That KK hand is such a tough spot. I think your assessment is right though - bad turn bet, but here you are in this new spot facing a raise and the pot odds make sense to call. What a river. Great commentary! Thanks for the insight!
While I do like the math…. It is extremely important to remember that poker is also a game of reads, and generally at low stakes people only get their money in with made hands and don’t bluff too much.
glad to see more poker content! helpful vlog tip: keep track of the action somewhere on the screen for each street so your viewers can look back and reference the actions that’s happened (BB opens to $100, UTG calls $100, Button raises to $350, etc)
Just a little constructive criticism…. Please add estimated stack sizes. It matters. Also you’ve said you’re a beginner so show some beginner mistakes and what you’ve learned from them. Positive note. You are a math professor so show the math it’s good for your niche in this over saturated market
Awesome first video brother. Cool that you included the math there in the middle. Nice perspective for people who are also new . Subscribed and looking forward to the next one
Would suggest some caution in bluffing 5 ways without a lot of equity, we have to be very selective as one person will always wake up with something. Unbelievable that the opponent called middle pair on the turn with this configuration. You can exploit this game easily. Excited for the next vlog
really enjoyed the video, the calming nature of it was really. nice compared to most every other poker vlogger (not that theyre bad, just a nice change up).
The mathematical breakdown of pot odds as well as the opponents potential holding was interesting to see on the “chalkboard”. Good luck with your vlog. Better luck with your game.
I would ditch the full cards in the graphics in favor of simpler Letter and Symbol combos (T❤️/9♠️for example)... should be easier to edit also. Put some light music on in the background it will help you with viewer retention. Love the blackboard animation for the math explanation. And maybe you should try writing what you're going to be recording for the voice over beforehand, a lot of it sounds very impromptu, I think if you said it with more confidence it would sound better. Subscribed, going to follow your journey, have fun and congrats on booking a win on the first episode ^^
Great first vlog! I do have one suggestion, if possible you should include effective stack sizes especially if this channel is going to be heavily focused on the math of poker. SPR is crucial in proper math decisions at the poker table. Good luck.
About the KK hand, you shouldn't think about which bluffs that you can find in this spot. You should think about what the population will bluff. I believe that in low stakes people won't turn TT & 99 into a bluff, maybe even not AT. With TT & 99 people tend to think they have showdown, they don't think about turning it in a bluff. Fun vlog btw!
I enjoyed your first video and appreciated the math lesson on Pot Odds. I hope you include something similar in the future or other quick poker math lessons. You may also want to the effective stack size of the villain and maybe include the time of the hand.
11:39 When counting combinations you did good my eliminating most AA combos as they should raise pre 100% in theory, but maybe a combo or two in practice is good. Now further down you count some other combinations which are fairly unlikely depending on the player, you gave them 16 combos of T9, which means you assume they play all 4 suited combos AND 12 offsuit combos, which isnt the case if they are a solid player, if they are loose they might have a decent amount of those, but you cant really give them 100% of all offsuit combos. This also applies to other combos which you mentioned. For example, how many combos of J8 can they have, J8 isnt an attractive hand to even rec players, so you cant expect (m)any offsuit combos, but you counted 2J*3(8s)=6 combos, if you look at the board it shows JsJd8c, which means the only suited combo left is Jh8h. So definitely pay attention to this, because if you overcount offsuit combos, the math is no where near right.
From someone who plays everyday. on the hand where you have KK and the flop comes JJQ i think the initial CBet on flop is 100% mandatory. On the turn considering that the player has already called you once...and checks i personally would elect to check back and take the free card. The reason for this is because there are many bluffs he can have on the turn. where he wont want to fold and can put you in a tough spot by check raising you like he did. this creates the whole pot odds situation where you are practically pot committed to call for your stack now. I prefer to go for some pot control and check the turn and re-valuate on the river becasue it is an easier call if he bets river and you save money if you are wrong. I can also evaluate his body movement, betsize, and other factors when he bets river vs him jamming turn... Hope that helps
You’re missing an important element of the math in that KK hand facing a turn jam. Until the River, you need to consider not just how many combinations you are ahead of or behind, but also your EQUITY against that range.
like how you break down pot odds. as for the hand itself: given your aggressive line I really doubt he has as many bluffs if any. Also some of the hands like AQ and TT i would assume 3bet preflop so his range is actually capped. I also don't like your big turn bet after one of the more likely straight draws get in . As you point out later he has all of the Jx hands and also 9T wich all line up with his preflop and flop play. So a large percentage of his range either got you outflopped or outturned. arguing "Giving I still beat AQ, i assume to have the best hand" is not a good way to look at it. having said that I subscribed and like to find a new vlog. always interested in how other people play and think. keep up the good work.
