Nouriel Roubini Predicts a Crisis 'Worse' Than the 1970s | Odd Lots
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- Опубликовано: 19 окт 2022
- Nouriel Roubini is known for his bearish prognostications. And unfortunately, he still doesn't see any good news on the horizon. In fact, things are going to get much worse, says the famous economist and author of the new book "MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, And How to Survive Them." He believes that due to a rolling series of supply shocks, some of which are still unfolding, we'll have a severe downturn before we get relief from inflation. Unlike the 1970s he says, high levels of private sector debt will make it harder to fight higher prices, and that central banks will reverse course as things start to break in financial markets.
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I used to find working with spreadsheets quite time-consuming and unnecessary. Instead, I would simply deposit a lump sum of money into my savings account every month and keep my spending money in a separate account, aiming to minimize expenses as much as possible.
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I like odd lots because it is one of the rare mainstream medias where the anchors don't interrupt the guests and let them finish their explaning their analysis. Topics well sought and well prepared.
I guess they get it out of their system by blathering a few minutes at the start.
@@alkriman4182 Seems accurate
I'm 78 and have been following Roubini since the 1970's. He's spot on for the purposes of most of us.
GREAT SHOW AND NOURIEL R. IS PURE GENIUS I WAS GLUED TO EVERY SECOND OF HIS TALK, EVERY SECOND....
These are the times that Nouriel Roubini shines.
dark lord.
Probably the best interview with Dr Roubini, I've ever heard. No stone left unturned, in his explaining . One thing that was not mentioned was that IF you do come out of this financially well, everyone else not-so-fortunate, will cave in your doors and take it all away during such turmoil and financial depression!
Sad that the interviewers were quite cavalier(presumably, was not old enough to have gone thru previous crises, as adults).
Dr Roubini explaining what is the only reserve currency that cannot be taken away and one of interviewers can be heard saying "Bitcoin", exposes the lack of financial wisdom that most people possess. We're in for a rude awakening, but can prepare.
How did Nouriel get the nickname 'Doctor Doom' when he is so upbeat and optimistic?
He and me prefer to call him Dr. Realist.
Obviously you don't notice what's happening
He’s been predicting this forever so eventually he had to be right.
@@KC53557 Agree
What a champion this guy is…thanks for bringing him on … made it crystal clear for me.. God Bless!😊
I will say this for Roubini, he called the 2008/9 recession when critics were calling him Dr. Doom for being an outlier. He might have it right again.
Thank You for bringing us Dr. Roubini’s analysis.
Mr roubini is the perfect gentleman to hear in the early morning. Full of joy and color🙏💐
:DDDD
When the Dollar is weak, it signals economic downturn, making me to ponder on what are the best possible ways to hedge against inflation, and I've overheard people say inflation is a money-eater thus worried about my savings. There are lots of mixed opinions about stocks and there projection in the next coming years, I aim for short term solid gains from market correction and I'd definitely jump on the boat if I knew a thing or two about day-trading. I'm just looking for the right moves to grow and hedge my stagnant reserve of $590k from inflation.
Building a good investment portfolio is more complex so I would recommend you seek out for an investment Advisor. This way you can get strategies designed to address your unique long/short-term goals and financial dreams.
I began with a fiduciary Investment advisor. Her approach is transparent allowing total ownership and control over my portfolio with fees very reasonable in comparison with my investment-income. Also, She covers things like investment insurance, making sure retirement is well funded, Go over tax advantages , ways to have a volatility buffer for investment risk and lots more. In light of honesty, been stacking up my portfolio with $ irrespective of the inflation and ongoing recession.
Johanna Mussche is her name. Look her up.
Thank you for this tip. it was easy to find your advisor. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a session with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.
Short term bonds are yielding 4% doesn't beat inflation but makes the negative impact less and there's no duration or loss of capital risk.
This is an amazing interview. Thank you!!!
He’s 100% right.
Retail has no idea what’s happening with our economy.
The bottom has yet to come
retail is least optimistic & confident in decades. AAII sentiment broke the bottom. What are you talking about?
