This episode is sponsored by YCharts. Check out the Debunking Investing Myths Deck at: go.ycharts.com/debunking-investing-myths?Animal_Spirits&Original_Research&Debunking_Investing_Myths&Podcast%20
5:08 Thank you. People saying that they will gladly pay more for an American made product are the same ones that get upset when service workers (McDonalds, Walmart, etc) are paid slightly more than minimum wage. Tariffs may have worked well for us in the 1800s and early 1900s, but we're not the manufacturing powerhouse we once were.
7:48 whoa there! Not 90% of our fresh vegetables come from Canada & Mexico. 90% of our *imported* fresh vegetables come from Canada and Mexico. We grow a lot of vegetables here too. And berries!
I'm confused because I'm in canada and there are many fruits and veg from US California in the groceries. Straberries, brocoli, etc. I guess everybody import and export like crazy.
Work for a US manufacturing company in Canada and we had multiple orders cancelled today (Us Customers) . The trade war isnt over, even just the uncertainty is going to cause havoc.
The unfortunate part is that Canada and Mexico will turn to other countries for partnerships. This is akin to threatening your neighbor for no reason and expecting no consequences.
Canada didnt bend. This is what makes me think the trade war isnt over. I hope the market called his hand. While Trump said Canada had agreed to take a more aggressive posture on its U.S. border in exchange for a suspension of tariffs, Canada’s parliament had already passed a new border security and drug interdiction bill in December.
Isn’t it funny how things can get so twisted around I mean he didn’t make anybody do anything that they already didn’t agree to and here’s the icing on the cake they’ve already started taking American goods off the shelves in stores in Canada so basically totally just screwed anybody that sold their products and imported them excuse me exported them to Canada🤷♂️🤣🤣🤣🤣
A lot of tap dancing going on in this episode. Really seems like you guys are almost to the point of calling trump out on his economic idiocy, but aren’t quite comfortable going all the way in yet. This shit is not good for consumers, business owners large and small, and the greater economy. I understand there’s an audience to appease, but this is an important time and you guys have an influential voice in this space. Keep doing what you’re doing and speak up to what you believe in.
One thing about the idea of using tariffs to get concesssion from your "allies": you drive them away because they no longer see you as trustworthy. They'll want less trade with you. They'll see you as less reliable as a military partner (or in the case of Canada: they now see the US as a military threat.) Trade agreements and security deals with the USA are inherently less valuable. Even if the tariffs never go through you create longer-term harm.
So their existing tariffs on our goods are...? People aren't thinking it through based on actual facts and Trump knows how dumb people are so he stopped trying to explain it publicly.
Totally agree. You wanna make deals? Don’t stiff your workers’ wages, or your bill for your stadium where you held your Nazi rally. You wanna do business, you need reliability and trust - none of which the US will ever have at this rate. Previous commenter: lol, your stable genius is so stable he won’t explain it to the public 😂
Ben’s promise to do wall streets version of the notebook when Michael’s memory gives out for good is the best thing in the whole show 😂. You guys are so funny.
Ben - get your children into as many activities while they’re young, especially in winter. As they grow, they can choose what they love and stick with. It’s much easier for kids to acquire these skills when their head is still relatively close to the ground.
18:58 side point in government running like a business, at least for the local level. If we use the analogy that a mayor is a CEO (executive branch) and city council is a governing board (legislative branch), You can call your council member and complain about trash in the park or your bill and someone will take action. Try getting that level of customer service with your health insurer, cable company, or wireless provider.
When it comes to tariffs, it's all bluster until it isn't. So many people talk past Trump's serious judgment issues / voted for him because they believe there are guardrails in place to counter his worst impulses. Unfortunately, the more I see, the more I think something will break over the next 4 years.
The New Yorker’s cover sometime last fall has a SCOTUS “photo” with 6 identical faces of Tramp, and 3 remaining justices. That’s the guardrail that’s permanently gone.
