Dave Lee on Tesla Investor Day (Super Cut PART 1)
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- Опубликовано: 2 окт 2024
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I worked at Tesla starting in July of 2017 as an Operations Analyst out of the Bethlehem, PA distribution center facility and left as a Program Manager based out of Austin, TX as of September 2021. I spent most of my time in the distribution and supply chain organizations.
Before Tesla, I was a Director of Business Intelligence and Pricing at the largest Pet Food & Supply distributor in the US, Phillips Pet Food & Supplies based out of Easton, PA. My wife and I also owned a small business in Bethlehem, PA between 2016 and 2019.
My thoughts are my own and are not representative of everyone who currently works, or has worked at Tesla.
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A big clue about the Tesla manufacturing capability was when Sandy Munro was told by the owner of Idra that in order to make a profit on his investment in building these 6 and 9 ton machines, he would have to build 12 to 40 of them. I my opinion, That answer skirted his Non-disclosure agreement with Tesla about How many did Tesla buy? Cool information 🏆
How many does Tesla have now? 3?
12 to 40 is quite a range
Dave and Rob are my go to for accurate information.
And Farzad
The limiting factor for me. I like neutral and high quality information as opposed to more speculative hype.
I say “premium” for Tesla, not luxury. Except for S&X there’s no luxury in a Tesla. But it is premium over all others.
Same with iPhone. It’s not luxury but rather premium.
That’s how Tesla can bring everything a buyer could want from Tesla into the least expensive models.
Bring the safety, the software reliability, responsiveness and OTA updates, best possible Supercharger speeds etc but just use a smaller LFP pack to bring cost to ~25k before $7500 consumer tax credit. I say 200-210 miles for the small city car version of the next gen small vehicle. A Hertz/Uber version (w/wheel&pedals) and a robotaxi version would come later.
Amortize all tooling w/that scale in kind and $25k car build cost could be $20k or less.
there's no new model guys , just a cheaper model3
Revamp will be enough to continue to accelerate its volumes tremendously
that could actually be possible.
but my money is still more on a new model. because they want to continue to scale like crazy, and altough a refreshed model 3 would work for one or two years, a new model that they produce for extreme mass market, would take a few years to ramp up. so they need to do the release now to avoid a bottleneck later. and they hinted at a smaller model a few times already. and what would be the best time to show it to the public?
... except if they just say "the model 3 costs 25,000 usd now". that would be brutal to every other auto maker 😆
I think investor day will be a much bigger picture than the next gen car platform. Is like to hear discussion about global clean energy and integration of all room companies
Investors day will give us a lot of unknowns however, I think it will be far less than the general consensus.
Next level thinking aka time traveling by Dave. Basically a summary of the investor day blueprint before it happened 💯💯💯🙏
Tesla's build quality does feel like cheap trim though... I say this as a tech enthusiast... I love the tech which is world class but Honda from 10 years ago feels better built. I worry this will get worse with a true economy car.
So, the Mexico plant should be built by February 2025? Is that fair to say?
I'm hoping for a truly compact car for the European and Asian market. Having more than two seats in a car is a waste of mass most of the time. If Tesla released a Smart car equivalent with the range the Chinese can do already, but with their manufacturing ability they could build a lot of them quickly. Fastest way to get an enormous number of vehicles on the market is to be able to cast the entire body in one go, use smaller batteries, have fewer components etc.
Sadly, I believe Elon is infected with the American enormous car woke-mind virus and likely won't do a small car. A bit like Steve Jobs who was obsessed with things like one button mice, floppy disk drives with no eject button, keyboards without number pads, not having styluses on tablets, and computer monitors without VESA mounts and not using USB-C just because it's faster and provides more power and is infinitely better. All of which he was always wrong about.
That said, I'd be hugely excited if they ever did a Ford Fiesta, Fiat 500 or Smart car sized Tesla. Smart electric drivers pay a fortune for those things and they're not as good as the Chinese versions. Tesla could easily beat them, charge the same, and make insane profits as a result.
Agree with Dave... it is not in Tesla's interests to make a "plain, vanilla" car. They are unlikely to announce a new (lower-priced) model right now. They hardly have enough batteries to meet demand on existing products - a cheaper car will have huge demand, which they will not be able to fulfil.
I for one never doubted Tesla after purchasing my 2012 MS85. I have always believed in Elon's mission and that is why I invested in Tesla at IPO in 2010, and am currently on my 4th Tesla vehicle (2022 MSLR) with CT on order. Tesla for the Win!
I think Dave is correct. Tesla is not an economy car company. Why go after cheap?
Tesla's stated goal is not to make money, but to fill the world with electric transport. Making money in the early years only facilitates this goal. He is not working for the hanger on investors.
Apple has the iPhone pro, iPhone and iPhone SE. Why can’t Tesla have the S/X, 3/Y and compact?