@@user-fn2oy1rq5p Retail has been holding on to their stocks while institutions sold. That’s what I’m talking about.
Every broken clock is right atleast twice a day. This guy? Every 12-14 years?! 😭😭
put all your money in Gamestop! NOT!
When asked what Roubini would do, he said, "It's too late to do anything."
He's 100% right, the jig is up and the chickens are finally coming home to roost.
Rich people in EU and US are buing gold and mooving to Asia. They want to preserve their wealth and moove away from the collapse of the western Empire.
He got me with half of the US being literally under water in a few years from now, I expected the rest, but that was the cherry on top!
so.......that's POSITIVE news! only half!
Climate change won't cause that
@@sumthinfresh I know, Dan Pena also says no bank would finance a house if that was true, the sea levels have not even lifted a cm in over 100 years which can be verified by old photos, so there is no chance of that,but I found Nouriel's submission funny non the less.
@@RK-zo9vs sea levels not lifting?... NASA satellites report 2-4 inches rise since 1993. (not a lot, I know)
@@RK-zo9vs Sea levels are currently estimated to be rising about 3 mm per year or slightly more which would be 30 mm or 3 cm per century, or a little more than an inch per century. Of course, they have been rising most years since the end of the last ice age. If they stop rising, that is when I would start to worry.
Just paused and poured myself a bourbon at 8:00... I thought future things were looking bad, now they do look a lot worse...
Wait for the end of the interview!
@@paulocruz1544 I paused, drank the shot, then resumed and finished the video :D. Then, did put his book on my wish list.
I agree with you…Japan needs to get on board as well as the other countries who have not raised their interest rates. I like your segment with the sunglasses and mocking the dingbats.
When I get a sliver of exuberance...I just relisten to Rubini.
Scary at the same time
BTW the most important assets you are going to need to have, are going to be your knowledge, character, health and skills. You will be nowhere without them thru all this.
Very interesting Nouriel take on the BitCoin introduction by Weisenthal. They had to beep out one of the words used by Nouriel describing BitCoin.
Awesome interview. Nuriel is always impressive with his well thought out explanations.
So, invest in gold, and real estate. I would add farmland and agriculture. Gold shares are at bargain prices even now. You can also short the markets for huge profits, and buy long-term puts in many overpriced stocks such as the Fangs. Question of timing. Markets are undergoing a bear market rally but will soon top out.
fantastic interview. my only disagreement is with this contention that "1/2 of NY and FL being underwater" is a myth.
only about 1/3 of the land mass of Florida. but as a measure of population affected it is going to be close to half (for NY, 1/20th of its landmass but 60-70% of its population)
It's amazing to me to listen to the talking heads who say buy the market, while the It's clear to many that the disaster is just starting.
Many of the policies that got us hear are still underway.
Even if a non dollar-denominated asset sees no real gains during inflation that's still much better than holding cash and seeing your real purchasing power undermined. In other words, sometimes you have to chose between the lesser of two evils.
This guy is a realist. Looks like everything he mentioned is slowly coming to light.
Would love to see what Nouriel is invested in/his asset allocation.
Stocks,bonds,cash,real estate and bitcoin. Lol. Great question...I wish would throw that out there.
He only invests in cyanide stocks.
The PPI in Germany is at 46% and traditionally PPI is a lagged CPI. So Europe either will see inflation numbers of around 20% to 30% next year or companies will go bust and we will have a deep recession in Europe.
@@seanyun3984 that’s not good news for china. They’re going to be the worst off.
That’ll be brutal.
PPI has always been more volatile. On average, 1/3 of PPI ends up in CPI with a 3-months lag
@@user-fn2oy1rq5p No. US CPI and PPI are almost the same. And between 2000 and 2020 the German average PPI was around 1%.
