am tbh) 5k death and 500k total for a 1.4b country can't be described as a failure.
For Belt and Road, economically idk haven't tried to look that up but politically being able to get a summer and special talk with 150 countries is pretty good. The future will tell if it ends in failure.
Infrastructure investments have to be seen as population benefits rather than just economic benefits. Travel and live in China for that, the convenience of Chinese infrastructure is by far superior to anywhere else I've been and lived, including Japan btw. Even though it costs a lot to maintain... maybe they could try to increase the number of trains? they are not all full but they are definitely not empty.
the rest is mostly forecast, if I recon some Chinese analysts that went on Local TV, there are about 400+m rural peoples, mostly elders, contributing to 3% of the GDP, doing work mostly traditionally and that could be replaced by 25m people if there is proper automation. Quite cynical, but at the country scale, it will not really have a huge impact as long as they can modernize in time.
The job crisis for youth is not due to the lack of jobs but rather the lack of good jobs (see the lying flat movement for that). In China, if there is a problem you would not hear it until the problem actually hits.
also: the property sector crash is "bad" for numbers but has about 0 effect on actual people since it's only housing for investment and mostly foreigners (evergrande for instance was mostly US investment), and tbh I really don't care to see the tofu dreg developer losing their money.
This country still has a lot of challenges ahead and a lot of issues to tackle but the quality of life here is better than in the Western country I was born in.
zero covid failed because the lockdowns weren't meant long term, they were only pushing down the cases until they popped back up again, even Taiwan, NZ, etc gave up in the end because it wasn't working, and their economies suffered from the constant lockdowns, they should have reopened earlier and ride out the wave, also the local governments were afraid of being punished, so they kept locking down entire cities to report low cases
foreign friends dont understand that chiness leader is underworking to upgrade HIGHT TECH, and throwing out estate markets. it means that make people more richer than eve rbefore. thankyou host.
以美元汇率计算毫无意义，因为全球去美元化开始了，以后按照购买力计算中国早就超过 30 万亿美元。
I would be interested to see how would China benefit from a potential war, when people get poor they are pushed to their limit and are more likely to replace their government. So the consequences of their recession on the whole world are a scenerio that we should think about.
Poor people can't even eat, let alone replace their government. You're living in a delusion.
Tales of China's financial collapse have been going around for decades, they have all been wrong.
There are a few major reasons why it is highly likely China is only going to grow further:
-The BRI has been hugely successful and the new infrastructure has opened up export markets across the world.
-China retains control of their central banking and their money supply, meaning they can counter economic imbalances by directing money wherever it is needed.
-Chinese people save a lot of money and their efficient infrastructure keeps their cost of living low, meaning they can absorb economic shocks far better than other countries.
We in the west might scoff at China's policies, but they have proven formidable and we'd do well to learn a thing or two from them.
Rebalancing is impossible in the context of domestic consumption. The problem isn’t low disposable income; it’s that they are running out of the people that do the consuming (20-40 yrs olds) bc of the One Child policy & the side-effects of urbanization. There is no real way forward. You got the demographic problem; the housing bubble, which is basically the Sub Prime crisis on steroids; utter dependencies for food & energy; no naval reach if they opt to lash out. The system will collapse in short order.
how come you didn't mention the most obvious: stop being a totalitarian country with no human rights 😂
That's good for all economy though
why are chinese wages down
End Communism
china isn't communist.
It is a single party dictatorship, orthodox communism was left behind 30 years ago.
@@carmen_13well it is
Good Luck Mate They Would Rather End This World If Push Comes To Shove😂
So the even more TLDR version is: China’s economic crisis could end, but is not possible for various reasons.
Not possible is an incorrect way of saying it. More like very difficult
@@Infinitecreek25 I see absolutely no chance for them to change their mind easily, cause remember Xi is in his early 70s, and we all know how stubborn people in their 70s tend to be. Not much better for folks surrounding him either.
Xi is also staunchly against consumerism. On WeChat a lot of my local news groups have been publishing puff pieces about "western corruption through consumerism". It's getting ridiculous
And there is no China only the CCP
taiwan proves that isn't the case. there's a free, happy and wealthy china that could be if they reject the communist yoke.
So, the CCP is suffering from an underpaid workforce with housing costs a major issue.
