Holy F*CK... Worse Than Recession?
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- Опубликовано: 27 апр 2024
- Stock Market Crash, Market Crash, Bear Market, SP500, SPY Stock, QQQ Stock
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I foresee a recession lasting 2-3 years, and if inflation continues to surge, the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates soon. Inflation is causing various issues worldwide, such as food shortages, scarcities of diesel and heating fuel, and significant spikes in housing prices, leading to a potential financial market crash. This global downturn could have long-lasting repercussions. Given the current inflation rate of approximately 9%, my main worry is how to optimize my savings and retirement fund, which has remained stagnant at around $300,000, yielding almost no gains for quite some time.
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I’m sure the idea of an invstment-Adviser might sound controversial to a few, but a new study by Motley-fool found out that demand for Financial-Advisers sky-rocketed by over 42% since the pandemic and based on firsthand encounter I can say for certain their skillsets are topnotch. I've accrued north of 580k within 16-months from an initially stagnant Portf0lio worth 85k.
Inflation is over 10% here in the UK, but as we know it's definitely way more than the Government would like to admit. My plan is to earn more passive income and ride this out, can your Investment-adviser assist?
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Marisa Michelle Litwinsky” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
What’s worse than a recession? A depression.
Trust me stagflation is way worse, imagine rising prices and no job
@@Ro-nu7vv just steal like the reggies do!
Jerome already told you last year PAIN PAIN PAIN! People have zero retention these days chasing the carrot thats dangling in front of them.
Great point.
Exactly...
What's often not mentioned... Complacency is at Extremes as well.
Dip buyers couldn't buy it up fast enough last week.
Danger.
Higher for longer
So eggs 🥚 and butter 🧈 $20 each 🥺😑😡
All the politicians need to go get a real job
sp500 should be at 4100. thats where it was when powell promised 7 rate cuts. the sp500 rallied 1100 pts on that promise. now no rate cuts. the market should give back those 1100 pts !
This is the most underrated comment here! Few understand this.
Jerome never ever said anything about cutting rates 7 times analysts on wallstreet said that.
The great transfer of wealth.
from taxpayer pockets to Wall Street & DC Swamp.
The most important question, how did they over come stagflation in the 70s/80s? They raised interest rates over 20% and were able to drive the economy into a recession. It would of stayed that way for decades however we got lucky and the tech boom pulled us out. We'll need a new industry to pull us out again.
for a new industry to possibly save us. Won't be happening unfortunately, new revolutionairy or state of the art tech advancements is definitely something to expect to possibly aid in the pulling out, espicially when the biotech sector can manage to get it's shit together as a whole and start positively progressing, but nothing in tech could pull us out, on a worldwide economic standpoint.. we'd more realistically need a miracle. Idk. Anyone who's planning on making a career in the next generation of trading and is serious about it already knows to expect nothing but hell lol
AI
@@respairfulamerica is about to experience karma
@@Anomaly66666 No. they won’t. But that’s ok. We know how these monopolies end, and I’d say China’s still functional.
@@respairful so they get away with destroying the world?
Consumer demand is still high (reason market didn't dump with the headline numbers) and year of year inflation is down, not stagflation yet. Stagflation calls are hyperbolic at this point.
Don’t worry, I have been tracking tnx and tlt for a while and they finally hit their reversal target area. Will go down Wed for Powell, but I think he’ll have good news (according to the chart setup). We’ll see👀
If you are implying TLT is a good go long... I must disagree with you. I think Bonds are about to get distorted. Outlook 1 to 5 years. If you time horizion is a few weeks you will most likely do okay. Just be careful and be very close to the exit. At some point folks are going to demand a higher yield to lend the US Government money. This will cause yields to go up not down.... contrary to what most people think. Could I be wrong? Of course i just think that is senerio is very probable.
One of the best RUclipsrs been subscribed for quite some time. I don’t trade off the info but the news is great.
great information. thanks. time to make more money.