@@AH-fm7rj no, PPI was 7.5% in 2006 and 5% in 2012 while CPU was never above 3%. There are more spikes. Look at it back to 1970 or listen to Prof. Hanns-Werner Sinn, who by no means downplays inflation or underestimated it
33:25 Joe Weisenthal was joking there, but I had the exact same thought. Everything Roubini advocated with regard to a sound financial asset/commodity is true about Bitcoin. He was literally describing Bitcoin for a minute there, but his prejudice won't allow him to see that.
As he was going on the btc maxis thought it was the alternative move then finally the said gold lol
Though the same
BTC isn't even real. It's just electrons, non physical, and end user demand is very low. It is also wildly volatile, thus a poor store of value in addition to being a so-so medium of exchange that most sellers the average consumer deals with will not accept.
On a somewhat digressive note. Normally academics have lousy microphones and internet connections. Dr. Roubini's set up is excellent.
the higher the degree, the more difficult it has been to find the "power" or "volume" buttons! FACT!
Wise words and truth
Roubini is on fire.
You want to see him go thermonuclear? Watch him go off on Bitcoin and Cryptos.
i think roubini unfortunately makes a lot of sense here. don't agree on everything but its hard to see a way through this without a lot of pain and social unrest
I appreciate that Dr Roubini has the compassion to be concerned for the 100,000 people dying from drug overdose and the 1 million addicted. Cleary this reflects a culture and a political economy that is divorced from reality and is increasingly facing the consequences of its actions. I appreciate the breadth of his analysis. I feel better informed. I was already distressed.
I always thought the "transitory" and "soft landing" schticks were either wishful thinking or just mega-BS.
Wow!! The problem here is that most people won't accept this perspective. Especially the conclusion from 37:00 onwards.
Democracy can never take the pain , keep printing.
The scary thing isn't that he is so negative, it's that what he's saying is quite obvious and makes a lot of sense.
He is more of a "realist" as he likes to put it.
True, what he said is very plausible, not like something out of the mouth of internet doomers.
It sounds like stuff is about to hit the fan.....
Always listened to odd lots podcast. First time watching video. It felt weird. Lol
Curious, the only crisis I remember in the seventies was being drafted into the Vietnam atrocity....we had gas lines for a few months...I remember that ...not exactly a crisis.....we worked hard and life was good!!!! This is Sunday entertainment for the depressed.....go meet some friends...do something with your family ..this guy is a bad joke...... crisiiiiiiis!!!!!! Fear ..worry!!!!!
Many great points from Roubini and the Doomsday market scenarios. Counterpoint would be do not discount the resilience of the US markets and economy. When I am about to tighten the chinstrap of my perma-bear helmet, I remember a great quote that goes something like, "The markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent." Great show Tracy & Joe!
Great Interview,the girl get anxiety hearing this guy. Thanks
Love how the otro uses the same music as Spongebob
Move to St. Louis and Minneapolis! Or invest in Midwestern real estate. Also, this video made me decide to buy a inverse etf on the S&P.
Why St. Louis?
I love when these really smart guys get 99.9% of this stuff right but overlook Bitcoin because they refuse to understand the advancement of technology. I agree with everything he says minus his take on Bitcoin.
Roubini rocks! Pure, undiluted gloom & doom. Not a glimmer of hope. He shoots down all the bulls with a volley after volley of bearish bullet points.
lol, well said.
this is the GOOD news. wait till he starts the realy BAD stuff.
I think the title of doctor doom is unjustified, he's merely being objective with his economic analysis.
Europe has Italy, France and the other southern European countries that have misallocated debt-financed public consumption for decades without being stopped with reference to the Growth and Stability Pact. There will come a day when this behavior will stop and the bill will have to be paid. I can't help but think about what is happening in the UK in the past few weeks and they are in better economic shape than Italy and France. It seems that Italy and France are fighting to be the biggest victims in the name of solidarity in the hope of being entitled to additional EU's common debt. It just postpones the problems. I would guess that less than 3% of the population in Northern Europe follows the development in the EU. The day it becomes clear what is at stake, it will not be taken lightly.