20 million 🚀
I remember a comment somewhere on a RUclips video, probably around 2019, saying that the Model 3 looked like just another Dodge Dart/Neon. I didn’t respond to him because I knew he didn’t have a clue at all about what the Model 3 could do, and the future that Tesla planned to implement. I bet whoever he was that he still still doesn’t have a clue and still thinks the same.
Toyota is finished if Dave is right as they are the King of economy cars.
Toyota is finished. They refuse to see the future and commit 100% to BEV's.
Just a thought, In my mind,the generation Three platform is about manufacturing Innovations to enable tesla to scale massively,
it is form factor agnostic, as a matter fact the first Generation three vehicle is probably the cyber truck🤔IMO Just a thought, In my mind,the generation Three platform is about manufacturing Innovations to enable tesla to scale massively,
it is form factor agnostic, as a matter fact the first ,Generation three vehicle is probably the cyber truck🤔IMO
meanwhile today our TSLA has taken yet another nosedive....
If Tesla can recreate the VW GTI, it will be awesome. They are only $24k, and very nice. I love mine
I love Dave Lee's brain. He is extremely good at analysis.
Another Tesla zealot echo chamber. No critical analysis at all.
Consumers are desperate for affordable transportation. Tesla can monetize FSD and charging which enables them to sell at a lower initial cost. Hopefully Tesla brings it with a $25k EV, I doubt economy buyers will be upset if they aren’t as luxurious as more expensive models.
Yes exactly. Gimme a hatch with cloth seats. I’m down for that.
I just watched the whole almost 2 hour video and now you super cut it 😔
Is it realistic that Tesla will announce a bold energy plan? Setting a goal of providing 25% of the US electrical energy storage and supply by 2030? Special credits for producing megapacks and the desire to put in operation by utility providers and corporate America. Just thinking about a much broader development in areas that is not specifically automotive.
Tesla real world AI combined with Transformer Large Language Model (LLM) AI = general function Tesla bot?
when doing any comparisons, between Tesla and others, for cCorolla as an example; safety should be one of the first mentions for buyers not the afterthought. imo
I’m just curious to see if it will be introduced to the US market. I hope so! ❤❤❤
You guys are great. Love the content. But a question I have that doesn't seem to get discussed is the same question factoring in time and inflation. Right now frozen in time the sweet spot is that $25k-$30k car. ten years ago the average price of a car sold was around $30k. today the average price is $48k. 50%+ difference over ten years. Tesla/ elon look to the future. They are not going to aim to produce a car at the $25k sweet spot today that will be available 3-5 years from now. THey will aim to hit the sweet spot in price that will exist 5 years from now. To announce a car that will hit todays sweet spot number for the future doesn't make sense to me. The current price of the lowest model 3 is probably the cheapest they should make a car because in 3 years that will be the sweet spot as the average price goes up over time. So today the sweet spot is $25k and in ten years it could be $30-40k as the average price goes up to $60k+. which means they just need to keep the car costs down as time and inflation move up and switch the increase in income to SAAS for the car the way iphone does. old phones never had SAAS and iphone changed that. ICE cars don't have SAAS and tesla changed that. The aim to make a car that hits the sweet spot of now doesn't make sense for a target 5 years from now. Rather the platform announcement will be that they will decrease costs while increasing margins. New models they offer will be for certain needs like a van or hatchback but not a price target. a use target. prices stay the same over time. margins increase over time. SAAS and other inclome streams from using the car will be what makes them money not the sale price of the car. They will offer the same luxury high end car quality and teslas profits will come from the efficiency of the manufacturing platform and SAAS.
maybe nobody read my comment or prediction but i basically called it. No new model. but they will decreae costs and increase margins. the improved manufacturing on the current model 3 IS the new model 3 is th $25k car a few years from now.
I have poor hearing. So it’s nice to be able to hear Dave.
Elon said tons on Twitter... Tons of what? Color crayons?
Dave reminiscing the days when he was a multimillionaire (before he became a billionaire). Oh ya, he talks about tesla too.
I think they’ll do mx30 with Tesla technology and battery. Till they’ve more factories
IMO investor day will be a disappointment, just like cyber rodeo and AI day and FSD. And the stock will tank hard. 😢
Haha
Yeap sell sell now!
I do believe there is a good chance that the stock drops tomorrow. That just means I will be buying more. 😉
So I can buy more hoping to get some more at 195
It might drop, but as a many yrs long term holder what I learned is it will go back up, you just cant panic day to day. It’s a long term hold. Patience is key here.
Tesla needs to buy Aptera
Great idea
I got a bolt euv. Tesla could copy it specs wise and I be happy. Or go all out cheap and make a Yaris level interior
No way! Tesla needs to keep their safety standards. Don’t make crap.
@@CraigandMandy1 to be fair I assume he meant just make a budget vehicle, but without the dangerous batteries :D
@@jonevansauthor good call.