Firstly as a Swansea University alumnus I would like to thank Aberdeen for sharing this fascinating talk with a wider audience via youtube. Here in Wales the referendum result was to leave the EU with many traditionally Labour Party supporting areas voting strongly for Brexit, anecdotally I feel that support has declined significantly and may continue to do so if the resulting economic problems are not resolved quickly. In Wales many people are now becoming curious about independence and are watching events in Scotland closely, even our Labour First Minister has been quoted as saying that if support for an independent Scotland continues to grow then Wales may have to consider it's status. I think that it is remarkable that a Brexit based on the idea of regaining the sovereignty of the British State may undermine the very thing it hopes to restore.
I would be very careful seeing the break up of the UK NI will not find agreement to leave the UK, it cannot be forced on the Unionists or more pertinent the Loyalists Any move in the direction of Irish unity would definitely lead to violence, and the worsening relationship between the eu and UK would further complicate matters as the UK would be hostile to this, and the eu would be wary of becoming embroiled in the conundrum that is NI as the eu would be on the side of Ireland which by default would mean on the side of NI Nationalists and be seen by Unionists/Loyalists as the enemy. Scotland will not get a referendum for years if at all, but in the meantime as I stated worsening relations between the eu and UK would polarise opinion, the same would happen in Wales I believe the break up of the UK was used as a threat to leave voters but it failed and you can be sure nothing can happen without UK agreement
@@maurx6179 Sadly the break up the UK following Brexit was not an empty threat made up by some PR people working for the Remain campaign but a genuine concern. The Good Friday settlement in Northern Ireland was an excellent piece of diplomacy and I am saddened to hear that it is now under stress, even John Major who was an architect of the agreement expressed concern about its sustainability should the UK leave the EU. I don't presume to predict the future but as a concerned observer I worry that the law of unintended consequences may be about to overwhelm us. I have little idea what is going on within the corridors of The Berlaymont, The White House or even Westminster but I worry when other people seem to speculate with such certainty. In the army there was a saying "the first casualty on contact with the enemy is the plan".
@@welshskies well put, and " In the army there was a saying "the first casualty on contact with the enemy is the plan"."...I am also partial to 'ADAPT TO OVERCOME'
I now think that all areas of the uk that are not Tory want to leave the uk, even london. They are all fed up of a conservative government forcing through things that they find abhorrent.
@@welshskies the Good Friday Agreement achieved peace and agreement on the island of Ireland, however the people of the UK did not agree to remain in the eu forever. There should have been a solution suitable to all sides in the event of Brexit, that is not the fault of the people, it is the fault of John Major and his mates
Also, right wing press ( D.Express 2021) still claiming there will be a brexit bonus soon, equal to 40 new NHS General Hospitals. Yet govt say they cannot afford to pay medical staff more than 1%. Lies!
Yes, it is curious that I do not read one word of all these problems and complaints from Brexit in the big newspapers. The owners must be Brexiteers all.
The big issue that I have not heard about here is smuggling. Everybody talks about the problems of Brexit with only the good actors in mind, those who will throw away the sandwich that they do not know if it is legal in both countries, and who will not try to hide money in another country to launder it or to evade taxes. The borders between countries are not there to hassle common people about undotted i's and uncrossed t's, they are there to protect both countries against bad actors and criminals who will cross the border with contaminated soil, sick animals, illegal aliens or even kidnapped people, drug money, and so much more. Or they will smuggle items that are not dangerous individually, but that smuggled in huge amounts will damage the economy of the country. Every decision taken by Johnson, if looked at superficially, is not disastrous if everybody is a good actor. But every single thing that this government has done is totally disastrous or even tragic in the real world, where people will take advantage of this government's incompetence.
The decision of Johnson's government to disapply customs checks on shipments being brought into the UK (contrary to checks published by HMRC) is an open door to smugglers, inviting them to bring in contraband of as wide a variety as it is possible to imagine. This contradicts the claim made in 2016 that voting to leave the EU was essential to "take back control" so fundamentally that the UK now has much less security of its borders in 2021.
Well,.. as the effect of free trade ports has always been creating zones of criminality and corruption in any created in the past and the UK government wanting to lard the whole island with those, it stands to reason that the actual drive here is to turn the whole UK to a pirate cove. The only benefit of Brexit being to stay out of the EU anti corruption rules ,the increase of trade obstruction with the largest market to the UK and the destruction of it's industries because of insane tax laws. The whole idea of there being any economic benefit to leaving has always been easy to refute and has been for years, but gosh, only now you find out. Now you are to protest without causing the slightest stir, hmm,.. wonder what page in Yellow Hammer you could refer to for that. So far less than the 50k customs agents have been recruited so the UK has just opened its borders for those officially empty trucks to fill up with the jungle people from Calais. So far for taking back control I guess. Oh and your Ghana deal seems to imply the UK will follow EU rules for the benefit of Ghana. And thatś what you gave up the privileged position of the UK in the EU for? Great strategic thinking for sure. Brexit always was an insane proposition from an economic point of view, but the shit show the Tories managed to make of it is beyond the pale. Good luck to you all and I will be interested in buying your new flint knives in some years.
@@chubbymoth5810 One correction: ports, in general, are a nest of corruption, but real free-trade ports are not. The ports at Calais and Dover were not filled with corruption, at least as far as Anglo-French trade was concerned, because there was nothing to check, except for the actual departure point of the boats. It will now become a cave of smugglers because billions of Euros will be easy to make by bribing agents to let contraband pass, by paying people to let a lorry pass in a day instead of having to wait for a week, by accepting money to let the chlorinated chicken and sick live animals, and uninspected food cross the border (just to mention a few corruption generators). When both sides were part of the same economic block, both countries were helping each other and protecting each other from the rest of the countries in the world. Now, France has to see the UK as another one of the more than 200 "third countries".
The hard Brexiteer do not care about the economy and the referendum was for Brexit, therefore the economy is the price. It is not possible to have sovereignty, immigration control and no economic impact. This will be a never ending saga.
@michael quirk How? Trade is down badly!! How is that making us 'leaps and bounds ahead' ? And of what, by what metric? Its not the EU, that institution is far more robust than we are as now isolated Third country UK.
