@@Mandolin1944 Yeah, and sure, the national lead doesn't matter much since we have the electoral college, but it's historically pretty consistent that Democrats always win the college if they have a certain amount of points in the national lead.
@@HallimarRathlornStudios Yes I am aware of Silver's model and it claims that an R victory is highly probable in the electoral college (EC) if they win or hold the popular vote (PV) to within a point. The Ds need a PV margin of 3-4% for the same outcome. What is the basis for that claim that Harris is already 2.9 million votes ahead -- seems like you pulled it out of the air? In 2020 there were approx. 156 million votes cast so even if there are say 5% more votes in 2024 than the PV would be 163 million total. According to most of the best opinion polling the PV is tied. To be 2.9 million votes ahead Harris would have to be polling 2 to 3% ahead also and no one shows that? Except you? Also you need to factor in that Trump over performs his polls consistently. That may vary this year because more R are voting early.
Yeah, based on the adjusted polls, Florida is only 4.9 points to the right (in 2020, it was 3.0 points to the right). Provided the 5-point margin of error, that means that it's not 100% toward the right, even now. And because it's not 100% toward the right, that means that it is, with some small chance, to the left.
Did you forget abortion and reproductive rights are on the ballot in FL and women are fuming mad? Roevember. Only a stupid woman would vote red after Republicans made women slaves (again). And a rapist is at the top of their ticket.
@@dra32411 If you watch the video, you may recall the adjusted polling margin, which brings it down to 4.9, which gives Harris something like less than 1% chance of winning the state. I laid out that final scenario for goofs and gaffs and I feel as though viewers are thinking it's legitimate outcome. It's not.
14:47 I meant to say that I'm opposed to the idea that the election WON'T be a landslide.
bro is alive, yet no snow piecrer 4 talk :C
Real Kieron is charging people for tickets and not giving them their group upgrade. People who spoke out can no longer post on group walls.
Will you make more videos about Snowpiercer?
First view and comment. Anyways this is gonna be an interesting watch
It is amazing that Nate Silver is not as smart as you and does not realize that Harris is leading by 2.9 million votes.
@@Mandolin1944 Yeah, and sure, the national lead doesn't matter much since we have the electoral college, but it's historically pretty consistent that Democrats always win the college if they have a certain amount of points in the national lead.
@@HallimarRathlornStudios Yes I am aware of Silver's model and it claims that an R victory is highly probable in the electoral college (EC) if they win or hold the popular vote (PV) to within a point. The Ds need a PV margin of 3-4% for the same outcome. What is the basis for that claim that Harris is already 2.9 million votes ahead -- seems like you pulled it out of the air? In 2020 there were approx. 156 million votes cast so even if there are say 5% more votes in 2024 than the PV would be 163 million total. According to most of the best opinion polling the PV is tied. To be 2.9 million votes ahead Harris would have to be polling 2 to 3% ahead also and no one shows that? Except you? Also you need to factor in that Trump over performs his polls consistently. That may vary this year because more R are voting early.
Do you think President Trump would be in support of CW-7?
No. His official position is that climate change is hoax.
yap
yeah thats not even close to right
Someone didn't like the prediction
@@emiplayz7603 Someone didn't like the results
FL blue????😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Yeah, based on the adjusted polls, Florida is only 4.9 points to the right (in 2020, it was 3.0 points to the right). Provided the 5-point margin of error, that means that it's not 100% toward the right, even now. And because it's not 100% toward the right, that means that it is, with some small chance, to the left.
Did you forget abortion and reproductive rights are on the ballot in FL and women are fuming mad? Roevember. Only a stupid woman would vote red after Republicans made women slaves (again). And a rapist is at the top of their ticket.
@@HallimarRathlornStudios Dude, Trump is leading by 7% in Florida... He's highest margin yet, Florida is nowhere close to being blue .
@@dra32411 If you watch the video, you may recall the adjusted polling margin, which brings it down to 4.9, which gives Harris something like less than 1% chance of winning the state. I laid out that final scenario for goofs and gaffs and I feel as though viewers are thinking it's legitimate outcome. It's not.