Recession Or The Next Great Depression?
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- Опубликовано: 19 май 2024
- Many economists are forecasting a recession but some people say we are entering a depression which is much worse. In this video, I contrast the two and look at the reasons behind slowing global growth. I also discuss why central banks could make things worse and how this could affect investors. And I end the by giving you my own opinions about the risks I see ahead.
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Timestamps
00:00 Introduction
00:35 Depression vs Recession
03:17 The Bad Stuff
05:38 Synchronized Slowdown
07:33 The Fed’s Wrecking Ball
10:22 Forecasts
14:02 Accidents
17:08 Conclusion
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I really appreciate your thoughtful analysis and admire you for going against the trend of RUclips to state you don't expect a full blown depression. I'm not sure I agree with you, but it takes a lot of guts to go against the trend on that one and I hope you're right.
Best overview i have seen on the net period. No gobbly gook phrases to appear to be clever. Great use of common sense english. This guy is clever in his simplicity. Very well done. Hats off toyou.
While this content is insightful and very interesting, I think a major reason as to why people gravitate towards the idea that a depression is likely is because they are seeing their standards of living drastically diminishing over the course of months to a year and it subjectively feels to an increasing number of people like the economy is going down a path that is legitimately scary where they own nothing and everything is owned by big corporations making all the profit and increasing the economic prosperity ''on paper'' only for a few.
It may not appear as though there is a depression on economic data like GDP and such because they don't deal with granularity, these numbers deal with entire economies, but the reality on the ground is that most people are living in a time where housing is unaffordable to a shocking degree, where salaries do not keep up with the increases on the bills and where the household economic situation is so bad that we live in an era with the lowest fertility rate in recorded history for most advanced economies. This is unsustainable and this is why, in many cases, people are somewhat hoping for a depression, because it would reflect accurately what their eveyday life is telling them which is that they are getting poorer rapidly.
You seem to have explained 5% wage gains
and 9% inflation increases, pretty well.
I was around and studied Economics before the advent of the Fiat Dollar.
I watched the US Highway system deteriorate into a scary pile of crap.
I have had the discussion with people in all areas of North America.
Most seem to understand the reality you present.
Jamie Diamon recently said, get ready for an "Ecvonomic Hurricane",
He was there when they delayed the last one.
It seems like good advice?
Back in 2018 societal collapse was predicted to happen by 2040 if we kept going the way we did. Personally I think that prediction was wrong and we are in a collapse now. The collapse is slow and gradual. I think This is why everything seems to be getting worse and i hope im wrong
@@samoke4527 As a person reviews the homeless problems that seem to be present in every town in the Nation, you begin to understand that the economic depression began years ago?
They just have found methods of disguising it wit clever euphemisms and catchy phrases.
The Wealthy have been defended from exposure as long as possible to allow them to inject more "Liquidity" into the Cash stream.
The use of ideas like Supply Chain Interruptions are just snappy ways of keeping the elimination of Producers from the market from looking like legitimate Providers.
The greed that enables Wall Street to continue without actual panic is insured by media for the sake of providing a stream of Commercial support.......
@@danielhutchinson6604 he’s changed the family name from Diamond to Dimon
@@sciagurrato1831 David Rockefeller seemed to assume that running Grandad's Bank was just some Birthright.
Diamon treats it like it is the US Government.
I assume that Capitalism is facing a struggle that even seem to make $5 billion fines seem insignificant?
Thanks for the concise breakdown of the differences between recession and depression. It's been a while since I was fully into economics.
Outstanding videos. Among the best on RUclips. Thank you for your hard work.
Wow. This wat absolutely the best summary of the macro environment I’ve seen so far. Thanks!
Thanks Ramin for the insightful analysis. I look forward to the next one.
Thank you for the hard work and effort put in by your team in producing this (and your other) video(s).
Much appreciated @Roland Ashdown
The UK is really going to suffer hard the next few years, imagine sterling goes below the dollar 😭
Its the price worth paying for freedom! :)
@@agentsmith2798 I really hope not, I'm 70% in cash in the UK waiting for good entry point to the global market.
Might be better iff just going all in now but my luck would be markets go down and pound recovers leaving me 50% down lmfao.