I was hoping he’d just play golf and watch TV like he did last term. He literally doesn’t need to do anything and just ride the good economy/stock market then ride off into the sunset. But knowing Trump, he will find a way to screw it up. He always does.
Michael, did you catch the line at the end of Goodrich when Michael Keaton says "I'm your grandad", and it's a throwback to "I'm Batman"? I've read many reviews and nobody mentions this. Am I seeing too much meaning in that line?
Our 40 year old remodeled house has needs so much work from plumbing to foundation. I do not recommend buying an older house even if it saves you some money on the purchase price
Modelo is AB InBev which is Anheuser Busch, and they decided to share their manufacturing across North America because since the 1990's, there was a free trade agreement. Imposing tariffs just makes things harder for the biggest beer company in the World and one of the most iconic US brands. That's definitely not business-friendly.
When Ben was talking about how the lost decade skewed the long term returns, and how today they have recovered to 10% - What is interesting to me as well is that you usually see these averages start in 1928, why not a different year? 1928 was basically the top, right before the biggest drop we’ve ever seen. I wonder what the annualized returns would be if you did, say 1932-2025? Or, what if you started the backtest in 1929 at the peak, and ended the test in march of 2009, or in march of 2020, at the lows?
Re: Tariffs - eh, idk if you can say the "border stuff" is outside the scope of the show but then say with pretty strong conviction that the tariff announcements were idiodic. Kinda have to present the full picture imo, whether it be high-level or in detail. Of course the tariffs unilaterally will increase prices to some degree, but the whole point of them is to reduce drug overdoses, child sex trafficking, terrorists on U.S. soil, and reshore jobs, and many people will disagree and say that the benefits actually are worth the costs (which ended up being zero). But I get you don't want to get too deep into hyper-sensitive or political issues, in which case I would still present the full picture but keep it high-level but just with a more factual than emotional approach👍
Policies do not equal action which is why tariffs were only paused. Canada doesn't even have their parliament in session to pay for any of their border policies
Actually $1.3B CAD was added to Canada’s budget for increased border security because of Trump’s calls on the issue. (So like $1.3M in USD at this point.)
The outrage of the CFP putting his kids entire education fund in Bitcoin is magnified 10x by the fact he’s a CFP. From a CFP perspective this has to be the wildest decision ever. This is like a priest who loves the blazing 7s.
One might say that I'm a wild guy. However, it'd be a good idea to understand the full context to which I came to the allocation (savings rate, future free cash flows, other assets, reduced benefits of 529 in Texas, don't want kids' money locked in 529 plan). Sorry for the outrage.
@JimCrider So crazy, it just might work haha. The outrage was for dramatic comedic effect more than anything. I’m not going to sit here and pretend to tell you what is or is not right for your investment dollars. You know your circumstance and your tolerance and you have the knowledge to make an informed decision. I just appreciated the absurdity of the situation on its face because it is so counter to convential financial planning wisdom and compliance would have your balls cryogenically frozen and mounted on their wall if you ever advised a client to do it.
All the desirable things I want (house, meat, advanced education) significantly outpace the CPI inflation number. That number is irrelevant to me, personally.
Not all tariff costs are passed to the consumer in the importing country. The dollar strengthening and the importing companies absorbing some of the costs might mean the US consumer doesn't bear the full tariffs costs.
You want to wait and see what an unelected person putting a team of sub-25 year olds in positions of control is going to look like? Awful, awful take, Mike. That situation isn't normal, dude!
The Bitcoin "zero risk" ETFs are intriguing. But the call debit spread that he describes has only a 36% Probability of profit according to delta, which admittedly isn't exact. So 2/3 of the time you'll break even.
Great stuff, guys! Michael, no need to hedge - unelected oligarch getting access to the entire government’s payment system sounds like Russia. Oh wait, that’s right. This is basically Russia now.