You can actually bet more on the river with your nut flush when top pair doesn’t change. A good heuristic is to value bet small(er) when top pair changes on the river. and bet larger when top pair doesn’t change since low stakes players are sticky with top pair
Tough love incoming. I promise this is coming from a well-intentioned place. I'm speaking from experience here as a math guy who overestimated his abilities early on. Your math background will help you only if you're willing to study. Otherwise it's going to get you crushed, because you will be confidently incorrect very often, and you'll spend way more time on the nasty part of the Dunning-Kruger curve than you need to. Some notes: - Your thought process about the pot odds of calling off with KK makes sense if the bet had come on the river. But because there's still one more card to come, you don't "beat" bluffs, you simply have equity against them. Understanding the equity a bluffing range has against your hand is essential to assessing pot odds. - In theory, you should always open any suited ace from any position. The goal of a poker strategy isn't to always win the hand, it's to try to make your decisions as easy as possible and your opponent's decisions as difficult as possible. If you get re-raised, that's an easy fold. Suited aces play themselves and have tremendous implied odds if you play them well. - "I'm not entirely sure if a raise would be in order given that 89 would be a straight" - you're playing passively because you're worried about the 4 combinations of the nuts. This makes no sense. The point of a (semi-)bluff is not to fold out the nuts, it's to fold out marginal hands that are better than yours. If you want to learn, I'd recommend reading Applications of No Limit Holdem by Matthew Janda. Game-theory optimal strategy isn't something you want to play at live tables, but you need to understand theoretically perfect play in order to be able to identify and exploit deviations from it, otherwise even breakeven 2-5 regs are going to eat you for lunch once they've played a few thousand hands with you. Good luck, homie. You seem like a good dude.
He has about as much equity against the hands that are beating him (besides JJ) as the bluffs that aren't drawing dead do against him, so it's basically irrelevant.
@@Jermo484 Oh no the equity still comes out to around 36%, but treating flop/turn bluffs the same way you treat zero-equity bluffs is gonna get you in trouble
@@gramscii sure, but I think it's more likely he was simplying slightly. It's a live situation. No one should be taking the time at a low stakes live game to completely calculate the equity of a villain's entire range. It's a spot where obviously you're live against basically everything and most things are live against you, but that's a small piece of the overall equity.
@@Jermo484 Of course you shouldn't be doing this live in every spot. He's doing it on a "chalkboard" and in retrospect. And maybe he's just simplifying, but it's a tad generous to give him the benefit of the doubt here. I mean, the previous KK hand he turned KK into a bluff as soon as the flop came ace high, and his reasoning is... very not good. The guy is clicking buttons and he thinks he knows what he's doing. It's a recipe for disaster. A touch of humility and a month of study and this guy could be a winning player at 1/3 live, but that can't happen while he still thinks he's decent
Good luck. You should talk about the math on each hand that you play since you are a Math Professor. That is what sets you apart from most of the poker vloggers out there. Just a thought.
Was intrigued by the title but after three hands I might have to give up. I think what can differentiate you from the large number of other poker vlogs is your math background. I’d love to hear voice over that discusses and explains the math of decision making. Absent that, I think you fall through the cracks of same old same old. Good luck finding your voice and style.
11:00 You write that you need to find approximately one hand you beat for every three you lose to, then you write that you need to find 14 bluffs for the 56 value hands that Villain could have. That's a ratio of 1:4, not 1:3. Or maybe I failed at the math. 😀
Subbed! I know these are hard to do but the chalkboard math section will help me a ton. I’d rather a couple of hands in a video if they had that kind of analysis!
2:40 lol starting your poker vlog trying to introduce the concept of a PLO Double board bomb pot 😂 Lucky most your viewers are degen poker addicts I guess who can follow 😊
Great vlog Professor! Given that you are you math professor, I'm actually surprised that you didn't break down the time that you played and how much you made/loss per hour. Also something to consider, the actual time and date you start, and in what casino did you play. Having the undergrad in statistics I really like the breakdown of pot odds! That was really great solid vlog! Let me know when you're in the NC area. Have a ton of games all week-long. J Dub
On your last hand, IMO, you should have raised after the villain's beer in the turn. You took a huge risk allowing him(?) to catch the river card... Imagine he had 10c Xo... You'd have lost had the river been a club. All in, and force him out. Great vlog.
You can very often look to discount preflop non premiums. Sometimes I’m wrong, but I am discounting J8 and J9 on the preflop range, for instance, on the KK hand. What does the player play, usually? Because to me, this looks like AK, AQ, AJ, QQ. Maaaybe AT.
Nice first vid. I live in Omaha NE, if your planning on playing at the casino unfortunately they don't allow filming. I'd invite you to a home game, but the stakes are probably too small for your liking lol
Unless I’m taking crazy pills here, your poker math was wrong. You need to win 22% of the time. Totally fine with that. The percentage view is the way I usually look at pot odds as well, so no issues. You then mention that if you round to 25%, you can also view that as the 1:3 or 3:1 ratio depending on how you want to say it, i.e., you need to beat 1 hand for every 3 hands that beat you. Still good: these are just different ways of saying the same thing. But you have to be careful switching back and forth between these two viewpoints, which I think is where you erred. When counting combos, you divided the number of combos you beat by the number of combos that beat you, and you said this has to be more than 22% (or 25% if you’re rounding). But in fact, it would have to be more than 1/3 because you’re looking at the ratio of wins to losses, i.e., you’re working with the 1:3 viewpoint here. What you *should* be doing if you’re viewing your pot odds as 25% is counting the number of combos you win out of the total, i.e., 20/76 or 26%. This is a little more than the 22% you need, so calling would be fine if you ranged villain correctly, but it’s not a slam dunk. I also think you’re ranging your opponent incorrectly for this sort of situation. I would be very surprised to see villain show up with TT or 99 here - these hands hardly ever bluff at low stakes. I also don’t see people bluff that much on paired broadway boards like this, so I would be a bit surprised to see AT and KT as well unless it’s specifically clubs. That said, I do expect villain to show up with some random spazzes as well as KQ, QT, Q9, 8T and 89 with some frequency.
