Elon Confirms Tesla’s Robotaxi is Almost READY for Prime Time!
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- Опубликовано: 6 фев 2025
- Huge thanks to @BrighterwithHerbert for joining the discussion.
Follow him on X:
/ herbertong
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Brian is a top-level content creator. He knows his stuff and he's really funny and he not only appears on others' channels, they're coming to FutureAZA as well - Herbert doesn't appear on many other channels - he's a specialist host but he makes an exception for Brian.
100%. Herbert has excellent guest (like Jeff), so not as much need to be on other channels. His bulls panel is great. Both some of the best channels that deserve more subs.
100%%%%%
When Herbert was considering launching a channel of his own, he reached out to me and I helped him with as much groundwork as possible. What software to use, how to structure the workflow, even best practices on naming the channel. He invited me to be a regular, and the deal I suggested was that if I'm helping him with content, I'd appreciate his help with content over here.
I do this with everyone who invites me on. I figure if I'm helpful over there (wherever it may be,) then they're surely helpful over here. If I can't find a good use for their insights, that's my problem, not theirs.
Herbert has been very kind to me and I appreciate him.
@@FutureAzA Nice. You guys work well together. It makes sense to create a network between channels.
@@FutureAzA Friends! They're like family, but reliable.
FSD by 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 ,2022, 2023, 2024, OK 2025 for sure, that's incredible.
Glad to see you guys are optimistic. The tech has advanced enough that it's easier to be an optimist now vs a few years ago. We are still hearing 'soon' from Elon, in the past that hasn't panned out. V13 has certainly turned a corner (so to speak) so maybe this time we'll get the results we're hoping for /expecting!
I wonder if the technology used by DeepSeek can be reverse engineered by Tesla engineers to make a smaller inference engine that can run on HW3. They have to be looking at that even if it was too recent a development for them to take it into account on the call.
If safety is truly the most important thing to Tesla, they really need to offer a per mile option for FSD.
I don’t drive enough to justify paying for FSD, but there are definitely occasions that I am tired behind the wheel. It could serve as a designated driver on a night out.
They could easily make it more expensive on a per mile basis than the subscription
I worry that would create an incentive to avoid using it. Hypermilers love to gamify how many pennies they can save on a drive, so it's no stretch to imagine people only using it in the most extreme of conditions, long after they should have engaged it.
@ I think you’re thinking about it incorrectly. Those hyper milers (count me in that bunch) are definitely not going to pay $100 per month. But they might spend $10 on a chauffeur twice per month.
I don’t drive enough to justify $100 per month. If I had the option to use it for a few short drives here and there for a couple of bucks each time, Tesla would have more of my money at no extra cost.
For me, squeezing extra miles per kWh has nothing to do with money. It’s just to see if I can
I think it needs to just be bundled into the price of the car. I have an issue with paywalling safety features.
Thanks gentlemen 👍
CRUSH - WHAT competition? There's no real competition!!!!
My experience with FSD is it still misses a lot of speed limit signs. Some that it used to see. When I was in Texas last year, I was traveling in a secondary highway with an 80 MPH speed limit. As I approached a town there were multiple descending speed limit signs taking me all the way down to 25 MPH and FSD missed them all! Same going out of town with ascending speed limit signs. These happened repeatedly through several small towns. Does anyone know if this problem has been corrected?
In my experience, it has not. I control the step down and step up speeds manually on the steering wheel small scroll wheel on the right side
Been saying this for some time
2025 is the Year of Convergence
> Shanghai Energy Production Q1
> Robotaxi Q2
> Optimus Pilot Production and Introduction in Tesla Factories Q3
FSD launch China and Europe Q3 and Q4
Semi Production Q4
CyberCab launch Q4
2026 is the Year of Production Ramp for 2025 New Product
2027 is the Year of Legacy Auto Collapse and Destruction
Idk. M3 fsd v13.2.2 still can get paralyzed with fright in Canadian snow storms on unplowed freshly fallen while still snowing burb streets in Toronto. (Just yesterday). When non snowy, it's a superstar.