@@FlyingFun. the only thing that really is beginning to look cheap are bonds, but of course they could still have a lot lower to go. Maybe you drip feed your money into the markets and have done bond exposure. You could just put money into a vanguard lifestrategy fund, feed it into the 60% equity version, and then you'll get done bond exposure at lower prices. At the end of the day nobody really knows what's going to happen in the economy or the markets, bonds or equities.
I don't know, my great depression has been going on for years! 😂
😂😂😂😂😂
😂 seek help
@@arangotan Life: there's no cure
@@arangotan there's no hope, our condition is terminal
Thanks Ramin and your take on matters is far more settling than some would have you believe. I must say I always look to you for balanced reasoning as opposed to the cherry pickers who wish to create their own doom-laden forecasts based on one fact they think represents the entire economic situation.
Incredible video, thank you. In 2009 I had no cash to invest, as was buying a home. Would love your thoughts on how to maximise potential for any cash we can put into the market, esp with the pound so low against USD.
Very informative as always. Keep up the great work 😀
Thanks! 👍 @Martin H
No one ever seems to talk about the interest payments on the US national debt. If you raise interest rates to 5%, your interest payment a loan is 1.5 trillion on the current debt per year. No one ever talks about the 30 trillion, because everyone knows the United States can’t pay that off. I would say is that this is the fog before the storm. And because of that debt, the storm is going to last a very long time.
While interest costs go up, there is an offset because they are using inflated currency to repay it.
If inflation and gdp growth is greater than treasury rates, then it’s inflating away the debt owe by the government relative to the revenue they collect
@@TonyTrupp Then why does the debt to GDP ratio keep rising? Why isn’t it falling?
The 1930's depression unemployment are measured differently than modern unemployment, so that would be more equivalent to a ~15% unemployment rate by today's standards.
What was horrible about the 1930s unemployment though was that it was closer to 50-60% in cities. Which really is bonkers to think about. It wasn't that only you lost your job, but everyone who may be in your support structure of family, church, and neighborhood were likely all taking turns being jobless and struggling.
Another thing that I think is interesting about today vs the 1930s is just how much more technology we have at our disposal. I don't believe this makes us immune from depression, but I think this will increasingly decouple the business and financial markets from the job market. If covid taught businesses anything, it is that people are unreliable. They get sick, they quiet quit, they run off at the drop of a hat to the highest bidder, or straight-up quit without notifying anyone. Machines have their problems, and are expensive to deploy, but once they start working, they work 24/7 with less and less down-time as the tech has improved. So the short-term play has been to over-hire to make up for the unreliability, and start deploying automation as quickly as possible.
So then what happens as this crisis persists? Will the over-hiring of workers overcorrect as recession/depression sets in... but then will it be a largely jobless recovery replacing a lot of workers with automation of one sort or another? We are already seeing a huge push to bring a lot of manufacturing back to the US right now with completely unreasonable job estimates for when our new chip fabs come online. Amazon has been pushing commercials like crazy essentially implying that if you don't want to move up into a programming position then you need not apply.
And then how do the government and financial sectors react to that kind of change? Do we go through a deflationary cycle? Do we even know what that looks like in a modern world? Do we see a massive increase in taxes and government support to jobless individuals?
Honestly, I don't think any of this will be horrible long-term... but it will be some weird times ahead.
How do you create profits when you have no consumers?
Tech makes communication easier.
It can not create wealth.
that takes the Consumers and they need jobs to remain capable of buying.
Keynes told us that shit long ago.
Economies do not serve the people when the People are forced to serve the economy.
Capitalism now seems to fail to meet the needs of 70% of the planets population.
Thanks for the balanced information once more. The positive side is that when you have a combination of negative factors for the economy there is a chance that some of them get solved which would improve the situation. Like covid restrictions being lifted in China or Fed rate hikes actually start working to lower the inflation.
Unlikely China will lift any restrictions any time soon
Thank you Ramin, great content as usual.
Actually, your final remark: "It is unlikely we are going to have a depression" makes me think it is even more likely :)
As you already said the following in the past:
In 2020 - I don't think the money printing will cause massive inflation
in 2021 - I don't think we are going to have a recession
We all know it is impossible to foresee the future, but actually the signals all points towards a depression triggered by the primary and secondary order effects you described.