I should also mention that I was thinking TT and 99 were actually the most likely bluffing bluffing hands since they block the straight on this board. Perhaps trying to bluff me off a J? But it’s interesting that you and someone else that commented with detailed feedback both said similar things about the opponent having TT and 99 here. Thanks for your input!
Funny, I actually put him on 10-9, the only real logical hand he could have shoved on the turn with. There is no bluffing in this position for him, put your outs are too high to fold. I actually look at it differently. I say, " what percentage is my out if I am beat?" I still have 3 8's, 3 Q's, and 2 K's. which is about 17 percent.
Hey, great video, I just subscribed!! It would be amazing if you could make videos regarding the maths behind poker and how to calculate EV and Pot odds, again, great video!!!
Subbed and liked. As another teacher (English though) who plays and enjoys the subtleties poker has to offer, I'm digging the pedagogical approach! Good luck! :) After finishing, I also had this thought: another interesting spot to run some numbers for future episodes might be that 33 hand. When you arrive on the river having barrelled 2 streets, what ranges of hands specifically is he likely to have there? Given the hands that would fold to a pot-size bet, versus the hands that would not, does it make sense to put in that last barrel? Generally, one can use 1:1 as risk/reward as you're likely to make a pot-size bet, but it would actually be lower if you think he'd fold (x) hands regardless if sizing is 3/4 or even half when considering the player type. My experience is that many players would see strength with a half sizing at those levels.
12:40 you question whether or not your $150 bet was good or not. I think that is 100% the correct play in that situation. (writing all of this before seeing how the hand plays out) You want to charge the flush draw. So you need to bet high enough that anyone holding any flush draw not containing the A to be uncomfortable. In this spot it’s even better for you because you have the Kc giving you the blocker to the 2nd nuts. Which further reduces combos of flush draws out there. This is even better for you since the Qc is accounted for. Meaning at best they have AXc, JXc, or worse. If JXc or worse then they will have to worry about their flush draw being beat by alot of combos of higher flushes and you can account for one of them, which is knowledge your opponent is unaware of. If the Ac comes on the river, you have a great spot to turn your hand into a bluff. Anyone sitting there with anything below JXc is going to be in a tough spot because your story looks like KXc when you lead preflop and bet on the turn. If they don’t have the Jc but instead something like T9c, they are going to be sick. The shove by the Villian in this case would seem like 1 of 2 cases. Either A. On a flush draw and hoping that they can take the pot down without needing to have the river to help. Or B. Has trips and wanting to push a lower flush off by attempting to rep a better flush draw forcing the fold. The unfortunate part about the second case is it’s entirely possible the villian has JXc and is on a combo draw with Trips currently. In that spot, they are well ahead with trips but the flush draw while improving their hand also opens them up to losing to all the combos so QXc+ which ultimately puts them in a tough spot if they make it to the river. If the villain makes it to the river with JXc without the shove and a club comes out, followed by a jam or another large bet from you, that’s going to be a rough spot for them. It’s much more in their interest to shove now with JX. So I think you played it correct with the $150 bet because hands not containing a J or AXc are likely to move out of the way. However, I think calling there even with pot odds is a difficult decision. You need a live read there. If they are bad it’s likely trips and you’re looking for 2 outs. If they are good, a bluff with AXc is likely. Pot odds are great, but sometimes you gotta know who you’re playing against also. (After seeing result) The shove with 10c9h is a questionable one by sure. Definitely not a super strong player. Especially since he seemed excited with 1 card still to come and lots of club still out there that beat you. With the early position raise preflop I personally wouldn’t be in the hand with 109o so I would’ve absolutely kept that in mind for the future. Im sure In his head he was thinking with the 10c accounted if the flush comes the only likely combos that beat me are AKc, AJc, KJc, or The combos of AXs, KXs, and JXs. Since it’s unlikely anyone has worse than a 10 high flush and is calling. So he wants to do exactly what I said by charging the draw. The only hands he is really targeting there is JXo or hoping the river is a brick and you get paid by a bad player who can get away from trips. I think in that situation he should’ve flat called. Since then if the flush hits you can run if needed, and if it bricks you have a very very hidden straight. Nevertheless, I do think he put you in a rough spot since you’re holding none of the hands he is really targeting and he has you specifically crushed. Good hero call, pot odds helped you in this situation absolutely, and now with the player information in mind, next time you do the calculation you need to include some questionable holdings as well, which likely gives you more equity. 19:20 Don’t open pocket 3s from UTG. You should be REALLY tight UTG unless playing with people you have an edge on. And ESPECIALLY do not call a raise with 33. Unless you are in a tournament or something where you pray you’re flipping against AK.. it’s a bad play. If you’re late position you can absolutely open 33 and maybe call a BB squeeze with them, but other than that you should be folding them to UTG or to a raise 99% of the time
The second KK hand was butchered in every possible way if you have any understanding game theory optimal. Flop sizing is horrendous and filters out the weak holding that would normally should continue vs a normal 1/3 pot sized bet. That means a lot of the combos you assign to villain as bluffs on the turn should not exist at all. Calling AT 3/4 pot on the flop with a player behind seems extremely unlikely. Also after bombing the turn yourself you filter even more your opponents range. Essentially he doesn't have any folding equity given the pot odds so their bluffs are almost non existent. So if they are completely bad they could have AQ and shove but I even doubt that. So in my opinion for your calculations on your turn equity you should only consider his jx and 9t combos and calculate If you are getting the right price to suck out...