@michael quirk 'New Power House'? Oh! Where has this 'New Power' come from? We are a post Empirical power (the Nazi would have loved what we had!) and become the Sick Man of Europe in the 1960-70's as we lost our Empirical influence and were failing. Still instead of creating a new Empire (impossible) we joined the European Project and 'went big' again. Now we are rejecting that way that has given Europe peace and prosperity since 1945 and are 'going small' again!! With no clear future strategy!! So tell me who are these 'experts' who have forecast that the UK is 'miles ahead of any country in the EU' (which is about as un-Nazi as you can get being interested in multiculturalism, free trade and consensus not authoritarianism, with a PR Parliament and an elected fixed term Commission!). And anyway it is the EU as a bloc we will now have to compete with. You are again talking tribal ignorant claptrap!!
Excellent analysis. It is indeed true that Brexit has strengthened EU-cohesion. Leaving the EU is not a matter anymore. In 2016 a lot of Brexiteers were hoping for and foreseeing a break-up of the EU. If/when this happens, It won't be due to leave-movements anymore. It would have to do with inner problems. This also weakens the UK-position. They will have to come to terms with the big and powerful neighbour in the long run. Election results will bring about these changes.
The funny thing is that sovereignty and immigration were the reasons to leave and most likely they will be also the reasons Brexit will economically fall short because of it.
@@gingerbaker4390 No open borders anymore. Imagine if Britain had resisted the Romans, the vikings and William the Conqueror.... Would we have had more or less culture than now?
@@privats294 Do you leave the door to your house open when you go out. ? Open borders are not natural and asking for trouble.. Civilised societies have borders. There's nothing wrong with showing a passport at a national border.
@@gingerbaker4390 You had that in the eu before Brexit. We always had to show passports entering and leaving UK. Nothing gained then. With your point in mind, What about Scottish, NI and Welsh passports then? Would you be happy for them to have borders with England if they view out and insist on showing passports? And what about A London Passport as it voted overwhelmingly to leave? Happy for an M25 border? Wouldn't want to leave front doors open.
Very nice an deep analyse of Brexit motives, and aims, but those were never the intentions of the Brexit leaders. If they really wanted sovereignty, they made an enormous mess out of it. If they really wanted to control immigration, why only from the EU and not from the rest of the world? If they really wanted to stimulate the economy, why devastating the financial sector? You can analyse all kind of things, but if they were clear lies, and only made up to get support, what is the value of your study?
Got to fight the oppressors regardless of outcome people. You can't let the EU bully us and treat us like they do because we're financially better off. Look how the EU have been going off regarding this vaccine rollout, they've certainly showed their true colours.
@@simonrodgers2375 The EU paid a quarter of the price per dosis of the vaccine in comparison with the UK. And surely is pissed, that they don't get the same conditions than the UK for it. In addition the UK is in a bad financial situation at least since May of last year. Hasn't stopped spending money and has to pay much more interest than nearly all EU-countries for more debts. And the earnings from taxes seem to have plummeted in addition. The EU hasn't pressed the UK to do anything. They've left the Union in February 2020 and can decide for themselves.
59:10 That is *nonsense*! What Brexitiers claim to be punitive is from the EU point of view nothing but competition. Once you are out, you are a *competitor*! You wanted to be independent, meant you wanted to compete, right? If you do not want to compete, than keep crying how unfair the world is, but that will not change the world.
The Labour Party Must Now Support Scotland Going Back into The EU, If Not then They will Never get back into in the UK or England it would Stop This Tory Party and Cause a General Elation.
it is a matter of time until Scotland becomes independent, as long support for independence grows, it is inevitable, it is up to the Scottish people in the end Let's say 60%+ vote for independence, no way it won't happen - a matter of time
Shocking to see that non tangible issues ( sovereignty) or false reasons ( EU bureaucracy ) and existing but totally drawn out of context issues ( immigration) were the main reasons to choose for jumping of a cliff without a plan. I truly can’t get my head round that. It is the opposite of a logical sensible fact based decision because there is no reward for it. Baffling. It is almost inhuman.
Yes, Jeremy Corbin unwittingly was the difference between leave and remain. His own parochial stand point wouldn't allow him to campaign enthusiastically. He let down the Labour Party. It is those supporters who will suffer the most as a result.
@@martinhughes8500 I do believe that Jeremy is a good man, quite an unusual character for a politician. Had he been Labour leader at the time of G.W. Bush there would have been no British Army deployment in Iraq. (He wasn’t sadly.) I believe that a lot of people lost their trust in Westminster after that. I believe it even contributed to the eventual Brexit vote. However, Corbyn’s lack of clarity was the decisive blow. I’m (absolutely) NOT comparing the two events. Unlike Iraq, nobody died because of Brexit. New deals can be made with the E.U. which will greatly lessen the harm. Britain will recover all “lost ground,” ... it was just so bloody unnecessary.
@@patrickgleason2066 We will not!! We are now too small and too irrelevant in a world that is dividing itself into trade blocs, they are China, Pacific Rim, USA and the EU, everyone wants to align with one of those apart from rouge states that are causing trouble, they being principally N.Korea, Iran, Russia. We, like Ghana, or South Africa, are small/medium economies that are simply less important as these blocs manoeuvre for dominance. We are deluding ourselves if we think we can compete with the EU and 'make up the ground'.
Perhaps the "problem" is that in the UK ,political parties don't have policies? No ALP government or opposition would allow its members to go against party policy in Australia.And yet in Britain "euro-sceptics" were permitted in both parties without being thrown out as fuckwits---whose policies were dangerous.You have paid the price for lazy idiocy
@@Paul_C Perhaps it's "boarder" in Scotland? Them Scotch do talk funny like mun, not like us tidy people in Wales. My best butty did medicine at Aberdeen before coming by yer, where to you from but?
Good analysis, except that there is nothing to be negotiated. The deal is what it is. There is only things to be discussed regarding the NI Protocol. The EU has been very clear on this.