The printing of money did not create inflation.
Removing a third of the products from the market seems to have done that?
Hi, I'm the manager of a third-party advertising company and we've seen your past videos. Whether it's your popularity or your video style, it's great. I sincerely invite you to cooperate and pay you a satisfactory commission.
Great point. Ramin is also not factoring in that high energy prices are putting companies on the verge of closure! Even if EU gets the gas that will be at much higher prices than the original Russian supply & European products will not be competitive in the world market.
I notice your reply does not have a heart. ;-)
@@supermash1 Everyone has some idea, Mine is to abandon Capitalism as a measure of value.
It seems to create corruption and War.
We can live a long and fruitful existence without it......
How is that for a Heart?
Brilliant analysis as ever. In my view the bad news hasn’t kicked in. Corporate profits need to tank next which they will and then I wouldn’t be surprised if we see 2000 in the SP500. Previous crashes have always dropped 50% from peak. There’s a lot of pain to come yet.
Diamon was in the room when Bernanke and Paulson delayed the effects of the 2008 event.
That is not happening this time......
"Prepare for an Economic Hurricane." .....Jamie Diamon
@Jase This one might be the end of Capitalism?
A good, basic discussion. Understandable to many, but not very deep.
This is a very level headed analysis, thank you. But it is also important to observe that the analysis relies on forecasts that have been occasionally wrong and revised downward, especially recently. For example US GDP from the Atlanta Fed from several quarters out did not forecast two negative quarters of growth in 1H22, but we got them. So these things can change rapidly.
There is a lot of "fear porn" out there and the expert projections may be correct, but the experts have also been wrong in the recent past (e.g. transitory inflation). Given this is a period of upheaval and disruption, the experts being wrong seems more possible.
Thank you!
You're welcome @Matt
Really enjoyed your analysis.
Glad you enjoyed it @Yevgeniy Yermoshin
Thank you
The Oracle of Ramin is the calm before the storm. Buckle up kids!
Thank you brilliant.
You're welcome @Mustafa Ince
Thanks very much Ramin! I'm quite disheartened by the recent drop in the pound vs USD. Though the S&P is near June lows, the purchase price is now significantly higher for UK investors. Do you have any thoughts/insight into this?
Hi @G Tor I think the sterling weakness may recover once we see what the Bank of England is going to do and if the UK government gives some explanation of their plan and addresses some of the concerns that investors have. Saying that markets can be ignored or that you don't comment on markets is a huge mistake. Let's hope the government spends a bit of time appeasing investors... Thanks, Ramin.
Looking forward to record high interest rates from the BoE to combat the Truss gov idiocy.
Which I dare say the Truss government will use as an excuse to take back control of interest rating setting. A very bad idea!
🤣
3:27 "quite rightly" is a controversial - and, I'd argue, incorrect - description there, Ramin.
One for another video, perhaps?
Not a big deal … but I would like to understand why in the graph at 1:48 the red line peaks at about 21% or 22% yet the text says 24.9% (and oral description says 25%)
Awesome content, thanks a lot!
My pleasure @M
Excellent content as always, Ramin. This is one that I'm really hoping ages well! 😄
I hope so too @Alastair Ford
The unemployment figure from 1933 (24,9%) does not correspond to the chart (cca 21%) - which data is right?
The longer a recession is avoided the worse it is when it does come . Recessions are a natural and needed part of the cycle in the economy . Without them waste spirals and innovation is stifled
THIS is why the internet was created-- a free platform for detailed, informed, and nuanced analysis. Incredible work that I wish would be highlighted by the algorithm. You may prove to be wildly incorrect about the future (I hope you're not), but the reasoning is sound and gives us a platform for honest and productive discussion.
Hi @Jordan Shank thanks that's really kind of you! Ramin.
My pension pot has gone down by £1000 in 6 wks, will that come back or do I cash it in and do something else with it. I'm relying on this NOW as I am 68 and retired. That's money Out of My pocket, so the government should increase the savings and investment threshold.
Great and informative video!! Thank you!!
You are so welcome @Panagiotis Anastasopoulos
The concept of the unemployment in 1930 to now is flawed because the way they calculated unemployment has changed drastically. It also doesn't count for underemployment, which is way more an issue now.