Agreed, flop sizing is very bad either want to check back or go 1/4 or less pot, IMO after the flop bet, turn should have been checked back holding k of clubs to bluff catch river, the flop bet pretty much folds out everything he would get value from on the turn, also blocks k10. (queen can probably comfortably fold turn vs big bet as played) and he's only really owning himself vs a jack after the turn bet.
@@ClubGGRetrac Yeah he doesn't understand GTO. The only shove on the turn was a 10-9, or AJ, but more likely a mad str8. 1/4 bet on the flop would have done it's job, not need for such a huge bet.
I feel like at 7:14 that was a very risky 80 dollar raise. You’re targeting QQ but I feel like a lot of the time you’re going against AA, AK, or JJs, all of which have you crushed. It went your way this time but I’m not too sure that’s a positive EV play considering the pre flop action
Brother I know you’re new to poker but you’re spreading some DANGEROUS logic on here 😅. I would LOVE to play at table with you especially if it’s strictly a bomb pot table 😂
Honestly good idea…I’ll see what I can do 😂 it’s hard capturing these hands live, not slow down the game, and also think about what might be the best play!
Please keep a lifetime running total (at least for the games you vlog) at the end of future videos. And maybe include hours played. So many poker vlogs make it look like easy money, concentrating on the wins, diminishing the losses, including lost hours. A vlog lifetime $/hour to flow would be super unique and interesting.
Subscribed - rooting for you and excited for the next one! Also - shouldn't you use 20/(20+56) = 26.3% to justify your call in the KK hand? (Not to mention your outs if you're behind, which is also relevant 😜)
Former math professor myself; Newer poker player myself. Enjoy my subscription and good luck in the journey. May we both win.
Thanks!
That KK hand is such a tough spot. I think your assessment is right though - bad turn bet, but here you are in this new spot facing a raise and the pot odds make sense to call. What a river.
Great commentary! Thanks for the insight!
Thanks Dan! Appreciate the support!
Also an English teacher who enjoys live poker, strangely enough. Liked and subscribed. It'll be fun to follow your vlog!
This is the content I love. Getting to watch a poker vlog and learning poker math. Keep up the great work!!
I will be here for the rest of the ride I’m committed to your channel
While I do like the math…. It is extremely important to remember that poker is also a game of reads, and generally at low stakes people only get their money in with made hands and don’t bluff too much.
I got here through instagram, great blog! Tell them EJ says hi!
glad to see more poker content! helpful vlog tip: keep track of the action somewhere on the screen for each street so your viewers can look back and reference the actions that’s happened (BB opens to $100, UTG calls $100, Button raises to $350, etc)
Unnecessary
Yes yes yes and yes!
This is going to be a killer channel.
Just a little constructive criticism…. Please add estimated stack sizes. It matters. Also you’ve said you’re a beginner so show some beginner mistakes and what you’ve learned from them. Positive note. You are a math professor so show the math it’s good for your niche in this over saturated market
great video.....let's see more hands on the next one...also love the math breakdown
Excellent start my friend. Great video as great narrative. Thanks for the share
You snapped man! Off to a great start too! I’m here for the ride 🤞🏽💪🏽
Here for the poker. Stayed for the math, and your new journey.
Loved that you went over the pot odds! Great first one, can’t wait for the next vid! 🎉
Nice vlog really helpful to watch you talk through calculating pot odds and combinations, please do more of that.
Great video! Loved the math breakdown!
Awesome first video brother. Cool that you included the math there in the middle. Nice perspective for people who are also new . Subscribed and looking forward to the next one
cool vlog professor, I'm a psychology student at Texas Tech and study/play poker as a hobby
Love the math. I'd love to see it in every vlog. Also some background music would def help, but great job for your first vlog!!
Would suggest some caution in bluffing 5 ways without a lot of equity, we have to be very selective as one person will always wake up with something. Unbelievable that the opponent called middle pair on the turn with this configuration. You can exploit this game easily. Excited for the next vlog
really enjoyed the video, the calming nature of it was really. nice compared to most every other poker vlogger (not that theyre bad, just a nice change up).
The mathematical breakdown of pot odds as well as the opponents potential holding was interesting to see on the “chalkboard”.
Good luck with your vlog. Better luck with your game.
Finally a poker vlog from a new perspective
Subscribed, congrats on making your first vlog!
I would ditch the full cards in the graphics in favor of simpler Letter and Symbol combos (T❤️/9♠️for example)... should be easier to edit also.