You bet!
how does gold and silver do in stagflation
The way the BSLS reports unemployment; We will never have high unemployment!
Thank you Justin for putting out such a solid and informative video !
Maybe this is common sense but it has felt like they are doing anything they can to keep afloat until elections are over. Thats why we had recession redefined and stopped rate hiking even though they should have kept going like they have in the past.
So, finally what will happen tomorrow?
Appreciate this information
Glad it was helpful!
So the question id like to know is will you be selling all your stocks and shares? or move it to other areas.
Coution people are out for months, Warren Buffet is sitting on a pile of cash. If you depend on day trade you have no option and actualy does not matter if the market goes up or down or sideways...you play with what you got.
HAHAHAHA you killing me with that zoom on powel face 👺👺
There is a lot of gaps to fill if the s&p breaks below 200 dma. Look out below!
There's no recession until companys start layoffs
The Fed is pointing to the stock market as success of their policies when people should look at everything else but the stock market.
we are in end times, every week, doom approaches!
@@AMP98765 but this crash will bring about the end of the world as we know it
@@AMP98765
Read Ezekiel 7
35 Trillian dollar debt and Russia and China are dumping the USD at the fastest rate since the creation of the BRINKS nations. More alarming is economists warn it is IMPOSSIBLE for the USA to service their debt already, never mind the prospect of having to fun a world war. It's clear the outcome is bleak. Very bleak!! The term between a rock and a hard place.
Wasn’t it supposed to end with the eclipse? Total eclipse of the heart!
Let's just get it over with I am over it already
Stagflation and recession = Gold/silver up. Thanks for another great show! Do you think Canada will cut before the US? Also, how will Yellen's liquidity injection this week affect the market?
First Gold pull back, then up
where do i buy and trade gold
@@AXLL127 Maybe...looks like copper doesn't agree unless there is a black swan event planned for the olympic year
@@MrInfoPhilly Maybe...looks like copper doesn't agree unless there is a black swan event planned for the olympic year
@@AXLL127 buy physical gold not paper. It is not something you trade until you need to use it for currency. In the meantime you can play in the casino with paper gold...gld or slv (silver) or gold mining stocks.
This is truly shocking. I knew I should've listened to Peter Schiff.
Thanks much, good stuff!
Shoot I hope bonds go up. That means rates have peaked and stocks will continue up.
Monday do you think we are bullish
Come hang out with me at 915am ET tomorrow and we'll walk through it together ruclips.net/video/AJ85ThALtRQ/видео.html
shit will hit the fan on Wednesday, but I agree it will be bullish for Monday and tueday due to the fuel of AI hype.
I’ve been hearing the Markets going to crash since 2019 your very informative and we appreciate you about the awareness of what’s going on but just let us know “ Hey Hedge & be mindful “ rather than be every other content creator to scare investors.. if it drops GOOD BTFD
Hey I hit that like button but what you have just discussed in your video is the reason why I have recently been stacking Silver and gold
I'm confused 😬... the section of the video at 6.47 where the feds / pivot on interest rates leads to the markets going down by large percentages.... everybody is screaming out for lower interest rates but I've heard this said before that the pivot would lead to a crash.
It is the reason behind why the fed is lowering rates that is the problem. At this level of inflation the only reason the fed pivots significantly is if we face some kind of large problem in the markets.
@@chipshiner2371 gotcha.... so if they lower rates because inflation is back to normal lvls (2%) then we are ok but if he is forced to lower rates while inflation is stil not under control then we are likely to lead to one of the scenarios where the markers "crash"
Ya if they drop rates before we hit 2% it signals the market the fed knows something bad we don’t know so sell before you find out the hard way.
You got it.