10:26 I found a way to clear up the front view without cleaning that camera housing glass! Perl just had some service in Chattanooga last week. Originally, it was to perform a wheel alignment and to clean the inside of the windshield in front of the cameras. A week ahead of the appointment, Perl’s windshield cracked, likely due to me using the max defrost to clear the snow off her in single-digit freedom degrees weather. So bottom line, you won’t have to clean it if you replace it. There’s always another option. 😢
Love the humor💪❤️
It was fun foing thru the preview and the call with all of you Cyberbulks yesterday. Awesome work. The after-hours fluctuation of the stock price was a serious roller coaster ride.
Lol, my apologies...cyber bulls. A slow death by auto correct.
Great video. I'd be astonished if my state was progressive towards FSD unsupervised. Yah, my version v13.2.5.1 is very good. It does have a few quarks, but its always due to road design or confusing paint on the roads. There is a 2 lane road which the right lane changes into a turn lane only, but the paint on the ground does not indicate that till the end, which is only know by local drivers. FSD wants to go into the right lane, as programed, and due to the lack of paint early on it makes a last minute signal to exit into the left lane. If there is a line of cars on the left....well. The city needs to put paint down indicating its a right turn lane...this way FSD will know. The map data appears to be missing due to poor city planning or not submitting the data. It's all human error.
Pithy and informative. Much appreciated
I think you shouldn't count the amount of miles driven on FSD without accidents to compare to amount of miles driven without FSD without accidents. You should count miles on FSD driven without disengagements.
Confidence, optimism, excitement -- good stuff!
Sounds like a salesmen to me. And the sheep that believe
@ Time Tells The Truth.
@cmnhl1329 Broken record since forever, my guy. You were all wrong in the 2010s, and the company's only gotten stronger. Get better material.
Great episode
At the end of 2023\early 2024 my wife bought a model Y. We're in Canada so it ended up being a hardware 3 car from China. The website said that it is full self-driving capable listing all the future features. We did not pay for FSD because we knew we could test the updates with monthly subscriptions. We intended to purchase FSD once it became useful or robotaxis started to exist. I will agree with you purchasing it would have been a gamble that apparently would have paid off better than what we did. But I do think they should do something to appease the people that trusted the websites promises of future abilities. I see they have since changed that verbiage but that was not always the case.
7:24 it is not to improve safety that people turn off FSD to look at their devices, Herbert, people turn off FSD to mess with stuff because otherwise, FSD will complain or at worst turn off or even block them from using it if they left it on.
This! But i also turn it off and on a bunch because it's great in some places and not in others. So I'm sure there's less intervention need than is really happening.
@ agreed, though I was speaking to the specific case where someone might turn off FSD so that it wouldn’t fuss about them taking their attention from the road. Like you, I rarely just let FSD have the reins where I prefer a different path around potholes than it is taking, or when it tries to take a curve or turn a little too tightly. I often take over on certain poorly marked multilane protected left turns where FSD doesn’t always follow the faded lane. In some construction zones I like my driving better, in some I like FSD’s better.
Thanks guys!
Good to hear. I have a 2020 model 3 AWD with FSD purchased $7000. So according to what you guys said I should get the AI4 installed in my car for free nice.
My wife and son's cars are in the same boat. Will be interesting to see if/when HW4 gets installed. It will be a massive service job.
That's my understanding.
In reference to Tesla drivers turning off FSD to check emails. Why couldn't the program allow eyes to off the road for longer times when on roads with low traffic and then require more attention when coming to an intersection or in city driving? I would be very interested in what Leon thinks of this idea.
I’m not sure how the drop off point will work but that’s different than parking.
Very encouraging!
If thousands of cars were driving around driverless, then thousands of people would have noticed and told another thousands of people.
Did this happen overnight? How long has it been going on?
I use FSD every day. Almost never touch anything. It’s fantastic. It sucked from 2019 until about a year ago. Now it’s un-freaking believable.
I can’t wait to see you and Chattanooga, Tennessee. You did not just say sack on your RUclips channel.😂😂 😂😂 you know who
Awesome thank you!
Adjust route for sun! Way out there!
Waymo already has several-fold fewer accidents per mile than human driven cars, according to Swiss Re. Tesla needs to release data, or an insurer or reinsurer needs to analyze its data, in order for us to know. "Trust me bro" will only suffice so far.