Put some light music on in the background it will help you with viewer retention.
Love the blackboard animation for the math explanation.
And maybe you should try writing what you're going to be recording for the voice over beforehand, a lot of it sounds very impromptu, I think if you said it with more confidence it would sound better.
Subscribed, going to follow your journey, have fun and congrats on booking a win on the first episode ^^
Love a good poker vlog. Look forward to your take on things given your background. Good luck 👍
This is dope, might wanna improve the sound quality with a better mic though! Great stuff!
Audio has been fixed with Episode 2!
My father was a math professor for over 40 years. I got a B+ on a calc test, and he was livid! 😂
Subbed bc you’re very wholesome sounding and send like you’re into poker for the right reasons
Only one reason to plAy poker for the money
Great first vlog! I do have one suggestion, if possible you should include effective stack sizes especially if this channel is going to be heavily focused on the math of poker. SPR is crucial in proper math decisions at the poker table. Good luck.
Great video I’m definitely tagging along to see your journey hope you good luck in the poker streets
great video, good luck with your journey
About the KK hand, you shouldn't think about which bluffs that you can find in this spot. You should think about what the population will bluff. I believe that in low stakes people won't turn TT & 99 into a bluff, maybe even not AT. With TT & 99 people tend to think they have showdown, they don't think about turning it in a bluff. Fun vlog btw!
Thanks for your comment! I will keep this in mind!
@@Professor_Poker yeah at these stakes a lot of the hands you have in the bluff range are just folding flop or even preflop
@@Professor_Poker when you bet 150 and villain only has 335 total you look pot committed too so people are gonna bluff even less there
Love the vlog keep up the good work!!
Fellow poker vlogger/math nerd in academia setting. Love the video, want to see more soon
Double board plo can be a nightmare, keep up the vlogs!
Professor, this is a gr8 intro vlog. I think the pokersphere is ready to see some new faces!! Sub'D
Just subbed! Can’t wait til you make it big and I can say I was one of your first thousand subs 😂
Good luck!!
I'm the 1,300th sub. Looking forward to seeing what ya got!
I enjoyed your first video and appreciated the math lesson on Pot Odds. I hope you include something similar in the future or other quick poker math lessons. You may also want to the effective stack size of the villain and maybe include the time of the hand.
11:39 When counting combinations you did good my eliminating most AA combos as they should raise pre 100% in theory, but maybe a combo or two in practice is good. Now further down you count some other combinations which are fairly unlikely depending on the player, you gave them 16 combos of T9, which means you assume they play all 4 suited combos AND 12 offsuit combos, which isnt the case if they are a solid player, if they are loose they might have a decent amount of those, but you cant really give them 100% of all offsuit combos. This also applies to other combos which you mentioned.
For example, how many combos of J8 can they have, J8 isnt an attractive hand to even rec players, so you cant expect (m)any offsuit combos, but you counted 2J*3(8s)=6 combos, if you look at the board it shows JsJd8c, which means the only suited combo left is Jh8h. So definitely pay attention to this, because if you overcount offsuit combos, the math is no where near right.
Following along with you. I'm starting a poker journey as a math teacher as well. Good Luck man!
Love seeing the math behind it too. Would be cool to see you work out the math for a couple of hands per vlog.
Nice video man. I'm older but getting back into it playing now. I'll brush up watching your video's.
Cool video, love the breakdown of pot odds
New to your channel. Excellent commentary and breakdowns. You really need to explore coaching with your math skills.
Subbed. Great analysis.
From someone who plays everyday.
on the hand where you have KK and the flop comes JJQ
i think the initial CBet on flop is 100% mandatory.
On the turn considering that the player has already called you once...and checks i personally would elect to check back and take the free card.
The reason for this is because there are many bluffs he can have on the turn. where he wont want to fold and can put you in a tough spot by check raising you like he did. this creates the whole pot odds situation where you are practically pot committed to call for your stack now.
I prefer to go for some pot control and check the turn and re-valuate on the river becasue it is an easier call if he bets river and you save money if you are wrong. I can also evaluate his body movement, betsize, and other factors when he bets river vs him jamming turn... Hope that helps
Thanks!
Sub’d for your journey. Btw your demeanor and your tone it makes for a pleasant viewing experience
Very good video. Really enjoyed the math.
You’re missing an important element of the math in that KK hand facing a turn jam. Until the River, you need to consider not just how many combinations you are ahead of or behind, but also your EQUITY against that range.
like how you break down pot odds. as for the hand itself: given your aggressive line I really doubt he has as many bluffs if any. Also some of the hands like AQ and TT i would assume 3bet preflop so his range is actually capped.
I also don't like your big turn bet after one of the more likely straight draws get in . As you point out later he has all of the Jx hands and also 9T wich all line up with his preflop and flop play. So a large percentage of his range either got you outflopped or outturned. arguing "Giving I still beat AQ, i assume to have the best hand" is not a good way to look at it.
having said that I subscribed and like to find a new vlog. always interested in how other people play and think. keep up the good work.
You can actually bet more on the river with your nut flush when top pair doesn’t change. A good heuristic is to value bet small(er) when top pair changes on the river. and bet larger when top pair doesn’t change since low stakes players are sticky with top pair
Just found your channel and subbed. Gonna follow your poker journey. Cheers from The Netherlands
Thanks!