“Access” to a system could mean a lot of different things, including just “read” access or the ability to run a report. It doesn’t mean DOGE can start changing data.
True, still not sure I am okay with a random bunch of kids, rifling through data that may be protected PIN or HIPPA information. We get all bent out of shape about surveillance systems and we have opened systems to people, no matter how smart or pedigreed, that seem to have no ethos. At least according to reporting. I am as about ok with this as I am with data breach on any data that may include my name.
Agree with previous commenter. Rando bros with literally no civil service experience or, frankly, any intent to serve the public? Hell nah, go back to your basements to trade shitcoins.
Yeoman's Work -- is an idiom that refers to difficult, valuable, and successful work, especially when it's done to help a cause or team... For example, you might describe someone's fundraising efforts as "yeoman's work." 😏😉
@@seangrealish8741I’d probably try throwing in my car loan and credit cards and other debt. I mean, why should any of us be responsible for our financial obligations that we willingly entered into?
Again, there is no such thing as FREE MARKETS. Those agreements are what you can and can't export to each country. And they agree to low tariffs on many goods but ban others or put higher tariffs on many items. Trump loves tariffs because USA always wins that battle. Most all countries are dependent on trade, USA isn't so we win that battle. Trump only want reciprocal trade. He has said this many times and nobody seems to listen to his words.
I’m trying to figure out who Bett at the knee because every tariff that he put out there has been canceled for 30 days why well one reason I could tell you is Canada has already started taking all of its American goods off the shelves as of yesterday they didn’t wait 30 days
I feel like it’s referring to the stock market in general. My wife is scared to invest in the stock market because of the volatility. To which I replied, so let’s just stick to SPY, DIA and QQQM. Because they “always” go up😅🤷♂️
18:58 side point in government running like a business, at least for the local level. If we use the analogy that a mayor is a CEO (executive branch) and city council is a governing board (legislative branch), You can call your council member and complain about trash in the park or your bill and someone will take action. Try getting that level of customer service with your health insurer, cable company, or wireless provider.
This episode is sponsored by YCharts. Check out the Debunking Investing Myths Deck at: go.ycharts.com/debunking-investing-myths?Animal_Spirits&Original_Research&Debunking_Investing_Myths&Podcast%20
5:08 Thank you. People saying that they will gladly pay more for an American made product are the same ones that get upset when service workers (McDonalds, Walmart, etc) are paid slightly more than minimum wage. Tariffs may have worked well for us in the 1800s and early 1900s, but we're not the manufacturing powerhouse we once were.
Exactly. In the end, it is the poor that wind up paying the price the most. Once again, Trump cares very little about what is best for all Americans.
7:48 whoa there! Not 90% of our fresh vegetables come from Canada & Mexico. 90% of our *imported* fresh vegetables come from Canada and Mexico. We grow a lot of vegetables here too. And berries!
I'm confused because I'm in canada and there are many fruits and veg from US California in the groceries. Straberries, brocoli, etc. I guess everybody import and export like crazy.
Yup, that was disappointing that Ben and Michael kept misinterpreting this.
Vanguard is the best thing that ever happened to individual investors. True facts Ben
Michael's housing strategy is to start with the mudroom, then build the house around that.
Work for a US manufacturing company in Canada and we had multiple orders cancelled today (Us Customers) . The trade war isnt over, even just the uncertainty is going to cause havoc.
The unfortunate part is that Canada and Mexico will turn to other countries for partnerships. This is akin to threatening your neighbor for no reason and expecting no consequences.
Canada didnt bend. This is what makes me think the trade war isnt over. I hope the market called his hand.
While Trump said Canada had agreed to take a more aggressive posture on its U.S. border in exchange for a suspension of tariffs, Canada’s parliament had already passed a new border security and drug interdiction bill in December.