Ahhhhhhh! You just heard the last grasp of Old Danny-boy O'Doubt!
The call was definitely very awesome and as much as that video Tesla put earlier that day about the new Model Y Juniper driving driver free to the factory outlot!!!
I am not happy with the idea that I needed to buy fsd up front to get a hardware 3 upgrade. I bought my 2023 model y in January of 23. I paid 56,560 for it which completely took all my savings. Before I bought it hardware 4 had already been announced which I was expecting would be on my car. As it turned out my car was built in Fremont and they were being built with hw3. My son bought a model Y a few months later and his had hw4. I have been renting fsd because that is my only option. I am 74 and retired and on fixed income ie social security and I know this is the last car I will buy and was counting on fsd to allow me to continue driving even as I get older. So I am disappointed that my dream car is not going to live up to my hopes.
My hope is they'd give an account credit for it for people who subscribe.
@@FutureAzA Thanks Brian. I met you once at one of the meetups at the Portland Tesla service center.
We have a big event coming up on April 26th. Find more at the OEVA.org website.
Regarding the windshield fogging issue, all cars off gas-especially the newer they are. It is the seat and upholstery treatments that off gas. What always concerned me is sure the windshield fogs, but we are breathing that off gass in the mean time. I always leave my windows cracked in the heat of the summer to hopefully vent away alot of that off gassing. I dont know how effective it is, but it makes me feel better.
Hmmm, I think Teslas have HEPA filters 👍
Don't like that lovely, "new car smell"? (AKA I'm being poisoned)
I suspect that the off-gassing is that "new car smell". I keep my windows cracked in summer just to vent interior heat.
@@vermontsownboy6957 Yes, I am pretty sure that's what it is. VOCs are not good.
Do Tesla cameras need eyelids? Animals didn't evolve eyelids for no reason.
Version 13 is a nice incremental improvement, but it still feels a long way off from full autonomy. It has started to go after stopping at a red light, it tries to pull out in to traffic when it shouldn’t, it can’t navigate well in many scenarios, it can’t manage lanes ending well, it’s easily blinded by rain and low angle sun, it makes lane violations all the time, it doesn’t seem to see or understand turn signals, it doesn’t see swing arm gates, it doesn’t handle changing speed limits well, it is nowhere near safe enough to use without supervision.
I think you are driving something else, I haven't touched the wheel for weeks
@@SzaszaG1Me either. It’s almost perfect here in Des Moines, which isn’t exactly San Francisco. I hardly ever touch anything. I turn it off occasionally, just to keep my driving skills sharp.
I disengaged 13.2.2 3 or 4 times in a 15 mile trip tonight. Still waiting for Tesla to solve autonomous windshield wiping too.
@@SzaszaG1 one intervention today out of one 5-mile trip. FSD tried to drive around a line of cars exiting a grocery store parking lot, probably confusing the back of the line for a parked car. This was not safety critical only because few people carry in this part of this state.
@ It just tried to run a red light again. At 4 way intersections where cross traffic stops at the same time but oncoming traffic gets a green while I still have a red, 13.2.2 starts moving through the solid red light as soon as oncoming traffic starts moving. I assume it thinks its at a blinking red. The most troubling part of this is we’re still struggling to get the AI model to understand some very basic scenarios that would be easy to define in conventional logic code. I trust they’ll get there eventually, but I don’t know if it will be months or decades.
Hi FAzA
Do you know of any plans to extend Tesla Energy buisness for solar roof and powerwalls? Today almost all countries in Europe have no access to Tesla Energy services and there are potentially many homes in Scandinavia for example that would like to have the option to install batteries with backup from Tesla. Any news about that?
I haven't heard anything. Those divisions are a lot harder to get leaks out of.
How does FSD work in the snow?
Not great. With snow covered neighborhood streets, car does not stay on the right side of the road . . . it thinks it is a one lane road. Also, speed control is not good . . . needs to drive slower than speed limit when road surface is snow covered.
With FSD we have seen recently some interventions by yourself and others that show real safety concerns, including getting itself in pickle and even though items such as lorries showing on the display, no attempt to break. How can you believe what has been said?