@R G I don't think eu citizens understand the strength of feeling against the eu, in the UK, but I personally don't care what the eu do in the future, they have threatened to do so much ie legal action, make an example of the UK, made things bad for the people of Northern Ireland (it is concerning how little they understand about Northern Ireland) they are encouraging eu citizens to think Ireland
Could unify, it won't because Unionists and Loyalists would boycott any vote that would lead to a united Ireland and believe me, no decision can be made without their agreement and it would not be forthcoming, in the next few months unless the eu change their stance we will see armed Loyalist paramilitaries on the streets of Northern Ireland, The eu know there will not be a united Ireland, they also know Scotland will not leave the UK, but they encourage eu citizens to goad the UK with all this nonsense You will not believe me but we shall see
@R G The eu are making it difficult for Northern Ireland, it will involve the eu because Ireland is part of the eu, as I say, this is a serious issue, the eu have upset the wrong people who don't like threats
@@maurx6179 couldn't care less about NI in itself, what matters is Ireland, if for Ireland NI matters, then NI matters to me ;) together we are stronger
I remember Gove and Rees Mogg both saying during the referendum campaign that we would stay within the customs union. It was after the vote that the conservative party reneged on that promise.
as minimum wage within the uk is the same unlike european union...hence business were leaving uk and setting up in eastern europe....how can that be fair trade...
@@jpgpearson That an apples to bananas comparison low skilled jobs have been flooding to Asia for decades now and will continue to....the point here is what England says goes like it or lump it,perfectly illustrated by the Brexit disaster.
@@johntheball no they won’t as low skilled jobs are going extinct normally when Labour gets expensive it moves to a cheaper country, not any more robots are here so Africa will not be getting the cheap Labour it’ll be staying in China. But we are talking eu here with no tariffs go job we left
@@jpgpearson im not talking about trade,tariffs or markets you are....all im saying is 50 million odd English people versus 10 million odd for the other 'partners' in the Union is not fair balanced and never can be. Bexit has made this painfully clear to the Scots.
@@privats294 Typical arrogance I have come to expect from people that fail to see the other side of an argument. If you had not guessed, I voted leave in 2016. I'd have a wager that your qualification is not as good as mine.
@@simonoldroyd5037 anyone who can't understand trade figures won't understand Brexit. You don't understand the definition of arrogant either so you'll have to rely on your 'other side of the argument'.ie Someone attempting to win an argument via a 'qualification' =someone with an ego =an arrogant person.
@@privats294 May I quote you? I used to think Britain was full of intelligent people but Brexit sad an IQ test, which 17.4 million failed. Now THAT is arrogance! I was simply defending my intelligence.
@@simonoldroyd5037 Arrogance or Accuracy? Brexit now has no justification with the economic damage manifesting in the UK. The only justification you could have was immigration, as any hypothetical economic benefits are well and truly out the window. See recent hmrc and ONS figures. Your Brexit will lead to widespread poverty and unemployment which will lead to social unrest: worse than any immigration (your other side of the argument no doubt) you were afraid of. My focus as a Brexiteer therefore, would be more on what is accurate than what may or may not be arrogance.
Ah well, why not create another Union? Great Ireland as a federal state? Combination of Scotland, Wales and Ireland? Along the same lines of the federal Republic of Germany.
Now that is a novel notion! The Celtic nations I believe seem to have a different mindset from England. The difference became very apparent with the Scottish response to the Brexit.
Looks like the people who brought Brexit forward had not studied economics. ;-) I don't understand why the UK has a problem to adapt to the rest of Europe and other countries not. e.g. different electrical socket, driving car on the other side, ... It bring so many benefits. for e.g. cars instead of selling used cars only within UK and some few countries far away they could sell their used car to Europe if the steering wheel would be on the other side like all other European countries. Having the same currency. You benefit from not having to pay the exchange tax of about 3% . Example of European standard. Tell me what is worse e.g cosmectics: - The EU law bans 1,328 chemicals from cosmetics that are known or suspected to cause cancer, genetic mutation, reproductive harm or birth defects. - U.S. FDA has only banned or restricted 11 chemicals from cosmetics.
in the intro Michael Keating is presented as an important advisor to Westminster and the UK gouvernment. I wonder what his advises were. Not very helpfull from a remainer point of view.....
British is an artificial construct which should unite Scots, English, Northern Irish and people from Wales. It never really worked as an identifier. Most people in England who voted for Brexit consider themselves to be only English.
Fact one when looking at the map where remoaners and the people who voted to leave he said Northern Ireland wanted to remain yet it shows majority wanted to leave Second fact there’s not a level playing field because cost of labour in many of the poorest countries in the Eu is lower Third fact we import more than we export so any tariffs put on the uk will result on the same with the imports from the Eu Fourth fact uk standards are higher than Eu and the rules have over the years have been tweaked to support countries like France Germany Spain and Italy reducing what we can export And the world can see from the silly little games that the Eu have been playing like trying to discredit Astra Zeneca because they couldn’t bully them into giving Eu the vaccines that were destined for the uk but now begging for them 🤔 the Eu has no foresight hence why uk have vaccinated many more of their citizens Southern Ireland will have more restrictions put on them to try and replace what the uk have taken ie fish quotas the uk was the second largest contributor to the Eu honeypot
Excellent answer to the question about Scottish independence: I had already assumed that most of Scotland's trade is with the rest of the UK, not with the EU. The same is almost certainly true of cross-border family connections too. Both these things make Scottish independence much more of a "tearing asunder" of both the Scottish economy and its social fabric. As tends to be true of these things, the disruption is always proportionately worse for the smaller party in a split. And since Scotland is an even smaller proportion of the UK economy and population than the corresponding proportions for the UK and pre-Brexit EU, the pain that can be expected among Scots will be greater than that from Brexit and simply cannot be assumed to be easily offset by integrating (NOT "reintegrating") with the EU. It's anybody's guess how the Scots would vote in an Indyref2, but let nobody be fooled by yet another round of "rosy scenario" spin from splittist "true believers" targeting low-information voters...
When the Scots are leaving England, as N.Ireland and Wales will most likely do too, they are whitout doubt joining Europe s commom market, an oncomplicated procedure. The economic effect of joining a huge market on their doorstep will have a tremendous positive effect. Little England insulated by Scotland, Wales, united Ireland, Frace, Belgium, The Neterlands, all countries that know what peache and solidarity means.