MAGA has all of social media bro
Isn’t it funny how things can get so twisted around I mean he didn’t make anybody do anything that they already didn’t agree to and here’s the icing on the cake they’ve already started taking American goods off the shelves in stores in Canada so basically totally just screwed anybody that sold their products and imported them excuse me exported them to Canada🤷♂️🤣🤣🤣🤣
Best thing about my childhood was we were a skiing family. Thank you dad! Come on Ben, give your kids that gift!
No way does 80 percent of our beer come from Mexico
Pretty sure those charts were saying the percent of imports, not the percent of total consumption.
A lot of tap dancing going on in this episode. Really seems like you guys are almost to the point of calling trump out on his economic idiocy, but aren’t quite comfortable going all the way in yet. This shit is not good for consumers, business owners large and small, and the greater economy. I understand there’s an audience to appease, but this is an important time and you guys have an influential voice in this space. Keep doing what you’re doing and speak up to what you believe in.
You two are a highlight of every week. Thank you for the continued shows.
One thing about the idea of using tariffs to get concesssion from your "allies": you drive them away because they no longer see you as trustworthy. They'll want less trade with you. They'll see you as less reliable as a military partner (or in the case of Canada: they now see the US as a military threat.) Trade agreements and security deals with the USA are inherently less valuable. Even if the tariffs never go through you create longer-term harm.
So their existing tariffs on our goods are...? People aren't thinking it through based on actual facts and Trump knows how dumb people are so he stopped trying to explain it publicly.
Totally agree. You wanna make deals? Don’t stiff your workers’ wages, or your bill for your stadium where you held your Nazi rally. You wanna do business, you need reliability and trust - none of which the US will ever have at this rate.
Previous commenter: lol, your stable genius is so stable he won’t explain it to the public 😂
100%
On working from home, I laughed out loud when Michael said "sweet nectar" 😄
Lol Micheal responds to 80% of Ben's ideas with, "I don't hate it."
Ben’s promise to do wall streets version of the notebook when Michael’s memory gives out for good is the best thing in the whole show 😂. You guys are so funny.
The “concession” from Mexico to send some troops to the border happened while Biden was president already and no trade war was needed.
that was anticlimactic.... haha. Batnick is the GOAT
Ben - get your children into as many activities while they’re young, especially in winter. As they grow, they can choose what they love and stick with. It’s much easier for kids to acquire these skills when their head is still relatively close to the ground.
18:58 side point in government running like a business, at least for the local level. If we use the analogy that a mayor is a CEO (executive branch) and city council is a governing board (legislative branch), You can call your council member and complain about trash in the park or your bill and someone will take action.
Try getting that level of customer service with your health insurer, cable company, or wireless provider.
GREAT show. you guys are one of my absoluute favorite podcasts.
When it comes to tariffs, it's all bluster until it isn't. So many people talk past Trump's serious judgment issues / voted for him because they believe there are guardrails in place to counter his worst impulses. Unfortunately, the more I see, the more I think something will break over the next 4 years.
The New Yorker’s cover sometime last fall has a SCOTUS “photo” with 6 identical faces of Tramp, and 3 remaining justices. That’s the guardrail that’s permanently gone.
I was hoping he’d just play golf and watch TV like he did last term. He literally doesn’t need to do anything and just ride the good economy/stock market then ride off into the sunset. But knowing Trump, he will find a way to screw it up. He always does.
Are we finally getting the Dean of Wall Street as a Compound Guest? 🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻
With a 25% tarriff, USA and Canadian auto industry would shut down within 7 days...on both sides of border.
Gonna need a tshirt with "I stand with Ben" on it and maybe a picture of some skis or something.
Michael, did you catch the line at the end of Goodrich when Michael Keaton says "I'm your grandad", and it's a throwback to "I'm Batman"? I've read many reviews and nobody mentions this. Am I seeing too much meaning in that line?
Starting with an assumption Trump's IQ is higher than 80, probably leads to spurious outputs.
To stop your kids from skiiing, just give them beer since that worked for you.