Brian was funny as Herbert has no idea who I am none yet from time to time I get caught up when he’s hosting an X as a speaker and I’ll battle to the death. My sub $25,000 car or my Tesla Dodge minivan.😢
Can somebody please, please deal with the camera cleaning issue?? Why do so many online "experts" have the same "don't look up" method of ignoring the only major hardware issue left? Unbelievable how maddening it is.
I hate watching northern testers like Dirty Tesla basically being told to just shut up.
In case this is the first video you're watching on this channel, that's something I've talked about a number of times, as recently as within the past week.
I'll check the rest of them this week
I'll check the rest of your videos the last week...Thanks. Usually watch all of them back in the Giga Texas days. I really believe this is "the" issue that must not be ignored or tesla will keep "forgetting" to mention it.
SETI park showed a new patent that takes care of the sun blinding
I wonder how many bricks ol’ Dan produced as he watched the 10/10 event, I bet he wishes he had some of that money back .. 😬😬😬😬😬😲😲😧😧😵😵😵💫😵💫💰💰💰
I confident with Tesla and I have NOT FSD on a 2013 S you boys are out a head con grats
@11:11 If you bought a *Tesla* vehicle and didn't _buy_ *FSD* at the same time, you're [expletive] for the free upgrade.
*Tesla* is _not_ going to upgrade the hardware for something you *_never_*_ used._
I’m sad, not sad that I transferred FSD to our Model Y HW4 when it was first offered. We still use the 3 but I’m sure we would never qualify for a “free” upgrade. On the other hand the 3 seems to be getting updates about 3:1 over the Y. Maybe we’ll put it in the robotaxi fleet someday. I don’t miss the updates on the Y now V13 is working so well.
I wonder if FSD could tank the resale value on non-FSD cars. Probably, but not the end of the world.
We need specialized, steep disincentives against saboteurs who would cause accidents by reckless driving or hobbling cameras…
Name and shame. We got the cameras.
Ashok pronunciation: TREES: Ash-oak. That is how he says it himself. But it is a common name that people pronounce differently based on all sorts of factors.
Thank you!
The last 1% of the solution often takes more time than the first 99%.
FSD cameras don't seem to be affected by direct sunlight like our eyes do.
The resolution of the human eye are orders significant better than the FSD cameras.
Likewise, the human eye dynamic range…
Elon 2017: By the end of the year coast to coast, no intervention, feature complete.
Elon 2025: by the end of the year, coast to coast feature complete
It can drive but it isn't good at droping off/parking on its own. It doesn't really "understand" where it is. Parking lots are confusing enough for humans. It can't read, so it makes illegal turns on red.
It's not almost ready. But they'll start it in Texas anyhow.
My Y missed a STOP sign (on my corner which I've stopped at for a year...) The wind made it twist and more difficult to see - but a human (me) did and it didn't. FSD needs to p[ay attention 'differently' for windy days... also should somehow learn and 'wonder' why it isn't seeing the sign 'now.' yes reported.
There will be no remote driver. "one in ten" what difference is that gonna male? have you never driven a car?
Stupid
Is OnStar remotely monitoring that Cadillac that just drove by?
Same idea.
I’ve watched many humanoid robots walking but they all seem to walk “flat-footed”. They don’t seem to “toe-off” like humans do when they walk. Any reason for this?
Likely just a heel toe center of gravity nuance that will be solved eventually. I was reading about a half marathon race in China where they are inviting as many different humanoid competitors to compete alongside humans. You would need to solve that flat footedness to be anywhere near fluid.
If you have tried walking on icy and uneven surfaces, that is how you walk. Basically they are "afraid" to fall. Old people walk in a similar way for similar reasons. They need some reckless bravery in the algorithm. Also: They don't have toes. Toes are important. If you have an extremely stiff sole, you will also walk in a similar way. Alpine ski boots, wooden clogs, those strange ancient Chinese things that keep you out of the medieval mud, that sort of thing.
I though I saw that Optimus at least can flex/bend its feet but maybe I am wrong. It's still walking pretty flat footed. That outdoor walk was amazing though.