Settling up an investment that would benefit you is something one would be aiming towards. I wasn’t really a fan of online business because I have actually been doubting this all my life because I have been taken before by several scammers. But after my encounter with Luiz my prospective of online trade changes and I I’m now a millionaire from bitcoin.
If this guy is supposed to be an expert then I don't understand why his analysis is so superficial. He doesn't say anything you wouldn't find in the Guardian comments section.
where are we now....well we at the position where european union trying to do everything it can to get us to change our mind....localise production...become incelur give jobs to each other...let the bosses earn less...make them sell their second homes, reduce the cost of the home....need to make the banks take the losses so we can have smaller mortgages...and as the rich become poorer the poorer become richer as it all proportionate.
@@alexwars8327 no to stop movement, you can't have socialism under a monetary system...you need dictatorship...as there is only one correct way of thinking...caring sharing which takes organisation...which means you have to tell people what to do.. iff people know its going to be there tomorrow they will take what they need, get rid of competition as more gets done working together...sharing ideas open source information....less choice but you will have the best....3 days a week work...2people for every job...put your name down for activities...we will spend our time reducing waiting lists.... democracy is a sociopathic reaction to psychopaths. money was created when we couldn't communicate over large distances well, and no mass production... first game was to control the money second game is controlling people....so your being controlled by people who live on their fears and insecurities this never ends well.
ireland should be forced to leave eu as its contrary to the northern ireland protocal and they are supposed to be a neutral country...with the eu army coming undermines that.
Experts will now have to deal with this mess in the present. The same experts that were derided for stating the consequences of brexit. How does a 130 billion pound hole in our economy sound? You seem to be an expert, so tell me what we do to make up such a loss which will manifest into our society very soon?
Well, they voted for Brexit. Hard Brexit wasn't a thing back then and even most hardcore Brexiteers expected UK to stay in the Single Market. And as it turns out at the moment, not being in the Single Market was indeed a bad outcome!
No they didn't!!!! This is an obvious lie. Nigel Farage is ON VIDEO saying we could be like Norway. That means we would have been effectively members of the single market. This is not just STUPID, it's dishonest. We never lost our sovereignty. Nobody even MENTIONED 'no deal Brexit' until AFTER the referendum (in Theresa May's Mansion House speech) . We ALWAYS had control of our borders. We weren't in Schengen. Not a sovereign nation? Then how is it we have different speed limits, different laws on drugs, a very different criminal justice system,a queen, a house of Lords, our own armed services, which we have deployed in recent history in ways that most European states violently disagreed with? (oh Christ, if only we'd followed their example!) We agreed as EU members to adhere to high standards on human rights, food quality, the environment, human rights, conditions of work, and health and safety. We always took part in framing these laws. So what do you want to do with you sovereignty? - Have worse working conditions? More pollution? Worse human rights? Lower food standards?
listen once more what this smart guy said: imostly uneducated people voted for brexit.. these guys winning to me looks like in britain you have more stupid people than smart ones
Firstly as a Swansea University alumnus I would like to thank Aberdeen for sharing this fascinating talk with a wider audience via youtube. Here in Wales the referendum result was to leave the EU with many traditionally Labour Party supporting areas voting strongly for Brexit, anecdotally I feel that support has declined significantly and may continue to do so if the resulting economic problems are not resolved quickly. In Wales many people are now becoming curious about independence and are watching events in Scotland closely, even our Labour First Minister has been quoted as saying that if support for an independent Scotland continues to grow then Wales may have to consider it's status. I think that it is remarkable that a Brexit based on the idea of regaining the sovereignty of the British State may undermine the very thing it hopes to restore.
I would be very careful seeing the break up of the UK
NI will not find agreement to leave the UK, it cannot be forced on the Unionists or more pertinent the Loyalists
Any move in the direction of Irish unity would definitely lead to violence, and the worsening relationship between the eu and UK would further complicate matters as the UK would be hostile to this, and the eu would be wary of becoming embroiled in the conundrum that is NI as the eu would be on the side of Ireland which by default would mean on the side of NI Nationalists and be seen by Unionists/Loyalists as the enemy.
Scotland will not get a referendum for years if at all, but in the meantime as I stated worsening relations between the eu and UK would polarise opinion, the same would happen in Wales
I believe the break up of the UK was used as a threat to leave voters but it failed and you can be sure nothing can happen without UK agreement
@@maurx6179 Sadly the break up the UK following Brexit was not an empty threat made up by some PR people working for the Remain campaign but a genuine concern. The Good Friday settlement in Northern Ireland was an excellent piece of diplomacy and I am saddened to hear that it is now under stress, even John Major who was an architect of the agreement expressed concern about its sustainability should the UK leave the EU. I don't presume to predict the future but as a concerned observer I worry that the law of unintended consequences may be about to overwhelm us. I have little idea what is going on within the corridors of The Berlaymont, The White House or even Westminster but I worry when other people seem to speculate with such certainty. In the army there was a saying "the first casualty on contact with the enemy is the plan".
@@welshskies well put, and " In the army there was a saying "the first casualty on contact with the enemy is the plan"."...I am also partial to 'ADAPT TO OVERCOME'
I now think that all areas of the uk that are not Tory want to leave the uk, even london. They are all fed up of a conservative government forcing through things that they find abhorrent.
@@welshskies the Good Friday Agreement achieved peace and agreement on the island of Ireland, however the people of the UK did not agree to remain in the eu forever.
There should have been a solution suitable to all sides in the event of Brexit, that is not the fault of the people, it is the fault of John Major and his mates
The primary thing to be still worked out is: What are the precise negotiating postions that Britain is taking and when are they actually committed?
I understand that the EU's trust in the word of the current British Government has waned, at lot.
@@welshskies to put it mildly!
@@welshskies The UK government has shown that they are law breakers and liars. So this is what the EU expects from thrm.
@@TorianTammas The rest of the World, notably USA have taken note and will deal with UK accordingly.
🏴 Indyref2 please
Where we are is screwed, but with all the negatives being obscured by most of the popular media
Also, right wing press ( D.Express 2021) still claiming there will be a brexit bonus soon, equal to 40 new NHS General Hospitals. Yet govt say they cannot afford to pay medical staff more than 1%. Lies!