The most accurate of all financial signals is the reinversion of the 3 month / 10 year yeild curve. I has an almost perfect record or predicting recession and depressions. The current yield inversion has broken the record for the longest in history. The Fed cutting rates is a bearish event not a bullish one. Look at chart. Any chart of any of the major indexes. Look what happens to them after the inversion reinverts. In about 2 to 4 weeks the crash comes and usually they are bad ones. This happens because the Fed is trying to save the market from an economic slowdown. The cutting of rates is supposed to stimulate. But the Fed is always late and the damage at that point is already done. One of the more significant problems this go around is the debt levels they are so high that if they cut too soon we still get a crash and then we get hyperinfation or to be more exact stagflation like the US has never seen. That is the worst case senerio and IMHO what is coming. The other problem is that Yellen and Congress are doing QE while Jerome Powell is doing QT. Everyone thinks that what the FED does matters and that is true but what congress and yellen do is just as important. Those are called fiscial and monitary decisions. I recommend to study both of those. So in effect while the Fed has been tightening and congress has be loosening ... they are fighting each other... that is why infaltion is still going up not down. At some point the debt levels get to high, and we blow the dollar up and EVERYTHING doubles in price. Scary stuff.
California tech sector provides the unemployment factor to support stagflation ?
It's very hard to navigate these markets. After 16 years of trading, i can tell you caution rules the day. You must take profits. Charts don't lie, but manipulators do. Banks and governments collude, and the middle class gets screwed.
You’re right. I’m glad I no longer contributing into a 401k. Back in the day people invested for their future. Now it’s all quick profit taking. If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em. Friday I sold off most of my portfolio for profit, my entire large position in MSFT and I’m currently repositioning my large cap growth ETF. Holding 50% in cash. I still have a decent position in NVDA, but we know why that is. Once we get a sell off into or after the election I’ll start DCA’ing my way back in. At least that’s the plan.
Target was basically carried by tech earnings last week. So yeah, it's not exactly looking good.
Omg Justin! Your views are getting quite up there! The beautiful people have spoke “we L😍VE Justin!”
sooo you buy a short position for a bit money and if you lose everything due to stagflation this position will save you
Downtrend is still here, but earnings will supply relief. But expect fear and sell offs
Red = discount rate
Any shockwaves from the Federal First bank failure?
Tiny bank, do not think so = already in new owner's hands
its yields going up so doesnt that mean bonds are going down? intro?
Hong Kong bitcoin ETF starts trading on Tuesday April 30th
Persistent inflation but not “High”. For me 3.5%+ is High inflation. Below 3% is moderate
Foreign equities is the place to be for the foreseeable future - trust me.
😂😂😂
Well I would say a wide diversified portfolio is stil king. And maybe little underweight in Tech...
Rents are not going down. I am an x-landlord currently selling off my properties. I had 29, down to 5 as of today (2 under contract) - buying stocks and etfs with proceeds. The number 1 reason why costs of rent went up is because building material costs went up. 52 inch blade ceiling fans were $69 and now they're $109. Sand was $3 and now it is $6. Metal brackets were $0.80 and now they're $4. Etc. Rent at the old rates is literally not profitable in today's market. 8% inflation is a joke. Inflation on contraction material is a minimum of 50% on literally everything and 100%+ on about 70% of materials.
thank you for sharing!
Building materials are Not the reason rents have gone up.
And elevated rents are not a recent phenomenon.
The pandemic just forced places that weren't seeing crazy rent spikes yet to finally see them.
Rents have gone up due to greedy landlords and lack of housing.
It's a supply issue.
If you owned 29 rentals long term, why would the cost of sand doubling force you to double your rents?
It wouldn't.
@@t.tomantasaur9399 construction materials are the #1 reason rent has gone up. landlords do not run not for profit homeless shelters. landlords are in it for the profit.
The goal used to be to buy a property for 100x or less whatever the landlord believes the rent value will be. It is called the 1% rule. As time goes along, the value of rent would go up hopefully in line with everything else. 10% to property management, 10% to normal repairs, 10% to cap ex repairs, 10% to taxes and insurance, 10% to vacancies, 50% is divided between mortgage and profit.