@ I think the newest Optimus foot has a little flex. Far from wiggling its robot toes, though. 😅
@@geirmyrvagnes8718 That’s true. I’m 70 and walk flat-footed on ice with knees bent for stability.
Effect of Inventory Reduction on Profit? If vehicle inventory goes from 19 days at end of third quarter to 12 days at end of 4th quarter, is the 7 days reduction like making an extra 7 days of cars in the 4th quarter but taking the expense in the 3rd quarter?
🌞🤚👍🤞
👍🏻🙏🏻❤️
FSD fairly recently was recorded ignoring a deer in the road. I can't imagine trusting my life to a system which might run into a deer or another obstacle. There is a serious need for radar or lidar to add an obstacle detection method to FSD. I would feel safer if the speed were limited to 35 MPH to minimize the danger. Robotaxis on slower city roads might be a success. There is a better solution ready for the taker.
Let them hope. They sleep better. It’s nearing visual camera potential and its ceiling.
Not sure what video you saw. The only ones I've seen were where the deer bolted across traffic out of nowhere. Humans also hit the deer in that situation because they move very fast and can change direction quickly, and often unpredictably.
I don't believe there's any such thing as a human remote driver. this will be GROK in car and Collosus or DOJO which will run scenarios and supervise remotely IMHO. Why not? It drives BETTER than a human at that point, at scale, so why use a human at all? I also think we (investors) fully appreciate the honesty from Elon. If tesla needs to upgrade the hardware for FSD v3 cars then they should. Any of these cars in the taxi network will more than make enough money to reap the costs back and then some.
In many places it's a legal requirement. They don't have to be engaged to a particular vehicle, but if there's a 'stuck' situation, there needs to be a backup. My car got stuck twice last weekend trying to leave a fairly new, apparently unmapped Costco.
@@FutureAzA Thanks Brian. I listened when you said the car stuck at that Costco. It was probably trying to tell you to get some icecream :) We can only speculate if the car could ask DOJO (or whichever cluster) for help, maybe its asks the cluster first and if still stuck then asks for a human. I will be shocked if Tesla can't get past this seemingly smaller hurdle.
If Elon claims it that’s a pretty good guarantee it’s not ready.
For me it's more about timelines. If it's more than a month or two out, it's more likely to slip.
But he did say it’s contingent upon regulatory approval. And it ain’t level 5 which he has been promising since 2016. Hard cope. But the pumpers will pump.
Its about time tesla started catching up as autox in china has had fsd robotaxis all over china for last 5 months driving driverless on all roads
The blind worship of Doctor Goebbels…Sad.
Your EDS is sad. 😢
Clown
@ Heil Tesla! Keep drinking Doctor Goebbels’ Kool-Aid😲
I love everything about TESLA, FSD, their cars, and Elon's Space X, brains, tunnels, etc., but legislation is not produced by these companies, and outside the USA things will be even more difficult (in China, fine, until they imitate FSD and send Elon back home). I really do not like him in politics, especially what he is doing in Europe, against democracies.
Wish Elon would stay out of politics. His right wing extremism and comments are hurting Tesla
Agreed about his antics. It's like in the last few years he's become infected with a growing level of right wing lunacy verging on fascism. I suspect that if he continues on this track that some time in the future the Board at Tesla may have to invite him to take a hike as Steve Jobs was asked to do .
That's one way to look at it - i.e., legislation determined wither FSD will succeed because it can only succeed if it is allowed. But the other perspective is that if a technology is so good it would be foolish for governments to deny that from the people. Can you imagine in scenario where people in US are reaping the productivity and quality of life gains from autonomy while people in Europe must drive themselves because the regulators do not like Elon's politics?
Unsupervised FSD will come, in two, three years.
But once fatal accidents will take place (unavoidable) the whole legal circus will start over again.
This has become a religion.
I doubt you know anything about religion 🙄
It's weird, right? I get fandom, but ANTI-Fandom? Super bizarre. Stalking a topic just to hate on the fans is the weirdest cult I've ever seen.
The call was definitely very awesome and as much as that video Tesla put earlier that day about the new Model Y Juniper driving driver free to the factory outlot!!!