Hi excellent reality check
I think it's only in hindsight when we call it a depression. I've read that during, it's just called a deep recession by those living through it
in the early 90s the US bureau of labor redid unemployment calculations so you cant comepare the great depression vs now as Bush sr cooked the books for political gain
Situation is global.. so depresion is on the way.
I was hoping you might have mentioned banks (Nat West LLOyds,Barclays). Do they suffer in a recession? I thought higher interest rates favoured the banks but they are not doing very well.
Bottom line is, as always, no one knows for sure. Which makes sense - current events are bigger than the economy, and outcomes are still undecided.
True. During a great depression, many people tend to be happier with what they have rather than craving for more stupid stuff nobody really needs. Maybe mankind just needs a great depression to focus on the important things in life
Thank you very much Ramin for your interesting analyses and useful considerations
Glad you like them @A R
Letting a committee decide if a recession is happening is something out of "idiocracy".
It's a deliberate obfuscation to instill public confidence. The idiots are not the fed . The idiots are those who accept political messaging wholesale
I can't read the first reply
Why? Seems like a somewhat subjective thing.
@@kingkong8974 the first reply was probably reported as a scam 🤷
@@EverythingCameFromNothing in that case send me money and I'll invest for myself and I'll show you periodic screen shots of how I do
Great analysis - although I'm holding the position that we have price inflation and monetary deflation, with the price inflation directly correlated with supply chain issues. The Fed is fighting inflation by tightening, which isn't needed. In fact, it will further harm the global economy by making a moderate recession much, much deeper.
I disagree. The inflation is a result of the money printng in the pandemic. The supply chain issues is the cherry on top. We need a hawkish fed to cool inflation down. Increasing inflation over many years is way worse than a recession. The worst case would be: Still high inflation AND recession
@@etakarinae248 - then why is monetary velocity destroyed right now? The Fed can print all it wants, and carry most of it on its $9 trillion balance sheet - but without velocity in the market we have MAJOR monetary deflation.
Chart at 9:00 is out of date.
FED is at 3.0% after raising 0.75%
BoE is at 2.25% after raising 0.5%
So the gap is widening further and the £ XE is getting punished.
Hi @TDubya true! I made the video at the start of the week but things move quickly at the moment. I covered the Fed meeting in a LiveStream immediately afterwards so please forgive me! Thanks, Ramin.
Seems plausible, can't wait for your video on the budget we've just had.
Wonder if you saw Jeremy Siegel ("Stock for the Long Run") on CNBC commenting on Fed for their policies not being based on data, upset is an understatement, can be found on Twitter.
the last time we had a pandemic we didnt avoid a depression and back then we didnt have record asset prices inflation and record debt a deep historic non depression but memorable recession like 2008 is almost doubling back conservative because it could also arguably be worse then any downturn in the 20th and 21st century dude needs to make money on youtube so i get it
thank you for your amazing analysis as usual !
Hi @Andrew Greenan thank you very much! Ramin
@@Pensioncraft appreciate that you have taken your time to reply 😊
Brilliant to have a balanced view of where we are at the moment. Looking forward to analysis of the UK gov latest policies on tax cuts v. interest rates rising, and what the Bank of England may be forced to do.
The over-riding problem is DEBT, both national and global, along with increasing interest rates. The US and the world cannot support $300 trillion of global debt. The US debt is about to go to $40 trillion in 5 years while interest rates continue to rise putting more pressure on debt. The debt bubble cannot be addressed as we have bypassed every opportunity to do so. It will now get out of hand and ruin the economy forcing many financial institutions that hold debt to go bankrupt. It is going to get ugly and there will not be a recovery from this over a decade. Many people and institutions will be ruined by it. Does anyone see it coming?
IF we measured Unemployment like they did in the 1930s than we might be Horrified where we are going .
It’s not a depression, just eight consecutive quarters of less than positive growth. Wow!
regression depression or contraction...i feel so sick already
This video provides a lot of information and interacts with a lot of issues. However, in my judgment one factor may have been missed and that is long term interest rates. Inflation is going to force interest rates higher which will lead to a significant decline in the stock markets and assets. This will lead to loss of jobs. The big question is, where will interest rates go? They will end up at zero and this time round, the evidence suggests that quantitative easing has run its course. Worse, there is evidence that the fed is going to undertake quantitative tightening. How the West has existed for the last 10 years is unsustainable. The fact is that the current existence is unsustainable and something has to break. If the Fed does not continue the trend of injecting liquidity into the markets surely the end result must be a depression.