I'm worried unemployment IS high- or rather, very high underemployment. When they say n-number of jobs created, are they functioning as full time jobs, is compensation pacing inflation? Based on all the negative sentiment from both employers and job seekers I'm worried real employment numbers are being masked (because metrics are not holistic), or intentionally downplayed (because it's an election year).
Banks bought bonds at 0% what happens to them
If yeilds go up, like I think they will folks (not just banks) holding bonds long are going to get their faces ripped off. TLT holders are a great example. Pull a weekly chart of that bad boy and overlay a 200 simple moving average on it. The bond market is in serious trouble right here right now IMHO.
We had stagflation for a while now.
The sad thing is that inflation that is sticking around simply isnt responding to higher rates. It might actually ease up when they drop rates a small amount because liquidity is needed before more home sellers enter the market. Until that happens expect that part of the inflation equation to be sticky. Food prices will continue to inflate because the costs and risk are going up. For those that haven't been paying attention bird flu is going to kill off a massive amount of the chickens in the world AND its likely to have a decent impact to other livestock operations. The other operations aren't likely to lose the whole herd, but they will see increased costs to prevent that. All of that will either be increased costs being passed on or a demand of increased revenues for the added risks they are taking.
If you people can’t see the coming Great Depression, I can’t help you.
Be ready to be greedy when people start talking about fear
I wonder if traders have calendars with photos of Jerome, like truck drivers have calendars with bimbos 📆
Dca into your favorite ETF’s in automatic pilot and hold long term …..we’ll be fine 🤞
What if they just increase the interest rates
They won’t. Barry won’t allow it.
FDR quote: “The only thing to fear….”
It used to be called economic collapse
Cutting rates mean stonks go higher!!
Love hearing someone that isn't trying to make others bag holders and exit liquidity. I'll have my chips and dip ready for Powell's speech and expecting him to be wearing a red tie
DXY is making that bull flag now
We do have unemployment growing when you exclude part time jobs
3 part-time jobs = 1 full-time job
you should do a live analysis on Wednesday
I'm long my short and miners
Stagflation is sticky inflation.
u need to put more red on the tumbnail
Fine. I own both stocks and bonds via ladders.
I fear that folks that own stock and bonds are getting ready to have their faces ripped off. I think what comes next is a liquidity, collateral, and credit crisis all at the same time. Nothing is going to be spared. When? When the yield curve reinverts. That is all we are waiting on now. Probably happen late summer early fall. And election years don't save us from recessions or depressions, there have been plenty that started in election years.
Stagflation is much , much worse than a depression . Wach out every one , don't spend any money for a year .
I’m really really scared
Man, the bots are zeroed in on your comments section today.
❤
What r u talking about? Tlt is down 6% in the last month😂
Yeilds up, TLT down.
I just keep making money. The older I get, the easier it is.
Yet QQQ keeps pumping
Either way, will always make so much money trading stocks daily! up or down!
if you put everything in bonds you will destroy your wealth.
Tom Lee, perma bull
👍
Gold is going to 3700 by 2026. Inflation always feeds through to it and this time will be no different
Glad I some in my teeth. My dentist said he wanted to remove them and I said Hell No.
@@jaym9846😂
Hope we get a 100% correction SQQQ will be 💰💰💰😂
We are not going through stagflation. We have a war going on with oil being bombed shit going on in Israel. That’s what’s causing the inflation. I could be wrong but for atleast the next three weeks to a month semiconductors will push the market up. Seems like you have a short position lol.
Right……. Delusional much?
So it has nothing to do with printing money, or the extra money people got to stay home.