Our 40 year old remodeled house has needs so much work from plumbing to foundation.
I do not recommend buying an older house even if it saves you some money on the purchase price
Michael you actually should have a chat with Jim Crider he is totally a level headed bitcoiner/financial advisor!
Thanks, Michael.
I literally also forgot I have one of those air compressors from Amazon
Modelo is AB InBev which is Anheuser Busch, and they decided to share their manufacturing across North America because since the 1990's, there was a free trade agreement. Imposing tariffs just makes things harder for the biggest beer company in the World and one of the most iconic US brands. That's definitely not business-friendly.
Disgusting behaviour from those raptors fans, also most of the players are American, that's not gonna help the damn team
When Ben was talking about how the lost decade skewed the long term returns, and how today they have recovered to 10% - What is interesting to me as well is that you usually see these averages start in 1928, why not a different year? 1928 was basically the top, right before the biggest drop we’ve ever seen. I wonder what the annualized returns would be if you did, say 1932-2025? Or, what if you started the backtest in 1929 at the peak, and ended the test in march of 2009, or in march of 2020, at the lows?
1st rule of thumb when it comes to contractors? CASH IS KING. ALWAYS Ask what the cash price is after the initial bid.
Re: Tariffs - eh, idk if you can say the "border stuff" is outside the scope of the show but then say with pretty strong conviction that the tariff announcements were idiodic. Kinda have to present the full picture imo, whether it be high-level or in detail. Of course the tariffs unilaterally will increase prices to some degree, but the whole point of them is to reduce drug overdoses, child sex trafficking, terrorists on U.S. soil, and reshore jobs, and many people will disagree and say that the benefits actually are worth the costs (which ended up being zero). But I get you don't want to get too deep into hyper-sensitive or political issues, in which case I would still present the full picture but keep it high-level but just with a more factual than emotional approach👍
There were no concessions from Canada and Mexico. They reannounced policies that they had laid out last year.
Policies do not equal action which is why tariffs were only paused. Canada doesn't even have their parliament in session to pay for any of their border policies
Actually $1.3B CAD was added to Canada’s budget for increased border security because of Trump’s calls on the issue. (So like $1.3M in USD at this point.)
@ False. Nothing was added to the budget because Trudeau has shut down parliament. There's a reason why the tariffs were only paused
Nifty Fifty will never go down.
Ben, get a handful of bids and then choose the person in the middle that feels right. Trust your gut.
Is the levered ETF chart that shows income and gains a chart crime? Is that net income and gains or are they just counting the gains?
The outrage of the CFP putting his kids entire education fund in Bitcoin is magnified 10x by the fact he’s a CFP. From a CFP perspective this has to be the wildest decision ever. This is like a priest who loves the blazing 7s.
One might say that I'm a wild guy. However, it'd be a good idea to understand the full context to which I came to the allocation (savings rate, future free cash flows, other assets, reduced benefits of 529 in Texas, don't want kids' money locked in 529 plan). Sorry for the outrage.
@JimCrider So crazy, it just might work haha. The outrage was for dramatic comedic effect more than anything. I’m not going to sit here and pretend to tell you what is or is not right for your investment dollars. You know your circumstance and your tolerance and you have the knowledge to make an informed decision. I just appreciated the absurdity of the situation on its face because it is so counter to convential financial planning wisdom and compliance would have your balls cryogenically frozen and mounted on their wall if you ever advised a client to do it.
All the desirable things I want (house, meat, advanced education) significantly outpace the CPI inflation number. That number is irrelevant to me, personally.
Ben is a man of the people!
What are tariffs?
-Kamala Harris
After all these yrs Michael never noticed your bobble head?
More than enough lumber in the PNW, some of these tariffs make sense
Not all tariff costs are passed to the consumer in the importing country. The dollar strengthening and the importing companies absorbing some of the costs might mean the US consumer doesn't bear the full tariffs costs.