Tough love incoming. I promise this is coming from a well-intentioned place. I'm speaking from experience here as a math guy who overestimated his abilities early on.
Your math background will help you only if you're willing to study. Otherwise it's going to get you crushed, because you will be confidently incorrect very often, and you'll spend way more time on the nasty part of the Dunning-Kruger curve than you need to.
Some notes:
- Your thought process about the pot odds of calling off with KK makes sense if the bet had come on the river. But because there's still one more card to come, you don't "beat" bluffs, you simply have equity against them. Understanding the equity a bluffing range has against your hand is essential to assessing pot odds.
- In theory, you should always open any suited ace from any position. The goal of a poker strategy isn't to always win the hand, it's to try to make your decisions as easy as possible and your opponent's decisions as difficult as possible. If you get re-raised, that's an easy fold. Suited aces play themselves and have tremendous implied odds if you play them well.
- "I'm not entirely sure if a raise would be in order given that 89 would be a straight" - you're playing passively because you're worried about the 4 combinations of the nuts. This makes no sense. The point of a (semi-)bluff is not to fold out the nuts, it's to fold out marginal hands that are better than yours.
If you want to learn, I'd recommend reading Applications of No Limit Holdem by Matthew Janda. Game-theory optimal strategy isn't something you want to play at live tables, but you need to understand theoretically perfect play in order to be able to identify and exploit deviations from it, otherwise even breakeven 2-5 regs are going to eat you for lunch once they've played a few thousand hands with you.
Good luck, homie. You seem like a good dude.
He has about as much equity against the hands that are beating him (besides JJ) as the bluffs that aren't drawing dead do against him, so it's basically irrelevant.
@@Jermo484 Oh no the equity still comes out to around 36%, but treating flop/turn bluffs the same way you treat zero-equity bluffs is gonna get you in trouble
@@gramscii sure, but I think it's more likely he was simplying slightly. It's a live situation. No one should be taking the time at a low stakes live game to completely calculate the equity of a villain's entire range. It's a spot where obviously you're live against basically everything and most things are live against you, but that's a small piece of the overall equity.
@@Jermo484 Of course you shouldn't be doing this live in every spot. He's doing it on a "chalkboard" and in retrospect. And maybe he's just simplifying, but it's a tad generous to give him the benefit of the doubt here. I mean, the previous KK hand he turned KK into a bluff as soon as the flop came ace high, and his reasoning is... very not good. The guy is clicking buttons and he thinks he knows what he's doing. It's a recipe for disaster. A touch of humility and a month of study and this guy could be a winning player at 1/3 live, but that can't happen while he still thinks he's decent
@@gramscii continuing on an ace high board after 4 betting is absurdly standard.
Good luck. You should talk about the math on each hand that you play since you are a Math Professor. That is what sets you apart from most of the poker vloggers out there. Just a thought.
Was intrigued by the title but after three hands I might have to give up. I think what can differentiate you from the large number of other poker vlogs is your math background. I’d love to hear voice over that discusses and explains the math of decision making. Absent that, I think you fall through the cracks of same old same old. Good luck finding your voice and style.
You got to math. Yay
The math in poker is simple probabilities. Aka division. Its not interesting.
Subscribed just to support a rookie vlogger. Get er done.
11:00 You write that you need to find approximately one hand you beat for every three you lose to, then you write that you need to find 14 bluffs for the 56 value hands that Villain could have. That's a ratio of 1:4, not 1:3. Or maybe I failed at the math. 😀
short n sweet, keep it up
Subbed! I know these are hard to do but the chalkboard math section will help me a ton. I’d rather a couple of hands in a video if they had that kind of analysis!
2:40 lol starting your poker vlog trying to introduce the concept of a PLO Double board bomb pot 😂
Lucky most your viewers are degen poker addicts I guess who can follow 😊
following to watch your career go to new heights
great start to the vlog. upgrade your audio as soon as possible. it will improve the quality of your videos drastically. here for the journey.
Had a little hiccup with the audio settings - should be fixed for Episode 2!
Great vlog Professor! Given that you are you math professor, I'm actually surprised that you didn't break down the time that you played and how much you made/loss per hour. Also something to consider, the actual time and date you start, and in what casino did you play. Having the undergrad in statistics I really like the breakdown of pot odds! That was really great solid vlog! Let me know when you're in the NC area. Have a ton of games all week-long. J Dub
Thanks! Those are some good recommendations. I will incorporate what I can for Episode 2 - stay tuned!
On your last hand, IMO, you should have raised after the villain's beer in the turn. You took a huge risk allowing him(?) to catch the river card... Imagine he had 10c Xo... You'd have lost had the river been a club. All in, and force him out.
Great vlog.
Hey man where are you playing?
You can very often look to discount preflop non premiums. Sometimes I’m wrong, but I am discounting J8 and J9 on the preflop range, for instance, on the KK hand.
What does the player play, usually? Because to me, this looks like AK, AQ, AJ, QQ. Maaaybe AT.
Wow. T9. The guy plays loose.
Ideally, you eliminate holdings like that by a major raise pre-flop .