It is the recent war
😂😂😂😂
This has been happening since the end of 2023, youre actually just ignorant of all the signs that have happened. Have you checked the conference board index by any chance? gdi? anything? do you really think this war, which wouldve been bullish after a few weeks, caused INFLATION?! Get another job
Lmao yeah because war is the only thing moving the markets
I bought SQQQ
Good for you. I have a MASSIVE postition in SQQQ and SRTY. The higher the market goes the more I get. Please do understand that they do eat themselves... meaning everyday they reset so they can track the daily percentages. I think SQQQ is going to go to at least $500 if we get lucky $1000. Hedge fund and money managers cannot directly short the market these are the instruments they will use to do so. Which means if we get a crash they will be meme like and surge like crazy. I am willing to lose all that money if I am wrong. Which of course is possible.
So there is a high interest rate environment , high interest rate environment is supposed to slow down the economy..
Economy slowing down , people freaking out 😂
Does no one understand what is the purpose and effect of higher interest rates? 😂
just buy some NVDA and COIN and PLTR and you will be fine for 2024.
📉😮📉
Y'all F'd, Get A Replicator, Never Run Out Of Anything.
stagflation is not worse. Just push it to recession. Easy.
Bear market
I bet on 80%, that dollar will get denominated like i 2008-09. 2 years of crisis and then again few years of gloom. Yield curve Godzilla is ready to show up it's power, like always in history. 😁
🎉❤
I guess Im not retiring anytime soon. Get ready for another draconian Republican Trickle Down administration.
S&P 500 to $6200.
2025 Look the Fuck Out〽
Stop spreading fears
yellen will drown out whatever he says
If you are correct and she and congress are successful by keeping on with their stealth QE the dollar goes to zero. Then what? Same exact thing. Just worse look what happened to Germany before WWII. Looks like we are getting a very similar set up ... even the possible next president looks to be very Hitler like. Americans are so uneducated in this stuff that I think that senerios is not only possible but probable. Wonderful.
What a load of bs
👻👻👻👻👻
Fema camps ?
wym?
😂
Internment camps!!!
Livin in a socialist paradise……
Think it's gonna be that bad? This year?
Stagflation was coined to describe the situation in the 1970s. It's not a good way to describe what's happening now.
I think it's a more favorable (delusional) diagnosis than debt trap!
In the 1970s there was wage led inflation in combination with slow(ish) economic growth and low debts.
Now, we have rent seeking and profiteering led inflation with high debts and slow economic growth.
The solutions of the 1970s (a Volcker shock) isn't going to have the same effect.
What we need is systemic reform, wage led inflation, and a reduction in debts.
Monetary measures of the economy (such as GDP) don't respond well to this kind of systemic reform.
This doesn't mean that real measures can't improve simultaneously.
Monetarism is failing on a policy level, and on the level of analysis. It's the debts that tell you when that's going to happen.
If you subscribe to this channel do you get a tin foil hat with your initials?
if you ask nicely
May I have one please@@StocksToday
@@StocksToday please
Those that wear tin foil hats appear to be a bit crazy, until they are proven correct, then they are hailed as a genius.
@@bpb5541 A broken clock is correct twice a day. Bear analysts have been calling for the market to crash yearly for 20 years. No one thinks they are a genius.
Armagado
Half the youtube analysts are bullish and half are bearish. SOH. I'm biased bullish but not willing to lose money guessing.
🥱 same ol same ol blah blah blah pfft
Thumbs down. We don’t need fear mongering. Markets do what markets do. If someone tells you they know what is going to happen, stay away. Stocks can go up and equally true they can go down.
Oh yeah, everything is just amazing, the consumer is strong. NVIDIA is not the economy
Is it fear mongering if you can profit from it? Just start loading up on shorts if things get worse, if not business per usual
@@adamj8385For many it is, at least this year.
Reality is fear mongering now?
Half of the world is at war or planning war. Too many people in the united states can't even afford to live now. Our government is giving other countries money for their warfaring. But don't look over there.... Nothing to see there....😅
I don't know about you, but I'm feeling pretty good about this "Bidenomics" thing.
Yes!🇺🇸 Biden Harrison 2024🤢🤮
we will crash again, if your new just hold, i know the fear but hold...keep voting for democrats and we continue this down trend and faceplant at 100 mhp