You call 25% unemployment depression? In Spain we call it structural unemployment
😁....😬
Thanks Ramin(@pensioncraft) could you do (or point to if you already have) a comparison of types of bond funds. I am thinking of switching from lifestrategy 100 to lifestrategy 60 for next year but don’t understand the pros and cons of the different bond funds/trackers.
A depression only happens with a systemic financial calamity.
Basically, if this continues as is, if your average successful 'business' which requires lots of cheap, reliable energy to stay that way suddenly can't access that vital energy then things could go t*ts pretty quickly without state support.
Countries are far more complex and diverse of course than companies, but it doesn't exactly paint a rosy picture does it?
Why is Turkey index attractive when inflation there is apocalyptic?
You'll have to wait until Christmas arrives
Thank you thank you - just excellent❤
You are so welcome @Jimbob
good vid !
Thanks @Robb Murphy
I'm just going to keep investing until retirement.
What if we end up like Japan, their market still hasn’t recovered from the 1980s
@@wread1982 don't invest in just one market.
@@andrewdobson if you don't mind, where are you investing. Are you using passive funds
@@fredatlas4396 it's passive investing in a couple of different ETFs in an ISA wrapper. global shares.
You are smart. This is nonsense.
I don't think you mentioned that unemployment (and also inflation) are measured very differently now than they were in the 1930's. Real unemployment, as well as real inflation, would have larger numbers if they were measured the same today as in the 1930's.
To really understand these things we need to compare apples to apples, as difficult as that may be.
'every currency eventually goes to it's intrinsic worth-zero' Voltaire.
All planned of course.....build back better.....
With markets crashing, inflation soaring, and the Fed imposing a large interest-rate hike, treasury yields are rapidly rising, implying more losses for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the current volatile market? I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $125k bond/stock portfolio.
I disagree with the way gobal GDP is cast. It includes government money printing. I think GDP and CPI shouldn't take into account government spending.
The deepest, darkest cynic in me would say that these events represent quite an opportunity and excuse to start to unwind the huge amounts of debt in the bloated Western monetary systems, but luckily I'm not that cynical.
'To infinity and beyond!'🚀
This ends the same way 1930s depressions ended. Global war.
And the start of new world order.
Great analysis, thank you
No worries @Neil Cook
50% of the comments are spam, ramin has some work to do this morning.
Hi @Simon Y this filter gets most of them and I submit any that it misses to improve the filter github.com/ThioJoe/YT-Spammer-Purge
I don't have any idea how BOE governors are chosen or removed but seems like there might be a coming war between Truss and BOE.
Independent central bankers are in a strong position. Mess with them and your currency collapses, like Turkey.
A. G. Smith
The BOE is, supposed to be independent of the government. The last Labour government gave back power to the bank of England, so polititions couldn't meddle, to stop them playing politics with the BOE interest rate. Just look at what happened when john major whacked up interest rates in the 1990's, up to 15% or more and left them up until a lot of businesses shut down, many people lost their jobs, homes, everything they had worked for
Hi @A.G. Smith ultimately the government can do whatever it wants e.g. scrap central bank independence altogether. But at the moment the Bank of England's independence is all that's holding yields down and maintaining the UK's credibility so that's unlikely to change. Legally it's the monarch who chooses the BoE governor with advice from the Prime Minister but in practice it's the Prime Minister. It's a civil service job so they do the first round interviews and the job is advertised e.g. in the Economist. You can see the process in this Reuters article www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-boe-appointment-factbox-idUKKCN1IM1F8 Thanks, Ramin.
Isn't this a great opportunity to buy a UK Gilts ETF? prices are rock bottom historically speaking. In the end it's a developed government bond not some overpriced tech company.
Global demographic trends(aging) lean towards a resumption of deflation.
isn't Japan's inflation 2%?
Hi @1% at a Time for August it's 3% tradingeconomics.com/japan/inflation-cpi Thanks, Ramin.