Even worse, they have Spain. The new crash will likely come from Spain's bankruptcy as it struggles to fill its colossal public pension hole. The ECB keeps on fueling the fiscal excess. Spain (like France and Italy) are to big to fail, nothing compared to Greece. The UK made history with Brexit, we could see a large economy being kicked out of the Euro to prevent the collapse of all the other Eurozone economies. The one with less bargaining power and less influence within the UE could be taking the shorter straw, and that is Spain.
@@DeOmnibusDubitandum76 You can add to that that a large part of private home financing is at variable interest rates. I'm not sure, but I believe the proportion is about 3/4.
The truth is sometimes harsh
Dr Doom gets an upgrade to Dr Armageddon
Roubini invites predictable but certainly not unfair scepticism, but things ain't looking rosy at the moment regardless of his opinion.
The whole problem will go away if the production comes back to the west. For that central banks should tolerate inflation of around 6% for couple of years and keep the rates low.
Import taxes (tariffs) could bring production back to the states without high inflation.
You could interview this guy today, or in 50 years if alive. And he would warn every time about stagflation, shocks, and recession.
if you keep repeating the same theory over long period of time you might be right at some point
@@alexcipriani6003 Broken Clock
when fed was easing post gfc & covid roubini wasnt bearish at the stock market or housing. Hez not peter schiff. U m8 think he is dr.doom all the time but hez dr.realist
No, he was correct in predicting what would happen when the fed kept cutting rates. He said that the markets would go up, (correct), but said it was the wrong policy, and the fed was just kicking the can down the road on real problems. People focused on the second half, with him saying "the Fed got it wrong", and that he was incorrect because markets went up... except he has been proven correct on all fronts. The Fed wimping out and cutting rates was wrong. Markets getting a temporary boost - that was correct. And now the Fed having to eat their words... all correct. You need to listen to what he says, not what the two second sound bite labelling him as "Dr Doom" says.
not true. Are u crazy! It's really really bad. Wait till tactical nukes go off.
He’s the new Jimmy Rogers. He will pop up with every down cycle preaching doom. LOL!
Dr. Doom. Its the most sobering interview. I think wimping out is on a spectrum though. The Fed wimped out in 2019 because it was pre-COVID, no inflation at the time. Could you wimp out with little or moderate consequence, sure. If you wimp out now, its a bad stagflation and possible run away inflation of the world reserve currency, that would really be a crisis. You could wimp out a little and maybe get away with it and thread the needle, maybe. To be too hawkish, maybe could lead to deflationary depression. People who have money keep the value of their money. I think, unfortunately, we need to pay the piper and the massive debt needs to be resolved. I think high taxes, maybe one time wealth taxes for the ultra rich, forcing the ultra rich to buy very low interest rate bonds or zero interest bonds, increasing capital gains tax, could be innovative solutions to decrease deficits for the country. It would be unprecedented but the slight suffering of the 1%, who would still be fabulously wealthy, would save the world.
better to be prepared than sorry
I think he's right!!
Roubini didn’t hold back
He lost me on the Florida going underwater part.
Been here 40 years. And the water level hasn't moved a millimeter yet.
I thought I saw videos of salty water up to your shins on the streets
We must have lived there in two different 40 years then. Ever been to Delray...? King tides are somehow much higher now than 1987...
In that case you're living on another planet
You don't know that Miami/southern Florida is going under water yet? You live under the rock?
Lol gotta love his motivation
Economists have such great track records for these things... 😉
It s always easıer to see a bubble. But what s hard to see ıs take off 🤗 Why because one ıs sıgnıfıcant, the other ıs not at all.
This guy is nuts with climate change. If Florida is going to be underwater in 20 years no insurance company would cover anything there. He is off his rocker
Lmao reading this in 2023😂
Remember in 2019 when fed pivoted .. inflation was not at 8% but at 2%.
He predicted 5 of the last 2 recessions... slightly biased on the downside wouldn't you say?
Agree with most points except the climate predictions - economists and financiers should stay in their lane and leave predictions on sea levels to the experts in that field.
Right. I've nothing against them studying things outside their own field, but he obviously knows nothing serious about the subject, just the usual Greta Thunberg talking points.