Yes, it is curious that I do not read one word of all these problems and complaints from Brexit in the big newspapers. The owners must be Brexiteers all.
entire u.k media is owned by murdoch. murdoch is owned by the tories. bbc is now run by brexiteer. media in uk is completely useless propaganda now.
The big issue that I have not heard about here is smuggling. Everybody talks about the problems of Brexit with only the good actors in mind, those who will throw away the sandwich that they do not know if it is legal in both countries, and who will not try to hide money in another country to launder it or to evade taxes.
The borders between countries are not there to hassle common people about undotted i's and uncrossed t's, they are there to protect both countries against bad actors and criminals who will cross the border with contaminated soil, sick animals, illegal aliens or even kidnapped people, drug money, and so much more. Or they will smuggle items that are not dangerous individually, but that smuggled in huge amounts will damage the economy of the country. Every decision taken by Johnson, if looked at superficially, is not disastrous if everybody is a good actor. But every single thing that this government has done is totally disastrous or even tragic in the real world, where people will take advantage of this government's incompetence.
The decision of Johnson's government to disapply customs checks on shipments being brought into the UK (contrary to checks published by HMRC) is an open door to smugglers, inviting them to bring in contraband of as wide a variety as it is possible to imagine. This contradicts the claim made in 2016 that voting to leave the EU was essential to "take back control" so fundamentally that the UK now has much less security of its borders in 2021.
Well,.. as the effect of free trade ports has always been creating zones of criminality and corruption in any created in the past and the UK government wanting to lard the whole island with those, it stands to reason that the actual drive here is to turn the whole UK to a pirate cove. The only benefit of Brexit being to stay out of the EU anti corruption rules ,the increase of trade obstruction with the largest market to the UK and the destruction of it's industries because of insane tax laws. The whole idea of there being any economic benefit to leaving has always been easy to refute and has been for years, but gosh, only now you find out.
Now you are to protest without causing the slightest stir, hmm,.. wonder what page in Yellow Hammer you could refer to for that. So far less than the 50k customs agents have been recruited so the UK has just opened its borders for those officially empty trucks to fill up with the jungle people from Calais. So far for taking back control I guess. Oh and your Ghana deal seems to imply the UK will follow EU rules for the benefit of Ghana. And thatś what you gave up the privileged position of the UK in the EU for? Great strategic thinking for sure.
Brexit always was an insane proposition from an economic point of view, but the shit show the Tories managed to make of it is beyond the pale. Good luck to you all and I will be interested in buying your new flint knives in some years.
@@chubbymoth5810 One correction: ports, in general, are a nest of corruption, but real free-trade ports are not. The ports at Calais and Dover were not filled with corruption, at least as far as Anglo-French trade was concerned, because there was nothing to check, except for the actual departure point of the boats. It will now become a cave of smugglers because billions of Euros will be easy to make by bribing agents to let contraband pass, by paying people to let a lorry pass in a day instead of having to wait for a week, by accepting money to let the chlorinated chicken and sick live animals, and uninspected food cross the border (just to mention a few corruption generators).
When both sides were part of the same economic block, both countries were helping each other and protecting each other from the rest of the countries in the world. Now, France has to see the UK as another one of the more than 200 "third countries".
The hard Brexiteer do not care about the economy and the referendum was for Brexit, therefore the economy is the price. It is not possible to have sovereignty, immigration control and no economic impact. This will be a never ending saga.
@michael quirk Better than ignorant.
@michael quirk How? Trade is down badly!! How is that making us 'leaps and bounds ahead' ? And of what, by what metric? Its not the EU, that institution is far more robust than we are as now isolated Third country UK.
@michael quirk 'New Power House'? Oh! Where has this 'New Power' come from? We are a post Empirical power (the Nazi would have loved what we had!) and become the Sick Man of Europe in the 1960-70's as we lost our Empirical influence and were failing. Still instead of creating a new Empire (impossible) we joined the European Project and 'went big' again. Now we are rejecting that way that has given Europe peace and prosperity since 1945 and are 'going small' again!! With no clear future strategy!!
So tell me who are these 'experts' who have forecast that the UK is 'miles ahead of any country in the EU' (which is about as un-Nazi as you can get being interested in multiculturalism, free trade and consensus not authoritarianism, with a PR Parliament and an elected fixed term Commission!). And anyway it is the EU as a bloc we will now have to compete with. You are again talking tribal ignorant claptrap!!
@michael quirk AN ex spurt is a drip. However, in UK you can easily earn £6K a day if you have the right handshake. Suckers!
The UK still does not know where's going.
With Johnson on tbe helm, the UK goes just over the cliff and then on downhill.
UK is going into the ditch and BoJo cover up the pit!
,🏴 I think we do
give a couple examples, please, of what you can do now after brexit that you couldn't do before?
Excellent presentation! Congratulations.
My country of Oxfordshire, the city of Oxford and my village voted Remain
Excellent analysis. It is indeed true that Brexit has strengthened EU-cohesion. Leaving the EU is not a matter anymore. In 2016 a lot of Brexiteers were hoping for and foreseeing a break-up of the EU. If/when this happens, It won't be due to leave-movements anymore. It would have to do with inner problems. This also weakens the UK-position. They will have to come to terms with the big and powerful neighbour in the long run. Election results will bring about these changes.
The funny thing is that sovereignty and immigration were the reasons to leave and most likely they will be also the reasons Brexit will economically fall short because of it.
The UK is a welfare state. Open borders and mass immigration from Europe will destroy the country the infrastructure and culture.
@@gingerbaker4390 No open borders anymore.
Imagine if Britain had resisted the Romans, the vikings and William the Conqueror.... Would we have had more or less culture than now?
@@privats294 Do you leave the door to your house open when you go out. ? Open borders are not natural and asking for trouble.. Civilised societies have borders. There's nothing wrong with showing a passport at a national border.
@@gingerbaker4390 You had that in the eu before Brexit. We always had to show passports entering and leaving UK. Nothing gained then.
With your point in mind, What about Scottish, NI and Welsh passports then? Would you be happy for them to have borders with England if they view out and insist on showing passports?
And what about A London Passport as it voted overwhelmingly to leave?
Happy for an M25 border? Wouldn't want to leave front doors open.