Unfortunately we end up paying most of it as other countries also turn up to dial and make other treaties without us in it.
The cost of rennovations is going to go up even higher once the immigrant labor is gone. Ben may be more right than he realizes 🤔
You want to wait and see what an unelected person putting a team of sub-25 year olds in positions of control is going to look like? Awful, awful take, Mike. That situation isn't normal, dude!
Do you think the markets were waiting for Trump to meet with the leaders of Mexico and Canada to react?
Yes! Another Ben 'airpocket' episode! 12:11
The Bitcoin "zero risk" ETFs are intriguing. But the call debit spread that he describes has only a 36% Probability of profit according to delta, which admittedly isn't exact. So 2/3 of the time you'll break even.
...in other words, only 1/3 of the time will the investor make money, but sometimes it will be significant.
I have a private chef. She is also my wife. 😂
When did Michael join the Cobra Kai?
Bitcoin can do it all!! inflation, tariff and recession hedge
Great stuff, guys! Michael, no need to hedge - unelected oligarch getting access to the entire government’s payment system sounds like Russia.
Oh wait, that’s right. This is basically Russia now.
“Access” to a system could mean a lot of different things, including just “read” access or the ability to run a report. It doesn’t mean DOGE can start changing data.
True, still not sure I am okay with a random bunch of kids, rifling through data that may be protected PIN or HIPPA information. We get all bent out of shape about surveillance systems and we have opened systems to people, no matter how smart or pedigreed, that seem to have no ethos. At least according to reporting. I am as about ok with this as I am with data breach on any data that may include my name.
Agree with previous commenter. Rando bros with literally no civil service experience or, frankly, any intent to serve the public? Hell nah, go back to your basements to trade shitcoins.
Yeoman's Work -- is an idiom that refers to difficult, valuable, and successful work, especially when it's done to help a cause or team... For example, you might describe someone's fundraising efforts as "yeoman's work." 😏😉
voters =/= investors
ppl affected by fentanyl =/= ppl not
pressure to ski lol come on, just say no
Cancel student debt now!
Cancel my mortgage now!
@@jerryyoung6494 What if I told you we could do both....
@@seangrealish8741I’d probably try throwing in my car loan and credit cards and other debt. I mean, why should any of us be responsible for our financial obligations that we willingly entered into?
Yoemans work is unskilled labor
As a fundamental analysis. The debt has to be taken care of. Tariffs help with that right?
Shout out to Liangelo Ball
🐋
📈🇺🇸
Again, there is no such thing as FREE MARKETS. Those agreements are what you can and can't export to each country. And they agree to low tariffs on many goods but ban others or put higher tariffs on many items. Trump loves tariffs because USA always wins that battle. Most all countries are dependent on trade, USA isn't so we win that battle. Trump only want reciprocal trade. He has said this many times and nobody seems to listen to his words.
I’m in Canada but to me market holds together until US earnings and US jobs don’t. Tariffs, DOGE, Trump World Takeover is the free entertainment.
Who wins?😂😂
I’m trying to figure out who Bett at the knee because every tariff that he put out there has been canceled for 30 days why well one reason I could tell you is Canada has already started taking all of its American goods off the shelves as of yesterday they didn’t wait 30 days
I feel like it’s referring to the stock market in general. My wife is scared to invest in the stock market because of the volatility. To which I replied, so let’s just stick to SPY, DIA and QQQM. Because they “always” go up😅🤷♂️
you’re welcome lefties! acommon sense MAGA americans saved the country from your destructive policies. your kids and family have been saved. 🫡
18:58 side point in government running like a business, at least for the local level. If we use the analogy that a mayor is a CEO (executive branch) and city council is a governing board (legislative branch), You can call your council member and complain about trash in the park or your bill and someone will take action.
Try getting that level of customer service with your health insurer, cable company, or wireless provider.
But I agree with Michael, I am making no investment decisions off this