The ultimate contrarian indicator.
Um...wow. Sadly, I agree with Roubini's analysis. The painful consequences - economic, political, social, environmental - of incentivized short sightedness and our collective hubris are inevitable. Slow at first, then all at once.
Inflation, the policy that dare not speak its name.
Only 15m into the video and I need a drink!
In 1990s US inflation was subdued because the low cost manufacturing of products from China. Somehow Paul Volcker was given the credit.
The recently passed IRA (sic) is throwing lots of $$$ at many and large sustainable energy construction projects. It seems to me this will be highly stimulative to our under-used industrial sector -- pipes, valves, pumps, metals, welds, electricity, battery and semi plants, and so on. Lots of jobs and trickle down to main street prosperity. Safety net for pain of higher rates? Thoughts welcome.
Yup but you are then facing off against the rich who are practically creating a private equity bubble in those firms (or so I hear). Or sorry, I think you were talking about industrial manufacturers - you're probably right.
this is basically a fck you to investors… so pretty good stuff
Lmao
Nourie, I see he's still at it. Well, maybe one day, his "prediction" will be right.
I'm buying commodities like lithium,coal ,gold and natural gas ,lng then appartment REITs . Finally walmart and McDonald's stock are a pretty safe bet.Cross your fingers
What can I say? The good doctor could make even extreme optimists want to slash their wrists.
Dam. The Fed is going to wimp out and it's going to piss me off.
Wonder what will happen when due to dollar appreciation the same crisis comes to Eurozone. Literally going to prove to be the end of the 🌎.
Only solution I can see is a general hair-cut which is applied to everyone. We all wake up one morning and we've all had a general hair-cut on financial assets e g. savings and pensions
Interesting, but what about real assets? I feel it is unfair to focus on fiancial assets.
If he is right, this time the Fed will not survive...
Great to hear from a real bear 🐨
Koalas are marsupials
They don't call him Dr Doom for nothing
We're Doomed. 😂
this quack economist apparently is unable to find energy company profit margin levels and blames fiscal policy. when energy prices blow up, all goods blow up, since energy is required for the entire economy
This can be broken down further, without Roubini’s bias. The choice is raising rates to save capitalism creating a stagflationary debt spiral, or allowing inflation to reduce debt while safeguarding the wellbeing of the working and middle class. He advocates for the former, but that would also lead to democratic failure and fascism. The later destroys financial value by ending long-term investment. But the later reduces economic activity and can be a path to solving the energy dilemma while safeguarding the biosphere. We can resolve the ‘energy - environment - ecology’ trilemma if low rates are used to build a sustainable ecological civilization. Capital can be used now while it has value to build a system where nature not capital is at the centre; we need to restore natural cycles, not economic cycles. This option is far fetched, but it is best. It is also foreclosed if everything else is sacrificed to capitalism. We’re at a literal fork in the road and have to choose wisely.
"laissez faire policies" - what laissez faire policies? America has one of the most over regulated economies in the world. That is one reason investors prefer to start businesses abroad and export to the US rather than start their new firms here.
But what if MMT is actually a viable strategy? Won't the positive long-term growth of the U.S., China, India, Nigeria, etc. win out in the end?
everything is fine
The Wall takes no prisoners.
@29:30 Good until climate change. Passing that comment over, please keep going Nouriel.
Will the bond market collapse????
When Dr. Doom gives his perspective, spooky... geez imagine bringing him as a Halloween guest 🤔🤯
He was probably way overbooked for Halloween shows, so they had to have him on more than a week early.
So when nouriels etf I'm in
This is not the 10% + inflation of the 1970s and we now have flexible interest rates. Things will be better than the economists say. A blip not a block.
Wait a couple of years when Greenland thaws completely!!
live a simple life with few needs or wants and no debts
Over 250,000 new job hires each month. Recession? What Recession Nouriel? Over 250,000 new jobs each month? What Recession?
80% of these jobs are part time crap that will not put a roof over your head.
GOLD CALLS........GOLD CALLS.........OMG.