You cannot compare à house to a country, a door to a border.
You do not own the country, And You are not the exclusive holder of the border keys.
Very nice an deep analyse of Brexit motives, and aims, but those were never the intentions of the Brexit leaders.
If they really wanted sovereignty, they made an enormous mess out of it.
If they really wanted to control immigration, why only from the EU and not from the rest of the world?
If they really wanted to stimulate the economy, why devastating the financial sector?
You can analyse all kind of things, but if they were clear lies, and only made up to get support, what is the value of your study?
Enjoy all the sovereignty in your soon to be poor country. You’ll have as much say in the world as a Caribbean island
If that what it takes, that's what it takes.
Precisely....madness
Will be more like Norway probably.
Got to fight the oppressors regardless of outcome people. You can't let the EU bully us and treat us like they do because we're financially better off.
Look how the EU have been going off regarding this vaccine rollout, they've certainly showed their true colours.
@@simonrodgers2375
The EU paid a quarter of the price per dosis of the vaccine in comparison with the UK.
And surely is pissed, that they don't get the same conditions than the UK for it.
In addition the UK is in a bad financial situation at least since May of last year.
Hasn't stopped spending money and has to pay much more interest than nearly all EU-countries for more debts.
And the earnings from taxes seem to have plummeted in addition.
The EU hasn't pressed the UK to do anything.
They've left the Union in February 2020 and can decide for themselves.
59:10 That is *nonsense*! What Brexitiers claim to be punitive is from the EU point of view nothing but competition. Once you are out, you are a *competitor*! You wanted to be independent, meant you wanted to compete, right? If you do not want to compete, than keep crying how unfair the world is, but that will not change the world.
exactly
The Labour Party Must Now Support Scotland Going Back into The EU, If Not then They will Never get back into in the UK or England it would Stop This Tory Party and Cause a General Elation.
A General Elation would we nice, but we don't need another General Election.
@@stephenharris2900 Who's We ?
it is a matter of time until Scotland becomes independent, as long support for independence grows, it is inevitable, it is up to the Scottish people in the end
Let's say 60%+ vote for independence, no way it won't happen - a matter of time
Shocking to see that non tangible issues ( sovereignty) or false reasons ( EU bureaucracy ) and existing but totally drawn out of context issues ( immigration) were the main reasons to choose for jumping of a cliff without a plan.
I truly can’t get my head round that. It is the opposite of a logical sensible fact based decision because there is no reward for it.
Baffling. It is almost inhuman.
Ah well, the fact the British need to employ 50.000 civil servants more, to do the same thing as it takes 35.000 for 27 countries. Well done UK.
You obviously get your information from the media or pro eu sources, it would explain your confusion
@@maurx6179 o. Well. I live in the EU and watched the video. Hence I know.
@@Paul_C There were 28 countries, and the figure was fewer than 33,000.
“The Labour Party was all over the place,” the main reason that Brexit won a fairly close vote. (Jeremy Corbyn)
Yes, Jeremy Corbin unwittingly was the difference between leave and remain. His own parochial stand point wouldn't allow him to campaign enthusiastically. He let down the Labour Party. It is those supporters who will suffer the most as a result.
@@martinhughes8500 I do believe that Jeremy is a good man, quite an unusual character for a politician. Had he been Labour leader at the time of G.W. Bush there would have been no British Army deployment in Iraq. (He wasn’t sadly.) I believe that a lot of people lost their trust in Westminster after that. I believe it even contributed to the eventual Brexit vote. However, Corbyn’s lack of clarity was the decisive blow.
I’m (absolutely) NOT comparing the two events. Unlike Iraq, nobody died because of Brexit. New deals can be made with the E.U. which will greatly lessen the harm. Britain will recover all “lost ground,” ... it was just so bloody unnecessary.
@@patrickgleason2066 We will not!! We are now too small and too irrelevant in a world that is dividing itself into trade blocs, they are China, Pacific Rim, USA and the EU, everyone wants to align with one of those apart from rouge states that are causing trouble, they being principally N.Korea, Iran, Russia. We, like Ghana, or South Africa, are small/medium economies that are simply less important as these blocs manoeuvre for dominance. We are deluding ourselves if we think we can compete with the EU and 'make up the ground'.
Perhaps the "problem" is that in the UK ,political parties don't have policies? No ALP government or opposition would allow its members to go against party policy in Australia.And yet in Britain "euro-sceptics" were permitted in both parties without being thrown out as fuckwits---whose policies were dangerous.You have paid the price for lazy idiocy
@@bryangeake5826 you are specially deluded in so far as you have a lot to buy but nothing to sell
It's beginning to look a lot like Scexit
Thank you very informative. The Romans sorted the English Scotland boarder problem
PRICELESS ;-)
England and Scotland did not exist then.
For crying out loud: A BORDER not a boarder... Learn the difference.
@@Paul_C Perhaps it's "boarder" in Scotland? Them Scotch do talk funny like mun, not like us tidy people in Wales. My best butty did medicine at Aberdeen before coming by yer, where to you from but?
@@Paul_C Perhaps the Romans disliked lodgers.
Prof. Trevor Salmon is also well worth a read.
Good analysis, except that there is nothing to be negotiated. The deal is what it is. There is only things to be discussed regarding the NI Protocol. The EU has been very clear on this.
You talk as if what the eu says, goes
@R G I don't think eu citizens understand the strength of feeling against the eu, in the UK, but I personally don't care what the eu do in the future, they have threatened to do so much ie legal action, make an example of the UK, made things bad for the people of Northern Ireland (it is concerning how little they understand about Northern Ireland) they are encouraging eu citizens to think Ireland
Could unify, it won't because Unionists and Loyalists would boycott any vote that would lead to a united Ireland and believe me, no decision can be made without their agreement and it would not be forthcoming, in the next few months unless the eu change their stance we will see armed Loyalist paramilitaries on the streets of Northern Ireland,
The eu know there will not be a united Ireland, they also know Scotland will not leave the UK, but they encourage eu citizens to goad the UK with all this nonsense
You will not believe me but we shall see
@R G The eu are making it difficult for Northern Ireland, it will involve the eu because Ireland is part of the eu, as I say, this is a serious issue, the eu have upset the wrong people who don't like threats
@@maurx6179 couldn't care less about NI in itself, what matters is Ireland, if for Ireland NI matters, then NI matters to me ;)
together we are stronger
I remember Gove and Rees Mogg both saying during the referendum campaign that we would stay within the customs union. It was after the vote that the conservative party reneged on that promise.