Nice first vid. I live in Omaha NE, if your planning on playing at the casino unfortunately they don't allow filming. I'd invite you to a home game, but the stakes are probably too small for your liking lol
Unless I’m taking crazy pills here, your poker math was wrong.
You need to win 22% of the time. Totally fine with that. The percentage view is the way I usually look at pot odds as well, so no issues. You then mention that if you round to 25%, you can also view that as the 1:3 or 3:1 ratio depending on how you want to say it, i.e., you need to beat 1 hand for every 3 hands that beat you. Still good: these are just different ways of saying the same thing. But you have to be careful switching back and forth between these two viewpoints, which I think is where you erred.
When counting combos, you divided the number of combos you beat by the number of combos that beat you, and you said this has to be more than 22% (or 25% if you’re rounding). But in fact, it would have to be more than 1/3 because you’re looking at the ratio of wins to losses, i.e., you’re working with the 1:3 viewpoint here. What you *should* be doing if you’re viewing your pot odds as 25% is counting the number of combos you win out of the total, i.e., 20/76 or 26%. This is a little more than the 22% you need, so calling would be fine if you ranged villain correctly, but it’s not a slam dunk.
I also think you’re ranging your opponent incorrectly for this sort of situation. I would be very surprised to see villain show up with TT or 99 here - these hands hardly ever bluff at low stakes. I also don’t see people bluff that much on paired broadway boards like this, so I would be a bit surprised to see AT and KT as well unless it’s specifically clubs. That said, I do expect villain to show up with some random spazzes as well as KQ, QT, Q9, 8T and 89 with some frequency.
You’re right! Thanks for the feedback!
I should also mention that I was thinking TT and 99 were actually the most likely bluffing bluffing hands since they block the straight on this board. Perhaps trying to bluff me off a J? But it’s interesting that you and someone else that commented with detailed feedback both said similar things about the opponent having TT and 99 here. Thanks for your input!
Funny, I actually put him on 10-9, the only real logical hand he could have shoved on the turn with. There is no bluffing in this position for him, put your outs are too high to fold.
I actually look at it differently. I say, " what percentage is my out if I am beat?" I still have 3 8's, 3 Q's, and 2 K's. which is about 17 percent.
8 or Q will not beat a straight
Hey, great video, I just subscribed!! It would be amazing if you could make videos regarding the maths behind poker and how to calculate EV and Pot odds, again, great video!!!
Thanks! Will do!
good start!
good video man, keep it up
That Jack on the river proves that you can decipher poker with math all that you want, but you can’t decipher LUCK!
great commentary ty
Subbed and liked. As another teacher (English though) who plays and enjoys the subtleties poker has to offer, I'm digging the pedagogical approach! Good luck! :)
After finishing, I also had this thought: another interesting spot to run some numbers for future episodes might be that 33 hand. When you arrive on the river having barrelled 2 streets, what ranges of hands specifically is he likely to have there? Given the hands that would fold to a pot-size bet, versus the hands that would not, does it make sense to put in that last barrel? Generally, one can use 1:1 as risk/reward as you're likely to make a pot-size bet, but it would actually be lower if you think he'd fold (x) hands regardless if sizing is 3/4 or even half when considering the player type. My experience is that many players would see strength with a half sizing at those levels.
Glad to hear from a fellow teacher :) Awesome - I'll keep this in mind 👍🏽
12:40 you question whether or not your $150 bet was good or not. I think that is 100% the correct play in that situation. (writing all of this before seeing how the hand plays out)
You want to charge the flush draw. So you need to bet high enough that anyone holding any flush draw not containing the A to be uncomfortable. In this spot it’s even better for you because you have the Kc giving you the blocker to the 2nd nuts. Which further reduces combos of flush draws out there. This is even better for you since the Qc is accounted for. Meaning at best they have AXc, JXc, or worse. If JXc or worse then they will have to worry about their flush draw being beat by alot of combos of higher flushes and you can account for one of them, which is knowledge your opponent is unaware of. If the Ac comes on the river, you have a great spot to turn your hand into a bluff. Anyone sitting there with anything below JXc is going to be in a tough spot because your story looks like KXc when you lead preflop and bet on the turn. If they don’t have the Jc but instead something like T9c, they are going to be sick.
The shove by the Villian in this case would seem like 1 of 2 cases. Either A. On a flush draw and hoping that they can take the pot down without needing to have the river to help. Or B. Has trips and wanting to push a lower flush off by attempting to rep a better flush draw forcing the fold. The unfortunate part about the second case is it’s entirely possible the villian has JXc and is on a combo draw with Trips currently. In that spot, they are well ahead with trips but the flush draw while improving their hand also opens them up to losing to all the combos so QXc+ which ultimately puts them in a tough spot if they make it to the river. If the villain makes it to the river with JXc without the shove and a club comes out, followed by a jam or another large bet from you, that’s going to be a rough spot for them. It’s much more in their interest to shove now with JX.
So I think you played it correct with the $150 bet because hands not containing a J or AXc are likely to move out of the way. However, I think calling there even with pot odds is a difficult decision. You need a live read there. If they are bad it’s likely trips and you’re looking for 2 outs. If they are good, a bluff with AXc is likely.