Thank you for the video. The "black swan" in this global downturn is likely China's real estate crash. I don't think a depression is likely, but I do think that a very large economic downturn in China is the most likely scenario to trigger it given my limited understanding of their real estate ponzi scheme and banking issues.
Tree of Life Prep
Fredricksburg VA
Shhhhhhhh 🤫
Let them buy a bit more, it’s hard to pull the rug on them if they are tipped off.
He would be more convincing if he gave an opinion on the cause of the Great Depression.
1:50 definitely something not right with that chart lol
Jerome Powell 2023: "Depressions are transitory"
Everything is so globally broken that anything other than a very deep recession won't cut it.
real GDP is negative -> GDP growth rate 3.9% - 9% inflation = -5.1%😎 I call that a catastrophe = depression🙈
Yes, I found this video confusing as I was scratching my head the whole time wondering if he was talking about nominal or real GDP growth.
@@dennis6325 He's part of "The Establishment" so has to keep up appearances. An ex investment bank bod according to his bio !
Florian, search for real gross domestic product" on the FRED site. The real annual growth figure for Q1 was 3.5%, for Q2 it's 1.7%.
@@chrisf1600 well, CPI is not real life data. I recommend shadow stats👍
@@celestecanyon It's true that I was on the other side therefore I know the tricks😉👍
these are not exactly the 'salad days' for the UK.
There is no depression without a recession first. A depression is sub trend growth, which was caused by a recession. There is no either/or.
I think there is an increasing risk of unprecedented de-coupling of the BRICS+ group and the developed economies where energy and resources return to be fundemental drivers of economic success. Inflation caused by increasing resource costs and hardening BRICS currencies will continue to hit developed economies. The petrodollar paradygm will evaporate and give way to a resource backed currency.
Japan high inflation? Relative to who? Japanese inflation rate sitting at only 3%.
Hi @Joel White, I should have made that clearer, I meant relative to its own history. Thanks, Ramin.
great video
I'm a newbi and have had 3 margin calls and lost some shares. They keep heading down and obviously I must have bought at wrong time. I have meta shares left, should I keep putting money in to keep them?
Don’t use margin, especially as we are in a volatile market. Get rid of margin, buy shares with your own money and gradually DCA undervalued stocks, not current overpriced market.
I think individual shares are a bit of a gamble, a lot of people recommend buying a World tracker ETF and drip feeding the money in, eg a bit each month. I was reading about Jim Cramer who does a TV slot on CNBC and he gives advice about buying individual shares but he actually has most of his own money in ETFs.
Will UK gilts recover their value if we go into a recession?
Panic to Depression to Great Recession ...
"A rose by any other name ..."
Land, food, water,truck,cash,gold,silver, guns,ammo, no debit,solar,keep your mouth closed,several phones,training, voting, keep smiling, it’s a start!
Is negative growth the same as positive shrinkage?
If you include inflation and debt, have the economies of the UK, the USA, etc really grown?
There was a time when we " made it here", we had jobs for everyone and the products were of high quality, then the 1% wanted everything. Now Inflation drives prices up and if Inflation is high and jobs disappear by the millions we are in a recession and maybe headed for a Depression…So be careful with your money. It may take decades to get back on pay again. Luck to all.. I've seen folks make huge 7 figure profit in a crashing market and pull it off much easily in a bull market Unequivocally the crash/recession is getting somebody somewhere rich...
On occasion you can beat the market with blind luck, but I wouldn't depend on it. Having a science background there is a saying, 'Luck favors the informed', I've found it to be true, allowed me in great part to retire early...
I’ve been on both end of the spectrum, I was lnvesting on my own for about 3years, did my own study and analysis before actually buying, things became rather difficult after the pandemic which was right about when I reached out to a portfoIio-advisor for guidance, It’s been over 2 years and I’ve scaled up a stagnant reserve of $280K to $700k in just about 24months.
Tight labour market? Participation rate is only 62 percent. Back in 2000 the participation rate was closer to 68 percent. That makes an unemployment rate of 9% when compared to the year 2000.
If the pattern holds as you say, do you foresee several Gamestop opportunities where the shorts get squeezed in a systematic group manner?