In the case of Gove it depends on which speech you quote him on. But he used both would and should on separate occasions.
tories know the english electorate. tell them any old bollocks that simply cant be true and the english believe it every time. saor alba
companies either pay higher wages and take less profit or they close.
How can the British union be fair or balanced when England has 5 times the population or the 3 members combind.
as minimum wage within the uk is the same unlike european union...hence business were leaving uk and setting up in eastern europe....how can that be fair trade...
@@jpgpearson
That an apples to bananas comparison low skilled jobs have been flooding to Asia for decades now and will continue to....the point here is what England says goes like it or lump it,perfectly illustrated by the Brexit disaster.
@@johntheball no they won’t as low skilled jobs are going extinct normally when Labour gets expensive it moves to a cheaper country, not any more robots are here so Africa will not be getting the cheap Labour it’ll be staying in China. But we are talking eu here with no tariffs go job we left
@@jpgpearson im not talking about trade,tariffs or markets you are....all im saying is 50 million odd English people versus 10 million odd for the other 'partners' in the Union is not fair balanced and never can be. Bexit has made this painfully clear to the Scots.
@@johntheball england merged with scotland not scotland merged with england...its scottish blood in the king that made the uk
Great insight and very well outlined.
I am enjoying my hefty Brexit Dividend generously distributed to U.K. people by the government.
The picture is quite right. The British are moving to the right
I meant the English
No I’m not moving to the right, millions of us are NOT moving to the right and deeply saddened by everything going on
How is it that highly educated professors have poorer video and sound quality than some small youtubers with a smartphone? ;-)
Because they don't spend all their time watching crap on youtube?
You're right....just a tiny thought
Let the Engilsh go it alone and let the rest of us re-join the EU
When will we wake up to this disaster? Will it take a drop of 4.5% in GDP for ordinary people to wake up?
Exactly. I used to think Britain was full of intelligent people but Brexit sad an IQ test, which 17.4 million failed.
@@privats294 Typical arrogance I have come to expect from people that fail to see the other side of an argument. If you had not guessed, I voted leave in 2016. I'd have a wager that your qualification is not as good as mine.
@@simonoldroyd5037 anyone who can't understand trade figures won't understand Brexit. You don't understand the definition of arrogant either so you'll have to rely on your 'other side of the argument'.ie Someone attempting to win an argument via a 'qualification' =someone with an ego =an arrogant person.
@@privats294 May I quote you?
I used to think Britain was full of intelligent people but Brexit sad an IQ test, which 17.4 million failed.
Now THAT is arrogance!
I was simply defending my intelligence.
@@simonoldroyd5037 Arrogance or Accuracy? Brexit now has no justification with the economic damage manifesting in the UK.
The only justification you could have was immigration, as any hypothetical economic benefits are well and truly out the window. See recent hmrc and ONS figures.
Your Brexit will lead to widespread poverty and unemployment which will lead to social unrest: worse than any immigration (your other side of the argument no doubt) you were afraid of.
My focus as a Brexiteer therefore, would be more on what is accurate than what may or may not be arrogance.
Does it really need a lecture to give the simple answer, "Britain is up shit creek without a paddle"?
its not about sovereignty. its about the sovereign, their continuing apparatus of power and their tax status. Just sayin.
Ah well, why not create another Union? Great Ireland as a federal state? Combination of Scotland, Wales and Ireland? Along the same lines of the federal Republic of Germany.
Now that is a novel notion! The Celtic nations I believe seem to have a different mindset from England. The difference became very apparent with the Scottish response to the Brexit.
It is sorted out, the UK is no longer part of the EU.
Looks like the people who brought Brexit forward had not studied economics. ;-) I don't understand why the UK has a problem to adapt to the rest of Europe and other countries not. e.g. different electrical socket, driving car on the other side, ... It bring so many benefits. for e.g. cars instead of selling used cars only within UK and some few countries far away they could sell their used car to Europe if the steering wheel would be on the other side like all other European countries. Having the same currency. You benefit from not having to pay the exchange tax of about 3% .
Example of European standard. Tell me what is worse e.g cosmectics:
- The EU law bans 1,328 chemicals from cosmetics that are known or suspected to cause cancer, genetic mutation, reproductive harm or birth defects.
- U.S. FDA has only banned or restricted 11 chemicals from cosmetics.
in the intro Michael Keating is presented as an important advisor to Westminster and the UK gouvernment. I wonder what his advises were. Not very helpfull from a remainer point of view.....
10:48 was that a meow? Was someone trying to put the wind up the proff?
Kitty cat stating her opinion.
What is the difference between being English and being British?
Quite a lot.
England is just one area of Britain, which also includes Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
British is an artificial construct which should unite Scots, English, Northern Irish and people from Wales. It never really worked as an identifier. Most people in England who voted for Brexit consider themselves to be only English.
a nice way of saying you are englands subject is you are british
@@Thoradim Uh? Scottish people are British. Welsh people are British. People in NI are British.
What might happen: The U.K: or U.K.S.N.E ~ United Kingdom of Scotland and Northern England
But my district, Cherwell, which is mainly the town of Banbury was on the fence with 0.1% to Leave
So far, in the last three millennia, only the old Roman emperor Hadrian found a working solution to the Scottish problem.
Irish problem, Scottish problem,.. what's next? A Welsh problem?
I'm starting to think that the UK only ever had an English problem.
@sch treg maybe UK is the problem 😅
So tragic...the sound quality is so bad that listening is too painful...I have had to shut it off.