Welcome to the club
4 months old and still china is sitting
China economic growth 2023: 5% an economy abt collapse
UK economic growth: 0.5% all is well
GDP per capita (PPP) China - $23,309 from $21,476 in 2022 ( and gdp growth is 3% not 5% )
GDP per capita (PPP) - $56,836 from $54,603 in 2022
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita
you see, adding $10 to $1000 is better than adding $10 to $100, also it is also pretty hard .
and you picked UK , the country ran by morons that made a Brexit
Your mother must be so proud of all your trolling posts.. so very proud 👏
@@Jcolbert123 my mom is really proud of me bcoz I don't watch western bullshit propaganda
I think its quite unfair to make it seem like salaries haven't increased. They've increased by a lot. Perhaps it could be more, just remember they started from a very low base. Also, I don't think the issue with domestic consumption is political. Everyone in the CPC has agreed on it for the past few years now. Its one of their top priorities in their five year plan. It not an easy feat though, ad their social services are lagging. They're also trying to change the mindset to prepare for lower GDP rates. You'll notice a lot of speeches saying high quality growth and all that. They also are trying to remove low cost manufacturing from the coast. You'll notice that inner provinces are reporting the highest growths. There's a reason advanced manufacturing and designed in China are also priorities. Its a long road though.
Im going to go against the grain here and say consumption has fallen of because of changing bevahiors in the covid crisis haven't fully reversed and because of distrust by consumers in certain areas of the economy. Its safe to say that some consumers were defrauded in the real estate debacle of the pre-covid era. One way to increase trust is for the governemt to finish structures that went bankrupt before they finished, liquidate the assets of the defrauding business add to that and return the money lost back to the consumer and then institute reforms (Independent building inspectors, 10 year warranty on construction, bonding, etc).
But even if these are not done chinese domestic consumption will still evolve, although not efficiently because the lack of proprietry diversity and experimentation in technologies in the private sector is not an efficient way to innovate. For instance leaving millions of electric metro cars that wont be used means that the technilogy could be recycled for something else (like batteries being used for city power reserves).
Summary: Greedy people will be greedy, so short-term sacrifices for long-term rebalance won't happen.
Reading the comments, I'm extremely surprised to see how uninformed people are about the real situation in China, thinking that a big collapse is coming or something. The reality is no western analysts not even governments truly knows how China is developing. This is a country which spent almost 500 billion dollars last year on research and development, the effects of that spending will be seen in a few years, and you will be extremely surprised.
6:40 Whatt... This does not make any sense. I mean resistance from business to impede transitions into a different industry sector would be applicable to Western democracy especially US when there is a massive lobby culture, but how would this be applicable to China? If anyone say anything then they will just get "Jack Ma"ed.
And you are kinda right in the sense that it would still be difficult for CPC to coerce the Chinese economy to move up the value-added-chain as it had struggled to do so in the past decades. The only difference here is US is actually doing what CPC wanted done, albeit in a less stable way. It will be difficult but there ARE already signs of this happening with more and more Chinese coming to take over higher value products such as smartphones, drones and EVs. Even when it comes to low value products, China are now developing their own IP and brand names like Li Ning and Miniso.
I think TLDR is starting to wake up to wake up to the true purpose of BRI and BRICS with case 1 and 2. They are to increase exports to resource but dollar-strapped countries who China could then maintain their current trend of tech developments.
与其担心中国还不如担心自己吧
If they don't stop advertising in video, I'll stop watching their videos. More than 1/7 of the videos is ads and I don't want bloody ads!!
I thought the news reported about things that have happened, not things that might happen?
3 way 1 exit, that where hell is
China shouldn't depend on export markets.
having noticed something about my chinese friends. THEY DO NOT LIKE TO PART WITH THEIR MONEY
china's self-sufficiency in tech will be the driving force for jobs and increased GDP growth.
Could this mean an they may feel more pressured to start a world war? That’s what helped America get out of its Great Depression
Only 1 point. You didnt mention hoe GDP works in china. For the rest of the world, GDP is calculated at the end of a financial years as a measure of how the economy has performed. This is not the case in china. Instead the federal government announces what it wants the GDP to be and its up to lower governments to make it happen. Its this forced GDP that is the reason there are ghost cities, massive over investment into usuless infrastructures etc etc. They count to the GDP as government speading thus over inflate the GDP figures. This is an important point that should be included in your explanation.
How about a TL:DR episode on the effects of this on Western economies... how will this affect your audience?
Go with modelling option 1's results - the most likely CCP response.
CoMmUnIsM iS tHe BeSt SyStEm FoR tHe WoRkInG cLaSs
You didn't mention the most important factor - China's demographic collapse. It's not just the fact that the workers don't have enough money to spend - there are simply not enough consumers. The population is shrinking in an alarming rate, and it's not gonna get any better in this economic climate.