Pot odds are great, but sometimes you gotta know who you’re playing against also.
(After seeing result)
The shove with 10c9h is a questionable one by sure. Definitely not a super strong player. Especially since he seemed excited with 1 card still to come and lots of club still out there that beat you. With the early position raise preflop I personally wouldn’t be in the hand with 109o so I would’ve absolutely kept that in mind for the future. Im sure In his head he was thinking with the 10c accounted if the flush comes the only likely combos that beat me are AKc, AJc, KJc, or The combos of AXs, KXs, and JXs. Since it’s unlikely anyone has worse than a 10 high flush and is calling. So he wants to do exactly what I said by charging the draw. The only hands he is really targeting there is JXo or hoping the river is a brick and you get paid by a bad player who can get away from trips. I think in that situation he should’ve flat called. Since then if the flush hits you can run if needed, and if it bricks you have a very very hidden straight.
Nevertheless, I do think he put you in a rough spot since you’re holding none of the hands he is really targeting and he has you specifically crushed. Good hero call, pot odds helped you in this situation absolutely, and now with the player information in mind, next time you do the calculation you need to include some questionable holdings as well, which likely gives you more equity.
19:20 Don’t open pocket 3s from UTG. You should be REALLY tight UTG unless playing with people you have an edge on. And ESPECIALLY do not call a raise with 33. Unless you are in a tournament or something where you pray you’re flipping against AK.. it’s a bad play. If you’re late position you can absolutely open 33 and maybe call a BB squeeze with them, but other than that you should be folding them to UTG or to a raise 99% of the time
Thanks for the in-depth analysis!
Correct call & got lucky. Sweet
Subscriber #287 checking in. Love your analysis, good work
Thanks!
FYI if you ever start playing PLO 10-7-6-3 isn’t a good hand, even if it’s double suited
Thanks 😆 - I have no idea what I’m doing in PLO
@@Professor_Poker it’s a great game to play once you figure it out, good luck 🍀
I WANT MORE CONTENT. PLEASE!!!!!
Former math degenerate here, I love poker
The second KK hand was butchered in every possible way if you have any understanding game theory optimal. Flop sizing is horrendous and filters out the weak holding that would normally should continue vs a normal 1/3 pot sized bet. That means a lot of the combos you assign to villain as bluffs on the turn should not exist at all. Calling AT 3/4 pot on the flop with a player behind seems extremely unlikely. Also after bombing the turn yourself you filter even more your opponents range. Essentially he doesn't have any folding equity given the pot odds so their bluffs are almost non existent. So if they are completely bad they could have AQ and shove but I even doubt that. So in my opinion for your calculations on your turn equity you should only consider his jx and 9t combos and calculate If you are getting the right price to suck out...
GTO in a 2/3 game is almost completely useless.
Agreed, flop sizing is very bad either want to check back or go 1/4 or less pot, IMO after the flop bet, turn should have been checked back holding k of clubs to bluff catch river, the flop bet pretty much folds out everything he would get value from on the turn, also blocks k10. (queen can probably comfortably fold turn vs big bet as played) and he's only really owning himself vs a jack after the turn bet.
@@ClubGGRetrac Yeah he doesn't understand GTO. The only shove on the turn was a 10-9, or AJ, but more likely a mad str8. 1/4 bet on the flop would have done it's job, not need for such a huge bet.
Which other content creators do you follow? Curious.
Dope Video!!
I feel like at 7:14 that was a very risky 80 dollar raise. You’re targeting QQ but I feel like a lot of the time you’re going against AA, AK, or JJs, all of which have you crushed. It went your way this time but I’m not too sure that’s a positive EV play considering the pre flop action
Good luck on ur adventures! Thought about doing this as well since I am new to the game as well. What do u use to film at the table?
Just my iphone!
Brother I know you’re new to poker but you’re spreading some DANGEROUS logic on here 😅.
I would LOVE to play at table with you especially if it’s strictly a bomb pot table 😂
Yeah, I wouldn’t survive at a bomb pot only table 😂
Follow your journey
Where are the stats? VPIP, # hands played post flop, etc. We need tables of cold, hard data for download and dashboarding.
Honestly good idea…I’ll see what I can do 😂 it’s hard capturing these hands live, not slow down the game, and also think about what might be the best play!
Yea, thought we'd actually see the numbers, when it said math professor
Please keep a lifetime running total (at least for the games you vlog) at the end of future videos. And maybe include hours played. So many poker vlogs make it look like easy money, concentrating on the wins, diminishing the losses, including lost hours.
A vlog lifetime $/hour to flow would be super unique and interesting.
Look out for this in Episode 2 😎
Well done 🤙
Great vid, dunno if its just me but the audio is a little off. Looking forward to the next.
Nope, not you - video 2 is out and the audio issue has been fixed!
Cool - thanks! Excited to watch it.
Can you also show hands you folded after going to a flop
You’re awesome dude
Nice start PP * 😎UK here 😜
Board texture dictates your reading hand
Subscribed - rooting for you and excited for the next one!
Also - shouldn't you use 20/(20+56) = 26.3% to justify your call in the KK hand? (Not to mention your outs if you're behind, which is also relevant 😜)
Ya. Lol . 20 / 76 ….