Fact one when looking at the map where remoaners and the people who voted to leave he said Northern Ireland wanted to remain yet it shows majority wanted to leave
Second fact there’s not a level playing field because cost of labour in many of the poorest countries in the Eu is lower
Third fact we import more than we export so any tariffs put on the uk will result on the same with the imports from the Eu
Fourth fact uk standards are higher than Eu and the rules have over the years have been tweaked to support countries like France Germany Spain and Italy reducing what we can export
And the world can see from the silly little games that the Eu have been playing like trying to discredit Astra Zeneca because they couldn’t bully them into giving Eu the vaccines that were destined for the uk but now begging for them 🤔 the Eu has no foresight hence why uk have vaccinated many more of their citizens
Southern Ireland will have more restrictions put on them to try and replace what the uk have taken ie fish quotas the uk was the second largest contributor to the Eu honeypot
as we want higher wages and lower rent/house prices we dont want unlimited workers willing to work for minimum wage...pushing up the rent...
You believe that minimum wage workers push up your rent? Are you daft?
@@mementomori7825 yes why don’t you believe shortage of rental properties push prices up
@@mementomori7825 really daft 🙄
Excellent answer to the question about Scottish independence: I had already assumed that most of Scotland's trade is with the rest of the UK, not with the EU. The same is almost certainly true of cross-border family connections too.
Both these things make Scottish independence much more of a "tearing asunder" of both the Scottish economy and its social fabric.
As tends to be true of these things, the disruption is always proportionately worse for the smaller party in a split. And since Scotland is an even smaller proportion of the UK economy and population than the corresponding proportions for the UK and pre-Brexit EU, the pain that can be expected among Scots will be greater than that from Brexit and simply cannot be assumed to be easily offset by integrating (NOT "reintegrating") with the EU.
It's anybody's guess how the Scots would vote in an Indyref2, but let nobody be fooled by yet another round of "rosy scenario" spin from splittist "true believers" targeting low-information voters...
When the Scots are leaving England, as N.Ireland and Wales will most likely do too, they are whitout doubt joining Europe s commom market, an oncomplicated procedure. The economic effect of joining a huge market on their doorstep will have a tremendous positive effect. Little England insulated by Scotland, Wales, united Ireland, Frace, Belgium, The Neterlands, all countries that know what peache and solidarity means.
Settling up an investment that would benefit you is something one would be aiming towards. I wasn’t really a fan of online business because I have actually been doubting this all my life because I have been taken before by several scammers. But after my encounter with Luiz my prospective of online trade changes and I I’m now a millionaire from bitcoin.
Welcome to the Brexit Britain, begging EU workers for help 😄🙈😎🙈😄.
another professorship in stating the obvious.
Brexiteers need the obvious to be stated on a daily basis as they forget stuff overnight.
@@privats294 Overnight? What a compliment you are giving them.
If this guy is supposed to be an expert then I don't understand why his analysis is so superficial. He doesn't say anything you wouldn't find in the Guardian comments section.
59:45 "EU is in deep crisis"? Rubbish!
Woke'
where are we now....well we at the position where european union trying to do everything it can to get us to change our mind....localise production...become incelur give jobs to each other...let the bosses earn less...make them sell their second homes, reduce the cost of the home....need to make the banks take the losses so we can have smaller mortgages...and as the rich become poorer the poorer become richer as it all proportionate.
Socialistic point of view. Didn't UK left EU because is too socialistic?
@@alexwars8327 no to stop movement, you can't have socialism under a monetary system...you need dictatorship...as there is only one correct way of thinking...caring sharing which takes organisation...which means you have to tell people what to do..
iff people know its going to be there tomorrow they will take what they need, get rid of competition as more gets done working together...sharing ideas open source information....less choice but you will have the best....3 days a week work...2people for every job...put your name down for activities...we will spend our time reducing waiting lists.... democracy is a sociopathic reaction to psychopaths.
money was created when we couldn't communicate over large distances well, and no mass production... first game was to control the money second game is controlling people....so your being controlled by people who live on their fears and insecurities this never ends well.
ireland should be forced to leave eu as its contrary to the northern ireland protocal and they are supposed to be a neutral country...with the eu army coming undermines that.
And who will force Ireland to leave EU? I see better solution - unified Ireland.
@@alexwars8327 iff you can get those scotch decedents in Northern Ireland to agree
ahahahahahahahahahhah
He sounds like a remainer. What is wrong with him!?
Nothing is wrong with him. He's showing real facts about Britain post Brexit.
he is realistic, and he looks worried, no shit
Over 70% of British are remainer
He is the voice of reason between all the noise. Always been the same...
Increasingly desperate group of whiners here. Move on - it's not healthy living in a largely imaginary past.
More personal abuse and name calling?
Jon Sid - The problem is the present, the job losses, the loss of tax revenue and the loss of investment
Experts will now have to deal with this mess in the present. The same experts that were derided for stating the consequences of brexit. How does a 130 billion pound hole in our economy sound? You seem to be an expert, so tell me what we do to make up such a loss which will manifest into our society very soon?
@@tariqjoseph3562 it sounds like you just made it up to me. 😂
Whiners ?
Sovereignty is worth any price! 17 Million People voted for HARD BREXIT!
Well, they voted for Brexit. Hard Brexit wasn't a thing back then and even most hardcore Brexiteers expected UK to stay in the Single Market. And as it turns out at the moment, not being in the Single Market was indeed a bad outcome!
How do you know , was not an option to select...
Obviously for some it´s also worth taking the will of 48 percent of the population hostage.
No they didn't!!!! This is an obvious lie. Nigel Farage is ON VIDEO saying we could be like Norway. That means we would have been effectively members of the single market. This is not just STUPID, it's dishonest. We never lost our sovereignty. Nobody even MENTIONED 'no deal Brexit' until AFTER the referendum (in Theresa May's Mansion House speech) . We ALWAYS had control of our borders. We weren't in Schengen.
Not a sovereign nation? Then how is it we have different speed limits, different laws on drugs, a very different criminal justice system,a queen, a house of Lords, our own armed services, which we have deployed in recent history in ways that most European states violently disagreed with? (oh Christ, if only we'd followed their example!) We agreed as EU members to adhere to high standards on human rights, food quality, the environment, human rights, conditions of work, and health and safety. We always took part in framing these laws. So what do you want to do with you sovereignty? - Have worse working conditions? More pollution? Worse human rights? Lower food standards?
listen once more what this smart guy said: imostly uneducated people voted for brexit.. these guys winning to me looks like in britain you have more stupid people than smart ones