Also not mentioned are the utter disaster of the belt and road initiative, the dictatorship of Xi which does not allow for informed decision making, the deep corruption, inability to attract foreign workers and many more... In short, China is done.
中国是有很多问题 但是看看美国的债务吧
我们有一样的问题 中国也可以吸引亚洲的移民
You forgot the bigest problem facing China, the impending demographic collapse due to the one child policy and urbanization. Hard to fix an economy when your consumer base is cut almost in half in a period of 10 to 15 years, along with the labor shortage.
I'd have gone for President Xi being their biggest problem
But you are probably right
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why can't china just go in debt and loan more. the usa has like trillions in debt
Stop giving them ideas
It’s hard to see how any of these work. China probably can’t increase exports. They’re already uncompetitive against countries like Vietnam and Mexico and companies / countries don’t trust them as a supply chain partner. The world was already moving away from China before their current crisis. Increasing worker pay will crush Chinese exports before consumer social habits could take hold. Plus high youth unemployment and demographic doom mute and then undermine this sort of strategy. And there’s no guarantee they would recover from a Great Depression like economic cleansing. Beyond the social and political chaos it would create, Chinas demography will create an ever growing drag on growth.
yeah the big problem is that China is stuck at the worst possible time, with the world economy slowing down a lot, they don't really have any good options left, so they are facing a national depression or worse outcome
Worst analysis of the problem ..China has highest household savings not lowest .there is low confidence not low savings .
2 more weeks
Yeah, things aren't looking good for the Chinese.
I legit think option 1 will likely happen. Option 2 is worst case option since Xi isn't interesting in big stimulus if the economy crashes. Option 3 is just wishful thinking
0:39 amateur journalism detected
Another issue is that Xi is very ideologically against consumption seeing it as "western decadence" so him agreeing to increase consumption would be unlikely.
Where do you get this idea? Chinese state media has been shouting about consumption driven growth for a while now
All you have said are just theories. As an economist nobody can predict the future of an economic not even economist.
economies are partly driven by those speculations though; they're not in a vacuum from the economy itself. if people don't have trust in an economy's future, it will likely come true from the lack of faith from people investing.
Thanks. Absent in your analysis is the "elephant in the room". E.G., Demographics. Currently, 1 productive/value add worker is providing economic production to support 2.25 people in China. This will rise to 1 worker supporting 5 people by 2023, 7 years from now. Most economic strategies have no models for dealing with this. Ditto for solutions.
And everyone was telling us we should be worried about china lol. Sorry nobody is replacing America anytime soon. Not china not india not the eu not brics.
During a war, once a naval blockade is imposed on China, the Chinese economy will collapse because more than 40% of its economy is based on trade. This is why China will never become the next superpower and will remain only a regional power in Asia.
You so right 👍
America is already on a course for self-destruction.
A competitor for America is absolutely needed
You seem to underestimate the real reasons why you should be worried. The reason why America leads the world is not its army, or its currency, it is the technological dominance of the US. The only battlefield that matters is the technological one and if you're smart enough to inform yourself, you will quickly realize what a competitor China really is on that front.
@@Charles-qe7kc China like India always be only a first class power in Asia.
China produced more than all of the g7 last year…
Two type people C.C.P or part member and civilian called leeks that u can harvest any time . I learn china insight RUclips channel topic in side china and culture
nonsense
How could the Chinese economy be bad when they are still selling military equipment to Russia😮.
It's their real estate sector That's dragging down growth it has nothing to do with Russia they're having their own version of the US subprime mortgage meltdown.
Add a fourth way! A continual decline for the next 100 or so years.
Great video mate, love your content, please make top comment
What makes anyone think the crisis will end??
Where u get this kind of news from gordon chang 😂😂😂 Chinese economic growth will be around 5.5 percent
Chin’s domestic consumption is not small, it is just because China has a oversized export industry; if tomorrow China doesn’t export at all then it’s domestic consumption will be 50% of its GDP on par with other EU countries.
The Chinese economic model is fundamentally different from the operating models of European and American economies! That is, the Chinese government is the future strategic planner of the economy, and officials are the executors and implementers of the economy! If there are problems with the grassroots economy, the Chinese government will provide support! The Chinese government will bear all responsibilities for social public resources!! The adverse social events caused by capitalists will result in legal proceedings and confiscation of all assets! No capitalist in China dares to confront the central government! Capitalists in China are only one of the elements for developing productivity!!! At a certain time, capitalists will also be eliminated by the times! Don't use your economic methods to speculate about the Chinese economy! Because your economic logic is too naive!
Chinese spy: go ooon